CN116402349A - Risk early warning method for cable trench pipe well - Google Patents
Risk early warning method for cable trench pipe well Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a risk early warning method for a cable trench pipe well, which comprises the steps of collecting environment data of a cable in real time through a preset sensor; carrying out normalization processing on the environmental data, and determining the probability of a fault state corresponding to each feature quantity in the environmental data; screening the maximum value in the probabilities of the fault states corresponding to the feature quantities, and taking the maximum value as the probability of various faults of the cable in the running state at the moment; grading the severity of the consequences caused by the faults caused by the operation of the cable according to the probability of various faults of the cable in the operation state at the moment, and determining corresponding risk values according to grading results; and matching the risk value with a preset risk grade division table, and determining corresponding early warning information according to a matching result. The method comprises the steps of establishing a risk early warning evaluation body for cable operation; providing corresponding auxiliary comments for the risk early warning visualization; and the possible faults of the cable during operation are prevented and predicted in time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk early warning of cable trench tube wells, in particular to a risk early warning method of a cable trench tube well.
Background
Along with the acceleration of the large-scale construction speed of the urban, the construction of corresponding urban auxiliary facilities is also rapidly developed, the power cable supply network is also rapidly developed, the underground power supply network with huge scale is distributed in a plurality of cables, and the requirements on the safe operation of the cables of the power departments and the accident prevention are also higher. At present, most power companies in the whole country are still in the stage of planned maintenance for the management of main cables in power tunnels and channels, and a regular inspection method is generally adopted for inspecting the operation condition of the cables. From both an economic and technical standpoint, planned overhauls have significant limitations, such as significant direct and indirect economic waste from periodic testing and overhauls, many insulation defects and potential failures cannot be found in time.
Because the underground power supply network of the urban power distribution network is large in distribution quantity, the management difficulty is high, and a plurality of outstanding problems exist. Underground cable environment is abominable, can't get electricity, signal interference, radio signal are unstable, do not have suitable supervisory equipment and power cable problem probably aftertreatment afterwards, can't do the prevention in advance, lead to the power failure alarm complaint too much, have reduced electric wire netting service quality. Particularly, a large amount of inspection work is performed in high-temperature and heavy-load seasons to safely prevent theft and damage of the well lid in the well, and accumulated water in the well, but the inspection work cannot be mastered in real time to prevent and predict in time.
At present, more cable running state evaluation methods exist, but a method and a system for carrying out risk early warning on a cable are still not perfect, a complete cable running risk early warning system is lacked, and a method for visualizing the risk early warning is lacked.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a risk early warning method for a cable trench pipe well, which solves the technical problems of how to perform risk assessment on a cable, better provide a judgment basis for implementation decision and planning construction of power professionals, and visually display the risk level.
In one aspect, a risk early warning method for a cable trench pipe well is provided, including:
acquiring environment data of the cable in real time through a preset sensor, wherein each characteristic quantity in the environment data at least comprises the temperature and humidity of the cable running environment, the temperature of a cable core, the grounding current and the local discharge capacity of the cable;
carrying out normalization processing on the environmental data, and determining the probability of a fault state corresponding to each feature quantity in the environmental data;
screening the maximum value in the probabilities of the fault states corresponding to the feature quantities, and taking the maximum value as the probability of various faults of the cable in the running state at the moment;
grading the severity of the consequences caused by the faults caused by the operation of the cable according to the probability of various faults of the cable in the operation state at the moment, and determining corresponding risk values according to grading results;
and matching the risk value with a preset risk grade division table, determining corresponding early warning information according to the matching result, and outputting a visual result corresponding to the early warning information.
Preferably, the method further comprises:
and forming a set of corresponding cable state characteristics by each characteristic quantity in the environment data measured at a certain moment and possible fault conditions which occur when the cable corresponding to each characteristic quantity operates:
wherein X is a state set of each characteristic quantity in the environment data, Y is a state set of possible fault conditions when the cable corresponding to each characteristic quantity operates,
to measure the cable running state versus state characteristic quantity x i Probability of->
For the operation state of the tested cable to the fault state y j Probability of x i (i=1, 2,3, 4) is a feature quantity, y, in the environmental data measured at a certain time j (j=1, 2,3,4, 5) is a possible fault condition occurring when the cable corresponding to each feature quantity is operated.
