JPH0546588A - Method for geometric prediction of 1/f fluctuating waveform and display device thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To facilitate the geometric estimation of the 1/f fluctuating waveform intentionally and systematically on a firm basis. CONSTITUTION:A straight line is drawn passing two aimed extremal points P and C of the waveform in parallel to a lateral axis, a P and a C array are set as spot arrays having internal periods based upon the axiom of the internal periods of the fluctuations, and straight lines PC1, PC2..., P1C, P1C1..., and P2C, P2C1... connecting them mutually are regarded as prediction lines. Further, a triangle ABC which has its vertex at the aimed extremal point C and has two oblique line passing other aimed extremal points a and b is constituted, its base is made parallel to the lateral axis and equalized to the internal period length 1, and the sides of this triangle are regarded as prediction lines. Further, a leading line obtained by horizontally shifting the fluctuating waveform by the internal period length is used for prediction.

Description

【発明の詳細な説明】Detailed Description of the Invention

【０００１】[0001]

【産業上の利用分野】本発明は１／ｆ揺らぎ波形（以下
に揺らぎと言う）の進行方向や、極大点や極小点（極
点）の値（レベルとも言う）ならびに発生時期の予測を
行なう各産業分野に利用される。揺らぎは次の引用文献
表・表１の（１），（２）に掲げられているように、身
近かな所から宇宙自然界一般の諸現象に見られ、関連産
業分野には気象予報事業や株式市場などがある。なお１
／ｆは文献（１）Ｐ２１２に示されたようにある幅をも
ち、正確に１／ｆということではない。BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION The present invention predicts the advancing direction of 1 / f fluctuation waveforms (hereinafter referred to as fluctuations), the values of maximum and minimum points (also called levels), and the timing of occurrence. Used in the industrial field. As shown in (1) and (2) of the cited reference table / Table 1 below, fluctuations are seen in various phenomena in the general space natural world from familiar places, and related industry fields include weather forecasting business and stocks. There is a market. 1
/ F has a certain width as shown in P212 of Reference (1), and is not exactly 1 / f.

【０００２】[0002]

【表１】 [Table 1]

【０００３】梅や桜の開花時期の変動の中長期予測に太
陽黒点の活動周期に注目する向きもあるようだが正確な
予測は無理である。黒点周期は１１年と言われるが、文
献（３），（４）によれば８〜１７年と変動する。この
周期は年毎の値をいれて作った年足の波形図について、
レベルの違う山と山との間隔に見られる凡その周期であ
る。これを１１年とするなら文献（５）をもとに作成で
きる月足の波形図では１１ヶ月、また図１に示す文献
（３）の日足の波形図では１１日と言える。むしろ文献
（４）の図を見れば非常に雑ではあるが十年，百年，千
年に各一山と１０のｎ乗進的な周期が認められよう。し
かしこのような雑な周期によって有効な幾何学的な予測
は困難である。大地震や大噴火の予想で何十年の周期だ
から今いつ起ってもおかしくない等の無責任な言葉が聞
かれるが、誰も心配していない。There is a tendency to pay attention to the activity cycle of sunspots in the medium- to long-term prediction of changes in flowering time of plums and cherry trees, but accurate prediction is impossible. The sunspot cycle is said to be 11 years, but it varies from 8 to 17 years according to literatures (3) and (4). This cycle is a waveform chart of the annual bar made by inserting the value for each year,
It is a general cycle that can be seen in the intervals between mountains of different levels. If this is 11 years, it can be said that it is 11 months in the waveform chart of the monthly bar that can be created based on the literature (5), and 11 days in the daily chart of the literature (3) shown in FIG. Rather, if you look at the figure in reference (4), it is very rough, but in 10 years, 100 years, and 1000 years, one mountain and 10 n-ary cycles can be recognized. However, such a rough cycle makes it difficult to make effective geometric predictions. Irresponsible words are heard, such as a big earthquake or a major eruption, which is a cycle of several decades, so it's okay that it should happen anytime now, but no one is worried.

