CN116383608A - Small sample equipment fault online prediction method - Google Patents
Small sample equipment fault online prediction method Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN116383608A CN116383608A CN202310356001.9A CN202310356001A CN116383608A CN 116383608 A CN116383608 A CN 116383608A CN 202310356001 A CN202310356001 A CN 202310356001A CN 116383608 A CN116383608 A CN 116383608A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- fault
- prediction
- data
- wtd
- online
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 50
- 238000000354 decomposition reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 61
- 238000004422 calculation algorithm Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 43
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 32
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 28
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 13
- 238000012549 training Methods 0.000 claims description 55
- 238000009499 grossing Methods 0.000 claims description 45
- 239000013598 vector Substances 0.000 claims description 40
- 230000003044 adaptive effect Effects 0.000 claims description 37
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 claims description 37
- 238000006731 degradation reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 37
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 24
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims description 23
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 claims description 22
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 claims description 19
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims description 17
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 claims description 14
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 13
- 102100021309 Elongation factor Ts, mitochondrial Human genes 0.000 claims description 9
- 101000895350 Homo sapiens Elongation factor Ts, mitochondrial Proteins 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000036541 health Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000007476 Maximum Likelihood Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000001419 dependent effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000001914 filtration Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000004904 shortening Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000012795 verification Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000005096 rolling process Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
- 230000009977 dual effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000002474 experimental method Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000013528 artificial neural network Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000009661 fatigue test Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002427 irreversible effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000010355 oscillation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F18/00—Pattern recognition
- G06F18/10—Pre-processing; Data cleansing
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F18/00—Pattern recognition
- G06F18/20—Analysing
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F18/00—Pattern recognition
- G06F18/20—Analysing
- G06F18/21—Design or setup of recognition systems or techniques; Extraction of features in feature space; Blind source separation
- G06F18/214—Generating training patterns; Bootstrap methods, e.g. bagging or boosting
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F18/00—Pattern recognition
- G06F18/20—Analysing
- G06F18/21—Design or setup of recognition systems or techniques; Extraction of features in feature space; Blind source separation
- G06F18/217—Validation; Performance evaluation; Active pattern learning techniques
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2218/00—Aspects of pattern recognition specially adapted for signal processing
- G06F2218/02—Preprocessing
- G06F2218/04—Denoising
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2218/00—Aspects of pattern recognition specially adapted for signal processing
- G06F2218/02—Preprocessing
- G06F2218/04—Denoising
- G06F2218/06—Denoising by applying a scale-space analysis, e.g. using wavelet analysis
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
- Bioinformatics & Cheminformatics (AREA)
- Bioinformatics & Computational Biology (AREA)
- Computer Vision & Pattern Recognition (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Evolutionary Biology (AREA)
- Evolutionary Computation (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Artificial Intelligence (AREA)
- Measurement Of Mechanical Vibrations Or Ultrasonic Waves (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses an online prediction method for faults of small sample equipment, which comprises the following prediction steps: s1, data processing: according to the invention, by providing a small sample equipment fault online prediction model and verifying the validity and reliability of the model through rolling bearing life cycle vibration data, the BIC can accurately find out the optimal decomposition layer number of the WTD algorithm, provide a basis for improving WTD model parameter setting, improve WTD model noise reduction effect, ensure fault data reliability, and the MD improved MEST algorithm and dual CSFI algorithm can effectively convert fault signals into fault degree indexes, thereby providing high-quality data guarantee for subsequent fault prediction.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of equipment fault prediction, in particular to an online small sample equipment fault prediction method.
Background
The fault prediction technology can be based on fault mechanism analysis, a fault occurrence mode is assumed, historical degradation data is utilized, potential fault information is deeply excavated, a prediction model based on physical or data driving is constructed, the prediction of the fault degree is realized, the method is based on equipment health state judgment, residual service life analysis and state maintenance, the equipment degradation presents larger difference, the early-stage faults are difficult to extract characteristics, the later-stage faults are difficult to reflect the current equipment health state, the quantity of fault data at the relatively recent moment is difficult to meet the requirement of fitting precision, the difficulty of fault prediction is increased, and the small-sample, fast-convergence and high-precision fault online prediction technology becomes a hot spot for research in the fault prediction field;
however, the current fault prediction technology has poor adaptability and poor fault prediction effect on equipment with high fault complexity, small sample data size and strong prediction timeliness.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an online fault prediction method for small sample equipment, which can effectively solve the problems of poor adaptability, high fault complexity, small sample data size and poor fault prediction effect of the equipment with strong prediction timeliness of the current fault prediction technology in the background technology.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: an online prediction method for faults of small sample equipment comprises the following prediction steps:
s1, data processing: through threshold function optimization in a WTD noise reduction algorithm and introduction of BIC, the influence of the number of decomposition layers on the complexity of the WTD is evaluated, and an improved WTD algorithm is provided for filtering noise in fault signals on line;
s2, fault degree identification: constructing a non-parameter model of a system or equipment through MEST, obtaining an estimated vector through optimal reconstruction estimation of an observed vector and a history memory matrix, reflecting the fault degree by utilizing the difference between the estimated vector and the observed vector, and introducing CSFI to carry out smoothing treatment;
s3, online fault prediction: by a TSFM non-statistical analysis method, accidental variation of data is eliminated, gradient descent on-line updating smoothing factors are introduced, self-adaptive sliding time window is introduced to dynamically intercept time sequence data, and fitting capacity of the TSFM is improved;
s4, experimental analysis: verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of the equipment fault prediction model under the condition of a small sample;
s5, data processing analysis: the complexity of the improved WTD algorithm with different decomposition layers is evaluated through a preset BIC;
s6, fault degree identification analysis: the improved WTD is used for obtaining each wavelet decomposition coefficient as an observation variable of an improved MEST, sampling frequency, health state and degradation state are set for carrying out recognition analysis on fault degree, double CSFI is adopted for processing data, and a 'sharp point' of which the derivative does not exist in a curve is eliminated, so that a fault degree point after smoothing is obtained;
s7, fault online test analysis: the method comprises the steps of presetting an adaptive sliding time window, an adaptive smoothing factor, a learning factor, the maximum training iteration number and the minimum allowable error, and inputting a smoothed bearing fault degree value into a fault online prediction model to obtain an adaptive smoothing factor change trend, an adaptive sliding time window length change trend and a prediction error change trend.
