WO2014128964A1 - 地震予測装置 - Google Patents
地震予測装置 Download PDFInfo
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- WO2014128964A1 WO2014128964A1 PCT/JP2013/054758 JP2013054758W WO2014128964A1 WO 2014128964 A1 WO2014128964 A1 WO 2014128964A1 JP 2013054758 W JP2013054758 W JP 2013054758W WO 2014128964 A1 WO2014128964 A1 WO 2014128964A1
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- 206010044565 Tremor Diseases 0.000 description 9
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
- G01V1/00—Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
- G01V1/01—Measuring or predicting earthquakes
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
- G01V1/00—Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
- G01V1/28—Processing seismic data, e.g. for interpretation or for event detection
- G01V1/30—Analysis
- G01V1/303—Analysis for determining velocity profiles or travel times
Definitions
- the present invention relates to an earthquake prediction apparatus that uses a revised Mercari seismic intensity scale as an earthquake motion index indicating the magnitude of an earthquake shake, and predicts the magnitude of the earthquake shake in an initial motion portion.
- Patent Document 1 an apparatus for measuring the magnitude of an earthquake shake in real time is known.
- This device detects acceleration components in three directions (up / down, east / west, north / south) of earthquake motion, calculates the acceleration by vector combining these acceleration components, and calculates an index value indicating the magnitude of the earthquake shake from this acceleration By doing so, the magnitude of the earthquake shake is measured in real time.
- Patent Document 2 an apparatus that predicts the magnitude of an earthquake shake at the initial motion part of the earthquake motion is also known (Patent Document 2).
- the vertical acceleration component has a property of being larger than the other acceleration components.
- this device predicts the magnitude of the earthquake shake by detecting the vertical acceleration component of the earthquake motion and calculating an index value indicating the magnitude of the earthquake shake corresponding to this acceleration component. .
- the earthquake prediction apparatus uses MMI as the earthquake motion index, and predicts the magnitude of the earthquake shake early in consideration of the speed of the earthquake motion in the initial motion portion of the earthquake motion.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus includes a vertical acceleration acquisition unit (10, S10), a vertical speed calculation unit (12, S14), and a predicted value calculation unit (16, S14).
- the vertical acceleration acquisition unit (10, S10) sequentially acquires vertical acceleration information indicating an acceleration component in the vertical direction of the earthquake motion from the sensor when the sensor for detecting the earthquake motion starts detecting the earthquake motion.
- the vertical velocity calculation unit (12, S14) sequentially calculates vertical velocity components of the earthquake motion from the vertical acceleration information acquired by the vertical acceleration acquisition unit.
- the predicted value calculation unit (16, S14) uses the maximum absolute value among the absolute values of the speed components sequentially calculated by the vertical speed calculation unit as the maximum speed value (Vumax), and uses the following prediction formula to Is a predicted value (MMIvp) indicating the magnitude of the sway by the index value of the revised Mercari seismic intensity scale.
- ⁇ v and ⁇ v are the maximum absolute value of the absolute values of the vertical velocity component indicated by the ground motion of each earthquake for the multiple earthquakes that occurred in the past, and the maximum absolute value is the explanatory variable (X). It is a regression coefficient calculated in advance by regression analysis using the index value whose magnitude is indicated by the revised Mercari tremor scale as a dependent variable (Y).
- Non-Patent Document 1 when the maximum absolute value of the absolute values of the earthquake motion is Vmax, the magnitude of the earthquake shake can be calculated by using the following calculation formula.
- the calculated value (MMIv) shown in the revised Mercari seismic intensity scale can be obtained.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus of the present invention when used, the magnitude of the earthquake shake can be predicted at an early stage in the initial movement portion of the earthquake using MMI as the earthquake motion index.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus of the present invention predicts the magnitude of the earthquake shake in consideration of the speed of the earthquake motion.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus of the present invention is optimal as an apparatus for predicting earthquake motion on a railway or the like that has many earth structures such as embankments. Therefore, when the earthquake prediction device of the present invention is used, it is possible to suppress an accident in which the train is overturned due to collapse of embankment or the like by stopping the train early using an automatic train stop device when an earthquake occurs.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus of the present invention uses MMI as an earthquake motion index, it is possible to predict earthquakes that are easily understood internationally.
- an adjustment coefficient setting unit (22) for adjusting the adjustment coefficient ( ⁇ v) is provided, and the prediction As a formula, the following prediction formula to which the adjustment coefficient ( ⁇ v) is added may be used.
- the air vibration alarm means a hypersensitivity alarm for small shaking.
- ⁇ v is added to the prediction formula to adjust the magnitude of the calculated predicted value (MMIvp) so that the above two requirements can be met. For example, if the alarm reference value is 5.5 steps of MMI and ⁇ v is ⁇ 1, the idling alarm ratio is close to 0% as shown in FIG. The alarm success rate is close to 100%.
- the earthquake prediction device of the present invention when used, in addition to the effect of the earthquake prediction device of the first aspect of the present invention, prediction according to the user's request becomes possible.
