WO2022033224A1 - 人员可靠性评估方法、***、计算机设备及存储介质 - Google Patents

人员可靠性评估方法、***、计算机设备及存储介质 Download PDF

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WO2022033224A1
WO2022033224A1 PCT/CN2021/103650 CN2021103650W WO2022033224A1 WO 2022033224 A1 WO2022033224 A1 WO 2022033224A1 CN 2021103650 W CN2021103650 W CN 2021103650W WO 2022033224 A1 WO2022033224 A1 WO 2022033224A1
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action
diagnosis
task sequence
task
personnel
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PCT/CN2021/103650
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English (en)
French (fr)
Inventor
徐志辉
吴官寅
彭华清
张杰梅
刘鹏
苏德颂
贾明
张学刚
吕智宏
Original Assignee
中广核工程有限公司
深圳中广核工程设计有限公司
中国广核集团有限公司
中国广核电力股份有限公司
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Priority to EP21855277.6A priority Critical patent/EP4258190A1/en
Publication of WO2022033224A1 publication Critical patent/WO2022033224A1/zh

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G06Q10/06398—Performance of employee with respect to a job function
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations

Definitions

  • the present application relates to the technical field of systems engineering reliability analysis, and in particular, to a personnel reliability assessment method, system, computer equipment and storage medium.
  • PSA Probabilistic Safety Analysis
  • the actions of personnel may correct the failure of certain systems or equipment and mitigate their consequences, but may also cause the failure of certain systems or equipment. It can be seen that the behavior of personnel can directly affect the development process and consequences of the accident. Therefore, the behavior of people must be considered when assessing the overall risk of a nuclear power plant, and the behavior of people must be included in the model, so that a suitable and sufficient assessment can be made so that the design safety level of the nuclear power plant can be fully reflected.
  • the object of personnel reliability analysis is the important safety-related actions performed by personnel.
  • PSF Physical shaping factor
  • level selection results the evaluation process is opaque, the results of the analysis carried out by different personnel are quite different, the reliability of the calculation basis and calculation results are low, and cannot be verified and confirmed by a third party; problems and problems cannot be found through the personnel reliability assessment process. Recommendations for improvement. Due to the simplicity of the analysis process and the lack of detailed qualitative analysis and evaluation, the results are obviously optimistic and their credibility is greatly reduced.
  • the purpose of the embodiments of the present application is to provide a method and system for evaluating the reliability of personnel, so as to solve the problem of low reliability of human-related safety evaluation.
  • an embodiment of the present application provides a method for evaluating personnel reliability, including:
  • the task sequence includes a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence
  • Correction processing is performed on the task sequence to obtain the modified performance impact factor, which includes the diagnostic correction impact factor corresponding to the diagnosis task sequence and the action correction impact factor corresponding to the action task sequence;
  • obtaining the task sequence includes:
  • each diagnosis task sequence includes at least one diagnosis subtask information
  • each action task sequence includes at least one action subtask information
  • performing tabular task analysis on the target procedure to obtain the diagnostic task sequence and the action task sequence includes:
  • the entry includes a preset procedure instruction, and the preset procedure instruction points to a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence corresponding to the preset procedure type;
  • the diagnosis subtask information includes the diagnosis operation type and the diagnosis operation details of the diagnosis operation type
  • the action subtask information includes Action action type and action action details for that action action type
  • the basic information of the personnel action includes the total time window
  • the details of the diagnosis operation include the diagnosis operation time of the diagnosis operation type
  • the action operation details include the action operation time of the action operation type
  • the task sequence is corrected to obtain the corrected performance impact factor.
  • diagnosis operation time and the action operation time respectively determine the time required for the diagnosis of the diagnosis task sequence and the time required for the action of the action task sequence
  • the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time factor for action are used as modified performance influencing factors.
  • performing correction processing on the task sequence to obtain the correction performance impact factor includes:
  • the additional diagnostic factors and additional action factors were used as modified performance influencing factors.
  • the embodiment of the present application also provides a personnel reliability evaluation system, including:
  • an acquisition module configured to acquire a task sequence, wherein the task sequence includes a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence;
  • the correction module is used to perform correction processing on the task sequence to obtain the correction performance influence factor, and the correction performance impact factor includes the diagnosis correction impact factor corresponding to the diagnosis task sequence and the action correction impact factor corresponding to the action task sequence;
  • Evaluation module for evaluating the probability of human error based on the modified performance impact factor.
  • the acquisition module includes:
  • an acquisition unit configured to acquire basic information of personnel actions, wherein the basic information of personnel actions includes event description information;
  • the procedure unit is used to determine the target procedure according to the event description information
  • a task analysis unit configured to perform table task analysis on the target procedure to obtain a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence, wherein each diagnosis task sequence includes at least one diagnosis subtask information, and each action task sequence includes at least one action Subtask information.
  • the task analysis unit includes:
  • a matching subunit configured to match entries corresponding to the target procedures in the preset database, wherein the entries include preset protocol instructions, and the preset protocol instructions point to the diagnostic task sequence and the action task sequence corresponding to the preset protocol type;
  • a subtask analysis subunit configured to determine the diagnosis subtask information of the diagnosis task sequence and the action subtask information of the action task sequence in the entry based on the table task, wherein the diagnosis subtask information includes the diagnosis operation type and the diagnosis of the diagnosis operation type Operation details, the action subtask information includes the action operation type and the action operation details of the action operation type.
  • the basic information of personnel actions includes a total time window
  • the diagnostic operation details include the diagnostic operation time of the diagnostic operation type
  • the action operation details include the action operation time of the action operation type
  • the correction module includes:
  • the required time unit is used to respectively determine the required time for diagnosis of the diagnosis task sequence and the required time for the action of the action task sequence according to the diagnosis operation time and the action operation time;
  • the available time unit is used to determine the available time for diagnosis and the available time for action according to the total time window and the preset allocation scheme;
  • the available time factor unit is used to determine the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time factor for action based on the preset correction quantification criterion, the time required for diagnosis, the time required for action, the available time for diagnosis and the available time for action;
  • the first correction factor unit is configured to use the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time factor for action as the correction performance influencing factor.
  • the correction module further includes:
  • an additional factor unit for determining additional diagnostic factors and additional action factors based on preset correction quantification criteria, diagnostic operation details, and action operation details;
  • the second correction factor unit is used to use the additional diagnostic factor and the additional action factor as the revised performance impact factor.
  • an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, where a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned method for evaluating the reliability of personnel is implemented. step.
  • an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the above-mentioned personnel reliability assessment method is implemented A step of.
  • the task sequence is corrected to obtain the diagnosis correction impact factor corresponding to the diagnosis task sequence and the action correction impact factor corresponding to the action task sequence, and evaluate the personnel according to the corrected performance impact factor.
  • the probability of failure that is, by analyzing the task sequence and adopting the method of correction processing to obtain the corrected performance impact factor, to solve the problem of lack of qualitative analysis, unclear and lack of credible basic data that the existing technology has performance impact shadow, effectively overcome the problem.
  • the opaqueness of the evaluation process of the existing technical solutions effectively enhances the credibility of the human factor safety evaluation of the nuclear power plant design.
  • FIG. 1 is an exemplary system architecture diagram to which the present application can be applied;
  • Fig. 3 is the main interface of the personnel reliability assessment software system of the present application.
  • FIG. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of the personnel reliability assessment system of the present application.
  • FIG. 5 is a basic structural block diagram of an embodiment of the computer device of the present application.
  • the system architecture 100 may include terminal devices 101 , 102 , and 103 , a network 104 and a server 105 .
  • the network 104 is a medium used to provide a communication link between the terminal devices 101 , 102 , 103 and the server 105 .
  • the network 104 may include various connection types, such as wired, wireless communication links, or fiber optic cables, among others.
  • the terminal devices 101, 102, and 103 may be various electronic devices that have a display screen and support web browsing, including but not limited to smart phones, tablet computers, e-book readers, and MP3 players (Motion Picture Expert Compression Standard Audio Layer 3) , MP4 (Motion Picture Experts Compression Standard Audio Layer 4) players, laptop and desktop computers, etc.
  • MP3 players Motion Picture Expert Compression Standard Audio Layer 3
  • MP4 Motion Picture Experts Compression Standard Audio Layer 4
  • the server 105 may be a server that provides various services, such as a background server that provides support for the pages displayed on the terminal devices 101 , 102 , and 103 .
