CN115829322A - Tunnel risk analysis method based on regional geology and construction dual-factor influence - Google Patents
Tunnel risk analysis method based on regional geology and construction dual-factor influence Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a tunnel risk analysis method based on regional geology and construction dual-factor influence, which analyzes the structural elements of tunnel disasters, establishes a risk factor set, constructs a coupling model, determines the corresponding analysis and evaluation type, establishes risk grade division according to the risk grade and evaluates the risk degree of various couplings by analyzing tunnel construction accidents. According to the invention, data of tunnel geological conditions and construction conditions are comprehensively considered, fusion analysis calculation is carried out on each data, common factors of tunnel disasters are extracted, influences of each factor are quantified, tunnel risk assessment is carried out comprehensively, and the tunnel disaster assessment system has high assessment accuracy, reliability and safety; the method has the advantages of good flexibility, capability of quickly and efficiently carrying out evaluation work, low investment cost, perfection of the theory related to the tunnel disaster accident and the risk in the complex geological environment, and guidance of the early warning and safety guarantee work of the tunnel disaster accident in the complex geological environment.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of tunnel construction, in particular to a tunnel risk analysis method based on regional geology and construction dual-factor influence.
Background
With the rapid development of tunnel construction, the safety of the tunnel is also concerned. The tunnel excavation construction has the main characteristics of high concealment, high danger, many unknown factors and the like, so that the construction process can meet the conditions of complex geological conditions and severe construction operation environment frequently, the tunnel construction process is high in comprehensiveness, multiple processes operate simultaneously, and mutual interference is large. The problem of tunnel disaster accidents is gradually highlighted, and particularly in recent years, some tunnel construction vicious accidents frequently occur, so that the economic and social benefits of tunnel construction are reduced, the construction period is delayed, casualties are caused, and great threats are brought to the life and property safety of people. Most of the existing tunnel disaster risk evaluation methods rely on manual survey, and have the advantages of strong subjectivity, complex calculation, low evaluation accuracy and great potential safety hazard.
The invention discloses a method for analyzing quality risk of highway bridge and tunnel engineering with publication (announcement) number (CN 11416906A). The invention establishes a database of quality problems of highway bridge and tunnel engineering, carries out grade division on the risk of the engineering under construction, and provides a priority processing scheme, thereby being convenient for solving the problem of engineering quality. However, the invention does not disclose a calculation process for calculating risk assessment, so that the invention has no data support and is not objective.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the existing problems, the invention aims to provide a tunnel risk analysis method based on the influence of regional geology and construction two factors, which reduces the calculation required by related personnel and ensures objectivity in the coupling degree of each risk factor.
The main ideas of the technical scheme adopted by the invention are as follows: and constructing a tunnel risk analysis method coupling model under the coupling of the regional geology and the construction double factors by using the N-K model and the coupling degree model, calculating the coupling degree between certain components of the coupling of the single and double risk factors, quantifying the risk degree of various couplings, and analyzing the relevance mechanism between the factors.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on regional geology and construction double factors is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, analyzing the correlation between regional geology and construction double factors and tunnel risks;
s2, coupling and defining the tunnel risk related factors in the step S1;
s3, comparing results obtained by coupling definition in the step S2 to obtain that the risk of coupling effect of regional geology and construction double factors is different from the risk of the two factors existing independently;
s4, determining the weight of the risk factors to obtain a plurality of large weights and a plurality of small weights;
s5, quantizing the risk factor weight determined in the step S4 and each risk factor participating in coupling in the step S3, and calculating an efficacy function of a numerical value obtained through quantization;
s6, calculating a coupling coefficient according to the efficacy function obtained in the step S5;
and S7, grading the coupling degree according to the coupling degree coefficient obtained in the step S6, wherein different grades correspond to different risk evaluations.
