WO2022196484A1 - 発注数算出装置および発注数算出システム - Google Patents
発注数算出装置および発注数算出システム Download PDFInfo
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- WO2022196484A1 WO2022196484A1 PCT/JP2022/010249 JP2022010249W WO2022196484A1 WO 2022196484 A1 WO2022196484 A1 WO 2022196484A1 JP 2022010249 W JP2022010249 W JP 2022010249W WO 2022196484 A1 WO2022196484 A1 WO 2022196484A1
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- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 description 3
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- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000002093 peripheral effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 206010039203 Road traffic accident Diseases 0.000 description 1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
- G06Q10/06315—Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/10—Services
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- G—PHYSICS
- G07—CHECKING-DEVICES
- G07C—TIME OR ATTENDANCE REGISTERS; REGISTERING OR INDICATING THE WORKING OF MACHINES; GENERATING RANDOM NUMBERS; VOTING OR LOTTERY APPARATUS; ARRANGEMENTS, SYSTEMS OR APPARATUS FOR CHECKING NOT PROVIDED FOR ELSEWHERE
- G07C5/00—Registering or indicating the working of vehicles
- G07C5/008—Registering or indicating the working of vehicles communicating information to a remotely located station
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- G—PHYSICS
- G07—CHECKING-DEVICES
- G07C—TIME OR ATTENDANCE REGISTERS; REGISTERING OR INDICATING THE WORKING OF MACHINES; GENERATING RANDOM NUMBERS; VOTING OR LOTTERY APPARATUS; ARRANGEMENTS, SYSTEMS OR APPARATUS FOR CHECKING NOT PROVIDED FOR ELSEWHERE
- G07C5/00—Registering or indicating the working of vehicles
- G07C5/08—Registering or indicating performance data other than driving, working, idle, or waiting time, with or without registering driving, working, idle or waiting time
- G07C5/0808—Diagnosing performance data
Definitions
- the present invention relates to an order quantity calculation device and an order quantity calculation system for calculating the optimum order quantity of parts.
- Patent Document 1 calculates the demand forecast value for parts by multiplying the number of past shipments of the product by the repair request rate, the parts failure rate, etc., and calculates the actual vehicle condition of each vehicle. is not taken into account, it is difficult to accurately predict the demand for parts.
- One aspect of the present invention is an order quantity calculation device that calculates the order quantity for replacement or repair of predetermined parts used in each of a plurality of vehicles linked to a predetermined area.
- the order quantity calculation device includes an average demand quantity calculation unit that calculates an average demand quantity for a given part in a given period based on the past order quantity for the given part, and obtains vehicle information for each of the plurality of vehicles in the given period. Ordering for calculating a future order quantity for a predetermined part in a predetermined area based on the vehicle information acquisition unit, the average demand quantity calculated by the average demand quantity calculation unit, and the vehicle information acquired by the vehicle information acquisition unit. and a number calculator.
- An order quantity calculation system which is another aspect of the present invention, includes the order quantity calculation device and an on-vehicle device mounted on each of a plurality of vehicles and capable of communicating with the order quantity calculation device.
- FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of the in-vehicle device of FIG. 1;
- FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of the order quantity calculation device according to the present embodiment;
- FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of a vehicle information acquisition unit shown in FIG. 3;
- FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a demand forecast for repair parts calculated by the order quantity calculation device according to the present embodiment, and a demand record.
- FIG. 10 is a diagram showing demand forecasts and actual demand for repair parts calculated by a conventional order quantity calculation device;
- the order quantity calculation device predicts the demand for replacement or repair of parts used in each of a plurality of vehicles linked to a predetermined area, and calculates the order quantity of the parts. device.
- the area where the vehicle owner lives is assumed to be a predetermined area
- the demand for automotive repair parts (hereinafter referred to as repair parts) in the predetermined area is predicted two months after next, and the repair parts (predetermined parts) in the area are predicted.
