CN115953150A - Wind power plant current collection system scheme evaluation method and device and storage medium - Google Patents
Wind power plant current collection system scheme evaluation method and device and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the application provides a method, equipment and a storage medium for evaluating a wind power plant current collection system scheme, wherein the method comprises the following steps: calculating the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme in the full life cycle of operation; the present cost includes maintenance costs due to reliability factors; and comparing the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme, wherein the specific wind power plant current collection system scheme corresponding to the minimum value of the current value cost is a target scheme. Therefore, the calculation of a maintenance cost scientific system comprising the replacement cost of a fault element or part and the generated energy loss income during the fault period is significant to the current value cost of the whole life cycle, and the method is particularly significant to the investment planning of the scheme of the offshore wind farm collection system.
Description
Technical Field
The application belongs to the field of wind resources, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating a wind power plant current collection system scheme.
Background
The current collection system is as the important electric part of connecting wind turbine group and transmission system, electrical equipment is numerous, its economic cost occupies great proportion in wind-powered electricity generation field, and the marine environment is abominable, offshore wind power plant reliability is poor, its operation and maintenance cost is higher than land wind-powered electricity generation field far away, in case current collection system breaks down, the operation and maintenance difficulty, maintenance duration is long, can cause a large amount of power loss in whole wind-powered electricity generation field, thereby influence economic benefits, consequently current collection system's reliability has important influence and meaning to planning investment and reliable operation of whole offshore wind-powered electricity generation field.
In the prior art, only initial cost is usually considered in the whole wind power plant planning investment, reliability is mainly considered, cost control is not emphasized, or the initial cost is considered and maintenance cost brought by the reliability problem is considered qualitatively. The prior art lacks a complete set of methods for quantitatively calculating the initial cost and the maintenance cost of the whole life cycle to obtain the maximum economic benefit.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a method, equipment and a storage medium for evaluating a wind power plant current collection system scheme, so that the problem that a scientific method for comprehensively calculating initial cost and maintenance cost is lacked in the prior art is solved, and optimal cost control of the wind power plant current collection system in the whole life cycle is realized.
In a first aspect, the present value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme in the full life cycle of operation is calculated, the present value cost includes maintenance cost brought by reliability factors, the present value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme is compared, and the specific wind power plant current collection system scheme corresponding to the minimum value of the present value cost is a target scheme.
Further, the maintenance cost of the full life cycle of the wind power plant collecting system is obtained according to the failure rate of elements or components, the net residual value of the fixed asset recovery after the full life cycle of the wind power plant collecting system is obtained, and the present cost of the wind power plant collecting system is obtained through calculation according to the initial investment cost, the maintenance cost of the full life cycle and the net residual value of the fixed asset recovery.
Here, the total full lifecycle cost is defined as the sum of the initial investment cost and the full lifecycle maintenance cost, including the failed component or part replacement cost and the power generation lost revenue during the failure, minus the fixed asset recovery net residual value. In addition, the maintenance costs incurred each year and the end-of-life fixed asset value are converted to present-value costs.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an evaluation device for a wind farm power collection system scheme, including: at least one processor and memory; the memory stores computer-executable instructions; the at least one processor executes computer-executable instructions stored by the memory to cause the at least one processor to perform the first aspect and the various possible wind farm collection system solution evaluation methods of the first aspect as described above.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, where computer-executable instructions are stored, and when a processor executes the computer-executable instructions, the method for evaluating a wind farm power collection system scheme according to the first aspect and various possible wind farm power collection system schemes according to the first aspect are implemented.