  • the personnel reliability assessment method provided by the embodiments of the present application is generally performed by a server/terminal device, and accordingly, a personnel reliability assessment system is generally set in the server/terminal device.
  • terminal devices, networks and servers in FIG. 1 are merely illustrative. There can be any number of terminal devices, networks and servers according to implementation needs.
  • FIG. 2 there is shown a flow chart of one embodiment of a method for assessing personnel reliability according to the present application.
  • the described personnel reliability assessment method includes the following steps:
  • S201 Acquire a task sequence, where the task sequence includes a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence.
  • this application proposes a procedure-based task analysis technology To carry out qualitative analysis, that is, to obtain task analysis according to the task sequence of the procedure.
  • the operator's response behavior after the accident is divided into two parts: diagnosis and action.
  • diagnosis and action In practice, the operator handles the accident in strict accordance with the regulations, so the operator's response process can be divided into diagnosis according to regulations and regulations according to regulations. action in two parts. Diagnosis is that the operator understands the current working conditions, plans and goals according to his own knowledge and experience, and determines reasonable actions. Actions include operating equipment, arranging equipment, starting pumps and valves, and other operations performed in accordance with nuclear power plant procedures.
  • the task analysis technology based on the actual procedure is based on the accident sequence and scene composed of the combination of the personnel action, equipment and system automatic action in the PSA event tree, and selects the actual operation path of the operator in the corresponding procedure. There are multiple possible paths, and the most realistic sequence or all sequences can be evaluated based on the event report, the actual experience of the operator or the verification of the simulator, or the organization of the risk analysis major, the operation major and the safety analysis major.
  • the information is uploaded to the personnel reliability assessment system.
  • the basic information of personnel actions is the basic information of response behaviors filled in according to a preset event report form mode
  • the event report form mode includes key fields, for example, including event code, basic event description, Initiating event, scenario description, available time, time starting point, scenario analysis, etc.
  • the personnel reliability analyst fills in the basic information of the specific operator's response behavior according to the key field, and uploads the basic information of personnel action to the personnel reliability.
  • Sexuality Assessment System Perform task analysis on the basic information of personnel actions according to preset procedures to obtain task sequences including diagnostic task sequences and action task sequences.
  • the diagnostic task sequence includes multiple diagnostic subtasks of an event diagnostic process, that is, multiple Diagnosis subtask information
  • the diagnosis task sequence includes the subtask name of each diagnosis subtask information, personnel/location, time required for the diagnosis subtask, DCS platform, whether the required information is easy to find, navigation times, whether the required information exists, all Whether the required information is concentrated in one screen, etc.
  • the action task sequence includes multiple action subtasks of an event action process, that is, includes multiple action subtask information
  • the action task sequence includes the subtask name, personnel, and personnel of each action subtask information. /Location, time required for action subtasks, DCS platform, whether the required information is easy to find, the number of navigations, whether the required information exists, whether the required information is concentrated on one screen, etc.
  • the basic information of personnel actions is analyzed according to specific procedures, so as to be divided into diagnostic task sequences and action task sequences, so that the operator's response behavior process can be analyzed and evaluated in detail, and selection reasons for subsequent selection of PSFs are provided. , which makes the follow-up evaluation process more transparent, which is conducive to the timely detection of problems and improvement suggestions in the personnel reliability evaluation process.
  • S202 Perform a correction process on the task sequence to obtain a modified performance impact factor, where the corrected performance impact factor includes a diagnosis correction impact factor corresponding to the diagnosis task sequence and an action correction impact factor corresponding to the action task sequence.
  • the correction process refers to the correction of quantitative criteria based on the principle of conservatism, that is, based on the original criterion of SPAR-H (Standardized Plant Risk Analysis-Human Reliability Analysis Procedure, standardized nuclear power plant risk analysis of accident sequence precursors), to adjust
  • the existing PSF here refers to the revised performance impact factor, in order to reflect the conservative principle of personnel reliability assessment, this application has revised the available time factor quantification criteria provided by SPAR-H. After calculation, the revised quantification criteria can be effective. Reflect the conservative nature of the personnel reliability assessment process.
  • the Human Error Probability is approximately the sum of the diagnostic error probability and the action execution error probability.
  • the diagnostic failure probability of the diagnostic correction influence factor and the action failure probability of the action correction influence factor are calculated respectively, and the diagnostic failure probability and the action failure probability are added to obtain the personnel error probability.
  • the SPAR-H method provides the nominal human error probabilities (NHEP) of the diagnosis, that is, the probability of human error without considering the impact of the PSF of a specific power plant, where the nominal error probability of diagnosis is 1.0E-2, and the nominal value of action is 1.0E-2.
  • the probability of error is 1.0E-3.
  • the diagnostic failure probability is the product of the diagnostic correction impact factor and the diagnostic nominal error probability value, that is, the corrected 8 diagnostic PSFs are multiplied by the diagnostic nominal error probability value; similarly, the action failure probability is the action correction impact factor.
  • the result of the product of the action nominal error probability value, that is, the corrected 8 action PSFs are multiplied by the action nominal error probability value.
  • P is the probability of personnel error
  • ⁇ is the uncertainty.
  • Uncertainty refers to the degree of uncertainty about the measured value due to the existence of measurement errors. In turn, it indicates how reliable the measurement is, and it is an indicator of the quality of the measurement.
  • the task sequence is corrected to obtain a diagnosis correction impact factor corresponding to the diagnosis task sequence and an action correction impact factor corresponding to the action task sequence.
  • Correcting the performance impact factor assesses the probability of human error, that is, by analyzing the task sequence, and using the correction processing method to obtain the corrected performance impact factor, so as to solve the problem that the qualitative analysis of the existing technology has the shadow of performance impact, which is lacking, unclear, and lacking credible basic data. It effectively overcomes the opaque problem of the evaluation process of the existing technical solutions, thereby effectively improving the credibility of the human factor safety evaluation of the nuclear power plant design.
  • step S201 that is, acquiring the task sequence includes:
  • each diagnosis task sequence includes at least one diagnosis subtask information
  • each action task sequence includes at least one action subtask information
  • the event description information includes basic event description, power plant status, originating event, scenario description, available time, time starting point, and scenario analysis, such as the basic information on personnel actions shown in Table 2.
  • the procedures include normal operating procedures (NOP), normal operating procedures include general operating procedures (General Operating Procedures, GOPs), system operating procedures (System Operating Procedures, SOPs), alarm response procedures (Alarm Response Procedures, ARPs), abnormality Operating procedures (Abnormal Operating Procedures, AOPs), emergency operating procedures (Emergency Operating Procedures, EOPs) and so on.
  • NOP normal operating procedures
  • normal operating procedures include general operating procedures (General Operating Procedures, GOPs), system operating procedures (System Operating Procedures, SOPs), alarm response procedures (Alarm Response Procedures, ARPs), abnormality Operating procedures (Abnormal Operating Procedures, AOPs), emergency operating procedures (Emergency Operating Procedures, EOPs) and so on.
  • EOP emergency operation procedures are divided into optimal recovery procedures (Optimal Recovery Procedure), functional recovery procedures (Function Recovery Procedure) symptom-oriented EOP procedures (symptom-based, EOP).
  • Best operating procedures include event-oriented EOP procedures for recovery of reactor shutdown or safety injection, loss of primary system coolant (LOCA accident), loss of secondary coolant (secondary system breach) ), steam generator heat transfer tube damage accident response, LOCA accident response outside the containment, etc.; special symptom-oriented EOP regulations for function recovery operation regulations, including critical safety function recovery operation regulations and reactor shutdown safety function recovery operation regulations, among which, It is used to restore critical safety functions and restore operating procedures for core subcriticality, core cooling, RCS system integrity, and containment integrity (at present, nuclear power plants generally use symptom-oriented procedures).
  • the target procedure is determined according to the event description information and the above procedures.
  • the steam generator pipeline is damaged in the initiating event in Table 2.
  • the target procedure can be determined as the symptom-oriented EOP procedure, and then the personnel are assigned according to the characteristics of the target procedure
  • Action basic information is divided into diagnosis task sequence and action task sequence.
  • diagnosis task sequence For example, the task analysis of the diagnosis process in Table 3, that is, the diagnosis task sequence, and the task analysis of the action process in Table 4, that is, the action task sequence.
