CN115264410A - Submarine pipeline risk assessment method and system - Google Patents
Submarine pipeline risk assessment method and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN115264410A CN115264410A CN202210918466.4A CN202210918466A CN115264410A CN 115264410 A CN115264410 A CN 115264410A CN 202210918466 A CN202210918466 A CN 202210918466A CN 115264410 A CN115264410 A CN 115264410A
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F17—STORING OR DISTRIBUTING GASES OR LIQUIDS
- F17D—PIPE-LINE SYSTEMS; PIPE-LINES
- F17D5/00—Protection or supervision of installations
- F17D5/02—Preventing, monitoring, or locating loss
- F17D5/06—Preventing, monitoring, or locating loss using electric or acoustic means
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F17—STORING OR DISTRIBUTING GASES OR LIQUIDS
- F17D—PIPE-LINE SYSTEMS; PIPE-LINES
- F17D3/00—Arrangements for supervising or controlling working operations
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Abstract
The application relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a submarine pipeline risk assessment method and system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring detection information; acquiring target detection data according to the detection information type; analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state, and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state; judging the target safety level, and acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level to form a target evaluation result; and acquiring a risk evaluation result according to the target security level and the target evaluation result. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method and system can further analyze and assess risks existing in submarine pipelines, and further strengthen risk precautionary measures of the submarine pipelines.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a submarine pipeline risk assessment method and system.
Background
The submarine pipeline is a main mode for marine oil (gas) transportation, is a pipeline for continuously transporting a large amount of oil (gas) on the seabed through a closed pipeline, is a main component of a development and production system of an offshore oil (gas) field, and the operation condition of the submarine pipeline is directly related to the safety of the offshore oil (gas) field.
The method is influenced by complex marine environment, and the submarine pipeline is inevitably influenced by the marine environment during operation, so that the stress condition of the marine pipeline is changed, damage and even breakage are generated, and serious marine environmental pollution is caused.
Due to the fact that the submarine environment where the submarine pipeline is located is complex, an analysis method for effectively analyzing submarine environment data is lacked on the basis of the existing detection technology, and therefore the obtained risk assessment result cannot reflect actual submarine pipeline risks.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to improve the analysis effect of the risk of the submarine pipeline and further strengthen the risk precaution measures of the submarine pipeline, the application provides a submarine pipeline risk assessment method and a submarine pipeline risk assessment system.
In a first aspect, the present application provides a submarine pipeline risk assessment method, which adopts the following technical scheme:
a submarine pipeline risk assessment method comprises the following steps:
acquiring detection information;
acquiring target detection data according to the detection information type;
analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state, and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state;
judging the target safety level, and acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level to form a target evaluation result;
and acquiring a risk evaluation result according to the target security level and the target evaluation result.
By adopting the technical scheme, the target state of the submarine pipeline is analyzed and judged according to the target detection data, the target safety level corresponding to the submarine pipeline is set according to the risk influence degree of the target state on the submarine pipeline, the corresponding target analysis level is further obtained from the target safety level, further judgment is carried out according to the target state in the target analysis level and by combining the corresponding analysis data, the comprehensive evaluation of the target safety level and the target evaluation result is obtained to be used as a risk evaluation result, further analysis and evaluation are carried out on the risk of the submarine pipeline, and the submarine pipeline risk precaution measures are enhanced.
Optionally, the target detection data includes shallow formation profile data, the target state includes a pipeline burying state, and analyzing the target detection data to obtain a corresponding target state, and obtaining a corresponding target security level according to the target state includes the following steps:
analyzing the shallow stratum profile data to obtain a pipeline burying state, wherein the pipeline burying state comprises a suspension state, a exposure state and a burying state;
if the pipeline burying state is the suspended state, the obtained target security level is a low level;
if the pipeline burying state is the exposure state, the obtained target safety level is a middle level;
and if the pipeline burying state is the burying state, the obtained target safety level is a high level.
By adopting the technical scheme, the target safety level corresponding to the pipeline is further judged according to the estimation of the embedding state of the pipeline, so that the risk prevention in the aspect of pipeline embedding is improved.
Optionally, the target state includes a disaster geological state, and the analyzing the target detection data to obtain a corresponding target state and obtaining a corresponding target security level according to the target state includes the following steps:
analyzing the shallow stratum profile data to obtain disaster geological states, wherein the disaster geological states comprise disaster geological states and disaster-free geological states;
if the disaster geological state is a disaster geological state, the acquired target safety level is a low level;
and if the disaster geological state is a non-disaster geological state, the obtained target safety level is a high level.
By adopting the technical scheme, the geological risk of the submarine pipeline can be evaluated according to whether the disaster geology exists in the seabed where the submarine pipeline is located.
Optionally, the step of analyzing the target detection data to obtain a corresponding target state and obtaining a corresponding target security level according to the target state further includes the following steps:
analyzing the shallow stratum profile data to obtain a landform state;
and judging the landform state and obtaining the corresponding target safety level.
