US20150120193A1

US20150120193A1 - Weather predicting method, water predicting apparatus, and air utilizing apparatus

Info

Publication number: US20150120193A1
Application number: US14/395,816
Authority: US
Inventors: Tatsuya Sakurai; Shinsuke Satake; Kenichiro Kado; Kei Kubota; Xidong Hu; Keita Yamamuro; Yuzuru Kakutani; Teru Asaka
Original assignee: JGC Corp
Current assignee: JGC Corp
Priority date: 2012-07-31
Filing date: 2012-10-11
Publication date: 2015-04-30
Also published as: AU2013297556A1; JP6192644B2; AU2012386701B2; RU2584918C1; US20150066370A1; CA2872957A1; CA2870668A1; WO2014021236A1; AP2014008038A0; JPWO2014020778A1; RU2581741C1; AU2012386701A1; CA2870668C; WO2014020778A1; JP6084224B2; US9753184B2; AP2014008041A0; AU2013297556B2; JPWO2014021236A1; CA2872957C

Abstract

A weather predicting method is provided and includes: selecting, from weather information including temperature data and related to times and areas, a weather information related to an area containing a location where an air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to multiple times over a certain period; by solving, with weather information as input data, differential equations expressing weather information based on weather analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, generating first narrow-area weather information related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weather information; selecting a second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among the first narrow-area weather information; and generating a temperature cumulative distribution or a temperature exceedance probability distribution over a certain period by using temperature data contained in the second narrow-area weather information for calculating a design temperature of the air utilizing apparatus.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present invention relates to a weather predicting method and a weather predicting apparatus for reproducing, by using past weather data, weather data in an area which is smaller than an area corresponding to the past weather data. More particularly, the invention relates to a weather predicting method and a weather predicting apparatus for reproducing weather data in order to design an air utilizing apparatus to be placed in a location in which weather observation data is not available, and also to such an air utilizing apparatus.

BACKGROUND ART

An air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as a heating energy source or a cooling energy source, a power source, and/or a reactant is known. As an air utilizing apparatus which utilizes air as a cooling energy source, an air fin cooler, for example, is known. As an air utilizing apparatus which utilizes air as a power source, a wind power generator is known. As an air utilizing apparatus which utilizes air as a reactant, a gas turbine causing combustion reaction or a reactor causing oxidation reforming reaction is known.
In these air utilizing apparatuses, a required amount of heat and output energy significantly differ depending on the velocity and the volume of air and so on.
Depending on the direction of the wind in an area in which an air fin cooler is placed, discharged gas may be likely to return to a suction side of the air fin cooler. Moreover, if the combustion gas in a gas turbine is returned to a suction side, the performance is significantly decreased.
Additionally, in a wind power generator, unless a desired air volume and velocity is obtained, a desired level of power is not output.
For example, the amount of gas exhausted from a gas turbine is a function of weather conditions (temperature, atmospheric pressure, and humidity) at a location in which the gas turbine is placed. Accordingly, a method of estimating an amount of gas emitted from a gas turbine by generating an emission amount output report including emission levels on the basis of a plurality of items of weather data is disclosed (see below, Patent Literature 1). In the disclosed estimating method, when a user wishes to obtain predictions of weather conditions, an access is made to, for example, a third-party weather system, and data from weather services is interpolated together with received data, thereby predicting weather conditions around the gas turbine. In the disclosed estimating method, the weather is forecast in this manner if future weather data is not available.
Weather forecasts utilizing weather simulations (see below, Patent Literature 2), or technologies concerning the prediction of the diffusion of radioactive materials (see below, Patent Literature 3) are also disclosed.

PRIOR ART DOCUMENT

Patent Literature

Patent Literature 1: Japanese Patent Application Laid-open Publication No. 2009-62983
Patent Literature 2: Japanese Patent Application Laid-open Publication No. 2010-60443
Patent Literature 3: Japanese Patent Application Laid-open Publication No. 2005-283202

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

Technical Problem

As described above, when measuring the temperature and the direction of the wind in an area in which an air utilizing apparatus will be placed, measurements over several years are required since it is necessary to design an air utilizing apparatus by considering the influence of an annual change, such as whether or not the El Nino phenomenon is observed. However, if there is no data over the years, an air utilizing apparatus has to be designed on the basis of low-precision environmental data, since it is difficult to measure the temperature and the direction of the wind for several years in future from a present time point.
Patent Literature 1 discloses that certain measures are taken in advance by utilizing weather information so as to prevent the occurrence of the lean blowout in a combustion system during the operation for decreasing the emission amount of NOx. An object of Patent Literature 2 or Patent Literature 3 is to predict future weather conditions, such as to forecast the weather or to predict the diffusion of dangerous materials. Accordingly, Patent Literature 1 through Patent Literature 3 do not whatsoever disclose that the weather is predicted by utilizing weather simulations for the purpose of designing an air utilizing apparatus.
In one aspect of the present invention, it is an object of the invention to obtain the direction of the wind necessary for designing an air utilizing apparatus, on the basis of the weather which is predicted by conducting simulations of the weather in an area which includes a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed, by the use of, as input data, weather information related to the area which includes the location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a plurality of times over a certain period, even if weather data concerning the location of the air utilizing apparatus is not available.

