CN117114281A - Determination method of flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme - Google Patents
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Abstract
A method for determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme comprises the steps of firstly determining a typical day set of a planning year, secondly solving a flexible resource multi-stage planning model according to certain typical day data, existing flexible resource configuration and new energy installed capacity, constructing the flexible resource multi-stage planning model by taking the minimum sum of planning stage investment cost, day-ahead stage scheduling cost and day-in-stage running cost as a target, and repeating the second step until the typical day set is traversed, so as to obtain the flexible resource planning scheme of the planning year. The design divides the flexible resource planning problem into three stages of typical daily planning investment, daily scheduling and daily operation, and builds a flexible resource multi-stage planning model based on multiple time scales by taking the minimum total cost of the three stages as a target, so that the actual operation process of the power grid can be better simulated, and the flexible resource planning accuracy of the power system is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power system planning, and particularly relates to a method for determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme.
Background
The construction of a novel power system mainly based on new energy is a necessary way for realizing energy transformation. However, with the rapid increase of the installed capacity of new energy, the flexible resource gap of the power system is continuously enlarged, so that the new energy bearing capacity is insufficient, and great challenges are brought to transformation and upgrading of the power system. In order to cope with the challenges, flexible resources such as thermal power flexible transformation, energy storage power station construction and the like are required to be planned, so that the operation flexibility of the power system is obviously improved, and the cooperative development of flexible resources and new energy is realized.
Chinese patent: the invention of application number 202010543532.5 discloses a power supply and power flow structure optimization method based on a multi-stage random programming theory, which adopts a Monte Carlo simulation method to generate a scene; the scene is subtracted by adopting a rapid forward scene tree subtraction algorithm, a scene tree is obtained, and the value probability of the prediction error of the power consumption of each node in the scene tree are obtained; establishing a power supply and power flow structure multi-stage random optimization model; the method can reasonably consider the influence of renewable energy access on power grid peak regulation under the environment of rapid development of renewable energy sources and uncertainty of electricity consumption increase, provides an optimization scheme set facing the uncertainty, and still has the following problems:
1. the conventional method is used for planning a traditional power supply and renewable energy sources of a multi-area large system, and the thermal power flexibility transformation and the energy storage power station are not planned;
2. the existing method is not based on the actual power system operation process for the power system planning problem, the accuracy of a planning result is poor due to multi-time scale division, a scene tree is built by dividing stages in units of years, and a multi-stage random planning model is used for at least three stages and more, namely three years and more of planning periods, so that the description of uncertainty of random variables in the existing method is not clear enough, and the planning granularity is coarse;
3. the multistage random optimization model in the existing method lacks new energy bearing capacity constraint, and the influence of the new energy bearing capacity is not fully considered.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the problems in the prior art and provide a method for determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme, which can simulate the actual running process of a power grid and improve the accuracy of a planning result.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
a method for determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme is carried out sequentially according to the following steps:
s1, determining a typical day set of a planning year;
s2, solving a flexible resource multi-stage planning model according to a certain typical day data, existing flexible resource allocation and new energy installed capacity, wherein the flexible resource multi-stage planning model is constructed by taking the minimum sum of planning stage investment cost, day-ahead stage scheduling cost and day-in stage operation cost as a target;
and S3, repeating the step S2 until the typical day set is traversed, and obtaining a flexible resource allocation planning scheme for planning years.
The determining method further comprises the following steps:
s4, judging whether the new energy generating capacity duty ratio of the planning year under the planning scheme obtained in the step S3 reaches the preset new energy generating capacity duty ratio, if not, entering the step S5, and if so, entering the step S6;
s5, after the new energy installation capacity is increased, returning to the step S2;
and S6, outputting a flexible resource planning scheme for planning years.
