CN117828512A - Rapid evaluation and prediction method for operation risk of oil immersed transformer - Google Patents
Rapid evaluation and prediction method for operation risk of oil immersed transformer Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the field of evaluation and prediction of the running risk of an oil-immersed transformer, in particular to a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the running risk of the oil-immersed transformer, which comprises the following steps: s1, establishing an operation state comparison module of an oil-immersed transformer by utilizing historical operation data of the oil-immersed transformer; s2, establishing real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing real-time environment data of the oil-immersed transformer; s3, comparing the operation state of the oil-immersed transformer with the real-time operation interference reference data to obtain a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer; s4, obtaining a fast evaluation prediction result of the running risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to the real-time running analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer, and respectively establishing a processing comparison flow by collecting the internal data and the external data of the oil-immersed transformer, so that subsequent overhaul and maintenance are facilitated, and stable output of the risk evaluation result and fast acquisition of the risk prediction result are improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of evaluation and prediction of operation risks of oil-immersed transformers, in particular to a rapid evaluation and prediction method for operation risks of oil-immersed transformers.
Background
In order to ensure safe and stable operation of the oil immersed transformer, data such as oil temperature, oil level, current and voltage are often monitored, various key parameters in the running state of equipment can be monitored at any time, the state of the equipment can be known in time, and the equipment can be rapidly alarmed when abnormal faults occur, so that control is managed in time, and the running reliability of the transformer is effectively improved. The main transformer, the high-voltage factory transformer and the starting standby transformer of the large unit are mostly oil-immersed transformers, the oil-immersed transformers and auxiliary equipment thereof in normal operation are monitored according to the instruments on the control panel at regular intervals, the transformer body and the cooling device thereof are also checked, related data are regularly transcribed and analyzed, and a risk assessment and prediction method suitable for the common oil-immersed transformers is established accordingly.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a rapid evaluation and prediction method for the running risk of an oil-immersed transformer, which simultaneously provides the evaluation and prediction result of the running risk of the oil-immersed transformer through the combination processing of real-time data and historical data.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting operation risk of an oil-immersed transformer, comprising:
s1, establishing an operation state comparison module of an oil-immersed transformer by utilizing historical operation data of the oil-immersed transformer;
s2, establishing real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing real-time environment data of the oil-immersed transformer;
s3, comparing the operation state of the oil-immersed transformer with the real-time operation interference reference data to obtain a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer;
and S4, obtaining a fast evaluation prediction result of the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer.
Preferably, the step of establishing the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by using the historical operation data of the oil-immersed transformer includes:
collecting historical operation data of the oil immersed transformer;
respectively acquiring historical normal operation data and historical abnormal operation data according to the historical operation data;
acquiring the internal oil temperature, the internal oil level and the internal oil gas content of the corresponding oil immersed transformer as primary data of historical normal operation data according to the historical normal operation data;
acquiring the operation voltage and the operation current of the corresponding oil-immersed transformer as secondary data of the historical normal operation data according to the historical normal operation data;
utilizing the primary data and the secondary data of the historical normal operation data to establish an operation data forward comparison module;
acquiring the internal oil temperature, the internal oil level and the internal oil gas content of the corresponding oil immersed transformer as primary data of historical abnormal operation data according to the historical abnormal operation data;
acquiring the operation voltage and the operation current of the corresponding oil-immersed transformer as secondary data of the historical abnormal operation data according to the historical abnormal operation data;
establishing a running data negative comparison module by using the primary data and the secondary data of the historical abnormal running data;
and using the operation data positive comparison template and the operation data negative comparison template as an operation state comparison template of the oil immersed transformer.
Further, the establishing the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time environment data of the oil-immersed transformer includes:
collecting real-time environment data of the oil immersed transformer;
utilizing the real-time environment data to perform time sequence arrangement to establish continuous environment data of the oil-immersed transformer;
collecting corresponding overhaul moments of the oil-immersed transformer and establishing overhaul nodes of the oil-immersed transformer;
using the continuous environment data and the overhaul node of the oil-immersed transformer as real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer;
the real-time environment data comprise environment temperature data and environment humidity data.