  • the specific diagnosis subtask information and action subtask information have been described in detail in step S201, and will not be described in detail here.
  • a target procedure is determined according to the event description information, and a table task analysis is performed on the target procedure to obtain a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence, It makes the personnel reliability analysis process clear, comprehensive and sufficient, which is convenient for subsequent verification.
  • the performing table task analysis on the target procedure to obtain the diagnostic task sequence and the action task sequence includes:
  • the entry includes a preset procedure instruction, and the preset procedure instruction points to a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence corresponding to the preset procedure type;
  • the diagnosis subtask information includes the diagnosis operation type and the diagnosis operation details of the diagnosis operation type
  • the action subtask information includes Action action type and action action details for that action action type
  • the preset database includes a basic database based on a digital human-machine interface (as shown in Table 5) and a basic database of a digital backup disk (as shown in Table 6).
  • the scope simulator platform is based on the statistics of the actual task execution process of the licensed operators.
  • the entries in the database correspond to the procedure instructions of the target procedure in the actual operation, so that the diagnosis information corresponding to each diagnosis subtask in the procedure can be queried.
  • the table task analysis is carried out according to the target procedure, that is, the task sequence can be divided into a diagnostic task sequence and an action task sequence to judge the complexity (Complexity), experience/training (Experience/Training), procedures (Procedures) in the PSF. ), the suitability of human-machine efficacy/human-machine interaction (Ergonomics/HMI). For factors such as stress (Stress/Stressors), work adaptability (Fitness for Duty) and work process (Work Processes), it is possible to further understand work adaptability and work process through interviews and on-site inspections, so as to make the choice of PSF level Make decisions based on reality and record the reasons for selection in the PSF value table.
  • the diagnosis subtask information of the diagnosis task sequence and the action subtask information of the action task sequence in the entry are determined based on the table task.
  • the analysis technology can effectively carry out the qualitative evaluation process and determine the level of factors affecting the performance of digital human-computer interaction operators.
  • the basic information of the personnel action includes the total time window
  • the details of the diagnosis operation include the diagnosis operation time of the type of diagnosis operation
  • the details of the action operation include the operation time of the action operation type.
  • Performance factors include:
  • diagnosis operation time and the action operation time respectively determine the time required for the diagnosis of the diagnosis task sequence and the time required for the action of the action task sequence
  • the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time factor for action are used as modified performance influencing factors.
  • the division scheme of the total time window proposed in this application includes: when the time window is sufficient, when allocating the time window, more time should be first allocated to the diagnosis, As the available time for diagnosis, in order to provide sufficient time for diagnosis and reduce the probability of diagnosis failure, generally it should ensure that more than twice or more than 30min time window can be allocated, and then allocate the remaining time to the action, and evaluate the action according to the remaining time. Failure probability.
  • the preset allocation plan includes a plan for dividing the response process of the personnel after the accident, and the response process of the personnel after the accident is divided as follows:
  • the operator diagnoses the type of accident and selects the operating procedures and starts to implement intervention measures; between T2 and T3, the operator executes the operating procedures and brings the power plant to a controllable state; at T3, the power plant reaches a controllable state;
  • the operator carries out the operation or monitoring procedure and brings the power plant to the safe stop state; at T4 time, the power plant reaches the safe stop state, and the above is the whole process of the personnel response after the accident.
  • the time period between T1-T2-T3 can be divided into two categories according to SPAR-H, the diagnostic task sequence and the action task sequence.
  • a clear signal and start the diagnosis according to the procedure during the T2-T3 period, the operator enters and starts to execute the operation procedure according to the diagnosis result, and brings the nuclear power plant to a controllable state.
  • the available time factor quantification criterion provided by SPAR-H is revised.
  • the revised quantification criterion (as shown in Table 7 and Table 8) can effectively reflect the conservatism of the personnel reliability assessment process.
  • the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time factor for action are determined based on the preset modified quantification criteria, that is, based on Tables 7 and 8, and then the PSF is determined.
  • the time required for diagnosis of the diagnosis task sequence and the time required for action of the action task sequence are determined according to the diagnosis operation time and the action operation time, respectively, and the available time for diagnosis and the time required for diagnosis are determined according to the total time window and the preset allocation scheme.
  • Action available time based on the preset correction quantification criterion, the time required for diagnosis, the time required for action, the available time for diagnosis and the available time for action, the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time for action are determined, and the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time for action are determined.
  • the factor is used as a modified performance influencing factor. It can be seen that the modified quantitative criterion effectively reflects the conservative principle of personnel reliability analysis in the process of quantitative evaluation, and improves the accuracy of personnel reliability analysis.
  • step S202 that is, performing correction processing on the task sequence to obtain the correction performance impact factor includes:
  • the additional diagnostic factors and additional action factors were used as modified performance influencing factors.
  • additional diagnostic factors include diagnostic stress (Stress/Stressors), diagnostic complexity (Complexity), diagnostic experience/training (Experience/Training), diagnostic procedures (Procedures), diagnostic ergonomics/human-machine interface (Ergonomics/HMI) ), diagnosing work fitness (Fitness for Duty) and diagnosing work processes (Work Processes); additional action factors include action stress (Stress/Stressors), action complexity (Complexity), action experience/training (Experience/Training), action Procedures, Action Human-Machine Function/Human-Machine Interface (Ergonomics/HMI), Action Work Adaptation (Fitness for Duty) and Action Work Processes (Work Processes), determine additional diagnostic factors and additional action factors in the same way as determined above Diagnosing the available time factor is the same as the action available time factor, and will not be described in detail here.
  • 3 is the main interface of the personnel reliability assessment software system of the application, which mainly includes four parts: system function navigation, task sequence analysis area, human error probability assessment area, and human boundary analysis area.
  • system function navigation By analyzing the task sequence of the operation procedure, the operation task is decomposed into a diagnosis task and an action task, and disassembled into multiple sub-tasks, and the diagnosis task and the action task are quantified and the failure probability is calculated respectively.
  • the task sequence analysis results, required time data, and failure probability calculation results involved in the calculation of the probability of failure are stored in the system database, and displayed on the main interface of the personnel reliability assessment software system at the same time.
  • the realization of all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be accomplished by instructing relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and the program is During execution, it may include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods.
  • the aforementioned storage medium may be a non-volatile storage medium such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only memory (Read-Only Memory, ROM), or a random access memory (Random Access Memory, RAM) or the like.
  • the present application provides a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a personnel reliability assessment system, and the system embodiment is the same as that shown in FIG. 2 .
  • the system can be specifically applied to various electronic devices.
  • the personnel reliability evaluation system described in this embodiment includes: an acquisition module 41 , a correction module 42 and an evaluation module 43 . in:
  • an acquisition module 41 configured to acquire a task sequence, wherein the task sequence includes a diagnosis task sequence and an action task sequence;
  • a correction module 42 configured to perform correction processing on the task sequence to obtain a correction performance influencing factor, where the correction performance impact factor includes a diagnosis correction impact factor corresponding to the diagnosis task sequence and an action correction impact factor corresponding to the action task sequence;
  • the evaluation module 43 is used for evaluating the probability of personnel error according to the revised performance influencing factor.
  • the obtaining module 41 includes:
  • an obtaining unit 411 configured to obtain basic information of personnel actions, wherein the basic information of personnel actions includes event description information;
  • a procedure unit 412 configured to determine a target procedure according to the event description information
  • the task analysis unit 413 is configured to perform tabular task analysis on the target procedure to obtain a diagnostic task sequence and an action task sequence, wherein each diagnostic task sequence includes at least one diagnostic subtask information, and each action task sequence includes at least one Action subtask information.
  • the task analysis unit 413 includes:
  • the matching subunit 4131 is used to match the entry corresponding to the target procedure in the preset database, wherein the entry includes the preset procedure instruction, and the preset procedure instruction points to the diagnosis task sequence and the action task sequence corresponding to the preset procedure type;
  • the subtask analysis subunit 4132 is configured to determine, based on the table task, the diagnosis subtask information of the diagnosis task sequence and the action subtask information of the action task sequence in the entry, wherein the diagnosis subtask information includes the diagnosis operation type and the information of the diagnosis operation type. Diagnose operation details, the action subtask information includes the action operation type and the action operation details of the action operation type.