【０００４】従来の移動平均による予測は平均という遅
行性に難点がある。また、株式市場のチャート屋の予想
について文献（６）のマンデルブロは「株価の変動は幾
何学の問題を提示している……勿論これは半分冗談で、
彼等はチャートの幾何学的な形から株価の未来を予測で
きると主張しているが実際は役立たない……市場の過去
の状態は全く無価値である」として揺らぎの強い自己相
関を無視している。つまり、強い自己相関をもつ揺らぎ
の幾何学的波形構造を追求して役立てようとする気配す
らない。The conventional prediction using the moving average has a drawback in that the average is lagging. Regarding the forecast of the charter in the stock market, Mandelbrot in (6) said, "The fluctuation of stock prices presents a problem of geometry ... Of course, this is a half joke,
They claim that they can predict the future of stock prices from the geometrical shape of the chart, but they are actually useless ... the past state of the market is completely worthless. "Ignoring the strongly fluctuating autocorrelation. There is. In other words, there is no sign of pursuing and utilizing the geometrical wave structure of fluctuations with strong autocorrelation.

【０００５】文献（７）の解説によると、マンデルブロ
は株価の変動が時間的にフラクタルであるとしている。
また、文献（７）は揺らぎがフラクタルであることを強
く予想している。確かに市井のチャート屋は株価の年
足，月足，週足，日足，更には５分足のチャートとすべ
てにわたって同じ姿の波形を見ている。揺らぎは一般に
は単純な一価関数であるからその幾何学的なフラクタル
構造は極めて簡単なものと思われる。また凡その周期性
を示しているから、揺らぎの本質にはその波形構成に関
し、観察単位に直結した確固たる周期性の規範を内在さ
せているものと、本発明者は帰納し、一つの公理を文献
（８）に発表した。表題は１／ｆ揺らぎの波形構成に関
する一公理であるが、簡単に、揺らぎの内在周期の公理
と言うことにする。内在周期はｕで表し、観察単位又は
足の３０倍である。このような内在周期を基礎とした幾
何学的予測方法は未だ行なわれていない。According to the explanation in the reference (7), Mandelbrot states that fluctuations in stock prices are fractal in time.
In addition, reference (7) strongly predicts that the fluctuation is fractal. Certainly, Ichii's chart shop sees the same waveforms on the charts of stock prices, such as yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, and even 5-minute charts. Fluctuation is generally a simple monovalent function, so its geometrical fractal structure seems to be extremely simple. Further, since it shows roughly the periodicity, the inventor of the present invention concludes that the essence of the fluctuation inherently has a fixed normative periodicity directly connected to the observation unit with respect to its waveform configuration. Published in reference (8). The title is one axiom regarding the waveform configuration of 1 / f fluctuation, but it will be briefly referred to as the axiom of the inherent cycle of fluctuation. The intrinsic cycle is represented by u, which is 30 times the observation unit or foot. Geometric prediction methods based on such intrinsic cycles have not yet been performed.

【０００６】[0006]

【発明が解決しようとする課題】本発明の課題は、マン
デルブロが可能性を否定した揺らぎの外観的な幾何学的
な形による波形の未来予測を、可能とすることにある。SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The object of the present invention is to enable future prediction of waveforms by the external geometrical shape of fluctuations, which Mandelbrot denied the possibility.

【０００７】[0007]