The method, the device and the storage medium for evaluating the wind power plant collection system scheme provided by the embodiment of the application comprise the following steps: calculating the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme in the full life cycle of operation; the present cost includes maintenance costs due to reliability factors; and comparing the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme, wherein the specific wind power plant current collection system scheme corresponding to the minimum value of the current value cost is a target scheme. Therefore, the calculation of a maintenance cost scientific system comprising the replacement cost of a fault element or part and the generated energy loss income during the fault period is significant to the current value cost of the whole life cycle, and the method is particularly significant to the investment planning of the scheme of the offshore wind farm collection system.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic structural composition diagram of an offshore wind farm;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a connection structure of a current collecting system of an offshore wind farm;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a relationship between costs of different current collection systems and capacity of a wind farm;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a comparison of current cost values of life cycles of current collection systems with different structures according to an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating a wind farm power collection system scheme in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a wind farm power collection system scheme evaluation device provided by the embodiment of the application;
fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for evaluating a wind farm power collection system scheme provided in an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
The terms "first," "second," "third," and "fourth," etc., in the description and claims of this application and in the foregoing drawings, if any, are used for distinguishing between similar elements and not necessarily for describing a particular sequential or chronological order. It is to be understood that the data so used is interchangeable under appropriate circumstances such that the embodiments of the application described herein are capable of operation in sequences other than those illustrated or described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprises," "comprising," and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, system, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of steps or elements is not necessarily limited to those steps or elements expressly listed, but may include other steps or elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
The offshore wind power generation principle is that sea wind generated on the sea is used as power for power generation, and the sea wind is operated by a wind power generator and then is converted into electric energy by a series of mechanical operation. As shown in fig. 1, the offshore wind farm mainly includes: the system comprises a power transmission system, a current collection system, a fan group, a booster station and the like. Electric energy generated by each fan is collected to the offshore transformer station through the current collection system, and then is transmitted to an onshore grid-connected point through boosting. The electric energy collecting process of the offshore wind farm collecting system is that electric energy generated by a plurality of wind generating sets is transmitted through switch equipment and submarine cables, and then the electric energy is concentrated to a wind farm outlet bus according to a certain combination mode.
All the time, expert scholars carry out work related to an offshore power collection line system, most of the work focuses on research work related to an optimization algorithm, or the work focuses on the influence of power collection of a wind power plant on connection of a power distribution network, and the influence of the reliability of the power collection system of the wind power plant on economy is less concerned. The design research of the submarine optical cable and the evaluation work of the offshore current collection line system are only carried out based on the reliability consideration. The optimization research work of the current collecting circuit of the large offshore wind power by adopting a genetic algorithm is carried out by considering the investment planning cost; in addition, as shown in fig. 2, evaluation of the networking mode of the offshore wind farm compares different collector line system structures, namely, active loss and economy of a chain-shaped connection structure, a single-side annular connection structure and a double-side annular connection structure, and system evaluation of reliability combined with initial investment cost is not performed.
The optimization of an offshore current collection line system mainly needs to solve three problems, namely electrical efficiency, reliability and economy. The offshore current collection circuit needs to be reasonably distributed to ensure the normal operation of the fan cable, the use loss and the error are reduced to an acceptable range, and overvoltage and overcurrent are avoided; meanwhile, the qualification of the quality of the electric energy and the continuity of the electric energy are guaranteed. Meanwhile, the current development and construction cost of the large offshore wind farm is relatively high, wherein the current collection circuit system and the equipment connection account for a considerable proportion of the total cost, and reasonable design is required to reduce the cost.
By means of the existing data and the connection structure of the current collection system of the offshore wind farm, the current collection system is the most economical scheme by using the chain-shaped connection structure, the number of required cables, switch equipment and other elements is less, and the cost is saved; in terms of electrical performance, the scheme using the unilateral ring connection structure has higher reliability and lowest active loss, but requires more elements such as switch equipment, more redundant cables and the highest cost. Particularly, the scale of the current offshore wind farm is continuously increased compared with the scale of the conventional offshore wind farm, and the influence of reliability on economy is more prominent along with the increase of capacity.
At present, a plurality of experts and scholars are put into the optimization algorithm work of the arrangement scheme of the current collecting system of the offshore wind farm, various composite connecting structures are developed on the basis of the connecting structures, and how to select the most suitable scheme from a plurality of schemes needs a comprehensive evaluation method.
In an embodiment provided by the application, a method for evaluating a wind power plant current collection system scheme includes: calculating the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme in the full life cycle of operation; the current cost includes the maintenance cost brought by the reliability factor; and comparing the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme, wherein the specific wind power plant current collection system scheme corresponding to the minimum value of the current value cost is a target scheme.
Further, calculating the current cost of the scheme of the wind power plant collection system in the full life cycle of operation, including: acquiring initial investment cost of a wind power plant current collection system; obtaining the maintenance cost of the whole life cycle of the wind power plant current collection system according to the failure rate of the elements or the components; acquiring a fixed asset recovery net residual value after the full life cycle of a wind power plant current collection system; and calculating the current cost of the wind power plant current collection system according to the initial investment cost, the maintenance cost of the whole life cycle and the fixed asset recovery net residual value.