Further, the coupling definition of the tunnel risk related factors in the step S2 comprises the following steps:
s201, dividing risk related factors into single-factor risks and double-factor risks;
s202, calculating the single and double factor risk coupling degrees;
s203, calculating the single-factor risk coupling degree according to the following formula (1):
wherein T represents risk coupling degree, a is a single risk factor, namely a complex geology or construction factor risk factor; ph is the probability of single-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the h state, and Ph is the sum of the probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the h state;
the two-factor risk coupling is calculated as follows (2):
wherein T represents risk coupling degree, a and b represent two types of risk factors, namely complex geology and construction factor risk factors; ph and d are probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when complex geology and construction factor risks are respectively in an h state and a d state; p.d is the sum of the probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the d state;
and S204, obtaining a coupling degree result according to the single-factor risk coupling degree calculation formula and the double-factor risk coupling degree calculation formula.
Further, comparing the results of the coupling definition in step S3 includes the following steps:
s301, if T (a,b) >T (a) Indicating a complex geology andthe risk of the coupling effect of the construction factors is greater than the risk of the independent existence of 2 factors, the risk of tunnel disaster accidents under complex geology and construction factors is increased along with the increase of the coupling factors, the result is consistent with the actual situation, and meanwhile, the good applicability of the N-K model is verified;
s302, if T (a,b) <T (a) Indicating that the coupling between complex geological and construction factors is less than 2 risks when present alone.
Further, the determination of the index weight in step S4 includes the following steps:
s401, representing the weight of the risk factors as w i ＝(w 1 w 2 … w n ) Wherein w is i Represents the weight of the ith factor in the factor set U, and
s402, obtaining a traditional initial judgment matrix A = (a) by adopting a traditional 1-9 scale marking ij ) n×n Wherein a is ij Is the ith row and the jth column element of the matrix A, and n is the matrix order;
s403, use of a' ij The (alpha) function converts the traditional judgment matrix into a fuzzy complementary judgment matrix to obtain
Wherein alpha is a parameter and satisfies alpha =18, and after conversion, the fuzzy complementary judging matrix A '= (a' ij ) n×n ；
S404, converting the fuzzy complementary matrix A '= (a' ij ) n×n Sum by row
i＝1,2,…,n；
S405, converting the fuzzy complementary matrix elements to obtain fuzzy consistency judgment matrix elements, and forming a fuzzy consistency judgment matrix
Wherein r is ij Elements of the fuzzy consistency judgment matrix are judged, so that a fuzzy consistency judgment matrix R can be obtained ij ＝(r ij ) n×n ；
S406, obtaining the weight, and calculating the weight according to the following formula (3):
Further, the quantization process in step S5 includes the following steps:
s501, quantifying each risk factor participating in coupling based on a cloud model of an expert scoring method, multiplying the risk factors by a large weight and then multiplying the risk factors by a small weight, and quantifying;
s502, the expectation value Ex, the entropy En, and the super entropy He reflect the representative value, the measure, and the degree of dispersion of the expert rating data, respectively,
is the mean of sample data xi;
variance:
desired values:
entropy:
super entropy:
and S503, multiplying the number calculated in the formula S502 by the large weight and the small weight under the index to obtain the variance, the expected value, the entropy and the super entropy in the cloud model.
Further, the step of calculating the coupling coefficient in step S6 includes the following steps:
s601, calculating an efficacy function of the numerical value obtained in the step S5;
s602, setting Exij as an expected value of a jth component of a tunnel disaster accident risk ith type factor under complex geology and construction factors, wherein Aij and Bij are respectively an upper limit and a lower limit of the index;
s603, obtaining an efficacy function Uij of the risk component to the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the whole complex geology and construction factors as
The orderly contribution degree Ui of the n-1 layer risk factor to the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the whole complex geology and construction factors is
s604, calculating a coupling coefficient according to the efficacy function calculated in the step S603, wherein the calculation formula is as follows (4):
s605, judging the coupling degree obtained by the calculation in the step S604, wherein the coupling degree C belongs to [0,1];
s606, the degree of coupling obtained in step S605 is classified into coupling states in physics to obtain:
when C belongs to [0,0.3], the coupling is low, which indicates that the safety and stability of the current tunnel are higher;
when C belongs to (0.3, 0.7), the coupling is middle coupling, which indicates that the supervision is to be strengthened on the tunnel, and unnecessary disasters are avoided;
and when the C belongs to (0.7, 1), strong coupling indicates that the risk of the tunnel construction disaster under the coupling of regional geology and construction two factors is higher.
