WO2011092882A1 - System for predicting output from solar electric generating facility ,weather predicting system, and method for predicting output from solar electric generating facility - Google Patents
System for predicting output from solar electric generating facility ,weather predicting system, and method for predicting output from solar electric generating facility Download PDFInfo
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- WO2011092882A1 WO2011092882A1 PCT/JP2010/064200 JP2010064200W WO2011092882A1 WO 2011092882 A1 WO2011092882 A1 WO 2011092882A1 JP 2010064200 W JP2010064200 W JP 2010064200W WO 2011092882 A1 WO2011092882 A1 WO 2011092882A1
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- 230000002401 inhibitory effect Effects 0.000 abstract 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 27
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 12
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
Definitions
- the present invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system, a weather prediction system, and a solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction method.
- the power generation amount to be predicted is an objective function
- the past power generation amounts of the prediction target and other solar power generation facilities are used as explanatory variables
- regression analysis is performed on past performance data to derive a power generation amount prediction formula. .
- the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be predicted is strongly influenced by weather conditions such as solar radiation intensity.
- the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility is determined without using the weather prediction information. Can be predicted.
- the amount of power generated by solar power generation facilities is affected not only by weather conditions such as solar radiation intensity, but also by the voltage conditions of the interconnected distribution system. This is because the photovoltaic power generation facility may perform control to suppress power generation for the purpose of maintaining the voltage of the distribution system in an appropriate range when the voltage at the interconnection point increases.
- the voltage distribution of the distribution system varies depending on the power generation status of the photovoltaic power generation equipment and the load status of the customer.
- a first object of the present invention is to provide a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and a prediction method capable of accurately predicting the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility by removing the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system. It is in.
- the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility will be converted to weather conditions (especially solar radiation intensity) with high accuracy.
- a second object of the present invention is to provide a weather prediction system capable of predicting weather with high accuracy based on the amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility.
- the present invention predicts the power generation amount of each solar power generation facility at a future time by using the past power generation result data for a plurality of solar power generation facilities.
- Power generation amount prediction system for solar power generation equipment, and the past power generation result data of each solar power generation equipment is used to reduce the power generation amount due to power generation suppression and shadows to suppress voltage increase at the distribution system connection point
- the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit for obtaining the power generation amount correction value when there is no such effect, and a plurality of solar power generation units obtained by the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit Using the correlation model identification unit for identifying the correlation between the correction values of the generation amount of the facility between the photovoltaic generation facilities and the correlation model identified by the correlation model identification unit for the generation amount correlation between the photovoltaic generation facilities Of each solar power generation facility It is obtained so as to comprise a PV system power generation amount prediction unit for predicting a power generation amount of coming time.
- This configuration eliminates the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system and makes it possible to predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility with high accuracy.
- correction needs to be set as correction necessity degree data for the facility according to the degree to which the amount of power generation is reduced due to the operation or shadow of the voltage increase suppression control A degree determination unit, and the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit obtains a power generation amount correction value using the correction necessity degree set by the correction necessity degree determination unit.
- the correction necessity determination unit is required to correct the coefficient K1 calculated from the power generation rates of all the solar power generation facilities, and the voltages of all the solar power generation facilities. At least one of the necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K2 calculated from the degree of lowering and the degree of necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K3 calculated from the voltage rise suppression rate of all photovoltaic power generation facilities This is set as correction necessity data.
- the present invention is based on the past power generation data of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities. It is obtained by a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation correction unit that eliminates the effects of power generation reduction due to shadows, etc., and obtains a correction value of the power generation amount when there is no such influence, and the solar power generation facility power generation correction unit.
- the power generation amount correlation model identifying unit for identifying the correlation between the correction values of the power generation amounts of the plurality of solar power generation facilities, and the power generation amount correlation model identifying unit for the solar power generation facilities
- a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit that predicts a future power generation amount of each solar power generation facility, and the future power generation predicted by the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit Convert predicted amount of solar radiation to solar radiation intensity That is obtained as provided with weather information conversion unit.
- Such a configuration makes it possible to predict the weather with high accuracy based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility.
- a degree determination unit, and the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit obtains a power generation amount correction value using the correction necessity degree set by the correction necessity degree determination unit.
- the correction necessity degree determining unit is required to correct the coefficient K1 calculated from the power generation rates of all the solar power generation facilities, and the voltages of all the solar power generation facilities. At least one of the necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K2 calculated from the degree of lowering and the degree of necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K3 calculated from the voltage rise suppression rate of all photovoltaic power generation facilities This is set as correction necessity data.
- this invention estimates the electric power generation amount of the future time of each solar power generation facility using the historical data of the past power generation amount about several solar power generation facilities.
- ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, it becomes possible to estimate the electric power generation amount in the future of the solar power generation installation installed in a consumer with high precision, without using weather information. It is also possible to predict the weather conditions at the future time of the installation location of the solar power generation facility.
- FIG. 1 is a system block diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a power distribution system to which a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and a weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention are applied. It is a flowchart which shows the processing content of the correction necessity determination part in the photovoltaic power generation equipment electric power generation amount prediction system by one Embodiment of this invention, and a weather prediction system. It is a flowchart which shows the processing content of the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction
- FIG. 1 is a system block diagram showing an overall configuration of a power distribution system to which a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and a weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention are applied.
- a power distribution system to which the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment are applied includes a power distribution system 100, a customer 200, a power distribution monitoring system 300, a customer cooperation system 400, and a solar power generation facility.
- the power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 500 is configured.
- the distribution system 100 is a system that supplies power to the customer 200, and is composed of facilities such as distribution lines, transformers, and switches.
- the consumer 200 is installed with a power load device 210 that operates by electric power, a solar power generation facility 220 that receives sunlight and converts it into electric power, and an information output device 230 that displays an image and outputs sound. .
- the power load device 210 and the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 are electrically connected to the power distribution system 100.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 has a function of voltage increase suppression control that suppresses the amount of power generation when the voltage at the distribution system connection point increases. Some photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 have a function of outputting the fact that they are operating to the outside when the voltage rise suppression control is operating.
- a power distribution monitoring system 300, a customer cooperation system 400, and a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 500 are installed in a power company sales office or the like, and communicate with each facility of the power distribution system 100 and each device of the customer 200. Connected via network.
- the power distribution monitoring system 300 is a system that monitors the state of the power distribution system 100.
- the power distribution monitoring system 300 includes a power distribution system monitoring unit 310 that monitors the state of each facility of the power distribution system 100 (electrical state values such as voltage and current, switch connection state values, etc.) via a communication network, and a power distribution system.
- a distribution system state prediction unit 320 that predicts the state of the distribution system 100 at a future time point using 100 monitoring data.
- the customer cooperation system 400 is a system that monitors the state of the device of the customer 200 (such as the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 220) and distributes information to the device.
- the customer cooperation system 400 transmits information to the photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 410 that grasps the state of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 of the consumer 200 via the communication network, and the information output device 230 of the consumer 200 via the communication network.
- an information distribution unit 420 that outputs images and sounds.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 410 also manages the operation state of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 having a function of outputting the operation state of the voltage rise suppression control.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount forecast & weather prediction system 500 acquires the status information of the distribution system 100 from the power distribution monitoring system 300, and acquires the power generation amount information of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 from the customer cooperation system 400. These systems are used to predict a future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 and to predict future weather information.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 500 includes a distribution system state value management unit 510, a solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, a solar power generation facility voltage rise suppression state management unit 520, and a solar power generation.
- Facility specification management unit 525 weather condition value management unit 530, photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identification unit 550, solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560, solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570, , A correction necessity degree determination unit 580 and a weather information conversion unit 590 are provided.
- the distribution system state value management unit 510 acquires the state value of each facility of the distribution system 100 from the distribution system monitoring unit 310 of the distribution monitoring system 300, and stores and manages this as actual data. In addition, the distribution system state value management unit 510 acquires a predicted value of a state at a future time point of the distribution system 100 from the distribution system state prediction unit 320 of the distribution monitoring system 300, and stores and manages this as predicted data. The distribution system state value management unit 510 stores and manages actual data and prediction data for a plurality of time sections.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 acquires the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 from the solar power generation facility management unit 410 of the customer cooperation system 400, and stores and manages this as actual data. . Moreover, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 acquires the value calculated by the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 by correcting the actual data, and stores and manages this value as actual correction data. Further, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 acquires a predicted value of the future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 from the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560, and uses this as prediction data. As a storage management. The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 stores and manages the result data, the result correction data, and the prediction data for a plurality of time sections.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility voltage rise suppression status management unit 520 is associated with the power generation amount actual data of each time section of each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and the voltage rise If the suppression control is activated, 1 is stored and managed as voltage rise suppression status result data, -1 if not activated, and 0 if unknown.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility voltage rise suppression status management unit 520 is unknown for the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 in which the photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 410 of the customer cooperation system 400 does not manage the operation status of the voltage rise suppression control. For the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 that stores 0 and manages the operating status, 1 or -1 is stored depending on the operating status.
- the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525 stores and manages the power generation characteristics, correction necessity, interconnection points, and geographical coordinate data of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200.
- the power generation characteristics are data for associating the solar radiation intensity with the maximum power generation amount at that time, and are stored in advance by the operator when the solar power generation facility 220 is installed.
- the correction necessity level is set to a smaller value between 0 and 1 as the correction level determination unit 580 is less likely to operate the voltage increase suppression control and the power generation amount is not decreased due to the shadow. Data with a value.
- the interconnection point is data representing the facilities of the distribution system 100 to which the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 is connected, and is data that can represent a two-dimensional positional relationship between the respective solar power generation facilities 220, for example, latitude and Longitude is considered.
- the weather condition value management unit 530 acquires the predicted value of the solar radiation intensity at the future time of the customer 200 from the weather information conversion unit 590, and stores and manages it.
- the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 uses the actual correction data and the prediction data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and A calculation formula for calculating the power generation amount at a certain time section of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 by using actual correction data and prediction data of a time section older than the time section of the other photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 is well known.
- the power generation amount correlation model between the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 is determined by regression analysis. The detailed processing content of the power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 between the photovoltaic power generation facilities will be described later.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 predicts the future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220, and details of the processing will be described later with reference to FIG.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 performs the voltage rise suppression control on the actual power generation amount data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored and stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
- the power generation amount when the power generation amount is not reduced due to the shadow is estimated, and this is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 as performance correction data.
