JP3413473B2 - Train operation prediction device - Google Patents
Train operation prediction deviceInfo
- Publication number
- JP3413473B2 JP3413473B2 JP18580594A JP18580594A JP3413473B2 JP 3413473 B2 JP3413473 B2 JP 3413473B2 JP 18580594 A JP18580594 A JP 18580594A JP 18580594 A JP18580594 A JP 18580594A JP 3413473 B2 JP3413473 B2 JP 3413473B2
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- Japan
- Prior art keywords
- train
- station
- stop time
- time
- prediction device
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
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- Train Traffic Observation, Control, And Security (AREA)
Description
【産業上の利用分野】本発明は、列車の現在時刻以降の
運行状況を予測して、列車の運行予測ダイヤを作成する
列車運行管理システムに係り、特に、駅間走行時間と駅
停車時間から現在走行中の列車について現在時刻以降の
列車ダイヤを作成する機能を有する列車運行予測装置に
関する。BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a train operation management system for predicting an operation status of a train after a current time and creating an operation prediction diagram of a train, and in particular, from a running time between stations and a stop time of a station. The present invention relates to a train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running.
【従来の技術】従来の列車運行管理システムにおいて
は、予め過去に設定した駅標準停車時間と天候，曜日，
行先等による混雑度比係数に基づいて、駅での列車の予
測停車時間を求めていた(特開平５−２３８３９１号公
報)。BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION In the conventional train operation management system
Is the standard station stop time and weather set in the past, day of the week,
Based on the congestion ratio coefficient depending on the destination , train forecast at the station
The vehicle stop time was calculated (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 5-238391).
【発明が解決しようとする課題】上記特開平５−２３８
３９１号公報の技術では、過去に設定したデータのみに
基づいて列車の特定駅における停車時間を予測するよう
に構成されているので、常に変化する列車の運行状況に
応じた列車の停車時間を柔軟かつ正確には予測できない
という問題があった。本発明の目的は、常に変化する列
車の運行状況に応じた列車の停車時間を予測できる列車
運行予測装置を提供することである。 DISCLOSURE OF THE INVENTION Problems to be Solved by the Invention
The technology of Japanese Patent No. 391 is configured to predict the stop time of a train at a specific station based only on data set in the past, so that the stop time of a train can be flexibly changed according to the operating status of the train, which is constantly changing. And there was a problem that it couldn't be predicted accurately . The purpose of the invention is to have a constantly changing sequence
Trains that can predict the stop time of the train according to the operating status of the car
It is to provide an operation prediction device.
【課題を解決するための手段】本発明は、上記目的を達
成するために、駅間走行時間と駅停車時間から現在走行
中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する
機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、当該列車の当
日の運行データと、少なくとも先行列車の当該駅におけ
る実績停車時間と、当該列車およびその先行列車の環境
の相違とを考慮して、当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を
算出する演算手段を有する列車運行予測装置を提案す
る。 本発明は、また、駅間走行時間と駅停車時間から現
在走行中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作
成する機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、先行列
車の当該駅での実績停車時間と、当該列車および先行列
車の始発駅の相違に基づく混雑比との積として、当該列
車の当該駅予測停車時間を算出する演算手段を有する列
車運行予測装置を提案する。 本発明は、さらに、駅間走
行時間と駅停車時間から現在走行中の列車について現在
時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する機能を有する列車運行
予測装置において、先行列車の当該駅での実績停車時間
と、当該列車および先行列車の行先駅の相違に基づく混
雑比との積として、当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を算
出する演算手段を有する列車運行予測装置を提案する。
本発明は、駅間走行時間と駅停車時間から現在走行中の
列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する機能
を有する列車運行予測装置において、先行列車の当該駅
での実績停車時間と、当該列車および先行列車の列車間
隔に基づく混雑比との積として、当該列車の当該駅予測
停車時間を算出する演算手段を有する列車運行予測装置
を提案する。 本発明は、また、駅間走行時間と駅停車時
間から現在走行中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダ
イヤを作成する機能を有する列車運行予測装置におい
て、先行列車の当該駅での実績停車時間と、当該列車お
よび先行列車の始発駅の相違に基づく混雑比と、当該列
車および先行列車の行先駅の相違に基づく混雑比と、当
該列車および先行列車の列車間隔に基づく混雑比との積
として、当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を算出する演算
手段を有する列車運行予測装置を提案する。上記いずれ
かの列車運行予測装置において、前記演算手段は、当該
列車に先行する複数の先行列車の当該駅における実績停
車時間または予測停車時間の増減傾向に応じて、求めた
当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を修正する構成を採用し
てもよい。 The present invention achieves the above objects.