The beneficial effects of the invention are: compared with the prior art, the invention has the improvement that,
1. the method utilizes the combination of an N-K model and a coupling degree model as a modeling basis to carry out quantitative analysis on the coupling relation of complex geology and construction factors, constructs a tunnel risk analysis method coupling model under the coupling of regional geology and construction double factors, calculates the coupling degree between certain components of single and double risk factor coupling, quantifies the risk degree of various coupling, and analyzes the relevance mechanism between the factors.
2. The invention improves an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), calculates a large amount based on an expert scoring method to finally obtain a cloud model, quantifies each risk factor, and can effectively reduce the subjectivity of the expert scoring and ensure the objectivity in the coupling degree of each risk factor compared with the traditional analytic hierarchy process. The method is clear and simple, is convenient for field workers to quickly understand, and effectively solves the problem that the tunnel risk analysis method has more steps and is complex in calculation.
3. The method combines the improved AHP and N-K model, analyzes risks based on the N-K model and the coupling degree model, can perform AHP analysis only when the result accords with the actual condition, and needs to be evaluated again when the result does not accord with the N-K model, so that the data is more accurate.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a risk analysis method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a risk analysis system according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the following further describes the technical solution of the present invention with reference to the drawings and the embodiments.
The invention provides a tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on regional geology and construction double factors, which comprises the following steps:
s1, summarizing tunnel risk related factors including tunnel disaster accident issuing, tunnel construction accident type analysis, analysis of tunnel disaster risk constituent elements under the complex geological environment and analysis of tunnel disaster risk constituent elements under the environment of related construction factors in the aspect of influence research of tunnel disaster risks under the complex geological environment according to existing documents;
s2, coupling and defining the relevant factors of the tunnel risk in the step S1, wherein the single-factor risk refers to the interaction and influence between the risk factors to which the single risk factor belongs, which is one of the complex geology and the construction factor causing the tunnel disaster accident due to coupling, and comprises the complex geology-complex geology coupling and the construction factor-construction factor coupling, and the double-risk factor refers to the interaction and influence between the two risk factors, namely the complex geology causing the tunnel disaster accident due to coupling influence and the construction factor, and comprises the complex geology-construction factor coupling;
the coupling definition of the tunnel risk related factors comprises the following steps:
s201, dividing risk related factors into single-factor risk and double-factor risk;
s202, calculating the risk coupling degrees of single factors and double factors;
s203, calculating the single-factor risk coupling degree according to the following formula (1):
wherein T represents risk coupling degree, a is a single risk factor, namely a complex geology or construction factor risk factor; ph is the probability of single-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the h state, and Ph is the sum of the probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the h state;
the two-factor risk coupling is calculated as follows (2):
wherein T represents risk coupling degree, a and b represent two types of risk factors, namely complex geology and construction factor risk factors; ph and d are probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when complex geology and construction factor risks are in an h state and a d state respectively; and P.d is the sum of the probabilities of the two-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the d state.
And S204, obtaining a coupling degree result according to the single-factor risk coupling degree calculation formula and the double-factor risk coupling degree calculation formula.
S3, comparing results obtained by coupling definition in the step S2 to obtain that the risk of coupling effect of regional geology and construction double factors is different from the risk of the two factors existing independently; comparing the results of the coupling definitions comprises the steps of:
s301, if T (a,b) >T (a) The risk of coupling effect of the complex geology and the construction factors is larger than the risk of the complex geology and the construction factors when the 2 factors exist independently, the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the complex geology and the construction factors is increased along with the increase of the coupling factors, the result is consistent with the actual situation, and meanwhile, the good applicability of the N-K model is verified;
s302, if T (a,b) <T (a) Indicating that the coupling between complex geological and construction factors is less than 2 risks when present alone.