S8, summarizing prediction results: summarizing the effect of online prediction model fault prediction.
2. The online fault prediction method for small sample equipment according to claim 1, wherein in S1, the WTD algorithm is modified to filter noise in a fault signal online, and the principle is as follows:
wherein λ is a threshold value;
ω j,k wavelet coefficients for fault signals;
j is a decomposition scale, J is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to J, and J is a maximum scale;
sgn () is a sign function;
the threshold function has continuity in the wavelet domain when ω j,k →λ - In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,when omega j,k →λ + In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,
the threshold lambda should be chosen such that:
wherein N represents a signal length;
σ j the standard deviation of the Gaussian white noise of the j layer is expressed as follows:
in the formula, cd j,k A high frequency part which is the decomposition of the j-th layer wavelet;
p is the number of wavelet coefficients at the scale;
WTD considers that a fault signal exists in the low frequency part Ad j,k In which noise exists in the high-frequency portion Cd j,k In (a) and (b);
due to the amplitude of the noise following a gaussian distributionHigh frequency part Cd with maximum number of decomposition layers j,k To evaluate the data of the model complexity, BIC is introduced to evaluate the model complexity:
BIC=qln(N)-2ln(L)
wherein q is the number of model parameters;
n is the number of samples;
l is the maximum likelihood function obeying gaussian distribution, namely:
according to the above technical solution, in S2, the estimated vector and the observed vector are specifically calculated as follows:
let n interrelated variables in the plant be observed at a certain time t, and this is denoted as observation variable X t I.e.
X t =[x t,1 ,x t,2 …x t,n ] T
Wherein x is t,n The observation value of the state variable at the moment t;
constructing a history memory matrix D having m history moments, n associated state variables, i.e
From m observation vectors X in a history memory matrix D obs Can obtain an estimated vector X est I.e.
X est =DW=w 1 X 1 +w 2 X 2 …w m X m
Wherein W= [ W ] 1 ,w 2 ...w m ] T Is an m-dimensional weight vector representing the input observation vector X obs Similarity to the history matrix D, i.e
In the method, in the process of the invention,is a nonlinear operator used for replacing product operation in a common matrix;
will D T And X is obs The Mahalanobis Distance (MD) between them as a non-linear operator in MEST, i.e
In Sigma -1 An inverse matrix of the multidimensional random variable covariance matrix;
when the two state matrices are more similar, the smaller their MD is;
when the difference of the two state matrixes is larger, the nonlinear operation result is larger;
bringing the equation (9) into the equation (8) can obtain the final expression of the MEST model estimation vector as follows:
by contrasting the observation vector X obs And estimate vector X est The difference value between the two values can obtain a residual error value epsilon of the fault degree of the reaction equipment, namely:
ε=X est -X obs
the root mean square is selected to reflect the fault degree by comparing the using ranges of various fault indexes;
by taking n dimensions X est And X is obs The root mean square RMSV of the residual epsilon can obtain the fault degree index DR of the reaction equipment:
the equipment fault degree index DR obtained by using the MEST is composed of a plurality of discrete points, a curve formed by the DR comprises a plurality of sharp points with derivatives not existing, and CSFI is introduced for smoothing.
According to the above technical solution, in S3, the expression of TSFM is:
in the formula, DR t Is the original sequence data;
if T represents the predicted time period,the prediction value of the ith training at the time t+T is represented by the following prediction formula:
wherein:
by comparing the application range of various gradient descent algorithms, random gradient descent (SGD) adaptive updating smoothing factor is selectedThen the ith training adaptive smoothing factor of the t+t prediction +.>The expression of (2) is:
in the method, in the process of the invention,training the adaptive smoothing factor for the (i-1) th time of the t+T th time of prediction;
beta is a learning factor;
DR t+T t+T actual value;
in the method, in the process of the invention,the data length of the ith training time sequence predicted for the t+T time is the self-adaptive sliding time window;
drawing a sliding time window diagram, wherein data_mode_i is training Data of the ith training, data_test_i is test Data of the ith training,
wherein μ is an adjustment factor;
when the time series data does not fully reflect the fault information, i.e. the partial derivatives of the loss functionAlways in the same direction, then->Should continue to grow or decrease, < >>Maximum according to 1+mu times increase or 1-mu times shortening;
when the time series data can partially reflect fault information, i.e. partial derivatives of the loss functionThe non-uniformity is in the same direction, then->Length is dependent on->Is (are) direction of->In order of right->Length increase, ->When it is negative, it is added>The length is shortened;
selecting variance value VARV to represent final prediction error
Where len (T) is the number of index data of the degree of failure of the t+T th prediction.
According to the above technical scheme, in S3, the fault online prediction process is as follows:
step1: ith time of t+t time predictionTraining, the predictive model presets the ith-1 st sliding time window firstlyDividing the training Data data_mode_i and the test Data data_test_i of the ith training Data into +.>Andcarry-in prediction of the i-th training +.>A value;
step2: will beCarrying-in calculation of the loss function of the ith training +.>If the maximum circulation times maxtrans are met or smaller than the minimum error minerror, training is stopped, and if the conditions are not met, the adaptive smoothing factor +_is updated according to the formula and the formula>And an adaptive sliding time window->Step1 is repeated, and the t+t predicted i+1 training is started.
Step3: obtained from Step2Carrying in to obtain the final ∈>And calculating a prediction error e according to the formula.
According to the technical scheme, in the step S4, the bearing performance degradation data is taken as a verification object, the sampling frequency is set to be 25.6kHz/min, the radial force is 12kN, the rotating speed is 2100rpm, the operation is 157.44S, and the vibration signal in the horizontal direction is selected to reflect the fault degree of the bearing to be tested.