- the prediction value (MMIvp) calculated by the prediction value calculation unit is compared with a predetermined alarm reference value, and the prediction value (MMIvp) is calculated.
- An alarm unit (18, S22 to S24) that performs an alarm when the alarm reference value is exceeded may be provided.
- an earthquake occurrence determination unit (20) that determines the occurrence of an earthquake based on the presence or absence of earthquake motion is provided, and the alarm unit generates an earthquake by the earthquake occurrence determination unit.
- An alarm may be issued when it is determined that the alarm has occurred.
- the reference numerals in parentheses such as the above parts are examples showing the correspondence with the functional blocks described in the embodiments described later, and the present invention is the functional blocks indicated by the reference numerals in the parentheses of the above parts, etc. It is not limited to.
- Calculated values (MMIv) and predicted values (MMIvp) are the earthquakes that have occurred in the past, each of which has a 5.5 level or higher, the timing when the predicted value (MMIvp) has reached 5.5 levels, and the calculated value (MMIv) is It is a bar graph which sorts for every difference with the timing which reached 5.5 steps, and shows the number of the sort. It is the graph which showed the time history change of the predicted value (MMIvp) and the calculated value (MMIv) about the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, and the graph which showed the change from the detection start to the end of the earthquake motion.
- 5B is a graph showing changes in the time history of the predicted value (MMIvp) and the calculated value (MMIv) for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. In order to make the change in the values easy to read, It is the graph which expanded and displayed about the area. It is a flowchart of the earthquake warning process performed with the earthquake prediction apparatus of 1st Embodiment. It is the block diagram which showed each function which the earthquake prediction apparatus of 2nd Embodiment has with the block. It is a graph which shows a mode that an alarm success rate and an idling alarm ratio change when an adjustment coefficient ((gamma) v) is adjusted. It is the block diagram which showed each function which the earthquake prediction apparatus of other embodiment has with the block. It is a flowchart of the earthquake warning process performed with the earthquake prediction apparatus of other embodiment.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 of this embodiment is a computer apparatus provided with CPU, ROM1a, RAM, etc. In FIG. 1, the CPU and RAM are not shown. In addition, an acceleration sensor device 3 and an external alarm device 5 are connected to the earthquake prediction device 1.
- the acceleration sensor device 3 includes three acceleration sensors (vertical acceleration sensor 30, east-west acceleration sensor 32, north-south acceleration sensor 34) for detecting earthquake motion as acceleration components in three directions (vertical, east-west, north-south) orthogonal to each other. ).
- observation points are set in a scattered manner in an area that warns of an earthquake, and the earthquake prediction device 1 and the acceleration sensor device 3 are installed at each observation point.
- this acceleration sensor device 3 when an earthquake wave reaches the observation point, each sensor 30 to 34 starts detecting an acceleration component of the earthquake motion at each observation point, and starts outputting an analog signal indicating each acceleration component. .
- the external alarm device 5 is installed at a location distant from each observation point, and is connected to a plurality of earthquake prediction devices 1 installed at each observation point through a public line. When the external alarm device 5 receives an alarm signal from any of the earthquake prediction devices 1, the external alarm device 5 performs an alarm operation such as outputting an alarm sound or displaying alarm information.
- the external alarm device 5 when the external alarm device 5 is interlocked with the train control device, when receiving an alarm signal, the external alarm device 5 can also execute an alarm operation for instructing the train control device to stop the train.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 includes an acceleration acquisition unit 10, a vertical speed calculation unit 12, a speed recording unit 14, a predicted value calculation unit 16, a first alarm unit 18, and an earthquake occurrence determination unit 20. Yes.
- the functions of these units 10 to 20 are realized by the earthquake prediction device 1 executing an earthquake warning process A described later stored in the ROM 1a.
- the acceleration acquisition unit 10 sequentially inputs analog signals indicating acceleration components in three directions (east-west, north-south, up-down) that are output when each of the sensors 30 to 34 of the acceleration sensor device 3 detects earthquake motion. Sampling is performed at predetermined sampling periods.
- the acceleration acquisition unit 10 sequentially outputs a digital signal obtained by sampling an analog signal indicating the vertical acceleration component of the earthquake motion to the vertical velocity calculation unit 12 and the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20.
- the acceleration acquisition unit 10 sequentially outputs a digital signal obtained by sampling an analog signal indicating an acceleration component in the east-west direction and an acceleration component in the north-south direction to the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20.
- the sampling period is set to 100 Hz, but the present invention is not limited to this.
- positions the acceleration acquisition part 10 in the acceleration sensor apparatus 3, and transmits a digital signal from the acceleration sensor apparatus 3 to the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 may be sufficient.
- the vertical velocity calculation unit 12 integrates the acceleration component with the sampling time (1/100 second) every time a digital signal indicating the vertical acceleration component of the earthquake motion is input from the acceleration acquisition unit 10 for each sampling period. A process of sequentially calculating the vertical velocity component (the unit is kine) of the earthquake motion is executed.