Preferably, the environment data is normalized according to the following formula:
where f (x) is a normalization result, x is each feature quantity in the environmental data, min (x) is a lower threshold value of normalization processing, and Max (x) is an upper threshold value of normalization processing.
Preferably, the probability of the fault state corresponding to each feature quantity in the environmental data is determined according to the following formula:
wherein P (x) is the probability of the fault state corresponding to each feature quantity, k is the probability calculation coefficient of the fault state, and n is the calculation coefficient of the probability calculation threshold of the fault state.
Preferably, the scoring the severity of the consequences of the faults caused by the operation of the cable according to the probability of various faults occurring in the operation state of the cable at the moment comprises:
processing the probability of various faults of the cable in the running state at the moment according to a preset normalization rule to obtain a probability normalization result eta i (i＝1，2，3，4)；
And scoring the probability normalization result to obtain a scoring result.
Preferably, the probability normalization result is scored according to the following formula:
wherein, psi is i To finally score value, ψ k And k is a scoring sequence number corresponding to a probability normalization result, and n is a maximum scoring number.
Preferably, the determining the corresponding risk value according to the scoring result includes:
the risk value is calculated according to the following formula:
where λ is the risk value.
Preferably, the matching the risk value with a preset risk classification table includes:
when the risk value is in a preset first risk value range, judging that the risk value is a first risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset second risk value range, judging that the risk value is a second risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset third risk value range, judging that the risk value is a third risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset fourth risk value range, judging that the risk value is a fourth risk level;
and when the risk value is in a preset fifth risk value range, judging as a fifth risk level.
Preferably, the determining the corresponding early warning information according to the matching result includes:
when the risk is at the first risk level, outputting first early warning information to be good in cable running state, and risk is avoided;
outputting second early warning information when the risk is at the second risk level, wherein the second early warning information is that the cable is in a normal running state, and the small probability can cause a small-range load power failure;
when the risk is at the third risk level, outputting third early warning information that the cable running state needs to be noticed, and the probability is high that a small-range load is powered off;
when the risk is at the fourth risk level, outputting fourth early warning information that the cable running state is abnormal, and causing load power failure in a large range;
when the risk is at the fifth risk level, outputting fifth early warning information to cause serious faults of the cable running state, and causing power failure of all loads.
Preferably, the method further comprises:
determining a risk assessment system when the cable runs according to the environment data when the cable runs collected in real time;
the risk assessment system at least comprises a target layer, an index layer and a barrier layer, wherein the target layer is used for comprehensively judging the risk level of a cable in operation, and the target layer at least comprises the temperature and humidity of an operation environment, the temperature of a cable core, the grounding current and the local discharge capacity of the cable; the index layer is used for reflecting an evaluation state quantity index corresponding to a fault possibly occurring during the operation of the cable; the fault layer is used for faults possibly occurring during the operation of the cable, and at least comprises cable firing, cable breakage, short-circuit faults, grounding faults and broken line faults.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the risk early warning method for the cable trench pipe well, a risk early warning evaluation system for cable operation is established, and the risk early warning evaluation system comprises the types of state feature quantities, sample data and risk early warning grades; visualizing the risk early warning and providing corresponding auxiliary treatment comments; the cable can prevent possible faults during the operation of the cable and has the function of timely prediction.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the invention or the technical solutions of the prior art, the drawings which are required in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described, it being obvious that the drawings in the description below are only some embodiments of the invention, and that it is within the scope of the invention to one skilled in the art to obtain other drawings from these drawings without inventive faculty.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk early warning method for a cable trench pipe well according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a logic schematic diagram of a risk early warning method for a cable trench well according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a risk assessment system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, for the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent.
Fig. 1 and fig. 2 are schematic diagrams of an embodiment of a risk early warning method for a raceway well according to the present invention. In this embodiment, the method comprises the steps of:
step S1, acquiring environment data of a cable in real time through a preset sensor, wherein each characteristic quantity in the environment data at least comprises the temperature and humidity of the cable running environment, the temperature of a cable core, the grounding current and the local discharge capacity of the cable; that is, real-time data of the above state quantity at the time of the cable operation and history data are collected by the sensor.
