WO2023170964A1 - Vehicle service planning device, vehicle service planning assistance method, and program - Google Patents

Vehicle service planning device, vehicle service planning assistance method, and program Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2023170964A1
WO2023170964A1 PCT/JP2022/011088 JP2022011088W WO2023170964A1 WO 2023170964 A1 WO2023170964 A1 WO 2023170964A1 JP 2022011088 W JP2022011088 W JP 2022011088W WO 2023170964 A1 WO2023170964 A1 WO 2023170964A1
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people
route
stop
passengers
vehicle
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PCT/JP2022/011088
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French (fr)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
仁 清水
昭典 藤野
宏 澤田
修功 上田
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日本電信電話株式会社
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Priority to PCT/JP2022/011088 priority Critical patent/WO2023170964A1/en
Publication of WO2023170964A1 publication Critical patent/WO2023170964A1/en

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/123—Traffic control systems for road vehicles indicating the position of vehicles, e.g. scheduled vehicles; Managing passenger vehicles circulating according to a fixed timetable, e.g. buses, trains, trams
    • G08G1/127—Traffic control systems for road vehicles indicating the position of vehicles, e.g. scheduled vehicles; Managing passenger vehicles circulating according to a fixed timetable, e.g. buses, trains, trams to a central station ; Indicators in a central station

Definitions

  • the present disclosure relates to a vehicle operation planning device, a vehicle operation planning support method, and a program.
  • Non-Patent Document 1 a technique has been proposed that minimizes the travel distance of buses. Furthermore, a technology has been proposed that sequentially observes demand and learns an optimal bus operation plan (Non-Patent Document 2).
  • Patent Document 1 a technology has also been proposed in which the number of people in a queue at a bus stop is observed using a surveillance camera and used for bus operation planning.
  • Non-Patent Document 1 calculates a bus operation plan that minimizes the bus travel distance in relation to passenger demand, it is difficult to grasp the actual demand in advance. Furthermore, although the technology disclosed in Non-Patent Document 2 sequentially observes passenger demand and determines a bus operation plan that minimizes the bus travel distance, it is not possible to minimize passenger waiting time. Further, although the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 allows the number of people in a queue at a bus stop to be observed using a surveillance camera, it is not possible to update the bus operation plan based on the number of people in the queue.
  • the present invention has been made in view of the above points, and provides a bus etc. that minimizes the sum of the cost of the operating company of the bus etc. and the cost of the passengers including waiting time at the bus stop.
  • the purpose is to create a vehicle operation plan.
  • the invention according to claim 1 is a vehicle operation planning device that plans vehicle operations, which includes the number of people in a queue at each stop at the current observed time for each route of vehicles, and the current time from the first train. Waiting to estimate the number of people who selected routes for each route of vehicles at each stop, aggregated by departure point and destination, from the sum of the cumulative number of passengers up until now and the number of people who selected routes in the operation plan at the previous observation time.
  • the operating company of the vehicle and the number of passengers are determined based on the number of people in line estimating the number of passengers, the predicted number of passengers expected after the current observation time, and the number of people selected on the route at the current observation time estimated by the number of people in line estimating the number of passengers in the queue.
  • This is a vehicle operation planning device that includes an operation plan creation section that creates an operation plan assuming that the vehicle will act rationally after the current observation time.
  • the present invention by considering the actual number of people in the queue, the sum of the cost of the vehicle operating company and the cost of passengers including waiting time at the stop can be minimized. This has the effect that a vehicle operation plan can be created.
  • FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a communication system 1 in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 1 is a hardware configuration diagram of a bus operation planning device according to an embodiment. It is a functional block diagram of the bus operation planning device in an embodiment. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages the upper limit of the number of stops of each stop. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages a bus boarding time queue. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages a penalty matrix (d).
  • d penalty matrix
  • FIG. 3 is a sequence diagram showing a distribution process of operation plan data. It is a flowchart which shows the preparation process of an operation plan. It is a flowchart which shows the preparation process of an operation plan. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an objective function expressed as an integer linear programming problem.
  • FIG. 2 is a diagram showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem.
  • FIG. 2 is a diagram showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem.
  • FIG. 2 is a diagram showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem. It is a diagram explaining variables. It is a diagram showing a passenger's route selection plan (variable z). It is a diagram showing a matrix number planning (variable w). It is a diagram showing a bus route operation plan (variable V).
  • (a) is a diagram showing one item (record) of the number of people in queue DB
  • (b) is a diagram showing the cumulative total in one item (record) of the number of passengers DB
  • (c) is the optimization result at time (t-1)
  • (d) is a diagram showing the estimation result of the number of people in the queue at time (t).
  • FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a communication system 1 in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • the communication system 1 is constructed by a bus operation planning device 2, sensors 6a, 6b, and a communication terminal 9.
  • the bus operation planning device 2 is a device that plans on-demand bus operations, which are expected to develop in the future.
  • On-demand bus service differs from the conventional bus service, which operates on a fixed route at a predetermined time (strictly speaking, at a "date and time"), by taking into account the number of people queuing at a stop in real time. This is a method to flexibly increase or decrease the number of buses on specific routes.
  • the bus operation planning device 2 of this embodiment not only considers the number of people waiting in a queue for a predetermined route at a stop, but also takes into account the personnel costs of the bus company, the fuel costs of the bus, etc., and makes a comprehensive judgment. Create a bus schedule.
  • the bus operation planning device 2 is an example of a vehicle operation planning device. In the future, vehicles will also include on-demand taxis, etc., which will provide services such as driving in predetermined alleys.
  • a signpost 5a for a route bound for a and a signpost 5b for a route bound for b are installed. Further, the signpost 5a is provided with a sensor 6a for observing the number of people in the queue for the route bound for a. Similarly, the signpost 5b is provided with a sensor 6b for observing the number of people in the queue for the line bound for b. Each sensor 6a, 6b transmits data indicating the number of people in each queue to the bus operation planning device 2 in real time via a communication network 100 such as the Internet. Manage the number of people in line.
  • a bus 8 is waiting at the office 7 of the bus operating company, and the bus 8 is equipped with a communication terminal 9.
  • the communication terminal 9 receives the data of the operation plan according to the bus operation plan from the bus operation planning device 2 via the communication network 100, so that the bus 8 departs from the office 7 at the time according to the operation plan, Operate routes according to the operation plan.
  • any one of the plurality of signposts 5a, 5b, etc. will be referred to as a "signpost 5.”
  • any sensor among the plurality of sensors 6a, 6b, etc. will be referred to as “sensor 6”.
  • FIG. 1 for convenience of explanation, one bus operation planning device 2 is shown, but there may be a plurality of bus operation planning devices. However, even if there is a plurality of bus operation planning devices, they will be collectively referred to as the bus operation planning device 2.
  • one stop 4 is shown in FIG. 1, there are actually multiple stops. Furthermore, in FIG. 1, one stop 4 has two route sign posts 5a and 5b installed, but one stop may have one route sign post, and one stop 4 has two route sign posts 5a and 5b installed. There may be three or more route signposts installed. The number of sensors 6 increases or decreases according to the number of signposts 5. Further, although FIG. 1 shows a case where one bus 8 is waiting at one business office 7, a plurality of buses may be waiting. Each of the multiple buses is equipped with a communication terminal.
  • the communication terminal 9 may not be installed on the bus 8, but may be installed in the administrative office of the business office 7, etc. In this case, the office manager informs the bus driver of the bus's departure time and route.
  • FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of the bus operation planning device according to the embodiment.
  • the bus schedule device 2 includes a processor 201, a memory 202, an auxiliary storage device 203, a connection device 204, a communication device 205, and a drive device 206. Note that each piece of hardware constituting the bus operation planning device 2 is interconnected via a bus 207.
  • the processor 201 plays the role of a control unit that controls the entire bus operation planning device 2, and includes various calculation devices such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit). Processor 201 reads various programs onto memory 202 and executes them. Note that the processor 201 may include GPGPU (General-purpose computing on graphics processing units).
  • GPGPU General-purpose computing on graphics processing units
  • the memory 202 includes main storage devices such as ROM (Read Only Memory) and RAM (Random Access Memory).
  • the processor 201 and the memory 202 form a so-called computer, and when the processor 201 executes various programs read onto the memory 202, the computer realizes various functions.
  • the auxiliary storage device 203 stores various programs and various information used when the various programs are executed by the processor 201.
  • connection device 204 is a connection device that connects an external device (for example, a display device 210, an operation device 211) and the bus operation planning device 2.
  • the communication device 205 is a communication device for transmitting and receiving various information with other devices.
  • the drive device 206 is a device for setting the recording medium 230.
  • the recording medium 230 herein includes a medium that records information optically, electrically, or magnetically, such as a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read-Only Memory), a flexible disk, and a magneto-optical disk. Further, the recording medium 230 may include a semiconductor memory that electrically records information, such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) or a flash memory.
  • the various programs to be installed in the auxiliary storage device 203 are installed by, for example, setting the distributed recording medium 230 in the drive device 206 and reading out the various programs recorded on the recording medium 230 by the drive device 206. be done.
  • various programs installed in the auxiliary storage device 203 may be installed by being downloaded from a network via the communication device 205.
  • FIG. 3 is a functional configuration diagram of the bus operation planning device in the embodiment.
  • the bus operation planning device 2 includes a transmitting/receiving section 21, an operation plan creating section 22, a queue estimating section 23, and a storage/reading section 29.
  • Each of these parts is a function that the processor 201 causes the bus operation planning device 2 to implement using one or more programs installed in the bus operation planning device 2.
  • a stop DB (Data Base) 31 a route DB 32, a queue number DB 33, a passenger number DB 34, and a demand forecast DB 35 are constructed.
  • FIG. 4 is a conceptual diagram showing a table constituting the stop DB and a table for managing the upper limit of the number of cars stopping at each stop.
  • the value of the upper limit E of the number of buses stopping is managed for each stop ID for identifying the stop. For example, it is indicated that only three buses can stop at the stop indicated by the stop ID "bs1" at the same time.
  • the ID is an example of identification information (the same applies hereinafter).
  • FIG. 5 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the stop DB and a table for managing a bus boarding time matrix. As shown in FIG. 5, the boarding time (minutes) when the bus travels between each stop is managed based on the relationship between the boarding stop ID and the alighting stop ID.
