CN115600527A - Reservoir operation state prediction analysis method based on reservoir environment data - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a reservoir operation state prediction analysis method based on reservoir environment data, and belongs to the technical field of intelligent water affairs. The forecasting analysis method comprises the steps of obtaining reservoir operation data and reservoir operation capacity data; the reservoir operation capacity data is used for reflecting the maximum water storage capacity and the capacity of resisting sediment deformation of the reservoir; judging the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data by using the variable quantity of the reservoir operation data; analyzing the silt storage trend by combining the reservoir environment type with the reservoir operation data; and obtaining an analysis result based on the reservoir operation capacity by utilizing the silt storage trend. The method can judge whether the underground river exchanges water with the reservoir in time according to the reservoir operation data, discover the accuracy of the underground river dynamic which is beneficial to follow-up prediction and analysis in time, and relate the overturning effect of the underground river and the sediment accumulated in the sedimentation area by constructing a sediment sedimentation model and a formula derivation, so that the influence of the sediment on the reservoir operation state can be expressed visually.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent water affairs, and particularly relates to a reservoir operation state prediction analysis method based on reservoir environment data.
Background
The reservoir is an artificial lake formed by building a barrage at a narrow opening of a mountain ditch or a river, and can be used for irrigation, power generation, flood control and fish culture. The reservoir is an important component of water resource management, and one side of water and soil can be improved by effective reservoir operation. Therefore, the prediction analysis of the running state of the reservoir according to the reservoir environment data can play a crucial role in the management operation of the reservoir. At present, the flow prediction of a reservoir is mature, and flood prevention, drought resistance, power generation, domestic water and ecological environment improvement of the reservoir can be judged favorably through the flow prediction.
In the prior art, among the factors influencing the water conservancy construction, the flow velocity of a settling area near the water conservancy construction is slow, silt can settle and accumulate in the area, if the environment at the bottom of a water area is stable, silt settlement can be predicted according to the flow velocity and the sand content, but the construction of a reservoir changes the surrounding water environment, the water volume change of a surrounding underground river is difficult to determine, when the reservoir is communicated with the underground river, the underground river can exchange water with the water area at variable time, the surge of the underground river can influence the deposited silt in the settling area, and the different accumulation forms of the deposited silt have different extrusion effects on the water conservancy construction. In conclusion, due to uncontrollable underground river factors, the operation difficulty of timely sand discharging and dredging become reservoir operation is caused, and the limitation of the prediction and analysis of the existing reservoir operation state is reflected.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to: the reservoir operation state prediction analysis method based on the reservoir environment data is provided to solve the problems in the prior art.
The technical scheme is as follows: the reservoir running state prediction analysis method based on the reservoir environmental data comprises the following steps:
acquiring reservoir operation data and reservoir operation capacity data; the reservoir operation capacity data is used for reflecting the maximum water storage capacity and the capacity of resisting sediment deformation of the reservoir;
judging the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data by using the variable quantity of the reservoir operation data;
analyzing the silt storage trend by combining the reservoir environment type with the reservoir operation data;
obtaining an analysis result based on the reservoir operation capacity by utilizing the silt storage trend;
and obtaining a prediction result of the reservoir operation state according to the analysis result.
Further, the step of judging the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data by using the variable quantity of the reservoir operation data comprises the following steps:
the reservoir operation data comprises water storage amount, inflow amount and discharge amount, and if the variation of the water storage amount is weakly related to the difference value of the inflow amount and the discharge amount, the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is an underground river factor;
otherwise, the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a non-underground river factor.
Further, the analysis of the sediment storage trend by utilizing the type of the reservoir environment and the reservoir operation data comprises the following steps:
when the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a non-underground river factor, the silt storage trend is unchanged;
and when the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is an underground river factor, analyzing the silt storage trend by using the variation of the water storage capacity of the reservoir.
Further, the analysis of the sediment storage trend by using the variation of the water storage capacity of the reservoir comprises the following steps:
when the difference value between the inflow amount and the discharge amount is unchanged and the inflow amount is smaller than the discharge amount, if the change trend of the water storage amount is slowed down or the water storage amount is increased, the silt storage trend is a climbing and accumulating trend; otherwise, the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend;
when the difference value between the inflow amount and the discharge amount is unchanged and the inflow amount is larger than the discharge amount, if the variation trend of the water storage amount is slowed down or the water storage amount is reduced, the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend; otherwise, the silt storage trend is a climbing accumulation trend.