S4, determining the risk factor weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, comparing the importance degrees of the two constituent elements, adopting a 1-9 proportion scaling method, carrying out consistency check, and expressing the risk factor weight as w i ＝(w 1 w 2 … w n ) Wherein w is i Represents the weight of the ith factor in the factor set U, and
obtaining a traditional initial judgment matrix A = (a) by adopting traditional 1-9 scale scoring ij ) n×n ，a ij Is the jth row and jth column element of matrix A, n is the matrix order, and utilizes a' ij The (alpha) function converts the conventional decision matrix into a fuzzy complementary decision matrix,
alpha is a parameter and satisfies alpha =18, and after conversion, a fuzzy complementary judging matrix A '= (a' ij ) n×n And the converted fuzzy complementary matrix A '= (a' ij ) n×n Sum by row
Converting the fuzzy complementary matrix elements to obtain fuzzy consistency judgment matrix elements, and forming a fuzzy consistency judgment matrix
r ij Elements of the fuzzy consistency judging matrix are used, so that a fuzzy consistency judging matrix R can be obtained ij ＝(r ij ) n×n
The weights are calculated as follows (3):
S5, quantizing the risk factor weight determined in the step S4 and each risk factor participating in coupling in the step S3, and calculating an efficacy function of a numerical value obtained through quantization;
s501, quantifying each risk factor participating in coupling based on a cloud model of an expert scoring method, multiplying the risk factors by a large weight and then multiplying the risk factors by a small weight, and quantifying;
s502, the expectation value Ex, the entropy En, and the super entropy He reflect the representative value, the measure, and the degree of dispersion of the expert rating data, respectively,
is the mean of sample data xi;
variance:
desired values:
entropy:
super entropy:
and S503, multiplying the number calculated in the formula S502 by the large weight and the small weight under the index to obtain the variance, the expected value, the entropy and the super entropy in the cloud model.
S6, calculating a coupling coefficient according to the efficacy function obtained in the step S5; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s601, calculating an efficacy function of the numerical value obtained in the step S5;
s602, setting Exij as an expected value of a jth component of a tunnel disaster accident risk ith type factor under complex geology and construction factors, wherein Aij and Bij are respectively an upper limit and a lower limit of the index;
s603, obtaining an efficacy function Uij of the risk component to the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the whole complex geology and construction factors as
The orderly contribution degree Ui of the n-1 layer risk factor to the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the whole complex geology and construction factors is
s604, calculating a coupling coefficient according to the efficacy function calculated in the step S603, wherein the calculation formula is as follows (4):
s605, judging through the coupling degree calculated in the step S604, wherein the coupling degree C belongs to [0,1];
s606, the degree of coupling obtained in step S605 is classified into coupling states in physics to obtain:
when C belongs to [0,0.3], the coupling is low, which indicates that the safety and stability of the current tunnel are higher;
when C belongs to (0.3, 0.7), the intermediate coupling indicates that the supervision of the tunnel is strengthened and unnecessary disasters are avoided;
and when the C belongs to (0.7, 1), strong coupling indicates that the risk of the tunnel construction disaster under the coupling of regional geology and construction two factors is higher.
The risk assessment type comprises an association mechanism of the tunnel disaster risk value and each risk component under the coupling of complex geology and construction factors.
The risk factors are quantified based on a cloud model of an expert scoring method, so that the subjectivity of expert scoring can be reduced.
The tunnel disaster accident hidden danger factor evaluation data and the disaster factor data are used for carrying out overall risk evaluation in tunnel construction, including accident type analysis in tunnel construction and accident death number in tunnel construction.
Examples
In this embodiment, tunnel construction accidents occurring in each province (autonomous region, direct prefecture city) in 2009-2019 without hong kong special administrative region, australian special administrative region and taiwan province are counted, and 375 people die from the accident 101.
In this embodiment, the sources of the accident statistics mainly include the following ways:
(1) A website of emergency administration of the people's republic of China; (2) The safety management network (3) is a safety accident condition reporting system of the housing of the people's republic of China and the Ministry of urban and rural construction; (4) public reports of news newspapers and news websites; (5) other references.