In step S2, the flexible resource multi-stage planning model is:
min f＝f 1 +f 2 +f 3
in the above, f 1 、f 2 、f 3 Respectively represent the investment cost of the planning stage, the scheduling cost of the day-ahead stage and the operation cost of the day-in stage, omega b 、Ω g Respectively represents an energy storage power station set to be planned and a thermal power unit flexibility transformation set,unit investment cost for respectively representing flexibility transformation of energy storage power station and thermal power unit, < >>Respectively representing the new capacity of the energy storage power station and the thermal power unit for flexible transformation, y and r respectively representing the service life and the discount rate of the new flexible resources,respectively representing the unit starting cost, shutdown cost and fuel cost of the j-th thermal power generating unit, +.>Respectively representing the prescheduled output and the deployment reserve capacity of the j thermal power generating unit in the day-ahead stage and the day-in stage,respectively representing the unit operation cost, the charging power in the daytime and the discharging power in the daytime of the kth energy storage power station,>the unit compensation cost of the interruptible load at the ith node and the interruption quantity of the demand response participated in the daytime phase are respectively represented by +.>Respectively represents penalty cost factors of limiting electricity and forced load of the new energy,respectively representing the new energy power limit quantity of the mth new energy unit in the daily stage and the forced cut load quantity at the ith node, wherein T represents the simulation running time, omega and N ω Respectively represent the omega-th scene in the daily stage scene tree, the fields Jing Jige, ρ in the daily stage scene tree ω Represents the omega scene probability, N g 、N b 、N d 、N re Respectively representing a thermal power unit set, an energy storage power station set, a load node set and a new energy unit set.
The flexible resource multi-stage planning model includes a planning stage constraint, a pre-day stage constraint, and an intra-day stage constraint, wherein,
the planning phase constraint comprises a planning capacity constraint of flexible resources and a system positive and negative standby constraint;
the day-ahead stage constraint comprises day-ahead stage tide constraint, day-ahead stage new energy constraint, thermal power unit constraint and day-ahead stage energy storage power station constraint;
the daily phase constraint comprises daily phase tide constraint, thermal power unit deployment reserve capacity limit, daily phase energy storage power station constraint, daily phase new energy constraint and system constraint.
The planning capacity constraint of the flexible resource is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively represent the upper limit and the lower limit of the construction capacity of the newly added kth energy storage power station, and the +.>Representing the newly increased installed capacity of the kth energy storage power station on day d, < >>Respectively representing the final installed capacity, the existing installed capacity, the +.>Represents the newly increased flexibility of the jth thermal power generating unit on the d day to reform the capacity, < + >>Representing the minimum technical output of the jth thermal power unit on the d day, < >>Respectively representing the minimum technical output of the j-th thermal power generating unit after the modification of flexibility is not implemented and implemented,/->The flexible reconstruction scheme of the j thermal power generating unit on the d day and the d-1 day is shown;
the positive and negative standby constraint of the system is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively maximum load value, positive standby requirement coefficient and negative standby requirement coefficient, < ->Maximum technical output for the j-th thermal power unit,/->Representing the installed capacity of new energy source,/->Providing negative standby capacity coefficients for the jth thermal power unit and the kth energy storage power station respectively,/->The maximum charge and discharge power of the kth energy storage power station is respectively;
the day-ahead stage tide constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,representing the output of a thermal power unit at t time in a typical day>Respectively represents the predicted power and the pre-limit power of the mth new energy unit,/new energy unit>Respectively represents the pre-charge and discharge power of the kth energy storage power station,respectively represent the load at the ith node, the voltage phase magnitude of the nth node, and +.>Indicating the upper power limit of the system branch in which circulation is allowed, B in For node susceptance matrix, < >>Λ i Respectively representing a thermal power unit set, a new energy set, an energy storage power station set and a node set which are connected with the ith node;
the new energy constraint at the day-ahead stage is as follows:
the thermal power generating unit is constrained as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,represents the lowest output lower limit of the thermal power unit which considers the start-stop state and the flexibility transformation,the variable M represents a large constant and is a variable of 0-1 of the starting and stopping states of the jth thermal power generating unit at the time t and the time t-1 respectively>The maximum upward and downward climbing rates of the jth thermal power generating unit are respectively +.>The unit start-up and shut-down costs of the j-th thermal power generating unit, minUp i 、MinDn i Respectively the minimum start-up and shut-down time intervals allowed by the j-th thermal power generating unit;
the constraint of the day-ahead phase energy storage power station is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,0-1 variable representing charge and discharge state of kth energy storage power station at t moment, +.> SOC k The upper limit and the lower limit of the charge state of the energy storage power station are respectively +.>The electric quantity state of the kth energy storage power station at the time t and the time t-1,energy level of kth energy storage station at the start and end of a typical day, respectively +.>Respectively charging and discharging efficiency of the energy storage power station, wherein deltat is a scheduling time gap;
the daily stage tide constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,standby respectively representing jth thermal power generating unit deployment at t moment of omega day sceneThe method comprises the steps of using capacity, charging power of a kth energy storage power station, discharging power of the kth energy storage power station, active output of an mth new energy unit, limited electric quantity of the mth new energy unit, load at an ith node, voltage phase of the ith node and the like>The voltage phase of the nth node of the system in the omega scene of the day period is as high as possible;
the thermal power generating unit deployment reserve capacity limit is as follows:
the constraints of the energy storage power station in the daytime are as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,the electric quantity states of the kth energy storage power station at the t moment and the t-1 moment of the omega-th day scene respectivelyA state;
the new energy constraint at the day-ahead stage is as follows:
the system constraints are:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,is the upper limit of the interruptible load at the ith node, gamma U 、γ D Indicating that the up and down flexibility allowed by the system is not sufficient for the desired upper limit coefficient, respectively.