By adopting the technical scheme, the submarine landform and landform are further analyzed, and the accuracy of pipeline risk assessment can be improved.
Optionally, the topographic state includes a topographic gradient, and determining the topographic state and acquiring the corresponding target security level includes the following steps:
judging whether the terrain gradient meets a preset gradient rule or not;
if the terrain gradient meets the preset gradient rule, the obtained target safety level is a high level;
and if the terrain gradient does not meet the preset gradient rule, the obtained target safety level is a low level.
By adopting the technical scheme, the actual gradient of the terrain is analyzed according to the preset gradient rule, so that the gradient of the terrain where the pipeline is located can be judged more accurately, and the accuracy of risk assessment is further improved.
Optionally, the landform state includes a erosion-deposition state, and the determining the landform state and obtaining the corresponding target security level includes the following steps:
the scouring state comprises a scouring state, a basic balance state and a silting state;
if the erosion and deposition state is the erosion state, the obtained target safety level is a low level;
if the erosion and deposition state is the basic balance state, the obtained target safety level is a medium level;
and if the erosion and deposition state is the deposition state, the obtained target safety level is a high level.
By adopting the technical scheme, the safety level of the pipeline is judged according to the actual condition of the erosion-deposition state, and the influence of erosion-deposition on the pipeline can be further evaluated.
Optionally, the determining the topographic state and obtaining the corresponding target security level includes:
judging whether the area of the barrier pollutants meets a preset pollution rule or not;
if the area of the obstacle pollutant meets the preset pollution rule, the obtained target safety level is a high level;
and if the area of the obstacle pollutant does not meet the preset pollution rule, the obtained target safety level is a low level.
By adopting the technical scheme, the area of the existing barrier pollutants is judged according to the preset pollution rule, so that the accurate risk assessment can be made on the condition of the barrier pollutants around the pipeline according to the corresponding target safety level.
Optionally, the determining the target security level, obtaining and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level, and forming a target evaluation result includes the following steps:
judging whether the target security level is a low level;
and if the target security level is a low level, acquiring the target state with the low level as a target analysis item, and analyzing the target analysis item to form a target evaluation result.
By adopting the technical scheme, further analysis is carried out according to the risk influence factors with low target safety level, and more standard precautionary measures can be taken for the risk existing in the pipeline.
Optionally, the analyzing the target analysis item to form a target evaluation result includes the following steps:
acquiring target analysis data according to the target analysis item;
and analyzing the target analysis data, and acquiring corresponding risk degrees to form a target evaluation result.
By adopting the technical scheme, the risk degree corresponding to the specific hazard source is judged according to the target analysis data, and then the comprehensive evaluation is carried out, so that more detailed risk evaluation can be further carried out on the existing potential risk on the basis of basic safety level judgment.
In a second aspect, the present application further provides a submarine pipeline risk assessment system, which adopts the following technical scheme:
a subsea pipeline risk assessment system, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring detection information and acquiring target detection data according to the type of the detection information;
the analysis module is used for analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state;
the judging module is used for judging the target security level, acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level and forming a target evaluation result;
and the evaluation module is used for acquiring a corresponding risk evaluation result according to the target evaluation result.
By adopting the technical scheme, the acquisition module transmits the acquired target detection data to the analysis module according to the type of the detection information, the analysis module analyzes and judges the target state of the submarine pipeline according to the target detection data, and further sets a corresponding target safety level for the submarine pipeline according to the target state, then the analysis module transmits the target safety level to the judgment module, the judgment module acquires the corresponding target analysis level from the target safety level, further judges according to the target state at the target analysis level by combining the corresponding analysis data to acquire a corresponding target evaluation result, the judgment module transmits the target evaluation result and the target safety level to the evaluation module, the evaluation module comprehensively analyzes the risk of the submarine pipeline according to the target evaluation result and the target safety level to acquire the corresponding risk evaluation result, and therefore the submarine pipeline risk precaution measures can be strengthened according to the risk evaluation result.
To sum up, the application comprises the following beneficial technical effects: analyzing and judging the target state of the submarine pipeline according to the target detection data, further setting a target safety level corresponding to the submarine pipeline according to the risk influence degree of the target state on the submarine pipeline, further acquiring a corresponding target analysis level from the target safety level, further judging according to the target state at the target analysis level by combining corresponding analysis data, and acquiring comprehensive evaluation of the target safety level and the target evaluation result as a risk evaluation result, thereby further analyzing and evaluating the risk of the submarine pipeline and strengthening the submarine pipeline risk precaution.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic overall flow chart of a method for evaluating the risk of a submarine pipeline according to the present application.
Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of steps S201 to S204 in a submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to the present application.
Fig. 3 is a schematic flowchart of steps S301 to S303 in the method for evaluating a risk of a submarine pipeline according to the present application.
Fig. 4 is a schematic flowchart of steps S401 to S402 in the method for evaluating a risk of a submarine pipeline according to the present application.
Fig. 5 is a schematic flow chart of steps S501 to S503 in a submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to the present application.