The tunnel collapse accident is the main type of tunnel construction accident, and accounts for 63.37% of the total number of accidents, and the number of dead people is the most, and accounts for 46.93% of the total number of dead people. The method is consistent with the construction condition of the tunnel, and the collapse accidents of different degrees can be caused by the frequent occurrence of complex geological conditions such as high ground stress, weak surrounding rocks, fault broken zones and the like in the tunnel construction process. The second is an explosion accident, accounting for 10.89% of the total number of accidents and 20.27% of the total number of deaths. From the single-accident average number of deaths, although the total number of collapsed accidents and the total number of deaths are the largest, the single-accident average number of deaths is not the highest. On the contrary, although the total number of explosion accidents and the total death number are less than those of collapse accidents, the average death number of single accidents is very high, and serious casualty accidents are more easily caused. The explosion accident is mainly related to tunnel construction factors, and the occurrence of the explosion accident can be caused by the unreasonable operation of constructors and the insecurity of blasting devices. Different types of tunnel construction accidents are generated under the coupling of complex geological conditions and construction factors, and the analysis of the reasons for the different types of tunnel accidents is of great significance for reducing the occurrence of the tunnel accidents.
S1, in 2009-2019 years of domestic tunnel disaster accidents, according to analysis of tunnel disaster risk component elements under complex geology and construction factor environments, sorting and summarizing reasons causing tunnel disaster accidents, and analyzing to obtain the distribution conditions of the tunnel disaster accidents under the complex geology and construction factors, wherein the distribution conditions are shown in the following table:
s2, respectively marking the sequence of two types of risk factors of complex geology and construction factors by adopting 0 and 1, wherein 1 represents the risk participation and causes accidents, and 0 represents the risk non-participation but causes accidents, so that 4 possible risk factor coupling forms are total. According to the sorted 101-stage tunnel disaster accident data, the frequency and the frequency of tunnel disaster accidents caused by each type of combined risk factor coupling form are shown in the following table:
P (0.) ＝P (00) +P (01) ＝0.4059
P (1.) ＝P (10) +P (11) ＝0.5941
P (.0) ＝P (00) +P (10) ＝0.1782
P (.1) ＝P (01) +P (11) ＝0.8218
the occurrence probability under the condition of determining the double risk factors is as follows:
P (00) ＝0，P (01) ＝0.4059
P (10) ＝0.1782，P (11) ＝0.4159
T (a) ＝P (00) log 2 (P (00) /P (0.) )+P (01) log 2 (P (01) /P (0.) )+P (10) log 2 (P (10) /P (1.) )＝-0.3097
T (a，b) ＝P (11) log 2 [P (11) /(P (1.) P (.1) )]＝-0.0962
s3, obtaining the following calculation results: t is (a,b) >T (a) (ii) a The risk of coupling effect of complex geology and construction factors is larger than the risk of the condition that 2 factors exist independently, the risk of tunnel disaster accidents under the complex geology and construction factors is increased along with the increase of the coupling factors, the result is consistent with the actual condition, and meanwhile, the good applicability of the N-K model is verified;
and S4, comparing the importance degrees of the two components under the complex geology and construction factors by adopting a 1-9 scale method, and comprehensively selecting experts engaged in the field of tunnel construction research to score the components of the tunnel disaster risk accident based on an expert scoring method of a cloud model to obtain the expected value Ex, the entropy En and the super-entropy He of the quantitative values of the risk factors. The tunnel disaster risk factor weight and the expert scoring result based on the cloud model under the complex geology and construction factors are as follows:
s5, the grading data is in the range of [0,1], aij =1 and Bij =0 are selected here, and the effective values of the risk factors of all levels are calculated, as shown in the following table.
And S6, calculating the double-factor coupling degree of the tunnel disaster accident risk under the complex geology and construction factors, wherein the specific calculation result is as shown in the table below.
By combining the above embodiments and examples, the following results can be obtained: the tunnel construction disaster risk under the coupling of the complex geology and the construction factors is strong coupling, and the tunnel construction disaster risk accords with the characteristics of high concealment, high danger, many unknown factors and the like of tunnel construction.
The tunnel construction under the complex geological environment is easily influenced by construction factors, the construction method and the construction technology are unreasonable, and tunnel disaster accidents are possibly caused by unreasonable operation of constructors, unqualified tunnel construction material quality and faults of mechanical devices.