In a specific embodiment, determining a risk assessment system when the cable runs according to environment data when the cable runs acquired in real time;
as shown in fig. 3, the risk assessment system at least includes a target layer, an index layer, and a barrier layer, where the target layer is used to comprehensively evaluate risk levels of the cable during operation, and the target layer includes at least a temperature and humidity of an operation environment, a temperature of a cable core, a ground current, and a local discharge amount of the cable; the index layer is used for reflecting an evaluation state quantity index corresponding to a fault possibly occurring during the operation of the cable; the fault layer is used for faults possibly occurring during the operation of the cable, and at least comprises cable firing, cable breakage, short-circuit faults, grounding faults and broken line faults. It can be understood that the risk assessment system is established when the cable is operated by comprehensively considering the complex operation environment of the cable, the correlation with the risk assessment, the principles of easy acquisition and practicability and the like and combining the requirements of related standard regulations. Wherein, the evaluation index system is divided into three layers: the system comprises a target layer, an index layer and a barrier layer, wherein the target layer is used for comprehensively judging the risk level of the cable during operation; the index layer is an evaluation state quantity index corresponding to a fault possibly occurring during the operation of the reaction cable; wherein the barrier layer is a fault that may occur when the cable is in operation. The index layer comprises the temperature and humidity of the operation environment, the temperature of a cable core, the grounding current and the partial discharge capacity of the cable, and the fault layer comprises cable firing, cable breakage, short-circuit faults, grounding faults and broken line faults. The state characteristic quantity includes the following: temperature and humidity of the operation environment, temperature of the cable core, grounding current and partial discharge capacity of the cable.
Specifically, the above 4 kinds of monitoring data measured at a certain moment are respectively named as x i (i=1, 2,3, 4), and fault conditions (fire, break, short-circuit fault, ground fault and disconnection fault) which may occur when the cable is operated are respectively designated as y j (j=1, 2,3,4, 5). Based on this, a collective representation of the cable for the state features is obtained. Each feature quantity in the environmental data measured at a certain moment and possible fault conditions occurring when the cable corresponding to each feature quantity operates form a corresponding cable to state feature set:
wherein X is a state set of each characteristic quantity in the environment data, Y is a state set of possible fault conditions when the cable corresponding to each characteristic quantity operates,
to measure the cable running state versus state characteristic quantity x i Probability of->
For the operation state of the tested cable to the fault state y j Probability of x i (i=1, 2,3, 4) is a feature quantity, y, in the environmental data measured at a certain time j (j=1, 2,3,4, 5) is a possible fault condition occurring when the cable corresponding to each feature quantity is operated.
Step S2, carrying out normalization processing on the environmental data, and determining the probability of a fault state corresponding to each feature quantity in the environmental data; that is, the environment data is normalized, and the probability of the fault state corresponding to the feature quantity, namely the membership degree, is calculated by the membership degree function.
In a specific embodiment, the normalization processing is performed on the environmental data according to the following formula:
where f (x) is a normalization result, x is each feature quantity in the environmental data, min (x) is a lower threshold value of normalization processing, and Max (x) is an upper threshold value of normalization processing.
Determining the probability of a fault state corresponding to each feature quantity in the environment data according to the following formula:
wherein P (x) is the probability of the fault state corresponding to each feature quantity, k is the probability calculation coefficient of the fault state, and n is the calculation coefficient of the probability calculation threshold of the fault state. Wherein the larger P (x) is, the characteristic quantity x appears in the cable during operation i Post-membership to failure condition y j The higher the likelihood of (2); whereas the smaller P (x) indicates the lower the likelihood.
Specifically, 3) a fuzzy judgment matrix of 4X3 is constructed by membership degrees. Such as:
the comprehensive weights are determined by a combined weighting method, which is a method commonly used in the art, and the present invention will not be described in detail.
Step S3, screening the maximum value in the probabilities of the fault states corresponding to the feature quantities, and taking the maximum value as the probability of various faults of the running state of the cable at the moment; that is, based on the principle of maximum membership, the probability of various faults occurring in the running state of the cable at this time is calculated.