The flexible resource multi-stage planning model should satisfy unexpected conditions:
in the above formula, x is a decision variable set required to meet unexpected conditions in the intra-day stage,decision variable set for intra-day phase scene ω, +.>For intra-day phase scene->Decision variable set of (2), and scene->Contained in scene ω.
The flexible resource multi-stage planning model also comprises new energy installation duty ratio constraint and power generation duty ratio constraint.
The new energy installation duty ratio constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively represent the installed capacity of new energy sources in the y-th year, the installed capacity of a thermal power unit, and alpha y The installation ratio requirement of new energy is met for the y th year;
the generated energy duty ratio constraint is as follows:
in the above, beta y The energy generation capacity of new energy in the y-th year is required,and respectively representing the new energy source of the y-th year and the actual power generation amount of the thermal power generating unit.
The method for generating the intra-day scene tree comprises the following steps:
a. dividing a typical day into a plurality of sub-periods according to the historical output data of the new energy of the typical day;
b. sampling sub-time periods to generate a plurality of new energy output scenes, and then clustering the generated new energy output scenes to finish scene reduction;
c. and generating a scene tree by taking the predicted output at the day-ahead stage as a root node and taking the new energy output scene after being cut down in each subperiod as a subnode.
In step S2, a CPLEX solver is adopted to solve a flexible resource multi-stage planning model.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the invention relates to a method for determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme, which comprises the steps of firstly determining a typical day set of a planning year, secondly solving a flexible resource multi-stage planning model according to certain typical day data, existing flexible resource configuration and new energy installed capacity, wherein the flexible resource multi-stage planning model is constructed by taking the minimum sum of planning stage investment cost, day-ahead stage scheduling cost and day-in stage operation cost as a target, and repeating the second step until the typical day set is traversed to obtain the flexible resource planning scheme of the planning year; the flexible resource planning scheme is used for overall planning of thermal power flexible transformation and energy storage power station construction, optimizes a flexible resource structure of the power system, realizes collaborative development of flexible resources and new energy, divides the flexible resource planning problem into three stages of typical daily planning investment, daily scheduling and daily operation, and builds a flexible resource multi-stage planning model based on multiple time scales with the minimum total cost of the three stages as a target, so that the actual operation process of the power grid can be better simulated, and the accuracy of flexible resource planning of the power system is improved. Therefore, the accuracy of flexible resource planning of the power system is improved.
2. According to the method for determining the flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme, scene tree is applied to generate and cut a new energy power generation prediction error in the intra-day stage of a typical day; the design describes the uncertainty of the new energy through the scene tree, can embody the influence of the uncertainty of the new energy on the simulation operation of the power grid, and compared with the traditional technology that the scene tree is applied by taking the year as a unit, the scene tree is applied by taking the typical day as a unit, the particle size is finer, the uncertainty of the new energy can be described more accurately, the robustness is good, and the error is small. Therefore, the invention can describe the uncertainty of the new energy more accurately, has finer granularity, good planning robustness and small error.
3. In the method for determining the flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme, the flexible resource multi-stage planning model also comprises a new energy installation duty ratio constraint and a power generation duty ratio constraint; the design can meet the requirements of the new energy bearing capacity through the flexible resource planning scheme of the new energy installation duty ratio constraint and the generated energy duty ratio constraint to ensure output. Therefore, the flexible resource planning scheme can meet the new energy bearing capacity.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of example 1.