- the actual data itself is the power generation amount resulting from the fact that the voltage increase suppression control does not operate and the power generation amount is not reduced by the shadow, the same value is stored as the actual correction data. Details of the processing of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 will be described later with reference to FIG.
- the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 sets a smaller value between 0 and 1 as the degree is smaller for each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 according to the degree to which the power generation amount is reduced due to the operation and shadow of the voltage increase suppression control. It is set as correction necessity data of the equipment managed by the solar power generation equipment specification management unit 525. Details of the processing of the correction necessity determination unit 580 will be described later with reference to FIG.
- the meteorological information conversion unit 590 predicts the solar radiation intensity at the future time of the installation place of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220, and details of the processing will be described later with reference to FIG.
- FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the correction necessity determination unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to one embodiment of the present invention.
- the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 sets a smaller value between 0 and 1 as the degree is smaller for each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 according to the degree to which the power generation amount is reduced due to the operation and shadow of the voltage increase suppression control. It is set as correction necessity data of the equipment managed by the solar power generation equipment specification management unit 525.
- step S100 the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 performs initial setting.
- the correction necessity degree is set to 1 for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525.
- step S110 the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 executes setting based on the actual power generation amount value.
- step S112 the correction necessity determination unit 580 calculates the following power generation rates for all the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525, respectively.
- the power generation characteristics are obtained from the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525 to obtain the maximum power generation amount.
- all the power generation amount actual data is acquired from the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and the average value is obtained.
- the ratio of the average value to the maximum power generation amount is calculated as a power generation rate.
- the power generation rate 0.
- step S114 the correction necessity determination unit 580 updates the correction necessity for each of the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525.
- the maximum and minimum are extracted from the power generation rates of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220, and are set as Max and Min, respectively.
- the coefficient K1 calculated by the following formula (1) is calculated.
- K1 1 ⁇ (power generation rate of the solar power generation equipment 220 ⁇ Min) ⁇ (Max ⁇ Min) (1) Then, the correction necessity degree of each photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 is updated by multiplying by the coefficient K1.
- step S120 the correction necessity determination unit 580 performs setting based on the actual voltage value of the connection point.
- step S122 the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 calculates the following voltage lowering degree for all the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525.
- the facility of the distribution system 100 to which the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 is connected is obtained.
- the voltage performance data of all time sections related to the facilities of the power distribution system 100 are extracted.
- a deviation from a predetermined lower limit value of the voltage reference range is obtained, a ratio to the voltage reference range width is calculated, and an average value for all the extracted voltage record data is calculated. This is defined as a voltage reduction degree of the solar power generation facility 220.
- step S124 the correction necessity determination unit 580 updates the correction necessity for each of the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525.
- the degree of voltage reduction is set to 1. Then, the maximum and minimum are extracted from the degree of voltage reduction of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 and are set as Max and Min, respectively. And the coefficient K2 calculated by the following formula (2) is calculated.
- K2 (Voltage reduction degree of the solar power generation equipment 220 ⁇ Min) ⁇ (Max ⁇ Min) (2) Then, the correction necessity degree of each photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 is updated by multiplying by the coefficient K2.
- step S130 the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 executes setting based on the voltage rise suppression status result data.
- the correction necessity determination unit 580 calculates a voltage increase suppression rate for the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 to be processed.
- the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 refers to all the voltage suppression status record data of the solar power generation facility 220 managed by the solar power generation facility voltage suppression status management unit 520, and the voltage rise suppression status record.
- the ratio of the number of data whose data is ⁇ 1 is calculated as the voltage rise suppression control rate, and this is set as a coefficient K3.
- step S134 the correction necessity determination unit 580 updates the correction necessity of the solar power generation facility 220 by multiplying by the coefficient 3.
- step S140 the correction necessity determination unit 580 executes setting based on an input from the operator of the system. Specifically, if the operator inputs a value of the necessity for correction of the solar power generation equipment 220 to be processed, the degree of necessity for correction of the solar power generation equipment 220 managed by the solar power generation equipment specification management unit 525 To the input value.
- the power generation rate is small when the power generation amount suppression by the shadow is large in the process of step S110.
- the solar power generation equipment 220 tends to take a smaller value.
- step S120 when the voltage at the interconnection point is always low, the voltage increase suppression control is less likely to operate, so the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 with less voltage increase suppression control is smaller. There is a tendency to take a value.
- step S130 when the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 itself has detected the presence or absence of the operation
- the power generation equipment 220 is adjusted so as to take a value with a smaller correction necessity.
- the correction necessity degree can be set to be smaller as the operation of the voltage rise suppression control is less and the power generation amount is less reduced by the shadow. it can.
- FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
- FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram of processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the embodiment of the present invention.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 performs the voltage rise suppression control on the actual power generation amount data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored and stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
- the power generation amount when the power generation amount is not reduced due to the shadow is estimated, and this is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 as performance correction data.
- the actual data itself is the power generation amount resulting from the fact that the voltage increase suppression control does not operate and the power generation amount is not reduced by the shadow, the same value is stored as the actual correction data.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 extracts the solar power generation facility 220 as a correction reference.
- the following processing is performed with reference to the correction necessity data and geographical coordinate data of each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525.
- the solar power generation facility 220 to be processed is set as A.
- A is extracted as a correction reference.
- correction is necessary in the solar power generation facility 220 whose geographical distance to the solar power generation facility 220A is smaller than a predetermined threshold value. The one with the smallest degree is extracted as a correction reference.
- the extracted photovoltaic power generation facility 220 is set as B.
- the threshold regarding the geographical distance is, for example, about several tens of meters to several kilometers.
- step S210 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 executes calculation for performance correction. This process will be described with reference to FIG.
- the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 acquires the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation facility A to be processed and the extracted solar power generation facility B from the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525. Next, the generated power generation result data to be processed is set as PA. Then, the power generation amount actual data of the solar power generation facility B extracted from the same time section as the processing target power generation amount data PA is acquired from the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and this is set as PB. Next, with reference to the power generation characteristic data of the extracted solar power generation equipment B, the solar radiation intensity associated with the generated power generation result data PB of the solar power generation equipment B is obtained.
- step S220 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 executes storage of actual result correction. That is, with reference to the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation facility A to be processed, the power generation amount PA ′ associated with the calculated solar radiation intensity is obtained, and this is the actual power generation amount of the solar power generation facility A to be processed.
- the result correction data PA ′ corresponding to the data PA is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
- the actual correction data of the solar power generation facility A to be processed can be estimated from the actual power generation amount data of the solar power generation facility B as the correction reference without measuring the solar radiation intensity.
- step S230 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 repeats the processing related to the power generation amount actual data. That is, the processes of step S210 and step S220 are performed for all the power generation amount result data PA of the processing target solar power generation facility A stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
- step S240 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 repeats the processing related to the solar power generation facility 220. That is, the processes in steps S200 to S220 are performed for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 whose performance data is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
- the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 uses the actual correction data and the prediction data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and A calculation formula for calculating the power generation amount at a certain time section of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 using the actual correction data and the prediction data of the time section older than the time section of the other photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 is obtained by a known regression analysis.
- the power generation amount correlation model between the solar power generation facilities 220 is determined.
- the oldest time section is set to 1, and a different time section is expressed by incrementing with the passage of time.
- the power generation amount at the time section T of the solar power generation facility X is set to P (X, T).
- the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 subject to model identification is A and the time section is S.
- the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 determines the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model as Equation (3).
- P (A, S) ⁇ (A, 0) + ⁇ ⁇ (A, X, I) ⁇ P (X, SI) ⁇ (3)
- the first ⁇ means taking the sum for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities X managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525
- the second ⁇ means taking the sum for I.
- I moves from 1 to a predetermined value Imax.
- ⁇ (A, 0) represents a constant determined by A
- ⁇ (A, X, I) represents a constant determined by A and X.
- the sample data used for the regression analysis of Equation (3) includes the time section S of each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 and the actual power generation amount correction up to S-Jmax. Use data. Jmax is determined in advance such that Jmax ⁇ Imax.
- FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 predicts the future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220.
- step S300 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 performs initial setting. Specifically, the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 to be predicted is A, and the future time section of the prediction target is N.
- step S310 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 extracts a time section of the latest performance correction data. That is, the time section of the latest performance correction data stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 is referred to, and this is set as M.
- step S320 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 obtains the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model of the time section M. That is, the solar power generation facility A and the time section M of the model identification target are passed to the inter-photovoltaic power generation amount correlation model identification unit 550, and the model expression of the model identification result is acquired.
- the acquired model formula is defined as the following formula (4).
- P (A, M) ⁇ (A, 0) + ⁇ ⁇ (A, X, I) ⁇ P (X, MI) ⁇ (4)
- the first ⁇ means taking the sum for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220X managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525
- the second ⁇ means taking the sum for I.
- I moves from 1 to a predetermined value Imax.
- ⁇ (A, 0) represents a constant determined by A
- ⁇ (A, X, I) represents a constant determined by A and X.
- step S330 the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 predicts the power generation amount of the time section M + 1. That is, P (A, M) is calculated using an expression in which M is rewritten as M + 1 in Expression (4), and this is used as a predicted value of the power generation amount at the time section M + 1 of the solar power generation equipment 220A. Stored in the power generation amount management unit 515.
- the prediction data predicted by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 and stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 is based on the actual power generation amount data, and the voltage rise This excludes the effects of reduced power generation due to suppression control and shadows. Therefore, it is possible to predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility with high accuracy by removing the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system.
- FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the weather information conversion unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
- the meteorological information conversion unit 590 predicts the solar radiation intensity at the future time of the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220.
- step S400 the weather information conversion unit 590 performs initial setting.
- the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 to be predicted is A
- the future time section of the prediction target is N.
- step S410 the weather information conversion unit 590 predicts the power generation amount. That is, the meteorological information conversion unit 590 passes the photovoltaic power generation facility 220A to be predicted and the time section N to the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560, and starts the prediction of the power generation amount. Then, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 stores the target prediction data in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515. Furthermore, the target power generation amount prediction value is acquired from the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
- step S420 the meteorological information conversion unit 590 executes conversion to solar radiation intensity. That is, the meteorological information conversion unit 590 acquires the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation facility 220A from the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525, and obtains the solar radiation intensity corresponding to the predicted power generation amount. Then, the obtained solar radiation intensity is stored in the weather condition value management unit 530 as the solar radiation intensity at the time section M of the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220A.
- the weather information conversion unit 590 further distributes the predicted solar radiation intensity information to the customer 200 and outputs it to the information output device 230 via the information distribution unit 420 of the customer cooperation system 400. Good.
