CN114782001A - Power grid infrastructure project optimization method and system based on life cycle cost - Google Patents
Power grid infrastructure project optimization method and system based on life cycle cost Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A power grid infrastructure project optimization method based on life cycle cost comprises the following steps: setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target; acquiring a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, wherein each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of a power grid infrastructure project in a whole life cycle; respectively converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost; respectively carrying out comprehensive analysis on each life cycle cost and corresponding economic data and technical data; and identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results so as to construct the power grid infrastructure project. The design not only ensures that the priority construction scheme is more accurate and reasonable to provide for the power grid infrastructure project, but also ensures that the method has simplicity, reliability and practicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid planning, in particular to a power grid infrastructure project optimization method and system based on life cycle cost.
Background
The life cycle generally refers to the whole life stage from design to scrapping of a certain item or product, the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) generally refers to the total cost of the item or product in the life cycle, and the LCC model generally refers to a mathematical model for estimating the life cycle cost.
The electric power project is the basis of the processes of power grid planning, construction, development and the like, has the attribute of being influenced by various factors such as cost, economy, technology, environment and the like for a long time in the future, and has great complexity and difficulty in providing a relatively optimized construction scheme for the electric power project. Generally, the construction plan only needs to consider the necessity and feasibility of the electric power project, but the shortage of the construction plan deviation is caused by considering the life cycle cost required by the electric power project to adopt the construction plan and the relationship between the life cycle cost and the economy or/and technology.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects and problems of poor accuracy and low rationality in the prior art, and provides a power grid infrastructure project optimization method and system based on the life cycle cost, which have the advantages of good accuracy and high rationality.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical solution of the invention is as follows: a power grid infrastructure project optimization method based on life cycle cost comprises the following steps:
s1, setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target;
s2, acquiring a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, wherein each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project in the whole life cycle;
s3, converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost;
s4, comprehensively analyzing each life cycle cost and the corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results; the sample analysis result is used for representing the degree of the economic or/and technical influence on the total life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and S5, identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results, so as to construct a power grid infrastructure project.
In step S1, the construction target includes at least one of a voltage class, a number of main transformers, a capacity of the main transformers, a number of GISs, a GIS deployment mode, a transmission distance, a transmission area, and a line type of a power grid infrastructure project;
firstly, generating an equipment list and an occupation planning drawing by using a construction target, then generating a three-dimensional model of a power grid infrastructure project by using the equipment list and the occupation planning drawing, and then generating a plurality of alternative construction schemes by combining the equipment list, the occupation planning drawing and the three-dimensional model.
Step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
s41, respectively describing economic data and technical data corresponding to each life cycle cost through various probability distribution functions;
s42, carrying out sensitivity analysis on each full life cycle cost and corresponding different probability distribution functions describing economic data and technical data through a preset Monte Carlo model to obtain corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity, wherein the economic sensitivity is used for expressing the degree of economic influence on the full life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme, and the technical sensitivity is used for expressing the degree of technical influence on the full life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and S43, combining the cost of each full life cycle and the corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity to form a corresponding sample analysis result.
In step S41, the plurality of probability distribution functions include a discrete uniform distribution function for describing economic data and a normal distribution function for describing technical data.
Step S5 specifically includes the following steps:
s51, classifying and sequencing the multiple sample analysis results to obtain an economic index sequence, a technical index sequence and a cost index sequence, wherein each sample analysis result comprises an economic sensitivity, a technical sensitivity and a life cycle cost which are consistent with the corresponding alternative construction scheme, the economic index sequence comprises multiple economic sensitivities which are in one-to-one correspondence with the multiple alternative construction schemes, the technical index sequence comprises multiple technical sensitivities which are in one-to-one correspondence with the multiple alternative construction schemes, and the cost index sequence comprises life cycle costs which are in one-to-one correspondence with the multiple alternative construction schemes;
s52, identifying the economic sensitivity with the minimum value in the economic indicator sequence, and identifying the technical sensitivity with the minimum value in the technical indicator sequence;
s53, performing identity verification on the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity according to the construction scheme decision rule;
s54, when the verification is successful, setting an alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme; when the verification fails, respectively searching the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity in the life cycle cost;
s55, comparing the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity with the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity to obtain a cost comparison result;
and S56, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity or the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme according to the cost comparison result.