- the speed recording unit 14 executes a process of storing information on the speed component (hereinafter referred to as “vertical speed information”) each time the vertical speed calculation unit 12 calculates the vertical speed component of the earthquake motion.
- the predicted value calculation unit 16 calculates the absolute value of the vertical velocity component from the vertical velocity information recorded in the velocity recording unit 14 every time the vertical velocity calculation unit 12 calculates the vertical velocity component of the earthquake motion.
- a predicted value (MMIvp) in which the magnitude of the earthquake shake is expressed by MMI is sequentially calculated based on a prediction formula described later using the maximum velocity value (Vumax) which is the maximum absolute value.
- the first alarm unit 18 uses the predicted value (MMIvp) calculated by the predicted value calculation unit 16 as a predetermined alarm reference value when the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 determines that an earthquake has occurred. When it is determined that (MMI 5.5 stage) is exceeded, an alarm signal is output to the external alarm device 5.
- the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 is flag information used in an earthquake warning process A (see FIG. 6), which will be described later, and whether or not an earthquake motion is detected at an observation point, that is, whether or not an earthquake is currently occurring.
- the flag storage area 20a for storing the flag information is provided.
- the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 stores the acceleration in the flag storage area 20a when the absolute value of the acceleration exceeds a predetermined earthquake occurrence reference value for determining whether or not an earthquake has occurred. The process of setting the flag information to “1” is executed.
- the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 executes processing for setting the flag information stored in the flag storage area 20a to “0”. Then, the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 outputs the flag information stored in the flag storage area 20a to the first alarm unit 18.
- Vumax is the maximum absolute value among the absolute values of the vertical velocity component of the earthquake motion stored in the velocity recording unit 14.
- the vertical speed calculation unit 12 sequentially calculates the vertical speed component of the earthquake motion, and the calculation result is sequentially stored in the speed recording unit 14. Therefore, the predicted value calculation unit 16 obtains the maximum speed value (Vumax) from the speed recording unit 14 when calculating the predicted value (MMIvp) using the prediction formula.
- ⁇ v and ⁇ v are coefficient values calculated in advance using recorded waveform data of K-NET, which is an earthquake observation network operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention.
- K-NET is an earthquake observation network operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention.
- the maximum absolute value (kine) and the MMI index value of the vertical velocity component of each recorded waveform are obtained, Is plotted on a semilogarithmic graph with the horizontal axis and vertical axis, the relationship shown in FIG.
- ⁇ v and ⁇ v are calculated as regression coefficients by regression analysis with the maximum absolute value of the vertical velocity component in FIG. 2 as the explanatory variable (X) and the MMI index value as the dependent variable (Y).
- Formula MMIv ⁇ log 10 (Vmax) + ⁇
- Vmax is an absolute value of the maximum speed of the ground motion.
- ⁇ is 3.47 and ⁇ is 2.35.
- the predicted value (MMIvp) and the calculated value (MMIv) are both MMI index values indicating 5.5 levels or more. There is an example.
- the predicted value (MMIvp) reached the 5.5 stage of the revised Mercari seismic intensity scale about 4 seconds earlier than the calculated value (MMIv).
- both the predicted value (MMIvp) and the calculated value (MMIv) are earthquake waveforms that reach the 5.5 stage with the index value of MMI, and the maximum seismic intensity in the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake is the index value of MMI.
- the predicted value (MMIvp) is about 8 seconds ahead of the calculated value (MMIv). It reached 5.5 stage.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 can use MMI as a seismic motion index and can predict at an early stage whether or not the initial motion portion of the seismic motion will cause a shake having a required magnitude.
- the earthquake warning processing A of the present embodiment is started when a power switch (not shown) of the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 is turned on, and thereafter repeatedly executed until the power switch is turned off every sampling cycle.
- this earthquake warning process A first, the acceleration acquisition process of S10 is executed.
- S10 an analog signal indicating the acceleration component in the three directions (east-west, north-south, up-down) of the ground motion detected by the acceleration sensor device 3 from the acceleration sensor device 3 is processing executed by the acceleration acquisition unit 10. Are sequentially input and sampled.
- a digital signal indicating the vertical acceleration component of the sampled ground motion is output to the vertical velocity calculation unit 12 and the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20, and the digital signal indicating the acceleration component in the east-west direction and the acceleration component in the north-south direction is output.
- a process of outputting a signal to the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 is executed.
- the speed and MMIvp calculation process of S12 is executed.
- the process executed by the vertical speed calculation unit 12 is executed to calculate the vertical speed component of the earthquake motion from the vertical acceleration component of the earthquake motion indicated by the digital signal from the acceleration acquisition unit 10.
- the process is executed by the predicted value calculation unit 16, and the maximum absolute value of the absolute values of the velocity components in the vertical direction is selected from the vertical velocity information recorded in the velocity recording unit 14.
- a process of calculating a predicted value (MMIvp) is executed using a certain maximum speed value (Vumax).