【課題を解決するための手段】請求項１，２に関し、文
献（９）から引用した株価グラフ図２により手段を説明
する。第１の手段として揺らぎの極大点および／または
極小点（極点）の２つに着目し、それぞれにその極点を
通り横軸に平行な直線（水平線）を引きＡＲ線と名づ
け、例えば点Ｐを通るＡＲ線をＰＡＲと言う。第２の手
段としてＡＲ線上に内在周期間隔で点列を設定する。Ｐ
ＡＲ上にＰ点列_２Ｐ，_１Ｐ……、ＧＡＲ上にＧ点列
_１Ｇ，Ｇ……、ＤＡＲ上にＦ点列Ｆ，_２Ｆ……を示す。
点列の点を内在周期点と言う。内在周期点は必ずしもそ
のＡＲ線の極点を含まず、これを含む内在周期点列と同
一ＡＲ線上で共存する。その例はＤＡＲ上のＤ点列とＦ
点列に見られる。図２は週足であるから内在周期ｕは３
０週である。内在周期ｕと観察範囲Ｒとの関係でｕ＜Ｒ
のときは点間隔ｕは適宜に３ｕ，９ｕ，２７ｕ……に代
え、ｕ＞Ｒのときは３分のｕ，９分のｕ，２７分のｕ…
…に代える。これら代替点列も内在周期点列といい代替
の周期長は一般にｌで表す。第３の手段として２つの内
在周期点列の両者の点を通る直線を引き予測線と名づけ
る。予測線が過去を通る部分を確認線と言う。点Ｐ現在
でＰ_２Ｇ_２は予測線、Ｐ_２Ｇは確認線である。[Means for Solving the Problems] With respect to claims 1 and 2, the means will be described with reference to FIG. As a first means, paying attention to two points of fluctuation maximum and / or minimum (pole), draw a straight line (horizontal line) passing through the poles and parallel to the horizontal axis, and name them AR lines. The AR line that passes through is called PAR. As a second means, a series of points is set on the AR line at intervals of the internal cycle. P
P point sequence on AR ₂ P, ₁ P ..., G point sequence on GAR
₁ G, G ..., F point sequence F, ₂ F ... on DAR.
The points in the sequence of points are called intrinsic periodic points. The intrinsic periodic point does not necessarily include the pole point of the AR line and coexists with the intrinsic periodic point sequence including the same on the same AR line. An example is D point sequence on DAR and F
Seen in the dot sequence. Since FIG. 2 shows weekly feet, the intrinsic cycle u is 3
It is 0 weeks. In the relationship between the intrinsic cycle u and the observation range R, u <R
When u> R, the point interval u is appropriately changed to 3u, 9u, 27u ..., When u> R, u of 3 minutes, u of 9 minutes, u of 27 minutes ...
Replace with ... These alternate point sequences are also called intrinsic periodic point sequences, and the alternate cycle length is generally represented by 1. As a third means, a straight line passing through both points of the two intrinsic period points is drawn and named as a prediction line. The part where the prediction line passes through the past is called the confirmation line. As of point P, P ₂ G ₂ is a prediction line and P ₂ G is a confirmation line.

【０００８】請求項３は、例えば図２において揺らぎが
点Ｑを少し過ぎた点まで既知となったとき底値のレベル
を探る場合の予測線作図法であり、第１作図手段として
点Ｐから他の極点または内在周期点（極点等）を通る直
線ＰＱＳと、極点等Ｂを通る直線ＰＢＨを引きそれぞれ
を斜線と言う。第２作図手段は初等平面幾何学の初歩の
作図法により内在周期ｕまたはｌに等しい長さの底辺Ｆ
Ｆ_１を両斜線間に図示のように設定する。作図された三
角形ＰＦＦ_１を予測のｕ△（もしくはｌ△）といいＥｕ
△（もしくはＥｌ△）とかく。ｕ△はユーデルタ，Ｅｕ
△はオイデルタ，Ｅｌ△はｌが例えば３ｕのときはＥ３
ｕ△でオイ３デルタと読む。ｕ△は極点等を頂とし内在
周期を底とし斜辺が他の極点等を通過する三角形と定義
する。A third aspect of the present invention is, for example, a predictive line drawing method for searching the level of the bottom price when the fluctuation is known to a point just past the point Q in FIG. A straight line PQS passing through the pole point or the internal periodic point (pole point or the like) and a straight line PBH passing through the pole point B or the like are referred to as diagonal lines. The second drawing means uses the elementary drawing method of elementary plane geometry to draw a base F having a length equal to the internal period u or l.
Set F ₁ between the diagonal lines as shown. The drawn triangle PFF ₁ is called prediction uΔ (or lΔ) Eu
△ (or El △) anyway. u △ is Eudelta, Eu
△ is Eudelta, El △ is E3 when 1 is 3u, for example.
uΔ reads oi3delta. uΔ is defined as a triangle with a pole or the like as the top and an internal period as the bottom, and the hypotenuse passing through another pole or the like.

【０００９】請求項２，４および６の表示装置を実現す
る手段は、第１，第２および第３の手段ならびに第１作
図および第２作図手段を、既知あるいは未知の適宜の方
法により表示器の表示方式に適した形式の入力データと
して構成すれば充分である。The means for realizing the display device according to claims 2, 4 and 6 is a display device in which the first, second and third means and the first drawing means and the second drawing means are provided by known or unknown suitable methods. It is sufficient to configure the input data in a format suitable for the display method of.