  • the basic information of the personnel action includes a total time window
  • the details of the diagnosis operation include the diagnosis operation time of the type of diagnosis operation
  • the details of the action operation include the operation time of the action operation type
  • the correction module 42 includes:
  • the required time unit 421 is used to respectively determine the required time for diagnosis of the diagnosis task sequence and the required time for the action of the action task sequence according to the diagnosis operation time and the action operation time;
  • the available time factor unit 423 is configured to determine the available time factor for diagnosis and the available time factor for action based on the preset correction quantification criterion, the time required for diagnosis, the time required for action, the available time for diagnosis and the available time for action;
  • the first correction factor unit 424 is configured to use the diagnosis availability time factor and the action availability time factor as the correction performance influencing factor.
  • correction module 42 also includes:
  • an extra factor unit 425 configured to determine an extra diagnostic factor and an extra action factor based on a preset correction quantification criterion, diagnostic operation details and action operation details;
  • the second correction factor unit 426 is configured to use the additional diagnostic factor and the additional action factor as the corrected performance influencing factor.
  • FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a basic structure of a computer device according to this embodiment.
  • the computer device 5 includes a memory 51 , a processor 52 , and a network interface 53 that communicate with each other through a system bus. It should be pointed out that only the computer device 5 with components 51-53 is shown in the figure, but it should be understood that it is not required to implement all of the shown components, and more or less components may be implemented instead. Among them, those skilled in the art can understand that the computer device here is a device that can automatically perform numerical calculation and/or information processing according to pre-set or stored instructions, and its hardware includes but is not limited to microprocessors, special-purpose Integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC), programmable gate array (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA), digital processor (Digital Signal Processor, DSP), embedded equipment, etc.
  • ASIC Application Specific Integrated Circuit
  • FPGA Field-Programmable Gate Array
  • DSP Digital Signal Processor
  • the computer equipment may be a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a palmtop computer, a cloud server and other computing equipment.
  • the computer device can perform human-computer interaction with the user through a keyboard, a mouse, a remote control, a touch pad or a voice control device.
  • the memory 51 includes at least one type of readable storage medium, and the readable storage medium includes flash memory, hard disk, multimedia card, card-type memory (for example, SD or D personnel reliability evaluation memory, etc.), random access memory ( RAM), static random access memory (SRAM), read only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read only memory (EEPROM), programmable read only memory (PROM), magnetic memory, magnetic disks, optical disks, and the like.
  • the memory 51 may be an internal storage unit of the computer device 5, such as a hard disk or a memory of the computer device 5.
  • the memory 51 may also be an external storage device of the computer device 5, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart memory card (Smart Media Card, SMC), a secure digital (Secure Digital, SD) card, flash memory card (Flash Card), etc.
  • the memory 51 may also include both the internal storage unit of the computer device 5 and its external storage device.
  • the memory 51 is generally used to store the operating system and various application software installed in the computer device 5 , such as program codes of a method for evaluating the reliability of personnel.
  • the memory 51 can also be used to temporarily store various types of data that have been output or will be output.
  • the processor 52 may be a central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, or other data processing chips. This processor 52 is typically used to control the overall operation of the computer device 5 . In this embodiment, the processor 52 is configured to run the program code or process data stored in the memory 51, for example, run the program code of the personnel reliability assessment method.
  • CPU Central Processing Unit
  • controller a controller
  • microcontroller a microcontroller
  • microprocessor microprocessor
  • the processor 52 is configured to run the program code or process data stored in the memory 51, for example, run the program code of the personnel reliability assessment method.
  • the network interface 53 may include a wireless network interface or a wired network interface, and the network interface 53 is generally used to establish a communication connection between the computer device 5 and other electronic devices.