Step S4, scoring the severity degree of the consequences caused by the faults caused by the running of the cable according to the probability of various faults of the running state of the cable at the moment, and determining a corresponding risk value according to the scoring result; that is, for the convenience of calculation and comparison, the calculated probability of various faults occurring in the running state of the cable at this time is normalized.
In a specific embodiment, the probability of various faults occurring in the running state of the cable at the time is processed according to a preset normalization rule to obtain a probability normalization result eta i (i=1, 2,3, 4); and scoring the probability normalization result to obtain a scoring result.
Scoring the probability normalization result according to the following formula:
wherein, psi is i To finally score value, ψ k And k is a scoring sequence number corresponding to a probability normalization result, and n is a maximum scoring number. It will be appreciated that the scoring is 0-1 due to the varying severity of the consequences of the fault caused by the cable running]And to indicate the difference in severity of the fault. The scoring mode can adopt expert scoring or program scoring according to specific conditions, and n can represent the number of experts when the expert scoring is adopted.
Specifically, the risk value is calculated according to the following formula:
where λ is the risk value.
And S5, matching the risk value with a preset risk class division table, determining corresponding early warning information according to the matching result, and outputting a visual result corresponding to the early warning information. The risk classification is carried out on the cable based on the risk value, different risk classes are visualized, and the priority alarm with high risk class is given.
In a specific embodiment, the matching the risk value with a preset risk classification table includes:
when the risk value is in a preset first risk value range, judging that the risk value is a first risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset second risk value range, judging that the risk value is a second risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset third risk value range, judging that the risk value is a third risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset fourth risk value range, judging that the risk value is a fourth risk level;
and when the risk value is in a preset fifth risk value range, judging as a fifth risk level.
Wherein, the risk value is listed in the following table 1 for risk classification:
table 1 risk classification table
| Risk value | 0.0-0.1 | 0.2-0.4 | 0.4-0.6 | 0.6-0.8 | 0.8-1.0 |
| Risk level | Risk level v 1 | Risk level v 2 | Risk level v 3 | Risk level v 4 | Risk level v 5 |
Specifically, the determining the corresponding early warning information according to the matching result includes:
when the risk is at the first risk level, outputting first early warning information to be good in cable running state, and risk is avoided;
outputting second early warning information when the risk is at the second risk level, wherein the second early warning information is that the cable is in a normal running state, and the small probability can cause a small-range load power failure;
when the risk is at the third risk level, outputting third early warning information that the cable running state needs to be noticed, and the probability is high that a small-range load is powered off;
when the risk is at the fourth risk level, outputting fourth early warning information that the cable running state is abnormal, and causing load power failure in a large range;
when the risk is at the fifth risk level, outputting fifth early warning information to cause serious faults of the cable running state, and causing power failure of all loads.
The early warning information is visually displayed in the following table:
risk class Risk consequences advice on Risk
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the risk early warning method for the cable trench pipe well, a risk early warning evaluation system for cable operation is established, and the risk early warning evaluation system comprises the types of state feature quantities, sample data and risk early warning grades; visualizing the risk early warning and providing corresponding auxiliary treatment comments; the cable can prevent possible faults during the operation of the cable and has the function of timely prediction.
The foregoing disclosure is illustrative of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the scope of the invention, which is defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A risk early warning method for a cable trench pipe well, comprising:
acquiring environment data of the cable in real time through a preset sensor, wherein each characteristic quantity in the environment data at least comprises the temperature and humidity of the cable running environment, the temperature of a cable core, the grounding current and the local discharge capacity of the cable;
carrying out normalization processing on the environmental data, and determining the probability of a fault state corresponding to each feature quantity in the environmental data;
screening the maximum value in the probabilities of the fault states corresponding to the feature quantities, and taking the maximum value as the probability of various faults of the cable in the running state at the moment;
grading the severity of the consequences caused by the faults caused by the operation of the cable according to the probability of various faults of the cable in the operation state at the moment, and determining corresponding risk values according to grading results;
and matching the risk value with a preset risk grade division table, determining corresponding early warning information according to the matching result, and outputting a visual result corresponding to the early warning information.