In step S53, when it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is the same as the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification is successful;
and when the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is different from the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity through the verification of the construction scheme decision rule, determining that the verification fails.
In step S56, when the result of the cost comparison indicates that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting any one of the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction plan;
when the cost comparison result shows that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity as a priority construction scheme;
and when the cost comparison result shows that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity as a priority construction scheme.
In step S5, the construction plan decision rule includes that the construction plan adopted by the power grid infrastructure project under the condition that the cost of meeting the life cycle is minimized by economic influence is the same as the construction plan adopted under the condition that the cost of meeting the life cycle is minimized by technical influence.
A system for optimizing a power grid infrastructure project based on life cycle cost comprises:
the data input module is used for inputting construction scheme decision rules and construction targets which are consistent with the power grid infrastructure projects;
the scheme generation module is used for setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target;
the data input module is also used for inputting a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, and each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project in the whole life cycle;
the LCC measuring and calculating module is used for converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost;
the comprehensive analysis module is used for comprehensively analyzing each full-life cycle cost and the corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results, wherein the sample analysis results are used for expressing the degree of influence of economy or/and technology on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and the scheme decision module is used for identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results so as to construct the power grid infrastructure project.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
in the method and the system for optimizing the power grid infrastructure project based on the full life cycle cost, the construction target and the sample data set are used as input conditions, the sample analysis result is analyzed through the data processing method, the multiple sample analysis results have the degree attribute of reflecting the influence of economy or/and technology on the full life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting multiple alternative construction schemes, namely, the purpose of screening the multiple alternative construction schemes is achieved by considering the relation mode that the full life cycle cost is influenced by the economy or/and the technology, so that the priority construction scheme is ensured to be more accurate and reasonable to be provided for the power grid infrastructure project, and the method has simplicity, reliability and practicability.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a preferred method of the present invention for a full life cycle cost based grid infrastructure project.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a preferred system of a power grid infrastructure project based on life cycle cost.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and the detailed description of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for optimizing a power grid infrastructure project based on life cycle cost includes the following steps:
s1, setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target;
the construction target comprises at least one of voltage grade, main transformer quantity, main transformer capacity, GIS quantity, GIS deployment mode, transmission distance, transmission area and line type of a power grid infrastructure project;
firstly, generating an equipment list and an occupation planning drawing by using a construction target, then generating a three-dimensional model of a power grid infrastructure project by using the equipment list and the occupation planning drawing, and then generating a plurality of alternative construction schemes by combining the equipment list, the occupation planning drawing and the three-dimensional model.
S2, obtaining a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, wherein each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of a power grid infrastructure project in the whole life cycle;
the cost data may include at least one of initial investment data, operation and maintenance cost data, overhaul cost data, and fault cost data of the grid infrastructure project, the initial investment data may include acquisition costs, installation and commissioning costs, and other costs, the operation and maintenance cost data may include energy and maintenance costs per year, the overhaul cost data may include correction maintenance frequency, prevention maintenance frequency, single correction maintenance costs, and single prevention maintenance costs per year, and the fault cost data may include outage time, load rate, and accident rate per year.
The economic data may include at least one of an annual rate and a inflation rate, wherein the annual rate may assume 7% and the inflation rate may assume 3%.
The technical data may include at least one of a line model and a wiring area, wherein the line model may be referenced to the LGJ-400/35 aluminum alloy core aluminum stranded wire and the line operational area may be referenced to the line operational area.