Further, the step of obtaining the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the operation state comparison module and the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the following steps:
s3-1, collecting real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer;
s3-2, obtaining a real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer and an operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer;
s3-3, obtaining a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the real-time operation interference reference data.
Further, the step of obtaining the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer and the operation state comparison template of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the following steps:
s3-2-1, acquiring real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer, corresponding to internal oil temperature, internal oil level and internal oil gas content, as real-time primary data comparison characteristics;
s3-2-2, acquiring real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer, wherein the corresponding operation voltage and operation current are used as real-time secondary data comparison characteristics;
s3-2-3, acquiring the same historical operation data as historical primary mapping data according to the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing the real-time primary data comparison characteristic;
s3-2-4, acquiring the same historical operation data as historical secondary mapping data according to the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic;
s3-2-5, judging whether the historical primary mapping data corresponds to an operation data forward comparison template, if so, executing S3-2-6, otherwise, outputting comparison characteristics of the historical primary mapping data and real-time secondary data when an initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal;
s3-2-6, judging whether the historical secondary mapping data corresponds to an operation data forward comparison module, if so, outputting the real-time primary data comparison characteristic and the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic of the oil-immersed transformer as normal, otherwise, outputting the historical primary mapping data and the historical secondary mapping data as abnormal.
Further, the obtaining the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the real-time operation interference reference data comprises the following steps:
s2-3-1, judging whether an initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, if so, executing S3-3-2, otherwise, directly executing S3-3-3;
s3-3-2, judging whether the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result is consistent with the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template, if so, judging that the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, judging that the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, and outputting the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the corresponding real-time operation interference reference data;
s3-3-3, judging whether the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result is consistent with the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template, if so, outputting the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer, if not, outputting the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template.
Further, obtaining the fast evaluation prediction result of the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the following steps:
s4-1, obtaining an operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer by using a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer;
s4-2, obtaining an operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer;
s4-3, using the operation risk assessment result and the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer as operation risk rapid assessment prediction results of the oil-immersed transformer.
Further, obtaining an operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the following steps:
s4-1-1, judging whether a real-time operation analysis result of the oil immersed transformer is normal, if so, executing S4-1-2, otherwise, directly executing S4-1-4;
s4-1-2, judging whether other data exist at the current moment, if so, acquiring a real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the next moment, and executing S4-1-3, otherwise, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal;
s4-1-3, judging whether the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the next moment is consistent with the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment, if so, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, updating the first-level data and the second-level data corresponding to the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment to be divided into historical normal operation data, otherwise, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and updating the first-level data and the second-level data corresponding to the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment to be divided into historical abnormal operation data;
s4-1-4, judging whether the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to historical second-level mapping data, if so, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, otherwise, executing S4-1-5;
s4-1-5, judging whether the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to the real-time secondary data comparison feature and the operation state comparison template of the oil-immersed transformer corresponds to the operation data negative comparison template or not, if yes, the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, otherwise, the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and outputting the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to the real-time secondary data comparison feature.
Further, obtaining the running risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the running risk evaluation result of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the following steps:
s4-2-1, judging whether the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, if so, establishing an analysis result trend by utilizing the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer to correspond to the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation analysis result, and executing S4-2-2, otherwise, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and outputting real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment;
s4-2-2, judging whether the analysis result trend is a stable trend, if so, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, executing S4-2-3;
s4-2-3, judging whether a negative trend corresponds to the existence of a real-time secondary data comparison feature, if so, respectively acquiring the real-time secondary data comparison feature of the real-time secondary data comparison feature at the next time adjacent to the real-time secondary data comparison feature, and executing S4-2-4, otherwise, predicting the running risk of the oil immersed transformer as abnormal;
s4-2-4, establishing a historical data characteristic change trend by utilizing the adjacent real-time secondary data comparison characteristic at the last moment and the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic at the current moment;
s4-2-5, establishing a predicted data characteristic change trend by utilizing the current moment real-time secondary data comparison characteristic and the adjacent next moment real-time secondary data comparison characteristic;
s4-2-6, judging whether the historical data characteristic change trend is consistent with the predicted data characteristic change trend, if so, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal;
the analysis result trend is a stable trend and a passive trend, the stable trend is that the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation analysis result are both normal, the passive trend is that the real-time operation initial analysis result is normal, and the real-time operation analysis result is abnormal.