  • FIG. 6 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the stop DB and a table for managing a penalty matrix.
  • the time (minutes) it takes for a passenger to travel is managed based on the relationship between the departure point ID or destination ID and the stop ID. For example, it takes 0 minutes to walk from your home (d1), which is the departure point, to the bus stop closest to your home (ID: bs1), but it takes 30 minutes to walk from your home (d1) to the bus stop (ID: bs2), so This will be treated as a penalty when using each bus stop.
  • FIG. 7 is a conceptual diagram showing a table constituting the stop DB and a penalty matrix.
  • the time (minutes) required for a passenger to travel without using a bus route is managed based on the relationship between the departure point ID and the destination ID. For example, when going from your home, which is your starting point, to a movie theater at your destination, this is equivalent to the criteria for determining whether using a bus route is more advantageous in terms of travel time. (minutes) will be treated as a penalty.
  • FIG. 8 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the route DB.
  • the route DB 32 stop IDs from the first stop ID to the last stop are managed for each route ID.
  • FIG. 9 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the queuing number DB (observation data).
  • the number of people queuing DB 33 manages the number of people queuing in real time actually observed by the sensor 6 for each predetermined route ID using the stop ID of the stop of a predetermined boarding at a predetermined time. As a result, for example, as shown in FIG. 1, even if the stop 4 is the same, if the signposts 5a and 5b of the lines on which the lines are lined up are different, the number of people queuing can be managed separately.
  • FIG. 10 is a conceptual diagram showing a table forming the passenger number DB (observation data).
  • the passenger number DB 34 the number of passengers actually observed by the sensor 6 is managed for each predetermined route ID using a stop ID indicating a stop for a predetermined ride in a predetermined time period. For example, 30 people boarded one or more buses on the same route (ID; r1) at the same stop (ID: bs1) in the 10 minutes from 5:00 to 5:10 on 2022.1.1. It has been shown that
  • FIG. 11 is a conceptual diagram showing the tables that constitute the demand forecast DB.
  • the demand forecast DB 35 manages the predicted number of passengers (predicted demand number) for each predetermined destination ID at a predetermined departure point ID in a predetermined time period. For example, the number of passengers predicted to travel from a departure point in a certain area (for example, around 1-1 Street) to a certain destination in a certain area (for example, around 9-9 Street) is Managed. Note that "passengers" include not only those who use buses, but also those who consider using buses and then travel without using buses.
  • the transmitting/receiving unit 21 transmits and receives data to and from other devices.
  • the transmitting/receiving unit 21 receives observation data from the sensor 6 or transmits data on the current (t) operation plan to the communication terminal 9 related to the bus 8.
  • the operation plan creation unit 22 calculates the number of people waiting in line at the current observation time (hereinafter, “current observation time” may be referred to as “current time”) for each route of the vehicle at each stop, and the number of people queuing from the first train to the current time. From the sum of the cumulative number of passengers and the number of people who selected the route in the operation plan at the previous observation time, we estimate the number of people who selected the route for each route of the vehicles at each stop, tabulated by departure point and destination.
  • the queuing number estimating unit 23 determines whether the vehicle operating company and passengers are at the current observation time based on the predicted number of passengers expected after the current time and the number of route selections at the current time estimated by the queuing number estimating unit 23.
  • the operation plan is created assuming that the vehicle will behave rationally thereafter.
  • the storage/reading unit 29 stores predetermined data in each of the DBs 31 to 35 and reads predetermined data from each of the DBs 31 to 35.
  • FIG. 12 is a sequence diagram showing the operation plan data distribution process.
  • a sensor 6a installed on the signpost 5a of the route bound for bus stop 4 observes the number of people queuing, and the observation data indicating the result of this observation is sent to the bus operation planning device 2. (S1).
  • the transmitting/receiving section 21 of the bus operation planning device 2 receives the observed data, and the storage/reading section 29 stores the observed data in the number of queues DB 33.
  • the observation data shows one record in FIG.
  • the sensor 6b installed on the signpost 5b of the route bound for bus stop 4 observes the number of people in the queue, and transmits observation data indicating the result of this observation to the bus operation planning device 2 (S2).
  • the transmitting/receiving section 21 of the bus operation planning device 2 receives the observed data, and the storage/reading section 29 stores the observed data in the number of queues DB 33. Note that both the process (S1) and the process (S2) are repeated periodically (for example, once every 10 minutes).
  • FIGS. 13 to 23 are flowcharts showing the operation plan creation process.
  • FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an objective function expressed as an integer linear programming problem.
  • each part P1 to P7 of the objective function indicates the following contents.
  • FIGS. 16 to 18 are diagrams showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem.
  • FIG. 19 is a diagram explaining each variable shown in FIGS. 15 to 18.
  • Equation 1 The number of passengers is equal to the sum of the number of people choosing other than the bus and the number of people boarding the bus.
  • Equation 2 The difference between the total number of people queuing and the total number of people riding the bus.
  • Constraint formula 3 where is the number of people in the queue: Constraint that all passengers board the last bus (the number of people in the queue is 0 at the last time) Equation 4: The total number of passengers is less than or equal to bus capacity C.
  • Constraint Equation 5 The total number of buses in operation is less than or equal to the upper limit number U.
  • Constraint Equation 6 The total number of buses stopping at stop m is, Constraint equations 7 to 10, where the number of buses is less than or equal to the upper limit E_m: Constraint equation 11, where the number of buses is a non-negative integer: Constraint equation 12, where the number of buses is a non-negative integer: The number of passengers who wish to travel (passenger demand forecast) is a non-negative integer.
  • Constraint Equation 13 The current number of people selected z is given as a non-negative integer.
  • Constraint Equation 14 The current number of people queuing w is given as a non-negative integer. 14 will be explained.
  • the storage/reading unit 29 reads the inter-stop boarding time matrix ⁇ , the penalty matrix d, and the maximum number of stopping buses E from the stop DB 31, and reads bus route candidates from the route DB 32.
  • the number of passengers (predicted demand number) x is read out from the demand forecast DB 35.
  • the operation plan creation unit 22 initializes the current time t to 0 in the objective function of FIG. 15 (S12).
  • a "temporary operation plan” is created for the time being, and in the processes (S15 to S17) described later, a "temporary operation plan" is created based on observation data indicating the current number of people in the queue obtained from the sensor 6 of each stop. , an ⁇ actual operation plan'' for operating the waiting buses is created.
  • the contents of the operation plan will be briefly explained (see FIG. 19).
  • Number of non-passengers a is the number of people who travel to their destination without using the bus (those who choose not to use the bus), assuming that people who queue at the bus stop always get on the bus. It is the number of passengers indicating the number of people.
  • Numberer of passengers b is the number of passengers, which is the number of people who travel by bus (people who choose to ride the bus).
  • the "route selection planned number of passengers z" indicates the number of passengers who select and board a bus on a predetermined route at a predetermined stop in order to travel from a predetermined departure point to a predetermined destination during a predetermined time period.
  • the "planned number of passengers w" indicates the number of passengers who want to travel from a predetermined departure point to a predetermined destination at a predetermined time and line up in a queue for a predetermined route.
  • Numberer of buses in operation V indicates the number of buses operating on a predetermined route during a predetermined time period.
  • the operation plan creation unit 22 sets the current time t to (t+1) in the objective function of FIG. 15 (S14).
  • the storage/reading unit 29 reads the number of people queuing w(t) at the current time t for each bus route at each stop from the number of people queuing DB 33, and reads out the number of people queuing w(t) at the current time t for each bus route at each stop from the number of passengers DB 34.
  • the number of passengers b(t) is read out (S15).
  • the number of people in the queue estimating unit 23 calculates the sum of the number of people in the queue for each bus route at each stop w(t) and the cumulative total of the number of passengers b(t) and (a part of (Equation 2) ), from the route selection z(t-1) of the operation plan ((t-1) version), estimate the route selection z(t) for each bus route at each stop tabulated by departure point and destination (S16 ).
  • the passenger route selection plan (variable z), the queue number plan (variable w), and the bus route operation plan (variable V) will be explained using FIGS. 20 to 22.
  • FIG. 20 is a diagram showing a passenger's route selection plan (variable z). As shown in FIG. 20, in the data of the passenger's route selection plan, for each stop ID and route ID of the boarding stop in a predetermined time period, the departure point ID, the stop ID of the alighting stop, and the destination ID are used. , and the number of route selections (z) are associated.
  • FIG. 21 is a diagram showing the matrix number planning (variable w). As shown in FIG. 21, in the queuing number planning data, the stop ID of the boarding stop, route ID, and queuing number planning (w) are associated for each time. Note that the number of people in the queue (w) shown in FIG. 9 is the number of people in the queue actually observed by the sensor 6, whereas the number of people in the queue (w) in FIG. 21 is the number of people who are planning to queue. (planned) number of people in line.
  • FIG. 22 is a diagram showing a bus route operation plan (variable V). As shown in FIG. 22, in the bus route operation plan data, a route ID and the number (V) of buses that should operate on the route related to this route ID are associated with each time slot.
  • FIG. 23 (a) is a diagram showing one item (record) of the number of people in queue DB, (b) is a diagram showing the cumulative total in one item (record) of the number of passengers DB, and (c) is the optimum at time (t-1). (d) is a diagram showing the estimation result of the number of people in the queue at time (t).
  • FIG. 23(a) is data that shows one record of FIG. 9 again for reference.
  • FIG. 23(b) is data showing the cumulative number of passengers from the first train in one record of FIG. 10 for reference.
  • the number of passengers (b) in FIG. 23(b) is a value corresponding to b in (Equation 2) of the constraint condition.
  • the number of people who lined up at the sign post for the predetermined route (r1) at the predetermined stop (ID: bs1) between 5:10 and the first train is 36 (36 people lined up at 5:10).
  • the operation plan creation unit 22 determines that the operating company and passengers will act rationally after the observation based on the assumed passenger demand forecast x and route selection z(t) after the current time t. Assuming this, an operation plan (T version) (number of non-boarders a, number of passengers b, planned number of route selection z, planned number of people in line w, number of operating vehicles V) is created (S17).
  • the transmitting/receiving unit 21 distributes the data of the bus operation plan (T version) (S18/S4 in FIG. 4).