Fig. 2 is a system configuration diagram of an IEEE 39 node in embodiment 1.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart for generating an intra-day stage scene tree in embodiment 1.
Fig. 4 is a flexible resource planning scheme output by example 1.
Fig. 5 is the flexible resource investment cost, the running cost and the total cost under the flexible resource planning scheme output by embodiment 1.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the drawings and the detailed description.
Referring to FIG. 1, in Y b For the reference year, for the planned year Y b +1、Y b +2、Y b The method comprises the steps of (1) carrying out flexible resource planning by applying a determining method of a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme to an IEEE 39 node system, wherein the structure of the IEEE 39 node system is shown in a figure 2, system parameters are shown in a table 1, the system comprises 6 thermal power units without flexible transformation, 3 wind power stations and 3 energy storage power stations, the total load is 2000MW, and the parameters of the 6 thermal power units are shown in a table 2:
table 1 system parameters
| Parameters (parameters) | Numerical value | Parameters (parameters) | Numerical value |
| Thermal power flexibility modification cost | 90 ten thousand yuan/MW | Thermal power unit start-stop cost | 2000 yuan/time |
| Energy storage construction cost | 150 ten thousand yuan/MWh | Thermal power unit operation cost | 530 yuan/MWh |
| Service life of thermal power | For 20 years | Cost of energy storage unit operation | 60 yuan/MWh |
| Service life of energy storage | For 10 years | Interruptible load unit compensation cost | 600 yuan/MWh |
| Discount rate | 6％ | Penalty cost of new energy electricity limiting unit | 830 yuan/MWh |
| Positive and negative standby coefficient | 30％ | Forced load shedding unit penalty cost | 2000 yuan/MWh |
Table 2 6 thermal power generating unit parameters
| Sequence number | Access node | Rated capacity/MW | Climbing rate/(MW/h) | Minimum start-stop time/h |
| 1 | 30 | 500 | 250 | 2 |
| 2 | 31 | 400 | 200 | 2 |
| 3 | 32 | 400 | 200 | 2 |
| 4 | 35 | 350 | 170 | 2 |
| 5 | 36 | 300 | 150 | 2 |
| 6 | 37 | 250 | 100 | 2 |
The method for determining the flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme is carried out according to the following steps:
s1, determining a typical day set of each planning year in a planning year set, wherein the typical day set is obtained by using a k-means clustering algorithm according to historical operation data of new energy and load;
s2, solving a flexible resource multi-stage planning model by adopting a CPLEX solver according to a certain typical day data, the existing flexible resource configuration and the new energy installed capacity of a certain planning year, and repeating the steps until the typical day set of the planning year is traversed, so as to obtain a flexible resource planning scheme of the planning year;
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model consists of a planning stage, a day-ahead stage and an intra-day stage, wherein the planning stage is used for determining the condition of flexible resources to be planned according to flexible resource requirements, the day-ahead stage is used for determining a system scheduling strategy according to new energy predicted output and load requirements, the intra-day stage is used for determining the condition of flexible resource deployment reserve according to an intra-day scheduling result, the uncertainty of random variables is described by applying a scene tree in the intra-day stage, and the scene tree is generated as follows, as shown in fig. 3:
a. dividing each typical day into a plurality of subintervals according to the historical output data of the new energy of the typical day;
b. in order to acquire the fluctuation of new energy, the prediction error of new energy power generation is subjected to normal distribution, the new energy prediction value at the early stage is unique, a plurality of new energy output scenes are generated by sampling with a super pull Ding Lifang LHS in a sub-period, and then K-means clustering is adopted for the generated new energy output scenes, so that scene reduction is completed;
c. the predicted output at the day-ahead stage is taken as a root node, and a new energy output scene after being cut down in each subperiod is taken as a subnode, so that a scene tree is generated;
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model is:
minf＝f 1 +f 2 +f 3
in the above, f 1 、f 2 、f 3 Respectively represent the investment cost of the planning stage, the scheduling cost of the day-ahead stage and the operation cost of the day-in stage, omega b 、Ω g Respectively represents an energy storage power station set to be planned and a thermal power unit flexibility transformation set,unit investment cost for respectively representing flexibility transformation of energy storage power station and thermal power unit, < >>Respectively representing the new capacity of the energy storage power station and the thermal power unit for flexible transformation, y and r respectively representing the service life and the discount rate of the new flexible resources,respectively representUnit start-up cost, shut-down cost and fuel cost of the j-th thermal power generating unit, +.>Respectively representing the prescheduled output and the deployment reserve capacity of the j thermal power generating unit in the day-ahead stage and the day-in stage,respectively representing the unit operation cost, the charging power in the daytime and the discharging power in the daytime of the kth energy storage power station,>the unit compensation cost of the interruptible load at the ith node and the interruption quantity of the demand response participated in the daytime phase are respectively represented by +.>Respectively represents penalty cost factors of limiting electricity and forced load of the new energy,respectively representing the new energy power limit quantity of the mth new energy unit in the daily stage and the forced cut load quantity at the ith node, wherein T represents the simulation running time, omega and N ω Respectively represent the omega-th scene in the daily stage scene tree, the fields Jing Jige, ρ in the daily stage scene tree ω Represents the omega scene probability, N g 、N b 、N d 、N re Respectively representing a thermal power unit set, an energy storage power station set, a load node set and a new energy unit set;