Solution to Problem

Embodiments to solve the above mentioned problems are realized as a system on chip device shown in the following item sets.
1. A weather predicting method for predicting the weather by conducting weather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, a power source, and a reactant, the weather predicting method including:
selecting, from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at least wind direction data and which is related to times and areas, a set of items of weather information related to an area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a plurality of times over a certain period;
by solving, with the use of each item of the set of the items of weather information as input data, differential equations expressing the weather information based on weather analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, generating a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weather information;
selecting a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among the items of first narrow-area weather information; and
calculating a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction data contained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information in order to determine a direction in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed.
2. The weather predicting method according to item 1, wherein, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, a layout in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a leeward side is generated.
3. The weather predicting method according to item 1 or 2, wherein a step of generating the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information further includes recalculating the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating at least one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in the area corresponding to the weather information.
4. The weather predicting method according to any one of items 1 to 3, further including:
calculating meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information by computing the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations; and
calculating, by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus.
5. The weather predicting method according to any one of items 1 to 4, further including:
recalculating, if topographical features of an area in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical features described in the weather information due to a reason of one of land leveling, land use, and equipment installation, the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information on the basis of topographical information reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling, the land use, and the equipment installation.
6. The weather predicting method according to any one of items 1 to 5, wherein the first narrow-area weather information and the second narrow-area weather information are three-dimensional data, and indicate at least one of wind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, and temperature.
7. A weather predicting apparatus for predicting the weather by conducting weather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, a power source, and a reactant, the weather predicting apparatus including:
a storage section that stores therein a set of items of weather information obtained from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at least wind direction data and which is related to times and areas, the set of items of weather information being related to an area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a plurality of times over a certain period; and
a processor that selects the set of items of weather information, generates a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weather information by solving, with the use of each item of the set of the items of weather information as input data, differential equations expressing the weather information based on weather analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, selects a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among the items of first narrow-area weather information, and calculates a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction data contained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information in order to determine a direction in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed.
8. The weather predicting apparatus according to item 7, wherein, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, the processor generates a layout in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a leeward side.
9. The weather predicting apparatus according to item 7 or 8, wherein the processor recalculates, in a step of generating the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information, the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating at least one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in the area corresponding to the weather information.
10. The weather predicting apparatus according to any one of items 7 to 9, wherein the processor calculates meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the weather data by computing the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations, and calculates, by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus.
11. The weather predicting apparatus according to any one of items 7 to 10, further including:
recalculating, if topographical features of an area in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical features described in the weather information due to a reason of one of land leveling, land use, and equipment installation, the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information on the basis of topographical information reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling, the land use, and the equipment installation.
12. The weather predicting apparatus according to any one of items 7 to 11, wherein the first narrow-area weather information and the second narrow-area weather information are three-dimensional data, and indicate at least one of wind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, and temperature.
13. An air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, a power source, and a reactant, the air utilizing apparatus including:
a suction unit that sucks the air;
an operation unit that performs one of heat exchange, reaction, and power recovery by using the air sucked by the suction unit; and
a discharge unit that discharges gas emitted through one of operations of heat exchange, reaction, and power recovery, wherein:
from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at least wind direction data and which is related to times and areas, a set of items of weather information related to an area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a plurality of times over a certain period are selected;
by solving, with the use of each item of the set of the items of weather information as input data, differential equations expressing the weather information based on weather analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the weather information is generated;
a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus is selected from among the items of first narrow-area weather information; and
the air utilizing apparatus is placed in the area on the basis of a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency calculated by using wind direction data contained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information.
14. The air utilizing apparatus according to item 13, wherein the air utilizing apparatus is placed such that gas discharged from the discharge unit located on a windward side indicated in the wind direction data included in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information will not be sucked by the suction unit located on a leeward side indicated in the wind direction data included in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information.
15. The air utilizing apparatus according to item 13 or 14, wherein:
meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information is calculated by computing the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations, and by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus is calculated; and
the air utilizing apparatus is placed such that the heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus will not be returned to the suction unit.

Effect of the Invention

In one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to obtain the direction of the wind necessary for designing an air utilizing apparatus, on the basis of the weather which is predicted by conducting simulations of the weather in an area which includes a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed, by the use of, as input data, weather information related to the area which includes the location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed and related to a plurality of times over a certain period, even if weather data concerning the location of the air utilizing apparatus is not available.
It is also possible to provide a layout which is optimal for an air utilizing apparatus and an air utilizing apparatus which is optimally placed with respect to the calculated direction of the wind.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 illustrates an example of the functional configuration of a weather predicting apparatus.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example of the hardware configuration of the weather predicting apparatus.

FIG. 3A illustrates an example of an air utilizing apparatus.

FIG. 3B illustrates a specific example of the air utilizing apparatus.