- a process executed by the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20 is a process for calculating the acceleration of the ground motion at the observation point from the acceleration components in the three directions of the ground motion converted into digital signals by the acceleration acquisition unit 10. Executed.
- S16 processing for determining whether an earthquake has occurred is executed.
- This S16 is processing performed by the first alarm unit 18, and specifically, the flag stored in the flag storage area 20a is “1” indicating that an earthquake is occurring, or an earthquake has occurred.
- a process of determining whether the value is “0” indicating no normal state is executed.
- S18 processing for determining whether or not the absolute value of the acceleration of the seismic motion at the observation point is larger than the above-described earthquake occurrence reference value is executed. This S18 is executed by the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20.
- This S22 is a process executed by the first alarm unit 18, and the predicted value (MMIvp) calculated in S12 is greater than or equal to an alarm reference value serving as an alarm reference, that is, at an MMI of 5.5 or more levels. Processing for determining whether or not there is is executed.
- This S27 is executed by the earthquake occurrence determination unit 20.
- processing for determining whether or not the absolute value of the acceleration at the observation point is equal to or less than the above-described earthquake occurrence reference value is executed.
- the earthquake alarm process A is immediately terminated, and the processes after S10 are executed again. 4).
- the predicted value (MMIvp) and the calculated value (MMIv) of the earthquake motion of the earthquake that occurred in the past are compared, as shown in FIG. It was found that the predicted value (MMIvp) reaches the warning reference value earlier than the calculated value (MMIv) in the initial movement part.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 when used, it is possible to predict the occurrence of an earthquake requiring an alarm at an early stage using the MMI as an earthquake motion index. In addition, the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment predicts the magnitude of the earthquake shake in consideration of the speed of the earthquake motion.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 of the present embodiment is optimal as an earthquake prediction apparatus for a railway or the like that has many earth structures such as embankments. That is, if the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 of this embodiment is used as an earthquake prediction apparatus for a railway or the like that has many earth structures such as embankments, for example, when an earthquake occurs, the train is stopped early using an automatic train stop device, Accidents where the train overturns due to the collapse of the train can be suppressed.
- the elevator can be stopped, or the occurrence of an earthquake can be notified to a person through television or the like.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 of this embodiment since the occurrence of an earthquake that requires a warning is predicted at an early stage using the MMI, it is possible to predict an earthquake that is easy to understand internationally.
- an alarm is issued only when the predicted value (MMIvp) exceeds a predetermined earthquake occurrence reference value (S22 ⁇ S24), so an earthquake that does not require an alarm occurs. In this case, it is possible to suppress the waste of alarming.
- a predetermined earthquake occurrence reference value S22 ⁇ S24
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 of the present embodiment is different from the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 of the first embodiment in that an adjustment coefficient setting unit 22 is provided.
- the present embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that an adjustment value ⁇ v is added to a prediction formula for calculating a prediction value (MMIvp) used in the prediction value calculation unit 16.
- Prediction formula MMIvp ⁇ vlog 10 (Vumax) + ⁇ v + ⁇ v
- ⁇ v can be adjusted from ⁇ 1 to 1, and for example, a rotary adjustment knob is used as the adjustment coefficient setting unit 22. By changing the amount of rotation and the like, ⁇ v can be adjusted by human operation. What can adjust the value is provided.
- the predicted value calculation unit 16 uses the value set as the adjustment value ⁇ v set by the adjustment coefficient setting unit 22 to calculate the predicted value (MMIvp) using a prediction formula to which this ⁇ v is added.
- the calculation of the predicted value (MMIvp) is performed using the above-described prediction formula with ⁇ v added.
- the alarm success rate and the air vibration alarm ratio are calculated using the earthquake motion data recorded in the K-NET.
- the alarm success rate is a ratio of the total value of the calculated value (MMIv) of 5.5 or more to the predicted value (MMIvp) of 5.5 or more. This is the ratio of earthquakes where the calculated value (MMIv) is less than 5.5 out of the total of 5.5 or more.
- the alarm success rate becomes higher as ⁇ v is closer to 1, and is almost 100% when ⁇ v is 1. Conversely, the alarm success rate decreases as ⁇ v approaches ⁇ 1, and is about 40% when ⁇ v is set to ⁇ 1.
- the earthquake prediction device 1 of the present embodiment has the following effects in addition to the effects exhibited by the earthquake prediction device 1 of the first embodiment.
- the earthquake prediction device 1 of the present embodiment When the earthquake prediction device 1 of the present embodiment is used to predict and warn of the occurrence of an earthquake at an early stage, for example, the following two requests are expected as user requests.
- One is that if you want to be alerted when you predict the occurrence of an earthquake that requires caution, whether or not an earthquake that requires caution is really occurring, If you want to increase the alarm success rate, you can consider.
- an alarm may not be given when an earthquake that requires vigilance occurs, so that an alarm should not be given when an earthquake that requires vigilance does not occur. If you want it, i.e., if you want to lower the idling alarm ratio.
