CN117674298A - Load scheduling method considering uncertainty of wind-solar field station - Google Patents
Load scheduling method considering uncertainty of wind-solar field station Download PDFInfo
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- H02J3/466—Scheduling the operation of the generators, e.g. connecting or disconnecting generators to meet a given demand
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/003—Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/12—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load
- H02J3/14—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load by switching loads on to, or off from, network, e.g. progressively balanced loading
- H02J3/144—Demand-response operation of the power transmission or distribution network
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- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/381—Dispersed generators
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- H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
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- H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
- H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
- H02J2300/22—The renewable source being solar energy
- H02J2300/24—The renewable source being solar energy of photovoltaic origin
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- H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
- H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
- H02J2300/28—The renewable source being wind energy
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- H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
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- H02J2310/00—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load
- H02J2310/50—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load for selectively controlling the operation of the loads
- H02J2310/56—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load for selectively controlling the operation of the loads characterised by the condition upon which the selective controlling is based
- H02J2310/58—The condition being electrical
- H02J2310/60—Limiting power consumption in the network or in one section of the network, e.g. load shedding or peak shaving
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Abstract
The invention provides a load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-solar field station, which belongs to the technical field of load scheduling and specifically comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of determining an uncertainty evaluation value of historical output of a wind-light field station based on output fluctuation amounts and fluctuation periods of the wind-light field station in effective output periods of different dates, obtaining the uncertainty wind-light field station in a specified area and determining the wind-light field station through the uncertainty evaluation value, determining the output uncertainty of the specified area by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station, determining the output comprehensive uncertainty of the wind-light field station in the specified area based on the output uncertainty and the randomness evaluation value, and determining a load scheduling scheme of the specified area in a preset period by combining the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the specified area and weather data of the preset period, so that the reliability of load scheduling is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of load scheduling, and particularly relates to a load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-solar field station.
Background
The novel power system taking new energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation and the like as main bodies is an important support for achieving the national 'double carbon' target. In the novel power system, a power supply main body is converted from coal power to new energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation and the like. Along with the large-scale construction and grid-connected operation of the wind-solar power supply, the wind-solar power supply has serious challenges for the safe and stable operation of the power grid due to the uncertainty factors such as randomness, fluctuation, intermittence and the like.
In order to solve the above technical problems, in the prior art, for example, in the invention patent CN202011307109.1, "power system optimization scheduling method considering wind-light output prediction error and demand response flexibility", a real-time scheduling model targeting the minimum unbalanced power of the system and having a time scale of minutes is established, and finally, on the premise of meeting basic constraint conditions, a real-time scheduling plan is output according to the real-time scheduling model, but the following problems exist:
in the prior art, generation of a scheduling model for differentiating the evaluation results of the output uncertainty of different wind-light plant stations is ignored, specifically, the stability and the uncertainty of the output of different wind-light plant stations in a designated area are different to a certain extent, so that the reliability of load scheduling in different areas can be influenced to a certain extent, and if the uncertainty of the output of different wind-light plant stations cannot be considered, the reliability of the load scheduling cannot be ensured.
Based on the technical problems, the invention provides a load scheduling method considering the uncertainty of a wind-solar field station.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
according to one aspect of the invention, a load scheduling method is provided that takes into account wind and solar field station uncertainty.
The load scheduling method considering the uncertainty of the wind-solar field station is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, acquiring the number of wind-light field stations in a designated area and historical output data of different wind-light field stations, determining the random evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the designated area by combining the deviation between the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in a designated time period and the historical load data of the designated area, and entering the next step when the random evaluation quantity does not meet the requirement;
s2, acquiring effective force output time periods of the wind-light field station on different dates, and determining an uncertainty evaluation value of the historical force output of the wind-light field station based on the force output fluctuation quantity and the fluctuation time period of the wind-light field station on the effective force output time periods of the wind-light field station on different dates;
s3, obtaining an uncertain wind-light field station and a determined wind-light field station in the appointed region through the uncertainty evaluation value, and determining the output uncertainty of the appointed region by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station;
and S4, determining the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field stations in the designated area based on the output uncertainty and the randomness evaluation quantity, and determining a load scheduling scheme of the designated area in the preset period by combining the installed capacities of different wind-light field stations in the designated area and weather data of the preset period.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the random evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed area is determined by combining the deviation between the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in the appointed time period and the historical load data of the appointed area, so that the fluctuation and the randomness of the historical processing of the wind-light field station caused by the difference of the quantity and the distribution uniformity of the historical output of the wind-light field station are realized, the screening of the area with larger processing fluctuation is realized, and a foundation is laid for the generation of a targeted load scheduling scheme.
