CN114386882B - Over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of water engineering scheduling effect - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of flood regulation and control, in particular to an over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of water engineering scheduling effects. Collecting basic data, and drawing up a water project list capable of participating in super-standard scheduling; constructing a water engineering joint scheduling model; inputting a flood forecasting process and the initial scheduling scheme into a water engineering combined scheduling model, calculating a disaster loss index, and judging whether loss meets expectations or not; if the loss does not meet the expectation, modifying the initial scheduling scheme, inputting the water project joint scheduling model again, calculating the pressure index of the water project, if the pressure exceeds 100%, continuously modifying the scheduling scheme, inputting the water project joint scheduling model again, and outputting the current scheduling scheme until the calculated pressure does not exceed 100%; and if the loss meets the expectation, outputting the conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project. The application mode of the water project can be corrected in a rolling mode according to the dispatching effect, and finally the risk-controllable over-standard dispatching application mode of the water project is obtained.

Description

Over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of water engineering scheduling effect

Technical Field

The invention relates to the technical field of flood regulation and control, in particular to an over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of water engineering scheduling effects.

Background

Water engineering scheduling is one of important means for controlling flood control risks, in general flood seasons, scheduling is usually performed according to a hub safety protection mode after a reservoir water level reaches a normal water storage level or a flood control high water level, and if a reservoir relates to a plurality of flood control protection objects, flood blocking is usually performed only according to a reserved flood control reservoir capacity for a certain specific flood control protection object; when the water level of the control station reaches the guaranteed water level, the corresponding flood storage area is usually started. In practical application, on the premise that the risk is controllable, if the reservoir relates to a plurality of flood control protection objects, an optimized adjustment space exists in a reserved distribution scheme of flood control reservoir capacity, part of the reservoir also has the condition of continuously controlling and stopping flood by utilizing normal water storage level or part of the reservoir capacity above the high flood control water level, and flood exceeding the guaranteed water level can be resisted by part of river bank embankments in a short time. For example, the three gorges (normal operation period) -the step scheduling procedure of the hydro junction of the pueraria showa dam (revision 2019) proposes that under certain conditions, the flood control compensation control water level of the three gorges reservoir to the los angeles can be raised from 155m to 158m, and the flood control effect to the los angeles is increased. In 1998, in order to relieve flood control pressure in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river, over-standard scheduling is carried out on the river-separating rock reservoir under the hub safety limit, the highest flood regulation level exceeds the normal water storage level by 3.94m, the sand city is reduced to the actual highest water level 45.22m from the possible highest water level of 45.50m, and the peak clipping and peak staggering effects are obvious. In 2003, flood is carried out in the river basin, the water level of the river reach from the WangJia dam to the Lutai son exceeds the guaranteed water level by 0.3-0.55 m, and the embankment is used for flood control.

At present, the research results on the over-standard scheduling application mode of the water engineering are less. The excessive scheduling application can occupy the defense capacity of the water engineering reserved for other flood protection objects or engineering self safety, namely, the flood risk of the target river reach is transferred to other flood protection objects or the engineering self, so that disaster loss can be formed, and the advantages and disadvantages of the excessive application need to be balanced.

Therefore, a method for guiding and adjusting the joint scheduling mode of the water project according to the flood scheduling risk and effect is needed to be provided, and the purpose is to roll and correct the application mode of the water project according to the scheduling effect and finally obtain the risk-controllable (disaster loss meets the expectation) over-standard scheduling application mode of the water project.

Disclosure of Invention

Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides the over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on the mutual feedback of the scheduling effect of the water project, which can be used for correcting the application mode of the water project according to the rolling of the scheduling effect and finally obtaining the application mode of the over-standard scheduling of the water project with controllable risk (the disaster loss meets the expectation).

The invention provides an over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of scheduling effects of water engineering, which comprises the following steps

Collecting basic data, and drawing up a water project list capable of participating in super-standard scheduling;

constructing a water engineering joint scheduling model;

taking a conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project as an initial scheduling scheme, inputting a flood forecasting process and the initial scheduling scheme in a joint scheduling model of the water project, and performing flood regulation calculation and backwater calculation to obtain the highest reservoir level of each reservoir, the reservoir water surface line, the highest water level of the embankment control section or the highest flood diversion level of the stagnant flood storage area;

calculating a disaster loss index according to the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the reservoir area water surface line, the highest water level of the embankment control section or the highest flood diversion level of the stagnant flood storage area, and judging whether the loss meets the expectation according to the disaster loss index;

if the loss does not meet the expectation, modifying the initial scheduling scheme, inputting the water project joint scheduling model again, calculating the pressure index of the water project, if the pressure exceeds 100%, continuously modifying the scheduling scheme, inputting the water project joint scheduling model again, and outputting the current scheduling scheme until the calculated pressure does not exceed 100%;

if the loss meets the expectation, outputting a conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project;

wherein, the process of modifying the scheduling scheme comprises the following steps:

Calculating initial state indexes of the reservoirs, the dikes and the stagnant flood storage areas at the initial time period, screening out water projects with residual defense capacity larger than zero, and sequencing according to weighted residual defense capacities from large to small;

and sequentially selecting a single water project according to the sequencing result, resetting the response index of the water project, and modifying the current scheduling scheme according to the reset response index of the selected water project to generate a new scheduling scheme of the basin.

Preferably, when the loss does not meet the expectation or the pressure exceeds 100%, the response index to be reset includes:

when the selected water project is an embankment, resetting the highest forced flood-discharging water level of the river channel of the embankment, and if the safety margin of the embankment is evaluated in advance and the upper limit value of the highest forced flood-discharging water level of the river channel of the embankment is determined, setting the highest forced flood-discharging water level of the river channel not to exceed the upper limit value;

when the selected water project is a reservoir, resetting the excess storage limit water level, the downward discharge flow or the excess storage starting flow of the reservoir;

and when the selected water project is the reserve area of the stagnant flood storage area, starting the stagnant flood storage area.

Preferably, when the selected water project is a reservoir, the discharge flow of the reservoir is increased or the excess storage limit water level of the reservoir is reduced when the current scheduling scheme is modified, and when the selected water project is a dike, the highest water level of forced flood discharge of the river channel is reduced.