- ⁇ v is added to the prediction formula to adjust the magnitude of the calculated predicted value (MMIvp) so that the above two requirements can be met. For example, if the alarm reference value is 5.5 steps of MMI and ⁇ v is ⁇ 1, the idling alarm ratio is close to 0% as shown in FIG. The alarm success rate is close to 100%.
- the information regarding the vertical acceleration component of the earthquake motion indicated by the analog signal output from the vertical acceleration sensor 30 of the above-described embodiment corresponds to an example of the vertical acceleration information of the present invention.
- the process executed by the acceleration acquisition unit 10 in the process of S10 of the above-described embodiment corresponds to an example of the vertical acceleration acquisition unit described in the claims.
- the process executed by the vertical speed calculation unit 12 in the process of S14 of the above-described embodiment corresponds to an example of the vertical speed calculation unit described in the claims.
- the process performed by the predicted value calculation unit 16 in the process of S14 of the above-described embodiment corresponds to an example of the predicted value calculation unit described in the claims.
- the process in which the first alarm unit 18 transmits an alarm signal to the external alarm device 5 is an example of the process in which the alarm unit described in the claims issues an alarm. It corresponds to. (Other embodiments)
- the external alarm device 5 has been described as a device capable of communicating with the earthquake prediction device 1 via a public line.
- an alarm device that emits an alarm sound provided in the earthquake prediction device 1 may be used.
- the earthquake prediction apparatus 1 may include a general earthquake determination unit 24 and a second alarm unit 26 that determine and warn of an earthquake by a conventional determination method.
- the general earthquake determination unit 24 determines that an earthquake has occurred
- the second alarm unit 26 executes processing for issuing an alarm to the external alarm device 5. For this reason, in the earthquake prediction device 1 of the present embodiment, if it is determined that an earthquake has occurred in either the first alarm unit 18 or the second alarm unit 26, an alarm is issued in the external alarm device 5.
- the adjustment coefficient setting unit 22 may or may not be provided. And when these general earthquake determination parts 24 and the 2nd alarm part 26 are provided, as shown in FIG. 10, you may make it perform the process of S25 and S26 between S24 and S27.
- S25 it is determined whether an earthquake has occurred by a conventional method. If it is determined that an earthquake has occurred (S25: YES), in S26, a second alarm different from the early warning in the above embodiment is used. A process for executing the alarm is executed.
- each part constituting the earthquake prediction device 1 of the present embodiment can be realized by a computer connected to the acceleration sensor device 3 and the external alarm device 5 by a program stored in the ROM 1a.