FIG. 3C illustrates another specific example of the air utilizing apparatus.

FIG. 4 illustrates an example of wide-area weather information.

FIG. 5 illustrates an example of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example of meteorological field information.

FIG. 7A illustrates an example of temperature data and an example of wind speed data obtained from narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 7B illustrates a temperature cumulative distribution obtained from temperature data of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 7C illustrates a temperature frequency probability distribution obtained from temperature data of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 8 illustrates an example of the relationship between the amount of liquefied hydrocarbon gas and the design temperature.

FIG. 9 is a wind rose obtained from wind direction data of narrow-area weather information.

FIG. 10A illustrates the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and air fin coolers.

FIG. 10B illustrates the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and air fin coolers.

FIG. 11A illustrates the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and gas turbines.

FIG. 11B illustrates the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and gas turbines.

FIG. 12A illustrates the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and liquefaction plants.

FIG. 12B illustrates the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and liquefaction plants.

FIG. 13 illustrates an example of a flowchart of temperature analysis and design.

FIG. 14 illustrates an example of a flowchart of wind-direction analysis and design.

DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENTS

With reference to the drawings, descriptions will now be given of: 1. Weather Analysis Models; 2. Computational Fluid Analysis; 3. Functional Configuration and Hardware Configuration of Weather Predicting Apparatus; 4. Air Utilizing Apparatus; 5. Prediction of Weather Information around Air Utilizing Apparatus; 6. Temperature Cumulative Distribution around Air Utilizing Apparatus; 7. Wind Rose around Air Utilizing Apparatus; 8. Layout in which Air Utilizing Apparatus is Arranged and Air Utilizing Apparatus on the basis of the Layout; 9. Flowchart of Temperature Analysis and Design; and 10. Flowchart of Wind-Direction Analysis and Design.
1. Weather Analysis Models
Weather analysis models include various physical models, and by analyzing such physical models by using a computer, calculations for predicting the weather having higher spatial resolution are performed, thereby making it possible to conduct weather simulations. Weather simulations have an advantage over field observation that weather information having higher spatial resolution can be estimated.
In order to conduct weather simulations, it is necessary to load initial values and boundary value data from a weather database downloaded from a network. A sufficiently detailed spatial resolution for designing an air utilizing apparatus is not available. However, as weather information concerning a wide area including an area in which an air utilizing apparatus is placed (hereinafter referred to as a “wide-area weather information”), for example, NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction), which is global observation analysis data reanalyzed every six hours, provided by, for example, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), is available. NCEP data as the wide-area weather information include weather elements (wind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, and temperature) on three-dimensional grid points obtained by dividing the world into a grid pattern (grid spacing is 1.5 km through 400 km), and are updated every six hours. In this embodiment, it is necessary to design an air utilizing apparatus by considering the influence of an annual change, such as whether or not the El Nino phenomenon is observed. Accordingly, wide-area weather information over the several years (for example, the above-described NCEP data) is used as initial values and boundary value data.
An example of physical models included in weather analysis models is the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting Model). The WRF include various physical models. Examples of the physical models are radiation models for calculating the amount of solar radiation and the amount of atmospheric radiation, turbulence models for expressing a turbulence mixed layer, and ground surface models for calculating the ground surface temperature, soil temperature, field moisture, snowfall amount, and surface flux.
The weather analysis models include partial differential equations expressing the motion of fluid in the atmosphere, such as Navier-Stokes equations concerning the motion of fluid and empirical equations derived from atmospheric observation results, and partial differential equations expressing the law of conservation of mass and the law of conservation of energy. By solving these simultaneous partial differential equations, weather simulations can be conducted. Thus, by using wide-area weather information as input data, differential equations based on weather analysis models for weather simulations are solved, thereby making it possible to generate weather information concerning a location of an air utilizing apparatus related to an area having a narrower spatial resolution than that of wide-area weather information. Hereinafter, weather information generated in this manner is referred to as “narrow-area weather information”.
2. Computational Fluid Analysis
Computational fluid analysis is a numerical analysis and simulation technique for observing the flow of fluid by applying Computational Fluid Dynamics in which equations concerning the motion of fluid are solved by using a computer. More specifically, by using Navier-Stokes equations, which are fluid dynamic equations, the state of fluid is spatially calculated by utilizing the Finite Volume Method. The procedure for computational fluid analysis includes a step of creating 3D model data reflecting a structure of a facility, which is a subject to be examined, a step of generating grids by dividing a range of the subject to be examined into grids, which are the minimum calculation units, a step of loading initial values and boundary values and solving fluid dynamic equations concerning each grid by using a computer, and a step of outputting various values (flow velocity, pressure, etc.) obtained from analysis results, as images, such as contours and vectors.
By conducting computational fluid analysis, fluid simulations having higher resolution than those obtained by weather analysis models can be implemented. Thus, it is possible to provide information concerning air current phenomena unique to a space scale of a subject to be examined, such as small changes in the wind speed and the wind direction and a change in air current around a building caused by a disturbance of an air current on a scale from several centimeters to several meters, which are very difficult to predict by weather simulations.