To formed, in train operation predicting apparatus having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for the train in the current traveling from the travel time and the station stop time between stations, of the train those
Daily operating data and at least the station of the preceding train
In consideration of the actual stop time and the difference in environment between the train and the preceding train ,
We propose a train operation prediction device that has calculation means for calculating
It The present invention is also a train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running from the running time between stations and the stop time at the station, and the actual stop time at the station of the preceding train and , as the product of the congestion ratio based on the difference in the starting station of the train and the preceding train, the train
A column having a calculation means for calculating the estimated stop time of the car
We propose a vehicle operation prediction device. The present invention is further a train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running from the inter-station travel time and the station stop time, and the actual stop time of the preceding train at the station. A train operation prediction device having a calculation means for calculating a predicted stop time of the train of the train as a product of a congestion ratio based on a difference in destination stations of the train and the preceding train is proposed.
The present invention, in a train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time from a train running time between stations and a train stop time, the actual stop time of the preceding train at the station, and Prediction of the station of the train as a product of the congestion ratio based on the train interval between the train and the preceding train
Train operation prediction device having a calculation means for calculating the stop time
To propose. The present invention is also a train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running from the running time between stations and the stop time at the station, and the actual stop time at the station of the preceding train and , the train you
A spare preceding train congestion ratio based on the difference in starting station of a congestion ratio based on the destination station differences of the train and preceding train, as the product of the congestion ratio based on the train interval of the trains, and preceding train, of the train A train operation prediction device having a calculation means for calculating the estimated station stop time is proposed. Any of the above
In the train operation prediction device, the calculating means is
Actual stop at the station of multiple preceding trains preceding the train
Calculated according to the increasing / decreasing trend of vehicle time or predicted stop time
Adopt a configuration that corrects the estimated stop time of the train station
May be.
【作用】上記構成の列車運行予測装置では、当該列車に
対する先行列車の当日の当該駅実績停車時間並びに当該
駅予測停車時間と当該列車および先行列車の置かれてい
る環境の相違を考慮して、当該列車の当該駅予測停車時
間求めることにより、常に変化する列車運行の状況に合
った列車の駅停車時間を予測できる。 上記構成の列車運
行予測装置では、当該列車に対する先行列車の当日の当
該駅実績停車時間並びに当該駅予測停車時間と当該列車
および先行列車の置かれている環境の相違を考慮して求
めた当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を、当該列車に先行
する複数の先行列車の当該駅における実績停車時間また
は予測停車時間の増減傾向に応じて修正するので、列車
の駅停車時間をより正確に予測できる。 [Action] In train operation predicting apparatus of the above configuration, taking into account the differences in the environment where the preceding train on the day of the station actual parking time and the station predicted stoppage time and the train and preceding train for the train, By obtaining the estimated station stop time of the train, it is possible to predict the station stop time of the train that matches the constantly changing train operation situation . The configuration of the train operation prediction apparatus preceding train on the day of the station actual parking time for the train and the station predicted stoppage time and the train
And the estimated stop time of the station of the train calculated in consideration of the difference in the environment where the preceding train is placed, the increase or decrease of the actual stop time or the predicted stop time of the preceding trains of the preceding trains The train stop time can be predicted more accurately because it is corrected according to .
【実施例】次に、図１ないし図１０を参照して、本発明
による列車運行予測装置の実施例を説明する。DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Next, referring to FIGS. 1 to 10, the present invention will be described.
An example of the train operation prediction device will be described.