Fig. 6 is a schematic flow chart of steps S601 to S604 in the submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to the present application.
Fig. 7 is a schematic flowchart of steps S701 to S703 in the method for evaluating a risk of a submarine pipeline according to the present application.
Fig. 8 is a schematic flow chart of steps S801 to S802 in the submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to the present application.
Fig. 9 is a schematic flow chart of steps S901 to S902 in a submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to the present application.
Fig. 10 is a schematic diagram of the overall module structure of a subsea pipeline risk assessment system according to the present application.
Description of the reference numerals:
1. an acquisition module; 2. an analysis module; 3. a judgment module; 4. and an evaluation module.
Detailed Description
The present application is described in further detail below with reference to figures 1-10.
The embodiment of the application discloses a submarine pipeline risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps with reference to fig. 1:
s101, acquiring detection information;
s102, acquiring target detection data according to the type of the detection information;
s103, analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state, and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state;
s104, judging the target safety level, acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level, and forming a target evaluation result;
and S105, acquiring a risk evaluation result according to the target security level and the target evaluation result.
In practical application of steps S101 to S102, the detection information refers to some environmental risk information affecting the safety of the submarine pipeline, and may be classified into submarine erosion detection information, submarine micro-topography detection information, and submarine geological detection information according to the type of the detection information, the sounding target detection data is obtained according to the submarine erosion detection information, the side-scan sonar detection data is obtained according to the submarine micro-topography detection information, and the shallow stratum profile target detection data is obtained according to the submarine geological detection information.
The system for detecting the submarine pipeline mainly comprises a multi-beam depth sounding system, a shallow-bottom profile system, a side-scan sonar system, a magnetometer detection system, an ROV carrying underwater camera detection system, a diving detection system and the like.
Step S103 is in practical application, because the functions of the instrument are limited, in order to mutually check each detection result, the terrain, the shallow profile and the side-scan sonar data need to be comprehensively analyzed during data processing, so that the position and the burying state of the submarine pipeline can be more accurately determined.
In addition, the multi-beam sounding technology can acquire water depth data of a surveyed sea area, and can analyze the seabed scouring and silting condition of the surveyed sea area through the sounding data for many years; the side-scan sonar data can identify submarine micro-landforms and submarine obstacles, and can analyze and survey the change trend of the submarine micro-landforms, the movement conditions of the obstacles and the like through years of detection data; the shallow stratum profile data can judge seabed sediment and understand and survey sea disaster geological phenomena and the like. By the comprehensive detection technology, the risk condition of the submarine pipeline can be further determined, and a technical basis and prevention and control measures are provided for pipeline maintenance. Judging the topography and geomorphologic state of the seabed according to the side scan sonar data, judging the burying state and the disaster geological state of the submarine pipeline according to the shallow stratum profile data, and further analyzing the influence of the submarine pipeline on the safety of the submarine pipeline according to the exposure condition, the topography and geomorphologic condition, the disaster geological condition and the submarine erosion and deposition stability factors of the submarine pipeline.
In the practical application of steps S104 to S105, when the safety of the submarine pipeline is comprehensively evaluated, the influence of various factors on the pipeline is cumulatively compared, and the safety levels of the pipelines in different sections are qualitatively analyzed, if a high risk factor exists in a certain section during comprehensive comparison, the safety level of the section of the pipeline can be determined to be low, and only when various safety influence factors are small, the safety level of the pipeline is high. And then judging a corresponding target analysis level from the obtained target security levels, and analyzing influence factors of all aspects related to the target analysis level to take the obtained target evaluation result and the target security level as corresponding risk evaluation results.
In the submarine pipeline risk assessment method, a target state where a submarine pipeline is located is analyzed and judged according to target detection data, a target safety level corresponding to the submarine pipeline is set according to a risk influence degree of the target state on the submarine pipeline, a corresponding target analysis level is obtained from the target safety levels by combining with the situation of high risk influence degree again, further judgment is carried out according to the target state at the target analysis level by combining with corresponding analysis data, a danger source with relatively high risk degree is obtained as a risk assessment result, further analysis assessment is carried out on the risk of the submarine pipeline, and submarine pipeline risk precaution measures are enhanced.
In one implementation of this embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the target detection data includes shallow profile data, the target condition includes a pipe burying condition, and step S103 includes the following steps:
s201, analyzing shallow stratum section data, and acquiring a pipeline burying state, wherein the pipeline burying state comprises a suspended state, a exposed state and a burying state;
s202, if the pipeline embedding state is a suspended state, the obtained target security level is a low level;
s203, if the pipeline embedding state is the exposure state, the obtained target safety level is a middle level;
and S204, if the pipeline burying state is the burying state, the obtained target safety level is a high level.
In this embodiment, the shallow profile data may be acquired by a shallow profiler, and by analyzing the shallow profile data, buried and exposed submarine pipelines may be detected, and the buried depth, exposed height, etc. of the submarine pipeline may be identified.