  • the operation plan creation unit 22 determines whether the bus company has ended its operations (S19). If the business has not ended (S19; NO), the process returns to the process of FIG. 13 (S14). After this, in the process (S15), the storage/reading unit 29 updates the number of passengers b(t) at the current time t. On the other hand, if the business has ended (S19; YES), the operation plan creation process ends.
  • the bus operation planning device 2 formulates an optimization problem in which the waiting time at the route signpost at the stop is used as the objective function and the queue is incorporated as the constraint.
  • the breakdown is estimated using the observed value from the sensor 6 of the number of people in the queue (we know which route to take, but we do not know which stop to get off at, so it is estimated: multiple routes at one stop), An optimal solution can be found that takes into account the benefits for both the operating company and passengers.
  • the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and may have the following configuration or processing (operation).
  • Each functional configuration of the bus operation planning device 2 can be realized by a computer and a program as described above, but this program can also be recorded on a (non-temporary) recording medium and presented, or it can be provided through a network such as the Internet. It is also possible.
  • Communication system 2 Bus operation planning device (an example of vehicle operation planning device) 4 Stops 5a, 5b Signposts 6a, 6b Sensor 7 Office 8 Bus (an example of vehicle) 9 Communication terminal 10 Terminal position 21 Transmitting/receiving section (an example of a transmitting section, an example of a receiving section) 22 Operation plan creation section 23 Queue number estimation section 29 Storage/reading section 31 Stop DB 32 Route DB 33 Number of people in line DB 34 Number of passengers DB 35 Demand forecast DB 100 Communication network

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Abstract

The purpose of the present invention is to create a service plan for vehicles such as busses whereby it is possible to minimize the sum of the costs of a company operating vehicles such as busses and the costs to passengers including the time spent waiting at bus stops.　Accordingly, the present disclosure is a vehicle service planning device that is for planning vehicle service and comprises: a queuing number estimation unit that estimates the number of people choosing a route for each vehicle route at each of stops totaled by departure location and destination on the basis of the total of the number of people waiting in queues at the current observation time for each of the vehicle routes at each of the stops and the cumulative number of passengers from the first departure to the current time, and on the basis of the number of people choosing the routes in a service plan at the previous observation time; and a service plan creation unit for creating a service plan under the assumption that the company operating the vehicles and the passengers will act in a rational manner starting from the current observation time on the basis of the predicted passenger demand expected starting from the current observation time and the number of people choosing the routes at the current observation time estimated by the queuing number estimation unit.

Description

車両運行計画装置、車両運行計画支援方法、及びプログラムVehicle operation planning device, vehicle operation planning support method, and program
　本開示内容は、車両運行計画装置、車両運行計画支援方法、及びプログラムに関する。 The present disclosure relates to a vehicle operation planning device, a vehicle operation planning support method, and a program.
　近年、バス運行計画を作成するため、これまで様々な技術が提案されている。例えば、乗客の需要を満たす計画の中で、バスの移動距離を最短とする技術が提案されている（非特許文献１）。また、逐次的に需要を観測して、最適なバス運行計画を学習する技術も提案されている（非特許文献２）。 In recent years, various technologies have been proposed for creating bus operation plans. For example, in a plan to meet passenger demand, a technique has been proposed that minimizes the travel distance of buses (Non-Patent Document 1). Furthermore, a technology has been proposed that sequentially observes demand and learns an optimal bus operation plan (Non-Patent Document 2).
　ところで、監視カメラでバス停の待ち行列の人数を観測して、バス運行計画に利用する技術も提案されている（特許文献１）。 Incidentally, a technology has also been proposed in which the number of people in a queue at a bus stop is observed using a surveillance camera and used for bus operation planning (Patent Document 1).
特許第５０９１９０８号公報Patent No. 5091908
　しかしながら、非特許文献１の技術は，乗客の需要に対してバス移動距離を最小とするバス運行計画を求めるが、現実に近い需要を事前に把握することが困難である。また、非特許文献２の技術は、乗客の需要を逐次的に観測して、バス移動距離を最小とするバス運行計画を求めるが、乗客の待ち時間を最小化の対象とすることができない。更に、特許文献１の技術は、監視カメラによりバス停の待ち行列の人数を観測できるが、待ち行列人数に基づいてバス運行計画を更新することまではできない。 However, although the technique of Non-Patent Document 1 calculates a bus operation plan that minimizes the bus travel distance in relation to passenger demand, it is difficult to grasp the actual demand in advance. Furthermore, although the technology disclosed in Non-Patent Document 2 sequentially observes passenger demand and determines a bus operation plan that minimizes the bus travel distance, it is not possible to minimize passenger waiting time. Further, although the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 allows the number of people in a queue at a bus stop to be observed using a surveillance camera, it is not possible to update the bus operation plan based on the number of people in the queue.
　本発明は、上記の点に鑑みてなされたものであり、バス等の車両の運行会社のコストと、停留所での待ち時間を含めた乗客のコストとの和を最小化するようなバス等の車両の運行計画を作成することを目的とする。 The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and provides a bus etc. that minimizes the sum of the cost of the operating company of the bus etc. and the cost of the passengers including waiting time at the bus stop. The purpose is to create a vehicle operation plan.
　上記目的を達成するため、請求項１に係る発明は、車両運行の計画を行う車両運行計画装置であって、各停留所の車両の路線毎の現在の観測時刻における待ち行列人数と始発から現在時刻までの乗車人数の累計との和と、一つ前の観測時刻における運行計画の路線選択人数から、出発地別かつ目的地別に集計した各停留所の車両の路線毎の路線選択人数を推定する待ち行列人数推定部と、現在の観測時刻以降の想定する乗客需要の予測人数及び前記待ち行列人数推定部によって推定された現在の観測時刻における前記路線選択人数から、前記車両の運行会社と乗客が前記現在の観測時刻以降に合理的に行動することを仮定して運行計画を作成する運行計画作成部と、を有する車両運行計画装置である。 In order to achieve the above object, the invention according to claim 1 is a vehicle operation planning device that plans vehicle operations, which includes the number of people in a queue at each stop at the current observed time for each route of vehicles, and the current time from the first train. Waiting to estimate the number of people who selected routes for each route of vehicles at each stop, aggregated by departure point and destination, from the sum of the cumulative number of passengers up until now and the number of people who selected routes in the operation plan at the previous observation time. The operating company of the vehicle and the number of passengers are determined based on the number of people in line estimating the number of passengers, the predicted number of passengers expected after the current observation time, and the number of people selected on the route at the current observation time estimated by the number of people in line estimating the number of passengers in the queue. This is a vehicle operation planning device that includes an operation plan creation section that creates an operation plan assuming that the vehicle will act rationally after the current observation time.
　以上説明したように本発明によれば、実際の待ち行列の人数を考慮することで、車両の運行会社のコストと停留所での待ち時間を含めた乗客のコストとの和を最小化するような車両運行計画を作成することができるという効果を奏する。 As explained above, according to the present invention, by considering the actual number of people in the queue, the sum of the cost of the vehicle operating company and the cost of passengers including waiting time at the stop can be minimized. This has the effect that a vehicle operation plan can be created.
本発明の実施形態における通信システム１の概略図である。1 is a schematic diagram of a communication system 1 in an embodiment of the present invention. 実施形態に係るバス運行計画装置のハードウェア構成図である。FIG. 1 is a hardware configuration diagram of a bus operation planning device according to an embodiment. 実施形態におけるバス運行計画装置の機能構成図である。It is a functional block diagram of the bus operation planning device in an embodiment. 停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、各停留所の停車台数の上限を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages the upper limit of the number of stops of each stop. 停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、バス乗車時間行列を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages a bus boarding time queue. 停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、ペナルティ行列(d)を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages a penalty matrix (d). 停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、ペナルティ行列(d)を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises a stop DB, and which shows the table which manages a penalty matrix (d). 路線ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram showing the table which constitutes route DB. 行列人数ＤＢ（観測データ）を構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises DB (observation data) of the number of people in line. 乗車人数ＤＢ（観測データ）を構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram which shows the table which comprises passenger number DB (observation data). 需要予測ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。It is a conceptual diagram showing the table which constitutes demand forecast DB. 運行計画データの配信処理を示すシーケンス図である。FIG. 3 is a sequence diagram showing a distribution process of operation plan data. 運行計画の作成処理を示すフローチャートである。It is a flowchart which shows the preparation process of an operation plan. 運行計画の作成処理を示すフローチャートである。It is a flowchart which shows the preparation process of an operation plan. 整数線形計画問題として表現した目的関数を示す図である。FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an objective function expressed as an integer linear programming problem. 整数線形計画問題として表現した制約条件を示す図である。FIG. 2 is a diagram showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem. 整数線形計画問題として表現した制約条件を示す図である。FIG. 2 is a diagram showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem. 整数線形計画問題として表現した制約条件を示す図である。FIG. 2 is a diagram showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem. 変数を説明する図である。It is a diagram explaining variables. 乗客の路線選択計画(変数z)を示す図である。It is a diagram showing a passenger's route selection plan (variable z). 行列人数計画（変数w）を示す図である。It is a diagram showing a matrix number planning (variable w). バス路線の運行計画（変数V）を示す図である。It is a diagram showing a bus route operation plan (variable V). （ａ）は行列人数ＤＢの一項目（レコード）を示す図、（ｂ）は乗車人数ＤＢの一項（レコード）における累計を示す図、（ｃ）は時刻(t-1)における最適化結果を示す図、（ｄ）は時刻(t)における待ち行列人数の推定結果を示す図である。(a) is a diagram showing one item (record) of the number of people in queue DB, (b) is a diagram showing the cumulative total in one item (record) of the number of passengers DB, (c) is the optimization result at time (t-1) (d) is a diagram showing the estimation result of the number of people in the queue at time (t).
　〔全体構成の概略〕
　図１は、本発明の実施形態における通信システム１の概略図である。通信システム１は、バス運行計画装置２、センサ６ａ，６ｂ、及び通信端末９によって構築されている。 [Overview of overall configuration]
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a communication system 1 in an embodiment of the present invention. The communication system 1 is constructed by a bus operation planning device 2, sensors 6a, 6b, and a communication terminal 9.