According to the above technical scheme, in S5, the WTD effects of different hierarchical layers are compared as follows:
when the number of wavelet decomposition layers j=7, the BIC value is minimum;
when the number j of wavelet decomposition layers is less than 7, the effect of improving WTD noise reduction is also enhanced along with the increase of j;
when the number of wavelet decomposition layers j is more than 7, the effect of improving WTD noise reduction is not obvious along with the increase of j;
when j=7, the improved WTD algorithm not only can ensure that the noise reduction effect meets the requirement, but also can effectively prevent the problem of excessive model complexity caused by excessive precision;
taking noise amplitude obeying Gaussian distribution as the basis for evaluating the complexity of the model, so that the high-frequency part Cd with the maximum decomposition layer number is obtained j,k Outputting, drawing a Gaussian white noise amplitude distribution diagram;
when j is less than 7, improving the high-frequency part Cd of the maximum decomposition layer number of WTD j,k Obeying Gaussian distribution, wherein the improved threshold value in WTD does not destroy the distribution characteristic of Gaussian white noise, namely wavelet decomposition is insufficient;
when j is more than or equal to 7, improving the high-frequency part Cd of the maximum decomposition layer number of WTD j,k Not obeying Gaussian distribution, the improvement of threshold in WTD destroys the distribution characteristic of Gaussian white noise, namely the wavelet decomposition is sufficient, which illustrates the feasibility of setting BIC to evaluate the decomposition layer number and presets the high-frequency part Cd of the highest Gao Xiaobo decomposition layer number j,k To evaluate the scientificity of the data;
the wavelet decomposition layer number j=7 is set to improve WTD to perform noise reduction processing on the bearing performance degradation data.
According to the above technical solution, in S6, the wavelet decomposition coefficients obtained by improving WTD are used as the observation variables X of the improved MEST t I.e. when j=7, X t =[Ca t,7 ,Cd t,7 ,Cd t,6 ,Cd t,5 ,Cd t,4 ,Cd t,3 ,Cd t,2 ,Cd t,1 ]Setting the sampling frequency fs=25600 Hz, i.e. 1 second, setting the bearing performance degradation data 2 seconds beforePut to a healthy state, i.e. history time m=2, history memory matrix d= [ X ] 1 ,X 2 ]The other moments are set to the performance degradation state every 2 seconds, i.e. the observation vector X obs Carrying in bearing performance degradation data, and totally evaluating 77 fault degrees DR;
meanwhile, in order to eliminate the 'sharp point' where a plurality of derivatives do not exist in the DR curve, double CSFI is adopted to process data, the interpolation number is 10 times of the original data quantity, and 7700 fault degree points after smoothing are obtained.
According to the above technical solution, in S7, the initial value of the preset adaptive sliding time window length is 100, the initial value of the adaptive smoothing factor α is 0.05, the learning factor β is 0.5, the maximum training iteration number maxtrans is 1000, and the minimum allowable error is 10 -8 Inputting the smoothed 7700 bearing fault degree DR values into a fault online prediction model, and comparing the change trend of the self-adaptive smoothing factor alpha, the change trend of the self-adaptive sliding time window length and the change trend of the prediction error e.
According to the above technical solution, in S8, the prediction result is summarized as follows:
BIC can accurately find out the optimal decomposition layer number of the WTD algorithm;
the improved WTD algorithm has excellent noise reduction effect;
the MD improved MEST algorithm and the double CSFI algorithm can effectively convert fault signals into fault degree indexes;
the provided online prediction model can realize online prediction of equipment faults.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the online fault prediction model of the small sample equipment is provided, the effectiveness and reliability of the model are verified through rolling bearing life cycle vibration data, BIC can accurately find out the optimal decomposition layer number of a WTD algorithm, a basis is provided for improving WTD model parameter setting, the improved WTD algorithm has excellent noise reduction effect, the reliability of fault data is guaranteed, the improved MD MEST algorithm and the double CSFI algorithm can effectively convert fault signals into fault degree indexes, high-quality data guarantee is provided for subsequent fault prediction, the provided online fault prediction model with the self-adaptive intercepting fault data length of a sliding time window and the self-adaptive updating of parameters can continuously mine potential fault degree information in data, online fault prediction of equipment faults is achieved, and the online fault prediction of additional equipment with high fault complexity, small sample data quantity and strong prediction timeliness is met.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate the invention and together with the embodiments of the invention, serve to explain the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a step diagram of an equipment failure online prediction model of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a WTD of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a sliding time window of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of the fault online prediction of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a bearing fatigue test stand according to the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a graph of an experimental bearing amplitude signal according to the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a chart of BIC value variation according to the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a graph of the WTD effect of different number of decomposition layers according to the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a Gaussian white noise amplitude distribution diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a graph comparing the effects of various WTD of the present invention;
FIG. 11 is a graph showing the trend of DR values over the life of the bearing of the present invention;
FIG. 12 is a graph of the trend of the adaptive alpha value change according to the present invention;
FIG. 13 is a graph of the trend of the adaptive sliding time window length of the present invention;
FIG. 14 is a graph of the trend of prediction error according to the present invention;
FIG. 15 is a graph of predicted fit effects of the present invention;
fig. 16 is a step diagram of the fault test of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, it being understood that the preferred embodiments described herein are for illustration and explanation of the present invention only, and are not intended to limit the present invention.
Examples: as shown in fig. 1 and 16, the present invention provides a technical solution, an online prediction method for faults of small sample equipment, which includes the following prediction steps:
s1, data processing:
the common noise reduction algorithms include Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and WTD;
the fundamental principle of EMD is that a fault signal is decomposed into eigenmode functions (IMFs) of each order, and then the characteristics of the fault signal are extracted from the eigenmode functions, but under the background of a large amount of noise, the EMD algorithm has the problems of mode aliasing, end effect and the like;
the WTD mainly comprises a hard threshold noise reduction method and a soft threshold noise reduction method, although the number of wavelet decomposition layers of the WTD is determined empirically, a hard threshold function is discontinuous, oscillation is easy to generate after noise reduction, a soft threshold noise reduction wavelet coefficient has deviation, and the problem of large error of a reconstructed signal is easy to cause, but the WTD and an improved algorithm thereof are widely applied to fault online prediction due to small calculated amount and high noise reduction efficiency, for example, noise in a signal is effectively filtered through improving the wavelet threshold function, the signal to noise ratio of an output signal is improved, but the noise reduction effect is required to be improved and how the number of wavelet decomposition layers is determined;
therefore, by optimizing a threshold function in the WTD and introducing BIC to evaluate the influence of the number of decomposition layers on the complexity of the WTD, an improved WTD algorithm for filtering noise in fault signals on line is provided, and the principle is as follows:
wherein λ is a threshold value;
ω j,k wavelet coefficients for fault signals;
j is a decomposition scale, J is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to J, and J is a maximum scale;
sgn () is a sign function;
the threshold function has continuity in the wavelet domain when ω j,k →λ - In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,when omega j,k →λ + In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,
the threshold lambda should be chosen such that:
wherein N represents a signal length;
σ j the standard deviation of the Gaussian white noise of the j layer is expressed as follows:
in the formula, cd j,k A high frequency part which is the decomposition of the j-th layer wavelet;
p is the number of wavelet coefficients at the scale;
as shown in fig. 2, WTD considers that a fault signal exists in the low frequency part Ad j,k In which noise exists in the high-frequency portion Cd j,k In (a) and (b);
since the amplitude of the noise follows Gaussian distribution, the layer number high-frequency part Cd is decomposed maximally j,k In order to evaluate the complexity data of the model, BIC is introduced to evaluate the complexity of the model, so that the complexity of the model is effectively reduced under the condition that the noise reduction precision is met
BIC=q ln(N)-2 ln(L)
Wherein q is the number of model parameters;
n is the number of samples;
l is the maximum likelihood function subject to Gaussian distribution, i.e
S2, fault degree identification:
the method has the core ideas of constructing a non-parameter model of the system or the equipment, obtaining an estimated vector by carrying out optimal reconstruction estimation on an observed vector and a history memory matrix, and reflecting the fault degree of the system or the equipment by utilizing the difference between the estimated vector and the observed vector, wherein compared with a neural network, the method has the advantages of small calculated amount, definite physical meaning of the model and simple structure of the model;
let n interrelated variables in the plant be observed at a certain time t, and this is denoted as observation variable X t I.e.