Preferably, the collecting the basic data comprises:

collecting characteristic water level, water level-reservoir capacity curve, water level-discharge capacity curve, flood control dispatching mode and reservoir area water level-submerging loss relation curve information of a reservoir in a flood forecasting process;

collecting starting conditions, effective volume and volume-submerging loss relation curve information of the stagnant flood storage area;

and collecting the relation between the water level and the flow of the downstream flood control station, and ensuring the water level, the height of the embankment top and the safety discharge.

Preferably, the drawing up the list of water projects that can participate in the super-standard scheduling includes:

collecting design data including reservoir pivot arrangement, buildings, electromechanical and metal structures and flood regulation calculation information and actual operation conditions of dam bodies, behind dams, spillways and water delivery culvert parts in a water project;

collecting the height of the river levee body, the terrain, the levee foundation soil layer and the situation of the existing seepage-proofing engineering measures of the river reach represented by the flood control point;

and when all the information of the water project meets the standard exceeding scheduling regulations, adding the water project into a water project list capable of participating in standard exceeding scheduling.

Preferably, the constructing of the water engineering joint scheduling model includes:

combining the current water project joint scheduling scheme and scheduling rules of all projects to acquire information of water projects, incoming water boundary sites and control objects related to scheduling;

Analyzing the basin water situation, the scheduling requirement, the scheduling target, the scheduling object, the project starting condition and the operation mode information;

constructing a water engineering joint scheduling model according to the analyzed information;

when the scheduling requirements are analyzed, each river reach in the region is divided into a plurality of sections by taking the important flood control sections as nodes, and the scheduling requirements of each control section in the region are further refined by taking the allowable discharge flow of the river as a constraint condition;

when the dispatching object is analyzed, a water project consisting of a controlled reservoir, a main flow embankment and a stagnant flood storage area is used as the dispatching object.

Preferably, the calculating a disaster damage index and determining whether damage satisfies expectations according to the disaster damage index includes:

calculating the number of affected population according to the height of the submerged water level and the relation between the water level and the area by combining the average population distribution rate;

calculating the affected cultivated land area according to the submerged water level elevation and the water level-area relation by combining the cultivated land area occupation ratio;

obtaining volume loss according to the height of the submerged water level and the relation between the water level and the volume, and calculating direct economic loss according to unit volume loss;

obtaining the number of flooded important towns according to the submerged water level elevation and the relation between the water level and the disaster-bearing body loss rate;

And when any one or more of the number of the affected population, the affected cultivated area, the direct economic loss and the number of the flooded important towns exceeds the respective corresponding disaster threshold value, judging that the loss does not meet the expectation.

Preferably, when the weighted remaining defense capacities are sequentially sorted from large to small, if the weighted remaining defense capacities of the dikes and the reservoir are equal and the remaining defense capacity of the reservoir is in the first interval or the second interval, placing the reservoir before the dikes;

the first interval is as follows: recording the reserved flood control storage capacity of the reservoir as a target river reach as X, and recording the water level corresponding to the increase of the storage capacity X above the flood control limit water level of the reservoir in the flood season as Z₁Then Z is₁The storage capacity between the dead water level of the reservoir and the dead water level of the reservoir is a first interval;

the second interval is: from Z₁The storage capacity between the flood control high water level of the reservoir is a second interval.

Preferably, the remaining defense capacity is divided into a plurality of levels in the order of low to high, and when the remaining defense capacity of the water works is in the same level, the remaining defense capacity of the water works is considered to be equal.

Preferably, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is divided into a first level, a second level and a third level from low to high:

When the current reservoir water level is lower than the flood limit water level, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is a first level;

when the highest flood regulating level of the reservoir, which is regulated from the flood control high level of the target river reach, corresponds to the reservoir capacity which is equal to the reservoir capacity between the flood control high level of the target river reach and the flood control high level of the reservoir, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is a second level;

and when the highest flood regulation level of the reservoir, which is regulated from the flood control high level of the target river reach, corresponds to the reservoir capacity which is equal to the reservoir capacity between the flood control high level of the reservoir and the check flood level of the reservoir, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is the third level.

The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows: according to the method, flood scheduling risk assessment is carried out from two dimensions of disaster loss and flood control pressure, the water engineering joint scheduling effect and risk are quantized, a water engineering joint flood control scheduling mode under the over-standard flood is corrected by feedback, and technical support is provided for over-standard flood risk regulation and control.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of the classification of the reservoir defense capacity of the invention.

Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of a flood control system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed Description

In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and advantageous effects to be solved by the present application clearer, the present application is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.

It will be understood that when an element is referred to as being "secured to" or "disposed on" another element, it can be directly on the other element or be indirectly on the other element. When an element is referred to as being "connected to" another element, it can be directly connected to the other element or be indirectly connected to the other element.

It will be understood that the terms "length," "width," "upper," "lower," "front," "rear," "left," "right," "vertical," "horizontal," "top," "bottom," "inner," "outer," and the like are used in an orientation or positional relationship indicated in the drawings to facilitate the description of the application and to simplify the description, and are not intended to indicate or imply that the device or element so referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed in a particular orientation, and be constructed in operation as a limitation of the application.

Furthermore, the terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or to implicitly indicate the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. In the description of the present application, "a plurality" means two or more unless specifically limited otherwise.

Fig. 1 shows a flow chart of an out-of-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of water engineering scheduling effects according to a preferred embodiment of the present application (fig. 1 shows a first embodiment of the present application), and for convenience of description, only the parts related to the present embodiment are shown, and the details are as follows:

step 1, collecting basic data, and drawing up a water project list which can participate in super-standard scheduling;

step 2, constructing a water engineering joint scheduling model;

step 3, inputting a flood forecasting process and an initial scheduling scheme, and performing flood regulation calculation and backwater calculation to obtain the highest reservoir level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area and the like;

step 4, calculating disaster loss indexes according to the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the water surface line of the reservoir area, the highest water level of the embankment control section and the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the flood storage and stagnation area, judging whether the loss meets the expectation or not, and if not, turning to the step 5; if the loss meets the expectation, the step 13 is carried out;

step 5, calculating the initial state indexes of the time periods of the reservoirs, the dikes and the stagnant flood storage areas, screening out water projects with the residual defense capacity larger than zero, and sequencing the water projects from large to small according to the weighted residual defense capacity, wherein when the weighted residual defense capacities of the dikes and the reservoirs are equivalent, if the residual defense capacity of the reservoirs is in a first interval or a second interval shown in the figure 1, the sequencing of the reservoirs is superior to that of the dikes, and otherwise, the dykes are preferentially considered to be subjected to over-standard scheduling application; turning to step 6;

