CN103406364A - Method for predicting thickness of hot-rolled strip steel on basis of improved partial robust M-regression algorithm - Google Patents

Method for predicting thickness of hot-rolled strip steel on basis of improved partial robust M-regression algorithm Download PDF

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CN103406364A
CN103406364A CN201310326469XA CN201310326469A CN103406364A CN 103406364 A CN103406364 A CN 103406364A CN 201310326469X A CN201310326469X A CN 201310326469XA CN 201310326469 A CN201310326469 A CN 201310326469A CN 103406364 A CN103406364 A CN 103406364A
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尹珅
潘瑞
王光
卫作龙
高会军
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Bohai University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the thickness of hot-rolled strip steel on the basis of an improved partial robust M-regression algorithm, and relates to a method for predicting the thickness of hot-rolled strip steel. By the aid of the method, the problem of incapability of acquiring an accurate analytical model or extremely high time consumption of a modeling procedure of an existing method for predicting the thickness of hot-rolled strip steel is solved. The method includes monitoring operational data of seven finishing mills to acquire observational variables (x<i>, y<i>), defining an input data matrix X and an output data matrix Y and computing initial values omega<i> of robust weighting factors; weighting the observational variables (x<i>, y<i>) to acquire predicted data, performing partial least-square analysis on the predicted data to acquire a partial least-square model of the predicted data and continuously computing to obtain a partial least-square regression model and regression coefficients B; judging whether estimation errors of a k<th> regression coefficient B and a (k-1)<th> regression coefficient B are smaller than a set threshold value or not, acquiring a certain regression coefficient B and determining a partial least-square regression model which is a prediction result for the thickness of the hot-rolled strip steel. The method can be widely applied to predicting the thickness of the hot-rolled strip steel.

Description

A kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method.
Background technology
At many industrial circles, as Chemical Manufacture, papermaking and oil refining etc., for control and the monitoring that can survey regression relation analysis between data and quality of production variable and help production process.A kind of suitable regression model can be used as soft survey tool, assists process engineering teacher to predict the final production quality, and this control for production process, optimization and error diagnosis have great importance.
The main Key Performance Indicator (KPI) of hot strip mill is thickness, width and the shape with steel, and wherein, thickness is the decisive factor that strip quality and iron and steel are produced productive rate.Under the huge draught pressure of milling train, be can't be guaranteed by the method apart from obtaining the belt steel thickness of wanting simply arranged between work roll.At front several finishing mills, surpass rolling-mill housing under the draught pressure of 3000 tons and can form the outside stretching, extension of much half inch after the steel bar access arrangement.Therefore, most important according to the thickness that the pre-measuring tape steel of running status is final, can reach the purpose that accurate dimension is controlled.
The most reliable method of thickness prediction is to set up analytical model, yet on the one hand accurate analytical model be can't obtain or modeling process be extremely time consuming, nowadays the many producers in steel and iron industry have set up large-scale database be used to storing measurable procedural information on the other hand.
Summary of the invention
The present invention for the method that solves the pre existing Thickness Measurement by Microwave exist accurate analytical model be can't obtain or modeling process be extremely time consuming problem, thereby a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm is provided.
A kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm, it comprises the steps:
Step 1: the operational data of 7 finishing mills of monitoring obtains observational variable (x i, y i), and according to observational variable (x i, y i) definition input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω i
The operational data of described finishing mill comprises the work roll average headway of every finishing mill, every finishing mill gross pressure, every finishing mill work roll crimp force;
Step 2: to observational variable (x i, y i) be weighted and process the acquisition prediction data
Figure BDA00003595409800011
And to prediction data
Figure BDA00003595409800012
Carry out partial least squares analysis, obtain the partial least square model of prediction data
Figure BDA00003595409800013
Figure BDA00003595409800014
And calculate Partial Least-Squares Regression Model for the first time
Figure BDA00003595409800015
With regression coefficient B;
Step 3: according to the Partial Least-Squares Regression Model of step 2 acquisition
Figure BDA00003595409800021
With regression coefficient B, calculate the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading i
Step 4: according to the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading iCalculate the Partial Least-Squares Regression Model of the k time
Figure BDA00003595409800022
With the regression coefficient B of the k time, k>=2 wherein;
Step 5: whether the evaluated error that judges the regression coefficient B of the k time regression coefficient B and the k-1 time is less than setting threshold, enters step 6 if be less than, if be not less than, upgrades robust weighted factor ω iAnd return to step 4;
Step 6: obtain regression coefficient B and determine Partial Least-Squares Regression Model Be hot-strip thickness prediction result.