　バス運行計画装置２は、今後発展が見込まれるオンデマンドのバス運行の計画を行う装置である。オンデマンドのバス運行は、これまでのように予め決められた時刻（厳密には「日時」）に、決められた路線を運行する場合とは異なり、リアルタイムで停留所の待ち行列の人数を考慮して柔軟に特定の路線に対してバスを増便又は減便する方法である。 The bus operation planning device 2 is a device that plans on-demand bus operations, which are expected to develop in the future. On-demand bus service differs from the conventional bus service, which operates on a fixed route at a predetermined time (strictly speaking, at a "date and time"), by taking into account the number of people queuing at a stop in real time. This is a method to flexibly increase or decrease the number of buses on specific routes.
　本実施形態のバス運行計画装置２は、停留所の所定路線の待ち行列の人数を考慮するだけでなく、バス会社の人件費やバスの燃料費等も考慮することで、総合的に判断してバス運行計画を作成する。なお、バス運行計画装置２は、車両運行計画装置の一例である。車両には、将来、所定の路地等を走行するサービスが行われるオンデマンドのタクシー等も含まれる。 The bus operation planning device 2 of this embodiment not only considers the number of people waiting in a queue for a predetermined route at a stop, but also takes into account the personnel costs of the bus company, the fuel costs of the bus, etc., and makes a comprehensive judgment. Create a bus schedule. Note that the bus operation planning device 2 is an example of a vehicle operation planning device. In the future, vehicles will also include on-demand taxis, etc., which will provide services such as driving in predetermined alleys.
　図１では、ある停留所４に、ａ行きの路線の標識柱５ａと、ｂ行きの標識柱５ｂが設置されている。また、標識柱５ａには、ａ行きの路線の待ち行列の人数を観測するためのセンサ６ａが設けられている。同様に、標識柱５ｂには、ｂ行きの路線の待ち行列の人数を観測するためのセンサ６ｂが設けられている。各センサ６ａ，６ｂは、インターネット等の通信ネットワーク１００を介して、バス運行計画装置２に対し、リアルタイムで各待ち行列の人数を示すデータを送信することで、バス運行計画装置２が、各待ち行列の人数を管理する。 In FIG. 1, at a certain stop 4, a signpost 5a for a route bound for a and a signpost 5b for a route bound for b are installed. Further, the signpost 5a is provided with a sensor 6a for observing the number of people in the queue for the route bound for a. Similarly, the signpost 5b is provided with a sensor 6b for observing the number of people in the queue for the line bound for b. Each sensor 6a, 6b transmits data indicating the number of people in each queue to the bus operation planning device 2 in real time via a communication network 100 such as the Internet. Manage the number of people in line.
　また、バスの運行会社の営業所７にはバス８が待機しており、バス８には通信端末９が搭載されている。通信端末９が、通信ネットワーク１００を介してバス運行計画装置２からバス運行計画に従った運行計画のデータを受信することで、バス８が運行計画に従った時間に営業所７から出発し、運行計画に従った路線を運行する。 Furthermore, a bus 8 is waiting at the office 7 of the bus operating company, and the bus 8 is equipped with a communication terminal 9. The communication terminal 9 receives the data of the operation plan according to the bus operation plan from the bus operation planning device 2 via the communication network 100, so that the bus 8 departs from the office 7 at the time according to the operation plan, Operate routes according to the operation plan.
　なお、以降、複数の標識柱５ａ，５ｂ等のうち任意の標識柱を「標識柱５」と示す。また、複数のセンサ６ａ，６ｂ等のうち任意のセンサを「センサ６」と示す。また、図１では、説明の便宜上、１つのバス運行計画装置２が示されているが、複数のバス運行計画装置があってもよい。但し、複数のバス運行計画装置がある場合であっても、まとめてバス運行計画装置２と示す。 Hereinafter, any one of the plurality of signposts 5a, 5b, etc. will be referred to as a "signpost 5." Further, any sensor among the plurality of sensors 6a, 6b, etc. will be referred to as "sensor 6". Further, in FIG. 1, for convenience of explanation, one bus operation planning device 2 is shown, but there may be a plurality of bus operation planning devices. However, even if there is a plurality of bus operation planning devices, they will be collectively referred to as the bus operation planning device 2.
　また、図１では、１つの停留所４が示されているが、実際には複数の停留所が存在する。更に、図１では、１つの停留所４に２つの路線用の標識柱５ａ，５ｂが設置されているが、１つの停留所に１つの路線用の標識柱が設置されていてもよく、１つの停留所に３つ以上の路線用の標識柱が設置されていてもよい。センサ６は標識柱５の数に従って増減する。また、図１では、１つの営業所７に１台のバス８が待機している場合について示されているが、複数のバスが待機していても良い。複数のバスのそれぞれに通信端末が搭載されている。 Furthermore, although one stop 4 is shown in FIG. 1, there are actually multiple stops. Furthermore, in FIG. 1, one stop 4 has two route sign posts 5a and 5b installed, but one stop may have one route sign post, and one stop 4 has two route sign posts 5a and 5b installed. There may be three or more route signposts installed. The number of sensors 6 increases or decreases according to the number of signposts 5. Further, although FIG. 1 shows a case where one bus 8 is waiting at one business office 7, a plurality of buses may be waiting. Each of the multiple buses is equipped with a communication terminal.
　更に、バス８には通信端末９が搭載されず、営業所７の事務管理室等に設置されていてもよい。この場合、事務管理者からバスの運転手にバスの出発時間と路線が伝えられる。 Furthermore, the communication terminal 9 may not be installed on the bus 8, but may be installed in the administrative office of the business office 7, etc. In this case, the office manager informs the bus driver of the bus's departure time and route.
　〔バス運行計画装置のハードウェア構成〕
　次に、図２を用いて、バス運行計画装置２のハードウェア構成について説明する。図２は、実施形態に係るバス運行計画装置のハードウェア構成図である。 [Hardware configuration of bus operation planning device]
Next, the hardware configuration of the bus operation planning device 2 will be explained using FIG. 2. FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of the bus operation planning device according to the embodiment.
　図３に示されているように、バス運行計画装置２は、プロセッサ２０１、メモリ２０２、補助記憶装置２０３、接続装置２０４、通信装置２０５、ドライブ装置２０６を有する。なお、バス運行計画装置２を構成する各ハードウェアは、バス２０７を介して相互に接続される。 As shown in FIG. 3, the bus schedule device 2 includes a processor 201, a memory 202, an auxiliary storage device 203, a connection device 204, a communication device 205, and a drive device 206. Note that each piece of hardware constituting the bus operation planning device 2 is interconnected via a bus 207.
　プロセッサ２０１は、バス運行計画装置２全体の制御を行う制御部の役割を果たし、ＣＰＵ（Central Processing Unit）等の各種演算デバイスを有する。プロセッサ２０１は、各種プログラムをメモリ２０２上に読み出して実行する。なお、プロセッサ２０１には、ＧＰＧＰＵ(General-purpose computing on graphics processing units)が含まれていてもよい。 The processor 201 plays the role of a control unit that controls the entire bus operation planning device 2, and includes various calculation devices such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit). Processor 201 reads various programs onto memory 202 and executes them. Note that the processor 201 may include GPGPU (General-purpose computing on graphics processing units).
　メモリ２０２は、ＲＯＭ（Read Only Memory）、ＲＡＭ（Random Access Memory）等の主記憶デバイスを有する。プロセッサ２０１とメモリ２０２とは、いわゆるコンピュータを形成し、プロセッサ２０１が、メモリ２０２上に読み出した各種プログラムを実行することで、当該コンピュータは各種機能を実現する。 The memory 202 includes main storage devices such as ROM (Read Only Memory) and RAM (Random Access Memory). The processor 201 and the memory 202 form a so-called computer, and when the processor 201 executes various programs read onto the memory 202, the computer realizes various functions.
　補助記憶装置２０３は、各種プログラムや、各種プログラムがプロセッサ２０１によって実行される際に用いられる各種情報を格納する。 The auxiliary storage device 203 stores various programs and various information used when the various programs are executed by the processor 201.
　接続装置２０４は、外部装置（例えば、表示装置２１０、操作装置２１１）とバス運行計画装置２とを接続する接続デバイスである。 The connection device 204 is a connection device that connects an external device (for example, a display device 210, an operation device 211) and the bus operation planning device 2.
　通信装置２０５は、他の装置との間で各種情報を送受信するための通信デバイスである。 The communication device 205 is a communication device for transmitting and receiving various information with other devices.
　ドライブ装置２０６は記録媒体２３０をセットするためのデバイスである。ここでいう記録媒体２３０には、ＣＤ－ＲＯＭ(Compact Disc Read-Only Memory)、フレキシブルディスク、光磁気ディスク等のように情報を光学的、電気的あるいは磁気的に記録する媒体が含まれる。また、記録媒体２３０には、ＲＯＭ(Read Only Memory)、フラッシュメモリ等のように情報を電気的に記録する半導体メモリ等が含まれていてもよい。 The drive device 206 is a device for setting the recording medium 230. The recording medium 230 herein includes a medium that records information optically, electrically, or magnetically, such as a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read-Only Memory), a flexible disk, and a magneto-optical disk. Further, the recording medium 230 may include a semiconductor memory that electrically records information, such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) or a flash memory.
　なお、補助記憶装置２０３にインストールされる各種プログラムは、例えば、配布された記録媒体２３０がドライブ装置２０６にセットされ、該記録媒体２３０に記録された各種プログラムがドライブ装置２０６により読み出されることでインストールされる。あるいは、補助記憶装置２０３にインストールされる各種プログラムは、通信装置２０５を介してネットワークからダウンロードされることで、インストールされてもよい。 Note that the various programs to be installed in the auxiliary storage device 203 are installed by, for example, setting the distributed recording medium 230 in the drive device 206 and reading out the various programs recorded on the recording medium 230 by the drive device 206. be done. Alternatively, various programs installed in the auxiliary storage device 203 may be installed by being downloaded from a network via the communication device 205.
　〔バス運行計画装置の機能構成〕
　続いて、図３を用いて、バス運行計画装置の機能構成について説明する。図３は、実施形態におけるバス運行計画装置の機能構成図である。 [Functional configuration of bus operation planning device]
Next, the functional configuration of the bus operation planning device will be explained using FIG. 3. FIG. 3 is a functional configuration diagram of the bus operation planning device in the embodiment.
