CN103093109B - Property loss assessment method in earthquake - Google Patents
Property loss assessment method in earthquake Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of property loss assessment method in earthquake, it is for after earthquake disaster occurs, rapid evaluation seismic region property loss quantity L, it obtains the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine, the number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region and the seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region; Measure different earthquake intensity region buildings total area S separately in seismic region respectively; And obtain destructiveness be collapse, the damage area S of the buildings of partial collapse
d; Obtain the true altitude h before the buildings shake of the collapsing separately of different earthquake intensity region in seismic region, partial collapse, obtain associated characteristic constant c by described true altitude h; According to the parameter that above-mentioned steps obtains, by formula <maths num=" 0001 " >
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of a kind of property loss assessment method in method assessing the loss that earthquake causes, particularly earthquake.
Background technology
Earthquake is a kind of disaster of burst, and a ruinous earthquake often causes very serious economic loss and casualties in very short time, and national governments all take active and effective measure, earthquake disaster mitigation.Tight earthquake emergency system is efficiently set up in a wherein very important measure exactly, improves emergency command when government shakes and rescue ability, reduces the people's lives and property loss.
In Earthquake Emergency Commanding System, earthquake disaster rapid evaluation is important foundation and the scientific basis of Emergence decision system.Earthquake property loss, namely usually said seismic direct economic loss, refer to earthquake and place disaster thereof, buildings that secondary disaster causes and the economic loss that Other Engineering structure, facility, equipment, property etc. destroy and cause, its conversion is worth with trimming, restoration and reconstruction or resets required expense and represent.It does not comprise non-physical property, as the loss such as currency, securities.Place and cultural relics and historic sites destroy not to be converted as economic loss, and it mainly describes the collapse state that earthquake causes.
If rapid Estimation earthquake property loss situation can be gone out, just reference data can be provided for emergency resources demand and post-disaster reconstruction; Thus aid decision making person can formulate resource allocation deployment targetedly.
China establishes model for Fast Seismic Disaster Assessment the enforcement period of the ninth five-year plan, although wherein include earthquake property loss assessment model, there is very large gap between the assessment result of this model and factual survey result.
Summary of the invention
The invention provides a kind of property loss assessment method in earthquake, to reduce or to avoid problem noted earlier.
For solving the problem, the present invention proposes a kind of property loss assessment method in earthquake, it is for after earthquake disaster occurs, rapid evaluation seismic region property loss quantity L, and it comprises the steps,
A, according to the ground motion parameter of each seismograph station record and Intensity Attenuation, obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine, the number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region and the seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region
k;
B, according to seismic region shake before remote sensing images, measure different earthquake intensity region buildings total area S separately in seismic region respectively by computing machine;
C, occur according to earthquake disaster after the remote sensing images of seismic region, respectively the buildings of different earthquake intensity regions destruction separately in seismic region is identified by computing machine, to destructiveness be collapse, the buildings of partial collapse adds up, and obtain destructiveness be collapse, the damage area S of the buildings of partial collapse
d;
D, according to the remote sensing images before seismic region shake, obtain the collapsing separately of different earthquake intensity region in seismic region by computing machine, the buildings of partial collapse shake before true altitude h, obtain associated characteristic constant c by described true altitude h;
E, the parameter obtained according to above-mentioned steps, by formula
Calculate the property loss quantity L obtaining seismic region, a=-30336, b=6613.9 in above-mentioned formula.
Preferably, the corresponding relation of the true altitude h before described parameter c and seismic region buildings shake is,
When 3 meters≤h<6 rice, c=1.4.
Preferably, the corresponding relation of the true altitude h before described parameter c and seismic region buildings shake is,
When 6 meters≤h<12 rice, c=1.3,
When 12 meters≤h<21 rice, c=1.2,
As 21 meters≤h, c=1.1.
Property loss assessment method in earthquake provided by the present invention, it can after the earthquake, the property loss utilizing the high resolving power aviation of seismic region generation BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE or remote sensing image to assess earthquake fast and accurately to cause.
Embodiment
In order to there be understanding clearly to technical characteristic of the present invention, object and effect, now the specific embodiment of the present invention is described.