3. Functional Configuration and Hardware Configuration of Weather Predicting Apparatus
A weather predicting apparatus uses weather analysis models and conducts computational fluid analysis, thereby calculating narrow-area weather information concerning a narrow area in which an air utilizing apparatus is placed. And, the weather predicting apparatus may also perform design temperature calculating processing or wind-rose generating processing, which will be discussed later.
FIG. 1 illustrates an example of the functional configuration of a weather predicting apparatus. A weather predicting apparatus 90 shown in FIG. 1 includes a storage section 12 which stores therein data and programs and a processor 14 which executes arithmetic operations. In the storage section 12, a weather analysis program 901, such as the WRF, a computational fluid analysis program 903, a design temperature calculating program 905, a wind-rose generating program 907, a layout output program 909 for generating a layout, a weather database 800, wide-area weather information 801, such as NCEP data, narrow-area weather information 803 obtained by weather simulations, air flow field information 805 obtained by computational fluid analysis, temperature analysis data 807, wind direction analysis data 808, and layout data 809 are stored. The weather database stores therein the wide-area weather information 801, which is obtained as a result of downloading it from an external source or is obtained from a storage medium.
The processor 14 executes the weather analysis program 901 and thereby performs weather analysis processing in which the narrow-area weather information 803 is generated from the wide-area weather information 801 and is stored in the storage section 12. The processor 14 also executes the computational fluid analysis program 903 and thereby performs computational fluid processing in which the air flow field data 807 is generated from the narrow-area weather information 803 and is stored in the storage section 12. Similarly, the processor 14 also executes the design temperature calculating program 905 and the wind-rose generating program 907 and thereby performs design temperature calculating processing and wind-rose generating processing, respectively, which will be discussed later, and displays the related temperature analysis data 807 and the related wind direction analysis data 809, respectively, on a display section 16 which displays data, such as images.
Further, the processor 14 executes the layout generating program 909 and outputs the layout data 809 on the basis of the wind direction analysis data 808.
FIG. 2 illustrates an example of the hardware configuration of the weather predicting apparatus. The weather predicting apparatus 90 shown in FIG. 2 includes a processor 12A, a main storage device 14A, an auxiliary storage device 14B, which is a hard disk or an SSD (Solid State Drive), a drive device 15 that reads data from a storage medium 900, and a communication device 19, such as an NIC (network interface card). These components are connected to one another via a bus 20. The weather prediction apparatus 90 is connected to a display 16 and an input device 17, such as a keyboard and a mouse, which are externally disposed. The processor 12 shown in FIG. 1 corresponds to the processor 12A, and the storage section 14 corresponds to the main storage device 14A.
In the storage medium 900, as shown in FIG. 1, the weather database 800, the weather analysis program 901, the computational fluid analysis program 903, the design temperature calculating program 905, the wind-rose generating program 907, and the layout generating program 909 may be stored as data items. These data items 800 through 909 are stored in the storage section 12, as shown in FIG. 1.
The weather predicting apparatus 90 may be connected to an external server 200 or a computer 210 or 220 via a network 40. The computer 210 and the external server 200 may have the same components as those of the weather predicting apparatus 90. For example, the weather predicting apparatus 90 may receive the weather database 800 stored in the server 200 via the network 40. Alternatively, among the programs shown in FIG. 1, only the weather analysis program 901 concerning weather simulations having a high system load may be stored in the weather predicting apparatus 90, and the other programs may be stored in any one of the computers 210 and 220 and may be executed in the computer 210 or 220. Additionally, a description has been given above in which the weather predicting apparatus 90 is restricted to hardware, such as a computer. However, the weather predicting apparatus 90 may be a virtual server in a data center. In this case, the hardware configuration may be as follows. The programs 901 through 909 may be stored in a storage section in a data center, and a processor in the data center may execute the stored programs 901 through 909, and data may be output from the data center to a client computer. The external server 200 may include a weather database, in which case, the weather predicting apparatus 90 may obtain wide-area weather data from the external server 200.
4. Air Utilizing Apparatus
FIG. 3A illustrates an example of an air utilizing apparatus. An air utilizing apparatus 100 shown in FIG. 3A is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, a power source, and a reactant. The air utilizing apparatus 100 includes a suction unit 101 which sucks air, an operation unit 102 which performs one of heat exchange, reaction, and power recovery by using air sucked by the suction unit, and a discharge unit 103 which discharges gas emitted through one of the operations of heat exchange, reaction, and power recovery, though these elements are not essential components.
FIG. 3B illustrates a specific example of the air utilizing apparatus. FIG. 3B illustrates an air fin cooler 100A and a gas turbine 100B as examples of the air utilizing apparatus 100. The gas turbine 100B includes a suction unit 101B, an operation unit 102B, and a discharge unit (chimney) 103B. By the use of air sucked by the suction unit 101B, inflammable gas is burned in the operation unit 102B so as to rotate a turbine to generate a driving force, thereby rotating a compressor 110A. The exhaust gas is discharged from the chimney 103B. The gas compressed by the compressor 110A is supplied to the air fin cooler 100A. The operation unit 102B shown in FIG. 3B may be a reactor which causes oxidation reforming reaction.
In the air fin cooler 100A, discharged gas heated by the compressor 110 is cooled in a heat exchanger 102A by using air sucked through a suction unit 101A (not shown) provided at the bottom of the air fin cooler 100A and is discharged to a discharge unit 103A (not shown) provided at the top of the air fin cooler 100A. The temperature of the compressed gas cooled by the air fin cooler 100A is decreased in a cooler 120 due to decompression and expansion, and then, the compressed gas cools a subject medium. The decompressed and heated gas is again returned to the compressor 110A. In an embodiment, the subject medium to be cooled is, for example, a hydrocarbon gas, such as methane or ethane, and is cooled in the cooler 120 and is thereby liquefied.