【実施例１】図１は、本発明に係る列車運行予測装置の
一実施例の全体構成を示している。列車運行予測装置
は、列車運行予測部１００と、列車の運行計画である計
画ダイヤ１１０と、計画ダイヤ１１０をもとに実際に運
転した実績ダイヤ１２０と、列車運行予測装置により算
出された現在時刻以降の列車運行の予測ダイヤ１３０
と、ダイヤすじなどの予測ダイヤ作成に関連する情報を
表示する表示装置１０６と、キーボード等の入力装置１
０７とを有している。列車運行予測部１００は、予測ダ
イヤ作成に関する各種処理を実行する予測処理部１０１
と、先行列車の特定駅における実際の停車時間のデータ
が記憶される先行列車実績停車時間格納部１０２と、始
発駅の相違による列車の混雑比のデータが記憶される始
発駅混雑比格納部１０３と、行先駅の相違による列車の
混雑比のデータが記憶される行先駅混雑比格納部１０４
と、特定の列車の先行列車との間隔による列車の混雑比
のデータが格納される列車間隔混雑比格納部１０５とを
有している。図２は、本発明に係る列車運行予測装置の
現在時刻以降の列車運行を予測する処理手順を示すフロ
ーチャートである。 図３は、本発明に係る列車運行予測
装置による列車の運行予測の一例を示す図である。横軸
は時間を示し、縦軸は駅を示している。図３において、
３１１は先行列車の実績ダイヤすじを示し、３１２は先
行列車の現在時刻以降の予測ダイヤすじを示し、３２１
は当該列車の実績ダイヤすじを示し、３２２は当該列車
の現在時刻以降の予測ダイヤすじを示し、３３０は現在
時刻を示している。図４は、本発明に係る列車運行予測
装置による列車の運行予測の他の例を示す図である。横
軸は時間を示し、縦軸は駅を示している。図４におい
て、４１１は先行列車の実績ダイヤすじを示し、４１２
は先行列車の現在時刻以降の予測ダイヤすじを示し、４
２１は当該列車の現在時刻以降の予測ダイヤすじを示
し、４３０は現在時刻を示している。 図５は、始発駅混
雑比格納部に記憶されている先行列車と当該列車の始発
駅の相違による列車の混雑度比のデータを示し、図６
は、行先駅混雑比格納部に記憶されている先行列車と当
該列車の行先駅の相違による混雑度比のデータを示し、
図７は、列車間隔混雑比格納部に記憶されている先行列
車と当該列車の列車間隔による混雑比のデータを示して
いる。 図２の処理手順を参照して、図３に示すように、
先行列車が駅Ｂを既に出発した場合、当該列車の駅Ｂで
の予測停車時間の算出手順を説明する。はじめに、当該
列車の駅Ｂでの到着時刻を算出する(ステップ２００)。
図３の場合では、現在時刻においてまだ当該列車が駅Ｂ
に到着していないので、当該列車の駅Ａの発車時刻に駅
Ａ〜駅Ｂ間の計画ダイヤの走行時間を加えた値を当該列
車の駅Ｂにおける到着時刻とする。次に先行列車が現在
時刻において当該駅を既に発車したか判断する(ステッ
プ２０１)。図３の場合では先行列車は既に駅Ｂを発車
しているので、先行列車の駅Ｂにおける停車時間を実績
ダイヤ１２０より算出する(ステップ２０２)。次に駅Ｂ
での当該列車の予測停車時間Ｔを算出する(ステップ２
０４)。当該駅での予測停車時間Ｔは下記(１)式により
求める。
予測停車時間Ｔ＝先行列車の当該駅での停車時間
×始発駅の相違による混雑度比
×行先駅の相違による混雑度比
×列車間隔による混雑度比 …(１)
ここで、図５，図６，図７において先行列車の始発駅を
駅１，行先駅を駅３，当該列車の始発駅を駅２，行先駅
を駅４，先行列車および当該列車の列車間隔を３.５と
し、始発駅の相違による混雑度比をｂ，行先駅の相違に
よる混雑度比をｖ，列車間隔による混雑度比をｚとする
と、駅Ｂでの当該列車の予測停車時間Ｔは、
駅Ｂでの当該列車の予測停車時間Ｔ
＝先行列車の駅Ｂでの停車時間×ｂ×ｖ×ｚ …(２)
となる。次いで当該列車の当該駅Ｂでの発車時刻を算出
し、予測ダイヤの作成を終了する(ステップ２０５)。こ
こで図４に示すように現在時刻において先行列車がまだ
駅Ｂを出発していない場合の、当該列車の駅Ｂでの予測
停車時間の算出手順を図２の概略手順に沿って説明す
る。はじめに、当該列車の駅Ｂでの到着時刻を算出する
(ステップ２００)。図４の場合では、現在時刻におい
て、まだ当該列車が駅Ｂに到着していないので、当該列
車の駅Ａの発車時刻に駅Ａ〜駅Ｂ間の計画ダイヤ１１０
の走行時間を加えた値を当該列車の駅Ｂにおける到着時
刻とする。次に先行列車が現在時刻において当該駅Ｂを
既に発車したか否かを判断する(ステップ２０１)。図４
の場合では先行列車は現在時刻においてまだ駅Ｂを発車
していないので、先行列車の停車時間を予測ダイヤ１３
０より算出する(ステップ２０３)。次に駅Ｂでの当該列
車の予測停車時間を算出する(ステップ２０４)。ここ
で、図５，図６，図７において先行列車の始発駅を駅
２、行先駅を駅４、当該列車の始発駅を駅１、行先駅を
駅３、先行列車と当該列車の列車間隔を２.５とし、始
発駅の相違による混雑度比をｑ，行先駅の相違による混
雑度比をｙ，列車間隔による混雑度比をｚｚとすると、
駅Ｂでの当該列車の予測停車時間Ｔは、
駅Ｂでの当該列車の予測停車時間Ｔ＝
先行列車の駅Ｂの予測停車時間×ｑ×ｙ×ｚｚ…(３)
となる。次いで当該列車の当該駅Ｂでの発車時刻を算出
し、予測ダイヤの作成を終了する(ステップ２０５)。次
に本発明に係る列車運行予測装置の他の実施例を図８，
図９，図１０を参照して説明する。[Embodiment 1] FIG. 1 shows the overall configuration of an embodiment of a train operation prediction apparatus according to the present invention . The train operation predicting device actually operates a train operation predicting unit 100, a train schedule 110 that is a train operation plan, and a train schedule 110 based on the train schedule 110.
Calculated using the track record diagram 120 and the train operation prediction device
Prediction diagram 130 for train operation after the issued current time