【００１０】[0010]

【作用】請求項１，２に関し第１の手段で引いたＡＲ線
はその通過する極点の値を過去と未来にわたって示す。
極点Ｐはそれが示現される前に既にそこに存在していた
と仮定すると、揺らぎの先端が未だ点Ｐに達しない前は
これを吸引するアトラクターとして作用し、到達するや
否やこれを遠ざけるリペラーとして作用する。この様に
作用する点をサドルと名づける。株式の大天井や大底の
点であれば、それら極点の値は市場参加者の成功失敗の
強い記憶と共にＡＰ線により伝送される。市場心理から
ＡＲ線上のすべての点はサドル的に作用して揺らぎの先
端がその横軸値に達する迄は吸引し、達するや否や遠ざ
けるように作用する。第２の手段でＡＲ線上に設定した
内在周期点の各点はその線上の他の点より一般にサドル
的作用が強い。このことは第３の手段で引いた予測線や
確認線が揺らぎの極点等や屈折点や屈曲部などを通るこ
とが多いことで検証される。つまり、揺らぎは内在周期
を介して強い自己相関により波形構成をなしている。With respect to claims 1 and 2, the AR line drawn by the first means shows the value of the passing pole over the past and the future.
Assuming that the pole P was already there before it was revealed, it acts as an attractor that attracts the tip of the fluctuation before it reaches the point P, and moves away as soon as it reaches it. Acts as. The point that acts in this way is called the saddle. For large ceilings and large bottoms of stocks, the values of those extremes are transmitted by the AP line with a strong memory of the success and failure of market participants. From the point of view of the market, all points on the AR line act like a saddle, sucking until the tip of the fluctuation reaches the value on the horizontal axis, and moving away as soon as it reaches it. Each point of the internal periodic point set on the AR line by the second means generally has a stronger saddle-like action than the other points on the line. This is verified by the fact that the prediction line and confirmation line drawn by the third means often pass through the poles of fluctuation, the refraction point, the bending portion, and the like. That is, the fluctuation has a waveform configuration with strong autocorrelation through the intrinsic period.

【００１１】第１，第２の作図手段で構成したＥｕ△Ｐ
ＦＦ_１の底辺ＦＦ_１の予測能は、その底辺と同レベルの
底辺をもつ別のＥｕ△_１ＦＦ，Ｅｕ△Ｐ_２Ｆ_１Ｆ等が構
成されることにより強められ、更に点Ｑより先へ揺らぎ
が進行するに伴いＥｕ△Ｑ_２Ｆ_１Ｆ，Ｅｕ△Ｑ_１ＦＦ，
Ｅｕ△ＱＦＦ_１も構成され、Ｆ点列の水平線が底値のＡ
Ｒ線となるであろうとの予想がいっそう強くなる。な
お、_１ＦＴ間やＴＤ間の揺らぎは回帰分析などによると
１本の傾向線にされてしまうが、本発明によれば、Ｅｕ
△群の斜辺として幾本にも分解されて役立てられる。EuΔP composed of first and second drawing means
Predictive ability of the base FF ₁ of FF ₁ is another Eu △ ₁ FF with the bottom of the base at the same level, Eu △ _P 2 _{F 1} is strengthened by F or the like is configured, the prior addition point Q As the fluctuation progresses, EuΔQ ₂ F ₁ F, EuΔQ ₁ FF,
EuΔQFF _{1 is} also constructed, and the horizontal line of the F point sequence is the bottom price A
The expectation that it will be an R line will become stronger. It should be noted that fluctuations between ₁ FT and TD are made into one trend line according to regression analysis and the like, but according to the present invention, Eu
It can be used as a hypotenuse of the group by being disassembled into several pieces.

【００１２】請求項５の先導線は予測線や確認線と同様
いづれの線も線上の極点等は強いサドル的作用力をも
ち、強い予測能をもつ。図３にｕ及び３分のｕ先導線を
示す。The lead wire of claim 5 has a strong saddle-like action force at the poles and the like of each line as well as the prediction line and the confirmation line, and has a strong predictive ability. Figure 3 shows the u and 3 minute u leads.