X t =[x t,1 ,x t,2 …x t,n ] T
Wherein x is t,n The observation value of the state variable at the moment t;
constructing a history memory matrix D having m history moments, n associated state variables, i.e
From m observation vectors X in a history memory matrix D obs Can obtain an estimated vector X est I.e.
X est =DW=w 1 X 1 +w 2 X 2 …w m X m
Wherein W= [ W ] 1 ,w 2 …w m ] T Is an m-dimensional weight vector representing the input observation vector X obs Similarity to the history matrix D, i.e
In the method, in the process of the invention,is a nonlinear operator used for replacing product operation in a common matrix to avoid +.>The irreversible phenomenon generated expands the application range;
to improve the multidimensional data processing capacity of the MEST algorithm, D is adopted T And X is obs The Mahalanobis Distance (MD) between them as a non-linear operator in MEST, i.e
In Sigma -1 As the inverse matrix of the multidimensional random variable covariance matrix, it can be seen intuitively that the smaller the MD is when the two state matrices are more similar;
when the difference of the two state matrixes is larger, the nonlinear operation result is larger;
bringing the expression (9) into the expression (8) can obtain the final expression of the MEST model estimation vector as follows
By contrasting the observation vector X obs And estimate vector X est The difference value between the two values can intuitively obtain the residual error value epsilon of the fault degree of the reaction equipment, namely
ε=X est -X obs
By comparing the use ranges of various fault indexes, the root mean square is selected to reflect the fault degree, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 error indicator table
Wherein VARV is a variance value;
RMSV is root mean square;
SF is a form factor;
MF is a marginal factor;
e is energy;
SE is shannon entropy;
RE is kernel entropy;
TE is the Morse entropy;
by taking n dimensions X est And X is obs RMSV of residual epsilon, the reaction equipment failure degree index DR can be obtained:
because the equipment fault degree index DR obtained by using the MEST is formed by a plurality of discrete points, the curve formed by the DR inevitably comprises a plurality of sharp points with no derivative, the difficulty of fault prediction is greatly increased, the CSFI can directly construct a relation by using the smoothness and the connection condition of the joints of each node, the undetermined coefficient is determined, an interpolation polynomial is constructed, and the operation of smoothing the curve with the sharp points is completed.
S3, online fault prediction:
the TSFM is a non-statistical analysis method, can eliminate accidental variation of data, improves importance degree of recent data in prediction, accords with objective rules of the data in fault prediction, is particularly suitable for short-term or medium-long term fault online prediction due to small data demand, simple calculation process and convenient model construction, but severely limits effect of fault prediction due to lack of discrimination capability of data turning points and excessive subjectivity of selection of smoothing factors, so that gradient descent online updating of the smoothing factors is introduced, adaptive sliding time window dynamic interception of time sequence data is introduced, fitting capability of the TSFM is improved, and TSFM expression is as follows:
in the formula, DR t Is the original sequence data;
if T represents the predicted time period,the prediction value of the ith training at the time t+T is represented by the following prediction formula:
wherein:
by comparing the application range of various gradient descent algorithms, random gradient descent (SGD) adaptive updating smoothing factor is selectedAs shown in table 2:
table 2 gradient descent algorithm comparison table
Wherein, BGD is Batch Gradient Descent (BGD), momentum-SGD is random gradient descent with Momentum (SGDM);
in the method, in the process of the invention,training the adaptive smoothing factor for the (i-1) th time of the t+T th time of prediction;
beta is a learning factor;
DR t+T t+T actual value;
as shown in fig. 3, in the formula,the data length of the ith training time sequence predicted for the t+T time is the self-adaptive sliding time window;
in fig. 6, data_mode_i refers to training Data of the ith training, data_test_i refers to test Data of the ith training,
wherein μ is an adjustment factor;
is readily available by the sum (18), when the time series data does not fully reflect the fault information, i.e. the bias of the loss functionGuide railAlways in the same direction, then->Should continue to grow or decrease to meet the need for extracting fault information,/or->Maximum according to 1+mu times increase or 1-mu times shortening; />
When the time series data can partially reflect fault information, i.e. partial derivatives of the loss functionThe non-uniformity is in the same direction, then->Length is dependent on->Is (are) direction of->In order of right->Length increase, ->When it is negative, it is added>The length is shortened.
The selected VARV represents the final prediction error
Where len (T) is the number of index data of the degree of failure of the t+T th prediction.
As shown in fig. 4, step1: ith training of t+T prediction, when the predictive model slides the ith-1 th presetWindowDividing the training Data data_mode_i and the test Data data_test_i of the ith training Data into +.>And->Carry-in prediction of the i-th training +.>A value;
step2: will beCarrying-in calculation of the loss function of the ith training +.>If the maximum circulation times maxtrans are met or smaller than the minimum error minerror, training is stopped, and if the conditions are not met, the adaptive smoothing factor +_is updated according to the formula and the formula>And an adaptive sliding time window->Repeating Step1, and starting the i+1 training of the t+T prediction;
step3: obtained from Step2Carrying in to obtain the final ∈>And calculating a prediction error e according to the formula.