- the program may be used by being loaded into the computer from the ROM 1a or the backup RAM, or may be loaded and used for the computer via a network.
- this program may be used by being recorded on a recording medium of any form readable by a computer.
- the recording medium include a portable semiconductor memory (for example, a USB memory, a memory card (registered trademark), etc.).
- the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment as long as it meets the gist of the invention described in the claims.
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Abstract
Description
この装置は、地震動の3方向(上下、東西、南北)の加速度成分を検出し、これら加速度成分をベクトル合成して加速度を算出し、この加速度から地震の揺れの大きさを示す指標値を算出することによって、地震の揺れの大きさをリアルタイムに計測する。
上述した地震動の3方向の加速度成分のうち上下方向の加速度成分は、他の加速度成分よりも大きな値となる性質を有している。
しかし、地震動指標は、国際的には、改正メルカリ震度階(MMI:Modified Mercalli Intensity)が用いられており、上記特許文献1,2に記載された装置は、そのまま海外で使用することはできない。
例えば、Waldらは、地震動の加速度や速度からMMIの指標値を推計する方法を提案しており(非特許文献1)、また、日本国内でも、中村が、地震動指標としてMMIを用いて地震の揺れの大きさを実測する方法(非特許文献2)を提案している。
また、盛土等の土構造物や木造建築物等の比較的固有周期が長い構造物に対する地震による被害の大きさは、地震動の速度との相関性が高いと考えられている。
上下加速度取得部(10、S10)は、地震動を検出するセンサが地震動の検出を始めると、地震動の上下方向の加速度成分を示す上下加速度情報を、センサから順次取得するものである。
予測値算出部(16、S14)は、上下速度算出部で順次算出された速度成分の絶対値のうち、最大の絶対値を最大速度値(Vumax)とし、下記の予測式を用いて、地震の揺れの大きさを改正メルカリ震度階の指標値で示した予測値(MMIvp)を算出するものである。
但し、αv及びβvは、過去に発生した複数の地震について、各地震の地震動が示す上下方向の速度成分の絶対値のうち、最大の絶対値を説明変数(X)とし、各地震の揺れの大きさを改正メルカリ震動階で示した指標値を従属変数(Y)として、回帰分析により予め算出された回帰係数である。
この計算式におけるαは3.47、βは2.35である。
そして、これら予測式と計算式とから導かれる予測値(MMIvp)と計算値(MMIv)とを比較すると、図5Bに示すように、地震の初動の部分では、予測値(MMIvp)のほうが計算値(MMIv)よりも早く、上昇することが分かった。
また、本発明の地震予測装置は、地震動の速度を考慮し、その地震の揺れの大きさを予測している。
従って、本発明の地震予測装置を用いると、地震発生時に、自動列車停止装置を用いて早期に列車を止め、盛土等の崩壊により列車が転覆等する事故を抑制することができる。
次に、本発明の第2局面の地震予測装置のように、第1局面の地震予測装置の構成に加え、調整係数(γv)を調整する調整係数設定部(22)を備え、且つ、予測式としては、この調整係数(γv)を加えた下記の予測式を用いてもよい。
本発明の地震予測装置を用いて地震の揺れの大きさを予測して警報する場合、ユーザ側の要求としては、例えば、次の二つの要求が予想される。
例えば、警報基準値をMMIの5.5段階とし、γvを-1とした場合、図8に示すように、空振警報比率は0%に近くなり、逆に、γvを1とした場合は、警報成功率は100%に近くなる。
次に、本発明の第3局面の地震予測装置のように、予測値算出部で算出された予測値(MMIvp)と予め定められた警報基準値とを比較して、予測値(MMIvp)が警報基準値を越えた場合、警報を行う警報部(18、S22~S24)を備えてもよい。
10… 加速度取得部 12… 上下速度算出部 14… 速度記録部
16… 予測値算出部 18… 第1警報部 20… 地震発生判定部
20a… フラグ記憶領域 22… 調整係数設定部
24… 一般地震判定部 26… 第2警報部 30…上下加速度センサ
32… 東西加速度センサ 34… 南北加速度センサ
(第1実施形態)
1.地震予測装置1
第1実施形態の地震予測装置1について、図1を用いて説明する。尚、第1実施形態について説明する以下の欄では、第1実施形態を本実施形態と言う。
また、この地震予測装置1には、加速度センサ装置3と、外部警報装置5とが接続されている。
この加速度センサ装置3は、その観測点に地震波が到達すると、各センサ30~34が各観測点での地震動の加速度成分の検出をそれぞれ開始し、各加速度成分を示すアナログ信号の出力を開始する。
そして、この外部警報装置5は、いずれかの地震予測装置1から警報信号を受信すると、警報音を出力したり、警報情報を表示するなどの警報動作を実行する。
これら各部10~20の機能は、地震予測装置1が、ROM1aに記憶された後述する地震警報処理Aを実行することにより実現される。
尚、本実施形態では、サンプリング周期は100Hzに設定されているが、これに限られるものではない。(加速度取得部10を加速度センサ装置3に配置し、加速度センサ装置3から地震予測装置1へデジタル信号を伝送する形態でもよい。)
上下速度算出部12は、加速度取得部10から地震動の上下方向の加速度成分を示すデジタル信号をサンプリング周期ごとに入力するたびに、その加速度成分をサンプリング時間(1/100秒)で積分して、地震動の上下方向の速度成分(単位はkine)を順次算出する処理を実行する。
そして、地震発生判定部20は、フラグ記憶領域20aに記憶されたフラグ情報を第1警報部18に出力する。
次に、本実施形態で用いられている下記の予測式について説明する。
予測式 MMIvp=αvlog10(Vumax)+βv
この予測式は、地震の揺れの大きさを改正メルカリ震度階の指標値で示した予測値(MMIvp)を求めるものである。
上述のように、上下加速度センサ30が地震動の検出を始めると、加速度取得部10が、上下加速度センサ30から出力される地震動の上下方向の加速度成分を示すアナログ信号を順次入力する。