Adopt the present invention to realize the hot-strip thickness prediction based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm.Regression coefficient obtains a regression model by the judgement of iterative computation and threshold value
Figure BDA000035954098000210
, wherein Y is namely the thickness of the hot-strip of Key Performance Indicator KPI needs.This regression model has been realized according to input state variable prediction belt steel thickness, and the actual (real) thickness after not needing by the time out to adopt afterwards with steel; The benefit of prediction is to predict in advance the abnormal conditions that may occur, thereby obtains by suitable control the accurate dimension that we need.
The accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm of the present invention.
The specific embodiment
The specific embodiment one, in conjunction with Fig. 1, this specific embodiment is described.A kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm, it comprises the steps:
Step 1: the operational data of 7 finishing mills of monitoring obtains observational variable (x i, y i), and according to observational variable (x i, y i) definition input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω i
The operational data of described finishing mill comprises the work roll average headway of every finishing mill, every finishing mill gross pressure, every finishing mill work roll crimp force;
Step 2: to observational variable (x i, y i) be weighted and process the acquisition prediction data And to prediction data Carry out partial least squares analysis, obtain the partial least square model of prediction data
Figure BDA00003595409800026
Figure BDA00003595409800027
And calculate Partial Least-Squares Regression Model for the first time With regression coefficient B;
Step 3: according to the Partial Least-Squares Regression Model of step 2 acquisition With regression coefficient B, calculate the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading i
Step 4: according to the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading iCalculate the Partial Least-Squares Regression Model of the k time
Figure BDA00003595409800031
With the regression coefficient B of the k time, k>=2 wherein;
Step 5: whether the evaluated error that judges the regression coefficient B of the k time regression coefficient B and the k-1 time is less than setting threshold, enters step 6 if be less than, if be not less than, upgrades robust weighted factor ω iAnd return to step 4;
Step 6: obtain regression coefficient B and determine Partial Least-Squares Regression Model
Figure BDA00003595409800032
Be hot-strip thickness prediction result.
What the specific embodiment two, this specific embodiment one were different is described step 1: the operational data of 7 finishing mills of monitoring obtains observational variable (x i, y i), and according to observational variable (x i, y i) definition input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω iProcess be:
The operational data of 7 finishing mills obtains observational variable (x i, y i), wherein:
X iFor i the row vector of input data X, x I1..., x I7Be respectively the work roll average headway of every finishing mill, x I8..., x I14Be respectively every finishing mill gross pressure, x I15..., x I21Be respectively every finishing mill work roll crimp force; y iFor final outlet hot-strip thickness;
According to input data X and output data Y, total Squared Error Loss center of calculating respectively input data X
Figure BDA00003595409800033
Total Squared Error Loss center with the output data Y
Figure BDA00003595409800034
e &OverBar; ( X ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k inputi x i
e &OverBar; ( Y ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k outputi y i
Wherein, n is sample total:
k inputi = 1 1 + 4 x i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 x j 2
k outputi = 1 1 + 4 y i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 y j 2
According to input observed quantity x iTotal Squared Error Loss center with input data X Calculate respectively each input observed quantity x iTotal Squared Error Loss center with the input data
Figure BDA000035954098000310
Total Squared Error Loss distance:
d i = [ x i - e &OverBar; ( X ) ] 2 1 + 4 [ e &OverBar; ( X ) ] 2
According to output data y iTotal Squared Error Loss center with the output data Y
Figure BDA00003595409800042
Calculate respectively each output observed quantity y iWith the output total Squared Error Loss of data center Difference residual error r i:
r i = y i - e &OverBar; ( Y )
Calculate residual error r iTotal Squared Error Loss center
Figure BDA00003595409800045
e &OverBar; ( r ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k ri r i
Wherein:
k ri = 1 1 + 4 r i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 r j 2
Calculate respectively robust leverage points weighted factor initial value
Figure BDA00003595409800048
With the remaining point of robust weighted factor initial value
Figure BDA00003595409800049
&omega; i x = f ( d i e &OverBar; i ( d i ) , c )
&omega; i r = f ( r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) e &OverBar; i ( | r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) | ) , c )
Wherein the formula right side is Fair function f (z, c), and expression formula is:
f ( z , c ) = 1 1 + | z c | 2
Wherein c, for adjusting constant, gets c=4;
According to the remaining point of robust weighted factor initial value
Figure BDA000035954098000413
With robust leverage points weighted factor initial value
Figure BDA000035954098000414
Calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω i:
&omega; i = &omega; i r &omega; i x .
