CN106228283A - Transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure and system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure and system, effectively to quantify transmission line forest fire calamity source size, provide important decision-making foundation for transmission line forest fire diaster prevention and control.The method includes: obtains at least two sample data, and calculates the comprehensive loss of each sample data according to corresponding index；Determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source is assessed, the minima of described domain is less than or equal to the minimum comprehensive loss of described sample data, and the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data；Information diffusion function is used to calculate each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information amount for each domain；The probability density value of each domain is calculated according to described diffusion of information amount；Probability density value according to each domain calculates and exports transmission line forest fire calamity source probability.

Description

Transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure and system

Technical field

The present invention relates to electrical engineering technical field, particularly relate to a kind of transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure and System.

Background technology

In recent years, being affected by extreme weather and people's productive life fire, near power transmission line corridor, mountain fire takes place frequently, mountain Fire easily causes transmission line of electricity generation flashover tripping operation power outage, and UHV transmission line was repeatedly sent out because of mountain fire the most in recent years Raw tripping operation locking accident, serious threat bulk power grid safe and stable operation.The deployment of transmission line forest fire Its Preventive Measures needs Rely on calamity source assessment accurately and reliably, at present, many for the transmission line of electricity security risk assessment under mountain fire hazardous condition It is judged as with artificial experience main, not yet sets up rational evaluation system and appraisal procedure.

Summary of the invention

Present invention aim at a kind of transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure based on diffusion of information being provided and being System, effectively to quantify transmission line forest fire calamity source size, provides important decision-making to depend on for transmission line forest fire diaster prevention and control According to.

For achieving the above object, the invention provides a kind of transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure, including:

Obtain at least two sample data, and calculate the comprehensive loss of each sample data according to corresponding index；

Determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source is assessed, the minima of described domain is less than or equal to described sample data Little comprehensive loss, the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data；

Information diffusion function is used to calculate each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information amount for each domain；

The probability density value of each domain is calculated according to described diffusion of information amount；

Probability density value according to each domain calculates and exports transmission line forest fire calamity source probability.

Corresponding with said method, invention additionally discloses a kind of transmission line forest fire calamity source assessment system, including:

Module one, at least two sample data that is used for obtaining, and the comprehensive damage of each sample data is calculated according to corresponding index Lose；

Module two, for determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source assess, the minima of described domain is less than or equal to described The minimum comprehensive loss of sample data, the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data；

Module three, for using information diffusion function to calculate each comprehensive loss sample data for the diffusion of information of each domain Amount；

Module four, for according to described diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value；

Module five, for calculating and export transmission line forest fire calamity source probability according to the probability density value of each domain.

Optionally, above-mentioned corresponding index includes that electric quantity loss Pi, equipment lose Ei, social influence S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, Wherein n is mountain fire disaster data sample length.

Optionally, above-mentioned according to corresponding index calculate each sample data comprehensive loss particularly as follows:

Weigthed sums approach is used to calculate the comprehensive loss L of mountain fire disaster_i=α₁*P_i+α₂*E_i+α₃*S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, Wherein, L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data, α₁For electric quantity loss weight coefficient, α₂Weight system is lost for equipment Number, α₃For social influence's weight coefficient, n is mountain fire disaster data sample length；

Above-mentioned domain is: U={u₁, u₂..., u_m, wherein m is the length of domain, 0 ＜ u₁＜ u₂＜ ... ＜ u_m, 0 ＜ u₁≤ min{L_i, i=1,2 ... n}, um >=max{L_i, i=1,2 ... n}；

Above-mentioned employing information diffusion function calculates each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information measurer body for each domain For: use logarithm normal distribution function as information diffusion function:

$\begin{array}{c}{f}_i\left(u_j\right)=\frac{1}{u_j\mathrm{\σ}\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}}\exp (-\frac{{(ln{u}_j-\ln L_i)}^2}{2{\mathrm{\σ}}^2})\\ i=1,2,\mathrm{...}n;j=1,2,\mathrm{...},m\end{array}$

Wherein, f_i(u_j) it is that i-th sample data is to domain u_jDiffusion of information amount；σ is diffusion of information coefficient；N is mountain fire Disaster data sample length；M is the length of domain；L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data；u_jFor jth domain Value.