The air utilizing apparatus has been discussed through illustration of one of the air fin cooler and the gas turbine. However, the air utilizing apparatus may be a liquefaction plant for liquefying a hydrocarbon gas, including an air fin cooler and a gas turbine. Hereinafter, an embodiment of the weather predicting apparatus or the weather predicting method through illustration of an air fin cooler, a gas turbine, or a liquefaction plant will be described. However, an embodiment of the present invention encompasses an air fin cooler, a gas turbine, and a liquefaction plant based on a layout designed by the weather predicting apparatus or the weather predicting method.
FIG. 3C illustrates another specific example of the air utilizing apparatus. As an example of the air utilizing apparatus, a wind power generator 100C is shown. Propellers of the wind power generator 100C correspond to a suction unit 101C and a discharge unit 103C, and a motor corresponds to an operation unit 102C.
5. Reproduction of Weather Information Around Air Utilizing Apparatus
FIG. 4 illustrates an example of wide-area weather information. In wide-area weather information A100 shown in FIG. 4, an area in which the air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed is shown. Reference numeral 1100 designates a coastline. The left side of the coastline 1100 in the plane of the drawing is the sea, and the right side thereof is the land. FIG. 5 illustrates an example of narrow-area weather information. FIG. 5 illustrates an area for which weather simulations are conducted, and the area is partitioned into a plurality of zones A1 through A15 in order to conduct weather simulations, and each zone corresponds to a calculation grid. For example, if the grid resolution is 9 km, the calculation zone is 549 km×549 km. If the grid resolution is 3 km, the calculation zone is 93 km×93 km. If the grid resolution is 1 km, the calculation zone is 549 km×549 km. Accordingly, in these zones A1 through A15, estimation points are set in a grid pattern at intervals of 1 km through 9 km in the north-south direction and the east-west direction.
The air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed, as shown in FIG. 5, and in order to obtain the temperature or the direction of the wind in the zone in which the air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed, the processor 12 generates narrow-area weather information items A1 through A16 from the wide-area weather information A100 by solving partial differential equations expressing weather information based on weather analysis models.
FIG. 6 illustrates an example of meteorological field information. The processor 12 conducts computational fluid analysis on the narrow-area weather information item A16 shown in FIG. 6, thereby calculating meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the zones of narrow-area weather information. After calculating the meteorological field information concerning the zone A15, by using the meteorological field information concerning the zone A15 as an initial value, the processor 12 may determine detailed meteorological field information around the air utilizing apparatus 100 by using fluid dynamic models (CFD models). In this case, the detailed meteorological field information can be determined with a resolution in increments of 0.5 m, which is much smaller than the grid resolution (for example, 1 km) used in weather simulations.
The meteorological field information concerning the target zone A15 in which the air utilizing apparatus 100 is placed can be determined by using fluid dynamic models. Thus, precise data taking the configurations of buildings into consideration can be obtained. Examples of fluid dynamic models are K˜ε, LES, and DNS.
It is sufficient that a computer of this embodiment obtains detailed data of meteorological field information only concerning the target zone, and thus, it is not necessary to conduct analysis for all the zones A2 through A15 by using CFD models. Accordingly, a lot of computation times taken by conducting analysis using CFD models are not necessary, and CFD analysis is conducted only for the target zone, thereby improving the precision and decreasing the processing time.
Reference numeral 320 shown in FIG. 6 designates a recirculating flow of exhaust gas. By conducting CFD analysis, the flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to and recirculates in the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus can be calculated and clarified, which has not been clarified by conducting weather simulations. By the use of the recirculating flow, it can be determined which degree of temperature margin is to be taken for temperature data, which will be discussed later. Additionally, the recirculating flow is clarified, and thus, a suitable location of the air utilizing apparatus can be determined.
Moreover, for example, if required observation data, such as temperature data and wind direction data, is available since there is, for example, an aerodrome in A3 shown in FIG. 5, a set of items of first narrow-area weather information may be recalculated by using such data as input values. With this arrangement, it is possible to improve the precision of weather simulations by using available local data.
Topographical features of the zone A16 in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed may be different from those described in weather information due to a reason of one of land leveling, land use, or equipment installation. Even in such a case, a set of items of first narrow-area weather information may be recalculated on the basis of topographical information reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling, land use, and equipment installation caused by placing the air utilizing apparatus. With this arrangement, it is possible to precisely simulate weather conditions after the air utilizing apparatus is placed.
6. Temperature Cumulative Distribution Around Air Utilizing Apparatus
FIG. 7A illustrates an example of temperature data and an example of wind speed data obtained from narrow-area weather information. The narrow-area weather information is information which has been obtained, for example, over the three years, and data in the year of 2009 is shown as an example in FIG. 7.
FIG. 7B illustrates a temperature cumulative distribution obtained from temperature data of narrow-area weather information. FIG. 7C illustrates a temperature exceedance probability distribution obtained from temperature data of narrow-area weather information. The processor 12 generates such items of data. For example, the temperature obtained by adding a temperature margin 2° C. to the temperature at which the cumulative probability is 50% or higher in the temperature cumulative distribution, or the temperature obtained by adding a temperature margin 2° C. to the temperature at which the exceedance probability is smaller than 50% in the temperature exceedance probability distribution is set to be the design temperature for designing the temperature utilizing apparatus 100.
