CN115965253A - Attribution method for drought changes at different time intervals - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to an attribution method of drought change in different periods, which comprises the steps of collecting meteorological data comprising precipitation, temperature, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed data; calculating the water balance of each pixel according to a water balance state calculation formula by using meteorological data; after the meteorological factors are controlled one by one, respectively calculating the respective water balance according to a water balance calculation formula; and identifying the drought event, and separating the contribution of each meteorological factor from the drought event according to the change difference of the drought event in the two time periods. The method is reasonable and feasible, has concise mathematical form and clear physical mechanism, can easily obtain required data, can be used in regions and large ranges, has strong universality, solves the technical problems that in the prior art, it is difficult to quantify various meteorological factors (such as temperature, precipitation and the like) in drought state change, the contribution of various variables cannot be separated, the contribution of the meteorological factors to the difference between the future and the historical drought state cannot be described and the like, and has good market prospect and development space for the prior art.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of drought event reason summarization and future prediction, in particular to an attribution method of drought change in different periods.
Background
Drought is the most damaging natural disaster in the world. In recent years, with global warming, the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme drought events have increased dramatically. Drought is a meteorological disaster determined by multiple factors, such as precipitation, temperature, radiation, relative humidity, wind speed and the like. The drought changes at different time intervals are compared, and the contributions of different factors are quantized, so that the method has important significance for mastering the rule and the generation mechanism of the drought event, preventing and reducing disasters and the like.
The first technical solution in the prior art is that, for a drought index represented by a single variable (such as precipitation), the difference between the future and the historical drought conditions can be quantified as:
wherein P is the difference between the future and current drought status; drought history Is the nature (frequency, intensity and duration) of the past drought event; drought future Is an attribute of the drought event for the next period of time. The method expresses the difference between the future and the historical drought events, and can indirectly attribute the drought indexes represented by a single meteorological factor (such as precipitation). However, for drought indicators (such as SPEI) expressed in multivariate ensemble, the above formula cannot separate the contributions of each variable.
The second technical scheme in the prior art is that a drought event is extracted after the trend and variability of a meteorological factor in a specific time are removed, and then the drought event is compared with a real-situation drought event, and the expression formula is as follows:
wherein P is the contribution of meteorological factor changes (trends or variations) to drought events; drought real Is the nature (frequency, intensity and duration) of the real-scene drought event; drought control Is the attribute of the drought event after controlling the meteorological factors. The method can only obtain the contribution of the change (trend and variability) of the meteorological factors to the drought event within a period of time, and cannot describe the contribution of the meteorological factors to the difference between the future and the historical drought states.
The problem to be solved at present is how to design an attribution method for drought change in different periods, which is reasonable and feasible, ingenious in design, concise in mathematical form, clear in physical mechanism, easy to obtain required data, capable of being used in regions and large ranges and strong in universality.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems that in the prior art, it is difficult to quantify various meteorological factors (such as temperature, precipitation and the like) in drought state change, contributions of various variables cannot be separated, contributions of the meteorological factors to the difference between the future drought state and the historical drought state cannot be described and the like, the invention provides an attribution method for drought state change in different periods, and the method is reasonable and feasible, ingenious in design, concise in mathematical form, clear in physical mechanism, easy to obtain required data, capable of being used in regions and large ranges and strong in universality.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: the attribution method of the drought change in different periods comprises the following steps:
collecting meteorological data including precipitation, temperature, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed data;
calculating the water balance of each pixel according to a water balance state calculation formula by using meteorological data;
step three, after the meteorological factors are controlled one by one, respectively calculating the respective water balance according to a water balance calculation formula;
and step four, identifying the drought event, and separating the contribution of each meteorological factor from the drought event according to the change difference of the drought event in the two time periods.
The basic implementation mode of the invention can be further improved, perfected and limited on the basis that: in the second step, the water balance can be expressed as the difference between the precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration, i.e. B = PRE-PET, where B, PRE, and PET are the water balance state, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the pixel, respectively.
The above is the basic implementation mode of the invention, and further improvement, perfection and limitation can be made on the basis of the above: calculation methods for PET as described include the Penman-Monteith, thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods.
The above is the basic implementation mode of the invention, and further improvement, perfection and limitation can be made on the basis of the above: as in step four, the contribution of all variables in the future together determine the change in Drought event for both periods of time, i.e., drought change ＝Drought 2 -Drought 1 In the second time period, a certain meteorological variable X is replaced by overThe same weather variable, identify Drought event and Drought 1 Making a difference to obtain the contribution of the other variables except the image variable X, which can be expressed as: drought change-X ＝Drought 2-X -Drought 1 Then the contribution of the weather factor X to the change in the drought event can be expressed as the difference between:
Drought X ＝Drought change -Drought change-X ＝Drought 2 -Drought 2-X and thus, the contribution of the meteorological factor change to the drought event is obtained.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a method for separating the contributions of all weather factors from a comprehensive drought index based on a water balance and factor analysis method, wherein a certain weather factor in a future time period is controlled to be in a historical state, and the difference between a real drought index and the drought index calculated after the weather factor is controlled is used as the contribution of the factor, so that the method has important significance for revealing the weather change response rule and mechanism of a drought event, preventing and reducing disasters and the like.