そのため、予測値算出部16は、上記予測式を用いて予測値(MMIvp)を算出するとき、この速度記録部14から最大速度値(Vumax)を得ている。
過去に発生した13回の地震時にK-NETで記録された2323個の記録波形データについて、各記録波形の上下方向速度成分の絶対値の最大値(kine)とMMIの指標値を求め、それぞれを横軸、縦軸にとった片対数グラフ上にプロットすると、図2に示すような関係を示す。
ここで、Vmaxは、地震動の最大速度の絶対値である。
また、αは3.47、βは2.35である。
ここで、予測値(MMIvp)と計算値(MMIv)が共にMMIの指標値で5.5段階に達する地震波形であって、2011年の東北地方太平洋沖地震で最大震度がMMIの指標値で9.5段階となる地震波形についてみると、図5Bに示すように、地震動の初期段階では、予測値(MMIvp)が計算値(MMIv)よりも、約8秒先行して、MMIの指標値で5.5段階に達していた。
つまり、本実施形態の地震予測装置1は、地震動指標としてMMIを用い、地震動の初動部分において、警報が必要な大きさの揺れとなるかどうかを早期に予測することができる。
次に、本実施形態の地震予測装置1で実行される地震警報処理Aについて、図6を用いて説明する。
このS10では、加速度取得部10で実行される処理であって、加速度センサ装置3から、この加速度センサ装置3で検出された地震動の3方向(東西、南北、上下)の加速度成分を示すアナログ信号を順次入力して、サンプリングする処理が実行される。
このS12では、上下速度算出部12で実行される処理であって、加速度取得部10からデジタル信号が示す地震動の上下方向の加速度成分から、地震動の上下方向の速度成分を算出する処理が実行される。
次に、S16の処理が実行される。
このS16では、地震が発生しているか判定する処理が実行される。
このS16は、第1警報部18で行われる処理であって、具体的には、フラグ記憶領域20aに記憶されたフラグが、地震発生中を示す「1」であるか、地震が発生していない通常状態を示す「0」であるかを判定する処理が実行される。
このS18は、地震発生判定部20で実行される。
このS22は、第1警報部18で実行される処理であって、S12で算出された予測値(MMIvp)が、警報の基準となる警報基準値以上、すなわち、MMIで5.5段階以上であるか判定する処理が実行される。
一方、S22において、予測値(MMIvp)がMMIで5.5段階未満であると判定された場合(S22:NO)、次にS27の処理が実行される。
S27では、S18と反対に、観測点の地震動の加速度の大きさが、予め定めた地震発生基準値よりも小さいか否かを判定する処理が実行される。
4.本実施形態の地震予測装置の特徴的な作用効果
上述したように、過去に発生した地震の地震動の予測値(MMIvp)と計算値(MMIv)とを比較すると、図5Bに示すように、地震の初動の部分では、予測値(MMIvp)のほうが計算値(MMIv)よりも早く警報基準値に達することが分かった。
また、本実施形態の地震予測装置1は、地震動の速度を考慮し、その地震の揺れの大きさを予測している。
つまり、本実施形態の地震予測装置1は、例えば盛土等の土構築物が多い鉄道等に対する地震の予測装置として用いれば、地震発生時に、自動列車停止装置を用いて早期に列車を止め、盛土等の崩壊により列車が転覆等する事故を抑制することができる。
さらに、本実施形態の地震予測装置1では、警報が必要な地震の発生を、MMIを用いて早期に予測しているので、国際的にもわかりやすい地震の予測が可能である。
(第2実施形態)
次に、本発明の第2実施形態について説明する。
1.地震予測装置1
本実施形態の地震予測装置1は、図7に示すように、調整係数設定部22を備えている点が、第1実施形態の地震予測装置1とは異なる。
予測式 MMIvp=αvlog10(Vumax)+βv+γv
本実施形態では、γvは-1~1まで調整することができ、調整係数設定部22としては、例えば回転式の調整ツマミが用いられ、その回転量等を変えることで人の操作によりγvの値を調整することができるものが備えられる。
尚、本実施形態の地震予測装置1で実行される地震警報処理AのS22でも、予測値(MMIvp)の算出は、上述のγvを加えた予測式を用いて行われる。
次に、警報成功率、及び、空振警報比率について図8を用いて説明する。
この警報成功率、及び、空振警報比率は、K-NETに記録された地震の地震動のデータを用いて算出したものである。
空振警報比率は、予測値(MMIvp)が5.5以上になるものの総数のうち、計算値(MMIv)が5.5未満となる地震の割合である。
3.本実施形態の地震予測装置の特徴的な作用効果
本実施形態の地震予測装置1は、第1実施形態の地震予測装置1が奏する効果に加え、下記のような効果も奏する。
一つは、予測ははずれてもよいから、警戒が必要な地震の発生を予測したとき、警戒が必要な地震が本当に発生しているか否かにかかわらず、すべて警報して欲しいと望む場合すなわち、警報成功率を高めたい場合、が考えられる。
例えば、警報基準値をMMIの5.5段階とし、γvを-1とした場合、図8に示すように、空振警報比率は0%に近くなり、逆に、γvを1とした場合は、警報成功率は100%に近くなる。
一方、γvを-1とした場合、警戒が必要な地震が発生しているときに警報がなされない場合があるが、警戒が必要な地震が発生していないときに警報がなされることはない。
(対応関係)
上述の実施形態の上下加速度センサ30から出力されたアナログ信号が示す地震動の上下方向の加速度成分に関する情報が、本発明の上下加速度情報の一例に相当する。
上述の実施形態のS14の処理において上下速度算出部12が実行する処理が、特許請求の範囲に記載された上下速度算出部の一例に相当する。
上述の実施形態のS22~S24の処理において、第1警報部18が外部警報装置5に対して警報信号を送信する処理が、特許請求の範囲に記載された警報部が警報を行う処理の一例に相当する。
(その他の実施形態)
上記実施形態では、加速度センサ装置3は、地震予測装置1とは別装置として説明したが、地震予測装置1に組み込まれていてもよい。
また、図9に示すように、地震予測装置1には、従来の判定方法により地震を判定し、警報する一般地震判定部24と第2警報部26とを備えるようにしてもよい。
このため、本実施形態の地震予測装置1では、第1警報部18または第2警報部26のいずれかで地震が発生したと判定されたら、外部警報装置5において警報がなされることとなる。
そして、これら一般地震判定部24と第2警報部26とを備える場合、図10に示すように、S24からS27の間で、S25及びS26の処理を実行するようにしてもよい。
尚、本実施形態の地震予測装置1を構成する各部の機能10~26は、ROM1aに記憶されたプログラムにより、加速度センサ装置3と外部警報装置5が接続されたコンピュータに実現させることができるが、このプログラムは、ROM1aやバックアップRAMからコンピュータにロードされて用いられてもよいし、ネットワークを介してコンピュータにロードされて用いられてもよい。
Claims (4)