- repair parts automotive repair parts
- FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a system (hereinafter referred to as an order quantity calculation system) provided with an order quantity calculation device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
- an order quantity calculation system 100 is provided by an in-vehicle device 2 mounted on each of a plurality of vehicles 1 linked to a predetermined area A, and by an entity such as an automobile manufacturer that manufactures the vehicle 1. and an order quantity calculation device 3.
- the in-vehicle device 2 and the order quantity calculation device 3 mounted on each of the plurality of vehicles 1 are configured to be able to communicate with each other via the communication network 4 .
- the communication network 4 includes not only public wireless communication networks such as the Internet and mobile phone networks, but also closed communication networks such as wireless LAN and Wi-Fi (registered trademark) provided for each predetermined management area. ) etc. are also included.
- FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of the in-vehicle device 2 of FIG.
- the in-vehicle device 2 includes a controller 20, an internal sensor group 21 electrically connected to the controller 20, an input/output device 22, a positioning sensor 23, a map database 24, and a navigation device 25. , a communication unit 26 and an actuator 27 .
- the internal sensor group 21 is a general term for a plurality of sensors that detect the running state of the vehicle 1 and the state inside the vehicle.
- the internal sensor group 21 includes an IG sensor 211 for detecting an ignition-on signal (hereinafter referred to as IG-ON signal) and an ignition-off signal (hereinafter referred to as IG-OFF signal), brake pedal operation information (hereinafter referred to as brake sensor 212 for detecting brake information).
- the internal sensor group 21 includes a vehicle speed sensor for detecting the vehicle speed of the vehicle 1, an acceleration sensor for detecting longitudinal acceleration and lateral acceleration (lateral acceleration) of the vehicle 1, a drive source and tires. sensors that detect the number of revolutions of the engine, and sensors that detect the operation of the accelerator pedal and steering. A detection signal from the internal sensor group 21 is transmitted to the controller 20 .
- the input/output device 22 is a general term for devices that receive commands from the driver of the vehicle 1 and output information to the driver.
- the input/output device 22 includes various switches for the driver to input various commands by manipulating operation members, a microphone for the driver to input commands by voice, a display unit for providing information to the driver via display images, and an audio signal for the driver. It includes a speaker that provides information in
- the positioning sensor 23 is, for example, a GPS sensor, receives positioning signals transmitted from GPS satellites, and measures the absolute position (latitude, longitude, etc.) of the vehicle 1 based on the received signals.
- a signal (a signal indicating a measurement result) from the positioning sensor 23 is transmitted to the controller 20 .
- the map database 24 is a device that stores general map information used in the navigation device 25, and is configured by a hard disk, for example.
- the map information includes road position information, road shape (curvature, etc.) information, and position information of intersections and junctions.
- the navigation device 25 is a device that searches for a target route on the road to the destination input by the driver and provides guidance along the target route. Input of the destination and guidance along the target route are performed via the input/output device 22 .
- the target route is calculated based on the current position of the vehicle measured by the positioning sensor 23 and map information stored in the map database 24 .
- the communication unit 26 is configured to be able to wirelessly communicate with an external device such as the order quantity calculation device 3 via the communication network 4 .
- the actuator 27 drives various devices mounted on the vehicle 1 according to commands from the controller 20 .
- the actuator 27 has, as an example, a travel actuator 271 for controlling travel of the vehicle 1 .
- the travel actuator 271 includes a throttle actuator, a brake actuator, a steering actuator, and the like.
- the controller 20 includes a computer having an arithmetic unit 201 such as a CPU, a storage unit 202 such as a ROM, RAM, hard disk, etc., and other peripheral circuits (not shown).
- the calculation unit 201 functions as an information reception unit 201a and an information output unit 201b by executing a program stored in the storage unit 202 in advance.
- the information receiving unit 201a receives various signals (various commands) and various information transmitted from each unit of the in-vehicle device 2 and external devices such as the order quantity calculation device 3.
- the information receiving section 201a receives an IG-ON signal and an IG-OFF signal detected by the IG sensor 211, brake information detected by the brake sensor 212, and the like.