Compared with the closest prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the processing comparison flow is respectively established by collecting the internal data and the external data of the oil immersed transformer, when the analysis has problems, the step stage and the corresponding data can be quickly obtained, the subsequent overhaul and maintenance are convenient, the operation risk assessment result is preferentially judged and output, the operation risk prediction result is obtained according to the operation risk assessment result, the cross verification output emphasizes the mutual intersection of the steps and the data types, and the stable output of the risk assessment result and the quick acquisition of the risk prediction result are improved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the running risk of an oil-immersed transformer;
fig. 2 is a flow chart of risk analysis result processing of a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the running risk of an oil-immersed transformer;
fig. 3 is a corresponding relation diagram of analysis results of each stage of the method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the running risk of the oil-immersed transformer.
Detailed Description
The following describes the embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the drawings.
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Example 1: the invention provides a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of an oil immersed transformer, which is shown in figure 1 and comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing an operation state comparison module of an oil-immersed transformer by utilizing historical operation data of the oil-immersed transformer;
s2, establishing real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing real-time environment data of the oil-immersed transformer;
s3, comparing the operation state of the oil-immersed transformer with the real-time operation interference reference data to obtain a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer;
and S4, obtaining a fast evaluation prediction result of the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer.
S1 specifically comprises:
s1-1, collecting historical operation data of an oil immersed transformer;
s1-2, respectively acquiring historical normal operation data and historical abnormal operation data according to the historical operation data;
s1-3, acquiring the internal oil temperature, the internal oil level and the internal oil gas content of the corresponding oil immersed transformer as primary data of historical normal operation data according to the historical normal operation data;
s1-4, acquiring the operation voltage and the operation current of the corresponding oil-immersed transformer according to the historical normal operation data as secondary data of the historical normal operation data;
s1-5, establishing an operation data forward comparison module by utilizing the primary data and the secondary data of the historical normal operation data;
s1-6, acquiring the internal oil temperature, the internal oil level and the internal oil gas content of the corresponding oil immersed transformer as primary data of historical abnormal operation data according to the historical abnormal operation data;
s1-7, acquiring the operation voltage and the operation current of the corresponding oil-immersed transformer as secondary data of the historical abnormal operation data according to the historical abnormal operation data;
s1-8, establishing an operation data negative comparison module by using the primary data and the secondary data of the historical abnormal operation data;
s1-9, using the operation data positive comparison template and the operation data negative comparison template as an operation state comparison template of the oil immersed transformer.
In this embodiment, a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting an operation risk of an oil-immersed transformer is provided, wherein the oil temperature, the oil level and the oil gas content in the oil-immersed transformer need to be collected at minimum time intervals, and the operation voltage and the operation current are output measurement values of the oil-immersed transformer.
S2 specifically comprises:
s2-1, collecting real-time environment data of the oil immersed transformer;
s2-2, utilizing the real-time environment data to perform time sequence arrangement to establish continuous environment data of the oil immersed transformer;
s2-3, collecting corresponding overhaul moments of the oil-immersed transformer and establishing overhaul nodes of the oil-immersed transformer;
s2-4, using continuous environment data and maintenance nodes of the oil-immersed transformer as real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer;
the real-time environment data comprise environment temperature data and environment humidity data.
S3 specifically comprises:
s3-1, collecting real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer;
s3-2, obtaining a real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer and an operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer;
s3-3, obtaining a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the real-time operation interference reference data.