What the specific embodiment three, this specific embodiment were different from the specific embodiment one or two is described step 2: to observational variable (x i, y i) be weighted and process the acquisition prediction data
Figure BDA000035954098000416
And to prediction data
Figure BDA000035954098000417
Carry out partial least squares analysis, obtain the partial least square model of prediction data
Figure BDA000035954098000418
Partial Least-Squares Regression Model With the process of regression coefficient B, be:
With every delegation of input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, be not multiplied by
Figure BDA00003595409800052
Obtain the weighted observation data ( &omega; i x i , &omega; i y i ) ;
The weighted observation data are carried out to partial least squares analysis, obtain weighting least square model afterwards:
X = TP T + X ~
Y = TQ + Y ~
Wherein, T is score matrix; P is load matrix;
Figure BDA00003595409800056
For the residual error of X, Q is the regression coefficient of score matrix T Residual error for Y;
Least square model after weighting is carried out to classical partial least-squares regressive analysis, obtain
Y = XB + Y ~
Wherein B is regression coefficient;
The every delegation of score matrix T calculated all divided by
Figure BDA00003595409800059
Reduce.
What the specific embodiment four, this specific embodiment were different from the specific embodiment three is described according to Partial Least-Squares Regression Model
Figure BDA000035954098000510
With regression coefficient B, calculate the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading iProcess be:
According to partial least square model
Figure BDA000035954098000511
Vectorial t counts the score iTotal Squared Error Loss distance:
e &OverBar; ( T ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k ti t i
Wherein
k ti = 1 1 + 4 t i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 t j 2
According to the Fair function, calculate respectively the remaining weighted factor of new robust With robust lever weighted factor
Figure BDA000035954098000515
&omega; i r = f ( r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) e &OverBar; i ( | r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) | ) , c )
&omega; i x = f ( d i e &OverBar; i ( d i ) , c )
Wherein
r i=y i-t iq
d i = [ t i - e &OverBar; ( T ) ] 2 1 + 4 [ e &OverBar; ( T ) ] 2
According to the remaining point of robust weighted factor
Figure BDA00003595409800062
With robust leverage points weighted factor
Figure BDA00003595409800063
Calculate new robust weighted factor value
&omega; i = &omega; i r &omega; i x .
What the specific embodiment five, this specific embodiment were different from the specific embodiment one is that the described setting threshold of step 5 is 10 -2.
Specific embodiment: this specific embodiment is estimated the simulation comparison of PLS, inclined to one side robust M homing method PRM for contrasting the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm mPRM and offset minimum binary.
At first by the data sample (x of N=1000 group without abnormity point 0i, y 0i) being divided into two parts: a part is sample (x i, y i) quantity is n, be used to estimating regression coefficient B, wherein will add abnormity point; Another part is sample (x Vi, y Vi) quantity is N rep=N-n, be used to verifying prediction accuracy.
Suppose score matrix (T 0) N * hAnd matrix (P 0) P * hMeet T 0, P 0~N (3,1).Data matrix (X 0) N * pBy X 0=T 0P 0 TCalculate X 0Variable between will have good linear relationship.Corresponding output matrix Y 0Meet
Y 0=X 0B 0=T 0P 0 TB 0
Β wherein 0Be regression coefficient, might as well set Β 0~N (3,1).In order to calculate the accuracy of estimating output, we adopt mean square deviation (MSE) concept, and mean square deviation is less, illustrate that the accuracy of forecast model output is higher.