S4, experimental analysis:
in order to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the equipment failure prediction model under the condition of a small sample in one step, the rolling bearing performance degradation data is utilized for analysis and verification;
as shown in fig. 5, in order to obtain bearing fault data with the model LDK UER204, two PCB 352C33 accelerometers are placed on the housing of the bearing to be tested, with an included angle of 90 ° therebetween, i.e. one is placed on the horizontal axis, the other is placed on the vertical axis, the sampling frequency is set to 25.6kHz/min, the radial force is 12kN, the rotation speed is 2100rpm, and the operation is 157.44s, because the load is applied in the horizontal direction, the accelerometer in this direction can more accurately reflect the degradation information of the bearing to be tested, so that the vibration signal in the horizontal direction is selected to reflect the fault degree of the bearing to be tested;
as shown in fig. 6, in the early stage of the bearing performance degradation experiment, the amplitude change is not large, and the bearing is in the normal operation stage, namely before the point a, but contains a large amount of noise signals at the moment;
in the later stage of performance degradation experiment, the bearing amplitude increases along with the increase of working time, the bearing is in the performance degradation stage, namely, between the point a and the point c, and the detected signal contains a large amount of bearing performance degradation signals and noise signals;
at the end of the performance degradation experiment, the amplitude of the bearing is suddenly increased, and the bearing is in a fault stage, namely after the point c;
therefore, whether the influence of noise signals can be removed or not, the bearing performance degradation time a and the failure time c are accurately judged, the trend of the bearing degradation performance is truly reflected, and ensuring higher prediction precision and shorter prediction time is the key point for verifying the proposed model.
S5, data processing analysis:
as shown in fig. 7 and 8, the complexity of the improved WTD algorithm with different decomposition levels is evaluated by preset BIC;
when the number of wavelet decomposition layers j=7, the BIC value is minimum;
when the number j of wavelet decomposition layers is less than 7, the effect of improving WTD noise reduction is also enhanced along with the increase of j;
when the number of wavelet decomposition layers j is more than 7, the effect of improving WTD noise reduction is not obvious along with the increase of j;
therefore, when j=7, the improved WTD algorithm not only can ensure that the noise reduction effect meets the requirement, but also can effectively prevent the problem of excessive model complexity caused by excessive precision;
as shown in FIG. 9, the noise amplitude obeys Gaussian distribution and is used as the basis for evaluating the complexity of the model, so that the maximum decomposition layer number high-frequency part Cd j,k Outputting;
when j is less than 7, improving the high-frequency part Cd of the maximum decomposition layer number of WTD j,k Obeying Gaussian distribution, wherein the improved threshold value in WTD does not destroy the distribution characteristic of Gaussian white noise, namely wavelet decomposition is insufficient;
when j is more than or equal to 7, improving the high-frequency part Cd of the maximum decomposition layer number of WTD j,k Not obeying the gaussian distribution, at this time, improving the threshold in WTD destroys the distribution characteristics of gaussian white noise, i.e. wavelet decomposition is sufficient;
thus, the feasibility of setting the BIC evaluation decomposition level and the high frequency part Cd of presetting the maximum Gao Xiaobo decomposition level are illustrated j,k To evaluate the scientificity of the data;
as shown in fig. 10, the wavelet decomposition level j=7 is set to propose an improved WTD and an improved WTD (referred to simply as an improved WTD) to perform noise reduction processing on the bearing performance degradation data;
in fig. 10, (1), (4), (2), (5), (3), (6) are respectively an original time domain diagram of bearing performance degradation, an original spectrogram, a time domain diagram after WTD noise reduction, a spectrogram after WTD noise reduction, a time domain diagram after WTD noise reduction, and a frequency domain diagram after WTD noise reduction;
the noise reduction effect of the improved WTD algorithm is superior to that of the quoted improved WTD algorithm, the influence of noise in the normal operation stage can be greatly restrained, the bearing fault degree information in the performance degradation stage and the fault stage can be reserved, and the starting time of the performance degradation stage and the fault generation stage can be accurately judged.
S6, fault degree identification analysis:
as shown in FIG. 11, each wavelet decomposition coefficient obtained by modifying WTD is used as an observation variable X of modified MEST t I.e. when j=7, X t =[Ca t,7 ,Cd t,7 ,Cd t,6 ,Cd t,5 ,Cd t,4 ,Cd t,3 ,Cd t,2 ,Cd t,1 ]Setting a sampling frequencyfs=25600 Hz, i.e. 1 second, the first 2 seconds of the bearing performance degradation data is set to a healthy state, i.e. the history time m=2, the history memory matrix d= [ X 1 ,X 2 ]The other moments are set to the performance degradation state every 2 seconds, i.e. the observation vector X obs Carrying in bearing performance degradation data, and totally evaluating 77 fault degrees DR;
meanwhile, in order to eliminate the 'sharp point' where a plurality of derivatives do not exist in the DR curve, double CSFI is adopted to process data, the interpolation number is 10 times of the original data quantity, and 7700 fault degree points after smoothing are obtained;
fig. 11 (1), (2), and (3) are graphs of degradation of bearing performance, a failure degree DR, and a post-smoothing failure degree DR, respectively;
as can be seen from fig. 11 (1) and (2), when the performance of the bearing is degraded at the point a, the fault degree DR is increased at the same time, the improved MEST model can accurately determine the starting time of the performance degradation stage, and can increase the value of the fault degree DR immediately before the fault occurrence point c and at the fault occurrence point b, and give an early warning signal;
as can be seen from fig. 11 (2) and (3), the adopted dual CSFI algorithm can eliminate the sharp points in the curve, where the derivative does not exist, without changing the trend of the original fault degree DR curve, so as to enhance the predictability of the data.
S7, online fault prediction analysis:
the experimental hardware CPU is i7-10875H, the running memory is 32GB, the display card is RTX2060, the preset self-adaptive sliding time window length initial value is 100, the self-adaptive smoothing factor alpha initial value is 0.05, the learning factor beta is 0.5, the maximum training iteration number maxtrans is 1000 times, and the minimum allowable error is 10 -8 Inputting the smoothed 7700 bearing fault degree DR values into a fault online prediction model, and then adapting to the change trend of the smoothing factor alpha, the change trend of the length of the self-adapting sliding time window length and the change trend of the prediction error e.