S3, converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost;
the power grid infrastructure project may be, but is not limited to, a substation, and the preset LCC model may be expressed as:
LCC＝ACI+ACO+ACM+ACF+ACD
wherein, LCC represents the whole life cycle cost of the power grid infrastructure project adopting the alternative construction scheme, ACIRepresenting the annual initial investment cost, ACORepresenting annual costs of operation and maintenance, ACMIndicating annual costs of maintenance, ACFIndicating annual costs of failure, ACDIndicating an annual cost of scrap.
Initial investment equal annual fee ACICan be expressed as:
ACI＝PCI×CRF(γ，T)
FCI＝CI1+CI2+CI3
wherein, PCIRepresenting the present value of the initial investment, FCIDenotes the initial end-of-investment value, CI1Indicating purchase charge, CI2Indicating installation and commissioning costs, CI3Representing other costs, CRF (γ, T) represents the annual fund present value coefficient, γ represents the social discount rate, and T represents the life cycle.
Purchase charge CI1Can include equipment cost, professional tool and initial spare part cost, supplier freight cost, installation and debugging cost CI2May include owner transportation fees, equipment construction and installation fees, commissioning fees before commissioning of the equipment, and other fees CI3The social discount rate gamma can be 8%, and the life cycle T can be 40 years.
Annual fee A for operation and maintenanceCOCan be expressed as:
ACO＝PCO×CRF(γ，T)
wherein, PCORepresenting the operation and maintenance cost, COiRepresents the final value of the operation and maintenance cost of the ith year,
the energy consumption of the representation is shown,
i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to T.
Energy consumption
Can be a fixed value and maintenance fee
Can be expressed as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the loss of the body is shown, and the loss,
indicate assist penalty, assist penalty
May be a fixed value, Δ PmaxRepresents the power loss at maximum load, tmaxRepresenting maximum load loss time, eta representing operating main power, M representing average transmission and distribution price, PmaxIndicating maximum loadActive power of time, QmaxThe reactive power at maximum load is shown, R represents the resistance, U represents the rated voltage,
representing the power factor.
Annual cost of overhaul ACMCan be expressed as:
ACM＝PCM×CRF(γ，T)
CMi＝xi×p1+yi×p2
wherein, PCMIndicating the present value of the overhaul fee, CMiRepresents the i-th year service charge terminal value, xiIndicates the corrected maintenance frequency of the year i, piIndicating a single correction maintenance fee, yiIndicating the frequency of preventive maintenance of year i, p2Indicating a single preventive maintenance charge.
Annual fee for failure ACFCan be expressed as:
ACF＝PCF×CRF(γ，T)
wherein, PCFIndicating a fault charge value, CFiIndicating the i-th year fault charge terminal value, S the maximum distribution and transformation capacity, KdRepresenting the conversion factor of electricity price, tiIndicating the power off time of the accident in the ith year,. phiiIndicates the load rate of the i-th year, PkWhich represents the load loss of the ith year,
representing powerFactor epsiloniIndicating the annual accident rate, and mu the troubleshooting rate.
Annual fee A of scrappingCDCan be expressed as: a. theCD＝α×ACIWhere α represents a rate of the discarded charges, for example, the rate of discarded charges α may be 5%.
For initial investment equal annual fee ACIAnnual fee A for operation and maintenanceCOAnnual expense A for maintenance and the likeCMAnnual fee A for failureCFAnd annual fee A of scrappingCDThe measuring and calculating mode can take the simplicity, the accuracy and the practicability of the subentry measuring and calculating into consideration.
S4, comprehensively analyzing each life cycle cost and the corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results; the sample analysis result is used for representing the degree of influence of economy or/and technology on the whole life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s41, respectively describing economic data and technical data corresponding to each life cycle cost through various probability distribution functions;
the plurality of probability distribution functions comprise a discrete uniform distribution function for describing economic data and a normal distribution function for describing technical data; under the action of different various probability distribution functions, the accuracy of differential sensitivity analysis is improved;
s42, carrying out sensitivity analysis on each full-life cycle cost and corresponding different probability distribution functions describing economic data and technical data through a preset Monte Carlo model to obtain corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity, wherein the economic sensitivity is used for expressing the degree of economic influence on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme, and the technical sensitivity is used for expressing the degree of technical influence on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and S43, combining the cost of each full life cycle and the corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity to form a corresponding sample analysis result.