Specifically, calculating the present cost of the scheme of the wind power plant collection system in the full life cycle of operation comprises:
subtracting the fixed asset recovery net residual value from the sum of the initial investment cost and the maintenance cost of the full life cycle to calculate the current cost of the wind power plant collecting system;
in one embodiment provided by the application, the present cost of the wind farm power collection system scheme in the full life cycle of operation is calculated, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein IC is the initial investment cost, cc is the fault replacement maintenance cost, sv is the fixed asset recovery net residual value at the end of life cycle,for the current cost of the maintenance charge of the Tth year>The present cost of recovering net residual value for the N year fixed asset, ic the discount rate, N the life cycle maximum age of the project, and T the age.
And comprehensively evaluating the quality of the schemes by adopting a cost current value comparison method, namely calculating the current value cost of each current collection system scheme for comparison, and preferably evaluating the scheme with lower current value cost.
In one embodiment provided by the present application, the initial investment cost includes an initial investment cost of a self-power-distribution line and an initial investment cost of a power-distribution booster station, and a calculation formula is as follows:
wherein IC is the total initial investment cost of the current collecting system, IC Cab For collecting the initial investment cost of the circuit, IC Sub Cab for initial investment cost of the collector-booster station Pi Is the unit price (unit:. Gamma./km) of the cable i For cable length, sub PA Building unit price of booster station, sub A For the building area of the booster station, P Sub The cost of power distribution equipment and installation in the booster station.
In the embodiment provided by the present application, the maintenance cost of the full life cycle includes the replacement cost of the failed component and the lost revenue of the generated energy during the maintenance, and the calculation formula is as follows:
cc is the expected loss cost due to component failure replacement in the power collection system, ci is the maintenance and replacement cost due to each failure, pi is the power generation amount lost during maintenance, and E is the grid price.
And calculating the expected value of the cost generated by fault repair and replacement in the life cycle, namely the expected loss cost. The expected loss cost in the present application includes a direct loss expected cost and an indirect loss expected cost. Direct loss-to-date costs include repair and replacement costs for the failed component; indirect losses are a desired cost, meaning that failure of a component of the electrical collection system reduces the losses due to the output. Then, the failure rate and the failure maintenance duration of different elements can be calculated through the subsequent reliability model, and the replacement cost or the maintenance cost, namely the expected loss cost, is corresponding to the failure rate and the failure maintenance duration.
The relationship between the output power of the fan and the wind speed is expressed as follows:
p is the output power of the fan, when the wind speed v is less than the cut-in wind speedMeanwhile, the output of the fan is 0; when the wind speed v is greater than the cut-in wind speed and less than the rated wind speed of the fan>When the wind speed is increased, the output of the fan is increased; when the wind speed reaches the rated wind speed->And less than cut-out wind speed>When the fan output power is constant at the rated power->(ii) a When the wind speed is greater than the cut-out wind speed->And in time, the fan is stopped without output power.
The lost power generation during the fault period is the product of the fault rate of the current collection system, the output power of the fan, the hour per year and the number of the fans; the calculation formula of the loss power generation amount in the fault period is as follows:
whereinFor collecting the failure rate of the system,/>For outputting power to fan,nIs the number of fans,Possible loss in one year,The simulation was hourly, 8760 year of hours.
In an embodiment provided by the application, a power collection system reliability model is established through monte carlo simulation, and the fault rate of the power collection system is calculated.
In detail, a collection system reliability model is established by using Monte Carlo, and simulation trial calculation is carried out hour by hour, wherein the age limit is the project plan life cycle, and is generally 20 years or 25 years. And marking each element in the current collection system one by one, and marking the normal operation of the element as 1 and marking the fault as 0. Randomly generating a group of Gaussian-distributed random numbers to represent the normal working state of the i element, i =1,2, … … N, randomly generating a random number y between (0,1), if yi is larger than or equal to lambada i, the element normally works, and if yi is smaller than or equal to lambada i, the element is in a fault state. Assuming that the fault rate function λ (t) is gaussian distributed over the running time t, then:
FN is the cumulative distribution of λ (t). Then, if the desired distribution probability of λ (t) is p (t), then:
the normal operation time of the element is the fault interval time of the element, which is a poisson event flow and obeys exponential distribution, then:
where F (t) is the element failure interval probability density, then:
wherein P (t) is a component failure distribution function, and:
where R (t) is reliability, so:
where tr is the length of the fault repair.
The current collecting circuit system is a series-parallel hybrid system, the element reliability is R (t), and the system reliability Rc (t) is:
failure rate Λ for the current collection system:
through Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability, the failure rate, the element failure rate and the fault maintenance duration of the offshore wind power plant current collection system scheme can be obtained. The loss of revenue due to inoperability during a fault can be found from the product of the amount of power loss from the collection system multiplied by the unit price of the grid.