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Fig. 1 is a general technical flow chart of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a graphical representation of the contribution of total change (a), precipitation (b) and temperature (c) to drought event change (difference between future and historical).
Detailed Description
The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
An embodiment, attribution method of drought change in different periods comprises the following steps:
collecting meteorological data including precipitation, temperature, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed data;
calculating the water balance of each pixel according to a water balance state calculation formula by using meteorological data;
step three, after controlling meteorological factors one by one, respectively calculating respective water balance according to a water balance calculation formula;
and step four, identifying the drought event, and separating the contribution of each meteorological factor from the drought event according to the change difference of the drought event in the two time periods.
The basic implementation mode of the invention can be further improved, perfected and limited on the basis that: in the second step, the water balance can be expressed as the difference between the precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration, i.e. B = PRE-PET, where B, PRE, and PET are the water balance state, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the pixel, respectively.
The above is the basic implementation mode of the invention, and further improvement, perfection and limitation can be made on the basis of the above: the PET calculation method comprises Penman-Monteith, thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods, and the specific calculation method is shown in GBT20481-2017.
The above is the basic implementation mode of the invention, and further improvement, perfection and limitation can be made on the basis of the above: as in step four, the contribution of all variables in the future together determine the change in Drought event for both periods of time, i.e., drought change ＝Drought 2 -Drought 1 Replacing a weather variable X with the same weather variable in the past in the second time period, identifying the Drought event and Drought 1 Making a difference to obtain the contribution of the other variables except the image variable X, which can be expressed as: drought change-X ＝Drought 2-X -Drought 1 Then the contribution of the weather factor X to the change in the drought event can be expressed as the difference between:
Drought X ＝Drought change -Drought change-X ＝Drought 2 -Drought 2-X and thus, the contribution of the meteorological factor change to the drought event is obtained.
Referring to FIG. 2, the inventors used this approach to attribute global future (2051-2100) drought events to past (1951-2000) drought changes. FIG. 2 shows global drought frequency changes and the contribution of precipitation and temperature changes to drought changes, respectively. As can be seen, precipitation changes resulted in increased drought frequencies in amazon, west africa and australia, while drought frequencies in high latitudes in the northern hemisphere were reduced. Temperature changes can lead to an increase in future drought events, especially in northern africa, central asia and mediterranean regions. The results show that the method can effectively separate the contribution of the meteorological factor change to the drought event.
The method is reasonable and feasible, ingenious in design, concise in mathematical form, clear in physical mechanism, easy to obtain required data, capable of being used in a region and a large range, strong in universality, and capable of solving the technical problems that in the prior art, it is difficult to quantify all meteorological factors (such as temperature, precipitation and the like) in drought state change, contributions of all variables cannot be separated, contributions of the meteorological factors to the difference between the future and the historical drought state cannot be described, and the like.
The preferred embodiments and examples of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the embodiments and examples described above, and various changes can be made within the knowledge of those skilled in the art without departing from the concept of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. The attribution method of the drought change in different periods is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
collecting meteorological data including precipitation, temperature, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed data;
calculating the water balance of each pixel according to a water balance state calculation formula by using meteorological data;
step three, after the meteorological factors are controlled one by one, respectively calculating the respective water balance according to a water balance calculation formula;
and step four, identifying the drought event, and separating the contribution of each meteorological factor from the drought event according to the change difference of the drought event in the two time periods.
2. The attribution method of varying periods of drought changes according to claim 1, wherein: in the second step, the water balance can be expressed as the difference between the precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration, i.e. B = PRE-PET, where B, PRE, and PET are the water balance state, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the pixel, respectively.
3. The method for attributing different periods of drought changes according to claim 2, wherein: the PET calculation methods include Penman-Monteith, thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods.
4. The method for attributing different periods of drought changes according to claim 1, wherein: in the fourth step, the contribution of all variables in the future jointly determine the Drought event change in two periods, i.e., drought change ＝Drought 2 -Drought 1 Replacing a weather variable X with the same weather variable in the past in the second time period, identifying the Drought event and Drought 1 The difference is made to obtain the contribution of the other variables except the image variable X, which can be expressed as: drought change-X ＝Drought 2-X -Drought 1 Then the contribution of the meteorological factor X to the change in drought events can be expressed as the difference between: drought X ＝Drought change -Drought change-X ＝Drought 2 -Drought 2-X Thereby deriving the contribution of the meteorological factor change to the drought event.
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