Step 6, according to the sequencing result of the step 5, sequentially selecting a single water project setting response index, and if the selected project is a dike, turning to a step 7; if the reservoir is the water reservoir, the step 8 is carried out; if the flood storage area is the stagnant flood storage area, the step 9 is carried out;

and 7, selecting a target river reach dike j for risk regulation, setting a response index of scheduling of the dike j, namely the highest water level of forced flood discharge of the river, and determining the upper limit value (EZ) of the highest water level of forced flood discharge of the dike river if the safety margin of the dike is evaluated in advance_j,pmax) If the maximum water level of the river channel forced flood should not exceed the upper limit value; it should be noted that the flood level of the flood storage and stagnation division bearing the flood diversion task of the target river section should be adjusted (the water level is ensured by the dike and is changed into the highest water level of the river channel forced flood); turning to step 10;

step 8, selecting a reservoir k for risk regulation and control, and setting response indexes of reservoir k scheduling: the method comprises the following steps of firstly, storing excessively to limit water level, secondly, discharging flow downwards, and thirdly, storing excessively to start flow; turning to step 10;

step 9, selecting a retention area g of the stagnant flood storage area to regulate and control risks, and starting the stagnant flood storage area g; turning to step 10;

step 10, modifying the reference scheduling mode according to the response indexes of the selected water projects, generating a new water project combined scheduling mode of the drainage basin, and carrying out flood regulation calculation to obtain the highest reservoir water level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest water level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area and the like; calculating the pressure indexes of each reservoir and each dike, if the pressure does not exceed 100%, indicating that the engineering accident risk of the current water engineering over-standard scheduling application mode can be accepted, and turning to the step 3; otherwise, turning to step 11;

Step 11, the hydraulic engineering pressure exceeds 100%, which indicates that the currently proposed out-of-standard scheduling application mode can cause engineering failure (such as dam overflow or dam break event), and the response index needs to be adjusted: if the river is an embankment, turning to step 6 to reduce the highest forced flood level of the river; if the reservoir is a reservoir, turning to step 7, increasing the discharge flow of the reservoir k, or (or) reducing the excess storage limit water level of the reservoir k;

and 12, outputting the current scheduling scheme and the disaster damage index.

Preferably, step 1 comprises:

step 1.1, collecting basic data;

collecting information of a flood forecasting process, such as characteristic water level, water level-reservoir capacity curve, water level-discharge capacity curve, flood control dispatching mode, reservoir area water level-flooding loss relation curve and the like, collecting information of starting conditions, effective volume, volume-flooding loss relation curve and the like of a flood storage and stagnation area, and collecting information of water level-flow relation, guaranteed water level, dyke top elevation, safe discharge and the like of a downstream flood control station.

Step 1.2, a water project list which can participate in super-standard scheduling is preliminarily designed according to the engineering physical conditions;

the super-standard scheduling is based on engineering safety as a premise, not all reservoirs and dikes have the physical conditions of the super-standard scheduling, and the method is determined by combining engineering structure design and actual operation condition to carry out observation and analysis: collecting design data such as reservoir pivot arrangement, buildings, electromechanical and metal structures, flood regulation calculation and the like and actual operation conditions of dam bodies, behind dams, spillways, water delivery culverts and other parts of the dams, collecting conditions such as height of the dam body, terrain, base soil layers of the dam, the conventional seepage-proofing engineering measures of dangerous cases and the like of flood control points representing river reach, and preliminarily judging whether the water engineering has physical conditions for carrying out over-standard scheduling.

Preferably, step 2 specifically includes: dividing each river reach in the region into a plurality of sections by taking the important flood control sections as nodes, taking the allowable discharge flow of the river as a constraint condition, further refining the scheduling requirements of each control section in the region, taking a water project consisting of a controlled reservoir, a main flow embankment and a stagnant flood storage region as a scheduling object, and constructing a water project joint scheduling model by using a scheduling rule base.

Preferably, step 3 specifically includes: and taking the conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project as an initial scheduling scheme, wherein the conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project is a conventional scheduling mode of a controllable reservoir, a main flowing embankment and a stagnant flood storage area which are drawn up according to the current scheduling regulation of the reservoir and the united scheduling application plan of the watershed water project. Inputting the natural water inlet process of each reservoir and the flood control point and the interval flow process of the reservoir and the flood control point to a model, calculating the reservoir water level of the reservoir, the reservoir inlet and outlet flow process and the reservoir area backwater water surface line according to water balance, and calculating and controlling the cross section water level flow process according to the water balance and the river course to obtain the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the reservoir area water surface line, the highest dam control cross section water level and the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area.

Preferably, step 4 specifically includes:

step 4.1, calculating a disaster loss index;

calculating the affected population, obtaining the affected area according to the height of the submerged water level and the relation between the water level and the area, and obtaining the number of the affected population by considering the uniform distribution of the population, wherein the unit is as follows: ten thousands of people;

calculating the submerged cultivated land area, obtaining the affected area according to the submerged water level elevation and the water level-area relation, and obtaining the affected cultivated land area according to the conversion of the cultivated land area ratio, wherein the unit is as follows: ten thousand mu;

calculating direct economic loss, obtaining the submerging volume according to the submerging water level elevation and the water level-volume relation, and calculating the direct economic loss according to the unit volume loss, wherein the unit is as follows: billion yuan;

calculating the affected important infrastructure, taking a railway as an example, and obtaining the length of the flooded railway according to the relationship between the height of the submerged water level and the loss rate of the water level-disaster bearing body, unit: km;

calculating the number of the flooded important towns, and obtaining the number of the flooded important towns according to the submerged water level elevation and the relation between the water level and the disaster-bearing body loss rate, wherein the unit is as follows: and (4) respectively.