- the prediction data predicted by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 is based on the actual power generation amount data, and excludes the effects of voltage increase suppression control and power generation amount decrease due to shadows. It is. Therefore, the weather information conversion unit 590 can also predict the solar radiation intensity with high accuracy. As described above, the weather can be predicted with high accuracy based on the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility.
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Abstract
Disclosed is a system for predicting the output from solar electric generating facilities capable of accurately predicting the output from the solar electric generating facilities by removing influence of voltage distribution of a distribution system. In a system (500) for predicting the output from solar electric generating facilities and for predicting weather, a correcting unit (570) for correcting the output from the solar electric generating facilities determines the output from the solar electric generating facilities without influences such as inhibitory control of voltage rise and shadows that cause a reduction in the output as an actual output correction value by removing the influences from the actual past output from the solar electric generating facilities (220). An identifying unit (550) for identifying correlational models of the output among the solar electric generating facilities identifies correlational models among correction values of the actual past output from the plurality of solar electric generating facilities (220). A predicting unit (560) for predicting the output from the solar electric generating facilities predicts the future output from the solar electric generating facilities (220) using the correlational models. A weather-information converting unit (590) converts the predicted value of the output into intensity of solar radiation.
Description
本発明は、太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム,気象予測システム及び太陽光発電設備発電量予測方法に関する。
The present invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system, a weather prediction system, and a solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction method.
地球環境負荷低減に向けて太陽光発電設備の導入拡大が見込まれるが、太陽光発電設備の電力系統への連系拡大において、その出力変動が電力系統に及ぼす影響が懸念されている。この電力系統への影響緩和のための制御を高精度に行うには、太陽光発電設備の発電量を地理的、時間的に高分解能で予測することが必要である。
Although the introduction and expansion of solar power generation equipment is expected to reduce the global environmental load, there is concern about the impact of output fluctuations on the power system in the expansion of interconnection of solar power generation equipment to the power system. In order to perform control for mitigating the influence on the power system with high accuracy, it is necessary to predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility with high resolution in terms of geography and time.
太陽光発電設備の発電量を予測する方法として、複数地点に設置された太陽光発電システムの発電量の情報を蓄積し、過去の発電量をもとに、予測対象の太陽光発電設備の時刻帯別の発電量を予測するものが知られている(例えば、特許文献1参照)。この方法では、予測対象の発電量を目的関数とし、予測対象およびその他の太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量を説明変数として、過去実績データにより回帰分析を行って、発電量予測式を導出する。
As a method of predicting the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility, information on the power generation amount of the solar power generation systems installed at multiple points is accumulated, and based on the past power generation amount, the time of the target solar power generation facility is predicted. One that predicts the power generation amount by band is known (for example, see Patent Document 1). In this method, the power generation amount to be predicted is an objective function, the past power generation amounts of the prediction target and other solar power generation facilities are used as explanatory variables, and regression analysis is performed on past performance data to derive a power generation amount prediction formula. .
予測対象の太陽光発電設備の発電量は、日射強度などの気象状況に強く影響を受けるが、特許文献1の方法によれば、気象予測情報を用いずに、太陽光発電設備の発電量を予測することができる。
The power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be predicted is strongly influenced by weather conditions such as solar radiation intensity. However, according to the method of Patent Document 1, the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility is determined without using the weather prediction information. Can be predicted.
しかしながら、太陽光発電設備の発電量は、日射強度などの気象状況のみでなく、連系している配電系統の電圧状況にも影響を受ける。太陽光発電設備は、連系点の電圧が上昇すると、配電系統の電圧を適正範囲に維持することを目的として、発電を抑制する制御を行うことがあるためである。配電系統の電圧分布は、太陽光発電設備の発電状況のほか需要家の負荷の状況によっても変化する。
However, the amount of power generated by solar power generation facilities is affected not only by weather conditions such as solar radiation intensity, but also by the voltage conditions of the interconnected distribution system. This is because the photovoltaic power generation facility may perform control to suppress power generation for the purpose of maintaining the voltage of the distribution system in an appropriate range when the voltage at the interconnection point increases. The voltage distribution of the distribution system varies depending on the power generation status of the photovoltaic power generation equipment and the load status of the customer.
従って、特許文献1記載の方法において、過去実績データにより回帰分析を行って、発電量予測式を導出する際に、過去実績データに、配電系統の電圧分布の影響によって発電量が抑制されているものがある場合、将来時点では、電圧分布が変化し得るので、発電量が必ずしも同じようには抑制されない可能性があり、このようなケースにおいて、予測誤差が生じることになる。
Therefore, in the method described in Patent Document 1, when the regression analysis is performed using the past performance data and the power generation amount prediction formula is derived, the power generation amount is suppressed in the past performance data due to the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system. If there is something, the voltage distribution may change at a future point in time, so the power generation amount may not necessarily be suppressed in the same way. In such a case, a prediction error occurs.
本発明の第1の目的は、配電系統の電圧分布の影響を除去して、太陽光発電設備の発電量を高精度に予測可能な太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び予測方法を提供することにある。
A first object of the present invention is to provide a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and a prediction method capable of accurately predicting the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility by removing the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system. It is in.
また、配電系統の電圧分布の影響を除去することができれば、太陽光発電設備の発電量を、逆に気象状況(特に日射強度)に高精度に変換することが期待される。
Also, if the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system can be removed, it is expected that the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility will be converted to weather conditions (especially solar radiation intensity) with high accuracy.
そこで、本発明の第2の目的は、太陽光発電設備の発電量をもとに高精度に気象を予測可能な気象予測システムを提供することにある。
Therefore, a second object of the present invention is to provide a weather prediction system capable of predicting weather with high accuracy based on the amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility.
(1)上記第1の目的を達成するために、本発明は、複数の太陽光発電設備について、過去の発電量の実績データを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測システムであって、各太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量の実績データを、配電系統連系点の電圧上昇抑制のための発電量抑制や影等による発電量低下の影響を除去して、それらの影響がなかった場合の発電量の補正値を求める太陽光発電設備発電量補正部と、該太陽光発電設備発電量補正部によって求められた複数の太陽光発電設備の前記発電量の補正値の間の相関モデルを同定する太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部と、該太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部によって同定された前記相関モデルを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測部を備えるようにしたものである。
(1) In order to achieve the first object, the present invention predicts the power generation amount of each solar power generation facility at a future time by using the past power generation result data for a plurality of solar power generation facilities. Power generation amount prediction system for solar power generation equipment, and the past power generation result data of each solar power generation equipment is used to reduce the power generation amount due to power generation suppression and shadows to suppress voltage increase at the distribution system connection point The solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit for obtaining the power generation amount correction value when there is no such effect, and a plurality of solar power generation units obtained by the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit Using the correlation model identification unit for identifying the correlation between the correction values of the generation amount of the facility between the photovoltaic generation facilities and the correlation model identified by the correlation model identification unit for the generation amount correlation between the photovoltaic generation facilities Of each solar power generation facility It is obtained so as to comprise a PV system power generation amount prediction unit for predicting a power generation amount of coming time.
かかる構成により、配電系統の電圧分布の影響を除去して、太陽光発電設備の発電量を高精度に予測可能となる。
This configuration eliminates the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system and makes it possible to predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility with high accuracy.
(2)上記(1)において、好ましくは、各太陽光発電設備について、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作や影によって発電量が低下する程度に応じて、当該設備の補正必要度データとして設定する補正必要度判定部を備え、前記太陽光発電設備発電量補正部は、前記補正必要度判定部により設定された補正必要度を用いて、発電量の補正値を求めるようにしたものである。
(2) In the above (1), preferably, for each photovoltaic power generation facility, correction needs to be set as correction necessity degree data for the facility according to the degree to which the amount of power generation is reduced due to the operation or shadow of the voltage increase suppression control A degree determination unit, and the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit obtains a power generation amount correction value using the correction necessity degree set by the correction necessity degree determination unit.
(3)上記(2)において、好ましくは、前記補正必要度判定部は、全ての太陽光発電設備の発電率から算出された係数K1を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧低め度から算出された係数K2を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧上昇抑制率から算出された係数K3を乗じた補正必要度の少なくともいずれかの補正必要度を前記設備の補正必要度データとして設定するようにしたものである。
(3) In the above (2), preferably, the correction necessity determination unit is required to correct the coefficient K1 calculated from the power generation rates of all the solar power generation facilities, and the voltages of all the solar power generation facilities. At least one of the necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K2 calculated from the degree of lowering and the degree of necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K3 calculated from the voltage rise suppression rate of all photovoltaic power generation facilities This is set as correction necessity data.
(4)上記第2の目的を達成するために、本発明は、複数の太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量の実績データを、配電系統連系点の電圧上昇抑制のための発電量抑制や影等による発電量低下の影響を除去して、それらの影響がなかった場合の発電量の補正値を求める太陽光発電設備発電量補正部と、該太陽光発電設備発電量補正部によって求められた複数の太陽光発電設備の前記発電量の補正値の間の相関モデルを同定する太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部と、該太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部によって同定された前記相関モデルを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測部と、該太陽光発電設備発電量予測部によって予測された前記将来時点の発電量の予測値を日射強度に変換する気象情報変換部を備えるようにしたものである。
(4) In order to achieve the second object described above, the present invention is based on the past power generation data of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities. It is obtained by a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation correction unit that eliminates the effects of power generation reduction due to shadows, etc., and obtains a correction value of the power generation amount when there is no such influence, and the solar power generation facility power generation correction unit. The power generation amount correlation model identifying unit for identifying the correlation between the correction values of the power generation amounts of the plurality of solar power generation facilities, and the power generation amount correlation model identifying unit for the solar power generation facilities In addition, using the correlation model, a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit that predicts a future power generation amount of each solar power generation facility, and the future power generation predicted by the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit Convert predicted amount of solar radiation to solar radiation intensity That is obtained as provided with weather information conversion unit.
かかる構成により、太陽光発電設備の発電量をもとに高精度に気象を予測可能となる。
Such a configuration makes it possible to predict the weather with high accuracy based on the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility.