  • Another embodiment of the present application is to provide a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium stores a personnel reliability assessment program, and the personnel reliability assessment program can be executed by at least one processor , so that the at least one processor executes the steps of the above-mentioned method for assessing personnel reliability.
  • the method of the above embodiment can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases the former is better implementation.
  • the technical solution of the present application can be embodied in the form of a software product in essence or in a part that contributes to the prior art, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, CD-ROM), including several instructions to make a terminal device (which may be a mobile phone, a computer, a server, an air conditioner, or a network device, etc.) execute the methods described in the various embodiments of this application.
  • a storage medium such as ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, CD-ROM

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Abstract

一种人员可靠性评估方法、***、计算机设备及存储介质，属于***工程可靠性分析技术领域。该方法包括通过获取包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列的任务序列（S201），对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子（S202），根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率（S203）。该方法通过分析任务序列，并采用修正处理的方式获取修正绩效影响因子，解决了现有技术存在绩效影响因子的定性分析缺失、不清晰、定性与定量分析结合不紧密、缺乏可信的数字化人机接口基础数据的问题，有效克服了现有技术方案评估过程的不透明问题，有效提升了核电站设计的人因安全性评估可信度。

Description

人员可靠性评估方法、***、计算机设备及存储介质 技术领域
本申请涉及***工程可靠性分析技术领域，尤其涉及一种人员可靠性评估方法、***、计算机设备及存储介质。
背景技术
在概率安全分析(Probabilistic Safety Analysis，PSA)的发展早期，建模分析的对象是***和设备等客观实体，较少考虑人员的行为和其可靠性，因而PSA分析结果并不能准确而全面的衡量整个核电厂实际的风险状况，也受到越来越多的质疑。
在核电厂的实际运行中，人员的行为可能会纠正某些***或设备的失效并减轻他们的后果，但同时也可能导致某些***或设备的失效。可以看出，人员的行为能够直接影响事故的发展进程和后果。因此，在评估核电站整体风险时必须考虑到人员的行为因素，并将人员的行为纳入模型之中，以便进行合适、充分的评估，以便可以充分反应核电站的设计安全水平。
相关文献表明在核电站的概率安全评估中，人员行为失效概率对PSA总体失效概率的贡献度已经超过50％。核电站的概率安全水平在很大程度上取决于已经考虑过的人员动作的选择,以及它们的失效概率，事件树中不同设备、***和人员行为的组合构成了不同的事故序列和场景。如果没有充分证明在PSA中考虑的人员动作涵盖了从设计中获得的大部分风险，PSA的有用性是有限的。同样地，如果人员动作的失效概率没有得到充分的证明，PSA的结果可能会有很大的不确定性。
人员可靠性分析的对象是人员执行的安全相关重要动作，而现有技术中，缺乏对人员执行动作的内容和过程的详细分析和评价，而是直接给出PSF(Performance shaping factor，绩效影响因子)水平选取结果，评估过程不透明，不同人员开展分析的结果差异较大，其计算基础和计算结果可信度较低， 无法经由第三方校核和确认；无法通过人员可靠性评估过程发现问题和提出改进建议。由于分析过程的简略，详细的定性分析和评价缺乏，导致结果明显偏乐观，其可信度大大降低。
发明内容
本申请实施例的目的在于：提供一种人员可靠性评估方法和***，解决人因安全性评估可信度低的问题。
为了实现上述发明目的，本申请实施例提供一种人员可靠性评估方法，包括：
获取任务序列，其中，任务序列包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子，修正绩效影响因子包括诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子；
根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率。
可选地，获取任务序列包括：
获取人员动作基本信息，其中，人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息；
根据事件描述信息确定目标规程；
对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，其中，每个诊断任务序列包括至少1个诊断子任务信息，每个动作任务序列包括至少1个动作子任务信息。
可选地，对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列包括：
在预设数据库中匹配与目标规程对应的条目，其中，条目包括预设规程指令，预设规程指令指向预设规程类型对应的诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
基于表格任务确定条目中的诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，其中，诊断子任务信息包括诊断操作类型和该诊断操作类型的诊断操作详情，动作子任务信息包括动作操作类型和该动作操作类型的动作操作详情。
可选地，人员动作基本信息包括总时间窗口，诊断操作详情包括诊断操 作类型的诊断操作时间，动作操作详情包括动作操作类型的动作操作时间，对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子包括：
根据诊断操作时间和动作操作时间分别确定诊断任务序列的诊断所需时间和动作任务序列的动作所需时间；
根据总时间窗口和预设的分配方案确定诊断可用时间和动作可用时间；
基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断所需时间、动作所需时间、诊断可用时间和动作可用时间，确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子；
将诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
可选地，对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子包括：
基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断操作详情和动作操作详情，确定额外诊断因子和额外动作因子；
将额外诊断因子和额外动作因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
为了解决上述技术问题，本申请实施例还提供一种人员可靠性评估***，包括：
获取模块，用于获取任务序列，其中，任务序列包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
修正模块，用于对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子，修正绩效影响因子包括诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子；
评估模块，用于根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率。
可选地，获取模块包括：
获取单元，用于获取人员动作基本信息，其中，人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息；
规程单元，用于根据事件描述信息确定目标规程；
任务分析单元，用于对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，其中，每个诊断任务序列包括至少1个诊断子任务信息，每个动作任务序列包括至少1个动作子任务信息。
可选地，任务分析单元包括：
匹配子单元，用于在预设数据库中匹配与目标规程对应的条目，其中，条目包括预设规程指令，预设规程指令指向预设规程类型对应的诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
子任务分析子单元，用于基于表格任务确定条目中的诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，其中，诊断子任务信息包括诊断操作类型和该诊断操作类型的诊断操作详情，动作子任务信息包括动作操作类型和该动作操作类型的动作操作详情。
可选地，人员动作基本信息包括总时间窗口，诊断操作详情包括诊断操作类型的诊断操作时间，动作操作详情包括动作操作类型的动作操作时间，所述修正模块包括：
所需时间单元，用于根据诊断操作时间和动作操作时间分别确定诊断任务序列的诊断所需时间和动作任务序列的动作所需时间；
可用时间单元，用于根据总时间窗口和预设的分配方案确定诊断可用时间和动作可用时间；
可用时间因子单元，用于基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断所需时间、动作所需时间、诊断可用时间和动作可用时间，确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子；
第一修正因子单元，用于将诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
可选地，修正模块还包括：
额外因子单元，用于基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断操作详情和动作操作详情，确定额外诊断因子和额外动作因子；
第二修正因子单元，用于将额外诊断因子和额外动作因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
为了解决上述技术问题，本申请实施例还提供一种计算机设备，包括存储器和处理器，所述存储器中存储有计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现上述人员可靠性评估方法的步骤。
为了解决上述技术问题，本申请实施例还提供一种计算机可读存储介质，所述计算机可读存储介质上存储有计算机程序，所述计算机程序被处理器执行时实现上述的人员可靠性评估方法的步骤。
与现有技术相比，本申请实施例主要有以下有益效果：
通过获取包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列的任务序列，对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列 对应的动作修正影响因子，根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率，即通过分析任务序列，并采用修正处理的方式获取修正绩效影响因子，解决现有技术存在绩效影响影子的定性分析缺失、不清晰、缺乏可信的基础数据的问题，有效的克服了现有技术方案评估过程的不透明问题，进而有效提升了核电站设计的人因安全性评估可信度。