S3-2 specifically comprises:
s3-2-1, acquiring real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer, corresponding to internal oil temperature, internal oil level and internal oil gas content, as real-time primary data comparison characteristics;
s3-2-2, acquiring real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer, wherein the corresponding operation voltage and operation current are used as real-time secondary data comparison characteristics;
s3-2-3, acquiring the same historical operation data as historical primary mapping data according to the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing the real-time primary data comparison characteristic;
s3-2-4, acquiring the same historical operation data as historical secondary mapping data according to the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic;
s3-2-5, judging whether the historical primary mapping data corresponds to an operation data forward comparison template, if so, executing S3-2-6, otherwise, outputting comparison characteristics of the historical primary mapping data and real-time secondary data when an initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal;
s3-2-6, judging whether the historical secondary mapping data corresponds to an operation data forward comparison module, if so, outputting the real-time primary data comparison characteristic and the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic of the oil-immersed transformer as normal, otherwise, outputting the historical primary mapping data and the historical secondary mapping data as abnormal.
S3-3 specifically comprises:
s3-3-1, judging whether an initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, if so, executing S3-3-2, otherwise, directly executing S3-3-3;
s3-3-2, judging whether the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result is consistent with the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template, if so, judging that the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, judging that the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, and outputting the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the corresponding real-time operation interference reference data;
s3-3-3, judging whether the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result is consistent with the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template, if so, outputting the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer, if not, outputting the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template.
S4 specifically comprises the following steps:
s4-1, obtaining an operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer by using a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer;
s4-2, obtaining an operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer;
s4-3, using the operation risk assessment result and the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer as operation risk rapid assessment prediction results of the oil-immersed transformer.
S4-1 specifically comprises:
s4-1-1, judging whether a real-time operation analysis result of the oil immersed transformer is normal, if so, executing S4-1-2, otherwise, directly executing S4-1-4;
s4-1-2, judging whether other data exist at the current moment, if so, acquiring a real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the next moment, and executing S4-1-3, otherwise, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal;
s4-1-3, judging whether the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the next moment is consistent with the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment, if so, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, updating the first-level data and the second-level data corresponding to the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment to be divided into historical normal operation data, otherwise, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and updating the first-level data and the second-level data corresponding to the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment to be divided into historical abnormal operation data;
s4-1-4, judging whether the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to historical second-level mapping data, if so, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, otherwise, executing S4-1-5;
s4-1-5, judging whether the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to the real-time secondary data comparison feature and the operation state comparison template of the oil-immersed transformer corresponds to the operation data negative comparison template or not, if yes, the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, otherwise, the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and outputting the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to the real-time secondary data comparison feature.
S4-2 specifically comprises:
s4-2-1, judging whether the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, if so, establishing an analysis result trend by utilizing the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer to correspond to the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation analysis result, and executing S4-2-2, otherwise, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and outputting real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment;
s4-2-2, judging whether the analysis result trend is a stable trend, if so, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, executing S4-2-3;
s4-2-3, judging whether a negative trend corresponds to the existence of a real-time secondary data comparison feature, if so, respectively acquiring the real-time secondary data comparison feature of the real-time secondary data comparison feature at the next time adjacent to the real-time secondary data comparison feature, and executing S4-2-4, otherwise, predicting the running risk of the oil immersed transformer as abnormal;
s4-2-4, establishing a historical data characteristic change trend by utilizing the adjacent real-time secondary data comparison characteristic at the last moment and the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic at the current moment;
s4-2-5, establishing a predicted data characteristic change trend by utilizing the current moment real-time secondary data comparison characteristic and the adjacent next moment real-time secondary data comparison characteristic;
s4-2-6, judging whether the historical data characteristic change trend is consistent with the predicted data characteristic change trend, if so, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal;
the analysis result trend is a stable trend and a passive trend, the stable trend is that the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation analysis result are both normal, the passive trend is that the real-time operation initial analysis result is normal, and the real-time operation analysis result is abnormal.
In this embodiment, a method for rapidly evaluating and predicting an operation risk of an oil-immersed transformer, where the historical data feature change trend and the predicted data feature change trend relate to trend definitions, and only data trend is determined, and trend properties are not defined.