- the information output unit 201b outputs various signals and various information received by the information reception unit 201a to an external device such as the order quantity calculation device 3 via the communication unit .
- the information output unit 201b outputs the IG-ON signal, the IG-OFF signal, brake information, etc. received by the information receiving unit 201a through the communication unit 26 together with the ID information of the vehicle 1 to the order quantity calculation device 3. .
- the order quantity calculation device 3 is a terminal managed by an employee of a business entity such as an automobile manufacturer that manufactures the vehicle 1, and is composed of, for example, a server device.
- the order quantity calculation device 3 may be configured using a virtual server function on the cloud, or may be configured to be distributed among a plurality of terminals.
- FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of the order quantity calculation device 3 according to the embodiment of the present invention.
- the order quantity calculation device 3 has a controller 30 and a communication unit 33 electrically connected to the controller 30 .
- the communication unit 33 is configured to be able to wirelessly communicate with an external device such as the in-vehicle device 2 or the above-described worker terminal operated by the worker via the communication network 4 .
- the controller 30 includes a computer having a computing unit 31 such as a CPU, a storage unit 32 such as ROM, RAM, hard disk, etc., and other peripheral circuits (not shown).
- the calculation unit 31 executes an order quantity calculation program stored in advance in the storage unit 32 to obtain an information reception unit 311, an information transmission unit 312, an information output unit 313, an average demand calculation unit 314, and a vehicle information acquisition unit 315. , functions as the order quantity calculation unit 316 .
- the information receiving unit 311 receives various information and various signals transmitted from external devices such as the in-vehicle device 2 and each unit.
- the information receiving section 311 receives the IG-ON signal, IG-OFF signal, and brake information of the vehicle 1 transmitted from the in-vehicle device 2 via the communication unit 33 together with the ID information of the vehicle 1 .
- the information receiving unit 311 also receives information on the average demand quantity calculated by the average demand quantity calculating unit 314, vehicle information obtained by the vehicle information obtaining unit 315, order quantity information calculated by the order quantity calculating unit 316, and the like. do.
- the information transmission section 312 transmits various information and various signals received by the information reception section 311 .
- the information transmitting section 312 transmits the IG-ON signal, the IG-OFF signal, brake information, etc. of the vehicle 1 received by the information receiving section 311 to the vehicle information acquiring section 315 together with the ID information of the vehicle 1 .
- the information transmission unit 312 also transmits information on the average demand quantity received by the information reception unit 311 , vehicle information, and the like to the order quantity calculation unit 316 .
- the information output section 313 outputs various types of information and various signals received by the information receiving section 311 via the communication unit 33 .
- the information output unit 313 outputs the order quantity information received by the information receiving unit 311 via the communication unit 33 to an input/output device (monitor) or the like electrically connected to the employee terminal or the order quantity calculation device 3 .
- an input/output device (monitor) or the like electrically connected to the employee terminal or the order quantity calculation device 3 .
- the average demand quantity calculation unit 314 calculates the average demand quantity for repair parts for one month based on the number of orders for repair parts in the past. For example, the average demand quantity calculation unit 314 calculates the average number of orders per month from the number of orders for repair parts in the past six months, and multiplies this by the trend coefficient and the seasonal coefficient. Calculate the average number of demand.
- the trend coefficient is a coefficient that is set based on changes in the demand for repair parts in the market, and is set to 1 or more when the demand for repair parts is on the increase, and is set to less than 1 when the demand is on the decrease. be.
- the trend coefficient is set higher as the number of vehicles having the same repair parts on the market increases, and is set lower as the number of vehicles having the same repair parts on the market decreases.
- the seasonal coefficient is a coefficient that is set based on changes in demand for repair parts in the market for each season (for example, four seasons). be. For example, if traffic accidents tend to occur frequently in summer in the predetermined area A, the seasonal coefficient for repair parts such as bumpers is set high. , the seasonal coefficient for repair parts such as bumpers is set low.