The shallow stratum profiler utilizes a multi-beam system to detect the submarine pipeline, the multi-beam system utilizes a directional orthogonal transmitting and receiving transducer array to obtain narrow beams distributed in a vertical course, and after a complete transmitting and receiving process, a series of narrow beam spots in the vertical course can be formed, so that a depth measuring profile in the straight course is obtained. The multi-beam sounding system not only can provide abundant topographic data, but also can provide reverse image information of a corresponding sound irradiation area. Through the processing and image mosaic of the reverse image data, the submarine sound image with the three-dimensional effect is output, and the accurate position and the exposure condition of the submarine pipeline are reflected. The multi-beam detection mode can seamlessly acquire the position information of the bare submarine pipeline, but because the multi-beam system identifies the submarine pipeline by measuring the fluctuation of the sea bottom surface, the technology can only identify the exposed and suspended pipelines and is ineffective for the completely buried submarine pipeline.
And further acquiring related data of the shallow stratum profile through a shallow stratum profile system, wherein the shallow stratum profile system vertically downwards transmits acoustic signals at certain time intervals, one part of the acoustic signals return to the transducer after pulse signals pass through the sea water to reach the seabed, the other part of the acoustic signals propagate to the deep stratum, and echoes continuously return until all acoustic energy is lost. The formation thickness measurement is to measure the time of the sound wave penetrating the formation, and assuming that Δ T represents the time difference between the upper and lower formations and c represents the sound velocity in the formation, the formation thickness is expressed as:
wc =1/2c Δ T, where c is the formation acoustic velocity (m/s); Δ T is the time(s) for the acoustic wave to travel back and forth through the formation twice; w is the thickness (m) of the formation, and the acoustic velocity in the formation varies with different sediments.
If the medium has larger density and sound velocity difference, the adjacent interfaces of the two layers generate stronger sound intensity, and an interface line of a section with stronger gray scale can be reflected on a shallow stratum profiler. The submarine pipeline is generally made of a rigid material, the density of the submarine pipeline is far greater than that of submarine sediments, and the submarine pipeline has large density difference and sound velocity difference, so that the submarine pipeline has obvious reflection characteristics on a profile image of a shallow stratum. The cross section of the submarine pipeline is circular, and the intersection point of a measuring line perpendicular to the pipeline and the pipeline can be approximately regarded as a diffraction point, so that the pipeline on the graph is presented in the form of a diffraction hyperbola.
The shallow stratum profile detection mode can detect buried and exposed submarine pipelines and can identify the buried depth, the exposed height and the like of the submarine pipelines, but the detection mode also has certain defects, for example, when the water depth is less than 3 meters, a shallow stratum profile system is greatly influenced by noise and is difficult to distinguish pipeline reflection curves; in the sand wave area, the submarine topography is also hyperbolic undulation, and shallow stratum sound waves cannot penetrate through a lower stratum in the sand wave area, so that the submarine pipeline burying state is difficult to distinguish and distinguish on an image; in addition, when the shallow stratum profiler detects the submarine pipeline, the survey line needs to be arranged perpendicular to the submarine pipeline, and a gap often exists between the survey line and the survey line, so that the buried state of the submarine pipeline cannot be obtained seamlessly. The influence of different occurrence states of the pipeline on the safety of the pipeline is divided into three grades: the safety level corresponding to the pipeline in the buried state is high, the safety level corresponding to the pipeline in the exposed state is low, and the occurrence state of the pipeline refers to the state condition of the pipeline and corresponds to the suspended state, the exposed state and the buried state.
For example, according to the results of the shallow stratum profile survey, for convenience of describing the embodiment, the location range of the submarine pipeline is further named, the buried pipeline comprises KP280.2-KP287.3, KP298.5-KP316.1 and KP 295.4-KP 297.5, the exposed pipeline comprises KP276.3-KP280.2 and KP287.3-KP295.4, and if the pipeline belongs to a general dangerous segment in the risk level, the corresponding target safety level is obtained as a medium level; KP297.5-KP298.5 in the exposure section is in a suspended state, the risk level is high, and if the pipeline belongs to a high-risk section, the corresponding target safety level is acquired as a low level, so that the risk prevention in the aspect of pipeline burying is improved. The pipe relative safety table is as follows.
301. analyzing the profile data of the shallow stratum to obtain disaster geological states, wherein the disaster geological states comprise a disaster geological state and a non-disaster geological state;
302. if the disaster geological state is the disaster geological state, the obtained target safety level is a low level;
303. and if the disaster geological state is the non-disaster geological state, the obtained target safety level is high.
In the embodiment, according to the shallow stratum profile measurement, geological disaster phenomena such as shallow gas, shallow faults, seabed landslides, sand ridges, sand waves, buried ancient riverways and the like which may exist in the seabed can be analyzed. The disaster geological phenomena in the research area mainly comprise shallow gas and sand waves.