【００１３】[0013]

【実施例】第１の実施例を図４に示す。図は平成３年５
月２４日〜６月８日の雲仙普賢岳の火砕流に関し気象庁
から入手した地震計出力記録に基づき作成した。次の表
２の左半４列は気象庁記録の一部分、右半２列は左半に
より本発明者が作成した２次データを示す。図の縦軸値
は地震計が毎時０〜６０分の間に開始した指示計の振切
れ時間（秒）幅の合計を示し、横軸は振切れ事象のあっ
た毎時の事象番号である。事象のなかった毎時は除外し
てある。EXAMPLE A first example is shown in FIG. The figure shows 1991
It was created based on the seismograph output records obtained from the Meteorological Agency regarding the pyroclastic flow of Unzen Fugendake from June 24th to June 8th. The following left half 4 column of Table 2 shows a part of the JMA record, and right half 2 column shows the secondary data which the present inventor created by the left half. The vertical axis value in the figure indicates the total of the shake-out time (second) width of the indicator started by the seismograph between 0 and 60 minutes per hour, and the horizontal axis is the event number of each shake-off event every hour. Every hour when there was no event is excluded.

【００１４】[0014]

【表２】 [Table 2]

【００１５】図４の点Ｘは死者の出た６月３日，点Ｙは
６月８日の大火砕流に対応し各極点等は多数のｕ△によ
って関連づけられている。点Ｘ以前の既知の極点等によ
るｕ△群は主なもので２ｕ△Ｂ_３Ｘ_１Ｘ，ｕ△_１Ｃ_３Ｘ
_２Ｘ，２ｕ△_１Ｃ_３Ｘ_１Ｘ，ｕ△Ｃ_３Ｘ_２Ｘ，ｕ△Ｃ_２
Ｘ_１Ｘ，ｕ△Ｃ_１ＸＸ，２ｕ△Ｌ_２ＸＸ，ｕ△Ｑ_３Ｘ_２
Ｘ，３ｕ△Ｑ_２ＸＸ_１，ｕ△_３Ｘ_２Ｃ_１Ｃ，２ｕ△_３Ｘ
_２ＣＣ，３ｕ△_２Ｘ_３ＱＱなどがある。それ故、点Ｘの
レベルと時期の予測の可能性は極めて高かったことを示
している。また、点Ｙ以前の既知の極点等により構成さ
れるｕ△群にはｕ△Ｃ_１ＹＹ，ｕ△_１Ｃ_２Ｙ_１Ｙ，２ｕ
△_３Ｙ_１ＬＬ_１，ｕ△ｙ_１ＬＬ，ｕ△ｙ_１ＬＬ_１，ｕ△
Ｌｙｙ_１等がある。従って点Ｙの早期予測の可能性も高
かった。The point X in FIG. 4 corresponds to the large pyroclastic flow on June 3 when the dead person appeared, and the point Y corresponds to the large pyroclastic flow on June 8, and each pole is associated with a large number of uΔ. The uΔ group consisting of known poles before the point X is mainly 2uΔB ₃ X ₁ X, uΔ ₁ C ₃ X.
₂ X, 2uΔ ₁ C ₃ X ₁ X, uΔC ₃ X ₂ X, u ΔC ₂
X ₁ X, uΔC ₁ XX, 2uΔL ₂ XX, uΔQ ₃ X ₂
X, 3uΔQ ₂ XX ₁ , uΔ ₃ X ₂ C ₁ C, 2uΔ ₃ X
₂ CC, 3uΔ ₂ X ₃ QQ, etc. Therefore, the possibility of predicting the level and timing of point X was extremely high. In addition, uΔC ₁ YY, uΔ ₁ C ₂ Y ₁ Y, 2u is included in the uΔ group formed by known poles before the point Y.
Δ ₃ Y ₁ LL ₁ , uΔy ₁ LL, uΔy ₁ LL ₁ , uΔ
There is Lyy ₁ etc. Therefore, the possibility of early prediction of the point Y was high.