- the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 acquires vehicle information for each of the plurality of vehicles 1 for one month.
- FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the main configuration of the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 of FIG. 3. As shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 4, the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 has a usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a, a travel time information acquisition unit 315b, and a sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c.
- the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a acquires information on the difference in usage frequency of the plurality of vehicles 1 between the target month (first predetermined period) and the month preceding the target month (second predetermined period). For example, if the current month is the target month, the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a compares the number of vehicles 1 that have been used a predetermined number of times or more in the previous month with the number of vehicles 1 that have been used a predetermined number of times or more in the current month. Get the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of units used over the period. Specifically, the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a obtains the rate of change (% ) information. The number of times the vehicle 1 is used is counted based on the number of times the IG-ON signal associated with the ID information of the vehicle 1 is received.
- the increase/decrease rate of the number of vehicles 1 in predetermined area A from the previous month to the current month is 20. %.
- the rate of change in the number of multiple vehicles 1 used in predetermined area A from the previous month to the current month is -. 10%.
- information on the number of vehicles 1 that have been used five times or more in one month is acquired. can be set arbitrarily.
- the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a acquires the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of vehicles 1 used in the current month, the next month, and the month after next as the target month.
- the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of units used for the current month is obtained as described above.
- the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of units used in the next month is obtained using the number of units used in the current month and the expected number of units used in the next month.
- an approximate line can be created from the actual number of machines in use in the past, and the expected number of machines in use for the next month obtained from the created approximation line can be used.
- the expected number of users in the month after next will be calculated by using the expected number of users in the next month and the expected number of users in the month after next, which is obtained from the approximation line created from the actual number of users in the past. get.
- the travel time information acquisition unit 315b acquires information on the difference in travel time of the plurality of vehicles 1 between the target month (first predetermined period) and the month preceding the target month (second predetermined period). For example, if the current month is the target month, the travel time information acquisition unit 315b compares the travel times of the plurality of vehicles 1 in the previous month with the travel times of the plurality of vehicles 1 in the current month, and compares the travel times of the vehicles 1 in the current month. Acquire the increase/decrease rate (%) of the running time of 1.
- the running time information acquisition unit 315b determines the running time of the vehicle 1 as the time period from the detection of the IG-ON signal to the detection of the IG-OFF signal, which is linked to the ID information of the vehicle 1, From this information for a plurality of vehicles 1, the increase/decrease rate (%) of the travel time is obtained.
- the total travel time of the plurality of vehicles 1 linked to the predetermined area A in the previous month is 100 hours and the total travel time in the current month is 110 hours
- the total travel time of the plurality of vehicles 1 in the predetermined area A from the previous month to the current month is 100 hours.
- the increase/decrease rate of the running time is 10%.
- the total driving time of the plurality of vehicles 1 linked to the predetermined area A in the previous month is 100 hours and the total driving time in the current month is 80 hours
- the total driving time of the plurality of vehicles 1 in the predetermined area A from the previous month to the current month is 100 hours.
- the increase/decrease rate of the running time is -20%.
- the increase/decrease rate is obtained based on the total travel time of the plurality of vehicles 1.
- the increase/decrease rate is obtained based on the average travel time of the plurality of vehicles (total travel time/number of vehicles). It may be configured to acquire.
- the travel time information acquisition unit 315b also acquires the increase/decrease rate (%) of the travel time for the current month, the next month, and the month after next as the target month.
- the increase/decrease rate (%) of the running time for the current month is obtained as described above.
- the increase/decrease rate (%) of the travel time for the next month is obtained using the travel time for the current month and the expected travel time for the next month.
- an approximate line is created from past running time records, and the estimated running time of the next month obtained from the created approximate line can be used.
- the expected travel time for the month after next is calculated by using the expected travel time for the next month and the expected travel time for the month after next, which is obtained from the approximate line created from past travel time results, and the increase/decrease rate (%) of the travel time. get.