2. The method comprises the steps of determining an uncertainty evaluation value of historical output of the wind-light field station based on output fluctuation quantity and fluctuation time periods of the wind-light field station in effective output time periods of different dates, considering not only the difference of the uncertainty of the historical output of the wind-light field station caused by output fluctuation conditions of the effective output time periods, but also the uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station caused by the difference of the quantity of the fluctuation time periods of different dates, and accordingly realizing the evaluation of the uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station from a long period angle.
3. The load scheduling scheme of the specified region in the preset time period is carried out based on the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station in the specified region, the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the specified region and the weather data of the preset time period, so that the accurate evaluation of the real load output of the preset time period from the two angles of the predicted load and the comprehensive uncertainty of the predicted load is realized, and the foundation is laid for further realizing the generation of the accurate load scheduling scheme.
The further technical scheme is that the historical output data of the wind-light field station comprises historical processing output power of the wind-light field station and moments corresponding to different historical output power, and specifically, the historical output data of the wind-light field station is determined according to the Internet surfing electric quantity of the wind-light field station.
The effective output time period is determined according to the historical output force of the wind-light field station in different time periods, and specifically, when the historical output force of the time period is larger than the average value of the historical output force of the wind-light field station in different time periods, the time period is determined to be the effective output time period.
The reference output time period is determined according to other effective output time periods with time deviation from the effective output time period being smaller than a preset time length.
The further technical scheme is that when the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period does not meet the requirement, the effective output period is determined to be a fluctuation period.
The further technical scheme is that the uncertain wind-light field station in the appointed area and the determined wind-light field station are obtained through the uncertainty evaluation value, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
and when the uncertainty evaluation value of the wind-light field station is smaller than a preset limiting quantity, determining the light field station as determining the wind-light field station.
The further technical scheme is that the load scheduling scheme of the appointed area in the preset time period is determined by combining the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the weather data of the preset time period, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
and determining the predicted output of the specified region in the preset period based on the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the specified region and weather data of the preset period through the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field stations in the specified region, determining the corrected predicted output of the preset period by combining the comprehensive uncertainty of the output, and determining the load scheduling scheme of the preset period based on the corrected prediction processing.
In another aspect, the present invention provides a computer system comprising: a communicatively coupled memory and processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, characterized by: the processor executes the load scheduling method considering the uncertainty of the wind-light field station when running the computer program.
Additional features and advantages will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be apparent from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and drawings.
In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, preferred embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Drawings
The above and other features and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent by describing in detail exemplary embodiments thereof with reference to the attached drawings.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a load scheduling method that accounts for wind and solar field station uncertainty;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a method of determining a random estimate of historical output of a wind-solar field station for a given region.
Detailed Description
Example embodiments will now be described more fully with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the exemplary embodiments can be embodied in many forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein; rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the concept of the example embodiments to those skilled in the art. The same reference numerals in the drawings denote the same or similar structures, and thus detailed descriptions thereof will be omitted.
The terms "a," "an," "the," and "said" are used to indicate the presence of one or more elements/components/etc.; the terms "comprising" and "having" are intended to be inclusive and mean that there may be additional elements/components/etc. in addition to the listed elements/components/etc.
Example 1
To solve the above problem, according to one aspect of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, there is provided a load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-solar field station, which is characterized by specifically comprising:
s1, acquiring the number of wind-light field stations in a designated area and historical output data of different wind-light field stations, determining the random evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the designated area by combining the deviation between the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in a designated time period and the historical load data of the designated area, and entering the next step when the random evaluation quantity does not meet the requirement;
specifically, the historical output data of the wind-light field station comprises historical processing output power of the wind-light field station and corresponding moments of different historical output power, and specifically, the historical output data of the wind-light field station is determined according to the internet surfing electric quantity of the wind-light field station.