The sample analysis results may take the form of probability distribution plots that include technical and economic sensitivities, or the sample analysis results may take the form of arrays.
And storing the corresponding life cycle cost, economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity together in a form of a table or a folder to form a corresponding sample analysis result.
Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the cost data, the technical data and the economic data by combining a probability distribution function and a Monte Carlo model, and the accuracy and the reliability of the data sensitivity analysis are improved.
When the annual interest rate is described by adopting the discrete uniform distribution function, the annual interest rate can be changed between 5% and 9% by taking 7% as the center, or when the annual interest rate is described by adopting the discrete uniform distribution function, the annual interest rate can be changed between 1% and 5% by taking 3% as the center.
When the normal distribution function is used for describing the line model, the average value can be 1, and the standard deviation can be 0.1, or when the normal distribution function is used for describing the line model, the average value can be 1, and the standard deviation can be 0.2.
S5, identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results, so as to construct a power grid infrastructure project; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s51, classifying and sequencing the multiple sample analysis results to obtain an economic indicator sequence, a technical indicator sequence and a cost indicator sequence, wherein each sample analysis result comprises economic sensitivity, technical sensitivity and life cycle cost which are consistent with the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
for 10 sample analysis results, performing descending order on 10 economic sensitivities, performing descending order on 10 technical sensitivities, and performing descending order on 10 full life cycle costs; or, for 5 sample analysis results, 5 economic sensitivities are sorted in an ascending order, 10 technical sensitivities are sorted in an ascending order, and 10 full life cycle costs are sorted in an ascending order;
the economic indicator sequence, the technical indicator sequence and the cost indicator sequence may adopt the same expression mode, for example, 5 cost indicator sequences may be expressed as [422 ten thousand, 578 ten thousand, 619 ten thousand, 546 thousand, 589 ten thousand ];
s52, identifying the economic sensitivity with the minimum value in the economic indicator sequence, and identifying the technical sensitivity with the minimum value in the technical indicator sequence;
by means of the sequence, the economic sensitivity with the minimum value is identified from the economic sensitivities, and the technical sensitivity with the minimum value is identified from the technical sensitivities, so that simplicity is realized, and the data identification efficiency is guaranteed;
s53, performing identity verification on the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity according to the construction scheme decision rule;
when the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is verified to be the same as the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity through the construction scheme decision rule, the verification is determined to be successful;
when the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is different from the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity through the construction scheme decision rule, determining that the verification fails;
under the constraint of the construction scheme decision rule, the alternative construction schemes are the same as the judgment condition of successful verification, so that the situation that the alternative construction schemes are the same as the judgment condition of the successful verification is avoided, and the situation that the alternative construction schemes are different from each other as the judgment condition of the failed verification is avoided, so that the situation that the alternative schemes are different from each other as the judgment condition of the successful verification is avoided, and thus, the accuracy of the verified construction scheme is ensured;
s54, when the verification is successful, setting an alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme; when the verification fails, respectively searching the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity in the life cycle cost;
s55, comparing the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity with the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity to obtain a cost comparison result;
s56, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity or the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme according to the cost comparison result;
when the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting any one of the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme;
when the cost comparison result shows that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity as a priority construction scheme;
and when the cost comparison result shows that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity as a priority construction scheme.
The cost comparison result can be expressed as any one of 0, -1 and 1, wherein 0 represents that the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, and-1 represents that the cost comparison result is that the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, and 1 represents that the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, and reflects the magnitude relation between the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, so that the cost comparison result is used as a condition for identifying the preferred construction scheme, and has simplicity, accuracy and reliability.
The construction scheme decision rule comprises that the construction scheme adopted by the power grid infrastructure project under the condition that the life cycle cost is minimized is the same as the construction scheme adopted under the condition that the life cycle cost is minimized by the technology. Under the constraint of the construction scheme decision rule, the whole life cycle cost for seeking the construction scheme is minimized by economic factors and technical factors, so that the accuracy and the reasonability of identifying the construction scheme are improved.