And a display device 106 for displaying information related to the creation of a forecast timetable such as a timeline, and an input device 1 such as a keyboard.
And 07. The train operation prediction unit 100 is a prediction processing unit 101 that executes various processes related to the creation of a prediction timetable.
And a preceding train actual stop time storage unit 102 in which data of actual stop times at specific stations of preceding trains are stored, and a starting station congestion ratio storage unit 103 in which data of train congestion ratios due to differences in starting train stations are stored. And the congestion ratio storage unit 104 of the destination station in which the data of the congestion ratio of the train due to the difference of the destination station is stored.
And a train interval congestion ratio storage unit 105 in which data of the congestion ratio of the train according to the interval between the specific train and the preceding train is stored. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure for predicting train operation after the current time of the train operation predicting apparatus according to the present invention.
-It is a chart. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device according to the present invention . Horizontal axis
Indicates the time, and the vertical axis indicates the station. In FIG.
Numeral 311 shows the actual train schedule of the preceding train , 312 shows the forecast train after the current time of the preceding train , 321
Indicates the actual train schedule of the train , 322 indicates the predicted train schedule of the train after the current time , and 330 indicates the current time . FIG. 4 is a diagram showing another example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device according to the present invention . side
The axis shows time and the vertical axis shows the station. Smell in Figure 4
Te, 411 represents the actual diamond streak of the preceding train, 412
Indicates the forecast timeline of the preceding train after the current time , 4
21 indicates the forecast timeline after the current time of the train
However , 430 indicates the current time . 5 shows a data train congestion ratio due to the difference in the starting station of the preceding train and the train is stored in the starting station congestion ratio storage unit, FIG. 6
Indicates the data of the congestion degree ratio by destination station differences preceding train and the train is stored in the destination station the congestion ratio storage unit,
Figure 7 shows a data congestion ratio by train interval preceding train and the train is stored in the train interval congestion ratio storage unit
There is. Referring to the processing procedure of FIG. 2, as shown in FIG.