For example, the shallow gas is shown on the section view of the shallow stratum (pipeline instrument) that sound waves cannot penetrate, reflected signals are shielded by a gas layer and are blank, the development range of the shallow gas is mainly located at KP291.3-KP292.2, and the buried depth of a gas cap is generally 3 meters-5 meters. Seabed sand waves are found on a shallow stratum section near KP280.5, the wave height is 0.2-0.5, a sea area pipeline is not exposed, but under the action of underflow and storm surge, the migration change of the sand waves can cause the phenomena of emptying and accumulation of sandy sediments near the pipeline, and the sandy sediments can impact the surface of the seabed pipeline along with the power of sea waves, so that the safety of the seabed pipeline is influenced to a certain extent.
According to the research, other obvious marine disaster geological phenomena are not found in the sea area, so that the influence of the disaster geological conditions on the safety of the submarine pipeline in the research sea area is small, the safety level of the pipeline in the research area is relatively high, the disaster geological state is a non-disaster geological state at the moment, the target safety level is further obtained to be high, and the geological risk of the submarine pipeline can be evaluated.
In one embodiment of this embodiment, as shown in fig. 4, the target detection data includes side scan sonar data, the target state includes a topographic state, and step S103 includes the following steps:
s401, analyzing side-scan sonar data to obtain a landform state;
s402, judging the landform state, and acquiring the corresponding target safety level.
In this embodiment, the side scan sonar system is used for acquiring side scan sonar related data, the side scan sonar system transmits a series of sound wave signals to the lateral lower part through the transmitting transducer, the receiving transducer receives the signals, the sound energy is converted into electric energy, and the electric energy is transmitted into the display unit through the cable and then is converted into images. The difference of the image gray scale is caused by the difference of the sound energy reflected to the receiving transducer from the sea bottom surface, and the difference of the sea bottom surface is inverted. When the sound wave pulse hits the protruding object, shadow appears because the sound wave can not reach the rear of the target object, forming obvious visual effect. Like a multi-wave-velocity system, a side-scan sonar system can seamlessly acquire the position information of bare submarine pipelines, but cannot detect the submarine pipelines in a buried state.
The evolving submarine landform morphology depends on local geological background and geological characteristics and is influenced by overlying water dynamics factors. The dynamic conditions of the underwater environment are very important factors for modifying the topography of the seabed, because the seabed can generate processes of erosion, transportation, deposition and the like of sediments under the action of the hydrodynamic conditions.
According to the analysis of the shallow stratum profile data, the landform state of the submarine pipeline is obtained, the influence degree of different landform states on the submarine pipeline is different accordingly, and the change of the landform state can seriously influence the safety of the submarine pipeline. For example, seabed pipeline is affected to different degrees by seabed slope collapse, bottom shape accumulation and migration, seabed erosion and other conditions, and then the corresponding target safety level is obtained through analysis and judgment according to the actual state of the landform.
Analysis of the shallow profile data shows that the sea floor is generally smooth and flat. Obvious submarine topography includes erosion potholes, submarine scours, fishing nets, sand waves and other micro-topography.
The soft seabed sediment can form micro landforms such as erosion potholes and the like under the action of strong tide, and a large-area erosion area can be formed in an area where the erosion potholes are widely developed. Different target safety levels are evaluated according to different landform state conditions, and the accuracy of the pipeline risk assessment can be further improved.
In one implementation manner of this embodiment, as shown in fig. 5, the topographic state includes a topographic gradient, and determining the topographic state, and acquiring the corresponding target security level includes the following steps:
s501, judging whether the terrain gradient meets a preset gradient rule or not;
s502, if the terrain gradient meets a preset gradient rule, the obtained target safety level is high;
and S503, if the terrain gradient does not meet the preset gradient rule, the obtained target safety level is a low level.
In the embodiment, the slope of the sea-bottom terrain in the sea area is relatively gentle by judging the state of the landform, and the sea-bottom terrain is not provided with a severe fluctuation area and generally inclines towards the southeast direction. The terrain is firstly lifted to 9.8 meters from 8 meters to southeast from northwest, then is gradually deepened to 27.1 meters, and can be obtained according to the gradient change trend of the submarine terrain: KP316-KP287.4, water depth 8-16.3 meters, flat submarine topography, average slope of 0.02 degree; KP287.4-KP276, water depth 16.3-27.1 m, gradient slightly steepening, average gradient 0.05 deg. The submarine topography and the pipeline safety have a corresponding relation, and the lower the gradient is, the higher the pipeline safety grade is relatively; the steeper the gradient, the lower the safety level is relatively, and according to the analysis result, the sea area gradient is overall gentle. The preset gradient rule comprises a gradient threshold value of 0.1 degrees, the submarine gradient is smaller than 0.1 degrees, the safety grade of the submarine gradient is high, and the submarine gradient is smaller than the gradient threshold value through analysis, so that the obtained pipeline target safety grade is high, as shown in the following.
In one implementation of this embodiment, as shown in fig. 6, the topographic state includes a erosion-deposition state, and determining the topographic state to obtain the corresponding target safety level includes the following steps:
s601, the erosion and deposition state comprises an erosion state, a basic balance state and a deposition state;
s602, if the erosion and deposition state is the erosion state, the obtained target safety level is a low level;
s603, if the erosion and deposition state is a basic balance state, the obtained target safety level is a middle level;
and S604, if the erosion and deposition state is the deposition state, the acquired target safety level is high.