Below by way of example, describe in detail according to property loss assessment method in a kind of earthquake of the present invention.Property loss assessment method in earthquake provided by the present invention, after being used in earthquake disaster generation, rapid evaluation seismic region property loss quantity L, the method comprises the steps,
A, according to the ground motion parameter of each seismograph station record and Intensity Attenuation, obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine, the number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region and the seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region
k;
B, according to the high resolving power aviation before seismic region shake or remote sensing image, (unit can for m to measure different earthquake intensity region buildings total area S separately in seismic region respectively by computing machine
2); Such as, commercially available ENVI software (the remote sensing image processing software that American I TTVisualInformationSolutions company produces) can be utilized to analyze high-resolution remote sensing images (i.e. the remote sensing images of resolution below 5 meters), calculate the total area S of different earthquake intensity regions buildings separately in seismic region;
C, occur according to earthquake disaster after the high resolving power aviation of seismic region or remote sensing image, respectively the buildings of different earthquake intensity regions destruction separately in seismic region is identified by computing machine, to destructiveness be collapse, the buildings of partial collapse adds up, and obtain destructiveness be collapse, the damage area S of the buildings of partial collapse
d(unit can be m
2); Such as, aforementioned ENVI software simulating can be utilized automatically to identify based on the damage house of regional structure and texture statistics characteristic, in conjunction with traditional visual interpretation, high-resolution remote sensing images are analyzed, calculate collapse, the floor area of building S of partial collapse
d;
D, according to the high resolving power aviation before seismic region shake or remote sensing image, obtain the collapsing separately of different earthquake intensity region in seismic region by computing machine, the buildings of partial collapse shake before true altitude h (unit can for m); Such as, aforementioned ENVI software can be utilized to analyze high-resolution remote sensing image, calculate the true altitude h before the buildings shake of seismic region; Associated characteristic constant c is obtained by described true altitude h;
E, the parameter obtained according to above-mentioned steps, by formula
Calculate the property loss quantity L obtaining seismic region, a=-30336, b=6613.9 in above-mentioned formula.
By the statistical study to historical earthquake disaster data, the multiple ternary linear functions about parameter a, b, c can be drawn, therefore also just easily via the statistical study to historical earthquake disaster data, be finally inversed by the characteristic constant c of the true altitude h before corresponding to the shake of different seismic region buildingss, and the value of constant a, b.
In the present invention, by the statistical study to historical earthquake disaster data, the value being finally inversed by constant a, b in above-mentioned formula is respectively: a=-30336, b=6613.9.
After the characteristic constant c obtaining the true altitude h before corresponding to the shake of different buildings, to de novo earthquake, just can assess property loss efficiently by formula.
In a preferred embodiment, by the calculation to historical earthquake data, draw described parameter c and seismic region buildings shake before the corresponding relation of true altitude h be,
When 3 meters≤h<6 rice, c=1.4.
In a preferred embodiment, by the calculation to historical earthquake data, obtain characterisitic parameter c optimum value in several circumstances, as described below:
The corresponding relation of the true altitude h before described parameter c and seismic region buildings shake is,
When 6 meters≤h<12 rice, c=1.3,
When 12 meters≤h<21 rice, c=1.2,
As 21 meters≤h, c=1.1.
Below by actual seismic data, said method of the present invention is verified.
Example 1:
The M6.7 level earthquake of Batang, Sichuan on the 16th April in 1989, according to ground motion parameter and the Intensity Attenuation of each seismograph station record, is obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine,
The number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region is 3,
The seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region is respectively 6,7,8;
By utilizing ENVI remote sensing software to analyze to the historical satellite remote sensing images of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE, draw
Corresponding to the S=1613449.8m of seismic intensity 6
2, S
d=1334245.47m
2,
Corresponding to the S=806724.9m of seismic intensity 7
2, S
d=678429.9m
2,
Corresponding to the S=268908.3m of seismic intensity 8
2, S
d=248757.63m
2,
By utilizing ENVI software to analyze to the satellite remote sensing images before earthquake, calculate the true altitude h before the buildings shake of the collapsing of each earthquake intensity region in seismic region, partial collapse all in scope 6 meters≤h<12 rice,
Therefore seismic intensity is respectively to three earthquake intensity regions of 6,7,8, the value of its characterisitic parameter c is: c=1.3
Therefore, the assessment result L=56939 ten thousand yuan of property loss can be calculated by method of the present invention.
And the realized property loss of this area is 41042 after earthquake, assessment result and actual count data error are (56939-41042)/41042=38.7%, visible method of the present invention and actual result possess higher consistance, thus rapid Estimation can go out earthquake property loss situation.
Example 2:
The M5.6 level earthquake of Ludian, Yunnan on the 10th August in 2004, according to ground motion parameter and the Intensity Attenuation of each seismograph station record, is obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine,
The number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region is 3,
The seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region
kbe respectively 6,7,8;
By utilizing ENVI remote sensing software to analyze to the historical satellite remote sensing images of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE, draw
Corresponding to the S=5552079m of seismic intensity 6
2, S
d=4996871.1m
2,
Corresponding to the S=2776039.5m of seismic intensity 7
2, S
d=2415154.365m
2,
Corresponding to the S=925346.5m of seismic intensity 8
2, S
d=916093.035m
2,
By utilizing ENVI software to analyze to the satellite remote sensing images before earthquake, calculate the true altitude h before the buildings shake of the collapsing of each earthquake intensity region in seismic region, partial collapse all in scope 12 meters≤h<21 rice,
Therefore seismic intensity is respectively to three earthquake intensity regions of 6,7,8, the value of its characterisitic parameter c is: c=1.2
Therefore, the assessment result L=61842 ten thousand yuan of property loss can be calculated by method of the present invention.
And the realized property loss of this area is 43226 after earthquake, assessment result and actual count data error are (61842-43226)/43226=43.1%, visible method of the present invention and actual result possess higher consistance, thus rapid Estimation can go out earthquake property loss situation.