　図３に示されているように、バス運行計画装置２は、送受信部２１、運行計画作成部２２、待ち行列人数推定部２３、及び記憶・読出部２９を有している。これら各部は、バス運行計画装置２にインストールされた１以上のプログラムを使用して、プロセッサ２０１がバス運行計画装置２に実現させる機能である。 As shown in FIG. 3, the bus operation planning device 2 includes a transmitting/receiving section 21, an operation plan creating section 22, a queue estimating section 23, and a storage/reading section 29. Each of these parts is a function that the processor 201 causes the bus operation planning device 2 to implement using one or more programs installed in the bus operation planning device 2.
　また、バス運行計画装置２のメモリ２０２又は補助記憶装置２０３には、停留所ＤＢ(Data Base)３１、路線ＤＢ３２、行列人数ＤＢ３３、乗車人数ＤＢ３４、及び需要予測ＤＢ３５が構築されている。 Furthermore, in the memory 202 or the auxiliary storage device 203 of the bus operation planning device 2, a stop DB (Data Base) 31, a route DB 32, a queue number DB 33, a passenger number DB 34, and a demand forecast DB 35 are constructed.
　＜停留所ＤＢ＞
　（停車台数上限）
　図４は、停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、各停留所の停車台数の上限を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。図４に示されているように、停留所を識別するための停留所ＩＤ毎に、バスの停車台数の上限Eの値が管理されている。例えば、停留所ＩＤ「bs1」で示される停留所には、同時に３台のバスしか停車できない旨が示されている。なお、ＩＤは識別情報の一例である（以下、同様）。 <Stop DB>
(Maximum number of stopping cars)
FIG. 4 is a conceptual diagram showing a table constituting the stop DB and a table for managing the upper limit of the number of cars stopping at each stop. As shown in FIG. 4, the value of the upper limit E of the number of buses stopping is managed for each stop ID for identifying the stop. For example, it is indicated that only three buses can stop at the stop indicated by the stop ID "bs1" at the same time. Note that the ID is an example of identification information (the same applies hereinafter).
　（バス乗車時間行列）
　図５は、停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、バス乗車時間行列を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。図５に示されているように、乗車停留所ＩＤと降車停留所ＩＤとの関係で、各停留所間をバスが移動する際の乗車時間（分）が管理されている。 (Bus boarding time queue)
FIG. 5 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the stop DB and a table for managing a bus boarding time matrix. As shown in FIG. 5, the boarding time (minutes) when the bus travels between each stop is managed based on the relationship between the boarding stop ID and the alighting stop ID.
　（ペナルティ行列）
　図６は、停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、ペナルティ行列を管理するテーブルを示す概念図である。図６に示されているように、出発地ＩＤ又は目的地ＩＤと停留所ＩＤとの関係で、旅客が移動に掛かる時間（分）が管理されている。例えば、出発地である自宅(d1)から自宅の最寄りのバス停(ID:bs1)までは徒歩0分で到着するが、自宅(d1)からバス停(ID:bs2)までは徒歩３０分掛かるため、各バス停を用いるときのペナルティとして扱われる。 (penalty matrix)
FIG. 6 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the stop DB and a table for managing a penalty matrix. As shown in FIG. 6, the time (minutes) it takes for a passenger to travel is managed based on the relationship between the departure point ID or destination ID and the stop ID. For example, it takes 0 minutes to walk from your home (d1), which is the departure point, to the bus stop closest to your home (ID: bs1), but it takes 30 minutes to walk from your home (d1) to the bus stop (ID: bs2), so This will be treated as a penalty when using each bus stop.
　（ペナルティ行列）
　図７は、図６と同じく、停留所ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示し、ペナルティ行列を示す概念図である。図７に示されているように、出発地ＩＤと目的地ＩＤの関係で、バス路線を用いずに移動する場合に旅客に掛かる時間（分）が管理されている。例えば、出発地である自宅から目的地の映画館に行くような場合に、バス路線を用いるほうが移動時間にメリットがあるか判断する基準に相当し、バスを用いない場合に移動に掛かかる時間（分）がペナルティとして扱われる。 (penalty matrix)
Similar to FIG. 6, FIG. 7 is a conceptual diagram showing a table constituting the stop DB and a penalty matrix. As shown in FIG. 7, the time (minutes) required for a passenger to travel without using a bus route is managed based on the relationship between the departure point ID and the destination ID. For example, when going from your home, which is your starting point, to a movie theater at your destination, this is equivalent to the criteria for determining whether using a bus route is more advantageous in terms of travel time. (minutes) will be treated as a penalty.
　＜路線ＤＢ＞
　図８は、路線ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。路線ＤＢ３２では、路線ＩＤ毎に、始発の停留所ＩＤから終点までの停留所ＩＤが管理されている。 <Route DB>
FIG. 8 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the route DB. In the route DB 32, stop IDs from the first stop ID to the last stop are managed for each route ID.
　＜行列人数ＤＢ＞
　図９は、行列人数ＤＢ（観測データ）を構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。行列人数ＤＢ３３では、所定の時刻における所定の乗車の停留所の停留所ＩＤで所定の路線ＩＤ毎に、センサ６で実際に観測されたリアルタイムの行列人数が管理される。これにより、例えば、図１に示されているように、同じ停留所４であっても、並んでいる路線の標識柱５ａ，５ｂが異なれば、それぞれ区別して行列人数が管理される。 <DB of number of people in line>
FIG. 9 is a conceptual diagram showing a table configuring the queuing number DB (observation data). The number of people queuing DB 33 manages the number of people queuing in real time actually observed by the sensor 6 for each predetermined route ID using the stop ID of the stop of a predetermined boarding at a predetermined time. As a result, for example, as shown in FIG. 1, even if the stop 4 is the same, if the signposts 5a and 5b of the lines on which the lines are lined up are different, the number of people queuing can be managed separately.
　＜乗車人数ＤＢ＞
　図１０は、乗車人数ＤＢ（観測データ）を構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。乗車人数ＤＢ３４では、所定の時間帯における所定の乗車の停留所を示す停留所ＩＤで所定の路線ＩＤ毎に、センサ６で実際に観測された乗車人数が管理されている。例えば、2022.1.1 5:00-5:10の１０分間で、同じ停留所(ID:bs1)の同じ路線（ID;r1）において、１台又は複数台のバスに乗車した人数が３０人であることが示されている。 <Number of passengers DB>
FIG. 10 is a conceptual diagram showing a table forming the passenger number DB (observation data). In the passenger number DB 34, the number of passengers actually observed by the sensor 6 is managed for each predetermined route ID using a stop ID indicating a stop for a predetermined ride in a predetermined time period. For example, 30 people boarded one or more buses on the same route (ID; r1) at the same stop (ID: bs1) in the 10 minutes from 5:00 to 5:10 on 2022.1.1. It has been shown that
　＜需要予測ＤＢ＞
　図１１は、需要予測ＤＢを構成するテーブルを示す概念図である。需要予測ＤＢ３５では、所定の時間帯における所定の出発地ＩＤで所定の目的地ＩＤ毎に、予測された旅客数（需要予測人数）が管理されている。例えば、ある地域（例えば、「１丁目１番地」あたり）である出発地から、ある地域（例えば、「９丁目９番地」あたり）である目的地までに行くであろうと予測された旅客数が管理されている。なお、「旅客」には、バスを利用する人だけでなく、バス利用を検討した上でバスを利用せずに移動する人も含まれる。 <Demand forecast DB>
FIG. 11 is a conceptual diagram showing the tables that constitute the demand forecast DB. The demand forecast DB 35 manages the predicted number of passengers (predicted demand number) for each predetermined destination ID at a predetermined departure point ID in a predetermined time period. For example, the number of passengers predicted to travel from a departure point in a certain area (for example, around 1-1 Street) to a certain destination in a certain area (for example, around 9-9 Street) is Managed. Note that "passengers" include not only those who use buses, but also those who consider using buses and then travel without using buses.
　＜各機能部＞
　続いて、各機能部について説明する。 <Each functional part>
Next, each functional section will be explained.
　送受信部２１は、他の装置等とデータの送受信を行う。例えば、送受信部２１は、センサ６から観測データを受信したり、バス８に関わる通信端末９に現在(t)の運行計画のデータを送信したりする。 The transmitting/receiving unit 21 transmits and receives data to and from other devices. For example, the transmitting/receiving unit 21 receives observation data from the sensor 6 or transmits data on the current (t) operation plan to the communication terminal 9 related to the bus 8.
　運行計画作成部２２は、各停留所の車両の路線毎の現在の観測時刻（以降、「現在の観測時刻」を「現在時刻」と示す場合もある）における待ち行列人数と始発から現在時刻までの乗車人数の累計との和と、一つ前の観測時刻における運行計画の路線選択人数から、出発地別かつ目的地別に集計した各停留所の車両の路線毎の路線選択人数を推定する。 The operation plan creation unit 22 calculates the number of people waiting in line at the current observation time (hereinafter, "current observation time" may be referred to as "current time") for each route of the vehicle at each stop, and the number of people queuing from the first train to the current time. From the sum of the cumulative number of passengers and the number of people who selected the route in the operation plan at the previous observation time, we estimate the number of people who selected the route for each route of the vehicles at each stop, tabulated by departure point and destination.
　待ち行列人数推定部２３は、現在時刻以降の想定する乗客需要の予測人数及び待ち行列人数推定部２３によって推定された現在時刻における路線選択人数から、車両の運行会社と乗客が前記現在の観測時刻以降に合理的に行動することを仮定して運行計画を作成する。 The queuing number estimating unit 23 determines whether the vehicle operating company and passengers are at the current observation time based on the predicted number of passengers expected after the current time and the number of route selections at the current time estimated by the queuing number estimating unit 23. The operation plan is created assuming that the vehicle will behave rationally thereafter.
　記憶・読出部２９は、各ＤＢ３１～３５に対して所定のデータを記憶したり、各ＤＢ３１～３５から所定のデータを読み出したりする。 The storage/reading unit 29 stores predetermined data in each of the DBs 31 to 35 and reads predetermined data from each of the DBs 31 to 35.
　なお、各機能部に関しては、後ほど詳細に説明する。 Note that each functional unit will be explained in detail later.