Under the constraint of the construction scheme decision rule, the successful construction scheme verification is directly used as a trigger condition for setting the optimal construction scheme, so that the optimal construction scheme is not identified by using the full life cycle cost, the flow for identifying the optimal construction scheme is saved, and the identification efficiency is improved.
Under the constraint of the construction scheme decision rule, the success of the construction scheme verification, the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are combined to be used as the condition for identifying the prior construction scheme, and the identification accuracy is improved.
Referring to fig. 2, a life cycle cost-based power grid infrastructure project optimization system includes:
the data input module is used for inputting construction scheme decision rules and construction targets which are consistent with the power grid infrastructure project;
the scheme generation module is used for setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target;
the data input module is also used for inputting a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, and each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project in the whole life cycle;
the LCC measuring and calculating module is used for converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost;
the comprehensive analysis module is used for comprehensively analyzing each full-life cycle cost and the corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results, wherein the sample analysis results are used for expressing the degree of the economic or/and technical influence on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and the scheme decision module is used for identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results so as to construct the power grid infrastructure project.
A power grid infrastructure project optimization device based on life cycle cost may refer to the detailed description of a power grid infrastructure project optimization method based on life cycle cost and beneficial effects, which are not described herein again.
A computing device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to realize the power grid infrastructure project optimization method based on the life cycle cost. It is understood that the computing device of the present invention may be a server or a terminal power transformation device, wherein the processor may be connected to the memory via a universal serial bus.
A non-transitory computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the above-described full life cycle cost based grid infrastructure project optimization method.
In general, the computer instructions to implement the methods of the present invention may be carried on any combination of one or more computer-readable storage media. Non-transitory computer readable storage media may include any computer readable medium except for the signal itself, which is temporarily propagating.
A computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer readable storage medium would include the following: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAn), a read-only memory (ROn), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EKROn or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROn), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. In the context of this document, a computer readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that can contain, or store a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
Computer program code for carrying out operations for aspects of the present invention may be written in one or more programming languages, including an object oriented programming language such as Java, Snalltalk, C + +, or a combination thereof, as well as conventional procedural programming languages, such as the "C" language or similar programming languages, and in particular, Kython languages suitable for neural network computing and tensrflow, KyTorch, etc. based platform frameworks may be used. The program code may execute entirely on the user's computer, partly on the user's computer, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the user's computer and partly on a remote computer or entirely on the remote computer or server. In the latter scenario, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any number of types of network, including a Local Area Network (LAN) or a Wide Area Network (WAN), or the connection may be made to an external computer (for example, through the Internet using an Internet service provider).
For the above-mentioned computing device and non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, reference may be made to the detailed description of the preferred method and beneficial effects of the power grid infrastructure project based on the life cycle cost, which are not described herein again.
While embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it should be understood that they have been presented by way of example only, and not limitation, and that various changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A power grid infrastructure project optimization method based on life cycle cost is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target;
s2, obtaining a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, wherein each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of a power grid infrastructure project in the whole life cycle;
s3, converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost;
s4, comprehensively analyzing the cost of each life cycle and the corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results; the sample analysis result is used for representing the degree of influence of economy or/and technology on the whole life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and S5, identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results, so as to construct a power grid infrastructure project.
2. The method for optimizing the power grid infrastructure project based on the life cycle cost as claimed in claim 1, wherein:
in step S1, the construction target includes at least one of a voltage class, a main transformer number, a main transformer capacity, a GIS number, a GIS deployment mode, a transmission distance, a transmission area, and a line type of a power grid infrastructure project;
firstly, generating an equipment list and an occupation planning map by using a construction target, then generating a three-dimensional model of a power grid infrastructure project by using the equipment list and the occupation planning map, and then generating a plurality of alternative construction schemes by combining the equipment list, the occupation planning map and the three-dimensional model.