附图说明
为了更清楚地说明本申请中的方案，下面将对本申请实施例描述中所需要使用的附图作一个简单介绍，显而易见地，下面描述中的附图是本申请的一些实施例，对于本领域普通技术人员来讲，在不付出创造性劳动的前提下，还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。
图1是本申请可以应用于其中的示例性***架构图；
图2是本申请的人员可靠性评估方法的一个实施例的流程图；
图3是本申请的人员可靠性评估软件***主界面；
图4是本申请的人员可靠性评估***的一个实施例的结构示意图；
图5是本申请的计算机设备的一个实施例的基本结构框图。
具体实施方式
除非另有定义，本文所使用的所有的技术和科学术语与属于本申请的技术领域的技术人员通常理解的含义相同；本文中在申请的说明书中所使用的术语只是为了描述具体的实施例的目的，不是旨在于限制本申请；本申请的说明书和权利要求书及上述附图说明中的术语“包括”和“具有”以及它们的任何变形，意图在于覆盖不排他的包含。本申请的说明书和权利要求书或上述附图中的术语“第一”、“第二”等是用于区别不同对象，而不是用于描述特定顺序。
在本文中提及“实施例”意味着，结合实施例描述的特定特征、结构或特性 可以包含在本申请的至少一个实施例中。在说明书中的各个位置出现该短语并不一定均是指相同的实施例，也不是与其它实施例互斥的独立的或备选的实施例。本领域技术人员显式地和隐式地理解的是，本文所描述的实施例可以与其它实施例相结合。
为了使本技术领域的人员更好地理解本申请方案，下面将结合附图，对本申请实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述。
如图1所示，***架构100可以包括终端设备101、102、103，网络104和服务器105。网络104用以在终端设备101、102、103和服务器105之间提供通信链路的介质。网络104可以包括各种连接类型，例如有线、无线通信链路或者光纤电缆等等。
终端设备101、102、103可以是具有显示屏并且支持网页浏览的各种电子设备，包括但不限于智能手机、平板电脑、电子书阅读器、MP3播放器(动态影像专家压缩标准音频层面3)、MP4(动态影像专家压缩标准音频层面4)播放器、膝上型便携计算机和台式计算机等等。
服务器105可以是提供各种服务的服务器，例如对终端设备101、102、103上显示的页面提供支持的后台服务器。
需要说明的是，本申请实施例所提供的人员可靠性评估方法一般由服务器/终端设备执行，相应地，人员可靠性评估***一般设置于服务器/终端设备中。
应该理解，图1中的终端设备、网络和服务器的数目仅仅是示意性的。根据实现需要，可以具有任意数目的终端设备、网络和服务器。
继续参考图2，示出了根据本申请的人员可靠性评估方法的一个实施例的流程图。所述的人员可靠性评估方法，包括以下步骤：
S201：获取任务序列，其中，任务序列包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列。
具体地，PSA中所模化的人员动作，在实际核电厂运行中，均有对应的规程存在，人员也是严格依据上述文件开展事故响应活动，基于此，本申请 提出了基于规程的任务分析技术来开展处定性分析，即根据规程的任务序列来获取任务分析。
依据前述分析，事故后操纵员的响应行为分为诊断和动作两部分，实际中操纵员是严格按照规程开展事故的处理，故操纵员的响应过程也就可以划分为依据规程的诊断和依据规程的动作两部分。诊断是操纵员根据自身的知识和经验来理解当前工况、计划和目标，确定合理的动作。动作包括操作设备、布置设备、启动泵和阀和其他根据核电站规程执行的操作。
基于实际规程的任务分析技术也即是依据PSA事件树中包含该人员动作和设备、***自动动作的组合所构成的事故序列和场景，对应规程中选取操纵员实际操作路径，选取过程中可能存在多条可能的路径，可依据事件报告、运行人员的实际经验或模拟机验证或者组织风险分析专业、运行专业与安全分析专业共同商定，确定最为现实的序列，或者全部序列进行评价，并将序列信息上传到人员可靠性评估***。
进一步地，构建人员动作基本信息，其中，人员动作基本信息是根据预设的事件报告表格模式填报的响应行为基本信息，事件报告表格模式包括关键字段，例如，包括事件编码、基本事件描述、始发事件、场景描述、可用时间、时间起点、场景分析等，人员可靠性分析人员根据该关键字段将具体的操纵员的响应行为基本信息如实填报，并将人员动作基本信息上传到人员可靠性评估***。依据预设的规程对人员动作基本信息进行任务分析，以获取包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列在内的任务序列，诊断任务序列包括某个事件诊断过程的多个诊断子任务，即包括多个诊断子任务信息，诊断任务序列包括各个诊断子任务信息的子任务名称、人员/地点、诊断子任务所需时间、DCS平台、所需信息是否易寻、导航次数、所需信息是否存在、所需信息是否集中在一个画面等等，动作任务序列包括某个事件动作过程的多个动作子任务，即包括多个动作子任务信息，动作任务序列包括各个动作子任务信息的子任务名称、人员/地点、动作子任务所需时间、DCS平台、所需信息是否易寻、导航次数、所需信息是否存在、所需信息是否集中在一个画面等 等。
在本实施例中，将人员动作基本信息根据具体规程进行任务分析，以划分成诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，使得操纵员的响应行为过程能得到详细分析和评价，为后续选取PSF提供选取理由，使得后续的评估过程更加透明，有利于人员可靠性评估过程能及时发现问题和提出改进建议。
S202：对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子，修正绩效影响因子包括诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子。
在本实施例中，修正处理是指基于保守性原则的量化准则修正，即基于SPAR-H(Standardized Plant Risk Analysis-Human Reliability Analysis Procedure，事故序列先兆标准化核电站风险分析)原准则进行修正，以调整现有的PSF，此处指修正绩效影响因子，为体现人员可靠性评估的保守性原则，本申请修正了SPAR-H提供的可用时间因子量化准则，经测算，修正后的量化准则可以有效的体现人员可靠性评估过程的保守性。
S203：根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率。
在本实施例中，人员失误概率(Human Error Probability，HEP)近似为诊断失误概率和动作执行失误概率之和。
进一步地，分别计算诊断修正影响因子的诊断失效概率和动作修正影响因子的动作失效概率，并将诊断失效概率和动作失效概率相加得到人员失误概率。
进一步地，SPAR-H方法提供了诊断的名义失误概率(Nominal human error probabilities，NHEP)，即尚未考虑特定电厂PSF影响的人员失误概率，其中，诊断名义失误概率值为1.0E-2，动作名义失误概率值为1.0E-3。
进一步地，诊断失效概率为诊断修正影响因子与诊断名义失误概率值的乘积结果，即修正后的8个诊断PSF与诊断名义失误概率值相乘得到；同样地，动作失效概率为动作修正影响因子与动作名义失误概率值的乘积结果，即修正后的8个动作PSF与动作名义失误概率值相乘得到。如表一是人员失 误概率计算的例子，其中，诊断失效概率＝0.01×2×1×1×0.5×1×1×1×1.0E-2＝1.0E-4，动作失效概率＝1×2×2×1×1×1×1×1×1.0E-3＝4.0E-3。
进一步地，根据如下公式1计算人员失误概率的不确定度：
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000001
其中，P为人员失误概率，α是P的函数，可以通过查询SPAR-H提供的表格得出，例如此处的α＝0.49，β为不确定度。不确定度是指由于测量误差的存在，对被测量值的不能肯定的程度。反过来，也表明该测量结果的可信赖程度，它是测量结果质量的指标。不确定度越小，所述测量结果与被测量的真值愈接近，质量越高，水平越高，其使用价值越高；不确定度越大，测量结果的质量越低，水平越低，其使用价值也越低，即不确信度一方面便于评定其可靠性，另一方面也增强了测量结果之间的可比性。
通过评估人员失误概率和不确定度，可以判断例如是否存在失效概率为1的动作，是否存在失效概率为小于等于1.0E-5的动作，失误概率分布与边界等，以便检查人员可靠性判断结果是否合理。
表1 HEP人员失误概率计算
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000002
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000003
在本实施例中，通过获取包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列的任务序列，对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子，根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率，即通过分析任务序列，并采用修正处理的方式获取修正绩效影响因子，解决现有技术存在绩效影响影子的定性分析缺失、不清晰、缺乏可信的基础数据的问题，有效的克服了现有技术方案评估过程的不透明问题，进而有效提升了核电站设计的人因安全性评估可信度。
在本实施例的一些可选的实现方式中，步骤S201，即获取任务序列包括：
获取人员动作基本信息，其中，人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息；
根据事件描述信息确定目标规程；
对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，其中，每个诊断任务序列包括至少1个诊断子任务信息，每个动作任务序列包括至少1个动作子任务信息。
具体地，事件描述信息包括基本事件描述、电厂状态、始发事件、场景描述、可用时间、时间起点以及场景分析，例如表2所示的人员动作基本信息。
表2人员动作基本信息
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000004
进一步地，规程包括正常运行规程(NOP)、正常运行规程包括总体运行规程(General Operating Procedures，GOPs)、***运行规程(System Operating Procedures，SOPs)、报警响应规程(Alarm Response Procedures，ARPs)、异常运行规程(Abnormal Operating Procedures，AOPs)、应急运行规程(Emergency Operating Procedures，EOPs)等。
其中，EOP应急运行规程分为最佳的恢复操作规程(Optimal Recovery Procedure)、功能恢复操作规程(Function Recovery Procedure)症状导向的EOP规程(symptom-based，EOP)。
最佳的操作规程包括事件导向的EOP规程，事件导向的EOP规程用于恢复反应堆停堆或安注、丧失一回路***冷却剂(LOCA事故)、丧失二次侧冷却剂(二回路***破口)、蒸汽发生器传热管破损事故响应、安全壳外LOCA事故响应等；功能恢复操作规程专用征兆导向的EOP规程，包括关键安全功能恢复操作规程和反应堆停堆安全功能恢复操作规程，其中，用于恢复关键安全功能恢复操作规程堆芯次临界、堆芯冷却、RCS***完整性、安全壳完整性(目前，核电站普遍采用征兆导向规程)。
因此，根据事件描述信息以及上述的规程确定目标规程，例如表二中的 始发事件中为蒸汽发生器管道破损，即可以确定目标规程为征兆导向的EOP规程，进而根据目标规程的特点将人员动作基本信息划分为诊断任务序列和动作任务序列。例如表3中的诊断过程的任务分析，即诊断任务序列和表4中的动作过程的任务分析，即动作任务序列。具体的诊断子任务信息和动作子任务信息已在步骤S201详述，此处不再详述。
表3诊断过程的任务分析
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000005
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000006
表4动作过程的任务分析