In the embodiment, the following characteristics are specifically shown in combination that the total erosion and deposition change amplitude is small, the submarine topography is basically stable, and erosion and deposition occur locally in the sea area in recent years: in the sea area between KP320-KP310, the general silting trend is long-term, the largest silting thickness is about 2 meters, and the average annual silting thickness is about 5 centimeters; in the sea area between KP310-KP300, the terrain change is small, and the erosion and deposition are basically balanced; in the sea area between KP300-KP287, the sea floor topography is overall in the scouring situation, the scouring amplitude is 0-1.5 cm, the average maximum annual scouring amplitude is about 3 cm, and within about 9 years from 2005 to 2014, the scouring in the sea area is obvious, the maximum scouring amplitude reaches 1 m and even exceeds the former level, because under the condition that the sea floor scouring state is balanced for a long time, the marine hydrodynamic condition nearby can be greatly changed.
In the sea area between KP287-KP276, the submarine topography is in a micro-scouring situation since the last 60 th century, but the variation range is small, the water depth profiles of different ages are approximately overlapped, and the scouring range is small. Thus, the research sea area can be divided into three safety levels based on the erosion and deposition analysis. The pipeline is exposed or even suspended in the scouring area, so that the pipeline safety is seriously influenced, the risk is high, and the obtained target safety level is low; the seabed of the micro erosion area and the seabed of the erosion and deposition balance area are stable, and the target safety grade is obtained to be a medium grade in the risk grade; the risk of the siltation area is lowest, and the target safety level is high, as shown below.
s701, judging whether the area of the obstacle pollutant meets a preset pollution rule or not;
s702, if the area of the obstacle pollutant meets a preset pollution rule, the obtained target safety level is high;
and S703, if the area of the obstacle pollutant does not meet the preset pollution rule, the obtained target safety level is a low level.
In this embodiment, the barrier contaminant may accelerate erosion and damage to the subsea pipeline to a certain extent, the barrier contaminant is generally contaminated, chemicals generated from the barrier contaminant and seawater may accelerate corrosion of the surface of the subsea pipeline, and some high-quality barriers may move along with the ocean wave force and collide with the subsea pipeline, causing pipeline damage, for example, a sunken ship sinks on the pipeline or is close to the pipeline, and once the barrier contaminant is displaced, the pipeline safety may be damaged. The area of the obstacle pollutant is judged through the preset pollution threshold, the general safety risk to the submarine pipeline exceeding the specified preset pollution threshold is large, so the corresponding target safety level is low, and the general safety risk to the submarine pipeline smaller than the specified preset pollution threshold is small, so the corresponding target safety level is high.
For example, fishing nets are distributed in sea areas between KPs 301.6-KP306 and arranged in a strip shape, so that the influence of the fishing nets on the submarine pipelines is not great, but the safety of the submarine pipelines can be influenced when the pipelines are in a suspended state under the action of the fishing nets. The submarine is observed to have fishing gear contacting the seabed such as trawl net and trawl net on the sonar image picture, the area of these fishing gear is greater than and predetermines the pollution threshold value, secondly, because these fishing gear pierce the seabed 20-200 centimetres depth and vary, can drive the submarine pipeline under the dragging of sea wave power and make it be in the unsettled state, cause great threat. The preset pollution rule comprises a threshold value of the pollutant for penetrating into the seabed, the threshold value of the pollutant for penetrating into the seabed is 20 cm, and the fishing gear is analyzed and judged to have penetrated into the seabed by 58 cm, so that the obtained target safety level is low, and accurate risk assessment can be made on the condition of the obstacle pollutants around the pipeline according to the corresponding target safety level.
In one implementation of this embodiment, as shown in fig. 8, step S104 includes the following steps:
s801, judging whether the target safety level is a low level;
s802, if the target security level is a low level, acquiring a target state with the low level as a target analysis item, and analyzing the target analysis item to form a target evaluation result.
In the embodiment, the pipeline burying state, the disaster geological state and the terrain and landform state are all important for risk assessment of the submarine pipeline and are not negligible, especially, analysis on a target state with a low target safety level and a highest risk degree is especially important, so that the target state with the low target safety level is used as a target analysis item, further analysis is performed on the target analysis item, specific risk factors are obtained from the target analysis item, and a final target assessment result is formed.
For example, in the pipeline range of KP291.3-KP292.2, a disaster geological state is evaluated and analyzed, and then the target safety level is obtained to be a low level, then the disaster geological state is used as a target analysis item, and further disaster geological data such as shallow gas, shallow faults, seabed landslides, sand ridges, sand waves, buried ancient riverways and the like are obtained according to the disaster geological state, and the plurality of disaster geological data are further analyzed to obtain a final target evaluation result, so that more standard precautionary measures can be further taken for risks existing in the pipeline.