Step 4.2, judging whether the loss meets the expectation;

man-machine interaction measures can be adopted or a threshold value is set for the disaster index to automatically judge whether the loss meets the expectation or not, and if the loss does not meet the expectation, the step 5 is carried out; if the loss has met the expectation, step 12 is entered.

Preferably, step 5 specifically includes:

step 5.1, calculating a state index;

the state index is used for representing the residual defense capacity of the water engineering.

The 'residual defense capacity' of the reservoir refers to the regulation and control capacity of the reservoir on the flood of the target river reach and is expressed by the reservoir capacity between the current reservoir water level and the check flood level. Defining the Residual Defense Capacity (RDC) of the Reservoir as the Reservoir Capacity between the current water level and the check flood level, and assuming that the Reservoir Capacity corresponding to the check flood level of the Reservoir k is V_k ^jhThe current water level of the reservoir is RZ_k,tCorresponding to a library capacity of V (RZ)^k,t) Then, the mathematical expression of the remaining defense capacity of the reservoir k at the time t is as follows:

the unit: hundred million (um)³

A flood control engineering system for a drainage basin relates to a multi-reservoir of main and branch flows, needs a system to evaluate the defense capacity of the whole reservoir group of the drainage basin, and can set a defense capacity weight for each reservoir. Comprehensively considering factors such as interval flood, reservoir flood control design characteristic water level, distance between the reservoir and the target river reach and the like, defining the reservoir defense capacity weight as follows:

in the formula: alpha is alpha_k,tThe reservoir coefficient of the reservoir k at the moment t is obtained; and N is the number of reservoirs. Δ t is the time interval step, unit: s; q^loc _k,maxRepresents the maximum interval flow of the reservoir k, unit: m is ³/s；V^des _kThe design flood control storage capacity of the reservoir is represented, and is equal to the storage capacity between a flood limit water level and a flood control high water level, the unit is as follows: m 3; lk represents the distance from the reservoir k to the downstream target river reach, in units: and m is selected.

Defining the residual Defense Capacity (EDC) of the dam as the difference value of the current river water level and the top elevation, and assuming that j the top elevation of the dam control section (representative station) of a certain river segment is EZj^ddCurrent river level EZ_j,tThen the mathematical expression of the remaining defense capacity of the dike j at time t is as follows:

unit: m is a unit of

The remaining defense capacity of the stagnant flood zone is represented by the remaining effective flood storage volume:

for the stagnant Flood Area g, defining the residual Defense Capacity (ADC) of the stagnant Flood Area as the current residual effective Flood storage volume, which is recorded as ADC_g,tThe unit: hundred million (um)³。

Step 5.2, screening the water projects with the residual defense capacity larger than zero, and sequencing the water projects from large to small according to the weighted residual defense capacity;

for a single target river reach, the remaining defense capacity of the reservoir can be roughly divided into 3 levels, which are from bottom to top:

reserving flood regulation reservoir capacity in a target river reach: flood is designed for defense target river reach planning standard, and the highest flood regulation level (target river reach flood control high level) of the reservoir regulated according to the flood limit level corresponds to the reservoir capacity. If the current reservoir water level of the reservoir is lower than the flood limit water level, the defense capacity can be additionally increased, and the level 1 is counted; reserving flood regulation storage capacity in other river reach: designing flood for defending other river reach planning standards, wherein the highest flood regulation level of the reservoir, which is regulated from the flood prevention high level of the target river reach, corresponds to the reservoir capacity, and is equal to the reservoir capacity between the flood prevention high level of the target river reach and the flood prevention high level of the reservoir; and thirdly, reserving flood regulation reservoir capacity for the dam: in order to prevent dam engineering from checking standard flood, the highest flood regulation level of the reservoir, which is regulated from the flood control high level of the target river reach, corresponds to the reservoir capacity, which is equal to the reservoir capacity between the flood control high level of the reservoir and the check flood level of the reservoir. When the weighted residual defense capacities of the dikes and the reservoirs are equivalent, if the residual defense capacities of the reservoirs are in a first interval or a second interval shown in the figure 1, the reservoir sequencing is superior to the dikes, and otherwise, the excessive scheduling and application of the dikes are considered preferentially; and (6) turning to the step.

Preferably, step 7 specifically includes: the response index of the reservoir is mainly used for guiding the application mode of the proposed reservoir excess storage scheduling, and specifically comprises 3 indexes: the excess storage limit water level refers to the highest reservoir water level which allows the reservoir k to be used as the flood control dispatching and application of the target river reach and is marked as RZ_k,max(unit: m), according to the flood control characteristic water level drawing-up principle in reservoir planning and design, generally suggesting that the excess storage operation limit water level does not exceed the design flood level; the discharge flow rate refers to a discharge flow rate control mode for flood control and excess storage of the reservoir k as a target river reach, the discharge flow rate is optimally adjusted on the basis of a conventional scheduling operation mode, and fixed discharge or compensation discharge can be adopted and is marked as Q_k,sep(unit: m)³S); thirdly, the excess storage starting flow refers to the starting time of the flood control excess storage application of the target river reach, the flow is usually forecasted for the control section j of the target river reach and is recorded as Q_j,sep(unit: m)³/s）。

Preferably, step 8 specifically includes: the embankment over-standard dispatching mainly refers to the ultrahigh running of an embankment at a target river section, namely, the river channel is lifted to force the flood level. Thus the sound of embankment dispatchThe index is the highest water level of the river channel forced flood, and is recorded as EZ_j,max(unit: m) refers to the highest water level for allowing the riverway to carry out forced flood when the scheduling is out of standard.

Preferably, step 9 specifically includes: there are mainly 2 cases for the containment flood zone superstandard scheduling: firstly, after the embankment exceeds standard scheduling and application, the starting conditions of the stagnant flood storage area are correspondingly adjusted; and secondly, selecting a machine to start a flood storage and stagnation reserving area for undertaking flood diversion tasks of the target river reach according to the risk regulation and control requirements. Therefore, the response index of the stagnant flood area is the starting time and is recorded as AZ_j,max(unit: m) indicates the flood level of the flood storage and stagnation area which undertakes the flood diversion task of the target river reach when the scheduling exceeds the standard.