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000007
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000008
在本实施例中，通过获取人员动作基本信息，其中，人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息，根据事件描述信息确定目标规程，对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，使得人员可靠性分析过程清晰、全面、充分，便于后续的校核。
在本实施例的一些可选的实现方式中，所述对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列包括：
在预设数据库中匹配与目标规程对应的条目，其中，条目包括预设规程指令，预设规程指令指向预设规程类型对应的诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
基于表格任务确定条目中的诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，其中，诊断子任务信息包括诊断操作类型和该诊断操作类型的诊断操作详情，动作子任务信息包括动作操作类型和该动作操作类型的动作操作详情。
在本申请实施例中，预设数据库包括基于数字化人机接口的基础数据库(如表5所示)和数字化后备盘台的基础数据库(如表6所示)，该数据库是基于核电厂数字化全范围模拟机平台，针对持照运行人员的实际任务执行过程统计而来，该数据库中条目对应于实际操作中目标规程的规程指令，以此可以查询到规程中每个诊断子任务对应的诊断所需时间，每个动作子任务对应的动作所需时间，即每个诊断子任务信息的诊断操作类型、诊断操作类型诊断操作时间、及确定诊断操作详情，每个动作子任务信息的动作操作类型、动作操作类型动作操作时间并确定了动作操作详情，据此可以计算整份规程或部分规程的实际操作所需时间。
进一步地，依据目标规程进行表格任务分析，即可以实现将任务序列划分为诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，以判断PSF中的复杂度(Complexity)、经验/培训(Experience/Training)、规程(Procedures)、人机功效/人机交互(Ergonomics/HMI)的适宜度。针对压力(Stress/Stressors)、工作适应性(Fitness for Duty)和工作过程(Work Processes)等因素，可进一步通过访谈和现场查看，了解工作适应性和工作过程，以便对PSF水平的选择做出基于现实的决策，并将选取理由记录在PSF取值表格之中。
在本申请实施例中，通过在预设数据库中匹配与目标规程对应的条目，基于表格任务确定条目中的诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，基于规程的任务分析技术可以有效的开展定性评价过程，确定数字化人机交互操纵员绩效影响因子水平，同时，基于核电厂数字化人机接口的人因可靠性基础数据库有效的解决了业内制约人员可靠性分析的基 于数字化人机接口的基础数据问题，并实现了定性过程与定量过程的紧密结合。
表5基于数字化人机接口的基础数据库
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000009
表6基于数字化后备盘台的基础数据库
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000010
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000011
进一步地，人员动作基本信息包括总时间窗口，诊断操作详情包括诊断操作类型的诊断操作时间，动作操作详情包括动作操作类型的动作操作时间，步骤S202，即对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子包括：
根据诊断操作时间和动作操作时间分别确定诊断任务序列的诊断所需时间和动作任务序列的动作所需时间；
根据总时间窗口和预设的分配方案确定诊断可用时间和动作可用时间；
基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断所需时间、动作所需时间、诊断可用时间和动作可用时间，确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子；
将诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
具体地，结合人员可靠性评估过程中的保守原则，本申请提出的总时间窗口的划分方案包括：在时间窗口足够的情况下，分配时间窗口时，首先应将较多的时间分配给诊断，作为诊断可用时间，以提供充足的时间用于诊断并降低诊断失效概率，一般应保证能够分配两倍以上或者大于30min的时间窗口，然后将剩余的时间分配给动作，并依据剩余时间评估动作的失效概率。
进一步地，预设的分配方案包括事故后人员的响应过程划分方案，将事故发生后人员的响应过程划分为如下：
在T0时刻，核电厂出现事故；T0到T1之间，事故持续演变和发展；在T1时刻事故被检查到，并向操纵员发出第一个明确信号；
在T1到T2之间，与国际公认的核电站反应堆的设计良好实践相一致,我们认为从安全***启动开始的至少约30分钟内，不需要进行人工干预，也即该时间段全部用来诊断；
在T2时刻，操纵员诊断出事故类型并选定操作规程后开始执行干预措施；T2到T3之间，操纵员执行操作规程并将电厂带到可控状态；在T3时刻电厂 到达可控状态；
在T3到T4之间，操纵员执行操作或监视规程并将电厂带到安停状态；在T4时刻，电厂到达安停状态，以上是事故后人员响应的全部过程。
其中，T1-T2-T3的时间段之间又可以按SPAR-H将人员任务分为诊断任务序列和动作任务序列两类而划分为两段，也即T1到T2时段，操纵员关注到第一个明确信号并开始依据规程进行诊断，T2-T3时段，操纵员依据诊断结果，进入并开始执行操作规程，并将核电厂带到可控状态。
本申请实施例中，修正了SPAR-H提供的可用时间因子量化准则，经测算，修正后的量化准则(如表7和表8所示)可以有效的体现人员可靠性评估过程的保守性。
表7诊断的可用时间PSF因子量化准则修正
SPAR-H原准则 修正后的准则 PSF
1～2倍，＜30min 2～5倍，＜30min 1
1～2倍，＞30min 2～5倍，≥30min 0.1
＞2倍，＞30min ＞5倍，≥30min 0.01
表8动作的可用时间PSF因子量化准则修正
SPAR-H原准则 修正后的准则 PSF
≈1倍 1～1.3倍 10
1～5倍 1.3～5倍 1
＞5倍 ≥5倍 0.1
＞50倍 ≥50倍 0.01
根据每个诊断操作类型的诊断操作时间算出诊断所需时间、根据每个诊动作操作类型的动作操作时间算出动作任务序列的动作所需时间，例如，从表2的人员动作基本信息中可知，完成OP_FB_SGTR_A-1事件的可用时间为6505seconds＝108.4min，从表3诊断过程的任务分析可知诊断所需时间为3minutes，基于预设的分配方案可将诊断可用时间分配为30minutes，则动作可用时间为108.4-30＝78.4minutes，从表4动作过程的任务分析可知动作所需时间为18.5minutes。
进一步地，基于预设的修正量化准则，即基于表7和表8确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子(如表9和表10)，进而确定PSF。
表9诊断PSF定性分析(已修正)
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000012
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000013
表10动作PSF定性分析(已修正)
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000014
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000015
Figure PCTCN2021103650-appb-000016
在本实施例中，通过根据诊断操作时间和动作操作时间分别确定诊断任务序列的诊断所需时间和动作任务序列的动作所需时间，根据总时间窗口和预设的分配方案确定诊断可用时间和动作可用时间，基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断所需时间、动作所需时间、诊断可用时间和动作可用时间，确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子，将诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子作为修正绩效影响因子，可见，修正量化准则使定量评估过程中有效的体现了人员可靠性分析的保守性原则，提高了人员可靠性分析的准确性。
在本实施例的一些可选的实现方式中，步骤S202，即对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子包括：
基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断操作详情和动作操作详情，确定额外诊断因子和额外动作因子；
将额外诊断因子和额外动作因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
进一步地，额外诊断因子包括诊断压力(Stress/Stressors)、诊断复杂度(Complexity)、诊断经验/培训(Experience/Training)、诊断规程(Procedures)、诊断人机功效/人机接口(Ergonomics/HMI)、诊断工作适应性(Fitness for Duty)和诊断工作过程(Work Processes)；额外动作因子包括动作压力(Stress/Stressors)、动作复杂度(Complexity)、动作经验/培训(Experience/Training)、动作规程(Procedures)、动作人机功效/人机接口 (Ergonomics/HMI)、动作工作适应性(Fitness for Duty)和动作工作过程(Work Processes)，确定额外诊断因子和额外动作因子的方式与上述确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子的方式一样，此处不再详述。
图3为本申请的人员可靠性评估软件***主界面，主要包括四个部分：***功能导航、任务序列分析区、人因失误概率评估区、人因边界分析区。通过对操作规程进行任务序列分析，将操作任务分解为诊断任务和动作任务，并拆解为多个子任务，并对诊断任务和动作任务分别进行量化和失效概率计算。将失误概率计算所涉及的任务序列分析结果、所需时间数据以及失效概率计算结果等信息存储于***数据库中，并同时显示在人员可靠性评估软件***主界面。
本领域普通技术人员可以理解实现上述实施例方法中的全部或部分流程，是可以通过计算机程序来指令相关的硬件来完成，该计算机程序可存储于一计算机可读取存储介质中，该程序在执行时，可包括如上述各方法的实施例的流程。其中，前述的存储介质可为磁碟、光盘、只读存储记忆体(Read-Only Memory，ROM)等非易失性存储介质，或随机存储记忆体(Random Access Memory，RAM)等。
应该理解的是，虽然附图的流程图中的各个步骤按照箭头的指示依次显示，但是这些步骤并不是必然按照箭头指示的顺序依次执行。除非本文中有明确的说明，这些步骤的执行并没有严格的顺序限制，其可以以其他的顺序执行。而且，附图的流程图中的至少一部分步骤可以包括多个子步骤或者多个阶段，这些子步骤或者阶段并不必然是在同一时刻执行完成，而是可以在不同的时刻执行，其执行顺序也不必然是依次进行，而是可以与其他步骤或者其他步骤的子步骤或者阶段的至少一部分轮流或者交替地执行。
进一步参考图4，作为对上述图2所示人员可靠性评估***方法的实现，本申请提供了一种人员可靠性评估***的一个实施例的结构示意图，该***实施例与图2所示的方法实施例相对应，该***具体可以应用于各种电子设备中。
如图4所示，本实施例所述的人员可靠性评估***包括：获取模块41、修正模块42以及评估模块43。其中：
获取模块41，用于获取任务序列，其中，任务序列包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
