WO2020076184A1 - Procédé d'estimation des durées de franchissement des limites des paramètres d'un système technique d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne - Google Patents

Procédé d'estimation des durées de franchissement des limites des paramètres d'un système technique d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2020076184A1
WO2020076184A1 PCT/RU2019/000275 RU2019000275W WO2020076184A1 WO 2020076184 A1 WO2020076184 A1 WO 2020076184A1 RU 2019000275 W RU2019000275 W RU 2019000275W WO 2020076184 A1 WO2020076184 A1 WO 2020076184A1
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Prior art keywords
parameters
warning
technical system
thresholds
remaining until
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PCT/RU2019/000275
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English (en)
Russian (ru)
Inventor
Михаил Валерьевич ЛИФШИЦ
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Акционерное общество "РОТЕК" (АО "РОТЕК")
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Publication of WO2020076184A1 publication Critical patent/WO2020076184A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q90/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for administrative, commercial, financial, managerial or supervisory purposes, not involving significant data processing

Definitions

  • the invention relates to the field of technology, and more specifically to a method for evaluating the timing of the output of parameters of a technical system beyond the warning and alarm.
  • the present invention can find application in the creation, operation, management and monitoring of systems for various purposes, including complex technical systems used in energy, engineering, utilities and other industries.
  • the basis of the present invention is the creation of such a method for estimating the timing of the output of the parameters of the technical system beyond the warning and alarm, which would allow you to manually determine the methods of regression analysis and automatically exit individual parameters or their groups beyond the warning and alarm, as well as determine those parameters , the timing of which values are beyond these limits is minimal.
  • Closest to this invention is a method for evaluating the information content and priority parameters of the technical condition of a computer network (RF patent N ° 2439705), which can be taken as a prototype.
  • the technical solution proposed in the prototype relates to the field of computer technology, namely to the field of monitoring the technical condition (TS) of computer network elements, their monitoring and inspection, and can be used to adjust and reduce the number of controlled characteristics of the computer network TS.
  • TS technical condition
  • the objective of the prototype is to assess the information content and priority of the monitored parameters of the CS CS, reduce the totality of the controlled characteristics by eliminating the least important of them, which will improve the efficiency of diagnostics of the CS CS, reduce the cost of acquiring diagnostic equipment, and carry out a diagnostic process that will increase the availability and operability of the enterprise CS .
  • the parameters of the CS CS the number of subscribers in the network, throughput, subscriber intensity, average customer service time, failure rate, network data loading, conflict loading, etc. can be considered.
  • the technical result of the invention is to increase the efficiency of diagnostics of the TS of a computer network by reasonably reducing the number of monitored parameters of the TS CS during its continuous operation and monitoring the state of the CS in generalized control points that provide the user with maximum information about the diagnosed object, which is achieved by calculating additional probabilities of the output of the CS CS parameters beyond limits of acceptable values and probabilities of network failures.
  • the time and financial costs of diagnosing and further monitoring the technical condition of the CS are reduced.
  • the technical result is achieved by the fact that in the method of evaluating the information content and priority of the parameters of the TS CS, consisting of sending a signal to the analyzer measuring the characteristics of the technical state of the computer network, storing values in the data storage unit, recording the measured values in the data processing unit, in which average values are sequentially calculated of each parameter for all controlled systems (similar to the purpose and operating conditions of the sections of the computer network), calculate the total average value parameters by the number of measurements taken, the elements of the covariance matrix are calculated and the correlation matrix is built on their basis, an additional parameter is calculated - the probability of the network not meeting the tasks by the end of the test (measurement) time, the average values of this parameter and the correlation coefficients are calculated by them, add the last row and the last a column of the obtained correlation matrix of probabilities as the last row and a column to the correlation matrix of parameters of the technical state of the computer network Form a transformation describing the internal connection parameters considered controlled network (or portion thereof), the product of which provides the corresponding columns of the resulting final element of
  • Calculation of additionally evaluated parameters is carried out according to the probability of going beyond the permissible values for each parameter and the probability of the network not meeting the tasks by the end of the test time.
  • the calculation of the additional parameter is carried out in the data processing unit after calculating the correlation matrix of the controlled parameters of the technical state of the computer network, calculate the probability of exceeding the acceptable values for each parameter of the technical state of the computer network and the probability of the network failing to complete tasks by the end of the test time according to the number of network failures, calculation an additional parameter is carried out based on the average probability of network failures for all measurements for each characteristic the technical condition of the computer network and the average probability of network failures for all characteristics for each measurement.
  • the expert receives data on the functioning of the technical system and forms a selection of performance indicators based on the data received;
  • the expert on the basis of a selection of performance indicators, determines by methods of regression analysis based on the parameters of the warning and alarm systems manually and automatically the exit of individual parameters or their groups beyond the limits of warning and alarm systems;
  • the expert on the basis of a sample of performance indicators, determines by methods of regression analysis the parameters, the timing of which values go beyond the warning and alarm limits is minimal;
  • the present invention will be disclosed in the following description of a system for estimating a time frame for a technical system to go beyond a warning and an alarm.
  • test conditions do not change, so the test results are independent.
  • a sample is a collection of independent random variables, and implementation is a collection of observations, that is, a collection of numbers.
  • the expert receives data on the functioning of the technical system and generates a selection of performance indicators based on the data received;
  • the initial information for the regression analysis is a selection of performance indicators, while there is no information on the form of the dependence of T on x.
  • the selection of this dependence is the task of the expert. On how well the selection is made, the quality of the analysis results is largely determined.
  • linear dependence can be considered in a certain interval as a good nonlinear approximation.
  • the linear model for one regressor has the form
  • the vector b will have the size (i + l) x l, and the matrix X will be i x (s +1)
  • I is the identity matrix
  • the parameters bo, bi are deterministic but unknown quantities.
  • the expert should evaluate these values from the sample.
  • the estimates will be sampling functions, i.e., random variables.
  • the minimum variance the scatter around the true value of the parameter being evaluated — is also an obvious requirement.
  • the criterion for evaluating the unknown parameters bo, bi is the minimum of the sum of the squared errors min.
  • the least squares method allows one to obtain estimates for other linear models using calculations similar to those performed above. Suppose, for example, we want to use a one-parameter model
  • the expert determines the calculations described above using regression analysis based on the warning and alarm parameters manually and the individual parameters or their groups go beyond the warning and alarm limits automatically;
  • the expert on the basis of a sample of performance indicators, determines, by methods of regression analysis, parameters whose timing for the values to go beyond the warning and alarm limits is minimal;
  • the inventive method has the maximum versatility and flexibility and allows you to achieve better results, in particular, objectively and automatically predict the exit of individual parameters or their groups beyond the warning and alarm, as well as to determine those parameters, the timing of which values are beyond these limits are minimal.