Optionally, above-mentioned according to above-mentioned diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value particularly as follows:

$R\left(u_j\right)=\frac{H\left(u_j\right)}{\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}H\left(u_j\right)},j=1,2,...,m$

$H\left(u_j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\[f_i\left(u_j\right)/\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{f}_i\left(u_k\right)\],j=1,2,...,m$

Wherein, R (u_j) it is domain u_jNormalization probability density value；H(u_j) it is domain u_jProbability density value；N is mountain fire Disaster data sample length；M is the length of domain；u_jFor jth domain value.

Optionally, the above-mentioned probability density value according to each domain calculates and exports transmission line forest fire calamity source probability tool Body is:

$P(x>u_j)=\underset{t=j}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}R\left(u_t\right)$

Wherein, P (x ＞ u_j) it is that transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss is more than u_jEvent occurrence rate, namely power transmission line Road mountain fire calamity source probability；R(u_t) it is domain u_tNormalization probability density value；M is the length of domain.

To sum up, transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure disclosed by the invention and system, based on Information expansion technology, Clear principle, easy to operate, there is the highest practical value；Can effectively quantify transmission line forest fire calamity source size, to defeated Electric line mountain fire diaster prevention and control has important directive significance.

Below with reference to accompanying drawings, the present invention is further detailed explanation.

Accompanying drawing explanation

The accompanying drawing of the part constituting the application is used for providing a further understanding of the present invention, and the present invention's is schematic real Execute example and illustrate for explaining the present invention, being not intended that inappropriate limitation of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:

Fig. 1 is transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure schematic diagram disclosed in the preferred embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed description of the invention

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, embodiments of the invention are described in detail, but the present invention can be defined by the claims Implement with the multitude of different ways covered.

Embodiment 1:

The transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure based on diffusion of information that the present embodiment is provided, including following tool Body step:

(1), collect the transmission line forest fire disaster data in area, mainly include the index of three aspects: electric quantity loss Pi, Equipment loss Ei, social influence Si, i=1,2 ..., n, wherein n is mountain fire disaster data sample length.

(2), weigthed sums approach is used to calculate the comprehensive loss L of mountain fire disaster_i=α₁*Pi+α₂*E_i+α₃*S_i, i=1, 2 ..., n, wherein, L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data, α₁For electric quantity loss weight coefficient, α₂Damage for equipment Lose weight coefficient, α₃For social influence's weight coefficient, n is mountain fire disaster data sample length.

(3), determine that the domain that mountain fire disaster Composite Damage Risk is assessed is: U={u₁, u₂..., u_m, wherein m is domain Length, 0 ＜ u₁＜ u₂＜ ... ＜ u_m, 0 ＜ u₁≤min{L_i, i=1,2 ... n}, um >=max{L_i, i=1,2 ... n}.

(4) it is contemplated that mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss is the numerical value more than 0 all the time, and for ensureing to analyze knot Fruit has the risk threshold degree of abundance, and the present invention uses logarithm normal distribution function as information diffusion function, can use following formula meter Calculate each comprehensive loss sample data Li diffusion of information amount for each domain uj:

$\begin{array}{c}{f}_i\left(u_j\right)=\frac{1}{u_j\mathrm{\σ}\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}}\exp (-\frac{{(ln{u}_j-\ln L_i)}^2}{2{\mathrm{\σ}}^2})\\ i=1,2,\mathrm{...}n;j=1,2,\mathrm{...},m\end{array}$

Wherein, f_i(u_j) it is that i-th sample data is to domain u_jDiffusion of information amount；σ is diffusion of information coefficient；N is mountain fire Disaster data sample length；M is the length of domain；L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data；u_jFor jth domain Value.