Table 1
Figure BDA00003595409800065
Figure BDA00003595409800071
Table 1 is depicted as three kinds of method offset minimum binaries and estimates PLS, inclined to one side robust M homing method PRM, and the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm mPRM is in the performance existed in the abnormity point situation.The emulation mode proposed at " Partial robust M-regression " literary composition according to S.Serneel etc., respectively for three groups of different (n, p, h) repeat six kinds of different errors distribution (standardized normal distributions, pull-type distribution, t5 distributes, and t2 distributes, and Cauchy distributes and oblique line distributes) carry out emulation.
As can be seen from Table 1, offset minimum binary estimates PLS in the situation that noise is obeyed standardized normal distribution, and mean square deviation is minimum all the time, but when noise is obeyed asymmetric distribution, offset minimum binary estimates that the advantage of PLS has not just had, and its mean square deviation can become very large on the contrary.Robust M homing method PRM and the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm mPRM are all the time very little for the mean square deviation of Asymmetrical distributed noise partially, for front four kinds of errors, robust M homing method PRM is slightly better partially, but in the situation of latter two distribution, the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm mPRM is good than inclined to one side robust M homing method PRM.
In order further to compare the performance of the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm mPRM and inclined to one side robust M homing method PRM, set (n, p, h) be (100,5,2), noise is obeyed standardized normal distribution, by 5%, 10% in observation data, 15%, 20% and 25% normal point replaces with abnormity point, abnormity point is obeyed N (35,0.2), thereby a certain proportion of lever abnormity point just has been added in observation data.Table 2 has shown simulation result.
Table 2
Figure BDA00003595409800072
As can be seen from Table 2, offset minimum binary estimates that PLS does not possess good robustness for the lever abnormity point of arbitrary proportion; Robust M homing method PRM keeps good robustness in the abnormity point situation below 15% partially, and still along with the increase of abnormity point ratio, the robustness of robust M homing method PRM can decline to a great extent partially; The inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm mPRM, under the ratio condition of all considerations, all keeps fabulous robustness.

Claims (5)

1. the hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm, is characterized in that it comprises the steps:
Step 1: the operational data of 7 finishing mills of monitoring obtains observational variable (x i, y i), and according to observational variable (x i, y i) definition input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω i
The operational data of described finishing mill comprises the work roll average headway of every finishing mill, every finishing mill gross pressure, every finishing mill work roll crimp force;
Step 2: to observational variable (x i, y i) be weighted and process the acquisition prediction data
Figure FDA00003595409700011
And to prediction data
Figure FDA00003595409700012
Carry out partial least squares analysis, obtain the partial least square model of prediction data
Figure FDA00003595409700013
Figure FDA00003595409700014
And calculate Partial Least-Squares Regression Model for the first time
Figure FDA00003595409700015
With regression coefficient B;
Step 3: according to the Partial Least-Squares Regression Model of step 2 acquisition
Figure FDA00003595409700016
With regression coefficient B, calculate the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading i
Step 4: according to the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading iCalculate the Partial Least-Squares Regression Model of the k time
Figure FDA00003595409700017
With the regression coefficient B of the k time, k>=2 wherein;
Step 5: whether the evaluated error that judges the regression coefficient B of the k time regression coefficient B and the k-1 time is less than setting threshold, enters step 6 if be less than, if be not less than, upgrades robust weighted factor ω iAnd return to step 4;
Step 6: obtain regression coefficient B and determine Partial Least-Squares Regression Model
Figure FDA00003595409700018
Be hot-strip thickness prediction result.