- the sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c acquires information on the difference in the number of sudden brakings of the plurality of vehicles 1 between the target month (first predetermined period) and the month preceding the target month (second predetermined period). For example, if the current month is the target month, the sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c compares the number of sudden brakings of the plurality of vehicles 1 in the previous month with the number of sudden brakings of the plurality of vehicles 1 in the current month. Acquire the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of times of sudden braking of a plurality of vehicles 1 over . Specifically, the sudden braking information acquiring unit 315c detects the number of times of sudden braking from the brake information transmitted from each of the plurality of vehicles 1, and acquires the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of times of sudden braking.
- the plurality of vehicles in the predetermined area A from the previous month to the current month The increase/decrease rate of the number of times of sudden braking in 1 is 10%.
- the plurality of vehicles in the predetermined area A from the previous month to the current month The increase/decrease rate of the number of times of sudden braking in 1 is -20%.
- the increase/decrease rate is obtained based on the total number of times of sudden braking of a plurality of vehicles 1. may be obtained.
- the sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c also acquires the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of times of sudden braking for the current month, the next month, and the month after next as the target month.
- the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of times of sudden braking in the current month is obtained as described above.
- the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of times of sudden braking in the next month is obtained using the number of times of sudden braking in the current month and the expected number of times of sudden braking in the next month.
- the expected number of sudden brakings in the next month for example, an approximate line is created from past records of the number of sudden brakings, and the expected number of sudden brakings in the next month obtained from the created approximate line can be used.
- the number of sudden brakings in the month after next is also calculated by using the expected number of sudden brakings in the next month and the expected number of sudden brakings in the month after next, which are obtained from the approximation line created from the past record of the number of sudden brakings. Get the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of times.
- the order quantity calculation unit 316 calculates the future order quantity of repair parts in the predetermined area A based on the average demand quantity calculated by the average demand quantity calculation unit 314 and the vehicle information acquired by the vehicle information acquisition unit 315. Calculate For example, the order quantity calculation unit 316 calculates the average demand quantity calculated by the average demand quantity calculation unit 314, the increase/decrease rate (%) of the number of vehicles 1 used acquired by the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a, and the travel time information. Based on the change rate (%) of the running time acquired by the acquisition unit 315b and the change rate (%) of the number of sudden braking acquired by the sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c, the number of repair parts in the predetermined area A is determined. Calculate future orders.
- the order quantity calculation unit 316 calculates the current month demand forecast F0 with the current month as the target month, the next month demand forecast F1 with the next month as the target month, and the second month's forecast demand F2 with the month after next as the target month. Then, the monthly average demand quantity AMC of the current month demand forecast F0, the next month demand forecast F1, and the second month after next forecast demand F2 is calculated as the number of orders.
- Expected demand for the current month F0 consists of the average number of demand, the number obtained by multiplying the average number of demand by the increase/decrease in the number of vehicles used in the current month, the number obtained by multiplying the average number of demand by the increase/decrease in the travel time of the month, and the average number of demand multiplied by the It is calculated by adding the number obtained by multiplying the increase/decrease in the number of times of braking.
- Next month's expected demand F1 is calculated by multiplying the average number of demand by the increase/decrease in the number of vehicles used in the next month, by multiplying the average number of demand by the increase/decrease in the travel time in the next month, and by multiplying the average number of demand by It is calculated by adding the number obtained by multiplying the increase/decrease in the number of times of braking.
- Expected demand for the month after next F2 is calculated by multiplying the average number of demand by the increase/decrease in the number of vehicles used two months after It is calculated by adding the number obtained by multiplying the increase/decrease in the number of times of braking.
- the order quantity calculation unit 316 sets the average of the calculated current month demand forecast F0, next month demand forecast F1, and month after next month forecast demand F2 as the monthly average demand quantity AMC, and uses this as the order quantity.
- the expected demand in the month after next is F2.
- the order quantity for the month after next is 127 (pieces).
- the order quantity calculation device 3 predicts the demand for replacement or repair of repair parts used in each of the plurality of vehicles 1 linked to the predetermined area A, and orders the repair parts. It is a device for calculating numbers.