　〔実施形態の処理又は動作〕
　続いて、図１２を用いて、運行計画データの配信処理を説明する。図１２は、運行計画データの配信処理を示すシーケンス図である。 [Processing or operation of embodiment]
Next, the operation plan data distribution process will be explained using FIG. 12. FIG. 12 is a sequence diagram showing the operation plan data distribution process.
　図１２に示されているように、停留所４のａ行きの路線の標識柱５ａに設置されたセンサ６ａが待ち行列人数を観測して、この観測の結果を示す観測データをバス運行計画装置２に送信する（Ｓ１）。これにより、バス運行計画装置２の送受信部２１が、観測データを受信し、記憶・読出部２９が観測データを行列人数ＤＢ３３に記憶する。観測データは、図９の１レコードを示す。 As shown in FIG. 12, a sensor 6a installed on the signpost 5a of the route bound for bus stop 4 observes the number of people queuing, and the observation data indicating the result of this observation is sent to the bus operation planning device 2. (S1). As a result, the transmitting/receiving section 21 of the bus operation planning device 2 receives the observed data, and the storage/reading section 29 stores the observed data in the number of queues DB 33. The observation data shows one record in FIG.
　同様に、停留所４のｂ行きの路線の標識柱５ｂに設置されたセンサ６ｂが待ち行列人数を観測して、この観測の結果を示す観測データをバス運行計画装置２に送信する（Ｓ２）。これにより、バス運行計画装置２の送受信部２１が、観測データを受信し、記憶・読出部２９が観測データを行列人数ＤＢ３３に記憶する。なお、処理（Ｓ１）と処理（Ｓ２）は共に、定期的（例えば、１０分に１回）繰り返される。 Similarly, the sensor 6b installed on the signpost 5b of the route bound for bus stop 4 observes the number of people in the queue, and transmits observation data indicating the result of this observation to the bus operation planning device 2 (S2). As a result, the transmitting/receiving section 21 of the bus operation planning device 2 receives the observed data, and the storage/reading section 29 stores the observed data in the number of queues DB 33. Note that both the process (S1) and the process (S2) are repeated periodically (for example, once every 10 minutes).
　次に、バス運行計画装置２は、目的関数を利用して運行計画の処理を実行する（Ｓ３）。ここで、図１３乃至図２３を用いて、運行計画の処理について詳細に説明する。図１３及び図１４は、運行計画の作成処理を示すフローチャートである。図１５は、整数線形計画問題として表現した目的関数を示す図である。 Next, the bus operation planning device 2 executes operation plan processing using the objective function (S3). Here, the operation plan processing will be explained in detail using FIGS. 13 to 23. 13 and 14 are flowcharts showing the operation plan creation process. FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an objective function expressed as an integer linear programming problem.
　ここで、図１５を用いて、目的関数を説明する。目的関数は、停留所の所定路線の待ち行列の人数を考慮するだけでなく、バス会社の人件費やバスの燃料費等も考慮することで、総合的に判断してバス運行計画を立てるための関数である。そのため、目的関数の各部分Ｐ１～Ｐ７は、以下の内容を示してる。
Ｐ１：バス運行の経路長
Ｐ２：出発地から乗車の停留所までのペナルティコスト（例えば、自宅から最寄りのバス停までに掛かる費用や時間等）
Ｐ３：降車の停留所から目的地までのペナルティコスト（例えば、降車した停留所から目的地の映画館までに係る費用や時間等）
Ｐ４：乗客の乗車時間（乗車の停留所から降車の停留所までにかかった時間）
Ｐ５：路線に割り当てるＯＤ(Origin-Destination)集団の人数
Ｐ６：出発地から目的地までのペナルティコスト（例えば、自宅等の出発地から目的地の映画館に行くまでに、バスを利用せずに、徒歩やタクシーを利用したりすることで、目的地までに到着するまでの費用や時間等）
Ｐ７：待ち人数×Δ＝のべ待ち時間[人・分]
　また、図１６乃至図１８は、整数線形計画問題として表現した制約条件を示す図である。そして、図１９は、図１５乃至図１８で示された各変数を説明する図である。 Here, the objective function will be explained using FIG. 15. The objective function not only takes into account the number of people waiting in the queue for a given route at the bus stop, but also takes into consideration the bus company's personnel costs, bus fuel costs, etc., so that it can be used to make a comprehensive judgment and plan the bus operation. It is a function. Therefore, each part P1 to P7 of the objective function indicates the following contents.
P1: Route length of bus operation P2: Penalty cost from departure point to boarding stop (for example, cost and time required to get from home to the nearest bus stop, etc.)
P3: Penalty cost from the stop you get off at to your destination (for example, the cost and time involved from the stop you get off at to the movie theater at your destination)
P4: Passenger boarding time (time taken from boarding stop to getting off stop)
P5: Number of people in the OD (Origin-Destination) group assigned to the route P6: Penalty cost from the departure point to the destination (for example, the penalty cost from the departure point such as home to the destination movie theater without using a bus) , the cost and time required to reach the destination by walking or using a taxi)
P7: Number of people waiting x Δ = Total waiting time [people/minutes]
Further, FIGS. 16 to 18 are diagrams showing constraint conditions expressed as an integer linear programming problem. FIG. 19 is a diagram explaining each variable shown in FIGS. 15 to 18.
　ここで、図１６乃至図１８に示された制約条件における（式１）～（式１４）について、以下に説明する。なお、図１８の（式１２）～（式１４）に関しては、最適化のために変化させずに外部から決める（現在時刻に関しての変数を固定する）という意味で"Given"が示されている。
式１：旅客の人数が、バス以外を選択する人数と，バスに乗車する人数との和と等しいとする制約
式２：待ち行列として並んだ累計人数と，バスに乗った累計人数との差が行列人数とする制約
式３：最終のバスまでに乗客全員を乗車させる制約（最終時刻で行列人数が０）
式４：乗客の合計が、バスの定員C以下である制約
式５：運行するバスの台数の合計が，上限台数U以下である制約
式６：停留所mに停まるバスの台数の合計が，上限台数E_m以下である制約
式７～式１０：人数を非負整数とする制約
式１１：バスの台数を非負整数とする制約
式１２：移動を希望する旅客人数（乗客需要予測）が非負整数で所与とする制約
式１３：現在の選択人数ｚが非負整数で所与とする制約
式１４：現在の行列人数ｗが非負整数で所与とする制約
　上記の内容を踏まえて、図１３及び図１４の処理を説明する。 Here, (Formula 1) to (Formula 14) under the constraint conditions shown in FIGS. 16 to 18 will be explained below. Regarding (Formula 12) to (Formula 14) in FIG. 18, "Given" is shown to mean that they are determined externally without changing for optimization (fixing the variable related to the current time). .
Equation 1: The number of passengers is equal to the sum of the number of people choosing other than the bus and the number of people boarding the bus. Equation 2: The difference between the total number of people queuing and the total number of people riding the bus. Constraint formula 3 where is the number of people in the queue: Constraint that all passengers board the last bus (the number of people in the queue is 0 at the last time)
Equation 4: The total number of passengers is less than or equal to bus capacity C. Constraint Equation 5: The total number of buses in operation is less than or equal to the upper limit number U. Constraint Equation 6: The total number of buses stopping at stop m is, Constraint equations 7 to 10, where the number of buses is less than or equal to the upper limit E_m: Constraint equation 11, where the number of buses is a non-negative integer: Constraint equation 12, where the number of buses is a non-negative integer: The number of passengers who wish to travel (passenger demand forecast) is a non-negative integer. Constraint Equation 13: The current number of people selected z is given as a non-negative integer. Constraint Equation 14: The current number of people queuing w is given as a non-negative integer. 14 will be explained.
　まず、記憶・読出部２９は、停留所ＤＢ３１から停留所間の乗車時間行列τとペナルティ行列dと停車台数上限Eを読出し、路線ＤＢ３２からバス路線の候補 First, the storage/reading unit 29 reads the inter-stop boarding time matrix τ, the penalty matrix d, and the maximum number of stopping buses E from the stop DB 31, and reads bus route candidates from the route DB 32.
Figure JPOXMLDOC01-appb-M000001
 を読出し、需要予測ＤＢ３５から旅客数（需要予測人数）ｘを読み出す。
Figure JPOXMLDOC01-appb-M000001
 The number of passengers (predicted demand number) x is read out from the demand forecast DB 35.
　続いて、図１３に戻り、運行計画作成部２２は、図１５の目的関数において現在時刻ｔを０として初期化する（Ｓ１２）。 Next, returning to FIG. 13, the operation plan creation unit 22 initializes the current time t to 0 in the objective function of FIG. 15 (S12).
　そして、運行計画作成部２２は、ｔ＝０以降の想定する乗客需要予測xに対して、行列人数ｗ＝0、乗車人数b＝0とし、運行会社と乗客が待ち行列の観測以降に合理的に行動することを仮定して、仮の運行計画（t=0版）（非乗車人数a,乗車人数b,路線選択計画人数z,行列計画人数w,運行台数V）を作成する（Ｓ１３）。なお、この処理（Ｓ１３）では、ひとまず「仮の運行計画」が作成され、後述の処理（Ｓ１５～Ｓ１７）において、各停留所のセンサ６から取得した現在の待ち行列人数を示す観測データに基づいて、待機中のバスを運行させるための「実際の運行計画」が作成される。ここで、運行計画の内容について簡単に説明する（図１９参照）。 Then, the operation plan creation unit 22 sets the number of queues w = 0 and the number of passengers b = 0 for the assumed passenger demand forecast x after t = 0, and the operating company and passengers A tentative operation plan (t=0 version) (number of non-boarders a, number of passengers b, number of people planning to select a route z, number of people planning to line up w, number of vehicles in operation V) is created (S13). . In addition, in this process (S13), a "temporary operation plan" is created for the time being, and in the processes (S15 to S17) described later, a "temporary operation plan" is created based on observation data indicating the current number of people in the queue obtained from the sensor 6 of each stop. , an ``actual operation plan'' for operating the waiting buses is created. Here, the contents of the operation plan will be briefly explained (see FIG. 19).
　「非乗車人数a」は、停留所で待ち行列に並んだ人は必ずバスに乗るということを前提として、バスを利用しないで目的地まで移動する人（バスを利用しないことを選択した人）の人数を示す旅客数である。 "Number of non-passengers a" is the number of people who travel to their destination without using the bus (those who choose not to use the bus), assuming that people who queue at the bus stop always get on the bus. It is the number of passengers indicating the number of people.