Preferably, the step 10 of calculating the pressure indexes of the reservoirs and the dikes includes:

the flood control pressure index of the reservoir is used for representing the possibility of project accident (dam overflow) after the reservoir adopts a proposed scheduling mode in the current state, and theoretically, uncertainty of prediction error, gate operation and the like should be considered. In practical application, in order to save calculation time and cost, the flood forecasting process can be amplified by a certain proportion according to the forecasting level, and RZ of the reservoir according to the given dispatching rule is calculated_tThe highest reservoir water level for regulating the water level and regulating the flood is adopted, the possibility of reservoir accident is measured by the distance between the water level and the dam crest elevation, and the flood control pressure index of the reservoir at the moment is as follows:

in the formula

The forecast error is the forecast error of the rain falling to the ground, the forecast period rainfall, the trend rainfall and the like. For safety reasons, RP _iShould be less than 1.

The flood control pressure index of the dike mainly represents the possibility of dike permeation and structure damage, and is measured by the dike permeation and anti-skid safety coefficient change caused by the fact that the highest water level of river channel forced flood discharge exceeds the designed flood level of the dike,because river bank lasts hundreds of kilometers and the calculated amount is large, safety margin evaluation under the condition that the bank exceeds the standard is recommended to be carried out in advance, a plurality of representative sections are selected for a target river section, factors such as the height of a bank body, the terrain, a bank foundation soil layer, the conventional seepage-proofing engineering measures for dangerous cases and the like are analyzed systematically, seepage stability and anti-skid stability analysis and calculation of the bank are carried out, the upper limit value of the maximum water level of forced flood drainage of the bank river channel of the target river section is provided and is recorded as EZ_j,pmaxThen, the flood control pressure index of the target river reach embankment control section j is as follows:

in the formula EZ_j,maxThe maximum elevation of the water level of the river channel in the forecast period can be obtained through calculation according to the current water level elevation of the river channel, the interval flow process, the scheduling process of the upstream reservoir group in the forecast period and the like. For safety reasons, EP_iShould not exceed 1.

Example two

In order to make the purpose and technical scheme of the invention more clear and more obvious, a section E is controlled for a certain target river reach by combining with an attached figure 3₁Flood control demand, considering 21 reservoir groups (R) ₁-R₂₁) And 1 flood storage area (A)₁) And (4) participating in scheduling, selecting a certain field of over-standard flood, and further detailing certain aspects of the invention.

Step 1, collecting basic data, and drawing up a water project list which can participate in super-standard scheduling;

wherein, collecting the basic data comprises: collecting information of a flood forecasting process, such as a characteristic water level, a water level-reservoir capacity curve, a water level-discharge capacity curve, a flood control dispatching mode, a reservoir area water level-flooding loss relation curve and the like, collecting information of starting conditions, effective volumes, a volume-flooding loss relation curve and the like of a stagnant flood storage area, collecting information of a water level-flow relation of a downstream flood control station, a guaranteed water level, a levee top elevation, safe discharge and the like.

The step of drawing up a water project list which can participate in the super-standard scheduling comprises the following steps:

21 controllable reservoirThe dam comprises 11 gravity dams, 7 arch dams, 4 earth-rock dams and 1 mixed dam type of a roller compacted concrete gravity dam and an earth core rock-fill dam, wherein the gravity dams and the arch dams are mainly made of concrete, and the rest dams are mainly made of earth-rock. According to dam type, geological conditions, flood discharge building metal structure design, engineering development task and actual operation condition, primarily simulating reservoir capable of participating in over-standard scheduling as R ₁-R₁₀，R₁₃，R₁₅And R₂₁。

According to the current scheduling regulation, the control section E of the embankment of the target river reach₁The water level is ensured to be 34.4m, and when the water level of the river reaches 34.4m and is in an upward trend, the stagnant flood storage area A needs to be started₁. Selecting a plurality of typical sections (including a control section E) from the target river section dike₁) Calculating the change of the dyke permeability and the anti-skid safety coefficient under the over-design water level, wherein the result shows that when the river water level is raised by 1.0-1.5 m on the basis of ensuring the water level, the typical section selected by the river reach can meet the standard requirement, so that the primarily-planned target river reach dyke can participate in over-standard scheduling and undertake the flood storage and stagnation area A of the corresponding flood diversion task₁The enabling conditions are also adjusted accordingly.

And 2, constructing a combined application scheduling model of the flood control project of the target river reach.

And (3) combining the existing water project joint scheduling scheme and the scheduling procedures of all projects, clearly scheduling the related water projects, incoming water boundary sites and control objects, analyzing the basin incoming water situation, scheduling requirements, scheduling targets, scheduling objects, project starting conditions, operation modes and the like, and creating a scheduling rule base of the reference scheme. Wherein R is₂₁When the reservoir water level is between 171.0 and 175.0m, the flow of the control section of the compensation target river reach is controlled not to exceed 80000m ³S, control E under the condition of taking flood diversion and storage measures₁Water level not higher than 45.0m, A₁The enabling condition is E₁The water level reached 45.0 m.

Step 3, inputting a flood forecasting process and a dispatching scheme, and performing flood regulating calculation and backwater calculation to obtain the highest reservoir water level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest water level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area and the like;

step 4, calculating disaster loss indexes according to the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the water surface line of the reservoir area, the highest water level of the embankment control section and the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the flood storage and stagnation area, judging whether the loss meets the expectation or not, and if not, turning to the step 5; if the loss has met the expectation, proceed to step 13.

Inputting the reference scheme into the flood control project and jointly applying the scheduling model for calculation, and predicting R in the period₂₁Highest reservoir level 171.0m, E of reservoir₁The water level will be higher than 45m and A needs to be started₁Flood diversion, excess flood volume 18 hundred million m³Prediction of A₁The maximum submerged water depth is 2.8m, and the economic loss is 56.48 billion yuan; r₂₁The influence range of the flooding of the migration line of the reservoir migration is about 189km, and the economic loss is 10.36 million yuan. Determining a reference scheme R by human-computer interaction₂₁The downstream flooding loss is too large to be expected, and the process goes to step 5.

Step 5, calculating the initial state indexes of the time periods of the reservoirs, the dikes and the stagnant flood storage areas, screening out water projects with the residual defense capacity larger than zero, and sequencing the water projects from large to small according to the weighted residual defense capacity, wherein when the weighted residual defense capacities of the dikes and the reservoirs are equivalent, if the residual defense capacity of the reservoirs is in a first interval or a second interval shown in the figure 1, the sequencing of the reservoirs is superior to that of the dikes, and otherwise, the dykes are preferentially considered to be subjected to over-standard scheduling application; and (6) transferring to the step.