By adopting the method, the early investment planning of the wind power plant collecting system is particularly important, and particularly for the offshore wind power plant collecting system with serious reliability, the scheme evaluation of the influence of the maintenance cost on the economy brought by the reliability is combined, so that a proper target scheme is objectively selected; the maintenance cost of the scheme not only considers the replacement cost of elements or components during the failure, but also considers the income loss caused by the incapability of running during the failure, and the method is a calculation method of a very scientific comprehensive system.
For ease of understanding, the present application is illustrated in detail as follows:
s1, acquiring basic data
The installed capacity of the offshore wind power station is 400MW, and the installed capacity of a single machine is 5 MW. Obtaining data of an offshore wind farm, including wind measuring data, fan arrangement coordinates, fan parameters such as rated capacity and rated voltage, cable parameters such as sectional area, resistance and conductance, and switch configuration parameters.
S2, acquiring topological structure of current collection system of offshore wind farm
Different wiring schemes of the current collecting system are obtained, and the wiring mode is shown in a reference figure 2. The characteristics of the wiring scheme of each current collection system are introduced as follows:
TABLE 1 advantages and disadvantages of different current collecting system schemes
S3, calculating initial investment capital cost of the current collecting system
Calculating initial investment capital costs for different current collection system solutions; different wiring scheme component configurations need to be considered, with different locations, different quantities, and different costs. The relationship between the cost of different collection systems and the capacity of the wind farm is shown in fig. 3.
S4: establishing a reliability model of the current collection system and calculating the fault rate of the system
Establishing a power collection system reliability model by using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the fault rate of the wind power generation and power collection system; the calculation process is described in detail above, and is not described herein again. The related data and the calculation result are shown in the following table, and the fault rate data of the main components refers to the operation data published by the existing offshore wind farm.
TABLE 2 duration of outage and maintenance
S5: calculating the maintenance cost
Calculating expected values of costs generated by fault maintenance and replacement in the life cycle; different wiring modes have different system failure rates caused by element failures, so that the direct loss expected cost and the indirect loss expected cost of different current collection system schemes are different. The repair costs include failed component or part replacement costs and lost revenue from power generation during failure.
S6: calculating the present cost of the project's full life cycle
Firstly, calculating a recovery net residual value of the fixed assets after the full life cycle of a wind power plant current collection system, wherein the recovery net residual value is generally 3% -5% of the original fixed assets, and values can be taken according to actual conditions of different projects; and then, calculating to obtain the current cost of the wind power plant collecting system according to the sum of the initial investment cost and the maintenance cost of the full life cycle and subtracting the fixed asset recovery net residual value.
And finally, comparing the current cost values of the wind power plant collecting systems according to the schemes, and selecting a target scheme. In this example, a current collecting system using a hybrid wiring structure is the most preferable.
Fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of a wind farm power collection system scheme evaluation device provided in the embodiment of the present application. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions, are meant to be exemplary only, and are not limiting to the implementations of the present application described and/or claimed herein.
As shown in fig. 7, the wind farm power collection system solution evaluation device includes: a processor and memory, the various components being interconnected using different buses, and may be mounted on a common motherboard or in other manners as desired. The processor may process instructions executed within the wind farm collection system solution evaluation device, including instructions for graphical information stored in or on the memory for display on an external input/output device (such as a display device coupled to the interface). In other embodiments, multiple processors and/or multiple buses may be used, along with multiple memories and multiple memories, as desired.
The memory, as a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, may be used to store a non-transitory software program, a non-transitory computer-executable program, and modules, such as program instructions/modules (e.g., the first obtaining module, the first processing module, the input module, and the determining module shown in fig. 6) corresponding to the method for evaluating a solution of a wind farm collection system in the embodiment of the present application. The processor executes various functional applications and data processing of the server by running non-transitory software programs, instructions and modules stored in the memory, so as to implement the method for evaluating the wind farm collection system scheme in the method embodiment.
The wind farm collection system scheme evaluation may further include: an input device and an output device. The processor, memory, input devices, and output devices may be connected by a bus or other means, as exemplified by the bus connection in fig. 7.