修正模块42，用于对任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子，修正绩效影响因子包括诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子；
评估模块43，用于根据修正绩效影响因子评估人员失误概率。
可选地，获取模块41包括：
获取单元411，用于获取人员动作基本信息，其中，人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息；
规程单元412，用于根据事件描述信息确定目标规程；
任务分析单元413，用于对目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取诊断任务序列和动作任务序列，其中，每个诊断任务序列包括至少1个诊断子任务信息，每个动作任务序列包括至少1个动作子任务信息。
可选地，任务分析单元413包括：
匹配子单元4131，用于在预设数据库中匹配与目标规程对应的条目，其中，条目包括预设规程指令，预设规程指令指向预设规程类型对应的诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
子任务分析子单元4132，用于基于表格任务确定条目中的诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，其中，诊断子任务信息包括诊断操作类型和该诊断操作类型的诊断操作详情，动作子任务信息包括动作操作类型和该动作操作类型的动作操作详情。
可选地，人员动作基本信息包括总时间窗口，诊断操作详情包括诊断操作类型的诊断操作时间，动作操作详情包括动作操作类型的动作操作时间，所述修正模块42包括：
所需时间单元421，用于根据诊断操作时间和动作操作时间分别确定诊断任务序列的诊断所需时间和动作任务序列的动作所需时间；
可用时间单元422，用于根据总时间窗口和预设的分配方案确定诊断可用时间和动作可用时间；
可用时间因子单元423，用于基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断所需时间、动作所需时间、诊断可用时间和动作可用时间，确定诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子；
第一修正因子单元424，用于将诊断可用时间因子和动作可用时间因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
可选地，修正模块42还包括：
额外因子单元425，用于基于预设的修正量化准则、诊断操作详情和动作操作详情，确定额外诊断因子和额外动作因子；
第二修正因子单元426，用于将额外诊断因子和额外动作因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
为解决上述技术问题，本申请实施例还提供计算机设备。具体请参阅图5，图5为本实施例计算机设备基本结构框图。
所述计算机设备5包括通过***总线相互通信连接存储器51、处理器52、网络接口53。需要指出的是，图中仅示出了具有组件51-53的计算机设备5，但是应理解的是，并不要求实施所有示出的组件，可以替代的实施更多或者更少的组件。其中，本技术领域技术人员可以理解，这里的计算机设备是一种能够按照事先设定或存储的指令，自动进行数值计算和/或信息处理的设备，其硬件包括但不限于微处理器、专用集成电路(Application Specific Integrated Circuit，ASIC)、可编程门阵列(Field－Programmable Gate Array，FPGA)、数字处理器(Digital Signal Processor，DSP)、嵌入式设备等。
所述计算机设备可以是桌上型计算机、笔记本、掌上电脑及云端服务器等计算设备。所述计算机设备可以与用户通过键盘、鼠标、遥控器、触摸板或声控设备等方式进行人机交互。
所述存储器51至少包括一种类型的可读存储介质，所述可读存储介质包括闪存、硬盘、多媒体卡、卡型存储器(例如，SD或D人员可靠性评估存储器等)、随机访问存储器(RAM)、静态随机访问存储器(SRAM)、只读存储器(ROM)、电可擦除可编程只读存储器(EEPROM)、可编程只读存储器(PROM)、磁性存储器、磁盘、光盘等。在一些实施例中，所述存储器51可 以是所述计算机设备5的内部存储单元，例如该计算机设备5的硬盘或内存。在另一些实施例中，所述存储器51也可以是所述计算机设备5的外部存储设备，例如该计算机设备5上配备的插接式硬盘，智能存储卡(Smart Media Card,SMC)，安全数字(Secure Digital,SD)卡，闪存卡(Flash Card)等。当然，所述存储器51还可以既包括所述计算机设备5的内部存储单元也包括其外部存储设备。本实施例中，所述存储器51通常用于存储安装于所述计算机设备5的操作***和各类应用软件，例如人员可靠性评估方法的程序代码等。此外，所述存储器51还可以用于暂时地存储已经输出或者将要输出的各类数据。
所述处理器52在一些实施例中可以是中央处理器(Central Processing Unit，CPU)、控制器、微控制器、微处理器、或其他数据处理芯片。该处理器52通常用于控制所述计算机设备5的总体操作。本实施例中，所述处理器52用于运行所述存储器51中存储的程序代码或者处理数据，例如运行所述人员可靠性评估方法的程序代码。
所述网络接口53可包括无线网络接口或有线网络接口，该网络接口53通常用于在所述计算机设备5与其他电子设备之间建立通信连接。
本申请还提供了另一种实施方式，即提供一种计算机可读存储介质，所述计算机可读存储介质存储有人员可靠性评估程序，所述人员可靠性评估程序可被至少一个处理器执行，以使所述至少一个处理器执行如上述的人员可靠性评估方法的步骤。
通过以上的实施方式的描述，本领域的技术人员可以清楚地了解到上述实施例方法可借助软件加必需的通用硬件平台的方式来实现，当然也可以通过硬件，但很多情况下前者是更佳的实施方式。基于这样的理解，本申请的技术方案本质上或者说对现有技术做出贡献的部分可以以软件产品的形式体现出来，该计算机软件产品存储在一个存储介质(如ROM/RAM、磁碟、光 盘)中，包括若干指令用以使得一台终端设备(可以是手机，计算机，服务器，空调器，或者网络设备等)执行本申请各个实施例所述的方法。
显然，以上所描述的实施例仅仅是本申请一部分实施例，而不是全部的实施例，附图中给出了本申请的较佳实施例，但并不限制本申请的专利范围。本申请可以以许多不同的形式来实现，相反地，提供这些实施例的目的是使对本申请的公开内容的理解更加透彻全面。尽管参照前述实施例对本申请进行了详细的说明，对于本领域的技术人员来而言，其依然可以对前述各具体实施方式所记载的技术方案进行修改，或者对其中部分技术特征进行等效替换。凡是利用本申请说明书及附图内容所做的等效结构，直接或间接运用在其他相关的技术领域，均同理在本申请专利保护范围之内。

Claims (10)

  1. 一种人员可靠性评估方法，其特征在于，包括：
    获取任务序列，其中，所述任务序列包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
    对所述任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子，所述修正绩效影响因子包括所述诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和所述动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子；
    根据所述修正绩效影响因子评估所述人员失误概率。
  2. 根据权利要求1所述的人员可靠性评估方法，其特征在于，所述获取任务序列包括：
    获取人员动作基本信息，其中，所述人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息；
    根据所述事件描述信息确定目标规程；
    对所述目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取所述诊断任务序列和所述动作任务序列，其中，每个所述诊断任务序列包括至少1个诊断子任务信息，每个所述动作任务序列包括至少1个动作子任务信息。
  3. 根据权利要求2所述的人员可靠性评估方法，其特征在于，所述对所述目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取所述诊断任务序列和所述动作任务序列包括：
    在预设数据库中匹配与所述目标规程对应的条目，其中，所述条目包括所述预设规程指令，所述预设规程指令指向预设规程类型对应的所述诊断任务序列和所述动作任务序列；
    基于所述表格任务确定所述条目中的所述诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和所述动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，其中，所述诊断子任务信息包括诊断操作类型和该诊断操作类型的诊断操作详情，所述动作子任务信息包括动作操作类型和该动作操作类型的动作操作详情。
  4. 根据权利要求3所述的人员可靠性评估方法，其特征在于，所述人员动作基本信息包括总时间窗口，所述诊断操作详情包括所述诊断操作类型的 诊断操作时间，所述动作操作详情包括所述动作操作类型的动作操作时间，所述模块包括：
    根据所述诊断操作时间和所述动作操作时间分别确定所述诊断任务序列的诊断所需时间和所述动作任务序列的动作所需时间；
    根据所述总时间窗口和预设的分配方案确定所述诊断可用时间和动作可用时间；
    基于预设的修正量化准则、所述诊断所需时间、所述动作所需时间、所述诊断可用时间和所述动作可用时间，确定所述诊断可用时间因子和所述动作可用时间因子；
    将所述诊断可用时间因子和所述动作可用时间因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
  5. 根据权利要求4所述的人员可靠性评估方法，其特征在于，所述对所述任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子包括：
    基于所述预设的修正量化准则、所述诊断操作详情和所述动作操作详情，确定额外诊断因子和额外动作因子；
    将所述额外诊断因子和所述额外动作因子作为修正绩效影响因子。
  6. 一种人员可靠性评估***，其特征在于，包括：
    获取模块，用于获取任务序列，其中，所述任务序列包括诊断任务序列和动作任务序列；
    修正模块，用于对所述任务序列进行修正处理，以获取修正绩效影响因子，所述修正绩效影响因子包括所述诊断任务序列对应的诊断修正影响因子和所述动作任务序列对应的动作修正影响因子；
    评估模块，用于根据所述修正绩效影响因子评估所述人员失误概率。
  7. 根据权利要求6所述的人员可靠性评估***，其特征在于，所述获取模块包括：
    获取单元，用于获取人员动作基本信息，其中，所述人员动作基本信息包括事件描述信息；
    规程单元，用于根据所述事件描述信息确定目标规程；
    任务分析单元，用于对所述目标规程进行表格任务分析，以获取所述诊断任务序列和所述动作任务序列，其中，每个所述诊断任务序列包括至少1个诊断子任务信息，每个所述动作任务序列包括至少1个动作子任务信息。
  8. 根据权利要求6所述的人员可靠性评估***，其特征在于，所述任务分析单元包括：
    匹配子单元，用于在预设数据库中匹配与所述目标规程对应的条目，其中，所述条目包括所述预设规程指令，所述预设规程指令指向预设规程类型对应的所述诊断任务序列和所述动作任务序列；
    子任务分析子单元，用于基于所述表格任务确定所述条目中的所述诊断任务序列的诊断子任务信息和所述动作任务序列的动作子任务信息，其中，所述诊断子任务信息包括诊断操作类型和该诊断操作类型的诊断操作详情，所述动作子任务信息包括动作操作类型和该动作操作类型的动作操作详情。
  9. 一种计算机设备，包括存储器和处理器，所述存储器中存储有计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现如权利要求1至5中任一项所述的人员可靠性评估方法的步骤。
  10. 一种计算机可读存储介质，其特征在于，所述计算机可读存储介质上存储有计算机程序，所述计算机程序被处理器执行时实现如权利要求1至5中任一项所述的人员可靠性评估方法的步骤。
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