- 地震動を検出するセンサが地震動の検出を始めると、前記地震動の上下方向の加速度成分を示す上下加速度情報を、前記センサから順次取得する上下加速度取得部(10、S10)と、
前記上下加速度取得部が取得した前記上下加速度情報から、前記地震動の上下方向の速度成分を順次算出する上下速度算出部(12、S12)と、
前記上下速度算出部で順次算出された前記速度成分の絶対値のうち、最大の絶対値を最大速度値(Vumax)とし、下記の予測式を用いて、地震の揺れの大きさを改正メルカリ震度階の指標値で示した予測値(MMIvp)を算出する予測値算出部(16、S12)と
を備えることを特徴とする地震予測装置。
予測式 MMIvp=αvlog10(Vumax)+βv
但し、αv及びβvは、回帰分析により予め算出された回帰係数である。 - 請求項1に記載の地震予測装置において、
調整係数(γv)を調整する調整係数設定部(22)を備え、
前記予測値算出部は、前記調整係数(γv)を加えた下記の予測式を用いて前記予測値(MMIvp)を算出する、
ことを特徴とする地震予測装置。
予測式 MMIvp=αvlog10(Vumax)+βv+γv - 請求項1,2のいずれか1項に記載の地震予測装置において、
前記予測値算出部で算出された前記予測値(MMIvp)と、予め定められた警報基準値とを比較して、前記予測値(MMIvp)が前記警報基準値を越えた場合、警報を行う警報部(18、S22~S24)
を備えることを特徴とする地震予測装置。 - 請求項3に記載の地震予測装置において、
前記地震動の有無により地震の発生を判定する地震発生判定部(20)を備え、
前記警報部は、
前記地震発生判定部により、前記地震が発生していると判定されているときに警報を行うことを特徴とする地震予測装置。
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EP13875835.4A EP2960677A4 (en) | 2013-02-25 | 2013-02-25 | APPARATUS FOR PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES |
US14/770,398 US20160011325A1 (en) | 2013-02-25 | 2013-02-25 | Earthquake prediction device |
CN201380073794.8A CN105074503B (zh) | 2013-02-25 | 2013-02-25 | 地震预测装置 |
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JP2017166832A (ja) * | 2016-03-14 | 2017-09-21 | オムロン株式会社 | 感震センサ及び地震検知方法 |
JP6851150B2 (ja) * | 2016-07-11 | 2021-03-31 | リンナイ株式会社 | ガスコンロ |
TWI620154B (zh) * | 2017-04-11 | 2018-04-01 | 楊偉智 | 使用者裝置、地震警報伺服器及其地震警報方法 |
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CN113268852B (zh) * | 2021-04-14 | 2022-02-22 | 西南交通大学 | 一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的地震滑坡概率危险性分析方法 |
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DAVID J. WALD ET AL.: "Relationships between Peak Ground Acceleration", PEAK GROUND VELOCITY, AND MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY IN CALIFORNIA, EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA, vol. 15, no. 3, 1 August 1999 (1999-08-01), pages 557 - 564, XP008180892 * |
DAVID J. WALD; VINCENT QUITORIANO; THOMAS H. HEATON; HIROO KANAMORI: "Relationships between Peak Ground Acceleration, Peak Ground Velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California", EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA, vol. 15, no. 3, August 1999 (1999-08-01), XP008180892 |
See also references of EP2960677A4 |
YUTAKA NAKAMURA: "Examination of Rational Ground Motion Index Value - Relationship between Ground Motion Indices based on DI Value", COLLECTION OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING PAPERS BY JAPAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, 2003 |
Cited By (2)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP2019086480A (ja) * | 2017-11-10 | 2019-06-06 | 株式会社ミエルカ防災 | 地震警報システム |
JP7015523B2 (ja) | 2017-11-10 | 2022-02-15 | 有限会社日新情報 | 地震警報システム |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
---|---|
US20160011325A1 (en) | 2016-01-14 |
EP2960677A4 (en) | 2016-10-12 |
JP6189922B2 (ja) | 2017-08-30 |
HK1212451A1 (en) | 2016-06-10 |
CN105074503B (zh) | 2018-04-10 |
EP2960677A1 (en) | 2015-12-30 |
JPWO2014128964A1 (ja) | 2017-02-02 |
CN105074503A (zh) | 2015-11-18 |
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