Example 3
January in 1998, the earthquake of Hebei on the 10th Zhangbei County M6.2 level, according to ground motion parameter and the Intensity Attenuation of each seismograph station record, was obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine,
The number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region is 3,
The seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region
kbe respectively 6,7,8;
By utilizing ENVI remote sensing software to analyze to the historical satellite remote sensing images of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE, draw
Corresponding to the S=6206224.8m of seismic intensity 6
2, S
d=5461477.824m
2,
Corresponding to the S=3103112.4m of seismic intensity 7
2, S
d=2482489.92m
2,
Corresponding to the S=1034370.8m of seismic intensity 8
2, S
d=992995.968m
2,
By utilizing ENVI software to analyze to the satellite remote sensing images before earthquake, calculate the true altitude h before the buildings shake of the collapsing of each earthquake intensity region in seismic region, partial collapse all in scope 3 meters≤h<6 rice,
Therefore seismic intensity is respectively to three earthquake intensity regions of 6,7,8, the value of its characterisitic parameter c is: c=1.4
Therefore, the assessment result L=75725 ten thousand yuan of property loss can be calculated by method of the present invention.
And the realized property loss of this area is 84188 after earthquake, assessment result and actual count data error are (84188-75725)/84188=10.1%, visible method of the present invention and actual result possess higher consistance, thus rapid Estimation can go out earthquake property loss situation.
Example 4
-Lai Yuan M5.0 level the earthquake of Liancheng, Fujian on the 26th November in 1992, according to ground motion parameter and the Intensity Attenuation of each seismograph station record, is obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine,
The number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region is 1,
The seismic intensity I in this earthquake intensity region
kbe respectively 6;
By utilizing ENVI remote sensing software to analyze to the historical satellite remote sensing images of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE, draw
The S=1073473m in this earthquake intensity region
2, S
d=858778m
2,
By utilizing ENVI software to analyze to the satellite remote sensing images before earthquake, the true altitude h calculated before the buildings shake of the collapsing of each earthquake intensity region in seismic region, partial collapse is 21 meters≤h,
Therefore for this earthquake intensity region, the value of its characterisitic parameter c is: c=1.1
Therefore, the assessment result L=12852 ten thousand yuan of property loss can be calculated by method of the present invention.
And the realized property loss of this area is 10200 after earthquake, assessment result and actual count data error are (12852-10200)/10200=26%, visible method of the present invention and actual result deviation, for possessing higher consistance, thus rapid Estimation can go out earthquake property loss situation.
Can find out from above 4 cases, property loss assessment method in earthquake provided by the invention, its assessment result and realized property lose number and possess higher consistance, therefore, it is compared with existing earthquake property loss assessment method, accuracy rate has a distinct increment, and can provide reference data for emergency resources demand and post-disaster reconstruction; Thus aid decision making person can formulate resource allocation deployment targetedly.
The foregoing is only the schematic embodiment of the present invention, and be not used to limit scope of the present invention.Any those skilled in the art, the equivalent variations done under the prerequisite not departing from design of the present invention and principle, amendment and combination, all should belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (1)
1. a property loss assessment method in earthquake, for after earthquake disaster occurs, rapid evaluation seismic region property loss quantity L, it is characterized in that, in described earthquake, property loss assessment method comprises the steps:
A, according to the ground motion parameter of each seismograph station record and Intensity Attenuation, obtained the INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION data in earthquake effect region by computing machine, the number k in the earthquake intensity region namely in seismic region and the seismic intensity I in each earthquake intensity region
k;
B, according to seismic region shake before remote sensing images, measure different earthquake intensity region buildings total area S separately in seismic region respectively by computing machine, the unit of wherein said buildings total area S is m
2;
C, occur according to earthquake disaster after the remote sensing images of seismic region, respectively the buildings of different earthquake intensity regions destruction separately in seismic region is identified by computing machine, to destructiveness be collapse, the buildings of partial collapse adds up, and obtain destructiveness be collapse, the damage area S of the buildings of partial collapse
d, wherein said damage area S
dunit be m
2;
D, according to seismic region shake before remote sensing images, obtain the collapsing separately of different earthquake intensity region in seismic region by computing machine, the buildings of partial collapse shake before true altitude h, obtain associated characteristic constant c by described true altitude h, the unit of wherein said true altitude h is rice;
E, the parameter obtained according to above-mentioned steps, by formula
Calculate the property loss quantity L obtaining seismic region, unit ten thousand yuan; A=-30336, b=6613.9 in above-mentioned formula; The corresponding relation of the true altitude h before described parameter c and seismic region buildings shake is: when 3 meters≤h<6 rice, c=1.4; When 6 meters≤h<12 rice, c=1.3; When 12 meters≤h<21 rice, c=1.2; As 21 meters≤h, c=1.1.
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中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究;刘吉夫等;《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》;20081031;第44卷(第5期);第520-523页 * |
基于遥感影像的地震灾害损失评估方法研究与实现;王龙;《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库(电子期刊)基础科学辑》;20070331;第2007(年)卷(第3期);第A012-14页 * |
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