2. The method as recited in claim 1, further comprising:
and forming a set of corresponding cable state characteristics by each characteristic quantity in the environment data measured at a certain moment and possible fault conditions which occur when the cable corresponding to each characteristic quantity operates:
wherein X is a state set of each characteristic quantity in the environment data, Y is a state set of possible fault conditions when the cable corresponding to each characteristic quantity operates,
to measure the cable running state versus state characteristic quantity x i Is a function of the probability of (1),
for the operation state of the tested cable to the fault state y j Probability of x i (i=1, 2,3, 4) is a feature quantity, y, in the environmental data measured at a certain time j (j=1, 2,3,4, 5) is a possible fault condition occurring when the cable corresponding to each feature quantity is operated.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the environmental data is normalized according to the following formula:
where f (x) is a normalization result, x is each feature quantity in the environmental data, min (x) is a lower threshold value of normalization processing, and Max (x) is an upper threshold value of normalization processing.
4. A method according to claim 3, wherein the probability of a fault condition corresponding to each feature in the environmental data is determined according to the following formula:
wherein P (x) is the probability of the fault state corresponding to each feature quantity, k is the probability calculation coefficient of the fault state, and n is the calculation coefficient of the probability calculation threshold of the fault state.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein scoring the severity of the consequences of the fault caused by the cable when operating according to the probability of various faults occurring in the cable at the time of operation comprises:
processing the probability of various faults of the cable in the running state at the moment according to a preset normalization rule to obtain a probability normalization result eta i (i＝1,2,3,4)；
And scoring the probability normalization result to obtain a scoring result.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the probability normalization result is scored according to the following formula:
wherein, psi is i To finally score value, ψ k And k is a scoring sequence number corresponding to a probability normalization result, and n is a maximum scoring number.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein determining the corresponding risk value based on the scoring result comprises:
the risk value is calculated according to the following formula:
where λ is the risk value.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein said matching the risk value to a pre-set risk classification table comprises:
when the risk value is in a preset first risk value range, judging that the risk value is a first risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset second risk value range, judging that the risk value is a second risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset third risk value range, judging that the risk value is a third risk level;
when the risk value is in a preset fourth risk value range, judging that the risk value is a fourth risk level;
and when the risk value is in a preset fifth risk value range, judging as a fifth risk level.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the determining the corresponding pre-warning information based on the matching result comprises:
when the risk is at the first risk level, outputting first early warning information to be good in cable running state, and risk is avoided;
outputting second early warning information when the risk is at the second risk level, wherein the second early warning information is that the cable is in a normal running state, and the small probability can cause a small-range load power failure;
when the risk is at the third risk level, outputting third early warning information that the cable running state needs to be noticed, and the probability is high that a small-range load is powered off;
when the risk is at the fourth risk level, outputting fourth early warning information that the cable running state is abnormal, and causing load power failure in a large range;
when the risk is at the fifth risk level, outputting fifth early warning information to cause serious faults of the cable running state, and causing power failure of all loads.
10. The method as recited in claim 1, further comprising:
determining a risk assessment system when the cable runs according to the environment data when the cable runs collected in real time;
the risk assessment system at least comprises a target layer, an index layer and a barrier layer, wherein the target layer is used for comprehensively judging the risk level of a cable in operation, and the target layer at least comprises the temperature and humidity of an operation environment, the temperature of a cable core, the grounding current and the local discharge capacity of the cable; the index layer is used for reflecting an evaluation state quantity index corresponding to a fault possibly occurring during the operation of the cable; the fault layer is used for faults possibly occurring during the operation of the cable, and at least comprises cable firing, cable breakage, short-circuit faults, grounding faults and broken line faults.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN117196319A (en) * | 2023-11-02 | 2023-12-08 | 合肥优尔电子科技有限公司 | Power grid risk identification analysis method, system and storage medium |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN117196319A (en) * | 2023-11-02 | 2023-12-08 | 合肥优尔电子科技有限公司 | Power grid risk identification analysis method, system and storage medium |
| CN117196319B (en) * | 2023-11-02 | 2024-01-19 | 合肥优尔电子科技有限公司 | Power grid risk identification analysis method, system and storage medium |
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