The R before the arrival of the over-standard flood peak is known by analyzing the residual flood control capacity of each reservoir₂₁The reservoir still has 39.20 hundred million m³The flood control storage capacity is not used, and the total of the rest 20 controlled reservoir groups is 36.68 hundred million meters³Reservoir capacity for flood control is not yet in use, and R₂₁Downstream excess flood volume is 18 hundred million m³And judging the condition for developing out the over-standard scheduling application. Combining the initial list in the step 1, calculating the state indexes of the water projects under the reference rule, and firstly sorting the reservoir groups according to the weighted residual defense capacity, wherein the table 1 shows that:

table 1 status indexes of each reservoir under the reference scheme

Lifting under baseline₁The effect of flood control water level on excess flood is equivalent to 14 hundred million m³The remaining defense capabilities are weighted. When the residual defense capacities of the reservoir and the dike are equivalent, sequencing by referring to the residual defense capacity grades of the reservoir: if the water level of the reservoir is lower than the flood control high water level at the beginning of the time interval, the participation of the reservoir in response is considered preferentially; and if the water level of the reservoir reaches the flood control high water level at the beginning of the time period, the embankment participation response is preferably considered. The water engineering response priority order participating in the over-standard scheduling application is as follows: r ₂₁、E₁、R₉、R₁₀、R₁₅、R₆、R₈、R₅、R₃、R₄、R₇、R₂、R₁、A₁Proceed to step 6.

Step 6, according to the sequencing result of the step 5, sequentially selecting a single water project to set response indexes, and if the selected project is an embankment, turning to step 7; if the reservoir is the water reservoir, turning to the step 8; if the flood area is the stagnant flood area, the step 9 is carried out;

preferentially selecting R according to the sequence₂₁And (5) reservoir storage, and transferring to the step 8.

Step 8, selecting a reservoir k for risk regulation and control, and setting response indexes of reservoir k scheduling: the method comprises the following steps of firstly, storing excessively to limit water level, secondly, discharging flow downwards, and thirdly, storing excessively to start flow; turning to step 10;

modification of R₂₁The operation mode is scheduled, the upper limit of the water level for the excess storage is set to 172.0m, the lower discharge flow is changed into the flow not exceeding 70000m according to the section flow controlled by the target river reach³The start-up time is changed to R₂₁After the reservoir water level reaches 171.0m and the forecast flow of the control section of the target river reach over 70000m³And/s, recording the scheduling rule as an optimization scheme 1, and turning to the step 10.

Step 10, modifying the reference scheduling mode according to the response indexes of the selected water projects, generating a new water project combined scheduling mode of the drainage basin, and carrying out flood regulation calculation to obtain the highest reservoir water level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest water level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area and the like; calculating the pressure indexes of each reservoir and each dike, if the pressure does not exceed 100%, indicating that the engineering accident risk of the current water engineering over-standard scheduling application mode can be accepted, and turning to the step 3; otherwise, turning to step 12;

And (4) taking 5% of flood forecasting errors into consideration, inputting the optimization scheme 1 into a flood control project to jointly use a scheduling model for calculation, and obtaining the water level process of each reservoir and the control section. Analyzing the highest flood regulation level of each reservoir by adopting a flood control project combined application scheduling model, wherein the highest flood regulation level does not exceed the check flood level; after considering the flood diversion at the opening, E₁The highest water level is 45.59m and does not exceed the height of the top of the dike; therefore, the pressure indexes of the water engineering in the optimization scheme 1 meet the requirements, the engineering accident risk is controllable, and the step 3 is carried out.

And 3, inputting a flood forecasting process and a dispatching scheme, and performing flood regulating calculation and backwater calculation to obtain the highest reservoir water level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest water level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area and the like.

Inputting the optimization scheme 1 into flood control engineering to jointly apply a scheduling model for calculation to obtain the water level process of each reservoir and the control section, and turning to the step 4.

Step 4, calculating disaster loss indexes according to the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the water surface line of the reservoir area, the highest water level of the embankment control section and the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the flood storage and stagnation area, judging whether the loss meets the expectation or not, and if not, turning to the step 5; if the loss meets the expectation, the step 12 is carried out;

R₂₁Highest flood level 171.43m, but in forecast period E₁The water level still exceeds 45m, and the excess flood volume is 13.7 hundred million m³Still need to start A₁The maximum submerged water depth is 2.3m, and the economic loss is 46.75 billion yuan; r₂₁The influence range of the flooding of the migration line of the reservoir migration is about 184km, and the economic loss is 10.36 million yuan. Judging R by human-computer interaction₂₁The downstream flooding losses are still higher than expected and do not meet the risk regulation expectations, and step 5 is carried over.

Step 5, calculating the initial state indexes of the time periods of the reservoirs, the dikes and the stagnant flood storage areas, screening out water projects with the residual defense capacity larger than zero, and sequencing the water projects from large to small according to the weighted residual defense capacity, wherein when the weighted residual defense capacities of the dikes and the reservoirs are equivalent, if the residual defense capacity of the reservoirs is in the interval I or II shown in the figure 1, the sequencing of the reservoirs is superior to that of the dikes, and otherwise, the excessive scheduling and application of the dikes are preferably considered; and (6) turning to the step.

According to the response sequence of the planned water works, 13 water works meeting the out-of-standard scheduling application condition have no response indexes set yet, and the process is switched to step 6 without reordering.

Step 6, according to the sequencing result of the step 5, sequentially selecting a single water project to set response indexes, and if the selected project is an embankment, turning to step 7; if the reservoir is the water reservoir, turning to the step 8; if the flood area is the stagnant flood area, the step 9 is carried out;

Preference by order of E₁Proceed to step 7.