Further, the analysis result obtained by utilizing the sediment storage trend based on the reservoir operation capacity comprises the following steps:
if the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend, the analysis result is water conservancy building safety;
otherwise, simulating the accumulation form of the sediment after unit time under the climbing accumulation trend, and acquiring the extrusion stress of the sediment under the simulated accumulation form on the water conservancy building;
judging whether the extrusion stress is in the range of the data of the operation capacity of the reservoir, if so, analyzing the result as the water conservancy building safety; otherwise, the analysis result is water conservancy construction danger.
Further, simulating the accumulation form of the sediment after the unit time under the climbing accumulation trend comprises:
obtaining an initial accumulation form of the sediment;
simulating a sediment disturbance form generated by water exchange between an underground river and a reservoir after unit time based on an initial accumulation form of deposited sediment;
wherein the unit time ranges from 5 to 15 minutes.
Further, obtaining an initial packing pattern of the sediment includes:
acquiring initial shape survey data of sediment;
establishing a sediment sedimentation model;
predicting the sediment amount after unit time through a sediment sedimentation model;
and overlapping the initial form survey data with the sediment deposition amount after unit time to obtain the initial accumulation form of sediment deposition.
Furthermore, the sediment sedimentation model is used for reflecting the influence of the flow velocity, the sand content and the water depth of the sedimentation area on the sediment sedimentation amount.
Furthermore, simulating the sediment disturbance form generated by water exchange between the underground river and the reservoir after unit time based on the initial accumulation form of the deposited sediment;
Calculating the gradient of the sediment form, wherein theta is the gradient of the sediment disturbance form, the height of the sediment disturbance form, K is a volume coefficient, Q is the sediment deposition amount predicted by the sediment deposition model in unit time, B is the length of the water conservancy building, L is the width of a deposition area, a is a disturbance coefficient, and V is the height of the deposition area Water (I) The method comprises the following steps of (1) exchanging water volume of an underground river and a reservoir, v is flow speed of the exchanging water volume, and S is distance between the underground river and a settling area;
and characterizing the sediment disturbance form by utilizing the gradient of the sediment form.
Further, if the analysis result is water conservancy building safety, the prediction result of the reservoir operation state is water quantity adjustment based on the reservoir operation capacity data and the reservoir operation data; the water quantity adjustment comprises the following steps: when the water storage capacity reaches the peak value of the reservoir operation capacity data, the water quantity is adjusted to be water discharged by opening a gate; otherwise, the prediction result of the reservoir operation state is sand discharge and desilting.
Has the advantages that: according to the method, whether the underground river is subjected to water exchange with the reservoir or not is judged in time according to the reservoir operation data, the accuracy of follow-up prediction and analysis is facilitated by finding out the dynamic state of the underground river in time, the effect of the underground river surge is related to the sediment accumulated in the sedimentation area by constructing a sediment sedimentation model and a formula derivation, the influence of the sediment on the reservoir operation state is visually expressed, and a direction is given for the adaptive adjustment of the extrusion stress for the reservoir operation state.
In conclusion, the method and the device predict the sediment state of the sedimentation area influenced by the factors of the underground river, provide possibility for timely sediment discharge and dredging of the reservoir, reduce the threat of the disturbed and deposited sediment of the underground river to water conservancy buildings, and widen the application range and accuracy of the prediction analysis of the running state of the existing reservoir.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a step diagram of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a more thorough understanding of the present invention. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art, that the present invention may be practiced without one or more of these specific details. In other instances, well-known features have not been described in order to avoid obscuring the invention.
Example 1:
as shown in fig. 1, the method for predicting and analyzing the operating state of the reservoir based on the environmental data of the reservoir includes:
step 1: acquiring reservoir operation data and reservoir operation capacity data; the reservoir operation capacity data is used for reflecting the maximum water storage capacity of the reservoir and the capacity of resisting sediment deformation. The method comprises the steps that reservoir operation data and reservoir operation capacity data are obtained from a water conservancy department, wherein the reservoir operation data are collected in real time through various detection devices arranged on a reservoir, the detection devices comprise sonar detection devices used for collecting water storage capacity, flow detection devices arranged at a water inlet and a water outlet of the reservoir, sand content detection devices distributed at different positions of the reservoir and the like, and the reservoir operation capacity data are obtained through the design scheme and the application quality of the reservoir.