Therefore, in the tunneling process, a scientific and reasonable construction method is adopted according to the geological conditions of tunnel construction, and the construction technical measures are ensured to play a role. Secondly strengthen tunnel construction risk prevention work, improve managers ' supervision dynamics and tunnel constructor's safety precaution consciousness, construct according to the standard requirement strictly, ensure tunnel construction's safety. And finally, the rigid requirements of tunnel construction are ensured, the quality safety of tunnel construction materials is strictly supervised, and meanwhile, the daily inspection and maintenance of tunnel construction equipment are well carried out.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles, essential features, and advantages of the invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (6)
1. A tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on regional geology and construction double factors is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, analyzing the correlation between regional geology and construction double factors and tunnel risks;
s2, coupling and defining the tunnel risk related factors in the step S1;
s3, comparing results obtained by coupling definition in the step S2 to obtain that the risk of coupling effect of regional geology and construction double factors is different from the risk of the two factors existing independently;
s4, determining the risk factor weight to obtain a plurality of large weights and a plurality of small weights;
s5, quantizing the risk factor weight determined in the step S4 and each risk factor participating in coupling in the step S3, and calculating an efficacy function of a numerical value obtained through quantization;
s6, calculating a coupling coefficient according to the efficacy function obtained in the step S5;
and S7, grading the coupling degree according to the coupling degree coefficient obtained in the step S6, wherein different grades correspond to different risk evaluations.
2. The tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on regional geology and construction two factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: the coupling definition of the tunnel risk related factors in the step S2 comprises the steps of:
s201, dividing risk related factors into single-factor risks and double-factor risks;
s202, calculating the single and double factor risk coupling degrees;
s203, calculating the single-factor risk coupling degree according to the following formula (1):
wherein, T represents the risk coupling degree, a is a single risk factor, namely a complex geology or construction factor risk factor; ph is the probability of single-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the h state, and Ph is the sum of the probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the h state;
the two-factor risk coupling is calculated as follows (2):
wherein T represents risk coupling degree, a and b represent two types of risk factors, namely complex geology and construction factor risk factors; ph and d are probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when complex geology and construction factor risks are respectively in an h state and a d state; p.d is the sum of the probabilities of double-factor risk coupling when the complex geology or construction factor risk is in the d state;
and S204, obtaining a coupling degree result according to the single-factor risk coupling degree calculation formula and the double-factor risk coupling degree calculation formula.
3. The tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on regional geology and construction two factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: comparing the results of the coupling definition in step S3 comprises the steps of:
s301, if T (a,b) >T (a) The risk of coupling effect of the complex geology and the construction factors is larger than the risk of the complex geology and the construction factors when the 2 factors exist independently, the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the complex geology and the construction factors is increased along with the increase of the coupling factors, the result is consistent with the actual situation, and meanwhile, the good applicability of the N-K model is verified;
s302, if T (a,b) <T (a) Indicating that the coupling between complex geological and construction factors is less than 2 risks when present alone.
4. The tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on regional geology and construction two factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: for the determination of the index weight in step S4, the method includes the following steps:
s401, representing the risk factor weight as w i ＝(w 1 w 2 … w n ) Wherein w is i Represents the weight of the ith factor in the factor set U, and
s402, obtaining a traditional initial judgment matrix A = (a) by adopting a traditional 1-9 scale marking ij ) n×n Wherein a is ij Is the ith row and the jth column element of the matrix A, and n is the matrix order;
s403, use of a' ij The (alpha) function converts the traditional judgment matrix into a fuzzy complementary judgment matrix to obtain
Wherein alpha is a parameter and satisfies alpha =18, and after conversion, the fuzzy complementary judging matrix A '= (a' ij ) n×n ；
S404, converting the fuzzy complementary matrix A '= (a' ij ) n×n Sum by row
i＝1,2,…,n；
S405, converting the fuzzy complementary matrix elements to obtain fuzzy consistency judgment matrix elements, and forming a fuzzy consistency judgment matrix
Wherein r is ij Elements of the fuzzy consistency judgment matrix are judged, so that a fuzzy consistency judgment matrix R can be obtained ij ＝(r ij ) n×n ；
S406, obtaining the weight, and calculating the weight according to the following formula (3):
5. The tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on the regional geology and construction two factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: the quantization process in step S5 includes the steps of:
s501, quantifying each risk factor participating in coupling based on a cloud model of an expert scoring method, multiplying the risk factors by a large weight and then multiplying the risk factors by a small weight, and quantifying;
s502, the expectation value Ex, the entropy En, and the super entropy He reflect the representative value, the measure, and the degree of dispersion of the expert rating data, respectively,
is the mean of sample data xi;
variance:
desired values:
entropy:
super entropy:
and S503, multiplying the number calculated in the formula S502 by the large weight and the small weight under the index to obtain the variance, the expected value, the entropy and the super entropy in the cloud model.