(5)上記(4)において、好ましくは、各太陽光発電設備について、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作や影によって発電量が低下する程度に応じて、当該設備の補正必要度データとして設定する補正必要度判定部を備え、前記太陽光発電設備発電量補正部は、前記補正必要度判定部により設定された補正必要度を用いて、発電量の補正値を求めるようにしたものである。
(5) In the above (4), preferably, for each photovoltaic power generation facility, it is necessary to make corrections as correction necessity data for the facility according to the degree to which the amount of power generation is reduced due to the operation or shadow of voltage increase suppression control. A degree determination unit, and the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit obtains a power generation amount correction value using the correction necessity degree set by the correction necessity degree determination unit.
(6)上記(5)において、好ましくは、前記補正必要度判定部は、全ての太陽光発電設備の発電率から算出された係数K1を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧低め度から算出された係数K2を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧上昇抑制率から算出された係数K3を乗じた補正必要度の少なくともいずれかの補正必要度を前記設備の補正必要度データとして設定するようにしたものである。
(6) In the above (5), preferably, the correction necessity degree determining unit is required to correct the coefficient K1 calculated from the power generation rates of all the solar power generation facilities, and the voltages of all the solar power generation facilities. At least one of the necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K2 calculated from the degree of lowering and the degree of necessity of correction multiplied by the coefficient K3 calculated from the voltage rise suppression rate of all photovoltaic power generation facilities This is set as correction necessity data.
(7)また、上記目的を達成するために、本発明は、複数の太陽光発電設備について、過去の発電量の実績データを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測方法であって、各太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量の実績データを、発電量低下の影響を除去して、それらの影響がなかった場合の発電量の補正値を求め、該求められた複数の太陽光発電設備の前記発電量の補正値の間の相関モデルを同定し、該同定された前記相関モデルを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測するようにしたものである。
かかる方法により、配電系統の電圧分布の影響を除去して、太陽光発電設備の発電量を高精度に予測可能となる。
(7) Moreover, in order to achieve the said objective, this invention estimates the electric power generation amount of the future time of each solar power generation facility using the historical data of the past power generation amount about several solar power generation facilities. A method for predicting the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation equipment, and correcting the amount of power generated when there is no influence from the past data on the amount of power generated by each photovoltaic power generation facility after removing the effects of a decrease in power generation. And identifying a correlation model between the calculated power generation amount correction values of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities, and using the identified correlation model, The amount is predicted.
With this method, the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system is removed, and the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility can be predicted with high accuracy.
かかる方法により、配電系統の電圧分布の影響を除去して、太陽光発電設備の発電量を高精度に予測可能となる。
(7) Moreover, in order to achieve the said objective, this invention estimates the electric power generation amount of the future time of each solar power generation facility using the historical data of the past power generation amount about several solar power generation facilities. A method for predicting the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation equipment, and correcting the amount of power generated when there is no influence from the past data on the amount of power generated by each photovoltaic power generation facility after removing the effects of a decrease in power generation. And identifying a correlation model between the calculated power generation amount correction values of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities, and using the identified correlation model, The amount is predicted.
With this method, the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system is removed, and the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility can be predicted with high accuracy.
本発明によれば、需要家に設置される太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を、気象情報を用いずに、高精度に予測することが可能になる。また、当該太陽光発電設備の設置場所の当該将来時点の気象状況を予測することが可能になる。
ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, it becomes possible to estimate the electric power generation amount in the future of the solar power generation installation installed in a consumer with high precision, without using weather information. It is also possible to predict the weather conditions at the future time of the installation location of the solar power generation facility.
ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, it becomes possible to estimate the electric power generation amount in the future of the solar power generation installation installed in a consumer with high precision, without using weather information. It is also possible to predict the weather conditions at the future time of the installation location of the solar power generation facility.
以下、図1~図6を用いて、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムを適用した配電システムの構成について説明する。
Hereinafter, the configuration of a power distribution system to which a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and a weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention are applied will be described with reference to FIGS.
最初に、図1を用いて、本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムを適用した配電システムの全体構成について説明する。
First, the overall configuration of a power distribution system to which the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment are applied will be described with reference to FIG.
図1は、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムを適用した配電システムの全体構成を示すシステムブロック図である。
FIG. 1 is a system block diagram showing an overall configuration of a power distribution system to which a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and a weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention are applied.
本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムを適用した配電システムは、配電系統100と、需要家200と、配電監視システム300と、需要家連携システム400と、太陽光発電設備発電量予測&気象予測システム500とで構成されている。
A power distribution system to which the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment are applied includes a power distribution system 100, a customer 200, a power distribution monitoring system 300, a customer cooperation system 400, and a solar power generation facility. The power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 500 is configured.
配電系統100は、電力を需要家200に供給するシステムであり、配電線、変圧器、開閉器などの設備で構成される。
The distribution system 100 is a system that supplies power to the customer 200, and is composed of facilities such as distribution lines, transformers, and switches.
需要家200には、電力により動作する電力負荷機器210と、太陽光を受けて電力に変換する太陽光発電設備220と、画像を表示したり音声を出力する情報出力機器230とが設置される。電力負荷機器210と太陽光発電設備220は、配電系統100と電気的に接続している。太陽光発電設備220は、配電系統連系点の電圧上昇時に発電量を抑制する、電圧上昇抑制制御の機能を備える。太陽光発電設備220によっては、電圧上昇抑制制御が作動している場合に、作動していることを外部に出力する機能を備えているものもある。
The consumer 200 is installed with a power load device 210 that operates by electric power, a solar power generation facility 220 that receives sunlight and converts it into electric power, and an information output device 230 that displays an image and outputs sound. . The power load device 210 and the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 are electrically connected to the power distribution system 100. The photovoltaic power generation facility 220 has a function of voltage increase suppression control that suppresses the amount of power generation when the voltage at the distribution system connection point increases. Some photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 have a function of outputting the fact that they are operating to the outside when the voltage rise suppression control is operating.
配電監視システム300と需要家連携システム400と太陽光発電設備発電量予測&気象予測システム500は、電力会社の営業所等に設置され、配電系統100の各設備や需要家200の各機器と通信ネットワークで接続される。
A power distribution monitoring system 300, a customer cooperation system 400, and a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 500 are installed in a power company sales office or the like, and communicate with each facility of the power distribution system 100 and each device of the customer 200. Connected via network.
配電監視システム300は、配電系統100の状態を監視するシステムである。配電監視システム300は、通信ネットワークを介して配電系統100の各設備の状態(電圧や電流等の電気的状態値、開閉器の接続状態値など)を監視する配電系統監視部310と、配電系統100の監視データを用いて将来時点の配電系統100の状態を予測する配電系統状態予測部320とを備える。
The power distribution monitoring system 300 is a system that monitors the state of the power distribution system 100. The power distribution monitoring system 300 includes a power distribution system monitoring unit 310 that monitors the state of each facility of the power distribution system 100 (electrical state values such as voltage and current, switch connection state values, etc.) via a communication network, and a power distribution system. A distribution system state prediction unit 320 that predicts the state of the distribution system 100 at a future time point using 100 monitoring data.
需要家連携システム400は、需要家200の機器の状態(太陽光発電設備220の発電量など)を監視したり、機器に情報を配信したりするシステムである。需要家連携システム400は、通信ネットワークを介して需要家200の太陽光発電設備220の状態を把握する太陽光発電設備管理部410と、通信ネットワークを介して需要家200の情報出力機器230に情報を配信して画像や音声を出力する情報配信部420とを備える。太陽光発電設備管理部410は、電圧上昇抑制制御の作動状況を出力する機能を備える太陽光発電設備220については、その作動状況も管理する。
The customer cooperation system 400 is a system that monitors the state of the device of the customer 200 (such as the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility 220) and distributes information to the device. The customer cooperation system 400 transmits information to the photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 410 that grasps the state of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 of the consumer 200 via the communication network, and the information output device 230 of the consumer 200 via the communication network. And an information distribution unit 420 that outputs images and sounds. The photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 410 also manages the operation state of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 having a function of outputting the operation state of the voltage rise suppression control.
太陽光発電設備発電量予測&気象予測システム500は、配電監視システム300から配電系統100の状態情報を取得し、需要家連携システム400から需要家200の太陽光発電設備220の発電量情報を取得し、それらを用いて、需要家200の太陽光発電設備220の将来時点の発電量を予測し、また、将来時点の気象情報を予測するシステムである。太陽光発電設備発電量予測&気象予測システム500は、配電系統状態値管理部510と、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515と、太陽光発電設備電圧上昇抑制状況管理部520と、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525と、気象状態値管理部530と、太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550と、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560と、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570と、補正必要度判定部580と、気象情報変換部590とを備える。
The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount forecast & weather prediction system 500 acquires the status information of the distribution system 100 from the power distribution monitoring system 300, and acquires the power generation amount information of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 from the customer cooperation system 400. These systems are used to predict a future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 and to predict future weather information. The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 500 includes a distribution system state value management unit 510, a solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, a solar power generation facility voltage rise suppression state management unit 520, and a solar power generation. Facility specification management unit 525, weather condition value management unit 530, photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identification unit 550, solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560, solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570, , A correction necessity degree determination unit 580 and a weather information conversion unit 590 are provided.
配電系統状態値管理部510は、配電監視システム300の配電系統監視部310から、配電系統100の各設備の状態値を取得し、これを実績データとして保管管理する。また、配電系統状態値管理部510は、配電監視システム300の配電系統状態予測部320から、配電系統100の将来時点の状態の予測値を取得し、これを予測データとして保管管理する。配電系統状態値管理部510は、実績データや予測データを、複数の時刻断面について保管管理される。
The distribution system state value management unit 510 acquires the state value of each facility of the distribution system 100 from the distribution system monitoring unit 310 of the distribution monitoring system 300, and stores and manages this as actual data. In addition, the distribution system state value management unit 510 acquires a predicted value of a state at a future time point of the distribution system 100 from the distribution system state prediction unit 320 of the distribution monitoring system 300, and stores and manages this as predicted data. The distribution system state value management unit 510 stores and manages actual data and prediction data for a plurality of time sections.
太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515は、需要家連携システム400の太陽光発電設備管理部410から、需要家200の太陽光発電設備220の発電量を取得し、これを実績データとして保管管理する。また、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515は、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570が、それら実績データに補正をかけて算出した値を取得し、これを実績補正データとして保管管理する。さらに、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515は、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560から、需要家200の太陽光発電設備220の将来時点の発電量の予測値を取得し、これを予測データとして保管管理する。太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515は、実績データ、実績補正データ、予測データを、複数の時刻断面について保管管理する。
The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 acquires the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 from the solar power generation facility management unit 410 of the customer cooperation system 400, and stores and manages this as actual data. . Moreover, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 acquires the value calculated by the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 by correcting the actual data, and stores and manages this value as actual correction data. Further, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 acquires a predicted value of the future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200 from the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560, and uses this as prediction data. As a storage management. The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 stores and manages the result data, the result correction data, and the prediction data for a plurality of time sections.