FIG. 8 illustrates an example of the relationship between the amount of liquefied hydrocarbon gas and the design temperature. The design temperature of the temperature utilizing apparatus 100 is a temperature for satisfying a predetermined level of performance. Accordingly, if the temperature reaches or exceeds the design temperature, the performance of the temperature utilizing apparatus 100 is likely to be sharply dropped. For example, if, in the example in FIG. 3, the air fin cooler 100A is designed under the design temperature shown in FIG. 8, when the outside air temperature exceeds the design temperature, the amount of liquefied hydrocarbon gas is sharply decreased, thereby failing to satisfy a predetermined level of performance. In the weather predicting apparatus according to this embodiment, actual temperatures are precisely simulated. Thus, even if the air utilizing apparatus 100 is designed in an environment without measured data, the design temperature can be obtained by predicting the outside air temperature, thereby making it possible to design an air utilizing apparatus exhibiting a desired level of performance.
7. Wind Rose around Air Utilizing Apparatus
FIG. 9 is a wind rose obtained from wind direction data of narrow-area weather information. A wind rose is a diagram illustrating the frequencies of wind directions and wind speeds in certain directions at a certain location over a certain period. The cumulative frequency is higher as the wind direction data extends further in the radial direction. The wind speeds are also indicated by mesh patterns. The wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency obtained in this case is called a prevailing wind direction. In FIG. 9, the prevailing wind direction is denoted by 300. A cardinal direction symbol 310 corresponds to the prevailing wind direction 300. The drawings discussed below show that the south (S) in the cardinal direction symbol is the prevailing wind direction.
The air utilizing apparatus shown in FIG. 3 is generated on the basis of the design temperature or the prevailing wind direction generated described above.
8. Layout in Which Air Utilizing Apparatus is Arranged and Air Utilizing Apparatus on the Basis of the Layout
FIGS. 10A and 10B illustrate the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and air fin coolers. Air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 shown in FIG. 10A are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the air fin cooler 100A-1 located on the windward side will be sucked by a suction unit of the air fin cooler 100A-2 located on the leeward side. If the air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 are arranged in this manner, the air fin cooler 100A-2 utilizes heated discharged gas as a coolant gas, and thus, it is unable to perform desired heat exchange, thereby failing to satisfy a predetermined level of performance, as shown in FIG. 8.
Accordingly, an air fin cooler is not arranged on the leeward side in the wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency in the generated wind rose, which would otherwise cause the air fin cooler to suck exhausted gas. As a result, the above-described inconvenience can be avoided. That is, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, air fin coolers are arranged in a layout such that gas discharged from a discharge unit located on the windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit located on the leeward side.
The air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 shown in FIG. 10B are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from the discharge unit of the air fin cooler 100A-1 located on the windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of the air fin cooler 100A-2 located on the leeward side. If the air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 are arranged in this manner, the air fin cooler 100A-2 can satisfy a predetermined level of performance. After calculating the prevailing wind direction, the processor 14 generates and outputs layout data 400A indicating that the air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from the discharge unit of the air fin cooler 100A-1 will not be sucked by the suction unit of the air fin cooler 100A-2 located on the leeward side.
FIGS. 11A and 11B illustrate the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and gas turbines. Gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 shown in FIG. 11A are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1 located on the windward side will be sucked by a suction unit of the gas turbine 100B-2 located on the leeward side. If the gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 are arranged in this manner, the gas turbine 100B-2 is likely to utilize heated discharged gas as a suction gas, and thus, it is unable to obtain a desired output.
Accordingly, a gas turbine is not arranged on the leeward side in the wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency in the generated wind rose, which would otherwise cause the gas turbine to suck exhausted gas. As a result, the above-described inconvenience can be avoided. That is, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, gas turbines are arranged in a layout such that gas discharged from a discharge unit located on the windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit located on the leeward side.
The gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 shown in FIG. 11B are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from the discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1 located on the windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of the gas turbine 100B-2 located on the leeward side. If the gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 are arranged in this manner, the gas turbine 100B-2 can satisfy a predetermined level of performance. After calculating the prevailing wind direction, the processor 14 generates and outputs layout data 400B indicating that the gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2 are arranged such that gas discharged from the discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1 will not be sucked by the suction unit of the gas turbine 100B-2 located on the leeward side in the prevailing wind direction 300.
FIGS. 12A and 12B illustrate the relationship between the prevailing wind direction and liquefaction plants, each including a gas turbine and an air fin cooler. Liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 shown in FIG. 12A are configured such that gas discharged from the air fin coolers 100A-1 and 100A-2 is sucked by the gas turbines 100B-1 and 100B-2, respectively. The liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 shown in FIG. 12A are also configured with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the liquefaction plant 100C-1 located on the windward side in the prevailing wind direction 300 is sucked by a suction unit of the liquefaction plant 100C-1 located on the leeward side in the prevailing wind direction 300. If the liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 are arranged in this manner, the liquefaction plant 100C-1 is likely to utilize heated discharged gas as a coolant gas, and thus, it is unable to obtain a desired level of performance.