If the preceding train has already left the station B, and provides instructions for calculating the predicted stoppage time at the station B of the train. First, the arrival time of the train at station B is calculated (step 200).
In the case of FIG. 3, the train is still station B at the current time.
Since it has not arrived at, the value obtained by adding the running time of the planned timetable between station A and station B to the departure time of station A of the train is set as the arrival time of station B of the train. Next, it is judged whether the preceding train has already left the station at the current time (step 201). In the case of FIG. 3, since the preceding train has already left the station B, the stop time of the preceding train at the station B is calculated from the actual timetable 120 (step 202). Next is station B
Predicted stop time T of the train in question (Step 2
04). The estimated stop time T at the station is calculated by the following equation (1) . Predicted stop time T = Stop time of the preceding train at the relevant station x Congestion degree ratio due to difference in starting station x Congestion degree ratio due to difference in destination station x Congestion degree ratio due to train interval (1) Here, Fig. 5 and Fig. 6, the starting station of the preceding train is station 1, the destination station is station 3, the starting station of the train is station 2, the destination station is station 4, and the train interval between the preceding train and the concerned train is 3.5 .
Let b be the congestion ratio due to the difference in the starting station, v be the congestion ratio due to the difference in the destination station, and z be the congestion ratio due to the train interval.
Then, the predicted stop time T of the train at the station B is the predicted stop time T of the train at the station B = the stop time of the preceding train at the station B × b × v × z (2). Next, the departure time of the train at the station B is calculated, and the preparation of the prediction timetable is completed (step 205). Here, as shown in FIG. 4, the procedure for calculating the predicted stop time of the train at station B when the preceding train has not left station B at the current time will be described with reference to the schematic procedure of FIG. First, calculate the arrival time of the train at station B
(Step 200). In the case of FIG. 4, since the train has not arrived at station B at the current time, the plan diagram 110 between station A and station B at the departure time of station A of the train.
The arrival time at station B of the train is defined as a value obtained by adding the traveling times of. Next, it is determined whether or not the preceding train has already left the station B at the current time (step 201). Figure 4
In the case of, the preceding train has not left station B at the current time, so the stop time of the preceding train is predicted.
It is calculated from 0 (step 203). Next, the estimated stop time of the train at station B is calculated (step 204). Here, in FIGS. 5, 6 and 7, the starting station of the preceding train is station 2, the destination station is station 4, the starting station of the train is station 1, the destination station is station 3, and the train interval between the preceding train and the train. Is 2.5 , the congestion degree ratio due to the difference in the starting station is q, the congestion degree ratio due to the difference in the destination station is y, and the congestion degree ratio due to the train interval is zz.
The predicted stop time T of the train at the station B is the predicted stop time T of the train at the station B = the predicted stop time of the preceding train at the station B × q × y × zz (3). Next, the departure time of the train at the station B is calculated, and the preparation of the prediction timetable is completed (step 205). Next, another embodiment of the train operation prediction apparatus according to the present invention is shown in FIG.
This will be described with reference to FIGS. 9 and 10.