In one implementation of this embodiment, as shown in fig. 9, analyzing the target analysis item to form the target evaluation result includes the following steps:
s901, acquiring target analysis data according to the target analysis items;
and S902, analyzing the target analysis data, and acquiring corresponding risk degree to form a target evaluation result.
In this embodiment, target analysis data is analyzed item by item, and a specific hazard source causing a pipeline risk is obtained. For example, disaster geological data such as shallow gas, shallow faults, seabed landslides, sand ridges, sand waves and buried ancient riverways are acquired according to disaster geological states, the maximum risk degree of the sand waves on submarine pipelines is obtained through analysis, and corresponding target evaluation results are acquired according to the actual risk degree of the sand waves.
The seabed sand wave is a common approximately regular fluctuating landform shape on the offshore seabed surface with obvious hydrodynamic action such as wave, tide and ocean current in the land frame sea area. The sand waves have various forms and scales, the characteristic wave height of the sand waves is generally several meters, the height can reach dozens of meters, the characteristic wavelength is several meters, and the maximum wavelength can reach thousands of meters. For the submarine pipeline in service period, moving sand waves can cause the submarine pipeline to be suspended or buried, and can cause fatigue damage and even breakage of the pipeline in serious conditions, so that the pipeline faces the threat of failure.
For example, through analyzing sand wave data in the pipeline range of KP291.3-KP292.2, the factors such as water depth, sediment particles and flow rate, etc. have close relation with the formation of seabed sand waves and the characteristic scale thereof, the sand waves generally develop at the bottom flow rate of 0.2-1.0 m/s, and the corresponding risk degree is low risk; when the bottom flow velocity is 0.4-0.8 m/s, the underwater sand wave is developed most sufficiently, and the corresponding risk degree is general risk; when the bottom flow velocity exceeds 1 m/s, the sand wave scale is increased along with the flow velocity, further destructive influence is caused on the submarine pipeline, and the corresponding risk degree is a greater risk. The analyzed sand wave bottom flow velocity is 1.8 m/s, the risk degree of the sand wave at the moment is a larger risk, and a target evaluation result is formed according to the sand wave, the sand wave bottom flow velocity 1.8 and the larger risk, so that the risk degree corresponding to a specific hazard source is judged according to target analysis data, then comprehensive evaluation is carried out on the risk degree, and more detailed risk evaluation can be further carried out on the existing potential risk on the basis of basic safety level judgment.
Step S105, in this embodiment, comprehensively analyzes each target evaluation result to obtain a corresponding risk degree evaluation result, and then comprehensively analyzes the target security level corresponding to the target state to finally generate a corresponding comprehensive risk evaluation result.
For example, by comprehensive analysis comparison, the following evaluation results were obtained: the K0-K10 sea area has gentle topography, no geological disasters, no barrier pollutants, good burying state, total deposition situation on the seabed, large deposition amplitude and high pipeline safety level; the K10-K19 sea area has gentle topography, no geological disasters, no barrier pollutants and good burying state, but the seabed presents a scouring and silting balance situation, and the pipeline safety level is a medium level; the K19-K33 sea area has gentle topography, except for the local part with the fishing net, no other obstacles are found, but the sea area erodes the depression and has landform development and overall scouring behavior, the local sea area pipeline is critically suspended, and the pipeline safety level is low; the K33-K44 sea area has smooth terrain, no geological disasters, no barrier pollutants and good burying state, but the sea area is in a micro-scouring-silting balance state, and the pipeline safety level is a medium level, as shown below.
The development of the eroded depression landform is not only dependent on local geological background and geological characteristics, but also strongly influenced by dynamic factors of overlying water, and the dynamic condition of an underwater environment is a very important factor for improving the submarine landform, because under the action of hydrodynamic conditions, the submarine can generate the processes of erosion, transportation, deposition and the like of sediments. The evolution process of these submarine geomorphologic forms has a major impact on pipeline stability, and the main deposition processes and geomorphologic features that cause submarine geomorphologic changes and thus form potential hazards to pipeline stability can be grouped into three categories: slope collapse, bottom build-up and migration, and seafloor erosion.
Through analysis of the landform data of the eroded pits, a large number of gravel sediments are formed near the K19-K33 sea area pipelines due to slope collapse, the gravel sediments may impact the submarine pipelines due to submarine landslide, a large risk degree exists, a target evaluation result of the large risk degree of slope collapse is obtained, and a risk evaluation result of comprehensive evaluation is formed for a low level by further combining a corresponding target safety level.
The embodiment of the application further discloses a submarine pipeline risk assessment system, and referring to fig. 10, the submarine pipeline risk assessment system comprises an acquisition module 1, an analysis module 2, a judgment module 3 and an assessment module 4, wherein the acquisition module 1 is used for acquiring detection information and also used for acquiring target detection data according to the type of the detection information; the analysis module 2 is used for analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state; the judging module 3 is used for judging the target security level, acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level and forming a target evaluation result; and the evaluation module 4 is used for acquiring a risk evaluation result according to the target security level and the target evaluation result.
