CN1825346A - Reverse network plan method of distributing network in cities and towns based on reverse load predetermination - Google Patents
Reverse network plan method of distributing network in cities and towns based on reverse load predetermination Download PDFInfo
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- CN1825346A CN1825346A CNA2006100255025A CN200610025502A CN1825346A CN 1825346 A CN1825346 A CN 1825346A CN A2006100255025 A CNA2006100255025 A CN A2006100255025A CN 200610025502 A CN200610025502 A CN 200610025502A CN 1825346 A CN1825346 A CN 1825346A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for planning town distribution reverse network based on reverse load forecasting, characterized by adopting the reverse load forecasting and reverse network planning, where the reverse load forecasting has the steps of: calculating annual load forecasted value of a long-term plan; calculating short-term load forecasted value; and the reverse network planning has the steps of: determining addresses and capacities of long-term transformer stations by long-term forecasted total load; making a long-term network planning solution; deriving capacities and number of transformer stations for near- and medium- term plans from near- and medium- term plans; determining addresses and capacities of near- and medium- term transformer stations according to far-near combination principle and current practical situations; according to the long-term network planning solution and by synthetically considering present condition of network distribution, development schedule and other factors in the planned region, obtaining a near-term planning solution to assure continuity of electric network development and united cooperation between long-term and near-term solutions, thus laying a solid foundation for the electric network development in future.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the method for power distribution network load prediction and distribution network planning.Be particularly related to a kind of town power distribution network inverse network law of planning based on reverse load prediction method.
Background technology
The load forecasting method that electrical network is commonly used has expert prediction method, analogy method, unit consumption method, per capita household electricity consumption method, scale-up factor growth method, elastic coefficient method, artificial intelligence method etc. at present.The common feature of these methods is: according to the electric load of planning region in recent years, adopt various mathematical methods to judge the trend of load growths, from the close-by examples to those far off infer the planning region near, in, load at a specified future date.But these methods in the town power distribution network, the precision of prediction of long-term load is relatively poor, and for emerging zone, many cities and towns, owing to do not possess historical data, this load forecasting method from the close-by examples to those far off is no longer suitable.Be the thought and the method for the reverse load prediction of this this research innovation proposition (pushing back recent load), preferably resolve the problem of the power distribution network load prediction that becomes more meticulous by loading long term.And, the thought and the method for reverse Electric Power Network Planning proposed further based on the result of reverse load prediction.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to propose a kind of town power distribution network inverse network law of planning based on reverse load prediction method in order to overcome the weak point of present electrical network load forecasting method commonly used.
Technical scheme of the present invention is: a kind of town power distribution network inverse network planing method based on reverse load prediction, be characterized in, and adopt recent load forecasting method and network plan method behind the first distant view:
The concrete steps of reverse load prediction are:
1) carries out long term load calculating according to the different mining in function plot with corresponding saturation loading density or load index with the load density target method;
2) push back recent load by the distant view load according to the location in dissimilar planning region load growth rules, planning zone and the developmental sequence and the dynamics in planning zone;
The concrete steps of inverse network law of planning are:
1) elder generation is determined the addressing constant volume of distant view transformer station by distant view prediction total load;
2) make distant view rack programme;
3) release capacity and seat number near, the required transformer station of medium term planning by loading near, mid-term;
4) follow the principle of far and near combination and at present actual conditions determine the addressing constant volume of transformer station near, mid-term;
5) according to distant view rack programme and take all factors into consideration factors such as planning regional distribution present situation, development progress and obtain the immediate plan schemes, with the continuity that guarantees power network development and the united and coordinating of far away, nearly scheme, for the adaptability of power network development is from now on laid a solid foundation.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the present invention uses reverse load prediction method in the prediction work of distribution network planning, the break the normal procedure thinking of load prediction, but obtain being better than predicting the outcome of conventional load predicted method precision, the concrete application verification in more than ten distribution network planning engineerings the validity and the advance of this method.Based on the inverse network law of planning of reverse load prediction method, be the electrical network specific implementation of planning flexibly.Same concrete application verification in more than ten distribution network planning engineerings the rationality of this method.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is dissimilar planning regions load development trend synoptic diagram.
Embodiment
A kind of town power distribution network inverse network planing method based on reverse load prediction is characterized in that it comprises reverse load prediction method and inverse network law of planning:
One, reverse load prediction method
Reverse load prediction method mainly based on: (development of electric load is progressively risen usually with reference to the rule of the domestic and international flourishing urban power load development of contrast, after to a certain degree, can reach a metastable load value), in conjunction with the load statistics in the very fast cities and towns of domestic development, the planning region load rule of development is predicted simultaneously;
The step of reverse load prediction method is:
1, calculate the load prediction numerical value in far-seeing plan year:
Carry out long term load calculating according to the different mining in function plot with corresponding saturation loading density or load index by the load density target method, the load density target method comprises load density method and load index method;
Load density method: this method is the method for carrying out load prediction according to the payload of unit land area, is applicable to the clear and definite load of each function division of prediction:
P
1＝d
1·S
1
D in the formula
1-load density, MW/km
2
S
1-land area, km
2
The load index method: this method is the method for carrying out load prediction according to the payload of unit floor area of building.The load prediction that is applicable to the plot of doing regulatory plan, site plan and total figure scheme is calculated;
P
1＝d
2·S
2
D in the formula
2-comprehensive power consumption index, W/m
2
S
2-floor area of building, m
2
2, extrapolate recent load prediction numerical value:
Calculate load in the recent period by the distant view load according to the location in dissimilar planning region load growth rules, planning zone and the developmental sequence and the dynamics in planning zone;
According to investigation, statistics, analysis, the increasing law of cities and towns electric load is divided into three types: E type trend, G type trend, S type trend:
E type trend: load increases with approximate index law, and its annual growth is bigger;
G type trend: load has experienced one section very fast development stages, has entered a kind of developing stage with saturation characteristic in time span of forecast;
S type trend: in time span of forecast, load increases by a kind of S type curvilinear trend, and the initial stage electric load is low, and the later stage development is very fast;
Draw three kinds of load changing figure according to above-mentioned three kinds of trend, as shown in Figure 1.