In one possible embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the method for determining the random evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the specified area in the step S1 is as follows:
determining the total historical output quantity of all the wind-light field stations in the appointed area at different moments according to the number of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the historical output data of different wind-light field stations, and determining the output duty ratio of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area at different time intervals by combining the historical load data of the appointed area at different moments;
determining a reference output duty ratio based on the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods in the appointed area, determining the deviation amount of the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods according to the reference output duty ratio and the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods in the appointed area, and determining the basic randomness evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field station by combining the number of time periods when the deviation amount of the wind-light field station does not meet the requirement and the deviation amount of the output duty ratio in the time period when the deviation amount of the wind-light field station does not meet the requirement;
determining reference output through the average value of the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in the appointed area in an appointed time period, determining deviation wind-light field stations based on the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output, judging whether the number of the deviation wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the historical output data meet requirements, if yes, taking the basic randomness evaluation amount as the randomness evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area, and if not, entering the next step;
the number of the wind-light field stations with the deviation and the historical output data are obtained, the average value of the deviation amount of the historical output data among the wind-light field stations with the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output is combined to determine the historical output uniformity of the wind-light field stations, and the number of the wind-light field stations, the historical output data, the historical output uniformity and the basic randomness evaluation amount which meet the requirements are used for determining the random evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area through the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output.
Specifically, when the randomness evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed area meets the requirement, determining that the randomness of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed area is in a preset requirement range, and not considering the uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station when load scheduling is carried out.
In another possible embodiment, the method for determining the random evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the designated area in the step S1 includes:
determining the total historical output quantity of all the wind-light field stations in the appointed area at different moments according to the number of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the historical output data of different wind-light field stations, and determining the output duty ratio of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area at different time intervals by combining the historical load data of the appointed area at different moments;
when the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in the designated area in different time periods is not in the preset duty ratio range, the number duty ratio of the time periods in the designated area meets the requirement:
determining that the randomness evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed area meets the requirement, and determining the randomness evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed area according to the number of time periods with the output ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods not within the preset duty ratio range;
when the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in the designated area in different time periods is not in the preset duty ratio range, the number duty ratio of the time periods in the designated area is not satisfied:
determining a reference output duty ratio based on the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods in the appointed area, determining the deviation amount of the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods according to the reference output duty ratio and the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods in the appointed area, and determining the basic randomness evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field station by combining the number of time periods when the deviation amount of the wind-light field station does not meet the requirement and the deviation amount of the output duty ratio in the time period when the deviation amount of the wind-light field station does not meet the requirement;
determining reference output through the average value of the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in the appointed area in an appointed time period, determining deviation wind-light field stations based on the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output, judging whether the number of the deviation wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the historical output data meet requirements, if yes, taking the basic randomness evaluation amount as the randomness evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area, and if not, entering the next step;
the number of the wind-light field stations with the deviation and the historical output data are obtained, the average value of the deviation amount of the historical output data among the wind-light field stations with the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output is combined to determine the historical output uniformity of the wind-light field stations, and the number of the wind-light field stations, the historical output data, the historical output uniformity and the basic randomness evaluation amount which meet the requirements are used for determining the random evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area through the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output.
S2, acquiring effective force output time periods of the wind-light field station on different dates, and determining an uncertainty evaluation value of the historical force output of the wind-light field station based on the force output fluctuation quantity and the fluctuation time period of the wind-light field station on the effective force output time periods of the wind-light field station on different dates;
it should be noted that, the effective output period is determined according to the historical output of the wind-light field station in different periods, specifically, when the historical output of the period is greater than the average value of the historical output of the wind-light field station in different periods, the period is determined to be the effective output period.
In a possible embodiment, the method for determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-solar field station in the step S2 is as follows:
determining a reference output period of the effective output period through the moment of the effective output period of the wind-solar field station, determining the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period according to the deviation amount of the historical output force of the effective output period and the historical output force of the reference output period and the time deviation of the effective output period and the reference output period, and determining the fluctuation period in the effective output period based on the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period;
acquiring the number of fluctuation time periods of different dates and the number proportion of effective force output time periods of the dates, and determining the force output fluctuation amounts of the different dates by combining the number of the force output fluctuation amounts of the fluctuation time periods of the different dates and the average value of the force output fluctuation amounts of the effective processing time periods;
determining fluctuation date of the wind-light field station in a preset time period based on the fluctuation quantity of the date of different dates, judging whether the fluctuation date exists in the wind-light field station in the preset time period, if yes, entering the next step, and if not, determining an uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station through the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the date of the wind-light field station in different dates in the preset time period;
obtaining the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station on different dates in a preset time period and the date quantity of which the deviation quantity from the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station is smaller than the preset fluctuation quantity, and determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical power output of the wind-light field station by combining the date quantity of the fluctuation date of the wind-light field station in the preset time period, the quantity of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station and the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical power output of the wind-light field station.