In this embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, an operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is output through step-by-step processing of an initial analysis result, a real-time operation analysis result and a risk assessment result, and meanwhile, according to different conditions, required data at corresponding moments are respectively output.
In this embodiment, as shown in fig. 3, in the method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the running risk of the oil-immersed transformer, the initial analysis result and the running analysis result correspond to each other, and both the initial analysis result layer and the running analysis result layer contain normal and abnormal conditions.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical aspects of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the specific embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is intended to be covered by the claims.
Claims (9)
1. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of the oil immersed transformer is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, establishing an operation state comparison module of an oil-immersed transformer by utilizing historical operation data of the oil-immersed transformer;
s2, establishing real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing real-time environment data of the oil-immersed transformer;
s3, comparing the operation state of the oil-immersed transformer with the real-time operation interference reference data to obtain a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer;
and S4, obtaining a fast evaluation prediction result of the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer.
2. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to claim 1, wherein the step of establishing the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by using the historical operation data of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the steps of:
collecting historical operation data of the oil immersed transformer;
respectively acquiring historical normal operation data and historical abnormal operation data according to the historical operation data;
acquiring the internal oil temperature, the internal oil level and the internal oil gas content of the corresponding oil immersed transformer as primary data of historical normal operation data according to the historical normal operation data;
acquiring the operation voltage and the operation current of the corresponding oil-immersed transformer as secondary data of the historical normal operation data according to the historical normal operation data;
utilizing the primary data and the secondary data of the historical normal operation data to establish an operation data forward comparison module;
acquiring the internal oil temperature, the internal oil level and the internal oil gas content of the corresponding oil immersed transformer as primary data of historical abnormal operation data according to the historical abnormal operation data;
acquiring the operation voltage and the operation current of the corresponding oil-immersed transformer as secondary data of the historical abnormal operation data according to the historical abnormal operation data;
establishing a running data negative comparison module by using the primary data and the secondary data of the historical abnormal running data;
and using the operation data positive comparison template and the operation data negative comparison template as an operation state comparison template of the oil immersed transformer.
3. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to claim 2, wherein the step of establishing the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time environment data of the oil-immersed transformer comprises the steps of:
collecting real-time environment data of the oil immersed transformer;
utilizing the real-time environment data to perform time sequence arrangement to establish continuous environment data of the oil-immersed transformer;
collecting corresponding overhaul moments of the oil-immersed transformer and establishing overhaul nodes of the oil-immersed transformer;
using the continuous environment data and the overhaul node of the oil-immersed transformer as real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer;
the real-time environment data comprise environment temperature data and environment humidity data.
4. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of an oil-immersed transformer according to claim 3, wherein obtaining the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the operation state comparison module and the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer comprises:
s3-1, collecting real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer;
s3-2, obtaining a real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer and an operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer;
s3-3, obtaining a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the real-time operation interference reference data.
5. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of an oil-immersed transformer according to claim 4, wherein obtaining the initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer and the operation state comparison template of the oil-immersed transformer comprises:
s3-2-1, acquiring real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer, corresponding to internal oil temperature, internal oil level and internal oil gas content, as real-time primary data comparison characteristics;
s3-2-2, acquiring real-time operation data of the oil immersed transformer, wherein the corresponding operation voltage and operation current are used as real-time secondary data comparison characteristics;
s3-2-3, acquiring the same historical operation data as historical primary mapping data according to the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing the real-time primary data comparison characteristic;
s3-2-4, acquiring the same historical operation data as historical secondary mapping data according to the operation state comparison module of the oil-immersed transformer by utilizing the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic;
s3-2-5, judging whether the historical primary mapping data corresponds to an operation data forward comparison template, if so, executing S3-2-6, otherwise, outputting comparison characteristics of the historical primary mapping data and real-time secondary data when an initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal;
s3-2-6, judging whether the historical secondary mapping data corresponds to an operation data forward comparison module, if so, outputting the real-time primary data comparison characteristic and the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic of the oil-immersed transformer as normal, otherwise, outputting the historical primary mapping data and the historical secondary mapping data as abnormal.
6. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of an oil-immersed transformer according to claim 5, wherein obtaining the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the real-time operation interference reference data comprises:
s3-3-1, judging whether an initial analysis result of the real-time operation of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, if so, executing S3-3-2, otherwise, directly executing S3-3-3;
s3-3-2, judging whether the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result is consistent with the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template, if so, judging that the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, judging that the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, and outputting the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer and the corresponding real-time operation interference reference data;
s3-3-3, judging whether the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result is consistent with the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template, if so, outputting the real-time operation interference reference data of the oil-immersed transformer, if not, outputting the real-time operation interference reference data of the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation interference reference data of the corresponding operation state comparison template.
7. The method for rapid evaluation and prediction of the operational risk of an oil-immersed transformer according to claim 4, wherein obtaining the rapid evaluation and prediction result of the operational risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to the real-time operational analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer comprises:
s4-1, obtaining an operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer by using a real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer;
s4-2, obtaining an operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer;
s4-3, using the operation risk assessment result and the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer as operation risk rapid assessment prediction results of the oil-immersed transformer.
8. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to claim 7, wherein obtaining the operation risk evaluation result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the real-time operation analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer comprises:
s4-1-1, judging whether a real-time operation analysis result of the oil immersed transformer is normal, if so, executing S4-1-2, otherwise, directly executing S4-1-4;
s4-1-2, judging whether other data exist at the current moment, if so, acquiring a real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the next moment, and executing S4-1-3, otherwise, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal;
s4-1-3, judging whether the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the next moment is consistent with the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment, if so, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, updating the first-level data and the second-level data corresponding to the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment to be divided into historical normal operation data, otherwise, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and updating the first-level data and the second-level data corresponding to the real-time operation initial analysis result of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment to be divided into historical abnormal operation data;
s4-1-4, judging whether the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to historical second-level mapping data, if so, judging that the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, otherwise, executing S4-1-5;
s4-1-5, judging whether the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to the real-time secondary data comparison feature and the operation state comparison template of the oil-immersed transformer corresponds to the operation data negative comparison template or not, if yes, the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, otherwise, the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and outputting the real-time operation analysis result corresponds to the real-time secondary data comparison feature.
9. The method for rapidly evaluating and predicting the operation risk of the oil-immersed transformer according to claim 8, wherein obtaining the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer by using the operation risk evaluation result of the oil-immersed transformer comprises:
s4-2-1, judging whether the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, if so, establishing an analysis result trend by utilizing the operation risk assessment result of the oil-immersed transformer to correspond to the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation analysis result, and executing S4-2-2, otherwise, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal, and outputting real-time operation data of the oil-immersed transformer at the current moment;
s4-2-2, judging whether the analysis result trend is a stable trend, if so, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, executing S4-2-3;
s4-2-3, judging whether a negative trend corresponds to the existence of a real-time secondary data comparison feature, if so, respectively acquiring the real-time secondary data comparison feature of the real-time secondary data comparison feature at the next time adjacent to the real-time secondary data comparison feature, and executing S4-2-4, otherwise, predicting the running risk of the oil immersed transformer as abnormal;
s4-2-4, establishing a historical data characteristic change trend by utilizing the adjacent real-time secondary data comparison characteristic at the last moment and the real-time secondary data comparison characteristic at the current moment;
s4-2-5, establishing a predicted data characteristic change trend by utilizing the current moment real-time secondary data comparison characteristic and the adjacent next moment real-time secondary data comparison characteristic;
s4-2-6, judging whether the historical data characteristic change trend is consistent with the predicted data characteristic change trend, if so, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is normal, otherwise, judging that the operation risk prediction result of the oil-immersed transformer is abnormal;
the analysis result trend is a stable trend and a passive trend, the stable trend is that the real-time operation initial analysis result and the real-time operation analysis result are both normal, the passive trend is that the real-time operation initial analysis result is normal, and the real-time operation analysis result is abnormal.
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