【００１６】図４により点Ｙ以降それ以上の火砕流が発
生するか否かの予測には、点線で示すように点Ｘ，Ｙの
レベルを含むＥｕ△としてＥｕ△ｑＱＱ_１，Ｅｕ△ｑ_１
ＱＱ，Ｅｕ△ｌＬＬ_１，Ｅｕ△ｑ′_３Ｑ_２Ｑなどを構成
し、予想ＡＲ線として水平線ｑ′ＡＲを引く。この線上
の点が、点Ｙ以降の中規模火砕流の作る極点等と更に多
数のＥｕ△が構成できるか否か、事象の進行を見守る。
点Ｙ以降の記録は６月１９日早朝迄しか入手できなかっ
た。この間地震計の記録は小規模な点Ｗのレベル以下で
概ね低調に推移し、新聞報道によれば１９日午後中規模
火砕流が発生した模様である。このような中規模程度以
上の記録が逐次図４に記入されれば予測の可能性は高ま
る。また大規模火砕流はもう起らないと予測できれば住
民に迷惑な避難命令を出さなくてもすむ。今のところ小
規模のものしか起っていないからとて油断はできない。
小規模な点Ｗのあと僅か１〜２時間で大火砕流・点Ｙが
発生している。常時迅速な情勢判断が肝要である。小規
模とはいえ、点Ｗは突然の上昇である。移動平均では間
に合わない。このようなとき、図４に示した先導線が効
果的である。揺らぎが先導線の下にあるときは安心でき
るが、揺らぎの先端が先導線から首を出しかけたときは
要注意である。分単位で出されている地震計記録は即刻
予測に活用されることが望ましい。[0016] whether the prediction more pyroclastic later point Y by 4 _occurs, Eu △ qQQ 1 as Eu △ including point as indicated by a dotted line X, a level of Y, Eu △ _{q 1}
QQ, EuΔlLL ₁ , EuΔq ′ ₃ Q ₂ Q, etc. are constructed, and a horizontal line q′AR is drawn as an expected AR line. Whether or not points on this line can compose a larger number of EuΔ with the poles and the like created by the medium-scale pyroclastic flow after point Y, and watch the progress of the event.
Records after point Y were only available until early morning on June 19. During this time, the seismograph records remained generally below the level of the small point W, and newspaper reports indicate that a mid-scale pyroclastic flow occurred on the afternoon of the 19th. If such a medium-scale record or more is sequentially entered in FIG. 4, the possibility of prediction increases. Also, if it can be predicted that a large-scale pyroclastic flow will no longer occur, it will not be necessary to issue annoying evacuation orders to residents. So far, only small things have happened, so you can't be alert.
A large pyroclastic flow / point Y occurs within 1-2 hours after a small point W. It is essential to always make a quick decision on the situation. Though small, point W is a sudden rise. The moving average is too late. In such a case, the lead wire shown in FIG. 4 is effective. You can feel relieved when the fluctuation is under the lead wire, but be careful when the tip of the fluctuation goes out of the lead wire. It is desirable that the seismograph records issued in minutes are used for immediate prediction.

【００１７】第２の実施例を図５に示す。図は同時進行
の２の揺らぎを示し、文献（１０）長短金利逆転解説の
付図から波形のみ拡大転写した。１９７９年を現在時点
とし長期予測のため、今後１０年にわたり予測線のメッ
シュを掛けることができるが煩雑のためすべての予測線
は図示しない。短期グラフについて、頂点Ｐを通るＡＲ
線と鍋底の右端を通るＡＲ線とを引き、それぞれに内在
周期点を設定する。両点列の点を相互に結んでＥｕ△を
構成する。グラフは月足として内在周期は３０ヶ月であ
るが、観察の範囲が２０年と相当広いのでＥ３ｕ△も構
成する。それらの斜辺および底辺はすべて予測線であり
確認線でもある。それらは、長期金利グラフの重要変化
点を通り、例えばＥ３ｕ△Ｃ_{２ ２}ＰＰ_１の斜辺Ｃ_２
２Ｐは長期金利の過去との強い相関を確認している。ま
た長期金利グラフの頂点ＱおよびＬは短期金利のＣＡＲ
との間に、Ｅ３ｕ△Ｑ_２ＣＣ_１，Ｅ３ｕ△ＬＣ_１Ｃ_４が
構成され、その斜辺は短期金利グラフの要所を通ってい
る。上述は１９７９年に１０年間にわたる予測線を引い
たことになるが、時の経過とともに新しい極点に応じ、
逐次ＡＲ線を更新し予測線の修正更新を図る必要があろ
う。A second embodiment is shown in FIG. The figure shows two simultaneous fluctuations, and only the waveforms are enlarged and transcribed from the attached figure of the reversal of long and short interest rates in (10). Since 1979 is the current time, it is possible to multiply the prediction line mesh over the next 10 years for long-term prediction, but all prediction lines are not shown because of complexity. AR passing through the vertex P for short-term graph
Draw a line and the AR line that passes through the right end of the pan bottom, and set the internal periodic point for each. The points in both point sequences are connected to each other to form EuΔ. The graph has a monthly period of 30 months as a monthly bar, but since the range of observation is as wide as 20 years, E3uΔ is also constructed. The hypotenuse and the base are all prediction lines and confirmation lines. They pass through important points of change in the long-term interest rate graph, for example the hypotenuse C _{2 of} E3uΔC _{2 2} PP _1.
The 2P confirms a strong correlation with long-term interest rates. The vertices Q and L of the long-term interest rate graph are CARs for short-term interest rates.
, And E3uΔQ ₂ CC ₁ and E3uΔLC ₁ C ₄ are constructed, and the hypotenuse passes through the key points of the short-term interest rate graph. The above is a forecast line for 10 years in 1979, but according to the new pole with the passage of time,
It may be necessary to successively update the AR line and correct and update the prediction line.