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model comprises planning stage constraint, day-ahead stage constraint, new energy installation duty ratio constraint and generating capacity duty ratio constraint, wherein the planning stage constraint comprises flexible resource planning capacity constraint and system positive and negative standby constraint, the flexible resource planning capacity constraint comprises energy storage power station planning capacity constraint and thermal power flexibility transformation planning capacity constraint, the day-ahead stage constraint comprises day-ahead stage power flow constraint, day-ahead stage new energy constraint, thermal power unit constraint and day-ahead stage energy storage power station constraint, the day-ahead stage power flow constraint comprises day-ahead stage node active balance constraint and day-ahead stage branch power flow constraint, the day-ahead stage constraint comprises day-ahead stage power flow constraint, thermal power unit deployment standby capacity constraint, day-ahead stage energy storage power station constraint, day-ahead stage new energy constraint and system constraint, the day-ahead stage power flow constraint comprises day-ahead stage node active balance constraint and day-stage branch power flow constraint, the system constraint comprises demand response type interruptible load limit and system flexibility supply and demand planning capacity constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively represent the upper limit and the lower limit of the construction capacity of the newly added kth energy storage power station, and the +.>Representing the newly increased installed capacity of the kth energy storage power station on day d, < >>Respectively representing the final installed capacity and the existing installed capacity of the kth energy storage power station; the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the
The thermal power flexibility transformation planning capacity constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,represents the newly increased flexibility of the jth thermal power generating unit on the d day to reform the capacity, < + >>Representing the minimum technical output of the jth thermal power unit on the d day, < >>Respectively representing the minimum technical output of the j-th thermal power generating unit after the modification of flexibility is not implemented and implemented,/->The flexible reconstruction scheme of the j thermal power generating unit on the d day and the d-1 day is shown;
the positive and negative standby constraint of the system is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively maximum load value, positive standby requirement coefficient and negative standby requirement coefficient, < ->Maximum technical output for the j-th thermal power unit,/->Representing the installed capacity of new energy source,/->Providing negative standby capacity coefficients for the jth thermal power unit and the kth energy storage power station respectively,/->The maximum charge and discharge power of the kth energy storage power station is respectively;
the node active balance constraint in the day-ahead stage is as follows:
in the above，Representing the output of a thermal power unit at t time in a typical day>Respectively represents the predicted power and the pre-limit power of the mth new energy unit,/new energy unit>Respectively represents the pre-charge and discharge power of the kth energy storage power station,respectively representing the load at the ith node, the voltage phase of the ith node and the voltage phase of the nth node;
the current constraint of the branch circuit of the day-ahead stage is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,indicating the upper power limit of the system branch in which circulation is allowed, B in For node susceptance matrix, < >> Λ i Respectively representing a thermal power unit set, a new energy set, an energy storage power station set and a node set which are connected with the ith node;
the new energy constraint at the day-ahead stage is as follows:
the thermal power generating unit is constrained as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,represents the lowest output lower limit of the thermal power unit which considers the start-stop state and the flexibility transformation,the variable M represents a large constant and is a variable of 0-1 of the starting and stopping states of the jth thermal power generating unit at the time t and the time t-1 respectively>The maximum upward and downward climbing rates of the jth thermal power generating unit are respectively +.>The unit start-up and shut-down costs of the j-th thermal power generating unit, minUp i 、MinDn i Respectively the minimum start-up and shut-down time intervals allowed by the j-th thermal power generating unit;
the constraint of the day-ahead phase energy storage power station is as follows:
/>
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,0-1 variable representing charge and discharge state of kth energy storage power station at t moment, +.> SOC k The upper limit and the lower limit of the charge state of the energy storage power station are respectively +.>The electric quantity state of the kth energy storage power station at the time t and the time t-1,energy level of kth energy storage station at the start and end of a typical day, respectively +.>Respectively charging and discharging efficiency of the energy storage power station, wherein deltat is a scheduling time gap;