　「乗車人数b」は、バスを使って移動する人（バスに乗ることを選択した人）の人数である乗客人数である。 "Number of passengers b" is the number of passengers, which is the number of people who travel by bus (people who choose to ride the bus).
　「路線選択計画人数z」は、所定の時間帯に、所定の出発地から所定の目的地に移動したくて、所定の停留所の所定の路線のバスを選択して乗車する乗車人数を示す。 The "route selection planned number of passengers z" indicates the number of passengers who select and board a bus on a predetermined route at a predetermined stop in order to travel from a predetermined departure point to a predetermined destination during a predetermined time period.
　「行列計画人数w」は、所定の時刻に、所定の出発地から所定の目的地に移動したくて、所定の路線の待ち行列に並ぶ乗客人数を示す。 The "planned number of passengers w" indicates the number of passengers who want to travel from a predetermined departure point to a predetermined destination at a predetermined time and line up in a queue for a predetermined route.
　「運行台数V」は、所定の時間帯に所定の路線として運行するバスの台数を示す。 "Number of buses in operation V" indicates the number of buses operating on a predetermined route during a predetermined time period.
　なお、路線選択計画z、行列人数計画w、及び運行Vに関しては、図２０乃至図２２を用いて、後ほど詳細に説明する。 Note that the route selection plan z, the queue number plan w, and the operation V will be explained in detail later using FIGS. 20 to 22.
　次に、運行計画作成部２２は、図１５の目的関数において現在時刻ｔを（ｔ＋１）とする（Ｓ１４）。 Next, the operation plan creation unit 22 sets the current time t to (t+1) in the objective function of FIG. 15 (S14).
　そして、記憶・読出部２９は、行列人数ＤＢ３３から、各停留所のバス路線毎の現在時刻ｔの行列人数w(t)を読み出し、乗車人数ＤＢ３４から、各停留所のバス路線毎の現在時刻ｔの乗車人数b(t)を読み出す（Ｓ１５）。 Then, the storage/reading unit 29 reads the number of people queuing w(t) at the current time t for each bus route at each stop from the number of people queuing DB 33, and reads out the number of people queuing w(t) at the current time t for each bus route at each stop from the number of passengers DB 34. The number of passengers b(t) is read out (S15).
　続いて、図１４に進み、待ち行列人数推定部２３は、各停留所のバス路線毎の行列人数w（ｔ）と乗車人数ｂ(t)の累計との和と（（式２）の一部）、運行計画((t-1)版）の路線選択z(t-1)から、出発地別かつ目的地別に集計した各停留所のバス路線毎の路線選択z(t)を推定する（Ｓ１６）。 Next, proceeding to FIG. 14, the number of people in the queue estimating unit 23 calculates the sum of the number of people in the queue for each bus route at each stop w(t) and the cumulative total of the number of passengers b(t) and (a part of (Equation 2) ), from the route selection z(t-1) of the operation plan ((t-1) version), estimate the route selection z(t) for each bus route at each stop tabulated by departure point and destination (S16 ).
　ここで、図２０乃至図２２を用い、運行計画の内容として、乗客の路線選択計画(変数z)、行列人数計画(変数w）、及びバス路線の運行計画（変数V）を説明する。 Here, as the contents of the operation plan, the passenger route selection plan (variable z), the queue number plan (variable w), and the bus route operation plan (variable V) will be explained using FIGS. 20 to 22.
　（乗客の路線選択計画(変数z)）
　図２０は、乗客の路線選択計画（変数ｚ）を示す図である。図２０に示されているように、乗客の路線選択計画のデータでは、所定の時間帯において乗車の停留所の停留所ＩＤ及び路線ＩＤ毎に、出発地ＩＤ、降車の停留所の停留所ＩＤ、目的地ＩＤ、及び路線選択人数(z)が関連付けられている。 (Passenger route selection plan (variable z))
FIG. 20 is a diagram showing a passenger's route selection plan (variable z). As shown in FIG. 20, in the data of the passenger's route selection plan, for each stop ID and route ID of the boarding stop in a predetermined time period, the departure point ID, the stop ID of the alighting stop, and the destination ID are used. , and the number of route selections (z) are associated.
　（行列人数計画(変数w））
　図２１は、行列人数計画（変数w）を示す図である。図２１に示されているように、行列人数計画のデータでは、時刻毎に、乗車の停留所の停留所ＩＤ、路線ＩＤ、及び行列人数計画(w)が関連付けられている。なお、図９に示されている行列人数(w)は、センサ６により実際に観測された行列人数であるのに対して、図２１の行列人数(w)は、待ち行列に並ぶ計画がある（予定）の行列人数である。 (matrix number of people planning (variable w))
FIG. 21 is a diagram showing the matrix number planning (variable w). As shown in FIG. 21, in the queuing number planning data, the stop ID of the boarding stop, route ID, and queuing number planning (w) are associated for each time. Note that the number of people in the queue (w) shown in FIG. 9 is the number of people in the queue actually observed by the sensor 6, whereas the number of people in the queue (w) in FIG. 21 is the number of people who are planning to queue. (planned) number of people in line.
　（バス路線の運行計画(変数V））
　図２２は、バス路線の運行計画（変数V）を示す図である。図２２に示されているように、バス路線の運行計画のデータでは、時間帯毎に、路線ＩＤ及び、この路線ＩＤに係る路線を運行すべきバスの台数(V)が関連付けられている。 (Bus route operation plan (variable V))
FIG. 22 is a diagram showing a bus route operation plan (variable V). As shown in FIG. 22, in the bus route operation plan data, a route ID and the number (V) of buses that should operate on the route related to this route ID are associated with each time slot.
　（路線選択人数の推定）
　次に、図２３を用いて、待ち行列人数推定部２３が行う路線選択人数(z)を推定する方法を詳細に説明する。図２３（ａ）は行列人数ＤＢの一項（レコード）を示す図、（ｂ）は乗車人数ＤＢの一項（レコード）における累計を示す図、（ｃ）は時刻(t-1)における最適化結果を示す図、（ｄ）は時刻(t)における待ち行列人数の推定結果を示す図である。 (Estimation of number of people choosing route)
Next, a method for estimating the number of people who have selected a route (z) performed by the queue number estimation unit 23 will be described in detail using FIG. 23. Figure 23 (a) is a diagram showing one item (record) of the number of people in queue DB, (b) is a diagram showing the cumulative total in one item (record) of the number of passengers DB, and (c) is the optimum at time (t-1). (d) is a diagram showing the estimation result of the number of people in the queue at time (t).
　なお、図２３（ａ）は、参考のために図９の一レコードを再度示したデータである。また、図２３（ｂ）は、参考のために図１０の一レコードにおいて始発からの累計の乗車人数を示したデータである。図２３（ｂ）の乗車人数(b)は、制約条件の（式２）のbに対応する値である。図２３の例では、始発から5:10の間に、所定の停留所(ID:bs1)の所定の路線(r1)の標識柱に並んだ人は、３６人（5:10の時点で並んでいる６人（図２３（ａ））と始発から5:10までの間に乗車して停留所を去ってしまった乗車人数(b)の累計の３０人（図２３（ｂ））との和）である。そして、図２３（ｃ）により、同じ停留所(bs1)の同じ路線(ID:r1)の標識柱において、１つ前の時間帯（始発～5:00）で計画上求められた路線選択人数(z)の累計が２４人（４人＋８人＋１２人の和）であるとすると、現時間帯（5:00-5:10）で、同じ停留所(ID:bs1)の同じ路線(ID:r1)の標識柱において、新たに到着することで待ち行列に並んだ人数は、１２人（３６人（図２３（ａ）、（ｂ））と２４人（図２３（ｃ））の差）である。そして、図２３（ｄ）において、１２人を３つのルート（d1→bs3→d3，d1→bs3→d4，d2→bs3→d3）に振り分けられる場合、図２３（ｃ）の各ルートの路線選択人数(z)の累計に比例して振り分けられる（比例配分される）。即ち、始発から5:00までに並んでいた人数に5:00から5:10までの１０分間に並んだ人数を加えて新たに並んだ人数(z)の累計を求め、この累計から、始発から5:10までの乗車人数を引くと、5:10時点での行列の待ち人数を推定により求めることができる。これは、(式２)において、新たに並んだ人数(z)の累計から、乗車人数(b)の累計を引くと、現在並んでいる人(w)を推定することができることを示している。 Note that FIG. 23(a) is data that shows one record of FIG. 9 again for reference. Moreover, FIG. 23(b) is data showing the cumulative number of passengers from the first train in one record of FIG. 10 for reference. The number of passengers (b) in FIG. 23(b) is a value corresponding to b in (Equation 2) of the constraint condition. In the example in Figure 23, the number of people who lined up at the sign post for the predetermined route (r1) at the predetermined stop (ID: bs1) between 5:10 and the first train is 36 (36 people lined up at 5:10). (Figure 23 (a)) plus the total number of passengers (b) who boarded the bus between the first train and 5:10 and left the stop (30 people (Figure 23 (b))) It is. Then, according to Fig. 23(c), the number of people choosing the route (( z) is 24 people (sum of 4 + 8 + 12 people), in the current time period (5:00-5:10), on the same route (ID: r1) at the same stop (ID: bs1). ), the number of people who queued due to new arrivals was 12 people (the difference between 36 people (Figures 23(a) and (b)) and 24 people (Figure 23(c))). be. In Figure 23(d), if 12 people can be divided into three routes (d1→bs3→d3, d1→bs3→d4, d2→bs3→d3), route selection for each route in FIG. 23(c) is performed. It will be distributed in proportion to the cumulative number of people (z). In other words, add the number of people who were in line for 10 minutes from 5:00 to 5:10 to the number of people who were in line from the first train until 5:00 to find the cumulative total of new people in line (z), and from this cumulative total, By subtracting the number of passengers from 5:10 to 5:10, we can estimate the number of people waiting in line at 5:10. This shows that in (Equation 2), by subtracting the cumulative total of the number of passengers (b) from the cumulative total of the new number of people (z), the number of people currently in line (w) can be estimated. .