Accordingly, a liquefaction plant is not arranged on the leeward side in the wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency in the generated wind rose, which would otherwise cause the liquefaction plant to suck exhausted gas. As a result, the above-described inconvenience can be avoided. That is, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, liquefaction plants are arranged in a layout such that gas discharged from a discharge unit located on the windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit located on the leeward side.
The liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 shown in FIG. 11B are arranged with respect to the prevailing wind direction 300 such that gas discharged from the discharge unit of the liquefaction plant 100C-1 located on the windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of the liquefaction plant 100C-2 located on the leeward side. If the liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 are arranged in this manner, the liquefaction plants 100C-2 can satisfy a predetermined level of performance. After calculating the prevailing wind direction, the processor 14 generates and outputs layout data 400C indicating that the liquefaction plants 100C-1 and 100C-2 are arranged such that gas discharged from the discharge unit of the gas turbine 100B-1 located on the windward side will not be sucked by the suction unit of the liquefaction plant 100C-2 located on the leeward side.
On the basis of items of the layout data 400A, 400B, 400C, air fin coolers, gas turbines, and liquefaction plants, respectively, are manufactured or built. Then, the air utilizing apparatus of this embodiment can satisfy a desired level of performance.
9. Flowchart of Temperature Analysis and Design
FIG. 13 illustrates an example of a flowchart of temperature analysis and design. The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes the weather analysis program to perform the following processing. The processor 14 selects, from a weather database including a plurality of items of weather information having at least temperature data related to times and areas, a set of items of weather information related to an area containing a location at which an air utilizing apparatus is placed and a plurality of times over a certain period (S101).
The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes the weather analysis program to perform the following processing. By solving differential equations expressing weather information based on weather analysis models by using each item of the weather information as input data, a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related to areas smaller than the area corresponding to the above-described weather information is generated (S102).
The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes the weather analysis program to perform processing for selecting, from among the set of items of first narrow-area weather information, a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus (S103). The processor 14 executes the design temperature calculating program to perform the following processing. In order to calculate the design temperature of the air utilizing apparatus, the processor 14 generates a temperature cumulative frequency distribution or a temperature exceedance probability distribution over a certain period by using temperature data included in the set of items of second narrow-area weather information (S104).
In the generation processing (S104), the design temperature may be calculated by one of a step of calculating, from meteorological field information, the temperature at which the cumulative frequency exceeds at least 50%, a step of calculating, from meteorological field information, the temperature at which the exceedance probability is at least smaller than 50%, and a step of adding a temperature margin to the temperature at which the cumulative frequency exceeds 50% or the temperature at which the exceedance probability is smaller than 50%.
The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes the computational fluid analysis program to perform the following processing. The processor 14 computes the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations so as to calculate meteorological field information. Then, the processor 14 calculates a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to and recirculates in the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus (S105). Thus, on the basis of the recirculating flow, the temperature margin for the temperature obtained by the weather simulations can be determined.
10. Flowchart of Wind-Direction Analysis and Design
FIG. 14 is a flowchart of temperature analysis and design. Steps S201 through S203 shown in FIG. 14 respectively correspond to steps S101 through S103 of FIG. 13. The processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes the wind-rose generating program to perform the following processing. In order to determine the direction in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed, the processor 14 calculates a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction data contained in the set of items of second narrow-area weather information (S204). Further, the processor 14 of the weather predicting apparatus 90 executes the layout output program to perform the following processing. The processor 14 generates, on the basis of the calculated wind direction, a layout in which an air utilizing apparatus is arranged in the above-described area such that gas discharged from a discharge/exhaust unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on the windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on the leeward side.
After step (S204), the processor 14 executes the computational fluid analysis program to perform the following processing. The processor 14 computes the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations so as to calculate meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the areas corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information. Then, the processor 14 calculates, by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to and recirculates in the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus (S205). Thus, on the basis of the recirculating flow, the optimal arrangement of a temperature utilizing apparatus can be determined.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail, it should be understood that the various changes, substitutions, and alterations could be made hereto without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