the node active balance in the intra-day stage is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,the method respectively represents the standby capacity of the j thermal power generating unit deployment at the t moment of the omega day scene, the charging power of the k energy storage power station, the discharging power of the k energy storage power station, the active output of the m new energy generating unit, the limited electric quantity of the m new energy generating unit, the load at the i node and the voltage phase of the i node, and the load at the i node and the voltage phase of the i node>The voltage phase of the nth node of the system in the omega scene of the day period is as high as possible;
the daily phase branch tidal current constraint is as follows:
the thermal power generating unit deployment reserve capacity limit is as follows:
the constraints of the energy storage power station in the daytime are as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively the time t and the time t-1 of the kth energy storage power station in the omega day sceneThe state of charge of the etching;
the new energy constraint at the day-ahead stage is as follows:
/>
the demand response class interruptible load limit is:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,an upper interruptible load limit at the ith node;
the system flexibility supply and demand constraint is as follows:
in the above, gamma U 、γ D Respectively representing that the up-and-down flexibility allowed by the system is insufficient to expect the upper limit coefficient;
the new energy installation duty ratio constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively represent the installed capacity of new energy sources in the y-th year, the installed capacity of a thermal power unit, and alpha y The installation ratio requirement of new energy is met for the y th year;
the generated energy duty ratio constraint is as follows:
in the above, beta t The energy generation capacity of new energy in the t-th year is required,respectively representing the actual power generation amount of the new energy source and the thermal power generating unit in the t year;
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model should satisfy unexpected conditions:
in the above formula, x is a decision variable set required to meet unexpected conditions in the intra-day stage,decision variable set for intra-day phase scene ω, +.>For intra-day phase scene->Decision variable set of (2), and scene->Included in scene ω;
the typical day data comprises new energy day-ahead stage data, intra-day stage scene tree and load data of a typical day, and the new energy installed capacity is calculated according to the following formula:
new energy installation capacity ratio = new energy installation capacity/(new energy installation capacity + legacy machine installation capacity);
s4, judging whether the new energy generating capacity duty ratio of the planning year under the planning scheme obtained in the step S3 reaches the preset new energy generating capacity duty ratio, if not, entering the step S5, and if so, entering the step S6;
s5, after the new energy installation capacity is increased, returning to the step S2;
s6, circularly repeating the steps S2-S5 until the completion of the set traversal of the planning year, outputting a flexible resource planning scheme, wherein the flexible resource planning scheme is shown in fig. 4, and calculating to obtain flexible resource investment cost (f 1), running cost (f2+f3) and total cost (f) under the flexible resource planning scheme, wherein the flexible resource investment cost (f 1), the running cost (f2+f3) and the total cost (f) are shown in fig. 5;
as can be seen from fig. 4 and fig. 5, the flexible resource planning scheme obtained by the embodiment is to invest in thermal power, modify the flexibility and then invest in energy storage, and the investment cost in the planning period is increased year by year while the operation cost and the total cost are reduced year by year; the method is characterized in that the thermal power generating unit with lower cost is flexibly transformed and then stores energy with higher investment cost along with the improvement of the installed capacity ratio of new energy in the planning period, so that the investment cost can be increased year by year, meanwhile, the low-cost new energy is greatly permeated in power generation along with the improvement of the bearing capacity of the new energy, and the traditional energy output of high-cost thermal power and the like is reduced, so that the running cost and the total cost are reduced year by year; in summary, the method for determining the flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme has better adaptability, and can effectively improve the flexibility and the overall economy of the system.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme, characterized by:
the determining method sequentially comprises the following steps:
s1, determining a typical day set of a planning year;
s2, solving a flexible resource multi-stage planning model according to a certain typical day data, existing flexible resource allocation and new energy installed capacity, wherein the flexible resource multi-stage planning model is constructed by taking the minimum sum of planning stage investment cost, day-ahead stage scheduling cost and day-in stage operation cost as a target;
and S3, repeating the step S2 until the typical day set is traversed, and obtaining a flexible resource allocation planning scheme for planning years.