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  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
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  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
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Abstract

L'invention se rapporte au domaine des techniques et concerne plus précisément un procédé d'estimation des durées de franchissement des limites des paramètres d'un système technique d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne. La présente invention peut être utilisée dans la création, l'exploitation, la commande et la surveillance de systèmes à vocations diverses, y compris des systèmes techniques complexes utilisés dans production énergétique, le génie mécanique, dans la gestion urbaine et dans d'autres domaines. L'objectif de la présente invention est de créer un procédé qui permette d'estimer les durées de franchissement des limites des paramètres d'un système technique d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne, qui permette de déterminer par des procédés d'analyse régressive manuellement et automatiquement le franchissement des limites de paramètres distincts ou de groupes de ces derniers d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne, et de déterminer également quels sont les paramètres dont les durées de franchissement des limites des valeurs sont minimales. En comparaison aux procédés connus des auteurs, le procédé de l'invention offre une universalité et une souplesse maximales, et permet d'obtenir de meilleurs résultats, notamment pour prévoir objectivement et automatiquement le franchissement des limites de paramètres distincts ou de groupes de ces derniers d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne, et de déterminer également quels sont les paramètres dont les durées de franchissement des limites des valeurs sont minimales.
PCT/RU2019/000275 2018-10-08 2019-04-19 Procédé d'estimation des durées de franchissement des limites des paramètres d'un système technique d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne WO2020076184A1 (fr)

Applications Claiming Priority (2)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
RU2018135274A RU2018135274A (ru) 2018-10-08 2018-10-08 Способ оценки сроков выхода параметров технической системы за пределы предупредительной и аварийной сигнализации
RU2018135274 2018-10-08

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2020076184A1 true WO2020076184A1 (fr) 2020-04-16

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PCT/RU2019/000275 WO2020076184A1 (fr) 2018-10-08 2019-04-19 Procédé d'estimation des durées de franchissement des limites des paramètres d'un système technique d'une signalisation d'avertissement et de panne

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RU (1) RU2018135274A (fr)
WO (1) WO2020076184A1 (fr)

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111932071A (zh) * 2020-07-08 2020-11-13 上海微亿智造科技有限公司 工业生产质量分析预警方法和***

Citations (5)

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EA200501201A1 (ru) * 2003-01-30 2006-06-30 Келлогг Браун Энд Рут, Инк. Устройство, способ и система для обеспечения эксплуатации и технического обслуживания в реальном масштабе времени
RU2327105C2 (ru) * 2006-05-23 2008-06-20 Общество с ограниченной ответственностью "Батиз" Способ контроля состояния конструкции здания или инженерно-строительного сооружения и устройство для его осуществления
RU90691U1 (ru) * 2009-09-21 2010-01-20 Сергей Николаевич Баев Автоматическая система пожарной сигнализации и управления пожаротушением в вагонах транспортных средств
RU2010118922A (ru) * 2010-05-11 2011-11-27 Государственное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования "Кубанский государственный технологический универ Способ оценки информативности и приоритетности параметров технического состояния компьютерной сети
CN103295075A (zh) * 2013-04-01 2013-09-11 沈阳航空航天大学 一种超短期电力负荷预测与预警方法

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
EA200501201A1 (ru) * 2003-01-30 2006-06-30 Келлогг Браун Энд Рут, Инк. Устройство, способ и система для обеспечения эксплуатации и технического обслуживания в реальном масштабе времени
RU2327105C2 (ru) * 2006-05-23 2008-06-20 Общество с ограниченной ответственностью "Батиз" Способ контроля состояния конструкции здания или инженерно-строительного сооружения и устройство для его осуществления
RU90691U1 (ru) * 2009-09-21 2010-01-20 Сергей Николаевич Баев Автоматическая система пожарной сигнализации и управления пожаротушением в вагонах транспортных средств
RU2010118922A (ru) * 2010-05-11 2011-11-27 Государственное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования "Кубанский государственный технологический универ Способ оценки информативности и приоритетности параметров технического состояния компьютерной сети
CN103295075A (zh) * 2013-04-01 2013-09-11 沈阳航空航天大学 一种超短期电力负荷预测与预警方法

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111932071A (zh) * 2020-07-08 2020-11-13 上海微亿智造科技有限公司 工业生产质量分析预警方法和***

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RU2018135274A (ru) 2020-04-08

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