太陽光発電設備電圧上昇抑制状況管理部520は、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515が管理する、各太陽光発電設備220の各時刻断面の発電量実績データに対応付けて、それが電圧上昇抑制制御が作動した結果であれば1を、作動していない結果であれば-1を、不明の場合には0を、電圧上昇抑制状況実績データとして保管管理する。太陽光発電設備電圧上昇抑制状況管理部520は、需要家連携システム400の太陽光発電設備管理部410が、電圧上昇抑制制御の作動状況を管理していない太陽光発電設備220については、不明として0を格納し、作動状況を管理している太陽光発電設備220については、作動状況に応じて1か-1を格納する。
The photovoltaic power generation facility voltage rise suppression status management unit 520 is associated with the power generation amount actual data of each time section of each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and the voltage rise If the suppression control is activated, 1 is stored and managed as voltage rise suppression status result data, -1 if not activated, and 0 if unknown. The photovoltaic power generation facility voltage rise suppression status management unit 520 is unknown for the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 in which the photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 410 of the customer cooperation system 400 does not manage the operation status of the voltage rise suppression control. For the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 that stores 0 and manages the operating status, 1 or -1 is stored depending on the operating status.
太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525は、需要家200の太陽光発電設備220の発電特性、補正必要度、連系点、地理的座標のデータを保管管理する。発電特性は、日射強度にそのときの最大発電量を対応付けるデータであり、太陽光発電設備220の設置時に運用者によりあらかじめ格納される。補正必要度は、補正必要度判定部580が、電圧上昇抑制制御が動作することが少なく、かつ、影による発電量低下となることが少ないほど、小さい値を設定し、0から1の間の値を持つデータである。連系点は、太陽光発電設備220が接続する配電系統100の設備を示すデータである、各太陽光発電設備220の間の2次元上の位置関係を表現できるデータであり、例えば、緯度と経度が考えられる。
The solar power generation facility specification management unit 525 stores and manages the power generation characteristics, correction necessity, interconnection points, and geographical coordinate data of the solar power generation facility 220 of the customer 200. The power generation characteristics are data for associating the solar radiation intensity with the maximum power generation amount at that time, and are stored in advance by the operator when the solar power generation facility 220 is installed. The correction necessity level is set to a smaller value between 0 and 1 as the correction level determination unit 580 is less likely to operate the voltage increase suppression control and the power generation amount is not decreased due to the shadow. Data with a value. The interconnection point is data representing the facilities of the distribution system 100 to which the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 is connected, and is data that can represent a two-dimensional positional relationship between the respective solar power generation facilities 220, for example, latitude and Longitude is considered.
気象状態値管理部530は、気象情報変換部590から、需要家200の将来時点の日射強度の予測値を取得し、これを保管管理する。
The weather condition value management unit 530 acquires the predicted value of the solar radiation intensity at the future time of the customer 200 from the weather information conversion unit 590, and stores and manages it.
太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550は、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納されている各太陽光発電設備220の各時刻断面の実績補正データと予測データを用いて、各太陽光発電設備220のある時刻断面の発電量を、他の太陽光発電設備220の前記時刻断面より古い時刻断面の実績補正データや予測データを用いて計算する計算式を、良く知られている回帰分析により太陽光発電設備220の間の発電量相関モデルとして決定する。太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550の詳細な処理内容については、後述する。
The inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 uses the actual correction data and the prediction data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and A calculation formula for calculating the power generation amount at a certain time section of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 by using actual correction data and prediction data of a time section older than the time section of the other photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 is well known. The power generation amount correlation model between the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 is determined by regression analysis. The detailed processing content of the power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 between the photovoltaic power generation facilities will be described later.
太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、太陽光発電設備220の将来時点の発電量を予測するものであり、その処理の詳細について、図5を用いて後述する。
The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 predicts the future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220, and details of the processing will be described later with reference to FIG.
太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納保管されている各太陽光発電設備220の各時刻断面の発電量の実績データについて、電圧上昇抑制制御が動作せず、かつ、影による発電量低下がなかった場合の発電量を推定し、これを実績補正データとして、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納する。実績データ自体が、電圧上昇抑制制御が動作せず、かつ、影による発電量低下がなかった結果の発電量であった場合には、同じ値が実績補正データとして格納される。太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570の処理の詳細について、図3を用いて後述する。
The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 performs the voltage rise suppression control on the actual power generation amount data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored and stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515. The power generation amount when the power generation amount is not reduced due to the shadow is estimated, and this is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 as performance correction data. When the actual data itself is the power generation amount resulting from the fact that the voltage increase suppression control does not operate and the power generation amount is not reduced by the shadow, the same value is stored as the actual correction data. Details of the processing of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 will be described later with reference to FIG.
補正必要度判定部580は、各太陽光発電設備220について、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作や影によって発電量が低下する程度に応じて、程度が少ないほど、小さい値を0から1の間で、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する当該設備の補正必要度データとして設定する。補正必要度判定部580の処理の詳細について、図2を用いて後述する。
The correction necessity degree determination unit 580 sets a smaller value between 0 and 1 as the degree is smaller for each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 according to the degree to which the power generation amount is reduced due to the operation and shadow of the voltage increase suppression control. It is set as correction necessity data of the equipment managed by the solar power generation equipment specification management unit 525. Details of the processing of the correction necessity determination unit 580 will be described later with reference to FIG.
気象情報変換部590は、太陽光発電設備220の設置場所の将来時点の日射強度を予測するものであり、その処理の詳細について、図6を用いて後述する。
The meteorological information conversion unit 590 predicts the solar radiation intensity at the future time of the installation place of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220, and details of the processing will be described later with reference to FIG.
次に、図2を用いて、本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける補正必要度判定部580の処理内容について説明する。
Next, processing contents of the correction necessity determination unit 580 in the photovoltaic power generation power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.
図2は、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける補正必要度判定部の処理内容を示すフローチャートである。
FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the correction necessity determination unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to one embodiment of the present invention.
補正必要度判定部580は、各太陽光発電設備220について、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作や影によって発電量が低下する程度に応じて、程度が少ないほど、小さい値を0から1の間で、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する当該設備の補正必要度データとして設定する。
The correction necessity degree determination unit 580 sets a smaller value between 0 and 1 as the degree is smaller for each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 according to the degree to which the power generation amount is reduced due to the operation and shadow of the voltage increase suppression control. It is set as correction necessity data of the equipment managed by the solar power generation equipment specification management unit 525.
最初に、ステップS100において、補正必要度判定部580は、初期設定を実行する。初期設定においては、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する全ての太陽光発電設備220について、補正必要度を1に設定する。
First, in step S100, the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 performs initial setting. In the initial setting, the correction necessity degree is set to 1 for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525.
次に、ステップS110において、補正必要度判定部580は、発電量実績値に基づく設定を実行する。
Next, in step S110, the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 executes setting based on the actual power generation amount value.
すなわち、ステップS112において、補正必要度判定部580は、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する全ての太陽光発電設備220について、それぞれ下記の発電率を計算する。
That is, in step S112, the correction necessity determination unit 580 calculates the following power generation rates for all the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525, respectively.
具体的には、まず、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525から発電特性を取得して最大発電量を求める。次に、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515からその発電量実績データを全て取得してその平均値を求める。そして、前記最大発電量に対するこの平均値の比を、発電率として計算する。なお、発電量実績データが事前に定めた個数以上ない場合には、発電率=0とする。
Specifically, first, the power generation characteristics are obtained from the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525 to obtain the maximum power generation amount. Next, all the power generation amount actual data is acquired from the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and the average value is obtained. Then, the ratio of the average value to the maximum power generation amount is calculated as a power generation rate. In addition, when there are no power generation amount results data more than the predetermined number, the power generation rate = 0.
次に、ステップS114において、補正必要度判定部580は、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する全ての太陽光発電設備220について、それぞれ補正必要度を更新する。
Next, in step S114, the correction necessity determination unit 580 updates the correction necessity for each of the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525.
具体的には、全ての太陽光発電設備220の発電率のうち、最大と最小を抽出し、それぞれMaxとMinとおく。そして、下記の式(1)で計算される係数K1を算出する。
Specifically, the maximum and minimum are extracted from the power generation rates of all the photovoltaicpower generation facilities 220, and are set as Max and Min, respectively. And the coefficient K1 calculated by the following formula (1) is calculated.
Specifically, the maximum and minimum are extracted from the power generation rates of all the photovoltaic
K1=1-(当該太陽光発電設備220の発電率-Min)÷(Max-Min) …(1)
その上で、各太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度を、係数K1を乗じて更新する。 K1 = 1− (power generation rate of the solarpower generation equipment 220−Min) ÷ (Max−Min) (1)
Then, the correction necessity degree of each photovoltaicpower generation equipment 220 is updated by multiplying by the coefficient K1.
その上で、各太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度を、係数K1を乗じて更新する。 K1 = 1− (power generation rate of the solar
Then, the correction necessity degree of each photovoltaic
次に、ステップS120において、補正必要度判定部580は、連系点の電圧実績値に基づく設定を実行する。
Next, in step S120, the correction necessity determination unit 580 performs setting based on the actual voltage value of the connection point.
すなわち、ステップS122において、補正必要度判定部580は、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する全ての太陽光発電設備220について、それぞれ下記の電圧低め度を計算する。
That is, in step S122, the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 calculates the following voltage lowering degree for all the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525.
具体的には、まず、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する連系点データを参照して、当該太陽光発電設備220が接続する配電系統100の設備を求める。次に、配電系統100状態管理部が管理する実績データを参照して、前記配電系統100の設備に関する全ての時刻断面の電圧実績データを抽出する。抽出した各電圧実績データについて、事前に定めた電圧基準範囲の下限値からの偏差を求め、それの電圧基準範囲幅に対する比を計算し、抽出した全ての電圧実績データに関する平均値を計算する。これを、当該太陽光発電設備220の電圧低め度とする。
Specifically, first, with reference to interconnection point data managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525, the facility of the distribution system 100 to which the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 is connected is obtained. Next, with reference to the performance data managed by the power distribution system 100 state management unit, the voltage performance data of all time sections related to the facilities of the power distribution system 100 are extracted. For each extracted voltage record data, a deviation from a predetermined lower limit value of the voltage reference range is obtained, a ratio to the voltage reference range width is calculated, and an average value for all the extracted voltage record data is calculated. This is defined as a voltage reduction degree of the solar power generation facility 220.