Further, the reference output period is determined according to other effective output periods with time deviations from the effective output period less than a preset duration.
It is understood that when the amount of output fluctuation of the effective output period does not meet the requirement, the effective output period is determined as a fluctuation period.
In another possible embodiment, the method for determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-solar field station in the step S2 is as follows:
determining a reference output period of the effective output period through the moment of the effective output period of the wind-solar field station, determining the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period according to the deviation amount of the historical output force of the effective output period and the historical output force of the reference output period and the time deviation of the effective output period and the reference output period, and determining the fluctuation period in the effective output period based on the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period;
when the wind-solar field station has no fluctuation time period in a preset time period, the wind-solar field station comprises the following steps:
determining an uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station through an average value of the output fluctuation quantity of the wind-light field station in an effective output period in a preset time period;
when the wind-light field station has a fluctuation period in a preset time period, the wind-light field station comprises a plurality of wind-light field stations, wherein the wind-light field stations are arranged in a preset time period, and when the fluctuation period exists in the preset time period, the wind-light field:
acquiring the number of fluctuation time periods of different dates and the number proportion of effective output time periods of the dates, determining the output fluctuation amount of the dates of the different dates by combining the number of the output fluctuation amounts of the fluctuation time periods of the different dates and the average value of the output fluctuation amounts of the effective processing time periods, determining the fluctuation date of the wind-light field station in a preset time period based on the output fluctuation amount of the dates of the different dates, judging whether the fluctuation date exists in the preset time period of the wind-light field station, if yes, entering the next step, and if no, determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station through the maximum value of the output fluctuation amount of the dates of the wind-light field station in the preset time period;
obtaining the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station on different dates in a preset time period and the date quantity of which the deviation quantity from the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station is smaller than the preset fluctuation quantity, and determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical power output of the wind-light field station by combining the date quantity of the fluctuation date of the wind-light field station in the preset time period, the quantity of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station and the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical power output of the wind-light field station.
S3, obtaining an uncertain wind-light field station and a determined wind-light field station in the appointed region through the uncertainty evaluation value, and determining the output uncertainty of the appointed region by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station;
the method for obtaining the uncertain wind-light field station and determining the wind-light field station in the specified region through the uncertainty evaluation value specifically comprises the following steps:
and when the uncertainty evaluation value of the wind-light field station is smaller than a preset limiting quantity, determining the light field station as determining the wind-light field station.
In one possible embodiment, the method for determining the uncertainty of the output of the specified area in the step S3 is as follows:
s31, determining a weight value of the wind-light field station based on the historical output of the wind-light field station in a designated area, and determining a basic quantity of the area output uncertainty in the designated area by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the wind-light field station, the number of the wind-light field stations and the historical output;
s32, acquiring the number and the historical output power of the uncertain wind-light field stations in the appointed area, judging whether the number and the historical output power of the uncertain wind-light field stations in the appointed area meet the requirements, if so, entering the next step, and if not, entering the step S34;
s33, determining an uncertainty correction evaluation value of the wind-light field station according to the uncertainty evaluation value of the wind-light field station and the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed region, determining screening wind-light field stations based on the uncertainty correction evaluation value, judging whether the number and the historical output of the screening wind-light field stations in the appointed region meet requirements, if yes, taking the basic quantity of the regional output uncertainty in the appointed region as the output uncertainty in the appointed region, and if not, entering step S34;
s34, extracting the number and the historical output force of the uncertain wind-light field stations of the appointed region, determining the output uncertainty compensation quantity of the appointed region by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the uncertain wind-light field stations of the appointed region, extracting the number and the historical output force of the screening wind-light field stations of the appointed region, and determining the output uncertainty correction compensation quantity of the appointed region by combining the uncertainty correction evaluation value of the screening wind-light field stations of the appointed region;
s35, determining the output uncertainty of the designated region based on the output uncertainty correction compensation quantity, the output uncertainty compensation quantity and the base quantity of the regional output uncertainty of the designated region.
In another possible embodiment, the method for determining the uncertainty of the output of the specified area in the step S3 is as follows:
determining a weight value of the wind-light field station based on the historical output of the wind-light field station in a designated area, and determining a basic quantity of the area output uncertainty in the designated area by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the wind-light field station, the number of the wind-light field stations and the historical output;
extracting the number and the historical output power of the uncertain wind-light field stations of the appointed region, determining the output uncertainty compensation quantity of the appointed region by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the uncertain wind-light field stations of the appointed region, extracting the number and the historical output power of the screening wind-light field stations of the appointed region, and determining the output uncertainty correction compensation quantity of the appointed region by combining the uncertainty correction evaluation value of the screening wind-light field stations of the appointed region;
and determining the output uncertainty of the designated region based on the output uncertainty correction compensation quantity, the output uncertainty compensation quantity and the basic quantity of the regional output uncertainty of the designated region.