Two, inverse network law of planning
The inverse network law of planning is the planing method that power distribution network is adopted the distant view unified planning, distributes and implement in the recent period,
Concrete steps are:
1, determines the addressing constant volume of distant view transformer station by distant view prediction total load according to reverse load prediction method;
2, make distant view rack programme;
3, release capacity and seat number near, the required transformer station of medium term planning by loading near, mid-term;
4, follow the principle of far and near combination and at present actual conditions determine the addressing constant volume of transformer station near, mid-term;
5, according to distant view rack programme and take all factors into consideration factors such as planning regional distribution present situation, development progress and obtain the immediate plan schemes, with the continuity that guarantees power network development and the united and coordinating of far away, nearly scheme, for the adaptability of power network development is from now on laid a solid foundation.
Claims (1)
1. the town power distribution network inverse network planing method based on reverse load prediction is characterized in that, adopts recent load forecasting method and network plan method behind the first distant view:
The concrete steps of reverse load prediction are:
1) utilize the load density target method to carry out load calculating in long term with corresponding saturation loading density or load index according to the different mining in function plot;
2) push back recent load by the distant view load according to the location in dissimilar planning region load growth rules, planning zone and the developmental sequence and the dynamics in planning zone;
The concrete steps of inverse network law of planning are:
1) at first determines the addressing constant volume of distant view transformer station by distant view prediction total load;
2) make distant view rack programme;
3) release capacity and seat number near, the required transformer station of medium term planning by loading near, mid-term;
4) follow the principle of far and near combination and at present actual conditions determine the addressing constant volume of transformer station near, mid-term;
5) according to distant view rack programme and take all factors into consideration factors such as planning regional distribution present situation, development progress and obtain the immediate plan schemes, with the continuity that guarantees power network development and the united and coordinating of far away, nearly scheme, for the adaptability of power network development is from now on laid a solid foundation.
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| CNA2006100255025A CN1825346A (en) | 2006-04-07 | 2006-04-07 | Reverse network plan method of distributing network in cities and towns based on reverse load predetermination |
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| CNA2006100255025A CN1825346A (en) | 2006-04-07 | 2006-04-07 | Reverse network plan method of distributing network in cities and towns based on reverse load predetermination |
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Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN100454317C (en) * | 2007-08-23 | 2009-01-21 | 上海交通大学 | Electrified wire netting layout computer auxiliary decision-making support system |
| CN102254242A (en) * | 2011-06-10 | 2011-11-23 | 华北电力大学 | Planning network data system and fast intelligent generating method thereof |
| CN102426665A (en) * | 2011-09-19 | 2012-04-25 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Selection method of planning construction standard of electric distribution network |
| CN102521509A (en) * | 2011-12-13 | 2012-06-27 | 重庆市电力公司万州供电局 | Method for achieving optimal location of distribution transformer by improved iterative algorithm |
| CN104573848A (en) * | 2014-12-09 | 2015-04-29 | 国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Power demand prediction and planning and reliability-based power distribution network construction method |
| CN112541618A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Active power distribution network planning method based on gridding and storage medium |
| CN112541617A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Constant volume and site selection method for transformer substation and storage medium |
-
2006
- 2006-04-07 CN CNA2006100255025A patent/CN1825346A/en active Pending
Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN100454317C (en) * | 2007-08-23 | 2009-01-21 | 上海交通大学 | Electrified wire netting layout computer auxiliary decision-making support system |
| CN102254242A (en) * | 2011-06-10 | 2011-11-23 | 华北电力大学 | Planning network data system and fast intelligent generating method thereof |
| CN102426665A (en) * | 2011-09-19 | 2012-04-25 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Selection method of planning construction standard of electric distribution network |
| CN102521509A (en) * | 2011-12-13 | 2012-06-27 | 重庆市电力公司万州供电局 | Method for achieving optimal location of distribution transformer by improved iterative algorithm |
| CN104573848A (en) * | 2014-12-09 | 2015-04-29 | 国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Power demand prediction and planning and reliability-based power distribution network construction method |
| CN112541618A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Active power distribution network planning method based on gridding and storage medium |
| CN112541617A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Constant volume and site selection method for transformer substation and storage medium |
| CN112541617B (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2022-11-22 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Constant volume and site selection method for transformer substation and storage medium |
| CN112541618B (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2023-01-10 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Active power distribution network planning method based on gridding and storage medium |
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