次に、ステップS124において、補正必要度判定部580は、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する全ての太陽光発電設備220について、それぞれ補正必要度を更新する。
Next, in step S124, the correction necessity determination unit 580 updates the correction necessity for each of the solar power generation facilities 220 managed by the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525.
具体的には、電圧実績データが事前に定めた個数以上ない場合には、電圧低め度=1とする。そして、全ての太陽光発電設備220の電圧低め度のうち、最大と最小を抽出し、それぞれMaxとMinとおく。そして、下記の式(2)で計算される係数K2を算出する。
Specifically, when there are not more than a predetermined number of voltage record data, the degree of voltage reduction is set to 1. Then, the maximum and minimum are extracted from the degree of voltage reduction of all the photovoltaicpower generation facilities 220 and are set as Max and Min, respectively. And the coefficient K2 calculated by the following formula (2) is calculated.
Specifically, when there are not more than a predetermined number of voltage record data, the degree of voltage reduction is set to 1. Then, the maximum and minimum are extracted from the degree of voltage reduction of all the photovoltaic
K2=(当該太陽光発電設備220の電圧低め度-Min)÷(Max-Min) …(2)
その上で、各太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度を、係数K2を乗じて更新する。 K2 = (Voltage reduction degree of the solarpower generation equipment 220−Min) ÷ (Max−Min) (2)
Then, the correction necessity degree of each photovoltaicpower generation equipment 220 is updated by multiplying by the coefficient K2.
その上で、各太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度を、係数K2を乗じて更新する。 K2 = (Voltage reduction degree of the solar
Then, the correction necessity degree of each photovoltaic
次に、ステップS130において、補正必要度判定部580は、電圧上昇抑制状況実績データに基づく設定を実行する。
Next, in step S130, the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 executes setting based on the voltage rise suppression status result data.
具体的には、ステップS132において、補正必要度判定部580は、処理対象の太陽光発電設備220について、電圧上昇抑制率を算出する。具体的には、補正必要度判定部580は、太陽光発電設備電圧抑制状況管理部520が管理する、当該太陽光発電設備220の全ての電圧抑制状況実績データを参照し、電圧上昇抑制状況実績データが-1であるデータ数の割合を電圧上昇抑制制御率として計算し、これを係数K3とする。
Specifically, in step S132, the correction necessity determination unit 580 calculates a voltage increase suppression rate for the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 to be processed. Specifically, the correction necessity degree determination unit 580 refers to all the voltage suppression status record data of the solar power generation facility 220 managed by the solar power generation facility voltage suppression status management unit 520, and the voltage rise suppression status record. The ratio of the number of data whose data is −1 is calculated as the voltage rise suppression control rate, and this is set as a coefficient K3.
ステップS134において、補正必要度判定部580は、当該太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度を、係数3を乗じて更新する。
In step S134, the correction necessity determination unit 580 updates the correction necessity of the solar power generation facility 220 by multiplying by the coefficient 3.
最後に、ステップS140において、補正必要度判定部580は、本システムの運用者からの入力に基づく設定を実行する。具体的には、運用者から、処理対象の太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度の値の入力があれば、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525が管理する当該太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度をその入力値に設定する。
Finally, in step S140, the correction necessity determination unit 580 executes setting based on an input from the operator of the system. Specifically, if the operator inputs a value of the necessity for correction of the solar power generation equipment 220 to be processed, the degree of necessity for correction of the solar power generation equipment 220 managed by the solar power generation equipment specification management unit 525 To the input value.
以上説明した補正必要度判定部580の処理の中で、ステップS110の処理で、影による発電量抑制が多い場合には発電率が小さくなるので、補正必要度は、影による発電量抑制が少ない太陽光発電設備220ほど、小さい値をとる傾向がある。
Among the processes of the correction necessity determination unit 580 described above, the power generation rate is small when the power generation amount suppression by the shadow is large in the process of step S110. The solar power generation equipment 220 tends to take a smaller value.
また、ステップS120の処理で、連系点の電圧が常時低めとなっている場合には電圧上昇抑制制御が動作することが少なくなるので、電圧上昇抑制制御が少ない太陽光発電設備220ほど、小さい値をとる傾向がある。
Further, in the process of step S120, when the voltage at the interconnection point is always low, the voltage increase suppression control is less likely to operate, so the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 with less voltage increase suppression control is smaller. There is a tendency to take a value.
また、ステップS130の処理では、太陽光発電設備220自体が電圧上昇抑制制御の動作の有無を検出している場合に、その情報を直接的に用いて、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作が少ない太陽光発電設備220ほど、補正必要度が小さい値をとるように調整する。
Moreover, in the process of step S130, when the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 itself has detected the presence or absence of the operation | movement of voltage rise suppression control, the sunlight which has few operation | movement of voltage rise suppression control directly using the information The power generation equipment 220 is adjusted so as to take a value with a smaller correction necessity.
さらに、ステップS140の処理により、運用者が陽に指定することで、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作が少なく、かつ、影による発電量低下となることが少ないものほど、補正必要度を小さく定めることができる。
Furthermore, by the operator's explicit designation by the processing in step S140, the correction necessity degree can be set to be smaller as the operation of the voltage rise suppression control is less and the power generation amount is less reduced by the shadow. it can.
次に、図3及び図4を用いて、本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570の処理内容について説明する。
Next, processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS.
図3は、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける太陽光発電設備発電量補正部の処理内容を示すフローチャートである。図4は、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける太陽光発電設備発電量補正部の処理内容の説明図である。
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram of processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the embodiment of the present invention.
太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納保管されている各太陽光発電設備220の各時刻断面の発電量の実績データについて、電圧上昇抑制制御が動作せず、かつ、影による発電量低下がなかった場合の発電量を推定し、これを実績補正データとして、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納する。実績データ自体が、電圧上昇抑制制御が動作せず、かつ、影による発電量低下がなかった結果の発電量であった場合には、同じ値が実績補正データとして格納される。
The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 performs the voltage rise suppression control on the actual power generation amount data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored and stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515. The power generation amount when the power generation amount is not reduced due to the shadow is estimated, and this is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 as performance correction data. When the actual data itself is the power generation amount resulting from the fact that the voltage increase suppression control does not operate and the power generation amount is not reduced by the shadow, the same value is stored as the actual correction data.
最初に、図3のステップS200において、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、補正基準とする太陽光発電設備220を抽出する。
First, in step S200 of FIG. 3, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 extracts the solar power generation facility 220 as a correction reference.
具体的には、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525に格納されている、各太陽光発電設備220の補正必要度データ、地理的座標データを参照して、以下の処理を行う。最初に、処理対象の太陽光発電設備220をAとおく。次に、処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aの補正必要度が0となっていれば、Aを補正基準として抽出する。次に、処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aの補正必要度が0でない場合は、太陽光発電設備220Aとの地理的距離が事前に定めたしきい値より小さい太陽光発電設備220で、補正必要度が最小のものを、補正基準として抽出する。さらに、抽出した太陽光発電設備220をBとおく。ここで、地理的距離に関するしきい値は、例えば、数十mから数km程度としている。
Specifically, the following processing is performed with reference to the correction necessity data and geographical coordinate data of each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility specification management unit 525. First, the solar power generation facility 220 to be processed is set as A. Next, if the correction necessity degree of the photovoltaic power generation equipment A to be processed is 0, A is extracted as a correction reference. Next, when the correction necessity degree of the solar power generation facility A to be processed is not 0, correction is necessary in the solar power generation facility 220 whose geographical distance to the solar power generation facility 220A is smaller than a predetermined threshold value. The one with the smallest degree is extracted as a correction reference. Further, the extracted photovoltaic power generation facility 220 is set as B. Here, the threshold regarding the geographical distance is, for example, about several tens of meters to several kilometers.
次に、ステップS210において、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、実績補正の計算を実行する。この処理については、図4を用いて説明する。
Next, in step S210, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 executes calculation for performance correction. This process will be described with reference to FIG.
太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525から、処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aと抽出した太陽光発電設備Bの発電特性データを取得する。次に、処理対象の発電量実績データをPAとおく。そして、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515から、処理対象の発電量実績データPAと同じ時刻断面の抽出した太陽光発電設備Bの発電量実績データを取得し、これをPBとおく。次に、抽出した太陽光発電設備Bの発電特性データを参照して、抽出した太陽光発電設備Bの発電量実績データPBに対応付けられている日射強度を求める。
The solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 acquires the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation facility A to be processed and the extracted solar power generation facility B from the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525. Next, the generated power generation result data to be processed is set as PA. Then, the power generation amount actual data of the solar power generation facility B extracted from the same time section as the processing target power generation amount data PA is acquired from the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and this is set as PB. Next, with reference to the power generation characteristic data of the extracted solar power generation equipment B, the solar radiation intensity associated with the generated power generation result data PB of the solar power generation equipment B is obtained.
次に、ステップS220において、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、実績補正の格納を実行する。すなわち、処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aの発電特性データを参照して、求めた日射強度に対応付けられている発電量PA’を求め、これを処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aの発電量実績データPAに対応する実績補正データPA’として、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納する。
Next, in step S220, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 executes storage of actual result correction. That is, with reference to the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation facility A to be processed, the power generation amount PA ′ associated with the calculated solar radiation intensity is obtained, and this is the actual power generation amount of the solar power generation facility A to be processed. The result correction data PA ′ corresponding to the data PA is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
以上の処理により、日射強度を計測しなくても、補正基準とする太陽光発電設備Bの発電量実績データから、処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aの実績補正データを推定することができる。
Through the above processing, the actual correction data of the solar power generation facility A to be processed can be estimated from the actual power generation amount data of the solar power generation facility B as the correction reference without measuring the solar radiation intensity.
次に、ステップS230において、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、発電量実績データに関する処理を繰り返す。すなわち、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納されている、処理対象の太陽光発電設備Aの全ての発電量実績データPAについて、ステップS210,ステップS220の処理を行う。
Next, in step S230, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 repeats the processing related to the power generation amount actual data. That is, the processes of step S210 and step S220 are performed for all the power generation amount result data PA of the processing target solar power generation facility A stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
さらに、ステップS240において、太陽光発電設備発電量補正部570は、太陽光発電設備220に関する処理を繰り返す。すなわち、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に実績データが格納されている、全ての太陽光発電設備220について、ステップS200~ステップS220の処理を行う。
Furthermore, in step S240, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correction unit 570 repeats the processing related to the solar power generation facility 220. That is, the processes in steps S200 to S220 are performed for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 whose performance data is stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
次に、本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550の処理内容について説明する。
Next, processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identification unit 550 in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment will be described.