6. The tunnel disaster risk assessment method based on the regional geology and construction two factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: the step of calculating the coupling coefficient in the step S6 includes the steps of:
s601, calculating an efficacy function of the numerical value obtained in the step S5;
s602, setting Exij as an expected value of a jth component of a tunnel disaster accident risk ith type factor under complex geology and construction factors, wherein Aij and Bij are respectively an upper limit and a lower limit of the index;
s603, obtaining an efficacy function Uij of the risk component to the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the whole complex geology and construction factors as
The orderly contribution degree Ui of the n-1 layer risk factor to the risk of the tunnel disaster accident under the whole complex geology and construction factors is
s604, calculating a coupling coefficient according to the efficacy function calculated in the step S603, wherein the calculation formula is as follows (4):
s605, judging the coupling degree obtained by the calculation in the step S604, wherein the coupling degree C belongs to [0,1];
s606, the degree of coupling obtained in step S605 is classified into coupling states in physics to obtain:
when C belongs to [0,0.3], the coupling is low, which indicates that the safety and stability of the current tunnel are higher;
when C belongs to (0.3, 0.7), the coupling is middle coupling, which indicates that the supervision is to be strengthened on the tunnel, and unnecessary disasters are avoided;
and when the C belongs to (0.7, 1), strong coupling indicates that the risk of the tunnel construction disaster under the coupling of regional geology and construction two factors is higher.
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN116152009A (en) * | 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-23 | 铁正检测科技有限公司 | Tunnel geological monitoring management system based on big data |
| CN116502895A (en) * | 2023-06-21 | 2023-07-28 | 交通运输部公路科学研究所 | Open cut highway tunnel adjacent subway engineering collaborative construction risk coupling analysis method |
| CN116703148A (en) * | 2023-04-26 | 2023-09-05 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Cloud computing-based mine enterprise risk portrait method |
| CN116757470A (en) * | 2023-06-05 | 2023-09-15 | 中国标准化研究院 | Early warning system for electric power operation risk |
| CN117196313A (en) * | 2023-09-25 | 2023-12-08 | 华设设计集团股份有限公司 | Tunnel construction collapse accident coupling risk source identification method |
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- 2022-11-23 CN CN202211477071.1A patent/CN115829322A/en active Pending
Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116152009A (en) * | 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-23 | 铁正检测科技有限公司 | Tunnel geological monitoring management system based on big data |
| CN116703148A (en) * | 2023-04-26 | 2023-09-05 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Cloud computing-based mine enterprise risk portrait method |
| CN116703148B (en) * | 2023-04-26 | 2024-01-23 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Cloud computing-based mine enterprise risk portrait method |
| CN116757470A (en) * | 2023-06-05 | 2023-09-15 | 中国标准化研究院 | Early warning system for electric power operation risk |
| CN116757470B (en) * | 2023-06-05 | 2024-03-22 | 中国标准化研究院 | Early warning system for electric power operation risk |
| CN116502895A (en) * | 2023-06-21 | 2023-07-28 | 交通运输部公路科学研究所 | Open cut highway tunnel adjacent subway engineering collaborative construction risk coupling analysis method |
| CN116502895B (en) * | 2023-06-21 | 2023-11-21 | 交通运输部公路科学研究所 | Open cut highway tunnel adjacent subway engineering collaborative construction risk coupling analysis method |
| CN117196313A (en) * | 2023-09-25 | 2023-12-08 | 华设设计集团股份有限公司 | Tunnel construction collapse accident coupling risk source identification method |
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