- the order quantity calculation device 3 includes an average demand quantity calculation unit 314 that calculates an average demand quantity for repair parts per month based on past order quantity results for repair parts, Based on the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 that acquires the vehicle information, the average demand number calculated by the average demand number calculation unit 314, and the vehicle information acquired by the vehicle information acquisition unit 315, the repair in the predetermined area A and an order quantity calculation unit 316 that calculates the future order quantity of parts.
- the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 obtains usage frequency information for acquiring information on the difference in usage frequency of the plurality of vehicles 1 between the target month (first predetermined period) and the month preceding the target month (second predetermined period). It has an acquisition unit 315a.
- the order quantity calculation unit 316 calculates the future order quantity of repair parts in a predetermined area based on the information on the difference in usage frequency acquired by the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a and the average demand quantity. With this configuration, the demand for parts is predicted based on information on the actual frequency of use of the vehicle 1 (for example, increase or decrease in frequency of use), so the demand for parts can be predicted with higher accuracy.
- the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 provides travel time information for acquiring information on the difference in travel times of the plurality of vehicles 1 between the target month (first predetermined period) and the month preceding the target month (second predetermined period).
- an acquisition unit 315b, and a sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c that acquires information on the difference in the number of sudden brakings of the plurality of vehicles 1 between the target month (first predetermined period) and the month preceding the target month (second predetermined period). and further comprising:
- the number-of-orders calculation unit 316 obtains information on the difference in travel time acquired by the travel time information acquisition unit 315b, information on the difference in the number of times of sudden braking acquired by the sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c, and the difference in usage frequency. Based on the information and the average number of demand, the number of future orders for repair parts in the predetermined area is calculated.
- the demand for parts is predicted based on information on the actual running time of the vehicle 1 (for example, increase in running time) and information on the number of times of sudden braking (increase in the number of times of sudden braking). can be predicted more accurately.
- FIG. 5A is a diagram showing demand forecast and actual demand for repair parts calculated by the order quantity calculation device 3 according to the present embodiment
- FIG. is a diagram showing demand forecast and actual demand.
- the characteristic f1 indicates the demand forecast for the repair parts calculated by the order number calculation device 3
- the characteristic f2 indicates the actual demand for the repair parts
- the characteristic f3 is calculated by the conventional calculation device.
- Demand forecasts for spare parts are shown below.
- the conventional demand forecast shows an average waveform with respect to the actual demand, whereas as shown in FIG. It shows a waveform that conforms to the actual demand, and can be predicted closer to the actual demand.
- a plurality of vehicles 1 each have the same repair parts. With this configuration, it is possible to accurately predict demand for parts such as repair parts, which are difficult to predict and require a long delivery lead time.
- the order quantity calculation system includes the order quantity calculation device 3 and an in-vehicle device 2 mounted on each of the plurality of vehicles 1 and capable of communicating with the order quantity calculation device 3 .
- the vehicle information of each vehicle 1 that is actually on the market is obtained and the demand for parts is predicted. It is possible to prevent it from becoming insufficient. That is, an appropriate inventory can be maintained.
- the vehicle information acquisition section 315 is configured with the usage frequency information acquisition section 315a, the travel time information acquisition section 315b, and the sudden braking information acquisition section 315c, but the present invention is not limited to this.
- the vehicle information acquisition unit 315 may be configured to have only the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a, and acquire vehicle information other than the usage frequency information acquisition unit 315a, the running time information acquisition unit 315b, and the sudden braking information acquisition unit 315c. It may be a configuration.
- the average demand quantity calculation unit 314 multiplies the average value of the number of orders per month calculated from the number of orders placed in the most recent six months by the trend coefficient and the seasonal coefficient to obtain repair parts.
- the average number of demand is calculated, the present invention is not limited to this.
- the average demand quantity calculation unit 314 may be configured to calculate the average demand quantity for repair parts by multiplying the above-described average value by a preset coefficient of variation.