And S4, determining the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field stations in the designated area based on the output uncertainty and the randomness evaluation quantity, and determining a load scheduling scheme of the designated area in the preset period by combining the installed capacities of different wind-light field stations in the designated area and weather data of the preset period.
It should be noted that, the determining of the load scheduling scheme of the specified area in the preset period by combining the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the specified area and the weather data of the preset period specifically includes:
and determining the predicted output of the specified region in the preset period based on the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the specified region and weather data of the preset period through the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field stations in the specified region, determining the corrected predicted output of the preset period by combining the comprehensive uncertainty of the output, and determining the load scheduling scheme of the preset period based on the corrected prediction processing.
Example 2
In another aspect, the present invention provides a computer system comprising: a communicatively coupled memory and processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, characterized by: the processor executes the load scheduling method considering the uncertainty of the wind-light field station when running the computer program.
Through the above examples, the applicant has obtained the following technical effects:
1. the random evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the appointed area is determined by combining the deviation between the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in the appointed time period and the historical load data of the appointed area, so that the fluctuation and the randomness of the historical processing of the wind-light field station caused by the difference of the quantity and the distribution uniformity of the historical output of the wind-light field station are realized, the screening of the area with larger processing fluctuation is realized, and a foundation is laid for the generation of a targeted load scheduling scheme.
2. The method comprises the steps of determining an uncertainty evaluation value of historical output of the wind-light field station based on output fluctuation quantity and fluctuation time periods of the wind-light field station in effective output time periods of different dates, considering not only the difference of the uncertainty of the historical output of the wind-light field station caused by output fluctuation conditions of the effective output time periods, but also the uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station caused by the difference of the quantity of the fluctuation time periods of different dates, and accordingly realizing the evaluation of the uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station from a long period angle.
3. The load scheduling scheme of the specified region in the preset time period is carried out based on the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station in the specified region, the installed capacity of different wind-light field stations in the specified region and the weather data of the preset time period, so that the accurate evaluation of the real load output of the preset time period from the two angles of the predicted load and the comprehensive uncertainty of the predicted load is realized, and the foundation is laid for further realizing the generation of the accurate load scheduling scheme.
In this specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and identical and similar parts of each embodiment are all referred to each other, and each embodiment mainly describes differences from other embodiments. In particular, for apparatus, devices, non-volatile computer storage medium embodiments, the description is relatively simple, as it is substantially similar to method embodiments, with reference to the section of the method embodiments being relevant.
The foregoing describes specific embodiments of the present disclosure. Other embodiments are within the scope of the following claims. In some cases, the actions or steps recited in the claims can be performed in a different order than in the embodiments and still achieve desirable results. In addition, the processes depicted in the accompanying figures do not necessarily require the particular order shown, or sequential order, to achieve desirable results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.
The foregoing is merely one or more embodiments of the present description and is not intended to limit the present description. Various modifications and alterations to one or more embodiments of this description will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, or the like, which is within the spirit and principles of one or more embodiments of the present description, is intended to be included within the scope of the claims of the present description.
Claims (10)
1. The load scheduling method considering the uncertainty of the wind-solar field station is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring the number of wind-light field stations in a designated area and the historical output data of different wind-light field stations, determining the random evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the designated area by combining the deviation between the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in a designated time period and the historical load data of the designated area, and entering the next step when the random evaluation quantity does not meet the requirement;
acquiring effective output time periods of the wind-light field station on different dates, and determining an uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station based on output fluctuation quantity and fluctuation time periods of the effective output time periods of the wind-light field station on different dates;
obtaining an uncertain wind-light field station in the appointed area and determining the wind-light field station through the uncertainty evaluation value, and determining the uncertainty of the output of the appointed area by combining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station;
and determining the comprehensive uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field stations in the designated area based on the output uncertainty and the randomness evaluation quantity, and determining a load scheduling scheme of the designated area in the preset period by combining the installed capacities of different wind-light field stations in the designated area and weather data of the preset period.
2. The load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-light field station according to claim 1, wherein the historical output data of the wind-light field station comprises historical processing output power of the wind-light field station and corresponding moments of different historical output power, and specifically, the historical output data of the wind-light field station is determined according to the internet power of the wind-light field station.