And 7, selecting a target river reach dike j for risk regulation, setting a response index of scheduling of the dike j, namely the highest forced flood level of the river, and determining the upper limit value (EZ) of the highest forced flood level of the dike river if the safety margin of the dike is evaluated in advance_j,pmax) If the maximum water level of the river channel forced flood should not exceed the upper limit value; it should be noted that the flood level of the relevant flood storage and stagnation areas should be adjusted (the water level guaranteed by the dike is changed into the highest water level for forced flood drainage of the river); turning to step 10;

setting E₁The riverway forces the flood to reach the highest water level. According to related research results, when the target river reach dike is lifted by 1.5m on the basis of ensuring the water level to operate, most sections can meet the standard requirements. According to the research result of the influence of the water level lifting control on the excess flood change, when E₁When the flood control water level exceeds 45.5m, although the excess flood can be reduced, the disaster reduction benefit is reduced because part of the penetrating buildings can be affected. Therefore, from the viewpoint of efficiency, E is set₁The highest water level of the river channel forced flood is 45.5m, A₁The starting condition is changed to E₁And when the water level reaches 45.5m, recording the scheduling mode as an optimization scheme 2, and turning to the step 10.

Step 10, modifying the reference scheduling mode according to the response indexes of the selected water projects, generating a new water project combined scheduling mode of the drainage basin, and carrying out flood regulation calculation to obtain the highest reservoir water level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest water level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) level of the stagnant flood storage area and the like; calculating the pressure indexes of each reservoir and each dike, if the pressure does not exceed 100%, indicating that the engineering accident risk of the current water engineering over-standard scheduling application mode can be accepted, and turning to the step 3; otherwise, turning to step 12;

and (4) considering the flood forecasting error of 5%, inputting the optimization scheme 2 into a flood control project to jointly use a scheduling model for calculation to obtain the water level process of each reservoir and the control section. Analyzing the highest flood regulation level of each reservoir by adopting a flood control project combined dispatching model, wherein the highest flood regulation level does not exceed the check flood level; after considering flood diversion at the opening, E₁The highest water level is 45.59m and does not exceed the height of the top of the dike; therefore, the pressure indexes of the water projects in the optimization scheme 2 meet the requirements, the project crash risk is controllable, and the step 3 is carried out.

And 3, inputting a flood forecasting process and a dispatching scheme, and performing flood regulation calculation and backwater calculation to obtain the highest reservoir water level and the reservoir area water surface line of each reservoir, the highest water level of the embankment control section, the highest flood diversion (if any) of the stagnant flood storage area and the like.

Inputting the optimization scheme 2 into the flood control project, jointly applying a scheduling model for calculation, obtaining the water level process of each reservoir and the control section, and turning to the step 4.

Step 4, calculating disaster loss indexes according to the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the reservoir area water surface line, the highest water level of the embankment control section and the highest flood diversion (if the flood diversion exists) level of the flood storage and stagnation area, judging whether the loss meets the expectation or not, and if the loss does not meet the expectation, turning to step 5; if the loss meets the expectation, the step 12 is carried out;

R₂₁highest flood regulation 171.43m, E for reservoir₁The highest water level is 45.47m, excess flood is avoided, and flood diversion is not needed; r₂₁The influence range of the flooding of the migration line of the reservoir migration is about 184km, and the economic loss is 10.36 million yuan. And judging to meet the risk regulation expectation through human-computer interaction, and finishing the risk regulation.

The effect of each scheme is shown in table 2. Flood simulation in current scheduling regulations for standardsOn the basis of a fixed scheduling rule, the residual flood control capacity and the disaster reduction benefit of a river basin flood control engineering system are comprehensively considered, and on the premise of safe and controllable engineering, a water engineering scheduling application scheme is properly modified, for example, when the water shortage of 80000m is forecasted on a target river reach control section³At s, by using R₂₁The storage capacity between the reservoirs 171m to 175m is appropriately held while raising E ₁The embankment river channel is forced to flood the highest water level, thereby avoiding starting A₁56.48 million yuan of flood diversion loss can be saved, but because of R₂₁The reservoir water level is lifted, and the submerging time of the reservoir area is prolonged;

table 2 comparison of effects of different scheduling schemes for superstandard flood

The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application, and not for limiting the same; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not substantially depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present application and are intended to be included within the scope of the present application.

Claims (9)

1. An over-standard flood risk regulation and control method based on mutual feedback of scheduling effects of water engineering is characterized by comprising the following steps: comprises that

Collecting basic data, and drawing up a water project list which can participate in over-standard scheduling;

constructing a water engineering combined scheduling model;

taking a conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water engineering as an initial scheduling scheme, inputting a flood forecasting process and the initial scheduling scheme in a joint scheduling model of the water engineering, and performing flood regulation calculation and backwater calculation to obtain the highest reservoir level of each reservoir, the surface line of the reservoir area, the highest level of a dike control section or the highest flood diversion level of a stagnant flood storage area;

Calculating a disaster loss index according to the highest reservoir water level of each reservoir, the reservoir area water surface line, the highest water level of the embankment control section or the highest flood diversion level of the stagnant flood storage area, and judging whether the loss meets the expectation according to the disaster loss index;

if the loss does not meet the expectation, modifying the initial scheduling scheme, inputting the water project joint scheduling model again, calculating the pressure index of the water project, if the pressure exceeds 100%, continuously modifying the scheduling scheme, inputting the water project joint scheduling model again, and outputting the current scheduling scheme until the calculated pressure does not exceed 100%;

if the loss meets the expectation, outputting a conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project;

wherein, the process of modifying the scheduling scheme comprises the following steps:

calculating initial state indexes of the reservoirs, the dikes and the stagnant flood storage areas at the initial time period, screening out water projects with residual defense capacity larger than zero, and sequencing according to weighted residual defense capacities from large to small;

according to the sequencing result, sequentially selecting a single water project, resetting the response index of the water project, and modifying the current scheduling scheme according to the reset response index of the selected water project to generate a new scheduling scheme of the basin;