Step 2: and judging the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data by using the variable quantity of the reservoir operation data. The method and the system have the advantages that a plurality of factors influencing the operation of the reservoir are provided, the influence of the underground river on the accumulation form of the sediment is developed, and after the operation data of the reservoir is obtained, whether the underground river participates in the prediction of the operation state of the reservoir or not is judged according to the change condition of the operation data of the reservoir.
And step 3: and analyzing the silt storage trend by combining the reservoir environment type with the reservoir operation data. When the underground river influences the running state of the reservoir, the water exchange condition of the underground river and the reservoir is judged by combining real-time reservoir running data, and the influence of the underground river on the sediment storage trend, namely the influence of the underground river on the sediment accumulation form, is analyzed according to the state of the underground river.
And 4, step 4: and obtaining an analysis result based on the reservoir operation capacity by utilizing the sediment storage trend. And predicting the accumulation form of the sediment after a certain time according to the sediment storage trend, calculating the extrusion force of the sediment on the water conservancy building according to the accumulation form, and comparing the calculated extrusion force with the reservoir operation capacity to obtain an analysis result of whether the reservoir can safely operate.
The method comprises the steps of judging whether the underground river is subjected to water exchange with the reservoir in time according to the reservoir operation data, finding out the accuracy of the underground river dynamic condition which is favorable for follow-up prediction and analysis in time, and correlating the underground river surge effect with the sediment accumulated in a settling area by constructing a sediment settling model and a formula derivation, so that the influence of the sediment on the reservoir operation state is visually expressed, and the adaptive adjustment of the reservoir operation state aiming at the extrusion stress is made.
The step 2 specifically comprises the following steps:
the reservoir operation data comprises water storage amount, inflow amount and discharge amount, and if the variation of the water storage amount is weakly related to the difference value of the inflow amount and the discharge amount, the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is an underground river factor;
otherwise, the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a non-underground river factor.
The factors of the non-underground river comprise factors such as weather (mainly rainfall and evaporation), agricultural irrigation, water storage and drainage and the like, the influence of the factors of the non-underground river on the water storage capacity of the reservoir can be obtained through detection or metering equipment, the influence of the factors of the underground river cannot be measured, and when the water storage capacity of the reservoir is greatly deviated from the data of inflow amount and discharge amount, the underground river can be absolutely determined to intervene in the operation data of the reservoir.
The step 3 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 31: when the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a non-underground river factor, the silt storage trend is unchanged; under the condition that the silt storage trend is unchanged, silt in the settling zone is still accumulated in a free settling mode, and the accumulation form is related to the flow velocity, the silt content and the water depth of the settling zone.
Step 32: and when the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a factor of the underground river, analyzing the sediment storage trend by using the variation of the water storage capacity of the reservoir.
Step 32 specifically includes:
when the difference value between the inflow amount and the discharge amount is unchanged and the inflow amount is smaller than the discharge amount, if the variation trend of the water storage amount is slowed down or the water storage amount is increased, the silt storage trend is a climbing accumulation trend; otherwise, the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend. That is, when the reservoir operation data shows that the reservoir is discharging water at a constant speed, the water discharging speed is slowed down or the water storage capacity is increased, so that the underground river gushes water into the reservoir, and the water energy entering the reservoir in gushing water is finally transmitted to a water conservancy building; otherwise, the underground river absorbs water, the form of the deposited silt is absorbed, and the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend.
When the difference value between the inflow amount and the discharge amount is unchanged and the inflow amount is larger than the discharge amount, if the variation trend of the water storage amount is slowed down or the water storage amount is reduced, the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend; otherwise, the silt storage trend is a climbing accumulation trend. The principle is the same as the principle, when the reservoir operation data shows that the reservoir is in constant-speed water storage, the speed of stored water is slowed down or the water storage amount is reduced, which shows that the underground river absorbs water from the reservoir, the water absorption effect is a top-bottom acting mode, the form of deposited silt is flat, so that the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend, otherwise, the underground river gushes water, and the silt storage trend is a climbing accumulation trend.
