CN103927692B - A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure - Google Patents
A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure Download PDFInfo
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- CN103927692B CN103927692B CN201410103179.3A CN201410103179A CN103927692B CN 103927692 B CN103927692 B CN 103927692B CN 201410103179 A CN201410103179 A CN 201410103179A CN 103927692 B CN103927692 B CN 103927692B
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure, include the following steps: to construct route danger source occurrence Probability Model Γ { T, αk, k=1,2 ..., 12, β }, wherein route danger source occurrence Probability Model includes parameter danger Source Type T, leads to the line fault type β of danger source and each monthly probability of happening α in yeark,k=1,2,...,12；Determine that the probability of happening E of a kind of failure occurs for section route1:Determine that the probability of happening E of two class failures occurs for section route2:Utilize the probability of happening E of a kind of failure1With the probability of happening E of two class failures2Determine the security risk state of route.A kind of advantages of the present invention: transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure of the invention, combined circuit failure cost, which is realized, on the basis of establishing route risk source occurrence Probability Model assesses transmission line safety risk status, provides aid decision data to line inspection job placement by assessment result.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Power System Analysis field more particularly to a kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedures.
Background technique
With socio-economic development and the expansion of electricity consumption scale, power transmission network scale is also being sharply increased, especially high pressure
Transmission line of electricity scale is big, while transmission line of electricity local environment is increasingly complicated, and the factor for influencing transmission line safety operation has ground
The features such as domain property, seasonality, randomness, so that transmission line of electricity guaranteed reliability is a problem.Electric power O&M ensures department simultaneously
It is limited to human cost, the tour to transmission line of electricity cannot be comprehensively realized in time, cause transmission line safety risk that can not obtain
To effective control, transmission line safety accident also gradually increases.It is therefore desirable to realize the security risk state to transmission line of electricity
It is effectively assessed, is badly in need of carrying out on the route maked an inspection tour to support to put into limited human cost, evades route peace in time
Full blast danger, improves the reliability of transmission line of electricity.
The various aspects of performance for newly throwing transmission line of electricity in recent years is fully considered in the design phase, so that transmission line of electricity is certainly
The ability that body resists natural calamity is greatly enhanced.Currently, patrolling transmission line is generally " aerial according to DL/T741-2010
Transmission line of electricity operating standard " it executes, periodical inspection is carried out with the mensal period, making an inspection tour section is completely.Periodical inspection exists
It grasps each component operation of route and situation aspect has played due effect along the line, but with the rapid development of economy, route is long
Continuous increase of degree forms a pair of more sharp contradiction with the understaffing of tour personnel, and original all fronts periodical inspection has seemed
It is incompatible.Some electrical power O&M ensures that department proposes the tour of the line status based on empirical criteria thus, utilizes artificial warp
Whether the affiliated section of ontological property, route, the route for testing combined circuit go out the line characteristics such as lightning strike area to transmission line status
It is classified, recycles classification results guidance to make an inspection tour work, achieve certain effect.But due to line state evaluation completely according to
Rely the qualitative marking in artificial experience, it is larger for different transmission line of electricity marking randomness, lack generalization.
Summary of the invention
The present invention exactly in view of the deficiencies of the prior art, provides a kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the technical solution that the present invention realizes is as follows:
A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure includes the following steps: to construct route danger source probability of happening
Model Γ { T, αk, k=1,2 ..., 12, β }, wherein route danger source occurrence Probability Model includes parameter danger Source Type T, leads
Cause each monthly probability of happening α in the line fault type β and year of danger sourcek, k=1,2 ..., 12, the line fault type
β points are a kind of failure and two class failures.
Transmission line of electricity is in different sections, including dangerous Source Type T it is different, danger source is in each monthly probability of happening αk,k
=1,2 ..., 12 is true by the average statistical of the corresponding monthly probability of happening of danger Source Type T and line fault type β in database
It is fixed.