2. a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm according to claim 1, is characterized in that described step 1: the operational data acquisition observational variable (x of 7 finishing mills of monitoring i, y i), and according to observational variable (x i, y i) definition input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω iProcess be:
The operational data of 7 finishing mills obtains observational variable (x i, y i), wherein:
X iFor i the row vector of input data X, x I1..., x I7Be respectively the work roll average headway of every finishing mill, x I8..., x I14Be respectively every finishing mill gross pressure, x I15..., x I21Be respectively every finishing mill work roll crimp force; y iFor final outlet hot-strip thickness;
According to input data X and output data Y, total Squared Error Loss center of calculating respectively input data X
Figure FDA00003595409700019
Total Squared Error Loss center with the output data Y
Figure FDA000035954097000110
e &OverBar; ( X ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k inputi x i
e &OverBar; ( Y ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k outputi y i
Wherein, n is sample total:
k inputi = 1 1 + 4 x i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 x j 2
k outputi = 1 1 + 4 y i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 y j 2
According to input observed quantity x iTotal Squared Error Loss center with input data X Calculate respectively each input observed quantity x iTotal Squared Error Loss center with the input data
Figure FDA00003595409700026
Total Squared Error Loss distance:
d i = [ x i - e &OverBar; ( X ) ] 2 1 + 4 [ e &OverBar; ( X ) ] 2
According to output data y iTotal Squared Error Loss center with the output data Y Calculate respectively each output observed quantity y iWith the output total Squared Error Loss of data center
Figure FDA00003595409700029
Difference residual error r i:
r i = y i - e &OverBar; ( Y )
Calculate residual error r iTotal Squared Error Loss center
Figure FDA000035954097000211
e &OverBar; ( r ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k ri r i
Wherein:
k ri = 1 1 + 4 r i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 r j 2
Calculate respectively robust leverage points weighted factor initial value
Figure FDA000035954097000214
With the remaining point of robust weighted factor initial value
Figure FDA000035954097000215
&omega; i x = f ( d i e &OverBar; i ( d i ) , c )
&omega; i r = f ( r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) e &OverBar; i ( | r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) | ) , c )
Wherein the formula right side is Fair function f (z, c), and expression formula is:
f ( z , c ) = 1 1 + | z c | 2
Wherein c, for adjusting constant, gets c=4;
According to the remaining point of robust weighted factor initial value
Figure FDA00003595409700032
With robust leverage points weighted factor initial value Calculate robust weighted factor initial value ω i:
&omega; i = &omega; i r &omega; i x .
3. a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that described step 2: to observational variable (x i, y i) be weighted and process the acquisition prediction data
Figure FDA00003595409700035
And to prediction data
Figure FDA00003595409700036
Carry out partial least squares analysis, obtain the partial least square model of prediction data
Figure FDA00003595409700037
Partial Least-Squares Regression Model
Figure FDA00003595409700038
With the process of regression coefficient B, be:
With every delegation of input data matrix X and output data matrix Y, be multiplied by respectively
Figure FDA00003595409700039
Obtain the weighted observation data ( &omega; i x i , &omega; i y i ) ;
The weighted observation data are carried out to partial least squares analysis, obtain weighting least square model afterwards:
X = TP T + X ~
Y = TQ + Y ~
Wherein, T is score matrix; P is load matrix;
Figure FDA000035954097000317
For the residual error of X, Q is the regression coefficient of score matrix T
Figure FDA000035954097000313
Residual error for Y;
Least square model after weighting is carried out to classical partial least-squares regressive analysis, obtain
Y = XB + Y ~
Wherein B is regression coefficient;
The every delegation of score matrix T calculated all divided by
Figure FDA000035954097000315
Reduce.
4. a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm according to claim 3, is characterized in that described according to Partial Least-Squares Regression Model With regression coefficient B, calculate the robust weighted factor ω after upgrading iProcess be:
According to partial least square model Vectorial t counts the score iTotal Squared Error Loss distance:
e &OverBar; ( T ) = &Sigma; i = 1 n k ti t i
Wherein
k ti = 1 1 + 4 t i 2 / &Sigma; j = 1 n 1 1 + 4 t j 2
According to the Fair function, calculate respectively the remaining weighted factor of new robust With robust lever weighted factor
Figure FDA00003595409700045
&omega; i r = f ( r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) e &OverBar; i ( | r i - e &OverBar; ( r ) | ) , c )
&omega; i x = f ( d i e &OverBar; i ( d i ) , c )
Wherein
r i=y i-t iq
d i = [ t i - e &OverBar; ( T ) ] 2 1 + 4 [ e &OverBar; ( T ) ] 2
According to the remaining point of robust weighted factor
Figure FDA00003595409700049
With robust leverage points weighted factor
Figure FDA000035954097000410
Calculate new robust weighted factor value
&omega; i = &omega; i r &omega; i x .
5. a kind of hot-strip thickness prediction method based on the inclined to one side robust M of modified regression algorithm according to claim 1, is characterized in that the described setting threshold of step 5 is 10 -2.
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CN106649202B (en) * 2016-12-07 2019-04-09 宁波大学 Industrial process flexible measurement method based on diversity variable weighting PLSR model

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