2. A method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme in accordance with claim 1, wherein:
the determining method further comprises the following steps:
s4, judging whether the new energy generating capacity duty ratio of the planning year under the planning scheme obtained in the step S3 reaches the preset new energy generating capacity duty ratio, if not, entering the step S5, and if so, entering the step S6;
s5, after the new energy installation capacity is increased, returning to the step S2;
and S6, outputting a flexible resource planning scheme for planning years.
3. A method of determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that:
in step S2, the flexible resource multi-stage planning model is:
minf＝f 1 +f 2 +f 3
in the above, f 1 、f 2 、f 3 Respectively represent the investment cost of the planning stage, the scheduling cost of the day-ahead stage and the operation cost of the day-in stage, omega b 、Ω g Respectively represents an energy storage power station set to be planned and a thermal power unit flexibility transformation set,unit investment cost for respectively representing flexibility transformation of energy storage power station and thermal power unit, < >>Respectively representing the new capacity of the energy storage power station and the thermal power unit for flexible transformation, y and r respectively representing the service life and the discount rate of the new flexible resources,respectively representing the unit starting cost, shutdown cost and fuel cost of the j-th thermal power generating unit, +.>Respectively representing the prescheduled output and the deployment reserve capacity of the j thermal power generating unit in the day-ahead stage and the day-in stage,respectively representing the unit operation cost, the charging power in the daytime and the discharging power in the daytime of the kth energy storage power station,>the unit compensation cost of the interruptible load at the ith node and the interruption quantity of the demand response participated in the daytime phase are respectively represented by +.>Respectively represents penalty cost factors of limiting electricity and forced load of the new energy,respectively representing the new energy power limit quantity of the mth new energy unit in the daily stage and the forced cut load quantity at the ith node, wherein T represents the simulation running time, omega and N ω Respectively represent the omega-th scene in the daily stage scene tree, the fields Jing Jige, ρ in the daily stage scene tree ω Represents the omega scene probability, N g 、N b 、N d 、N re Respectively representing a thermal power unit set, an energy storage power station set, a load node set and a new energy unit set.
4. A method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme in accordance with claim 3, characterized by:
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model includes a planning stage constraint, a pre-day stage constraint, and an intra-day stage constraint, wherein,
the planning phase constraint comprises a planning capacity constraint of flexible resources and a system positive and negative standby constraint;
the day-ahead stage constraint comprises day-ahead stage tide constraint, day-ahead stage new energy constraint, thermal power unit constraint and day-ahead stage energy storage power station constraint;
the daily phase constraint comprises daily phase tide constraint, thermal power unit deployment reserve capacity limit, daily phase energy storage power station constraint, daily phase new energy constraint and system constraint.