(5), each domain u is calculated_jProbability density value, formula is as follows:

$R\left(u_j\right)=\frac{H\left(u_j\right)}{\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}H\left(u_j\right)},j=1,2,...,m$

$H\left(u_j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\[f_i\left(u_j\right)/\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{f}_i\left(u_k\right)\],j=1,2,...,m$

Wherein, R (u_j) it is domain u_jNormalization probability density value；H(u_j) it is domain u_jProbability density value；N is mountain fire Disaster data sample length；M is the length of domain；u_jFor jth domain value.

(6), computing electric power line mountain fire calamity source probability, formula is as follows:

$P(x>u_j)=\underset{t=j}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}R\left(u_t\right)$

Wherein, P (x ＞ u_j) it is that transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss is more than u_jEvent occurrence rate, namely power transmission line Road mountain fire calamity source probability；R(u_t) it is domain u_tNormalization probability density value；M is the length of domain.

Embodiment 2:

The most cheer and bright for ease of technical scheme, the present embodiment 2 is to design parameter in embodiment 1 Datumization.

(1), collect the transmission line forest fire disaster data in a certain area, mainly include the index of three aspects: electricity damages Lose P_i, equipment loss E_i, social influence S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, wherein n is mountain fire disaster data sample length；

(2), weigthed sums approach is used to calculate the comprehensive loss L of mountain fire disaster_i=α₁*P_i+d₂*E_i+α₃*S_i, i=1, 2 ..., n, wherein, L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data, α₁For electric quantity loss weight coefficient, α₂Damage for equipment Lose weight coefficient, α₃For social influence's weight coefficient, mountain fire disaster data sample length n=20；

(3), determine that the domain that mountain fire disaster Composite Damage Risk is assessed is: U={u₁, u₂..., u_m}={ 10,30,50, 70,90}, wherein length m=5 of domain；

(4) it is contemplated that mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss is the numerical value more than 0 all the time, and for ensureing to analyze knot Fruit has the risk threshold degree of abundance, and the present invention uses logarithm normal distribution function as information diffusion function, can use following formula meter Calculate each comprehensive loss sample data L_iFor each domain u_jDiffusion of information amount:

Wherein, f_i(u_j) it is that i-th sample data is to domain u_jDiffusion of information amount；Diffusion of information factor sigma=28.4；Mountain Fire evil data sample length n=20；Length m=5 of domain；L_iFor i-th transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss sample Data；u_jFor jth domain value；

(5), each domain u is calculated_jProbability density value, formula is as follows:

Wherein, R (u_j) it is domain u_jNormalization probability density value；H(u_j) it is domain u_jProbability density value；N is mountain fire Disaster data sample length；M is the length of domain；u_jFor jth domain value；

(6), computing electric power line mountain fire calamity source probability, formula is as follows:

Wherein, P (x ＞ u_j) it is that transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss is more than u_jEvent occurrence rate, namely power transmission line Road mountain fire calamity source probability；R(u_t) it is domain u_tNormalization probability density value；Length m=5 of domain.

Calculated transmission line forest fire calamity source probability is P (x ＞ 10)=1, P (x ＞ 30)=0.56, P (x ＞ 50)=0.29, P (x ＞ 70)=0.08, P (x ＞ 90)=0.01, from this result of calculation, this area's transmission line forest fire calamity Do harm to the comprehensive loss event more than 30 and the transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss event occurrence rate more than 50 is the highest, Ying Chong Point takes precautions against this two classes transmission line forest fire disaster accident, it is ensured that power network safety operation.