(1) determine that the probability of happening E of a kind of failure occurs for section1:
The probability of happening E of a kind of failure1Are as follows:
Wherein, N is the sum for the danger source that will lead to a kind of failure that the section includes, f (Γk) it is k-th of danger source
The probability of happening of current month, f (Γk) calculation method it is as follows:
Wherein CM is current month, and SM is that line last makes an inspection tour month.
(2) the probability of happening E of two class failures is determined2:
The probability of happening E of two class failures2Are as follows:
Wherein M is the sum for the danger source that will lead to two class failures that the section includes, f (Γk) it is that k-th of danger source is worked as
The probability of happening in preceding month, processing when calculation method such as a kind of failure.
(3) a kind of fault rate E is utilized1With two class fault rate E2Determine the security risk state of route:
Route one kind fault rate E1With two class fault rate E2Value range be [0,1], calculate E1With
E2Afterwards, it is first depending on E1The security risk state for determining route, is defined as follows:
According to a kind of fault rate E1, the security risk state for calculating route is in attention state, abnormality or
Person's severe conditions, the security risk state of outlet line.
According to a kind of fault rate E1, the security risk state for calculating route is in general state, then according to two classes
Fault rate E2The security risk state for determining route, is defined as follows:
According to two class fault rate E1, the security risk state of route is calculated, according to logic judgment as a result, output line
The security risk state on road.
As advanced optimizing for above scheme, line fault type β caused by the danger source point for a kind of failure and
Two class failures, it is characterised in that: one kind failure is that cause the failure of great damage include line tripping, human casualty accident,
The two classes failure is the failure of influence electric service, including line voltage distribution shakiness and line voltage distribution.
As advanced optimizing for above scheme, the security risk state of the route include general state, attention state,
Abnormality and severe conditions.
As advanced optimizing for above scheme, the danger Source Type T includes that general danger source and section are in difference
The catastrophe risk source of geographic area.
As advanced optimizing for above scheme, the general danger source is more than 3 months, equipment state including the time of putting into operation
Evaluate poor, line voltage distribution grade height.
As advanced optimizing for above scheme, the catastrophe risk source that the section is in different geographic regions includes being in
Set bamboo speed area special sector danger source, in vulnerable to external force destruction area special sector danger source, be in the multiple area of bird pest
Special sector danger source, the special sector danger source in flooded area, special sector in unfavorable geology area it is dangerous
Source, the special sector danger source in heavy icing area and the special sector danger source that area is easily waved in conducting wire.
A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure of the invention is establishing route risk source occurrence Probability Model
On the basis of combined circuit failure cost realize to transmission line safety risk status assess, by assessment result to line inspection
Job placement provides aid decision data.In time grasp route operation conditions, in time find route ontology, affiliated facility and
The defect or hidden danger that route protection area occurs, and foundation is provided for line maintenance, maintenance and state evaluation etc..
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure of the invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments, right
The present invention is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that described herein, specific examples are only used to explain the present invention, not
For limiting the present invention.
A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure builds line fault and the source of failure referring to Fig. 1
Mould is lost with indicating different line security risk source and the risk to line security bring.
Step 1, building route danger source occurrence Probability Model Γ { T, αk, k=1,2 ..., 12, β }, wherein route is dangerous
Source occurrence Probability Model includes parameter danger Source Type T, leads to the line fault type β of danger source and each monthly generation in year
Probability αk,k=1,2,...,12。
The line fault type β points are a kind of failure and two class failures, and one kind failure is to cause the event of great damage
Barrier includes line tripping, human casualty accident, and the two classes failure is to influence the failure of electric service, including line voltage distribution is unstable
And line voltage distribution.
Transmission line of electricity is in different sections, including dangerous Source Type T it is different, danger source is in each monthly probability of happening
αk, k=1,2 ..., 12 by the corresponding monthly probability of happening of danger Source Type T and line fault type β in database
Average statistical determine.The monthly probability of happening wherein stored in data of the present invention is according to Anhui Province Tongling Area 2008-2013
Statistical data between year determines.
In transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure of the invention, the risk source of section by average risk source and by
Specific geographic position and bring abnormal risk source two parts composition locating for section.