【実施例２】図８は、本発明に係る列車運行予測装置に
よる列車の運行予測の他の例を示す図である。横軸は時
間を示し、縦軸は駅を示している。図８において、５０
０、５０１は先行列車Ｐ，Ｑの実績ダイヤすじを示し、
５０２は当該列車の現在時刻以降の予測ダイヤすじを示
し、５１０は現在時刻を示している。 図９は、本発明に
係る列車運行予測装置による列車の運行予測の更に他の
例を示す図である。横軸は時間を示し、縦軸は駅を示し
ている。図９において、６００は先行列車Ｒの実績ダイ
ヤすじを示し、６０１は先行列車Ｓの現在時刻以降の予
測ダイヤすじを示し、６０２は当該列車の現在時刻以降
の予測ダイヤすじを示し、６１０は現在時刻を示してい
る。ここで図８に示すように、先行列車Ｐ，Ｑが駅Ｂを
既に出発した場合、当該列車の駅Ｂでの予測停車時間の
算出手順を図１０の概略手順に沿って説明する。図１０
の処理手順は、図２の処理手順にステップ７００，７０
１を追加しただけであるから、重複する説明は省略す
る。図１０の実施例は当該列車に先行する複数の先行列
車の当該駅(例えば、駅Ｂ)における停車時間(実績停車
時間または予測停車時間)の増減傾向を考慮して、図２
ないし図７を参照して説明した実施例で求めた当該列車
の予測停車時間を修正し、この修正した予測停車時間を
当該列車の予測停車時間として算出するものである。図
１０において、ステップ２０４で既述したような手法に
より当該列車の駅Ｂにおける予測停車時間Ｔを求めた
後、駅Ｂにおける修正予測停車時間Ｔ′を求める(ステ
ップ７００)。例えば図８の場合には複数の先行列車の
駅Ｂにおける実績停車時間を先行列車実績停車時間格納
部１０２から読み出す。先行列車Ｐ，Ｑの駅Ｂにおける
実績停車時間をそれぞれｔ1，ｔ2 とし、先行列車の駅Ｂ
における停車時間の増減傾向を示す増減係数をｋとする
と、
Ｔ′＝ｋＴ ……(４)
ｋ＝ｔ2／ｔ1 ……(５)
となる。図９の場合は、先行列車のうち列車Ｒの駅Ｂに
おける実績停車時間ｔ3を先行列車実績停車時間格納部
１０２より読み出し、列車Ｓの駅Ｂにおける予測停車時
間ｔ4を予測処理部１０１により既述した実施例(図２な
いし７)と同様にして求め、上記(４)，(５)式により駅
Ｂにおける修正予測停車時間Ｔ′を求める(ステップ７
００)。更に求めた修正予測停車時間Ｔ′を予測停車時
間Ｔとし(ステップ７０１)、当該列車の駅Ｂにおける発
車時刻を算出し(ステップ２０５)、予測ダイヤの作成を
終了する。[Embodiment 2] FIG. 8 shows a train operation prediction apparatus according to the present invention.
Another example of train operation prediction byFIG. Horizontal axis is hour
The vertical axis indicates the station. In FIG.Fifty
0 and 501 are actual train schedules of preceding trains P and QShowing a streak,
502 is a prediction diagram after the current time of the trainShowing the lines
Then510 is the current timeIs shown. Figure 9In the present invention
Yet another example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device
An exampleFIG. The horizontal axis shows time and the vertical axis shows the station
ing. In FIG.600 is the actual die of the preceding train R
YaShowing a streak,601 is a forecast after the current time of the preceding train S
Measurement timetableShowing a streak,602 is after the current time of the train
Prediction diagramShowing a streak,610 is the current timeShows
ItHere, as shown in FIG. 8, the preceding trains P and Q pass the station B.
Already startedIfOf the estimated stop time of the train at station B
The calculation procedure will be described along the outline procedure of FIG. Figure 10
2 is the same as the processing procedure of FIG.
Just added 1Therefore,Duplicate explanation omitted
It The embodiment of FIG. 10 shows a plurality of queues preceding the train.
Stop time of the car at the station (for example, station B) (actual stop)
Time or estimated stop time)In consideration of,Figure 2
NoThe train obtained in the embodiment described with reference to FIG.
Correct the estimated stop time of
It is calculated as the predicted stop time of the train. Figure
In 10, the method as described in step 204 is applied.
The predicted stop time T of the train at station B was calculated from
After that, the corrected predicted stop time T ′ at station B is calculated (step
700). For example, in the case of FIG.
Store the actual stop time at station B for the previous train actual stop time
Read from the unit 102. At station B of the preceding trains P and Q
Actual stop time is t1, T2 age,Station B of the preceding train
K is the increase / decrease coefficient that shows the increase / decrease tendency of the stop time inTo
When,
T '= kT (4)
k = t2/ T1 ...... (5)
Becomes For Figure 9IsTrain B of the preceding train
Actual stop time t3The preceding train actual stop time storage
Read out from 102, when train S predicts stop at station B
Interval tFourThe embodiment described above by the prediction processing unit 101 (see FIG.Na
IshiSimilar to 7),Equations (4) and (5) aboveBy station
The corrected predicted stop time T'for B is calculated (step 7).