The step 4 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 41: if the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend, the analysis result is water conservancy building safety; sediment silt is gentle in the settlement zone is compiled under the trend of gentle dumping, weakens the extrusion effect to water conservancy building, so the analysis result is water conservancy building safety.
Otherwise, simulating the simulated accumulation form of the sediment after unit time under the climbing accumulation trend, and acquiring the extrusion stress of the sediment under the simulated accumulation form on the water conservancy building; the rising accumulation trend can make the accumulational higher of sediment silt, and this leads to sediment silt to change the compressive stress of water conservancy building, is a unfavorable factor to the steady operation of water conservancy building, so need simulate to pile up the compressive stress of sediment silt to water conservancy building under the form to realize the judgement of water conservancy building safe operation.
Step 42: judging whether the extrusion stress is in the range of the reservoir operation capacity data, if so, judging that the analysis result is water conservancy building safety; otherwise, the analysis result is water conservancy construction danger. And obtaining an analysis result based on the comparison result of the reservoir operation capacity data range and the extrusion stress, wherein the analysis result directly reflects and simulates the threat of sediment deposition under the accumulation form to the water conservancy buildings.
Step 41 specifically includes:
step 411: obtaining an initial accumulation form of the sediment; the initial accumulation form is a sediment deposition form when the underground river participates in the reservoir operation data, the precision of the initial accumulation form has large influence on the simulation accumulation form, and the accuracy of the initial accumulation form is very important.
Step 411 specifically includes:
step 4111: acquiring initial form survey data of sediment; survey data is regularly collected underwater by water conservancy staff to guarantee the truth and accuracy of the data, the survey period takes months as a unit, the actual condition can be reasonably adjusted according to the sand inlet amount of the reservoir, the underwater collection is needed after the reservoir is desilted and desilted besides the regular survey, and the data is favorable for optimizing the learning method of the sediment settlement model.
Step 4112: establishing a sediment sedimentation model; and constructing a sediment settlement model according to the collected survey data, wherein the sediment settlement model is used for reflecting the influence of the flow velocity, the sand content and the water depth of the settlement area on the sediment settlement.
Step 4113: predicting the sediment amount after unit time through a sediment sedimentation model; the predicted time length takes the last survey time as a starting point and takes the underground river starting to disturb the sediment as a time end point.
Step 4114: and superposing the initial shape survey data and the sediment deposition amount after unit time to obtain the initial accumulation shape of the sediment deposition. The initial accumulation form is obtained by superposition of the survey value and the predicted value, and the sediment settlement model can learn through next survey data.
Step 412: simulating a sediment disturbance form generated by water exchange between the underground river and the reservoir after unit time based on the initial accumulation form of the deposited sediment; wherein the unit time ranges from 5 to 15 minutes.
Step 412 specifically includes;
wherein theta is the gradient of the sediment disturbance form (the section of sediment deposited in a settling zone is approximate to a triangle), h is the height of the sediment disturbance form, and K is the volume coefficient of the sediment (K)<1, K is related to the relative position of the underground river opening and the water conservancy building, the size of the underground river opening and the length of the water conservancy building), Q is the sediment deposition amount of the sediment deposition model after unit time is predicted, B is the length of the water conservancy building, L is the width of a deposition area, and a is a disturbance coefficient (0)<a<<1, a is related to the gushing data of the past ventilation period, a is continuously corrected according to the data accumulation), V Water (W) For exchanging water volume (V) of underground river and reservoir Water (W) Equal to the absolute value of the difference between the inflow and discharge amounts and the difference between the water storage amounts), V is the flow rate of the exchanged water amount (V) Water (W) The ratio of the S to the time), wherein S is the distance between the underground river and the subsidence area; and characterizing the sediment disturbance form by utilizing the gradient of the sediment form. The distance between the underground river and the subsidence area and the size of the opening are obtained through surveying.
Example 2:
after the analysis results were obtained in example 1, the prediction results of the reservoir operation state were obtained based on the analysis results.
And if the analysis result is the water conservancy building safety, the prediction result of the reservoir operation state is the water output adjustment based on the reservoir operation capacity data and the reservoir operation data. Wherein, the water yield adjustment includes: and when the water storage capacity reaches the peak value of the reservoir operation capacity data, adjusting the water quantity to open the gate and drain water.