　続いて、図１４に戻り、運行計画作成部２２は、現在時刻t以降の想定する乗客需要予測x及び路線選択z(t)から、運行会社と乗客が観測以降に合理的に行動することを仮定して、運行計画(t版)（非乗車人数a,乗車人数b,路線選択計画人数z,行列人数計画人数w,運行台数V)を作成する（Ｓ１７）。 Next, returning to FIG. 14, the operation plan creation unit 22 determines that the operating company and passengers will act rationally after the observation based on the assumed passenger demand forecast x and route selection z(t) after the current time t. Assuming this, an operation plan (T version) (number of non-boarders a, number of passengers b, planned number of route selection z, planned number of people in line w, number of operating vehicles V) is created (S17).
　次に、送受信部２１が、図４に示されているように、バスの運行計画(t版)のデータを配信する（Ｓ１８／図４ではＳ４）。 Next, as shown in FIG. 4, the transmitting/receiving unit 21 distributes the data of the bus operation plan (T version) (S18/S4 in FIG. 4).
　次に、運行計画作成部２２は、バス会社の営業が終了したかを判断する（Ｓ１９）。営業が終了していない場合には（Ｓ１９；ＮＯ）、図１３の処理（Ｓ１４）に戻る。この後は、処理（Ｓ１５）において、記憶・読出部２９は、現在時刻tの乗車人数b(t)を更新する。一方、営業が終了した場合には（Ｓ１９；ＹＥＳ）、運行計画の作成処理が終了する。 Next, the operation plan creation unit 22 determines whether the bus company has ended its operations (S19). If the business has not ended (S19; NO), the process returns to the process of FIG. 13 (S14). After this, in the process (S15), the storage/reading unit 29 updates the number of passengers b(t) at the current time t. On the other hand, if the business has ended (S19; YES), the operation plan creation process ends.
　以上により、図１２におけるバス運行計画装置２の処理（Ｓ３）の説明が終了する。 With this, the explanation of the process (S3) of the bus operation planning device 2 in FIG. 12 is completed.
　〔実施形態の主な効果〕
　以上説明したように本実施形態によれば、バス運行計画装置２は、停留所における路線の標識柱での待ち時間を目的関数に、待ち行列を制約条件に取り入れた最適化問題を定式化して、待ち行列の人数のセンサ６からの観測値を用いて、内訳を推定して（どの路線に乗るかは分かるが、どこの停留所で降りるかは不明なため推定：１つの停留所で複数路線）、運行会社と乗客の両者のメリットを考慮した最適解を求めることができる。このように、実際の待ち行列の人数を考慮することで、バス等の車両の運行会社のコストと、停留所での待ち時間を含めた乗客のコストとの和を最小化するようなバス等の車両の運行計画を作成することができるという効果を奏する。 [Main effects of the embodiment]
As described above, according to the present embodiment, the bus operation planning device 2 formulates an optimization problem in which the waiting time at the route signpost at the stop is used as the objective function and the queue is incorporated as the constraint. The breakdown is estimated using the observed value from the sensor 6 of the number of people in the queue (we know which route to take, but we do not know which stop to get off at, so it is estimated: multiple routes at one stop), An optimal solution can be found that takes into account the benefits for both the operating company and passengers. In this way, by considering the actual number of people in the queue, we can design a bus that minimizes the sum of the cost for the operating company of the bus and other vehicles and the cost for the passengers, including the waiting time at the stop. This has the effect of making it possible to create a vehicle operation plan.
　〔補足〕
　本発明は上述の実施形態に限定されるものではなく、以下に示すような構成又は処理（動作）であってもよい。 〔supplement〕
The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and may have the following configuration or processing (operation).
　バス運行計画装置２の各機能構成は、上述のようにコンピュータとプログラムによって実現できるが、このプログラムを（非一時的な）記録媒体に記録して提要することも、インターネット等のネットワークを通して提供することも可能である。 Each functional configuration of the bus operation planning device 2 can be realized by a computer and a program as described above, but this program can also be recorded on a (non-temporary) recording medium and presented, or it can be provided through a network such as the Internet. It is also possible.
１　通信システム
２　バス運行計画装置（車両運行計画装置の一例）
４　停留所
５ａ，５ｂ　標識柱
６ａ，６ｂ　センサ
７　営業所
８　バス（車両の一例）
９　通信端末
１０　端末位
２１　送受信部（送信部の一例、受信部の一例）
２２　運行計画作成部
２３　待ち行列人数推定部
２９　記憶・読出部
３１　停留所ＤＢ
３２　路線ＤＢ
３３　行列人数ＤＢ
３４　乗車人数ＤＢ
３５　需要予測ＤＢ
１００　通信ネットワーク 1 Communication system 2 Bus operation planning device (an example of vehicle operation planning device)
4 Stops 5a, 5b Signposts 6a, 6b Sensor 7 Office 8 Bus (an example of vehicle)
9 Communication terminal 10 Terminal position 21 Transmitting/receiving section (an example of a transmitting section, an example of a receiving section)
22 Operation plan creation section 23 Queue number estimation section 29 Storage/reading section 31 Stop DB
32 Route DB
33 Number of people in line DB
34 Number of passengers DB
35 Demand forecast DB
100 Communication network

Claims (7)

  1. 　車両運行の計画を行う車両運行計画装置であって、
    　各停留所の車両の路線毎の現在の観測時刻における待ち行列人数と始発から現在時刻までの乗車人数の累計との和と、一つ前の観測時刻における運行計画の路線選択人数から、出発地別かつ目的地別に集計した各停留所の車両の路線毎の路線選択人数を推定する待ち行列人数推定部と、
    　現在の観測時刻以降の想定する乗客需要の予測人数及び前記待ち行列人数推定部によって推定された現在の観測時刻における前記路線選択人数から、前記車両の運行会社と乗客が前記現在の観測時刻以降に合理的に行動することを仮定して運行計画を作成する運行計画作成部と、
    　を有する車両運行計画装置。     A vehicle operation planning device that plans vehicle operation,
    Based on the sum of the number of people queuing at each stop for each route at the current observation time and the cumulative number of passengers from the first train to the current time, and the number of people selected for the route in the operation plan at the previous observation time, we calculate and a queuing number estimating unit that estimates the number of people who select a route for each route of vehicles at each stop, tabulated by destination;
    Based on the predicted number of passengers for expected passenger demand after the current observation time and the number of people selected for the route at the current observation time estimated by the queue number estimator, the operating company of the vehicle and the number of passengers will be an operation plan creation department that creates an operation plan assuming that people act rationally;
    A vehicle operation planning device with
  2. 　前記待ち行列人数推定部は、始発から前記一つ前の観測時刻における、出発地別かつ目的地別に集計した各停留所の車両の路線毎の前記路線選択人数の累計に基づいて比例配分することで、前記路線選択人数を推定する、請求項１に記載の車両運行計画装置。 The number of people in the queue is estimated by proportionally distributing the number of people in the queue based on the cumulative total of the number of people who select the route for each route of vehicles at each stop, calculated by departure point and destination, from the first train to the previous observation time. 2. The vehicle operation planning device according to claim 1, wherein the vehicle operation planning device estimates the number of people choosing the route.
  3. 　請求項１又は２に記載の車両運行計画装置であって、
    　前記各停留所の車両の路線毎に待ち行列人数を観測することで当該観測の結果を示す観測データを送信するセンサから前記観測データを受信する受信部、を有する車両運行計画装置。     The vehicle operation planning device according to claim 1 or 2,
    A vehicle operation planning device comprising: a receiving unit that receives observation data from a sensor that observes the number of people queuing for each line of vehicles at each of the stops and transmits observation data indicating the result of the observation.
  4. 　請求項１乃至３のいずれか一項に記載の車両運行計画装置であって、
    　前記運行計画作成部によって作成された運行計画のデータを車両に関わる通信端末に送信する送信部を有する車両運行計画装置。     The vehicle operation planning device according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
    A vehicle operation planning device including a transmitting section that transmits data of the operation plan created by the operation plan creating section to a communication terminal related to the vehicle.
  5. 　前記車両はオンデマンドの運行が可能なバスである請求項１乃至４のいずれか一項に記載の車両運行計画装置。 The vehicle operation planning device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the vehicle is a bus capable of on-demand operation.
  6. 　車両運行の計画を行う車両運行計画方法であって、
    　コンピュータが、
    　各停留所の車両の路線毎の現在の観測時刻における待ち行列人数と始発から現在時刻までの乗車人数の累計との和と、一つ前の観測時刻における運行計画の路線選択人数から、出発地別かつ目的地別に集計した各停留所の車両の路線毎の路線選択人数を推定し、
    　現在の観測時刻以降の想定する乗客需要の予測人数及び前記推定された現在の観測時刻における前記路線選択人数から、前記車両の運行会社と乗客が前記現在の観測時刻以降に合理的に行動することを仮定して運行計画を作成する、
    　車両運行計画方法。     A vehicle operation planning method for planning vehicle operation, the method comprising:
    The computer is
    Based on the sum of the number of people queuing at each stop for each route at the current observation time and the cumulative number of passengers from the first train to the current time, and the number of people selected for the route in the operation plan at the previous observation time, we calculate Then, estimate the number of people choosing each route for vehicles at each stop, tabulated by destination.
    The operating company and passengers of the vehicle should act rationally after the current observation time based on the predicted number of passengers expected to be expected after the current observation time and the number of people who have selected the route at the estimated current observation time. Create an operation plan assuming that
    Vehicle operation planning method.
  7. 　コンピュータに、請求項６に記載の方法を実行させるプログラム。 A program that causes a computer to execute the method according to claim 6.
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JP2010244177A (en) * 2009-04-02 2010-10-28 Av Planning Center:Kk Demand bus system
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JP2020160605A (en) * 2019-03-25 2020-10-01 株式会社日立製作所 Movement service system and movement service provision method
JP2021177411A (en) * 2019-06-28 2021-11-11 株式会社NearMe Program, information processing method, and information processor

Patent Citations (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
JP2010244177A (en) * 2009-04-02 2010-10-28 Av Planning Center:Kk Demand bus system
JP2015184779A (en) * 2014-03-20 2015-10-22 株式会社日立製作所 Operation plan server and train diagram preparation method
JP2020160605A (en) * 2019-03-25 2020-10-01 株式会社日立製作所 Movement service system and movement service provision method
JP2021177411A (en) * 2019-06-28 2021-11-11 株式会社NearMe Program, information processing method, and information processor

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