太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550は、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納されている各太陽光発電設備220の各時刻断面の実績補正データと予測データを用いて、各太陽光発電設備220のある時刻断面の発電量を、他の太陽光発電設備220の前記時刻断面より古い時刻断面の実績補正データや予測データを用いて計算する計算式を、既知の回帰分析により太陽光発電設備220の間の発電量相関モデルとして決定する。
The inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identifying unit 550 uses the actual correction data and the prediction data of each time section of each solar power generation facility 220 stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, and A calculation formula for calculating the power generation amount at a certain time section of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 using the actual correction data and the prediction data of the time section older than the time section of the other photovoltaic power generation facilities 220 is obtained by a known regression analysis. The power generation amount correlation model between the solar power generation facilities 220 is determined.
まず、説明を簡単にするため、いくつかの記号を定義する。
First, in order to simplify the explanation, some symbols are defined.
太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納されている実績補正データについて、最も古い時刻断面を1とし、時間経過に従ってインクリメントして異なる時刻断面を表現するものとする。
For the performance correction data stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515, the oldest time section is set to 1, and a different time section is expressed by incrementing with the passage of time.
また、太陽光発電設備Xの時刻断面Tの発電量をP(X,T)とおく。
Further, the power generation amount at the time section T of the solar power generation facility X is set to P (X, T).
ここで、時刻断面Tの実績補正データがある場合はそれを、実績補正データがなく予測データがある場合にはそれをとるものとする。
Here, if there is actual correction data for the time section T, take it if there is no actual correction data and there is prediction data.
そして、モデル同定対象の太陽光発電設備220をA、時刻断面をSとおく。
Suppose that the photovoltaic power generation equipment 220 subject to model identification is A and the time section is S.
太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550は、太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデルを、式(3)として決定する。
The inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlationmodel identifying unit 550 determines the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model as Equation (3).
The inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation
P(A,S)=α(A,0)+ΣΣ{α(A,X,I)×P(X,S-I)} …(3)
ただし、最初のΣは、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525で管理されている全ての太陽光発電設備Xについて和をとることを意味し、2つめのΣはIについて和をとることを意味し、Iは1から事前に定めた値Imaxまでを動く。さらに、α(A,0)はAによって決まる定数、α(A,X,I)はAとXによって決まる定数を表す。 P (A, S) = α (A, 0) + ΣΣ {α (A, X, I) × P (X, SI)} (3)
However, the first Σ means taking the sum for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities X managed by the photovoltaic power generation facilityspecification management unit 525, and the second Σ means taking the sum for I. , I moves from 1 to a predetermined value Imax. Further, α (A, 0) represents a constant determined by A, and α (A, X, I) represents a constant determined by A and X.
ただし、最初のΣは、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525で管理されている全ての太陽光発電設備Xについて和をとることを意味し、2つめのΣはIについて和をとることを意味し、Iは1から事前に定めた値Imaxまでを動く。さらに、α(A,0)はAによって決まる定数、α(A,X,I)はAとXによって決まる定数を表す。 P (A, S) = α (A, 0) + ΣΣ {α (A, X, I) × P (X, SI)} (3)
However, the first Σ means taking the sum for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities X managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility
式(3)の回帰分析に用いるサンプルデータには、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納されている、各太陽光発電設備220の時刻断面Sと、S-Jmaxまでの発電量実績補正データを用いる。Jmaxは、Jmax≧Imaxなるように事前に定めるものとする。
The sample data used for the regression analysis of Equation (3) includes the time section S of each photovoltaic power generation facility 220 stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 and the actual power generation amount correction up to S-Jmax. Use data. Jmax is determined in advance such that Jmax ≧ Imax.
次に、図5を用いて、本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560の処理内容について説明する。
Next, processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 in the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.
図5は、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける太陽光発電設備発電量予測部の処理内容を示すフローチャートである。
FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、太陽光発電設備220の将来時点の発電量を予測する。
The photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 predicts the future power generation amount of the solar power generation facility 220.
まず、ステップS300において、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、初期設定を実行する。具体的には、予測対象の太陽光発電設備220をA、予測対象の将来の時刻断面をNとする。
First, in step S300, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 performs initial setting. Specifically, the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 to be predicted is A, and the future time section of the prediction target is N.
次に、ステップS310において、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、最新の実績補正データの時刻断面を抽出する。すなわち、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納されている最新の実績補正データの時刻断面を参照し、これをMとおく。
Next, in step S310, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 extracts a time section of the latest performance correction data. That is, the time section of the latest performance correction data stored in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 is referred to, and this is set as M.
次に、ステップS320において、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、 時刻断面Mの太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデルを取得する。すなわち、太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部550に、モデル同定対象の太陽光発電設備A、時刻断面Mを渡し、モデル同定結果のモデル式を取得する。取得したモデル式を下記の式(4)とする。
Next, in step S320, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generationamount prediction unit 560 obtains the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model of the time section M. That is, the solar power generation facility A and the time section M of the model identification target are passed to the inter-photovoltaic power generation amount correlation model identification unit 550, and the model expression of the model identification result is acquired. The acquired model formula is defined as the following formula (4).
Next, in step S320, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation
P(A,M)=α(A,0)+ΣΣ{α(A,X,I)×P(X,M-I)} …(4)
ただし、最初のΣは、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525で管理されている全ての太陽光発電設備220Xについて和をとることを意味し、2つめのΣはIについて和をとることを意味し、Iは1から事前に定めた値Imaxまでを動く。さらに、α(A,0)はAによって決まる定数、α(A,X,I)はAとXによって決まる定数を表す。 P (A, M) = α (A, 0) + ΣΣ {α (A, X, I) × P (X, MI)} (4)
However, the first Σ means taking the sum for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220X managed by the photovoltaic power generation facilityspecification management unit 525, and the second Σ means taking the sum for I. , I moves from 1 to a predetermined value Imax. Further, α (A, 0) represents a constant determined by A, and α (A, X, I) represents a constant determined by A and X.
ただし、最初のΣは、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525で管理されている全ての太陽光発電設備220Xについて和をとることを意味し、2つめのΣはIについて和をとることを意味し、Iは1から事前に定めた値Imaxまでを動く。さらに、α(A,0)はAによって決まる定数、α(A,X,I)はAとXによって決まる定数を表す。 P (A, M) = α (A, 0) + ΣΣ {α (A, X, I) × P (X, MI)} (4)
However, the first Σ means taking the sum for all the photovoltaic power generation facilities 220X managed by the photovoltaic power generation facility
次に、ステップS330において、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、時刻断面M+1の発電量を予測する。すなわち、式(4)でMをM+1と書き換えた式を用いてP(A,M)を計算し、これを太陽光発電設備220Aの時刻断面M+1の発電量の予測値として、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納する。
Next, in step S330, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 predicts the power generation amount of the time section M + 1. That is, P (A, M) is calculated using an expression in which M is rewritten as M + 1 in Expression (4), and this is used as a predicted value of the power generation amount at the time section M + 1 of the solar power generation equipment 220A. Stored in the power generation amount management unit 515.
最後に、ステップS340において、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560は、時刻断面Nまで繰り返えす。すなわち、M=Nとなるまで、MをM+1で置き換えて、ステップS320,S330の処理を繰り返す。
Finally, in step S340, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 repeats until the time section N. That is, until M = N, M is replaced with M + 1, and the processes of steps S320 and S330 are repeated.
以上説明したように、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560が予測して、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に格納される予測データは、発電量の実績データをベースにしていて、電圧上昇抑制制御や影による発電量低下の影響を除外したものである。したがって、配電系統の電圧分布の影響を除去して、太陽光発電設備の発電量を高精度に予測可能となる。
As described above, the prediction data predicted by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 and stored in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515 is based on the actual power generation amount data, and the voltage rise This excludes the effects of reduced power generation due to suppression control and shadows. Therefore, it is possible to predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility with high accuracy by removing the influence of the voltage distribution of the distribution system.
次に、図6を用いて、本実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける気象情報変換部590の処理内容について説明する。
Next, processing contents of the weather information conversion unit 590 in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation prediction system and the weather prediction system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.
図6は、本発明の一実施形態による太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム及び気象予測システムにおける気象情報変換部の処理内容を示すフローチャートである。
FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the weather information conversion unit in the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system and the weather prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
気象情報変換部590は、太陽光発電設備220の設置場所の将来時点の日射強度を予測する。
The meteorological information conversion unit 590 predicts the solar radiation intensity at the future time of the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220.
すなわち、ステップS400において、気象情報変換部590は、初期設定を実行する。具体的には、予測対象の太陽光発電設備220をA、予測対象の将来の時刻断面をNとする。
That is, in step S400, the weather information conversion unit 590 performs initial setting. Specifically, the photovoltaic power generation facility 220 to be predicted is A, and the future time section of the prediction target is N.
次に、ステップS410において、気象情報変換部590は、発電量を予測する。すなわち、気象情報変換部590は、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560に、予測対象の太陽光発電設備220A、時刻断面Nを渡し、発電量の予測を起動する。そして、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560により、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515に、対象の予測データが格納される。さらに、対象の発電量予測値を、太陽光発電設備発電量管理部515から取得する。
Next, in step S410, the weather information conversion unit 590 predicts the power generation amount. That is, the meteorological information conversion unit 590 passes the photovoltaic power generation facility 220A to be predicted and the time section N to the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560, and starts the prediction of the power generation amount. Then, the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 560 stores the target prediction data in the solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515. Furthermore, the target power generation amount prediction value is acquired from the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount management unit 515.
次に、ステップS420において、気象情報変換部590は、日射強度への変換を実行する。すなわち、気象情報変換部590は、太陽光発電設備仕様管理部525から、太陽光発電設備220Aの発電特性データを取得し、前記の発電量予測値に対応する日射強度を求める。そして、求めた日射強度を、太陽光発電設備220Aの設置場所の時刻断面Mにおける日射強度として、気象状態値管理部530に格納する。
Next, in step S420, the meteorological information conversion unit 590 executes conversion to solar radiation intensity. That is, the meteorological information conversion unit 590 acquires the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation facility 220A from the solar power generation facility specification management unit 525, and obtains the solar radiation intensity corresponding to the predicted power generation amount. Then, the obtained solar radiation intensity is stored in the weather condition value management unit 530 as the solar radiation intensity at the time section M of the installation location of the photovoltaic power generation facility 220A.