As shown in fig. 12, in the normal operation stage, that is, before point a, the variation amplitude of the DR value of the bearing failure degree is small, and the adaptive smoothing factor α in this stage is quickly stabilized to operate around 0.5 except for the short adjustment in the early stage;
after the performance degradation stage, namely point a, the self-adaptive smoothing factor alpha changes obviously along with the increase of the fault degree DR, and the self-adaptive smoothing factor alpha is adjusted more severely at the moment b when the bearing is detected to be in fault, which shows that the proposed self-adaptive smoothing factor alpha can change along with the fault degree DR in real time, accurately judges the point a of the performance degradation moment and the moment b of the complete fault, has strong optimizing capability and meets the requirement of online prediction of the fault.
As shown in fig. 13, in the normal operation stage, that is, before point a, the variation amplitude of the bearing failure degree DR value is small, and the adaptive sliding time window length in this stage is stabilized at about an initial value of 100;
after the performance degradation stage, namely the point a, the performance degradation data in the normal operation stage cannot represent the failure degree of the bearing at the moment and even generate a negative effect along with the increase of the failure degree DR, so that the length of the self-adaptive sliding time window length is rapidly shortened, and small-range fluctuation begins to be generated at the point b when the bearing is detected to be failed, which indicates that the proposed self-adaptive sliding time window length can be changed along with the failure degree DR in real time, the sliding time window length is kept stable in the stable stage, the sliding time window length is rapidly adjusted in the severe change stage, the point a of the performance degradation moment and the point b of the failure moment can be accurately judged, and the requirement of online failure prediction is met;
as shown in fig. 14 and 15, the variation trend of the prediction error e is similar to the variation trend of the bearing fault degree DR, that is, the error gradually increases along with the complexity of the variation trend of the fault degree DR, the increase of the error at the point b at the moment of impending fault is obvious, the variation trend of the adaptive smoothing factor α and the adaptive sliding time window length is met, the prediction value almost coincides with the actual value, the final prediction error e=0.068%, the fitting precision is high, and the requirement of online fault prediction is met.
Under the experimental condition, the single average prediction time is about 0.0277s, the single average prediction time is about 1.385% of the interval time of the two fault degrees DR, namely, the model can give the prediction result of the equipment fault degree in a shorter time, the prediction time is shorter, and the requirement of fault prediction is met.
S8, summarizing prediction results:
aiming at the equipment fault prediction problems of high fault complexity, small sample data size and strong prediction timeliness, a small sample equipment fault online prediction model is provided, the effectiveness and reliability of the model are verified through rolling bearing life cycle vibration data, and the prediction results are summarized as follows:
(1) The BIC can accurately find out the optimal decomposition layer number of the WTD algorithm, and provides a basis for improving the parameter setting of the WTD model;
(2) The improved WTD algorithm has excellent noise reduction effect, and the reliability of fault data is ensured;
(3) The MD improved MEST algorithm and the double CSFI algorithm can effectively convert fault signals into fault degree indexes, and high-quality data guarantee is provided for subsequent fault prediction;
(4) The provided fault online prediction model with the sliding time window self-adaptive intercepting fault data length and parameter self-adaptive updating can continuously mine potential fault degree information in the data, and realize online prediction of equipment faults.
Finally, it should be noted that: the foregoing is merely a preferred example of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto, but it is to be understood that modifications and equivalents of some of the technical features described in the foregoing embodiments may be made by those skilled in the art, although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. An online prediction method for faults of small sample equipment is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following prediction steps:
s1, data processing: through threshold function optimization in a WTD noise reduction algorithm and introduction of BIC, the influence of the number of decomposition layers on the complexity of the WTD is evaluated, and an improved WTD algorithm is provided for filtering noise in fault signals on line;
s2, fault degree identification: constructing a non-parameter model of a system or equipment through MEST, obtaining an estimated vector through optimal reconstruction estimation of an observed vector and a history memory matrix, reflecting the fault degree by utilizing the difference between the estimated vector and the observed vector, and introducing CSFI to carry out smoothing treatment;
s3, online fault prediction: by a TSFM non-statistical analysis method, accidental variation of data is eliminated, gradient descent on-line updating smoothing factors are introduced, self-adaptive sliding time window is introduced to dynamically intercept time sequence data, and fitting capacity of the TSFM is improved;
s4, experimental analysis: verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of the equipment fault prediction model under the condition of a small sample;
s5, data processing analysis: the complexity of the improved WTD algorithm with different decomposition layers is evaluated through a preset BIC;
s6, fault degree identification analysis: the improved WTD is used for obtaining each wavelet decomposition coefficient as an observation variable of an improved MEST, sampling frequency, health state and degradation state are set for carrying out recognition analysis on fault degree, double CSFI is adopted for processing data, and a 'sharp point' of which the derivative does not exist in a curve is eliminated, so that a fault degree point after smoothing is obtained;
s7, fault online test analysis: the method comprises the steps of presetting an adaptive sliding time window, an adaptive smoothing factor, a learning factor, the maximum training iteration number and the minimum allowable error, and inputting a smoothed bearing fault degree value into a fault online prediction model to obtain an adaptive smoothing factor change trend, an adaptive sliding time window length change trend and a prediction error change trend.
S8, summarizing prediction results: summarizing the effect of online prediction model fault prediction.
2. The online fault prediction method for small sample equipment according to claim 1, wherein in S1, the WTD algorithm is modified to filter noise in a fault signal online, and the principle is as follows:
wherein λ is a threshold value;
ω j,k wavelet coefficients for fault signals;
j is a decomposition scale, J is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to J, and J is a maximum scale;
sgn () is a sign function;
the threshold function has continuity in the wavelet domain when ω j,k →λ - In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,when omega j,k →λ + In the time-course of which the first and second contact surfaces,
the threshold lambda should be chosen such that:
wherein N represents a signal length;
σ j the standard deviation of the Gaussian white noise of the j layer is expressed as follows:
in the formula, cd j,k A high frequency part which is the decomposition of the j-th layer wavelet;
p is the number of wavelet coefficients at the scale;
WTD considers that a fault signal exists in the low frequency part Ad j,k In which noise exists in the high-frequency portion Cd j,k In (a) and (b);
since the amplitude of the noise follows a gaussian distribution,high frequency part Cd with maximum decomposition layer number j,k To evaluate the data of the model complexity, BIC is introduced to evaluate the model complexity:
BIC=qln(N)-2ln(L)
wherein q is the number of model parameters;
n is the number of samples;
l is the maximum likelihood function obeying gaussian distribution, namely:
3. the online prediction method of small sample equipment faults according to claim 1, wherein in the step S2, an estimated vector and an observed vector are specifically calculated as follows:
let n interrelated variables in the plant be observed at a certain time t, and this is denoted as observation variable X t I.e.