00). Further, the corrected predicted stop time T'obtained is predicted
The interval T is set (step 701), and the train departs at station B.
Calculate the vehicle time (step 205) and create a forecast diagram
finish.
【発明の効果】本発明によれば、当該列車に対する先行
列車の当日の当該駅実績停車時間または当該駅予測停車
時間と当該列車および先行列車の置かれている環境の相
違とに基づいて、当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を求め
ることにより、常に変化する列車運行の状況に応じた列
車の特定駅における停車時間を予測できる。 According to the present invention, based on the difference of the preceding train on the day of the station actual parking time or the station predicted stoppage time and the train and preceding train of placed in that environment for that train, the By obtaining the train station's estimated stop time, it is possible to predict the train's stop time at a specific station according to the constantly changing train operation status .
【図１】本発明に係る列車運行予測装置の一実施例の全
体構成を示すブロック図である。FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the overall configuration of an embodiment of a train operation prediction device according to the present invention.
【図２】本発明の列車運行予測装置の処理内容を示すフ
ローチャートである。FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of the train operation prediction device of the present invention.
【図３】本発明に係る列車運行予測装置による列車の運
行予測の一例を示す説明図である。FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device according to the present invention.
【図４】本発明に係る列車運行予測装置による列車の運
行予測の他の例を示す説明図である。FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing another example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device according to the present invention.
【図５】先行列車と当該列車の始発駅の相違に基づく混
雑比を示すデータの一例を示す説明図である。FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of data indicating a congestion ratio based on a difference between a preceding train and a departure station of the train.
【図６】先行列車と当該列車の行先駅の相違に基づく混
雑比を示すデータの一例を示す説明図である。 FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of data indicating a congestion ratio based on a difference between a preceding train and a destination station of the train .
【図７】先行列車と当該列車の列車間隔に基づく混雑比
を示すデータの一例を示す説明図である。FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of data indicating a congestion ratio based on a train interval between a preceding train and the train.
【図８】本発明に係る列車運行予測装置による列車の運
行予測の他の例を示す説明図である。FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing another example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device according to the present invention.
【図９】本発明に係る列車運行予測装置による列車の運
行予測の他の例を示す説明図である。FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing another example of train operation prediction by the train operation prediction device according to the present invention.
【図１０】本発明の列車運行予測装置の他の実施例の処
理内容を示すフローチャートである。FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing the processing contents of another embodiment of the train operation prediction device of the present invention.
１００ 列車運行予測部 １０１ 予測処理部 １０２ 先行列車実績停車時間格納部 １０３ 始発駅混雑比格納部 １０４ 行先駅混雑比格納部 １０５ 列車間隔混雑比格納部 １０６ 表示装置 １０７ 入力装置 １１０ 計画ダイヤ １２０ 実績ダイヤ １３０ 予測ダイヤ 100 Train operation prediction department 101 prediction processing unit 102 preceding train actual stop time storage 103 First Station Congestion Ratio Storage 104 Destination station congestion ratio storage 105 Train interval congestion ratio storage 106 display device 107 input device 110 plan diagram 120 achievement schedule 130 prediction diagram
Claims (6)
中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する
機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、当該列車の当日の運行データと、少なくとも先行列車の
当該駅における実績停車時間と、 当該列車およびその先
行列車の環境の相違とを考慮して、当該列車の当該駅予
測停車時間を算出する演算手段を有することを特徴とす
る列車運行予測装置。1. A train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time from a train running time between stations and a station stop time, in a train operation prediction device, and operation data of the train on the day and at least a preceding train. of
And actual parking time in the station, taking into account the differences and the train and its preceding train environment, the station pre of the train
A train operation prediction device comprising a calculation means for calculating a measured stop time .
中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する
機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、 先行列車の当該駅での実績停車時間と、当該列車および
先行列車の始発駅の相違に基づく混雑比との積として、
当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を算出する演算手段を有
することを特徴とする列車運行予測装置。2. A train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running from the running time between stations and the stop time of the station, in the actual stop time of the preceding train at the station, As the product with the congestion ratio based on the difference in the starting station of the train and the preceding train ,
A train operation prediction device comprising a calculation means for calculating a predicted stop time of the station of the train.