Embodiment 3

On the basis of above-described embodiment 1 and 2, those skilled in the art is it is understood that power transmission line disclosed by the invention Road mountain fire calamity source appraisal procedure, can be condensed into following step, as it is shown in figure 1, specifically include:

Step S1, acquisition at least two sample data, and the comprehensive loss of each sample data is calculated according to corresponding index.Its In this corresponding index include but not limited to the electric quantity loss P in above-described embodiment_i, equipment loss E_i, social influence S_iEtc. index； Each index artificially can carry out multidimensional setting and test and appraisal according to historical data and statistical method.Optionally, this sample data can be The repeatedly historical data of same transmission line of electricity, it is also possible to be the repeatedly historical data of different transmission line of electricity.

Step S2, determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source is assessed, the minima of described domain is less than or equal to described sample The minimum comprehensive loss of data, the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data.

Step S3, employing information diffusion function calculate each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information amount for each domain. Wherein, the logarithm normal distribution function during this information diffusion function includes but not limited to above-described embodiment 1.

Step S4, according to described diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value.

Step S5, probability density value according to each domain calculate and export transmission line forest fire calamity source probability.

Embodiment 4

Corresponding with said method, invention additionally discloses a kind of transmission line forest fire calamity source assessment system, including:

Module one, at least two sample data that is used for obtaining, and the comprehensive damage of each sample data is calculated according to corresponding index Lose；

Module two, for determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source assess, the minima of described domain is less than or equal to described The minimum comprehensive loss of sample data, the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data；

Module three, for using information diffusion function to calculate each comprehensive loss sample data for the diffusion of information of each domain Amount；

Module four, for according to described diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value；

Module five, for calculating and export transmission line forest fire calamity source probability according to the probability density value of each domain.

The foregoing is only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, be not limited to the present invention, for the skill of this area For art personnel, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.All within the spirit and principles in the present invention, that is made any repaiies Change, equivalent, improvement etc., should be included within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. a transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that including:

Obtain at least two sample data, and calculate the comprehensive loss of each sample data according to corresponding index；

Determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source is assessed, the minima of described domain is combined less than or equal to the minimum of described sample data Closing loss, the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data；

Information diffusion function is used to calculate each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information amount for each domain；

The probability density value of each domain is calculated according to described diffusion of information amount；

Probability density value according to each domain calculates and exports transmission line forest fire calamity source probability.

Transmission line forest fire calamity source appraisal procedure the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described corresponding index Including electric quantity loss P_i, equipment loss E_i, social influence S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, wherein n is mountain fire disaster data sample length；

Described according to corresponding index calculate each sample data comprehensive loss particularly as follows:

Weigthed sums approach is used to calculate the comprehensive loss L of mountain fire disaster_i=α₁*P_i+α₂*E_i+α₃*S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, wherein, L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data, α₁For electric quantity loss weight coefficient, α₂Weight coefficient, α is lost for equipment₃ For social influence's weight coefficient, n is mountain fire disaster data sample length；

Described domain is: U={u₁, u₂..., u_m, wherein m is the length of domain, 0 ＜ u₁＜ u₂＜ ... ＜ u_m, 0 ＜ u₁≤min {L_j, i=1,2 ... n}, um >=max{L_i, i=1,2 ... n}；

Described employing information diffusion function calculates each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information amount for each domain particularly as follows: adopt With logarithm normal distribution function as information diffusion function:

$\begin{array}{c}{f}_i\left(u_j\right)=\frac{1}{u_j\mathrm{\σ}\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}}\exp (-\frac{{(\ln u_j-\ln L_i)}^2}{2\mathrm{\σ}})\\ i=1,2,...,n;j=1,2,...,m\end{array}$

Wherein, f_i(u_j) it is that i-th sample data is to domain u_jDiffusion of information amount；σ is diffusion of information coefficient；N is mountain fire disaster Data sample length；M is the length of domain；L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data；u_jFor jth domain value；

Described according to described diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value particularly as follows:

$R\left(u_j\right)=\frac{H\left(u_j\right)}{\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}H\left(u_j\right)},j=1,2,...,m$

$H\left(u_j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\[f_i\left(u_j\right)/\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{f}_i\left(u_k\right)\],j=1,2,...,m$

Wherein, R (u_j) it is domain u_jNormalization probability density value；H(u_j) it is domain u_jProbability density value；N is mountain fire disaster Data sample length；M is the length of domain；u_jFor jth domain value；

The described probability density value according to each domain calculate and export transmission line forest fire calamity source probability particularly as follows:

$P(x>u_j)=\underset{t=j}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}R\left(u_t\right)$

Wherein, P (x ＞ u_j) it is that transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss is more than u_jEvent occurrence rate, namely transmission line of electricity mountain Fire evil risk probability；R(u_t) it is domain u_tNormalization probability density value；M is the length of domain.