In the submarine pipeline risk assessment system, an acquisition module transmits acquired target detection data to an analysis module according to the type of detection information, the analysis module analyzes and judges the target state of a submarine pipeline according to the target detection data, then sets a corresponding target safety level for the submarine pipeline according to the target state, the analysis module transmits the target safety level to a judgment module, the judgment module acquires the corresponding target analysis level from the target safety level, further judges according to the target state at the target analysis level by combining the corresponding analysis data to acquire a corresponding target assessment result, the judgment module transmits the target assessment result and the target safety level to an assessment module, the assessment module comprehensively analyzes the risk of the submarine pipeline according to the target assessment result and the target safety level to acquire the corresponding risk assessment result, and therefore submarine pipeline risk precautionary measures can be strengthened according to the risk assessment result.
The above are preferred embodiments of the present application, and the scope of protection of the present application is not limited thereto, so: equivalent changes in structure, shape and principle of the present application shall be covered by the protection scope of the present application.
Claims (10)
1. A submarine pipeline risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring detection information;
acquiring target detection data according to the detection information type;
analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state, and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state;
judging the target safety level, and acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level to form a target evaluation result;
and acquiring a risk evaluation result according to the target security level and the target evaluation result.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the target detection data comprises shallow profile data, the target status comprises a pipeline burying status, and analyzing the target detection data to obtain a corresponding target status, and obtaining a corresponding target safety level according to the target status comprises:
analyzing the shallow stratum profile data to obtain a pipeline burying state, wherein the pipeline burying state comprises a suspended state, a exposed state and a buried state;
if the pipeline burying state is the suspended state, the obtained target security level is a low level;
if the pipeline burying state is the exposure state, the obtained target safety level is a middle level;
and if the pipeline burying state is the burying state, the obtained target safety level is a high level.
3. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 2, wherein the target state comprises a disaster geological state, and the analyzing the target detection data, obtaining a corresponding target state, and obtaining a corresponding target safety level according to the target state comprises the following steps:
analyzing the shallow stratum profile data to obtain disaster geological states, wherein the disaster geological states comprise disaster geological states and disaster-free geological states;
if the disaster geological state is the disaster geological state, the acquired target safety level is a low level;
and if the disaster geological state is the non-disaster geological state, the obtained target safety level is high.
4. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the target detection data includes side-scan sonar data, the target state includes a topographical state, and analyzing the target detection data to obtain a corresponding target state, and obtaining a corresponding target security level according to the target state further comprises the steps of:
analyzing the side-scan sonar data to acquire a landform state;
and judging the landform state and obtaining a corresponding target safety level.
5. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 4, wherein the topographic state comprises a topographic grade, and the step of judging the topographic state and obtaining the corresponding target safety level comprises the steps of:
judging whether the terrain gradient meets a preset gradient rule or not;
if the terrain gradient meets the preset gradient rule, the obtained target safety level is high;
and if the terrain gradient does not meet the preset gradient rule, the obtained target safety level is a low level.
6. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 4, wherein the topographic state comprises a silt flushing state, and the judging the topographic state and acquiring the corresponding target safety level comprise the following steps:
the scouring and silting states comprise a scouring state, a basic balance state and a silting state;
if the erosion and deposition state is the erosion state, the obtained target safety level is a low level;
if the erosion and deposition state is the basic balance state, the obtained target safety level is a middle level;
and if the erosion and deposition state is the deposition state, the obtained target safety level is high.
7. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 4, wherein the topographic state comprises an obstacle pollutant area, and the step of judging the topographic state and acquiring a corresponding target safety level comprises the following steps:
judging whether the area of the barrier pollutants meets a preset pollution rule or not;
if the area of the obstacle pollutant meets the preset pollution rule, the obtained target safety level is a high level;
and if the area of the obstacle pollutant does not meet the preset pollution rule, the obtained target safety level is a low level.
8. The submarine pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein said judging the target safety level, obtaining and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level, and forming a target assessment result comprises the steps of:
judging whether the target security level is a low level;
and if the target security level is a low level, acquiring the target state with the low level as a target analysis item, and analyzing the target analysis item to form a target evaluation result.
9. The subsea pipeline risk assessment method according to claim 8, wherein said analyzing said target analysis term to form a target assessment result comprises the steps of:
acquiring target analysis data according to the target analysis item;
and analyzing the target analysis data, and acquiring corresponding risk degrees to form a target evaluation result.
10. A subsea pipeline risk assessment system, comprising:
the device comprises an acquisition module (1) and a detection module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring detection information and acquiring target detection data according to the type of the detection information;
the analysis module (2) is used for analyzing the target detection data, acquiring a corresponding target state and acquiring a corresponding target security level according to the target state;
the judging module (3) is used for judging the target security level, acquiring and analyzing a corresponding target analysis level and forming a target evaluation result;
and the evaluation module (4) is used for acquiring a risk evaluation result according to the target security level and the target evaluation result.
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