Claims

1. A weather predicting method for predicting the weather by conducting weather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, and a reactant, the weather predicting method comprising:

selecting, from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at least wind direction data and which is related to times and areas, a plurality of sets of the items of weather information related to a plurality of times over a fixed period concerning a first area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed;

by solving, with the use of the selected plurality of sets of the items of weather information as input data, differential equations expressing the weather information based on analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, generating a plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weather information related to a plurality of second areas which are disposed within the first area and which are smaller than the first area;

selecting a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning the second area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among the generated plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weather information; and

calculating a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction data contained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information in order to determine a direction in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed.

2. The weather predicting method according to claim 1, wherein

on the basis of the calculated wind direction, a layout in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a leeward side is generated.

3. The weather predicting method according to claim 1, wherein

a step of generating the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information further includes:

recalculating the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating at least one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in the area corresponding to the weather information.

4. The weather predicting method according to claim 1, further comprising:

calculating meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information by computing the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations; and

calculating, by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus.

5. The weather predicting method according to claim 1, further comprising:

recalculating, if topographical features of an area in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical features described in the weather information due to a reason of one of land leveling, land use, and equipment installation,

the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information on the basis of topographical information reflecting a result of associated one of the land leveling, the land use, and the equipment installation.

6. The weather predicting method according to claim 1, wherein

the first narrow-area weather information and the second narrow-area weather information are three-dimensional data, and indicate at least one of wind direction, wind speed, turbulence energy, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, humidity, and temperature.

7. A weather predicting apparatus for predicting the weather by conducting weather simulations in order to design an air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source, and a reactant, the weather predicting apparatus comprising:

a storage section that stores therein a set of items of weather information obtained from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at least wind direction data and which is related to times and areas, the set of items of weather information related to a plurality of times over a fixed period concerning a first area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed; and

a processor that selects a plurality of sets of the items of weather information, generates a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related to a plurality of second areas which are disposed within the first area and which are smaller than the first area by solving, with the use of the selected plurality of sets of the items of weather information as input data, differential equations expressing the weather information based on analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, selects a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning the second area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus from among the generated plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weather information, and calculates a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency by using wind direction data contained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information in order to determine a direction in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed.

8. The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7, wherein

on the basis of the calculated wind direction, the processor generates a layout in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed in an area such that gas discharged from a discharge unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a windward side will not be sucked by a suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus located on a leeward side.

9. The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7, wherein

the processor recalculates the set of the items of first narrow-area weather information by using observation data indicating at least one of a wind direction, a wind speed, and a temperature in the area corresponding to the weather information.

10. The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7, wherein

the processor calculates meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information by computing the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations, and calculates, by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus.

11. The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7 wherein the processor:

recalculates, if topographical features of an area in which the air utilizing apparatus is placed are different from topographical features described in the weather information due to a reason of one of land leveling, land use, and equipment installation,

12. The weather predicting apparatus according to claim 7, wherein

13. An air utilizing apparatus which is placed outdoors under the influence of surrounding weather conditions and which utilizes air as one of a heating energy source and a reactant, the air utilizing apparatus comprising:

a suction unit that sucks the air;

an operation unit that performs one of heat exchange and reaction by using the air sucked by the suction unit; and

a discharge unit that discharges gas emitted through one of operations of heat exchange and reaction, wherein:

from a plurality of items of weather information which includes at least wind direction data and which is related to times and areas, a plurality of sets of the items of weather information related to a plurality of times over a fixed period concerning a first area containing a location at which the air utilizing apparatus is placed are selected;

by solving, with the use of the selected plurality of sets of the items of weather information as input data, differential equations expressing the weather information based on analysis models used for conducting weather simulations, a set of items of first narrow-area weather information related to a plurality of second areas which are disposed within the first area and which are smaller than the first area is generated;

a set of items of second narrow-area weather information concerning an area containing the location of the air utilizing apparatus is selected from among the generated plurality of sets of the items of first narrow-area weather information; and

the air utilizing apparatus is placed in the area on the basis of a wind direction having the highest cumulative frequency calculated by using wind direction data contained in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information.

14. The air utilizing apparatus according to claim 13, wherein

the air utilizing apparatus is placed such that gas discharged from the discharge unit located on a windward side indicated in the wind direction data included in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information will not be sucked by the suction unit located on a leeward side indicated in the wind direction data included in the set of the items of second narrow-area weather information.

15. The air utilizing apparatus according to claim 13, wherein:

meteorological field information concerning an area smaller than the area corresponding to the second narrow-area weather information is calculated by computing the second narrow-area weather information by using three-dimensional fluid dynamic equations, and by using the meteorological field information, a flow in which heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus is returned to the suction unit of the air utilizing apparatus is calculated; and

the air utilizing apparatus is placed such that the heated air discharged from the air utilizing apparatus will not be returned to the suction unit.