The general danger source include put into operation the time be more than 3 months, equipment state evaluation is poor, line voltage distribution grade height.Area
The general danger source definition of section, referring to table 1.
Table 1
The catastrophe risk source that the section is in different geographic regions includes that the special sector in tree bamboo speed area is dangerous
Source, in the special sector danger source vulnerable to external force destruction area, the special sector danger source in the multiple area of bird pest, be in flood
Wash away the special sector danger source, the special sector danger source in unfavorable geology area, the special sector danger in heavy icing area in area
Dangerous source and the special sector danger source that area is easily waved in conducting wire.Section is in the catastrophe risk source definition point of different geographic regions
It is not as follows:
1. the special sector danger source definition in tree bamboo speed area, referring to table 2.
Table 2
2. being defined in the special sector danger source vulnerable to external force destruction area, referring to table 3.
Table 3
3. the special sector danger source in the multiple area of bird pest defines, referring to table 4.
Table 4
4. the special sector danger source in flooded area defines, referring to table 5.
Table 5
5. the special sector danger source in unfavorable geology area defines, referring to table 6.
Table 6
6. the special sector danger source in heavy icing area defines, referring to table 7.
Table 7
7. the special sector danger source definition in area is easily waved in conducting wire, referring to table 8.
Table 8
A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure of the invention utilizes danger source probability of happening defined above
Model determines that section occurs the probability of happening E1 of a kind of failure and the probability of happening E2 of two class failures occurs respectively, using E1 and
E2 determines the security risk state of route.The security risk state of route includes general state, attention state, abnormality and tight
Weight state.
Step 2 determines that the probability of happening E of a kind of failure occurs for section route1:
The probability of happening E of a kind of failure1Are as follows:
Wherein, N is the sum for the danger source that will lead to a kind of failure that the section includes, f (Γk) it is k-th of danger source
The probability of happening of current month, f (Γk) calculation method it is as follows:
Wherein CM is current month, and SM is that line last makes an inspection tour month.
Step 3 determines that the probability of happening E of two class failures occurs for section route2:
The probability of happening E of two class failures2Are as follows:
Wherein M is the sum for the danger source that will lead to two class failures that the section includes, f (Γk) it is that k-th of danger source is worked as
The probability of happening in preceding month, processing when calculation method such as a kind of failure.
Step 4 utilizes a kind of fault rate E1With two class fault rate E2Determine the security risk shape of route
State:
Route one kind fault rate E1With two class fault rate E2Value range be [0,1], calculate E1With
E2Afterwards, first according to a kind of fault rate E1The security risk state for determining route, is defined as follows:
According to a kind of fault rate E1, the security risk state for calculating route is in attention state, abnormality or
Person's severe conditions, enter step 5.
According to a kind of fault rate E1, the security risk state for calculating route is in general state, then according to two classes
Fault rate E2The security risk state for determining route, is defined as follows:
According to two class fault rate E2, the security risk state of route is calculated, according to logic judgment as a result, entering step
Rapid 5.
Step 5, the security risk state of outlet line.
A kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure of the invention is establishing route risk source occurrence Probability Model
On the basis of combined circuit failure cost realize to transmission line safety risk status assess, by assessment result to line inspection
Job placement provides aid decision data.A kind of failure bring loss is huge, and the route that a kind of failure easily occurs should pacify immediately
Row makes an inspection tour；To the easy section that two class failures occur, maked an inspection tour according to the harm size reasonable arrangement that failure occurs.Transmission of electricity of the invention
Line security risk status appraisal procedure, in time grasp route operation conditions, in time find route ontology, affiliated facility and
The defect or hidden danger that route protection area occurs, and foundation is provided for line maintenance, maintenance and state evaluation etc..