The input device can receive input numeric or character information, and key signal input related to user setting and function control of the wind power plant electricity collection system scheme evaluation equipment, such as a touch screen, a small keyboard, a mouse, or a plurality of mouse buttons, a track ball, a joystick and the like. The output device can be an output device such as a display device for evaluating the wind power plant power collection system scheme. The display device may include, but is not limited to, a Liquid Crystal Display (LCD), a Light Emitting Diode (LED) display, and a plasma display. In some implementations, the display device can be a touch screen.
The wind farm power collection system scheme evaluation device of the embodiment of the application can be used for executing the technical scheme of each method embodiment of the application, the implementation principle and the technical effect are similar, and details are not repeated here.
In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other manners. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the units is only one type of logical functional division, and other divisions may be realized in practice, for example, multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiments of the present application.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, or in a form of hardware plus a software functional unit.
Claims (10)
1. A method for evaluating a wind power plant current collection system scheme is characterized by comprising the following steps:
calculating the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme in the full life cycle of operation;
the present cost includes maintenance costs due to reliability factors;
and comparing the current value cost of each wind power plant current collection system scheme, wherein the specific wind power plant current collection system scheme corresponding to the minimum value of the current value cost is a target scheme.
2. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant collection system according to claim 1, wherein calculating the current cost of the scheme of the wind power plant collection system for putting into operation in the full life cycle comprises:
acquiring initial investment cost of a wind power plant current collection system;
acquiring the maintenance cost of the whole life cycle of the wind power plant current collection system according to the failure rate of the elements or the parts;
acquiring a fixed asset recovery net residual value after the full life cycle of a wind power plant current collection system;
and calculating the present cost of the wind power plant current collection system according to the initial investment cost, the maintenance cost of the full life cycle and the fixed asset recovery net residual value.
3. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant collection system according to claim 2, wherein calculating the present cost of the scheme of the wind power plant collection system for the full life cycle of operation comprises:
and subtracting the fixed asset recovery net residual value from the sum of the initial investment cost and the maintenance cost of the full life cycle to calculate the present cost of the wind power plant collection system.
4. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant collection system according to claim 3, wherein calculating the current cost of the scheme of the wind power plant collection system for putting into operation in the full life cycle comprises:
wherein IC is the initial investment cost, cc is the failure replacement maintenance cost, sv is the fixed asset recovery net residual value at the end of the life cycle,for the current cost of the maintenance charge of the Tth year>And recovering the current cost of the net residual value for the N-th fixed asset, wherein ic is the discount rate, N is the maximum life span of the life cycle of the project, and T is the age span.
5. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant collecting system according to claim 3, wherein the initial investment cost comprises an initial investment cost of a self-collecting line and an initial investment cost of a collecting booster station, and the calculation formula is as follows:
the Integrated Circuit (IC) is the total initial investment cost of a current collection system, the ICCab is the initial investment cost of a current collection line, the ICSub is the initial investment cost of a current collection booster station, the CabPi is the unit price of a cable (unit: rimm/km), the Li is the length of the cable, the building unit price of the SubPA booster station, the SubA is the building area of the booster station, and the PSub is the cost of power distribution equipment and installation in the booster station.
6. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant collection system according to claim 3, wherein the maintenance cost of the full life cycle comprises a replacement cost of a failed element and a lost generating capacity income during maintenance, and the calculation formula is as follows:
cc is the expected loss cost due to component failure replacement in the power collection system, ci is the maintenance and replacement cost due to each failure, pi is the power generation amount lost during maintenance, and E is the grid price.
7. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant collection system according to claim 6, characterized by comprising the following steps of:
the lost power generation during the fault period is the product of the fault rate of the current collection system, the output power of the fan, the hour per year and the number of the fans;
the calculation formula of the loss power generation amount in the fault period is as follows:
8. The method for evaluating the scheme of the wind power plant power collection system according to claim 7, characterized in that a power collection system reliability model is established through Monte Carlo simulation, and the failure rate of the power collection system is calculated.
9. A wind farm collection system scheme evaluation device is characterized by comprising:
at least one processor and a memory;
the memory stores computer-executable instructions;
the at least one processor executing computer-executable instructions stored by the memory cause the at least one processor to perform a wind farm collection system solution evaluation method according to any of claims 1 to 8.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores computer-executable instructions, and when the computer-executable instructions are executed by a processor, the method for evaluating the wind farm power collection system solution according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.
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CN115495989A (en) * | 2022-09-28 | 2022-12-20 | 西安热工研究院有限公司 | Offshore wind farm current collection system topological structure design method considering wind characteristics |
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