中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する
機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、 先行列車の当該駅での実績停車時間と、当該列車および
先行列車の行先駅の相違に基づく混雑比との積として、
当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を算出する演算手段を有
することを特徴とする列車運行予測装置。3. A train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time from a train running time between stations and a station stop time, in a train operation prediction device, and an actual stop time of the preceding train at the station, As the product with the congestion ratio based on the difference in the destination station of the train and the preceding train ,
A train operation prediction device comprising a calculation means for calculating a predicted stop time of the station of the train.
中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する
機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、 先行列車の当該駅での実績停車時間と、当該列車および
先行列車の列車間隔に基づく混雑比との積として、当該
列車の当該駅予測停車時間を算出する演算手段を有する
ことを特徴とする列車運行予測装置。4. A train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running from the running time between stations and the stop time of a station, and the actual stop time of the preceding train at the station, As a product of the congestion ratio based on the train interval of the train and the preceding train ,
A train operation prediction device comprising a calculation means for calculating the estimated stop time of the train station .
中の列車について現在時刻以降の列車ダイヤを作成する
機能を有する列車運行予測装置において、 先行列車の当該駅での実績停車時間と、当該列車および
先行列車の始発駅の相違に基づく混雑比と、当該列車お
よび先行列車の行先駅の相違に基づく混雑比と、当該列
車および先行列車の列車間隔に基づく混雑比との積とし
て、当該列車の 当該駅予測停車時間を算出する演算手段
を有することを特徴とする列車運行予測装置。5. A train operation prediction device having a function of creating a train schedule after the current time for a train currently running from the inter-station travel time and the station stop time, and the actual stop time of the preceding train at the station, a congestion ratio based on the difference of the trains and <br/> preceding train starting station, the train Contact
A congestion ratio based on the destination station differences spare preceding train, as the product of the congestion ratio based on the train interval of the trains and the preceding train, and further comprising a calculating means for calculating the station predicted stoppage time of the train Train operation prediction device.
の列車運行予測装置において、 前記演算手段は、当該列車に先行する複数の先行列車の
当該駅における実績停車時間または予測停車時間の増減
傾向に応じて、求めた当該列車の当該駅予測停車時間を
修正することを特徴とする 列車運行予測装置。6.The method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
In the train operation prediction device of The calculation means is for a plurality of preceding trains preceding the train.
Increase / decrease in actual or predicted stop time at the station
According to the trend, the estimated stop time of the train concerned at the station
Characterized by modifying Train operation prediction device.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP18580594A JP3413473B2 (en) | 1994-08-08 | 1994-08-08 | Train operation prediction device |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP18580594A JP3413473B2 (en) | 1994-08-08 | 1994-08-08 | Train operation prediction device |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| JPH0848250A JPH0848250A (en) | 1996-02-20 |
| JP3413473B2 true JP3413473B2 (en) | 2003-06-03 |
Family
ID=16177204
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP18580594A Expired - Fee Related JP3413473B2 (en) | 1994-08-08 | 1994-08-08 | Train operation prediction device |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| JP (1) | JP3413473B2 (en) |
Families Citing this family (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2017168585A1 (en) * | 2016-03-29 | 2017-10-05 | 三菱電機株式会社 | Train traffic control system and train traffic control method |
| CN108710321A (en) * | 2018-05-16 | 2018-10-26 | 上海应用技术大学 | Rail transit cars congestion state monitors system |
| JP7490150B2 (en) * | 2021-11-11 | 2024-05-24 | 三菱電機株式会社 | Automatic train operation support device, automatic train operation support system, and automatic train operation support method |
Family Cites Families (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPS6334281A (en) * | 1986-07-30 | 1988-02-13 | 三菱電機株式会社 | Train-delay increase preventive system |
| JP2723321B2 (en) * | 1989-12-27 | 1998-03-09 | 三菱電機株式会社 | Train group controller |
| JP2726548B2 (en) * | 1990-05-23 | 1998-03-11 | 株式会社東芝 | Train operation management device |
| JP2840993B2 (en) * | 1992-03-02 | 1998-12-24 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Train operation management system |
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1994
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