3. The method for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on life cycle cost as claimed in claim 1, wherein: step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
s41, respectively describing economic data and technical data corresponding to each life cycle cost through a plurality of probability distribution functions;
s42, carrying out sensitivity analysis on each full-life cycle cost and corresponding different probability distribution functions describing economic data and technical data through a preset Monte Carlo model to obtain corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity, wherein the economic sensitivity is used for expressing the degree of economic influence on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme, and the technical sensitivity is used for expressing the degree of technical influence on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and S43, combining the cost of each full life cycle and the corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity to form a corresponding sample analysis result.
4. The method for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on life cycle cost as claimed in claim 3, wherein: in step S41, the plurality of probability distribution functions include a discrete uniform distribution function for describing economic data and a normal distribution function for describing technical data.
5. The method for optimizing the power grid infrastructure project based on the full life cycle cost according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized by comprising the following steps of: step S5 specifically includes the following steps:
s51, classifying and sequencing the multiple sample analysis results to obtain an economic indicator sequence, a technical indicator sequence and a cost indicator sequence, wherein each sample analysis result comprises economic sensitivity, technical sensitivity and life cycle cost which are consistent with the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
s52, identifying the economic sensitivity with the minimum value in the economic indicator sequence, and identifying the technical sensitivity with the minimum value in the technical indicator sequence;
s53, performing identity verification on the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity according to the construction scheme decision rule;
s54, when the verification is successful, setting an alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme; when the verification fails, respectively searching the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity in the life cycle cost;
s55, comparing the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity with the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity to obtain a cost comparison result;
and S56, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity or the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction scheme according to the cost comparison result.
6. The method for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on life cycle cost as claimed in claim 5, wherein:
in step S53, when it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is the same as the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification is successful;
and when the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is different from the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity through the verification of the construction scheme decision rule, determining that the verification fails.
7. The method for optimizing the power grid infrastructure project based on the life cycle cost as claimed in claim 5, wherein:
in step S56, when the result of the cost comparison indicates that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting any one of the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity as a priority construction plan;
when the cost comparison result shows that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity as a priority construction scheme;
and when the cost comparison result shows that the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the total life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, setting the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity as a priority construction scheme.
8. The method for optimizing the power grid infrastructure project based on the life cycle cost according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in step S5, the construction plan decision rule includes that the construction plan adopted by the power grid infrastructure project under the condition that the cost of the life cycle is minimized is the same as the construction plan under the condition that the cost of the life cycle is minimized by the technology.
9. A system for optimizing a power grid infrastructure project based on life cycle cost, comprising:
the data input module is used for inputting construction scheme decision rules and construction targets which are consistent with the power grid infrastructure project;
the scheme generation module is used for setting a plurality of alternative construction schemes for the power grid infrastructure project according to the construction target;
the data input module is also used for inputting a plurality of sample data sets which are consistent with a plurality of alternative construction schemes one by one, and each sample data set comprises cost data, economic data and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project in the whole life cycle;
the LCC measuring and calculating module is used for converting the cost data in each sample data set through a preset LCC model to obtain corresponding life cycle cost;
the comprehensive analysis module is used for comprehensively analyzing each full-life cycle cost and the corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results, wherein the sample analysis results are used for expressing the degree of the economic or/and technical influence on the full-life cycle cost required by the power grid infrastructure project by adopting the corresponding alternative construction scheme;
and the scheme decision module is used for identifying a priority construction scheme from the multiple alternative construction schemes according to the construction scheme decision rule and the multiple sample analysis results so as to construct the power grid infrastructure project.
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| CN116029559A (en) * | 2023-03-29 | 2023-04-28 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power system infrastructure project combination scheme decision method |
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| CN116029559A (en) * | 2023-03-29 | 2023-04-28 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power system infrastructure project combination scheme decision method |
| CN116029559B (en) * | 2023-03-29 | 2023-06-23 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power system infrastructure project combination scheme decision method |
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