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, all in essence of the invention
Mind and then within made any modifications, equivalent replacements, and improvements etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure, which comprises the steps of:
Step 1, building route danger source occurrence Probability Model Γ { T, αk, k=1,2 ..., 12, β }, wherein T is that parameter is dangerous
Source Type, β are the line fault type for leading to danger source, and α k is each monthly probability of happening in year, and k is monthly, the route
Fault type β point is a kind of failure and two class failures,
Transmission line of electricity is in different sections, including dangerous Source Type T it is different, danger source is in each monthly probability of happening αkBy data
The average statistical of the corresponding monthly probability of happening of danger Source Type T and line fault type β determines in library；
Step 2 determines that the probability of happening E of a kind of failure occurs for section route1:
The probability of happening E of a kind of failure1Are as follows:
Wherein, N is the sum for the danger source that will lead to a kind of failure that the section includes, f (Γk) it is k-th of danger source current moon
The probability of happening of part, f (Γk) calculation method it is as follows:
Wherein CM is current month, and SM is that line last makes an inspection tour month；
Step 3 determines that the probability of happening E of two class failures occurs for section route2:
The probability of happening E of two class failures2Are as follows:
Wherein, M is the sum for the danger source that will lead to two class failures that the section includes；
Step 4, the probability of happening E using a kind of failure1With the probability of happening E of two class failures2Determine the security risk shape of route
State:
Route one kind fault rate E1With two class fault rate E2Value range be [0,1], calculate a kind of failure
Probability of happening E1With two class fault rate E2Afterwards, it is first depending on a kind of fault rate E1Determine the security risk of route
State is defined as follows:
According to a kind of fault rate E1, the security risk state for calculating route is in attention state, abnormality or serious
State enters step 5；
According to a kind of fault rate E1, the security risk state for calculating route is in general state, then sends out according to two class failures
Raw probability E2The security risk state for determining route, is defined as follows:
According to two class fault rate E2, the security risk state of route is calculated, according to logic judgment as a result, entering step 5；
Step 5, the security risk state of outlet line；
The danger Source Type T includes the catastrophe risk source that general danger source and section are in different geographic regions；
The general danger source include put into operation the time be more than 3 months, equipment state evaluation is poor, line voltage distribution grade height；
The catastrophe risk source that the section is in different geographic regions includes in special sector danger source, the place for setting bamboo speed area
In the special sector danger source vulnerable to external force destruction area, the special sector danger source in the multiple area of bird pest, it is in flood erosion
The special sector danger source in area, the special sector danger source in unfavorable geology area, the special sector danger source in heavy icing area
With the special sector danger source for easily waving area in conducting wire.
2. a kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described one kind
Failure is that cause the failure of great damage include line tripping, human casualty accident, and the two classes failure is to influence electric service
Failure, including line voltage distribution shakiness and line voltage distribution.
3. a kind of transmission line safety risk status appraisal procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the route
Security risk state include general state, attention state, abnormality and severe conditions.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN102521497A (en) * | 2011-12-05 | 2012-06-27 | 广东省电力调度中心 | Method and system for handling power grid operation risk |
| CN102890754A (en) * | 2012-10-31 | 2013-01-23 | 中国科学院自动化研究所 | Danger source monitoring system for mine |
| CN103164819A (en) * | 2013-03-29 | 2013-06-19 | 广东电网公司 | Power equipment safety detection method and device |
| CN103427367A (en) * | 2013-08-14 | 2013-12-04 | 广东电网公司清远供电局 | Overhauling method for power transmission line |
| CN103630776A (en) * | 2013-11-19 | 2014-03-12 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司 | Evaluation method for fault probability of power equipment |
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2014
- 2014-03-19 CN CN201410103179.3A patent/CN103927692B/en active Active
Patent Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102521497A (en) * | 2011-12-05 | 2012-06-27 | 广东省电力调度中心 | Method and system for handling power grid operation risk |
| CN102890754A (en) * | 2012-10-31 | 2013-01-23 | 中国科学院自动化研究所 | Danger source monitoring system for mine |
| CN103164819A (en) * | 2013-03-29 | 2013-06-19 | 广东电网公司 | Power equipment safety detection method and device |
| CN103427367A (en) * | 2013-08-14 | 2013-12-04 | 广东电网公司清远供电局 | Overhauling method for power transmission line |
| CN103630776A (en) * | 2013-11-19 | 2014-03-12 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司 | Evaluation method for fault probability of power equipment |
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