3. a transmission line forest fire calamity source assessment system, it is characterised in that including:

Module one, at least two sample data that is used for obtaining, and the comprehensive loss of each sample data is calculated according to corresponding index；

Module two, for determining the domain that mountain fire calamity source assess, the minima of described domain is less than or equal to described sample The minimum comprehensive loss of data, the maximum of described domain is more than or equal to the maximum of described sample data；

Module three, for using information diffusion function to calculate each comprehensive loss sample data for the diffusion of information amount of each domain；

Module four, for according to described diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value；

Module five, for calculating and export transmission line forest fire calamity source probability according to the probability density value of each domain.

Transmission line forest fire calamity source the most according to claim 3 assessment system, it is characterised in that described corresponding index Including electric quantity loss P_i, equipment loss E_i, social influence S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, wherein n is mountain fire disaster data sample length；

Described according to corresponding index calculate each sample data comprehensive loss particularly as follows:

Weigthed sums approach is used to calculate the comprehensive loss L of mountain fire disaster_i=α₁*P_i+α₂*E_i+α₃*S_i, i=1,2 ..., n, wherein, L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data, α₁For electric quantity loss weight coefficient, α₂Weight coefficient, α is lost for equipment₃ For social influence's weight coefficient, n is mountain fire disaster data sample length；

Described domain is: U={u₁, u2 ..., u_m, wherein m is the length of domain, 0 ＜ u₁＜ u2 ＜ ... ＜ u_m, 0 ＜ u₁≤min {L_i, i=1,2 ... n}, um >=max{L_i, i=1,2 ... n}；

Described employing information diffusion function calculates each comprehensive loss sample data diffusion of information amount for each domain particularly as follows: adopt With logarithm normal distribution function as information diffusion function

$\begin{array}{c}{f}_i\left(u_j\right)=\frac{1}{u_j\mathrm{\σ}\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}}\exp (-\frac{{(\ln u_j-\ln L_i)}^2}{2{\mathrm{\σ}}^2})\\ i=1,2,\mathrm{...},n;j=1,2,\mathrm{...},m\end{array}$

Wherein, f_i(u_j) it is that i-th sample data is to domain u_jDiffusion of information amount；σ is diffusion of information coefficient；N is mountain fire disaster Data sample length；M is the length of domain；L_iFor i-th mountain fire disaster comprehensive loss sample data；u_jFor jth domain value；

Described according to described diffusion of information amount calculate each domain probability density value particularly as follows:

$R\left(u_j\right)=\frac{H\left(u_j\right)}{\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}H\left(u_j\right)},j=1,2,...,m$

$H\left(u_j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\[f_i\left(u_j\right)/\underset{k=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{f}_i\left(u_k\right)\],j=1,2,...,m$

Wherein, R (u_j) it is domain u_jNormalization probability density value；H(u_j) it is domain u_jProbability density value；N is mountain fire disaster Data sample length；M is the length of domain；u_jFor jth domain value；

The described probability density value according to each domain calculate and export transmission line forest fire calamity source probability particularly as follows:

$P(x>u_j)=\underset{t=j}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}R\left(u_t\right)$

Wherein, P (x ＞ u_j) it is that transmission line forest fire disaster comprehensive loss is more than u_jEvent occurrence rate, namely transmission line of electricity mountain Fire evil risk probability；R(u_t) it is domain u_tNormalization probability density value；M is the length of domain.