なお、気象情報変換部590は、さらに、需要家連携システム400の情報配信部420を介して、前記予測した日射強度の情報を、需要家200に配信し、情報出力機器230に出力するとしてもよい。
Note that the weather information conversion unit 590 further distributes the predicted solar radiation intensity information to the customer 200 and outputs it to the information output device 230 via the information distribution unit 420 of the customer cooperation system 400. Good.
以上説明したように、太陽光発電設備発電量予測部560で予測された予測データは、発電量の実績データをベースにしていて、電圧上昇抑制制御や影による発電量低下の影響を除外したものである。したがって、気象情報変換部590も、日射強度を高精度に予測することができる。以上のようにして、太陽光発電設備の発電量をもとに高精度に気象を予測可能となる。
As described above, the prediction data predicted by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generationamount prediction unit 560 is based on the actual power generation amount data, and excludes the effects of voltage increase suppression control and power generation amount decrease due to shadows. It is. Therefore, the weather information conversion unit 590 can also predict the solar radiation intensity with high accuracy. As described above, the weather can be predicted with high accuracy based on the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility.
As described above, the prediction data predicted by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation
100…配電系統
200…需要家
210…電力負荷機器
220…太陽光発電設備
230…情報出力機器
300…配電監視システム
310…配電系統監視部
320…配電系統状態予測部
400…需要家連携システム
410…太陽光発電設備管理部
420…情報配信部
500…太陽光発電設備発電量予測&気象予測システム
510…配電系統状態値管理部
515…太陽光発電設備発電量管理部
520…太陽光発電設備電圧上昇抑制状況管理部
525…太陽光発電設備仕様管理部
530…気象状態値管理部
550…太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部
560…太陽光発電設備発電量予測部
570…太陽光発電設備発電量補正部
580…補正必要度判定部
590…気象情報変換部 DESCRIPTION OFSYMBOLS 100 ... Distribution system 200 ... Consumer 210 ... Electric power load equipment 220 ... Solar power generation equipment 230 ... Information output device 300 ... Distribution monitoring system 310 ... Distribution system monitoring part 320 ... Distribution system state prediction part 400 ... Customer cooperation system 410 ... Photovoltaic power generation facility management unit 420 ... Information distribution unit 500 ... Solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction & weather prediction system 510 ... Distribution system state value management unit 515 ... Solar power generation facility power generation amount management unit 520 ... Solar power generation facility voltage increase Suppression status management unit 525 ... Solar power generation facility specification management unit 530 ... Weather condition value management unit 550 ... Inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identification unit 560 ... Solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 570 ... Solar power generation facility power generation Amount correction unit 580 ... correction necessity degree determination unit 590 ... weather information conversion unit
200…需要家
210…電力負荷機器
220…太陽光発電設備
230…情報出力機器
300…配電監視システム
310…配電系統監視部
320…配電系統状態予測部
400…需要家連携システム
410…太陽光発電設備管理部
420…情報配信部
500…太陽光発電設備発電量予測&気象予測システム
510…配電系統状態値管理部
515…太陽光発電設備発電量管理部
520…太陽光発電設備電圧上昇抑制状況管理部
525…太陽光発電設備仕様管理部
530…気象状態値管理部
550…太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部
560…太陽光発電設備発電量予測部
570…太陽光発電設備発電量補正部
580…補正必要度判定部
590…気象情報変換部 DESCRIPTION OF
Claims (7)
- 複数の太陽光発電設備について、過去の発電量の実績データを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測システムであって、
各太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量の実績データを、配電系統連系点の電圧上昇抑制のための発電量抑制や影等による発電量低下の影響を除去して、それらの影響がなかった場合の発電量の補正値を求める太陽光発電設備発電量補正部と、
該太陽光発電設備発電量補正部によって求められた複数の太陽光発電設備の前記発電量の補正値の間の相関モデルを同定する太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部と、
該太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部によって同定された前記相関モデルを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測部を備えることを特徴とする太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム。 For a plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities, a photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system that predicts the future power generation amount of each solar power generation facility using past data of actual power generation amount,
The past power generation data of each photovoltaic power generation facility was not affected by eliminating the effects of power generation reduction or shadowing, etc. A power generation amount correction unit for photovoltaic power generation equipment to obtain a correction value of the amount of power generation
A power generation amount correlation model identifying unit between solar power generation facilities for identifying a correlation model between correction values of the power generation amounts of a plurality of solar power generation facilities obtained by the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit;
A photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit that predicts a future power generation amount of each solar power generation facility using the correlation model identified by the inter-solar power generation facility power generation amount correlation model identification unit is provided. A solar power generation facility power generation prediction system. - 請求項1記載の太陽光発電設備発電量予測システムにおいて、
各太陽光発電設備について、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作や影によって発電量が低下する程度に応じて、当該設備の補正必要度データとして設定する補正必要度判定部を備え、
前記太陽光発電設備発電量補正部は、前記補正必要度判定部により設定された補正必要度を用いて、発電量の補正値を求めることを特徴とする太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム。 In the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction system according to claim 1,
For each photovoltaic power generation facility, according to the extent to which the amount of power generation is reduced due to the operation and shadow of the voltage rise suppression control, it is provided with a correction necessity degree determination unit that is set as correction necessity degree data for the facility,
The solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit obtains a power generation amount correction value by using the correction necessity degree set by the correction necessity degree determination unit. - 請求項2記載の太陽光発電設備発電量予測システムにおいて、
前記補正必要度判定部は、全ての太陽光発電設備の発電率から算出された係数K1を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧低め度から算出された係数K2を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧上昇抑制率から算出された係数K3を乗じた補正必要度の少なくともいずれかの補正必要度を前記設備の補正必要度データとして設定することを特徴とする太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム。 In the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction system according to claim 2,
The correction necessity determination unit multiplies the correction necessity by multiplying by the coefficient K1 calculated from the power generation rate of all the solar power generation facilities, and the coefficient K2 calculated by the voltage lowering degree of all the solar power generation facilities. The necessity degree and at least one of the necessity degree of correction multiplied by the coefficient K3 calculated from the voltage rise suppression rate of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities is set as the necessity degree correction data of the equipment. Photovoltaic power generation forecast system. - 複数の太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量の実績データを、配電系統連系点の電圧上昇抑制のための発電量抑制や影等による発電量低下の影響を除去して、それらの影響がなかった場合の発電量の補正値を求める太陽光発電設備発電量補正部と、
該太陽光発電設備発電量補正部によって求められた複数の太陽光発電設備の前記発電量の補正値の間の相関モデルを同定する太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部と、
該太陽光発電設備間発電量相関モデル同定部によって同定された前記相関モデルを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測部と、
該太陽光発電設備発電量予測部によって予測された前記将来時点の発電量の予測値を日射強度に変換する気象情報変換部を備えることを特徴とする気象予測システム。 The past power generation data of multiple solar power generation facilities is not affected by eliminating the effects of power generation reduction or shadowing etc. Solar power generation power generation amount correction unit for obtaining a correction value of the power generation amount when
A power generation amount correlation model identifying unit between solar power generation facilities for identifying a correlation model between correction values of the power generation amounts of a plurality of solar power generation facilities obtained by the solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit;
Using the correlation model identified by the power generation amount correlation model identifying unit between the solar power generation facilities, a solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit that predicts the power generation amount of each solar power generation facility in the future,
A weather prediction system comprising a weather information conversion unit that converts a predicted value of the power generation amount at the future time predicted by the photovoltaic power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit into solar radiation intensity. - 請求項4記載の太陽光発電設備発電量予測システムにおいて、
各太陽光発電設備について、電圧上昇抑制制御の動作や影によって発電量が低下する程度に応じて、当該設備の補正必要度データとして設定する補正必要度判定部を備え、
前記太陽光発電設備発電量補正部は、前記補正必要度判定部により設定された補正必要度を用いて、発電量の補正値を求めることを特徴とする太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム。 In the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction system according to claim 4,
For each photovoltaic power generation facility, according to the extent to which the amount of power generation is reduced due to the operation and shadow of the voltage rise suppression control, it is provided with a correction necessity degree determination unit that is set as correction necessity degree data for the facility,
The solar power generation facility power generation amount correction unit obtains a power generation amount correction value by using the correction necessity degree set by the correction necessity degree determination unit. - 請求項5記載の太陽光発電設備発電量予測システムにおいて、
前記補正必要度判定部は、全ての太陽光発電設備の発電率から算出された係数K1を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧低め度から算出された係数K2を乗じた補正必要度,全ての太陽光発電設備の電圧上昇抑制率から算出された係数K3を乗じた補正必要度の少なくともいずれかの補正必要度を前記設備の補正必要度データとして設定することを特徴とする太陽光発電設備発電量予測システム。 In the solar power generation facility power generation amount prediction system according to claim 5,
The correction necessity determination unit multiplies the correction necessity by multiplying by the coefficient K1 calculated from the power generation rate of all the solar power generation facilities, and the coefficient K2 calculated by the voltage lowering degree of all the solar power generation facilities. The necessity degree and at least one of the necessity degree of correction multiplied by the coefficient K3 calculated from the voltage rise suppression rate of all the photovoltaic power generation facilities is set as the necessity degree correction data of the equipment. Photovoltaic power generation forecast system. - 複数の太陽光発電設備について、過去の発電量の実績データを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測する太陽光発電設備発電量予測方法であって、
各太陽光発電設備の過去の発電量の実績データを、発電量低下の影響を除去して、それらの影響がなかった場合の発電量の補正値を求め、
該求められた複数の太陽光発電設備の前記発電量の補正値の間の相関モデルを同定し、
該同定された前記相関モデルを用いて、各太陽光発電設備の将来時点の発電量を予測することを特徴とする太陽光発電設備発電量予測方法。 For a plurality of solar power generation facilities, a method for predicting the power generation amount of solar power generation facilities that predicts the power generation amount of each solar power generation facility at a future time point using past actual power generation amount data,
From the actual data of past power generation amount of each photovoltaic power generation facility, the correction value of the power generation amount when there is no such influence is calculated,
Identifying a correlation model between the calculated power generation correction values of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities,
A method for predicting a power generation amount of a solar power generation facility, wherein the power generation amount at a future time of each solar power generation facility is predicted using the identified correlation model.
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