5. The method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme of claim 4, wherein:
the planning capacity constraint of the flexible resource is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively represent the upper limit and the lower limit of the construction capacity of the newly added kth energy storage power station, and the +.>Representing the newly increased installed capacity of the kth energy storage power station on day d, < >>Respectively representing the final installed capacity, the existing installed capacity, the +.>Represents the newly increased flexibility of the jth thermal power generating unit on the d day to reform the capacity, < + >>Representing the minimum technical output of the jth thermal power unit on the d day, < >>Respectively representing the minimum technical output of the j-th thermal power generating unit after the modification of flexibility is not implemented and implemented,/->The flexible reconstruction scheme of the j thermal power generating unit on the d day and the d-1 day is shown;
the positive and negative standby constraint of the system is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively maximum load value, positive standby requirement coefficient and negative standby requirement coefficient, < ->Maximum technical output for the j-th thermal power unit,/->Representing the installed capacity of new energy source,/->Providing negative standby capacity coefficients for the jth thermal power unit and the kth energy storage power station respectively,/->The maximum charge and discharge power of the kth energy storage power station is respectively;
the day-ahead stage tide constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,representing the output of a thermal power unit at t time in a typical day>Respectively represents the predicted power and the pre-limit power of the mth new energy unit,/new energy unit>Respectively represents the pre-charge and discharge power of the kth energy storage power station,respectively represent the load at the ith node, the voltage phase magnitude of the nth node, and +.>Indicating the upper power limit of the system branch in which circulation is allowed, B in For node susceptance matrix, < >>Λ i Respectively representing a thermal power unit set, a new energy set, an energy storage power station set and a node set which are connected with the ith node;
the new energy constraint at the day-ahead stage is as follows:
the thermal power generating unit is constrained as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,representing consideration of start-stop status and flexibilityMinimum output lower limit of thermal power generating unit subjected to sexual transformation, < ->Respectively 0-1 variables of the start-stop state of the jth thermal power generating unit at the time t and the time t-1, M represents a large constant,the maximum upward and downward climbing rates of the jth thermal power generating unit are respectively +.>The unit start-up and shut-down costs of the j-th thermal power generating unit, minUp i 、MinDn i Respectively the minimum start-up and shut-down time intervals allowed by the j-th thermal power generating unit;
the constraint of the day-ahead phase energy storage power station is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,0-1 variable representing charge and discharge state of kth energy storage power station at t moment, +.> SOC k The upper limit and the lower limit of the charge state of the energy storage power station are respectively +.>The electric quantity state of the kth energy storage power station at the time t and the time t-1,energy level of kth energy storage station at the start and end of a typical day, respectively +.>Respectively charging and discharging efficiency of the energy storage power station, wherein deltat is a scheduling time gap;
the daily stage tide constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,the method respectively represents the standby capacity of the j thermal power generating unit deployment at the t moment of the omega day scene, the charging power of the k energy storage power station, the discharging power of the k energy storage power station, the active output of the m new energy generating unit, the limited electric quantity of the m new energy generating unit, the load at the i node and the voltage phase of the i node, and the load at the i node and the voltage phase of the i node>The voltage phase of the nth node of the system in the omega scene of the day period is as high as possible;
the thermal power generating unit deployment reserve capacity limit is as follows:
the constraints of the energy storage power station in the daytime are as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively the kth energy storage power station on the omega dayThe electric quantity states of the internal scene at the time t and the time t-1;
the new energy constraint at the day-ahead stage is as follows:
the system constraints are:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,is the upper limit of the interruptible load at the ith node, gamma U 、γ D Indicating that the up and down flexibility allowed by the system is not sufficient for the desired upper limit coefficient, respectively.
6. The method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme of claim 5, wherein:
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model should satisfy unexpected conditions:
in the above formula, x is a decision variable set required to meet unexpected conditions in the intra-day stage,decision variable set for intra-day phase scene ω, +.>For intra-day phase scene->Decision variable set of (2), and scene->Contained in scene ω.
7. A method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme in accordance with claim 3, characterized by:
the flexible resource multi-stage planning model also comprises new energy installation duty ratio constraint and power generation duty ratio constraint.
8. The method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme of claim 7, wherein:
the new energy installation duty ratio constraint is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,respectively represent the installed capacity of new energy sources in the y-th year, the installed capacity of a thermal power unit, and alpha y The installation ratio requirement of new energy is met for the y th year;
the generated energy duty ratio constraint is as follows:
in the above, beta y The energy generation capacity of new energy in the y-th year is required,and respectively representing the new energy source of the y-th year and the actual power generation amount of the thermal power generating unit.
9. A method of determining a flexible resource multistage planning scheme in accordance with claim 3, characterized by:
the method for generating the intra-day scene tree comprises the following steps:
a. dividing a typical day into a plurality of sub-periods according to the historical output data of the new energy of the typical day;
b. sampling sub-time periods to generate a plurality of new energy output scenes, and then clustering the generated new energy output scenes to finish scene reduction;
c. and generating a scene tree by taking the predicted output at the day-ahead stage as a root node and taking the new energy output scene after being cut down in each subperiod as a subnode.
10. A method of determining a flexible resource multi-stage planning scheme according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that:
in step S2, a CPLEX solver is adopted to solve a flexible resource multi-stage planning model.
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| CN117540882B (en) * | 2024-01-09 | 2024-03-15 | 国网经济技术研究院有限公司 | Power system day-ahead multi-stage optimal scheduling method based on random scene generation |
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