X t =[x t,1 ,x t,2 …x t,n ] T
Wherein x is t,n The observation value of the state variable at the moment t;
constructing a history memory matrix D having m history moments, n associated state variables, i.e
From m observation vectors X in a history memory matrix D obs Can obtain an estimated vector X est I.e.
X est =DW=w 1 X 1 +w 2 X 2 …w m X m
Wherein W= [ W ] 1 ,w 2 …w m ] T Is an m-dimensional weight vector representing the input observation vector X obs Similarity to the history matrix D, i.e
In the method, in the process of the invention,is a nonlinear operator used for replacing product operation in a common matrix;
will D T And X is obs The Mahalanobis Distance (MD) between them as a non-linear operator in MEST, i.e
In Sigma -1 An inverse matrix of the multidimensional random variable covariance matrix;
when the two state matrices are more similar, the smaller their MD is;
when the difference of the two state matrixes is larger, the nonlinear operation result is larger;
bringing the equation (9) into the equation (8) can obtain the final expression of the MEST model estimation vector as follows:
by contrasting the observation vector X obs And estimate vector X est The difference value between the two values can obtain a residual error value epsilon of the fault degree of the reaction equipment, namely:
ε=X est -X obs
the root mean square is selected to reflect the fault degree by comparing the using ranges of various fault indexes;
by taking n dimensions X est And X is obs The root mean square RMSV of the residual epsilon can obtain the fault degree index DR of the reaction equipment:
the equipment fault degree index DR obtained by using the MEST is composed of a plurality of discrete points, a curve formed by the DR comprises a plurality of sharp points with derivatives not existing, and CSFI is introduced for smoothing.
4. The online small sample equipment fault prediction method according to claim 1, wherein in S3, the TSFM expression is:
in the formula, DR t Is the original sequence data;
if T represents the predicted time period,the prediction value of the ith training at the time t+T is represented by the following prediction formula:
wherein:
by comparing the application range of various gradient descent algorithms, random gradient descent (SGD) adaptive updating smoothing factor is selectedThen the ith training adaptive smoothing factor of the t+t prediction +.>The expression of (2) is:
in the method, in the process of the invention,training the adaptive smoothing factor for the (i-1) th time of the t+T th time of prediction;
beta is a learning factor;
DR t+T t+T actual value;
in the method, in the process of the invention,the data length of the ith training time sequence predicted for the t+T time is the self-adaptive sliding time window;
drawing a sliding time window diagram, wherein data_mode_i is training Data of the ith training, data_test_i is test Data of the ith training,
wherein μ is an adjustment factor;
when the time series data does not fully reflect the fault information, i.e. the partial derivatives of the loss functionAlways in the same direction, thenShould continue to grow or decrease, < >>Maximum according to 1+mu times increase or 1-mu times shortening;
when the time series data can partially reflect fault information, i.e. partial derivatives of the loss functionNon-uniform in the same direction, thenLength is dependent on->Is (are) direction of->In order of right->Length increase, ->When the value of the voltage is negative, the voltage is higher,the length is shortened;
selecting variance value VARV to represent final prediction error
Where len (T) is the number of index data of the degree of failure of the t+T th prediction.
5. The online fault prediction method for small sample equipment according to claim 4, wherein in S3, the flow of online fault prediction is as follows:
step1: ith training of t+T prediction, the predictive model first presets the ith-1 th sliding time windowDividing the training Data data_mode_i and the test Data data_test_i of the ith training Data into +.>And->Carry-in prediction of the i-th training +.>A value;
step2: will beCarrying-in calculation of the loss function of the ith training +.>If the maximum circulation times maxtrans are met or smaller than the minimum error minerror, training is stopped, and if the conditions are not met, the adaptive smoothing factor +_is updated according to the formula and the formula>And an adaptive sliding time window->Step1 is repeated, and the t+t predicted i+1 training is started.
6. The online prediction method of small sample equipment faults according to claim 1, wherein in the step S4, bearing performance degradation data is taken as a verification object, the sampling frequency is set to be 25.6kHz/min, the radial force is set to be 12kN, the rotating speed is set to be 2100rpm, the operation is carried out for 157.44S, and the vibration signal in the horizontal direction is selected to reflect the fault degree of the detected bearing.
7. The online prediction method of small sample equipment faults according to claim 1, wherein in the step S5, WTD effects of different hierarchical layers are compared as follows:
when the number of wavelet decomposition layers j=7, the BIC value is minimum;
when the number j of wavelet decomposition layers is less than 7, the effect of improving WTD noise reduction is also enhanced along with the increase of j;
when the number of wavelet decomposition layers j is more than 7, the effect of improving WTD noise reduction is not obvious along with the increase of j;
when j=7, the improved WTD algorithm not only can ensure that the noise reduction effect meets the requirement, but also can effectively prevent the problem of excessive model complexity caused by excessive precision;
taking noise amplitude obeying Gaussian distribution as the basis for evaluating the complexity of the model, so that the high-frequency part Cd with the maximum decomposition layer number is obtained j,k Outputting, drawing a Gaussian white noise amplitude distribution diagram;
when j is less than 7, improving the high-frequency part Cd of the maximum decomposition layer number of WTD j,k Obeying Gaussian distribution, wherein the improved threshold value in WTD does not destroy the distribution characteristic of Gaussian white noise, namely wavelet decomposition is insufficient;
when j is more than or equal to 7, improving the high-frequency part Cd of the maximum decomposition layer number of WTD j,k Not obeying Gaussian distribution, the improvement of threshold in WTD destroys the distribution characteristic of Gaussian white noise, namely the wavelet decomposition is sufficient, which illustrates the feasibility of setting BIC to evaluate the decomposition layer number and presets the high-frequency part Cd of the highest Gao Xiaobo decomposition layer number j,k To evaluate the scientificity of the data;
the wavelet decomposition layer number j=7 is set to improve WTD to perform noise reduction processing on the bearing performance degradation data.