【００１８】[0018]

【発明の効果】以上説明したように、本発明の幾何学的
予測方法は初等平面幾何の初歩の作図法によるのみで、
面倒な計算は全く不要である。予測線は揺らぎの確固た
る内在周期に基礎を置くため、計画的、組織的に引くこ
とができ、予測判断の改善，予測結果の評価に確たる據
り所をもつ。As described above, the geometric prediction method of the present invention is only based on the elementary drawing method of elementary plane geometry.
No complicated calculation is necessary. Since the prediction line is based on the firm internal cycle of fluctuation, it can be drawn systematically and systematically, and it has a certain point for improving prediction judgment and evaluating prediction results.

【図面の簡単な説明】[Brief description of drawings]

【図１】従来技術の説明ならびに要約書の構成の説明に
供す。FIG. 1 is provided for explaining a conventional technique and a structure of an abstract.

【図２】課題を解決するための手段ならびに作用の項の
説明に供す。FIG. 2 is used to explain the means for solving the problems and the operation section.

【図３】作用００１２項の説明に供す。FIG. 3 is used to explain the operation 0012.

【図４】第１の実施例の説明に供す。FIG. 4 is provided for explaining the first embodiment.

【図５】第２の実施例の説明に供す。FIG. 5 is used for explaining a second embodiment.

Claims (6)

【特許請求の範囲】[Claims] 【請求項１】 揺らぎの着目する極点等を通る水平線上
の内在周期点と、着目する他の極点等を通る水平線上の
内在周期点と、を通る直線を揺らぎの未来予測線とする
ことを特徴とする１／ｆ揺らぎ波形の幾何学的予測方
法。1. A future prediction line for fluctuations is defined by a straight line passing through an intrinsic periodic point on a horizontal line passing through a pole of interest of fluctuation or the like and an internal periodic point on a horizontal line passing through another pole of interest or the like. A geometrical prediction method of the characteristic 1 / f fluctuation waveform. 【請求項２】 請求項１の方法を入力とすることを特徴
とする表示装置。2. A display device using the method of claim 1 as an input. 【請求項３】 揺らぎの着目する極点等を頂点とし、底
辺を水平にかつ内在周期の長さに等しくとり、かつ両斜
辺がそれぞれに他の極点等を通るように三角形を作図す
ることを特徴とする１／ｆ揺らぎ波形の幾何学的予測方
法。3. A triangle is drawn such that a pole point or the like of the fluctuation is an apex, a base is horizontal and equal to the length of the internal cycle, and both hypotenuses pass through other poles or the like. A 1 / f fluctuation waveform geometric prediction method. 【請求項４】 請求項３の方法を入力とすることを特徴
とする表示装置。4. A display device using the method according to claim 3 as an input. 【請求項５】 揺らぎを内在周期の長さだけ水平に右へ
ずらせて先導線とし揺らぎと共に記録することを特徴と
する１／ｆ揺らぎ波形の幾何学的予測方法。5. A geometrical prediction method for a 1 / f fluctuation waveform, which comprises horizontally shifting the fluctuation to the right by the length of the intrinsic period and recording it as a lead wire together with the fluctuation. 【請求項６】 請求項５の記録を入力とすることを特徴
とする表示装置。6. A display device, wherein the record according to claim 5 is input.