- the coefficient of variation can be set higher as the number of vehicles corresponding to repair parts on the market increases, and can be set lower as the number decreases.
- the present invention is not limited to this.
- it may be configured to calculate the number of orders placed in the next month, or may be configured to calculate the number of orders placed in the month after next.
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Abstract
Description
(1)本実施形態に係る発注数算出装置3は、所定エリアAに紐付けされた複数の車両1それぞれに用いられる補修部品の交換または修理に備えた需要を予測して、補修部品の発注数を算出する装置である。発注数算出装置3は、補修部品の過去の発注数の実績に基づいて補修部品の1か月あたりの平均需要数を算出する平均需要数算出部314と、複数の車両1それぞれの1か月間の車両情報を取得する車両情報取得部315と、平均需要数算出部314により算出された平均需要数と、車両情報取得部315により取得された車両情報と、に基づいて、所定エリアAにおける補修部品の将来の発注数を算出する発注数算出部316と、を備える。
Claims (5)
- 所定エリアに紐付けされた複数の車両それぞれに用いられる所定部品の交換または修理に備えた需要を予測して、前記所定部品の発注数を算出する発注数算出装置であって、
前記所定部品の過去の発注数の実績に基づいて前記所定部品の所定期間における平均需要数を算出する平均需要数算出部と、
前記複数の車両それぞれの前記所定期間における車両情報を取得する車両情報取得部と、
前記平均需要数算出部により算出された前記平均需要数と、前記車両情報取得部により取得された前記車両情報と、に基づいて、前記所定エリアにおける前記所定部品の将来の発注数を算出する発注数算出部と、を備えることを特徴とする発注数算出装置。 - 請求項1に記載の発注数算出装置において、
前記車両情報取得部は、前記複数の車両の、第1所定期間と、第2所定期間とにおける利用頻度の差の情報を取得する利用頻度情報取得部を有し、
前記発注数算出部は、前記利用頻度情報取得部により取得された前記利用頻度の差の情報と、前記平均需要数と、に基づいて、前記所定エリアにおける前記所定部品の将来の発注数を算出することを特徴とする発注数算出装置。 - 請求項2に記載の発注数算出装置において、
前記車両情報取得部は、前記複数の車両の、前記第1所定期間と、前記第2所定期間とにおける走行時間の差の情報を取得する走行時間情報取得部と、前記複数の車両の、前記第1所定期間と、前記第2所定期間とにおける急制動の回数の差の情報を取得する急制動情報取得部と、をさらに有し、
前記発注数算出部は、前記走行時間情報取得部により取得された前記走行時間の差の情報と、前記急制動情報取得部により取得された前記急制動の回数の差の情報と、前記利用頻度の差の情報と、前記平均需要数と、に基づいて、前記所定エリアにおける前記所定部品の将来の発注数を算出することを特徴とする発注数算出装置。 - 請求項1から3のいずれか1項に記載の発注数算出装置において、
前記複数の車両は、同一の前記所定部品をそれぞれ有することを特徴とする発注数算出装置。 - 請求項1から4のいずれか1項に記載の発注数算出装置と、前記複数の車両それぞれに搭載され、前記発注数算出装置と通信可能な車載装置と、を備える発注数算出システム。
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US18/281,465 US20240152835A1 (en) | 2021-03-15 | 2022-03-09 | Order quantity calculation apparatus and order quantity calculation system |
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JP2007199844A (ja) * | 2006-01-24 | 2007-08-09 | Hitachi Ltd | 部品需要予測プログラム、部品需要予測方法、及びこの方法を実行するシステム |
JP2013218408A (ja) * | 2012-04-05 | 2013-10-24 | Mitsubishi Heavy Ind Ltd | 保守対象管理装置及びその処理方法とプログラム |
JP2015114849A (ja) * | 2013-12-11 | 2015-06-22 | 三菱重工業株式会社 | 需要予測装置、需要予測方法及び需要予測用コンピュータプログラム |
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