3. The load scheduling method considering uncertainty of the wind-light field station according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the random evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the designated area is as follows:
determining the total historical output quantity of all the wind-light field stations in the appointed area at different moments according to the number of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the historical output data of different wind-light field stations, and determining the output duty ratio of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area at different time intervals by combining the historical load data of the appointed area at different moments;
determining a reference output duty ratio based on the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods in the appointed area, determining the deviation amount of the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods according to the reference output duty ratio and the output duty ratio of the wind-light field station in different time periods in the appointed area, and determining the basic randomness evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field station by combining the number of time periods when the deviation amount of the wind-light field station does not meet the requirement and the deviation amount of the output duty ratio in the time period when the deviation amount of the wind-light field station does not meet the requirement;
determining reference output through the average value of the historical output data of different wind-light field stations in the appointed area in an appointed time period, determining deviation wind-light field stations based on the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output, judging whether the number of the deviation wind-light field stations in the appointed area and the historical output data meet requirements, if yes, taking the basic randomness evaluation amount as the randomness evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area, and if not, entering the next step;
the number of the wind-light field stations with the deviation and the historical output data are obtained, the average value of the deviation amount of the historical output data among the wind-light field stations with the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output is combined to determine the historical output uniformity of the wind-light field stations, and the number of the wind-light field stations, the historical output data, the historical output uniformity and the basic randomness evaluation amount which meet the requirements are used for determining the random evaluation amount of the historical output of the wind-light field stations in the appointed area through the deviation amount of the historical output data and the reference output.
4. The load scheduling method considering the uncertainty of the wind-light field station according to claim 1, wherein when the randomness evaluation quantity of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the designated area meets the requirement, the randomness of the historical output of the wind-light field station in the designated area is determined to be within a preset requirement range, and the uncertainty of the output of the wind-light field station is not required to be considered when the load scheduling is performed.
5. The load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-light field station according to claim 1, wherein the effective output time period is determined according to historical output force of the wind-light field station in different time periods, specifically, when the historical output force of the time period is larger than an average value of the historical output force of the wind-light field station in different time periods, the time period is determined to be the effective output time period.
6. The load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-light field station according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station is as follows:
determining a reference output period of the effective output period through the moment of the effective output period of the wind-solar field station, determining the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period according to the deviation amount of the historical output force of the effective output period and the historical output force of the reference output period and the time deviation of the effective output period and the reference output period, and determining the fluctuation period in the effective output period based on the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period;
acquiring the number of fluctuation time periods of different dates and the number proportion of effective force output time periods of the dates, and determining the force output fluctuation amounts of the different dates by combining the number of the force output fluctuation amounts of the fluctuation time periods of the different dates and the average value of the force output fluctuation amounts of the effective processing time periods;
determining fluctuation date of the wind-light field station in a preset time period based on the fluctuation quantity of the date of different dates, judging whether the fluctuation date exists in the wind-light field station in the preset time period, if yes, entering the next step, and if not, determining an uncertainty evaluation value of the historical output of the wind-light field station through the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the date of the wind-light field station in different dates in the preset time period;
obtaining the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station on different dates in a preset time period and the date quantity of which the deviation quantity from the maximum value of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station is smaller than the preset fluctuation quantity, and determining the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical power output of the wind-light field station by combining the date quantity of the fluctuation date of the wind-light field station in the preset time period, the quantity of the fluctuation quantity of the power output of the wind-light field station and the uncertainty evaluation value of the historical power output of the wind-light field station.
7. The load scheduling method according to claim 6, wherein the reference output period is determined according to other effective output periods having a time deviation from the effective output period less than a preset time period.
8. The load scheduling method considering uncertainty of a wind-solar field station according to claim 1, wherein when the output fluctuation amount of the effective output period does not meet the requirement, the effective output period is determined to be a fluctuation period.
9. The load scheduling method considering uncertainty of the wind-solar field station according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining the uncertainty wind-solar field station in the designated area and the determining the wind-solar field station according to the uncertainty evaluation value specifically comprises:
and when the uncertainty evaluation value of the wind-light field station is smaller than a preset limiting quantity, determining the light field station as determining the wind-light field station.
10. A computer system, comprising: a communicatively coupled memory and processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, characterized by: the processor, when executing the computer program, performs a load scheduling method according to any one of claims 1-9, taking into account wind and solar field station uncertainty.
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