Otherwise, the prediction result of the reservoir operation state is the sediment removal and desilting.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, however, the present invention is not limited to the specific details of the embodiments, and various equivalent changes can be made to the technical solution of the present invention within the technical scope of the present invention, and these equivalent changes are all within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. The reservoir operation state prediction analysis method based on the reservoir environment data is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring reservoir operation data and reservoir operation capacity data; the reservoir operation capacity data is used for reflecting the maximum water storage capacity of the reservoir and the capacity of resisting sediment deformation;
judging the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data by using the variable quantity of the reservoir operation data;
analyzing the silt storage trend by combining the reservoir environment type with the reservoir operation data;
and obtaining an analysis result based on the reservoir operation capacity by utilizing the sediment storage trend.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the determining the type of the reservoir environment affecting the reservoir operation data based on the variation of the reservoir operation data comprises:
the reservoir operation data comprises water storage amount, inflow amount and discharge amount, and if the variation of the water storage amount is weakly related to the difference between the inflow amount and the discharge amount, the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is an underground river factor;
otherwise, the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a non-underground river factor.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein analyzing the silt storage trend using the type of the reservoir environment in combination with the reservoir operation data comprises:
when the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is a non-underground river factor, the silt storage trend is unchanged;
and when the type of the reservoir environment influencing the reservoir operation data is an underground river factor, analyzing the silt storage trend by using the variation of the water storage capacity of the reservoir.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein analyzing the silt storage tendency using the variation of the water storage capacity of the reservoir comprises:
when the difference value between the inflow amount and the discharge amount is unchanged and the inflow amount is smaller than the discharge amount, if the variation trend of the water storage amount is slowed down or the water storage amount is increased, the silt storage trend is a climbing accumulation trend; otherwise, the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend;
when the difference value between the inflow amount and the discharge amount is unchanged and the inflow amount is larger than the discharge amount, if the variation trend of the water storage amount is slowed down or the water storage amount is reduced, the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend; otherwise, the silt storage trend is a climbing accumulation trend.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the obtaining of the analysis based on the reservoir operation capability using the silt storage tendency comprises:
if the silt storage trend is a gentle dumping trend, the analysis result is water conservancy building safety;
otherwise, simulating the simulated accumulation form of the sediment after unit time under the climbing accumulation trend, and acquiring the extrusion stress of the sediment under the simulated accumulation form on the water conservancy building;
judging whether the extrusion stress is in the range of the data of the operation capacity of the reservoir, if so, analyzing the result as the water conservancy building safety; otherwise, the analysis result is water conservancy construction danger.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein simulating the accumulation form of sediment in the ascending accumulation trend after a unit time comprises:
obtaining an initial accumulation form of the sediment;
simulating a sediment disturbance form generated by water exchange between an underground river and a reservoir after unit time based on an initial accumulation form of deposited sediment;
wherein the unit time ranges from 5 to 15 minutes.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein obtaining the initial accumulation form of the sediment comprises:
acquiring initial form survey data of sediment;
establishing a sediment sedimentation model;
predicting the sediment amount after unit time through a sediment sedimentation model;
and overlapping the initial form survey data with the sediment deposition amount after unit time to obtain the initial accumulation form of sediment deposition.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the sediment sedimentation model is used to reflect the influence of the flow rate, the sediment concentration and the water depth in the sedimentation area on the sediment concentration.
9. The method of claim 6, wherein simulating a disturbance pattern of sediment generated by water exchange between the underground river and the reservoir after a unit time based on an initial accumulation pattern of sediment comprises; by the formulaAnd formula
Calculating the gradient of the sediment deposition form, wherein theta is the gradient of the sediment disturbance form, h is the height of the sediment disturbance form, K is a volume coefficient, Q is the sediment deposition amount of the sediment deposition model after unit time is predicted, B is the length of the water conservancy building, L is the width of a deposition area, a is a disturbance coefficient, and V is the value of the height of the sediment deposition area Water (W) The water exchange quantity of the underground river and the reservoir is obtained, ν is the flow speed of the water exchange quantity, and S is the distance between the underground river and the settling area; and characterizing the sediment disturbance form by utilizing the gradient of the sediment form.
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