The residual defense capacity refers to the residual defense capacity of the reservoir, the residual defense capacity of the dike and the residual defense capacity of the flood storage area;

the residual defense capacity of the reservoir refers to the regulation and control capacity of the reservoir on flood of a target river reach and is expressed by the reservoir capacity between the current reservoir level and the check flood level, and the mathematical expression of the residual defense capacity of the reservoir k at the moment t is as follows:

the unit is: hundred million (um)³Wherein, V_k ^jhChecking the flood level for the reservoir k corresponding to the reservoir capacity, RZ_k,tIs the current water level of the reservoir, V (RZ)^k,t) Is RZ_k,tCorresponding to the storage capacity;

the residual defense capacity of the dike is the difference value between the current river water level and the elevation of the dike top, and the mathematical expression of the residual defense capacity of the dike j at the time t is as follows:

the unit: m, wherein, EZj^ddControlling the elevation of the j top of the section for river levee_j,tThe current water level of the river channel;

the residual defense capacity of the flood storage and stagnation area is the current residual effective flood storage volume and is recorded as ADC_g,tThe unit: hundred million (um)³；

The construction of the water engineering joint scheduling model comprises the following steps:

combining the current water project joint scheduling scheme and the scheduling rules of all projects to acquire the information of the water project, the incoming water boundary site and the control object involved in the scheduling;

analyzing the basin water situation, the scheduling requirement, the scheduling target, the scheduling object, the project starting condition and the operation mode information;

Constructing a water engineering joint scheduling model according to the analyzed information;

when the scheduling requirements are analyzed, each river reach in the region is divided into a plurality of sections by taking the important flood control sections as nodes, and the scheduling requirements of each control section in the region are further refined by taking the allowable discharge flow of the river as a constraint condition;

when the dispatching object is analyzed, a water project consisting of a controlled reservoir, a main flow embankment and a stagnant flood storage area is taken as the dispatching object;

the conventional joint scheduling scheme of the water project is a conventional scheduling mode of a controllable reservoir, a main stream embankment and a stagnant flood storage area which are drawn up according to the current scheduling rules of the reservoir and the united scheduling application plan of the watershed water project.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein when the loss does not meet expectations or the pressure exceeds 100%, the response indicators that need to be reset include:

when the selected water project is an embankment, resetting the highest forced flood water level of the river channel of the embankment, and if the safety margin of the embankment is evaluated in advance and the upper limit value of the highest forced flood water level of the river channel of the embankment is determined, setting the highest forced flood water level of the river channel not to exceed the upper limit value;

When the selected water project is a reservoir, resetting the excess storage limit water level, the downward discharge flow or the excess storage starting flow of the reservoir;

and when the selected water project is the reserve area of the stagnant flood storage area, starting the stagnant flood storage area.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein when the selected water project is a reservoir, the current scheduling scheme is modified to increase the discharge flow of the reservoir or decrease the excess storage limit water level of the reservoir, and when the selected water project is a bank, the highest forced flood level of the riverway is decreased.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the collecting the basic data comprises:

collecting characteristic water level, water level-reservoir capacity curve, water level-discharge capacity curve, flood control dispatching mode and reservoir area water level-submerging loss relation curve information of a reservoir in a flood forecasting process;

collecting starting conditions, effective volume and volume-submerging loss relation curve information of the stagnant flood storage area;

and collecting the relation between the water level and the flow of the downstream flood control station, and ensuring the water level, the height of the top of the dike and the safety discharge.

5. The method for controlling the risk of the over-standard flood based on the mutual feedback of the scheduling effects of the water projects according to claim 1, wherein the step of drawing up a list of the water projects which can participate in the over-standard scheduling comprises the following steps:

collecting design data including reservoir pivot arrangement, buildings, electromechanical and metal structures and flood regulation calculation information and actual operation conditions of dam bodies, behind dams, spillways and water delivery culvert parts in a water project;

collecting the height of the river levee body, the terrain, the levee foundation soil layer and the situation of the existing seepage-proofing engineering measures of the river reach represented by the flood control point;

and when all the information of the water project meets the standard exceeding scheduling regulations, adding the water project into a water project list capable of participating in standard exceeding scheduling.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the calculating a disaster damage index and determining whether damage meets expectations according to the disaster damage index comprises:

calculating the number of the affected population according to the height of the submergence level and the relation between the water level and the area by combining the population average distribution rate;

calculating the affected cultivated land area according to the submerged water level elevation and the water level-area relation by combining the cultivated land area occupation ratio;

Obtaining volume loss according to the height of the submerging water level and the relation between the water level and the volume, and calculating direct economic loss according to unit volume loss;

obtaining the number of flooded important towns according to the submerged water level elevation and the relation between the water level and the disaster-bearing body loss rate;

and when any one or more of the number of the affected population, the affected cultivated land area, the direct economic loss and the number of the submerged important towns exceeds the respective corresponding disaster threshold value, judging that the loss does not meet the expectation.

7. The method for regulating and controlling the risk of the over-standard flood based on mutual feedback of scheduling effects of water engineering according to claim 1, wherein when the weighted residual defenses are sequentially ordered from large to small, if the weighted residual defenses of the dike and the reservoir are equal and the residual defenses of the reservoir are in a first interval or a second interval, the reservoir is placed in front of the dike;

the first interval is: recording the reserved flood-control storage capacity of the reservoir as a target river reach as X, and storing flood from the reservoirThe water level corresponding to the increase of the reservoir capacity X above the flood control limit water level is marked as Z₁Then Z is₁The reservoir capacity between the dead water level of the reservoir is a first interval;

the second interval is: from Z₁The storage capacity between the first section and the flood control high water level of the reservoir is a second section.

8. The method for regulating and controlling the risk of the over-standard flood based on the mutual feedback of the scheduling effects of the water projects, according to claim 1, wherein the residual defense capacities are divided into a plurality of levels according to a sequence from low to high, and when the residual defense capacities of the water projects are in the same level, the residual defense capacities of the water projects are considered to be equal.

9. The method for regulating and controlling the risk of the over-standard flood based on the mutual feedback of the water engineering scheduling effect, according to claim 8, is characterized in that the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is divided into a first level, a second level and a third level from low to high:

when the current reservoir water level is lower than the flood limit water level, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is a first level;

when the highest flood regulation level of the reservoir, which is regulated from the flood control high level of the target river reach, corresponds to the reservoir capacity which is equal to the reservoir capacity between the flood control high level of the target river reach and the flood control high level of the reservoir, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is a second level;

and when the highest flood regulation level of the reservoir, which is regulated from the flood control high level of the target river reach, corresponds to the reservoir capacity which is equal to the reservoir capacity between the flood control high level of the reservoir and the check flood level of the reservoir, the residual defense capacity of the reservoir is the third level.

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