8. The online small sample equipment fault prediction method according to claim 1, wherein in S6, each wavelet decomposition coefficient obtained by improving WTD is used as an observation variable X of improving MEST t I.e. when j=7, X t =[Ca t,7 ,Cd t,7 ,Cd t,6 ,Cd t,5 ,Cd t,4 ,Cd t,3 ,Cd t,2 ,Cd t,1 ]Setting the sampling frequency fs=25600 Hz, i.e. 1 second, setting the bearing performance degradation data to a healthy state for the first 2 seconds, i.e. the history time m=2, the history memory matrix d= [ X 1 ,X 2 ]Other times set to every 2 secondsState of performance degradation, i.e. observation vector X obs Carrying in bearing performance degradation data, and totally evaluating 77 fault degrees DR;
meanwhile, in order to eliminate the 'sharp point' where a plurality of derivatives do not exist in the DR curve, double CSFI is adopted to process data, the interpolation number is 10 times of the original data quantity, and 7700 fault degree points after smoothing are obtained.
9. The online prediction method of small sample equipment faults according to claim 1, wherein in the step S7, an initial value of a preset adaptive sliding time window length is 100, an initial value of an adaptive smoothing factor alpha is 0.05, a learning factor beta is 0.5, the maximum training iteration number maxtrans is 1000, and a minimum allowable error is 10 -8 Inputting the smoothed 7700 bearing fault degree DR values into a fault online prediction model, and comparing the change trend of the self-adaptive smoothing factor alpha, the change trend of the self-adaptive sliding time window length and the change trend of the prediction error e.
10. The online small sample equipment fault prediction method according to claim 1, wherein in S8, the prediction results are summarized as follows:
BIC can accurately find out the optimal decomposition layer number of the WTD algorithm;
the improved WTD algorithm has excellent noise reduction effect;
the MD improved MEST algorithm and the double CSFI algorithm can effectively convert fault signals into fault degree indexes;
the provided online prediction model can realize online prediction of equipment faults.
Priority Applications (1)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
CN202310356001.9A CN116383608A (en) | 2023-04-06 | 2023-04-06 | Small sample equipment fault online prediction method |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
CN202310356001.9A CN116383608A (en) | 2023-04-06 | 2023-04-06 | Small sample equipment fault online prediction method |
Publications (1)
Publication Number | Publication Date |
---|---|
CN116383608A true CN116383608A (en) | 2023-07-04 |
Family
ID=86967092
Family Applications (1)
Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
---|---|---|---|
CN202310356001.9A Pending CN116383608A (en) | 2023-04-06 | 2023-04-06 | Small sample equipment fault online prediction method |
Country Status (1)
Country | Link |
---|---|
CN (1) | CN116383608A (en) |
Cited By (2)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN116592951A (en) * | 2023-07-17 | 2023-08-15 | 陕西西特电缆有限公司 | Intelligent cable data acquisition method and system |
CN117330816A (en) * | 2023-12-01 | 2024-01-02 | 南京中旭电子科技有限公司 | Monitoring data optimization method for Hall current sensor |
-
2023
- 2023-04-06 CN CN202310356001.9A patent/CN116383608A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN116592951A (en) * | 2023-07-17 | 2023-08-15 | 陕西西特电缆有限公司 | Intelligent cable data acquisition method and system |
CN116592951B (en) * | 2023-07-17 | 2023-09-08 | 陕西西特电缆有限公司 | Intelligent cable data acquisition method and system |
CN117330816A (en) * | 2023-12-01 | 2024-01-02 | 南京中旭电子科技有限公司 | Monitoring data optimization method for Hall current sensor |
CN117330816B (en) * | 2023-12-01 | 2024-01-26 | 南京中旭电子科技有限公司 | Monitoring data optimization method for Hall current sensor |
Similar Documents
Publication | Publication Date | Title |
---|---|---|
CN116383608A (en) | Small sample equipment fault online prediction method | |
CN109297689B (en) | Large-scale hydraulic machinery intelligent diagnosis method introducing weight factors | |
CN111626345A (en) | Multi-stage deep convolution transfer learning fault diagnosis method between different bearing devices | |
CN116010900A (en) | Multi-scale feature fusion gearbox fault diagnosis method based on self-attention mechanism | |
Chen et al. | Diagnosing planetary gear faults using the fuzzy entropy of LMD and ANFIS | |
CN112149953B (en) | Electromechanical equipment operation safety assessment method based on multimode linkage and multistage cooperation | |
CN113947017A (en) | Method for predicting residual service life of rolling bearing | |
CN114186379A (en) | Transformer state evaluation method based on echo network and deep residual error neural network | |
CN115936060B (en) | Substation capacitance temperature early warning method based on depth deterministic strategy gradient | |
CN117077327A (en) | Bearing life prediction method and system based on digital twin | |
CN114841208A (en) | Rolling bearing performance decline prediction method and device based on SAE and TCN-Attention model | |
Wang et al. | Coupled hidden Markov fusion of multichannel fast spectral coherence features for intelligent fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings | |
CN117349614A (en) | Frequency stability prediction method based on self-attention mechanism and space-time diagram convolution network | |
Sadoughi et al. | A deep learning approach for failure prognostics of rolling element bearings | |
CN114563671A (en) | High-voltage cable partial discharge diagnosis method based on CNN-LSTM-Attention neural network | |
CN114169718A (en) | Method for improving reliability of wind turbine generator based on state evaluation of wind turbine generator | |
CN116306217A (en) | Track similarity residual life prediction method based on slow characteristic information gain ratio | |
Wang et al. | Continual residual reservoir computing for remaining useful life prediction | |
Zhou et al. | Constructing a health indicator based on long short-term memory and using an extreme inflection point with a slope model to enhance monotonicity | |
CN116008747A (en) | Yogi-mLSTM cable partial discharge identification method and diagnosis system based on wavelet threshold denoising | |
Luo et al. | A novel method for remaining useful life prediction of roller bearings involving the discrepancy and similarity of degradation trajectories | |
CN112733076B (en) | System identification method based on neural network ordinary differential equation under non-continuous excitation | |
Li | Remaining useful life prediction of bearings using fuzzy multimodal extreme learning regression | |
CN112857562B (en) | Method for adaptively monitoring torsional vibration state of generator | |
Zhang et al. | Gearbox fault diagnosis based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and improved k means clustering |
Legal Events
Date | Code | Title | Description |
---|---|---|---|
PB01 | Publication | ||
PB01 | Publication | ||
SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination |