CN114331210A - Airspace collision risk assessment method based on collision protection area - Google Patents

Airspace collision risk assessment method based on collision protection area Download PDF

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CN114331210A
CN114331210A CN202210037415.0A CN202210037415A CN114331210A CN 114331210 A CN114331210 A CN 114331210A CN 202210037415 A CN202210037415 A CN 202210037415A CN 114331210 A CN114331210 A CN 114331210A
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flight
risk
collision
time
aircraft
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施书成
董斌
张明伟
童明
丁辉
毛亿
于楠
王凯
朱姚结
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CETC 28 Research Institute
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Abstract

The invention provides an airspace collision risk assessment method based on a collision protection area, which comprises the following steps: constructing a flight plan model and a risk airspace unit model; identifying a risk airspace unit, establishing an aircraft positioning error model by adopting double-exponential distribution on the premise that each flight strictly executes a flight task according to a plan, respectively calculating the aircraft height and horizontal position positioning errors, and further obtaining the actual position of the aircraft; establishing an aircraft collision protection area according to the requirements of the safe intervals of the longitudinal direction, the transverse direction and the height of the aircraft; and quantifying the risk intensity of the airspace units with collision risks in sequence to finish airspace collision risk assessment. The method takes the flight plan as a data base, fully considers the positioning performance limit and the control interval requirement of the aircraft, realizes the objective quantification of the airspace collision risk value, and can provide a basis for the flight plan formulation, the airspace structure planning and the risk airspace identification.

Description

Airspace collision risk assessment method based on collision protection area
Technical Field
The invention relates to an airspace collision risk assessment method based on a collision protection area.
Background
With the continuous development of the air transportation industry, the air traffic operation complexity and the potential operation risk are continuously increased, and the airspace operation risk assessment is a typical multivariate correlation analysis problem and is related to various factors including the arrangement of flight plans, airspace structures, special airspace distribution and the like, so that how to perform airspace operation risk assessment becomes the current hot and difficult problem. The objective and quantitative airspace operation risk assessment plays an important role in improving the airspace operation safety and reducing the workload of controllers, and can effectively assist management personnel in making decisions such as flight plan adjustment, operation scheme design, airspace structure adjustment and the like.
At present, common airspace operation risk assessment methods include a risk assessment method based on a Reich model, a risk assessment method based on an event model, a risk assessment method based on an accident tree, and the like. The method is commonly used for analyzing the minimum interval between aircrafts, and needs to carry out ex post facto review statistics on the probability of the aircrafts violating safety interval regulations and the number of dangerous events on the premise of acquiring a large amount of historical operating data. The uncertainty of the number of the selected samples and the probability of the basic event directly influences the reliability of the evaluation result, and the obtained evaluation result represents the long-term operation risk of an airspace, so that the prediction of the potential risk cannot be carried out aiming at a typical operation scene.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: the invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing an airspace collision risk assessment method based on a collision protection area aiming at the defects of the prior art.
The invention particularly provides an airspace collision risk assessment method based on a collision protection area, which comprises the following steps of:
step 1, constructing a flight plan and risk airspace unit model;
step 2, identifying airspace units with collision risks;
step 3, constructing an aircraft positioning error model;
step 4, constructing an operation conflict severity quantification model;
and 5, calculating a collision risk assessment value.
Step 1, constructing flight plan and risk airspace unit model
In a certain airspace to be evaluated, a risk evaluation time interval is set as T, a flight plan set F is arranged in the time interval T, and the flight plan set F is made to be { F { (F)1,f2,...,fn}. Wherein f isiDenotes a flight plan with the number i, i being 1, 2. Flight plan fiComprises the following elements: flight number, sequence of waypoints, and flight order fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiInformation of each element is described as follows:
IDi: flight plan fiThe flight number of (2), the unique identifier;
PTi: flight plan fiPlanned route point sequence
Figure BDA0003468576100000021
For PTiSome element item with number k in the navigation route point
Figure BDA0003468576100000022
The elements contained therein having waypoint numbers
Figure BDA0003468576100000023
Waypoint longitude
Figure BDA0003468576100000024
Waypoint latitude
Figure BDA0003468576100000025
Waypoint height
Figure BDA0003468576100000026
Flight fiTime window of occupancy at waypoints
Figure BDA0003468576100000027
Respectively representing flights fiA start time and an end time of the elapsed time at the waypoint. For convenient calculation and expression, the waypoints are combined
Figure BDA0003468576100000028
The longitude and latitude positions are projected to the horizontal plane to form the horizontal and vertical coordinates
Figure BDA0003468576100000029
This means that, as follows, it is possible to set:
Figure BDA00034685761000000210
Li: flight plan fiPlanned flight sequence
Figure BDA00034685761000000211
For LiWherein a certain number is k element terms, i.e. flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000212
The included elements having segment numbers
Figure BDA00034685761000000213
Horizontal coordinate of starting point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000214
Longitudinal coordinate of starting point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000215
Altitude of starting point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000216
Horizontal coordinate of terminal point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000217
Longitudinal coordinate of flight segment end point
Figure BDA00034685761000000218
Altitude of terminal point of flight
Figure BDA00034685761000000219
Course of course
Figure BDA00034685761000000220
The time window occupied by the flight in the flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000221
Respectively representing flights fiThe starting time and the ending time of the occupation time at the stretch. Therefore, it is possible to provide:
Figure BDA00034685761000000222
the airspace unit with the collision risk comprises a risk waypoint and a risk segment. Let the set of waypoints at risk of collision be RT ═ { RT1,rt2,...,rtnRt for the term where the number is i elementiComprisingElements have waypoint numbers, conflicting flights, conflicting time ranges, i.e.
Figure BDA00034685761000000223
The information of each element is described as follows:
Ni: numbering waypoints;
fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000031
two flight plans with a risk of collision;
Trstart: flight fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000032
A starting time at which there is a risk of collision;
Trend: flight fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000033
There is a termination time of the collision risk.
Let the set of legs at risk of collision be RL ═ RL1,rl2,...,rlnFor the element entries rl in which the number is iiThe elements included are: conflict leg number, conflict flight, conflict time range, namely:
Figure BDA0003468576100000034
the information of each element is described as follows:
Figure BDA0003468576100000035
two leg numbers with collision risk.
Step 2, airspace unit identification with collision risk
The airspace unit identification with the collision risk comprises two parts of waypoint identification with the collision risk and leg identification with the collision risk.
Step 2-1, identifying the waypoints with collision risks:
if a risk assessment time period is set as T, in the airspace to be assessed, if a plurality of flights pass through the same waypoint in a short time, the waypoint may have a collision risk. In flight plan set F ═ { F { (F) }1,f2,...,fnIn the method, n represents the number of flight plans, a flight plan index is set as i, the initial value of i is set as 1, and the step 2-1-1 is executed.
Step 2-1-1, flight f with index i is obtainediIs provided with fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiThe waypoint sequence of
Figure BDA0003468576100000036
Wherein p represents the number of waypoints, the waypoint index is k, and the initial value is 1. For waypoints
Figure BDA0003468576100000037
Get
Figure BDA0003468576100000038
Waypoint numbering of
Figure BDA0003468576100000039
Flight fiAt waypoints
Figure BDA00034685761000000310
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA00034685761000000311
Performing step 2-1-2;
step 2-1-2, traversing the flight plan set F' ═ { F1,f2,...,fn}-{fiAnd f, setting a flight plan index as j, setting an initial value as j as i +1, and taking a flight plan fjMaking the waypoint index m equal to 1, and traversing the waypoint sequence in the plan
Figure BDA00034685761000000312
If there is a waypoint
Figure BDA00034685761000000313
And waypoints in step 2-1-1
Figure BDA00034685761000000314
If the same waypoint is available, the flight f is takenjAt waypoints
Figure BDA00034685761000000315
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA00034685761000000316
Executing the step 2-1-3, otherwise, continuously traversing the flight plan set F ', making j equal to j +1, repeatedly executing the step 2-1-2 until all flights in the F' are traversed, and executing the step 2-1-4;
step 2-1-3, if flight fjIs numbered as
Figure BDA0003468576100000041
Time window of occupation at waypoints
Figure BDA0003468576100000042
And the time window in step 2-1-1
Figure BDA0003468576100000043
If there is an overlap, flight fiWith flight fjThere is a risk of collision, the collision time range TrangeComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003468576100000044
order to
Figure BDA0003468576100000045
And mixing rtiAdded to the set of waypoints RT at risk of collision. Returning to the step 2-1-2;
and 2-1-4, enabling the waypoint index k to be k +1 and pointing to the next waypoint. If k is less than or equal to p, returning to the step 2-1-1; if k is>p, then flight fiThe identification of the waypoints with the risk of collision is finished, and the flight index i is made equal toAnd i +1, returning to the step 2-1-1 until i is more than or equal to n, and finishing the identification of the risk waypoints of all flights.
Step 2-2, segment identification with collision risk
Setting the risk evaluation time period as T, and if the distance between a flight segment of a flight and other flight segments is less than a certain safety value D in the airspace to be evaluatedsAnd the running times are overlapped, the flights on the adjacent flight sections have collision risks. In flight plan set F ═ { F { (F) }1,f2,...,fnIn the method, n represents the number of flight plans, a flight plan index is set as i, the initial value of i is set as 1, and the step 2-2-1 is executed.
Step 2-2-1, flight f with index i is obtainediIs provided with fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiThe flight segment sequence of
Figure BDA0003468576100000046
Where p represents the number of flight segments. Let the navigation segment index be k and the initial value be 1. For flight segment
Figure BDA0003468576100000047
Get
Figure BDA0003468576100000048
Waypoint numbering of
Figure BDA0003468576100000049
Flight fiIn the voyage
Figure BDA00034685761000000410
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA00034685761000000411
Performing step 2-2-2;
step 2-2-2, traversing the flight plan set F' ═ { F1,f2,...,fn}-{fiAnd f, setting a flight plan index as j, setting an initial value as j as i +1, and taking a flight plan fjAnd traversing the segment sequence in the plan by setting the segment index as m to 1
Figure BDA00034685761000000412
If there is a certain flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000000413
And the flight segment in the step 2-2-1
Figure BDA00034685761000000414
Is less than DsThen get the flight fjIn the voyage
Figure BDA00034685761000000415
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA00034685761000000416
Executing the step 2-2-3, otherwise, continuously traversing the flight plan set F ', making j equal to j +1, repeatedly executing the step 2-2-2 until all flights in the F' are traversed, and executing the step 2-2-4;
step 2-2-3, if flight fjIn the voyage
Figure BDA0003468576100000051
Time window occupied by
Figure BDA0003468576100000052
And the time window in the step 2-2-1
Figure BDA0003468576100000053
If there is an overlap, flight fiWith flight fjThere is a potential risk of collision, and the collision time range is:
Figure BDA0003468576100000054
order to
Figure BDA0003468576100000055
And will rliTo the set of legs RL where there is a security risk. Returning to the step 2-2-2;
step 2-2-4, making waypoint index k equal to k +1 and pointing toIf k is less than or equal to p, returning to the step 2-2-1; if k is>p, then flight fiAnd (4) ending the identification of the segment with the potential operation risk, making the flight index i equal to i +1, and returning to the step 2-2-1 until i is larger than or equal to n, and ending the identification of the segment with the potential risk of all flights.
Step 3, constructing an aircraft positioning error model
In the actual operation process of the aircraft, due to the performance limitation of the positioning equipment, an error often exists between the actual position and the nominal position. The invention describes the relationship between the nominal position and the actual position of the aircraft by using a positioning error model.
Setting the aircraft to strictly execute the flight plan, namely setting the nominal position of the aircraft to be consistent with the scheduled flight position during the flight mission execution of the aircraft, and the horizontal position positioning error of the aircraft to be subject to the position parameter muLWith a scale parameter of λLThe height position positioning error obeys a position parameter muHWith a scale parameter of λHA double exponential distribution of (a). Wherein the parameter muL、λL、μH、λHThe value of (a) can be deduced by methods such as maximum likelihood method based on historical samples of the positioning equipment.
Aircraft fiNominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000056
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000057
And (5) executing the step 3-1 to the step 3-2.
Step 3-1, determining the actual height of the aircraft, specifically comprising:
step 3-1-1, generating random numbers u between (0,1) by adopting uniform distribution;
step 3-1-2, let height positioning error value Δ H ═ μH-λHsgn (u-0.5) ln (1-2| u-0.5 |); wherein sgn (x) is a step function, and
Figure BDA0003468576100000058
step 3-1-3, aircraft fiActual height at time t
Figure BDA0003468576100000059
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA00034685761000000510
step 3-2, determining the actual horizontal position of the aircraft, specifically comprising:
step 3-2-1, generating random numbers u between (0,1) by adopting uniform distribution;
step 3-2-2, let the horizontal positioning error value Δ L ═ μL-λLsgn (u-0.5) ln (1-2| u-0.5|), wherein sgn (x) is a step function, consistent with the definition in step 3-1-2;
step 3-2-3, aircraft fiThe actual abscissa position at time t is set as
Figure BDA0003468576100000061
The actual ordinate position is
Figure BDA0003468576100000062
Thus, an aircraft f is obtainediActual position at time t
Figure BDA0003468576100000063
Step 4, constructing a conflict severity quantification model, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step 4-1, constructing an aircraft collision protection area:
in the civil aircraft flight accident sign, the civil aircraft has a flight stage of a route (flight route), wherein the longitudinal interval between aircraft is less than 3000m, the transverse interval is less than 3000m, and the vertical interval is less than 1000m, which is regarded as the approach of danger; in the navigation flight, the height difference of the two aircrafts is less than 50m, meanwhile, the longitudinal interval is less than 200m, the transverse interval is less than 100m, and the risk approach is tried, and the like, so that the cuboid protection area model can be established by taking the aircrafts as centers according to the safety interval requirements for different types of aircrafts in different flight stages in combination with the requirements of the regulations.
Step 4-1-1, setting an aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000064
There is a risk of collision, and fi rThe actual position at time t is
Figure BDA0003468576100000065
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000066
The actual position at time t is
Figure BDA0003468576100000067
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000068
Respectively at longitudinal safety intervals DVsTransverse safety interval DCsHeight interval DHsEstablishing a cuboid protection area model for the length, the width and the height;
step 4-1-2, during operation, if the zones of protection overlap, it is not a safety risk between the aircraft, i.e. if the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure BDA0003468576100000069
satisfies the following conditions:
Figure BDA00034685761000000610
then the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure BDA00034685761000000611
with risk of collision, overlapping partial volumes of the zones of protection
Figure BDA00034685761000000612
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA00034685761000000613
and is
Figure BDA00034685761000000614
The larger the value of (c), the greater the corresponding severity of the conflict.
Step 4-2, calculating the severity of the operation conflict:
the artificial potential field method is a commonly used path planning algorithm, and the size of the attractive force and the repulsive force borne by an intelligent agent is measured by the distance from a force field source through establishing a virtual force field.
Step 4-2-1, quantifying the conflict severity degree according to the size of the overlapped volume of the aircraft protection area by using the idea of an artificial potential field method, and defining the conflict severity degree Fx of the aircraft as follows:
Figure BDA0003468576100000071
wherein
Figure BDA0003468576100000072
Representing the size of the space occupied by the two aircraft protection zones, Vi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000073
Respectively an aircraft fi、fjThe collision protection zone of, and
Figure BDA0003468576100000074
Figure BDA0003468576100000075
is the overlapped part volume of the two aircrafts,
Figure BDA0003468576100000076
ρ0representing the space occupied by the protection area when two flights have no collision risk, wherein eta is a proportional gain coefficient;
step 4-2-2, determining a value of a proportional gain coefficient eta:
the unit of measure defining the severity of the conflict is: the number of fatal accidents. Since the spatial risk value is often described as "number of fatal accidents per unit time", the spatial risk value can be considered as an integral of the severity of the collision over time. The following steps are carried out:
step 4-2-2-1 setting aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000077
A collision occurs at time t, i.e. a fatal accident occurs, indicating that the severity of the collision Fx is 1, and the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure BDA0003468576100000078
the actual positions coincide, at which time
Figure BDA0003468576100000079
Step 4-2-2-2 where Fx ═ 1,
Figure BDA00034685761000000710
Substituting the calculated formula of the severity of the aircraft conflict to obtain a positive proportional gain coefficient eta of 2 (V)i r)3。
On the basis of obtaining the value of the proportional gain coefficient eta, according to the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000000711
The actual position and the volume of the overlap of the protection area, the actual collision severity Fx of the aircraft can be obtained by the formula in step 4-2-1.
Step 5-1, calculating the operation risk of the waypoints:
on the basis of obtaining the spatial domain units with collision risks through the step 2, respectively corresponding to RT ═ { RT ═ RT1,rt2,...,rtn}、RL＝{rl1,rl2,...,rlnAnd calculating the operation risk value in the time interval T, wherein the operation risk of the airspace to be evaluated is the sum of the operation risk of the waypoint and the operation risk of the flight section.
Step 5-1, calculating the operation risk of the waypoints:
set of waypoints RT ═ { RT ] at risk of collision1,rt2,...,rtnIn the method, an element item index is set as i, an initial value is set as 1, and unit time for quantifying the operation conflict degree is set as TunitI.e. with TunitFor the step length of time versus rtiAnd calculating the operation collision degree of the aircraft with the collision risk, and setting the initial value of the operation risk of the waypoint in the time period T in unit time as R-0. The following steps are carried out:
step 5-1-1, according to the index i value, taking RT ═ { RT ═ RT1,rt2,...,rtnSpace domain unit with risk in
Figure BDA0003468576100000081
A time variable T is set, and the initial value T is equal to TrstartExecuting the step 5-1-2;
step 5-1-2, taking the aircraft f according to the flight plani rNominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000082
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000083
Aircraft
Figure BDA0003468576100000084
Nominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000085
Course of course
Figure BDA0003468576100000086
Step 3 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000087
The actual position is
Figure BDA0003468576100000088
Performing step 5-1-3;
step 5-1-3, obtaining the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000089
On the basis of the actual position, step 4 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000000810
The degree of operational conflict at time t is Fx. Setting the length of the time interval T as T according to the definition of the operation risk value and the integrallenIf the unit time operation risk value R of the waypoint in the time interval T is R + (Fx · T)unit)/TlenExecuting the steps 5-1-4;
step 5-1-4, let T be T + TunitIf T is then ≦ TrendContinuing to execute the step 5-1-2; if t is>TrendSpatial domain unit rt with collision riskiAnd (4) finishing the calculation of the running safety risk in the time period T, enabling the element item index i of the set RT to be i +1, and if i is less than or equal to n, performing the next airspace unit RT with the collision risk in the set RTiCalculating a risk value, and executing the step 5-1-1; if i>And n, completing calculation of the operation risk value of the waypoints in the time interval T.
Step 5-2, calculating the operation risk of the flight segment:
setting the initial value of the flight segment operation risk in the time period T as R '═ 0, and setting the unit time for quantizing the flight segment operation conflict degree as T'unitFor the set of legs RL where there is a risk of collision { RL1,rl2,...,rlnAnd calculating an operation risk value, and setting the initial value of the operation risk of the flight segment in the time period T at the unit time to be R' to 0. The following steps are carried out:
step 5-2-1, taking RL { RL according to the index i value1,rl2,...,rlnSpace domain unit with risk in
Figure BDA0003468576100000091
A time variable T is set, and the initial value T is equal to TrstartExecuting the step 5-2-2;
step 5-2-2, taking the aircraft f according to the flight plani rNominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000092
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000093
Aircraft
Figure BDA0003468576100000094
Nominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000095
Course of course
Figure BDA0003468576100000096
Step 3 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000097
The actual positions are respectively
Figure BDA0003468576100000098
Performing step 5-2-3;
step 5-2-3, obtaining the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000099
On the basis of the actual position, step 4 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000000910
The degree of operational conflict at time t is Fx. Setting the length of the time interval T as T according to the definition of the operation risk value and the integrallenAnd the running risk value R ' per unit time of the waypoint in the period T is R ' + (Fx T 'unit)/TlenExecuting the step 5-2-4;
step 5-2-4, let T ═ T + T'unitIf T is then ≦ TrendContinuing to execute the step 5-2-2; if it is nott>TrendSpace domain unit rl with collision riskiAnd when the running safety risk calculation in the time period T is finished, making the element item index i of the set RL be i +1, and if i is less than or equal to n, performing collision risk calculation on the next airspace unit RL in the set RLiCalculating a risk value, and executing the step 5-2-1; if i>And n, completing calculation of the flight segment operation risk value in the time period T. 5-3, calculating the airspace operation risk:
after the calculation of the operation risk of the waypoints and the flight segments in the step 5-1 and the step 5-2 is completed, the operation risk value R of the space in the time period T can be finally obtainedvIs the sum of the collision risk of waypoints and the collision risk of legs, namely Rv＝R+R′。
Has the advantages that: the method takes the flight plan as a data base, analyzes the flight plan in the airspace to be evaluated to identify the risk airspace unit, analyzes the positioning error of the aircraft aiming at each airspace unit with potential collision risk, establishes an aircraft collision protection area, and quantifies the operation risk. The obtained operation risk assessment value is objective and effective, and can provide a basis for flight planning, airspace structure planning and risk airspace identification.
Drawings
The foregoing and/or other advantages of the invention will become further apparent from the following detailed description of the invention when taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an airspace operational risk assessment algorithm;
FIG. 2 is a statistical chart of the number of flights in a terminal area of an airport and the identification results of airspace units with collision risks;
FIG. 3 is a comparison statistical chart of the operation risk assessment value and the overlap time of the collision protection area in a certain airport terminal area;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a spatial domain unit identification method with collision risk.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a risk assessment method, which specifically includes the following steps.
Step 1, constructing flight plan and risk airspace unit model
In a certain airspace to be evaluated, a risk evaluation time interval is set as T, a flight plan set F is arranged in the time interval T, and the flight plan set F is made to be { F { (F)1,f2,...,fn}. Wherein f isiAnd (i ═ 1, 2.., n) denotes the flight plan numbered i. Flight plan fiThe elements to be included are: flight number, sequence of waypoints, and flight order fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiInformation of each element is described as follows:
IDi: flight plan fiThe flight number of (2), the unique identifier;
PTi: flight plan fiPlanned route point sequence
Figure BDA0003468576100000101
For PTiSome element item with number k in the navigation route point
Figure BDA0003468576100000102
The elements contained therein having waypoint numbers
Figure BDA0003468576100000103
Waypoint longitude
Figure BDA0003468576100000104
Waypoint latitude
Figure BDA0003468576100000105
Waypoint height
Figure BDA0003468576100000106
Flight fiTime window of occupancy at waypoints
Figure BDA0003468576100000107
Respectively representing flights fiA start time and an end time of the elapsed time at the waypoint. For convenient calculation and expression, the waypoints are combined
Figure BDA0003468576100000108
The longitude and latitude positions are projected to the horizontal plane to form the horizontal and vertical coordinates
Figure BDA0003468576100000109
This means that, as follows, it is possible to set:
Figure BDA00034685761000001010
Li: flight plan fiPlanned flight sequence
Figure BDA00034685761000001011
For LiWherein a certain number is k element terms, i.e. flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001012
The included elements having segment numbers
Figure BDA00034685761000001013
Horizontal coordinate of starting point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001014
Longitudinal coordinate of starting point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001015
Altitude of starting point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001016
Horizontal coordinate of terminal point of flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001017
Longitudinal coordinate of flight segment end point
Figure BDA00034685761000001018
Altitude of terminal point of flight
Figure BDA00034685761000001019
Course of course
Figure BDA00034685761000001020
Flight is onThe time window occupied by the flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001021
Respectively representing flights fiThe starting time and the ending time of the occupation time at the stretch. Therefore, it is possible to provide:
Figure BDA00034685761000001022
the airspace unit with the collision risk comprises a risk waypoint and a risk segment. Let the set of waypoints at risk of collision be RT ═ { RT1,rt2,...,rtnRt for the term where the number is i elementiThe factors to be included are waypoint number, conflicting flight number, conflicting time range, i.e.
Figure BDA00034685761000001023
The information of each element is described as follows:
Ni: numbering waypoints;
fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000111
flight plans with collision risk;
Trstart: flight fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000112
A starting time at which there is a risk of collision;
Trend: flight fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000113
There is a termination time of the collision risk.
Let the set of legs at risk of collision be RL ═ RL1,rl2,...,rlnFor the element entries rl in which the number is iiThe elements to be included are: number of conflicting flight segments, conflicting flight, conflicting time range, i.e.
Figure BDA0003468576100000114
The information of each element is described as follows:
Figure BDA0003468576100000115
segment numbers with collision risk;
fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000116
flight plans with collision risk;
Trstart: flight fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000117
A starting time at which there is a risk of collision;
Trend: flight fi r，
Figure BDA0003468576100000118
There is a termination time of the collision risk.
Step 2, airspace unit identification with collision risk
The airspace unit identification with the collision risk comprises two parts of waypoint identification with the collision risk and leg identification with the collision risk.
Step 2-1, identifying waypoints with collision risk
And setting the risk evaluation time period as T, wherein in the airspace to be evaluated, if a plurality of flights pass through the same waypoint in a short time, the waypoint may have collision risk. In flight plan set F ═ { F { (F) }1,f2,...,fnIn the method, n represents the number of flight plans, a flight plan index is set as i, the initial value of i is set as 1, and the step 2-1-1 is executed.
Step 2-1-1, flight f with index i is obtainediIs provided with fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiThe waypoint sequence of
Figure BDA0003468576100000119
Wherein p represents the number of waypoints, the waypoint index is k, and the initial value is 1. For waypoints
Figure BDA00034685761000001110
Get
Figure BDA00034685761000001111
Waypoint numbering of
Figure BDA00034685761000001112
Flight fiAt waypoints
Figure BDA00034685761000001113
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA00034685761000001114
Performing step 2-1-2;
step 2-1-2, traversing the flight plan set F' ═ { F1,f2,...,fn}-{fiAnd f, setting a flight plan index as j, setting an initial value as j as i +1, and taking a flight plan fjMaking the waypoint index m equal to 1, and traversing the waypoint sequence in the plan
Figure BDA0003468576100000121
If there is a waypoint
Figure BDA0003468576100000122
And waypoints in step 2-1-1
Figure BDA0003468576100000123
If the same waypoint is available, the flight f is takenjAt waypoints
Figure BDA0003468576100000124
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA0003468576100000125
Performing steps 2-1-3Otherwise, continuously traversing the flight plan set F ', making j equal to j +1, repeatedly executing the step 2-1-2 until all flights in the F' are traversed, and executing the step 2-1-4;
step 2-1-3, if flight fjIs numbered as
Figure BDA0003468576100000126
Time window of occupation at waypoints
Figure BDA0003468576100000127
And the time window in step 2-1-1
Figure BDA0003468576100000128
If there is an overlap, flight fiWith flight fjThere is a risk of collision, with a collision time range of:
Figure BDA0003468576100000129
order to
Figure BDA00034685761000001210
And mixing rtiAdded to the set of waypoints RT at risk of collision. Returning to the step 2-1-2;
and 2-1-4, enabling the waypoint index k to be k +1 and pointing to the next waypoint. If k is less than or equal to p, returning to the step 2-1-1; if k is>p, then flight fiThe identification of the waypoints with collision risks is finished, the flight index i is made to be i +1, the step 2-1-1 is returned, and the identification of the dangerous waypoints of all flights is finished until i is larger than or equal to n.
Step 2-2, segment identification with collision risk
Setting the risk evaluation time period as T, and if the distance between a flight segment of a flight and other flight segments is less than a certain safety value D in the airspace to be evaluatedsAnd the running times are overlapped, the flights on the adjacent flight sections have collision risks. In flight plan set F ═ { F { (F) }1,f2,...,fnIn the method, n represents the number of flight plans, a flight plan index is set as i, the initial value of i is set as 1, and the step 2-2-1 is executed.
Step 2-2-1, flight f with index i is obtainediIs provided with fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiThe flight segment sequence of
Figure BDA00034685761000001211
Where p represents the number of flight segments. Let the navigation segment index be k and the initial value be 1. For flight segment
Figure BDA00034685761000001212
Get
Figure BDA00034685761000001213
Waypoint numbering of
Figure BDA00034685761000001214
Flight fiIn the voyage
Figure BDA00034685761000001215
Occupied time window of
Figure BDA00034685761000001216
Performing step 2-2-2;
step 2-2-2, traversing the flight plan set F' ═ { F1,f2,...,fn}-{fiAnd f, setting a flight plan index as j, setting an initial value as j as i +1, and taking a flight plan fjAnd traversing the segment sequence in the plan by setting the segment index as m to 1
Figure BDA0003468576100000131
If there is a certain flight segment
Figure BDA0003468576100000132
And the flight segment in the step 2-2-1
Figure BDA0003468576100000133
Is less than DsThen get the flight fjIn the voyage
Figure BDA0003468576100000134
Time window occupied byIs composed of
Figure BDA0003468576100000135
Executing the step 2-2-3, otherwise, continuously traversing the flight plan set F ', making j equal to j +1, repeatedly executing the step 2-2-2 until all flights in the F' are traversed, and executing the step 2-2-4;
step 2-2-3, if flight fjIn the voyage
Figure BDA0003468576100000136
Time window occupied by
Figure BDA0003468576100000137
And the time window in the step 2-2-1
Figure BDA0003468576100000138
If there is an overlap, flight fiWith flight fjThere is a potential risk of collision, and the collision time range is:
Figure BDA0003468576100000139
order to
Figure BDA00034685761000001310
And will rliTo the set of legs RL where there is a security risk. Returning to the step 2-2-2;
and 2-2-4, enabling the waypoint index k to be k +1 and pointing to the next waypoint. If k is less than or equal to p, returning to the step 2-2-1; if k is>p, then flight fiAnd (4) ending the identification of the segment with the potential operation risk, making the flight index i equal to i +1, and returning to the step 2-2-1 until i is larger than or equal to n, and ending the identification of the segment with the potential risk of all flights.
Step 3, constructing an aircraft positioning error model
In the actual operation process of the aircraft, due to the performance limitation of the positioning equipment, an error often exists between the actual position and the nominal position. The invention describes the relationship between the nominal position and the actual position of the aircraft by using a positioning error model.
Setting strict execution of flight for aircraftPlanning, i.e. the nominal position of the aircraft during the execution of a flight mission coincides with the planned position of the flight, and the aircraft horizontal position positioning error obeys a position parameter μLWith a scale parameter of λLThe height position positioning error obeys a position parameter muHWith a scale parameter of λHA double exponential distribution of (a). Wherein the parameter muL、λL、μH、λHThe value of (a) can be deduced by methods such as maximum likelihood method based on historical samples of the positioning equipment.
Aircraft fiNominal position at time t of
Figure BDA00034685761000001311
Course is
Figure BDA00034685761000001312
And (5) executing the step 3-1 to the step 3-2.
Step 3-1, determining the actual height of the aircraft
Step 3-1-1, generating random numbers u between (0,1) by adopting uniform distribution;
step 3-1-2, let height positioning error value Δ H ═ μH-λHsgn (u-0.5) ln (1-2| u-0.5 |); wherein sgn (x) is a step function, and
Figure BDA0003468576100000141
step 3-1-3, aircraft fiActual height at time t:
Figure BDA0003468576100000142
step 3-2, determining the actual horizontal position of the aircraft
Step 3-2-1, generating random numbers u between (0,1) by adopting uniform distribution;
step 3-2-2, let the horizontal positioning error value Δ L ═ μL-λLsgn (u-0.5) ln (1-2| u-0.5|), wherein sgn (x) is a step function, consistent with the definition in step 3-1-2;
in the step 3-2-3,aircraft fiThe actual abscissa position at time t is set as
Figure BDA0003468576100000143
The actual ordinate position is
Figure BDA0003468576100000144
Thus, an aircraft f is obtainediActual position at time t
Figure BDA0003468576100000145
Step 4, constructing a conflict severity quantification model
Step 4-1, constructing an aircraft collision protection area
In the civil aircraft flight accident sign, the civil aircraft has a flight stage of a route (flight route), wherein the longitudinal interval between aircraft is less than 3000m, the transverse interval is less than 3000m, and the vertical interval is less than 1000m, which is regarded as the approach of danger; in the navigation flight, the height difference of the two aircrafts is less than 50m, meanwhile, the longitudinal interval is less than 200m, the transverse interval is less than 100m, and the risk approach is tried, and the like, so that the cuboid protection area model can be established by taking the aircrafts as centers according to the safety interval requirements for different types of aircrafts in different flight stages in combination with the requirements of the regulations.
Step 4-1-1, setting an aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000146
There is a risk of collision, and fi rThe actual position at time t is
Figure BDA0003468576100000147
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000148
The actual position at time t is
Figure BDA0003468576100000149
Course is
Figure BDA00034685761000001410
Respectively at longitudinal safety intervals DVsTransverse safety interval DCsHeight interval DHsEstablishing a cuboid protection area model for the length, the width and the height;
and 4-1-2, in the operation process, if the protection zones are overlapped, the fact that operation conflict exists between the aircrafts is meant. If the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure BDA00034685761000001411
satisfies the following conditions:
Figure BDA0003468576100000151
then the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure BDA0003468576100000152
there is a risk of collision, and the volume of the overlapping part of the protection zones is:
Figure BDA0003468576100000153
and is
Figure BDA0003468576100000154
The larger the value of (c), the greater the corresponding severity of the conflict.
Step 4-2, running conflict severity calculation
The artificial potential field method is a commonly used path planning algorithm, and the size of the attractive force and the repulsive force borne by an intelligent agent is measured by the distance from a force field source through establishing a virtual force field.
Step 4-2-1, quantifying the collision severity by the size of the coincidence volume of the aircraft protection area by using the thought of an artificial potential field method, and defining the collision severity of the aircraft as follows:
Figure BDA0003468576100000155
wherein
Figure BDA0003468576100000156
Representing the size of the space occupied by the two aircraft protection zones, Vi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000157
Respectively an aircraft fi、fjThe collision protection zone of, and
Figure BDA0003468576100000158
Figure BDA0003468576100000159
is the overlapped part volume of the two aircrafts,
Figure BDA00034685761000001510
representing the space occupied by the protection area when two flights have no collision risk, wherein eta is a proportional gain coefficient;
step 4-2-2, determining the value of the positive proportional gain coefficient eta
The unit of measure defining the severity of the conflict is: the number of fatal accidents. Since the spatial risk value is often described as "number of fatal accidents per unit time", the spatial risk value can be considered as an integral of the severity of the collision over time.
Step 4-2-2-1 setting aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000001511
A collision occurs at time t, i.e. a fatal accident occurs, meaning that the severity of the collision Fx is 1, and the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure BDA00034685761000001512
the actual positions coincide, at which time
Figure BDA00034685761000001513
Step 4-2-2-2 where Fx ═ 1,
Figure BDA00034685761000001514
Substituting the calculated formula of the severity of the aircraft conflict to obtain a positive proportional gain coefficient eta of 2 (V)i r)3。
On the basis of obtaining the value of the proportional gain coefficient eta, according to the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000001515
The actual position and the volume of the overlap of the protection area, the actual collision severity Fx of the aircraft can be obtained by the formula in step 4-2-1.
Step 5, calculating an airspace operation risk assessment value:
on the basis of obtaining the spatial domain units with collision risks through the step 2, respectively corresponding to RT ═ { RT ═ RT1,rt2,...,rtn}、RL＝{rl1,rl2,...,rlnAnd calculating the operation risk value in the time interval T, wherein the operation risk of the airspace to be evaluated is the sum of the operation risk of the waypoint and the operation risk of the flight section.
Step 5-1, calculating the operation risk of waypoints
Set of waypoints RT ═ { RT ] at risk of collision1,rt2,...,rtnIn the method, an element item index is set as i, an initial value is set as 1, and unit time for quantifying the operation conflict degree is set as TunitI.e. with TunitFor the step length of time versus rtiAnd calculating the operation collision degree of the aircraft with the collision risk, and setting the initial value of the operation risk of the waypoint in the time period T in unit time as R-0.
Step 5-1-1, according to the index i value, taking RT ═ { RT ═ RT1,rt2,...,rtnSpace domain unit with risk in
Figure BDA0003468576100000161
A time variable T is set, and the initial value T is equal to TrstartExecuting the step 5-1-2;
step 5-1-2, taking the aircraft f according to the flight plani rNominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000162
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000163
Aircraft
Figure BDA0003468576100000164
Nominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000165
Course of course
Figure BDA0003468576100000166
Step 3 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000167
The actual position is
Figure BDA0003468576100000168
Performing step 5-1-3;
step 5-1-3, obtaining the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000169
On the basis of the actual position, step 4 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000001610
The degree of operational conflict at time t is Fx. Setting the length of the time interval T as T according to the definition of the operation risk value and the integrallenIf the unit time operation risk value R of the waypoint in the time interval T is R + (Fx · T)unit)/TlenExecuting the steps 5-1-4;
step 5-1-4, let T be T + TunitIf T is less than or equal to T at the momentrendContinuing to execute the step 5-1-2; if t>TrendSpatial domain unit rt with collision riskiAnd ending the running safety risk calculation in the time period T, and enabling the element item index i of the set RT to be i + 1. If i is less than or equal to n, pairSpatial domain unit RT with collision risk next in set RTiCalculating a risk value, and executing the step 5-1-1; if i>And n, completing calculation of the operation risk value of the waypoints in the time interval T.
Step 5-2, calculating the operation risk of the voyage section
Setting the initial value of the flight segment operation risk in the time period T as R '═ 0, and setting the unit time for quantizing the flight segment operation conflict degree as T'unitFor the set of legs RL where there is a risk of collision { RL1,rl2,...,rlnAnd calculating an operation risk value. And setting the initial value of the unit-time operation risk of the flight segment in the time period T to be 0. The following steps are carried out:
step 5-2-1, taking RL { RL according to the index i value1,rl2,...,rlnSpace domain unit with risk in
Figure BDA0003468576100000171
A time variable T is set, and the initial value T is equal to TrstartExecuting the step 5-2-2;
step 5-2-2, taking the aircraft f according to the flight plani rNominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000172
Course is
Figure BDA0003468576100000173
Aircraft
Figure BDA0003468576100000174
Nominal position at time t of
Figure BDA0003468576100000175
Course of course
Figure BDA0003468576100000176
Step 3 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000177
The actual position is
Figure BDA0003468576100000178
Performing step 5-2-3;
step 5-2-3, obtaining the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA0003468576100000179
On the basis of the actual position, step 4 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure BDA00034685761000001710
The degree of operational conflict at time t is Fx. Setting the length of the time interval T as T according to the definition of the operation risk value and the integrallenIf the unit time running risk value R 'of the waypoint in the time period T is R' + (Fx · T)u′nit)/TlenExecuting the step 5-2-4;
step 5-2-4, let T ═ T + T'unitIf T is then ≦ TrendContinuing to execute the step 5-2-2; if t is>TrendSpace domain unit rl with collision riskiAnd when the running safety risk calculation in the time period T is finished, making the element item index i of the set RL be i +1, and if i is less than or equal to n, performing collision risk calculation on the next airspace unit RL in the set RLiCalculating a risk value, and executing the step 5-2-1; if i>And n, completing calculation of the flight segment operation risk value in the time period T.
Step 5-3, calculating airspace operation risk
After the calculation of the waypoint and flight segment operation risks in the step 5-1 and the step 5-2 is completed, the finally obtained value of the operation risk of the area in the time period T is the sum of the waypoint collision risk and the flight segment collision risk, namely Rv＝R+R′。
The method is adopted to carry out collision risk assessment on the incoming and outgoing flights in a terminal area of an airport, and the verification process is as follows:
and (3) identifying a risk airspace unit:
and in the time period of 7: 00-22: 00, taking hour (h) as unit time, randomly generating the incoming and outgoing flights in the airport terminal area by adopting probability distribution, and allocating air lines, take-off and landing time and air way point/air section occupation time for each flight. And traversing and comparing the flight plans in sequence, and identifying and counting the airspace units with possible collision risks. The statistics of flight number and space domain unit with collision risk in each time period are shown in fig. 2.
Parameter configuration:
horizontal positioning error obeying position parameter mu of design and aircraftL0km, scale parameter λLA double exponential distribution of 0.017km, the height position positioning error obeys the position parameter muH0km, scale parameter λHDouble exponential distribution of 0.005 km. Prescription of civil aircraft signs of flight accidents: in the approach flight stage, the longitudinal interval is less than 2000m, the transverse interval is less than 1000m, and the approach is dangerous when the vertical interval is less than 100 m. Thus setting the longitudinal safety distance DV of the aircraft collision protection zones2km, transverse safety interval DCs1km, height interval DHs＝0.1km，ρ0＝0.4km3. When two aircrafts collide, namely the collision risk strength Fx is 1, the space occupied by the two aircrafts has the size rho of 0.2km3According to the formula
Figure BDA0003468576100000181
The proportional gain coefficient η is calculated to be 0.016.
Calculation of a collision risk evaluation value:
unit time T to make intensity quantification of riskunitAnd (4) carrying out collision severity estimation on the airspace units with collision risks in a time-sharing mode when the time is 1 s-1/3600 h. Sequentially calculating T for the spatial domain units with collision risk in each time intervalunitThe collision severity is quantified and integrated for the step size to obtain a collision risk assessment value, and the duration of the overlap time of the collision protection zones is recorded, as shown in fig. 3.
As can be seen from fig. 2, 3, and 4, the total length of the overlap time of the collision protection zones, the number of airspace units having a collision risk, and the risk assessment value have a positive correlation. Therefore, the algorithm achieves objective quantification of the collision risk value of the flight plan of the airport terminal area.
The invention provides an airspace collision risk assessment method based on a collision protection area, and a plurality of methods and ways for implementing the technical scheme, the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, without departing from the principle of the invention, several improvements and decorations can be made, and these improvements and decorations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the invention. All the components not specified in the present embodiment can be realized by the prior art.

Claims (10)

1. An airspace collision risk assessment method based on a collision protection area is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, constructing a flight plan and risk airspace unit model;
step 2, identifying airspace units with collision risks;
step 3, constructing an aircraft positioning error model;
step 4, constructing a conflict severity quantification model;
and 5, calculating a collision risk assessment value.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein step 1 comprises:
in the airspace to be evaluated, a risk evaluation time interval is set as T, a flight plan set F is arranged in the time interval T, and the flight plan set F is made to be { F { (F)1,f2,...,fnIn which fiDenotes a flight plan with the number i, i being 1, 2. Flight plan fiComprises the following elements: flight number, sequence of waypoints, and flight order fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiInformation of each element is described as follows:
IDi: flight plan fiThe flight number of (2), the unique identifier;
PTi: flight plan fiPlanned route point sequence
Figure FDA0003468576090000011
For PTiOne of the element items numbered k, i.e. waypoints
Figure FDA0003468576090000012
The elements contained therein having waypoint numbers
Figure FDA0003468576090000013
Waypoint longitude
Figure FDA0003468576090000014
Waypoint latitude
Figure FDA0003468576090000015
Waypoint height
Figure FDA00034685760900000123
Flight fiTime window of occupancy at waypoints
Figure FDA0003468576090000016
Figure FDA0003468576090000017
Respectively representing flights fiA start time and an end time of an occupancy time at a waypoint;
will waypoint
Figure FDA0003468576090000018
The longitude and latitude positions are projected to the horizontal plane to form the horizontal and vertical coordinates
Figure FDA0003468576090000019
It shows that:
Figure FDA00034685760900000110
Li: flight plan fiPlanned flight sequence
Figure FDA00034685760900000111
For LiOne of which is numbered as k element term, i.e. flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000112
The included elements having segment numbers
Figure FDA00034685760900000113
Horizontal coordinate of starting point of flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000114
Longitudinal coordinate of starting point of flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000115
Altitude of starting point of flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000116
Horizontal coordinate of terminal point of flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000117
Longitudinal coordinate of flight segment end point
Figure FDA00034685760900000118
Altitude of terminal point of flight
Figure FDA00034685760900000119
Course of course
Figure FDA00034685760900000120
The time window occupied by the flight in the flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000121
Figure FDA00034685760900000122
Respectively representing flights fiStarting time of occupation time at an aircraft section andan end time;
setting:
Figure FDA0003468576090000021
the airspace unit with the collision risk comprises risk route points and risk segments, and the set of the route points with the collision risk is RT ═ { RT ═1,rt2,...,rtnRt for the term where the number is i elementiThe included elements are waypoint number, conflict flight, conflict time range, i.e.
Figure FDA0003468576090000022
The information of each element is described as follows:
Ni: numbering waypoints;
fi r，
Figure FDA0003468576090000023
two flight plans with a risk of collision;
Trstart: flight fi r，
Figure FDA0003468576090000024
A starting time at which there is a risk of collision;
Trend: flight fi r，
Figure FDA0003468576090000025
An end time at which there is a risk of collision;
let the set of legs at risk of collision be RL ═ RL1,rl2,...,rlnFor the element entries rl in which the number is iiThe elements included are: conflict leg number, conflict flight, conflict time range, namely:
Figure FDA0003468576090000026
the information of each element is described as follows:
Figure FDA0003468576090000027
two leg numbers with collision risk.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein step 2 comprises:
step 2-1, identifying the waypoints with collision risks;
and 2-2, identifying the flight section with the collision risk.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein step 2-1 comprises: setting the risk assessment time period as T, and taking the flight plan set F as F1,f2,...,fnIn the method, n represents the number of flight plans, a flight plan index is set as i, the initial value of i is set as 1, and the step 2-1-1 is executed;
step 2-1-1, flight f with index i is obtainediIs provided with fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiThe waypoint sequence of
Figure FDA0003468576090000028
Wherein p represents the number of waypoints, the waypoint index is k, and the initial value is 1; for waypoints
Figure FDA0003468576090000029
Get
Figure FDA00034685760900000210
Waypoint numbering of
Figure FDA00034685760900000211
Flight fiAt waypoints
Figure FDA00034685760900000212
Occupied time window of
Figure FDA00034685760900000213
Performing step 2-1-2;
step 2-1-2, traversing the flight plan set F' ═ { F1,f2,...,fn}-{fiAnd f, setting a flight plan index as j, setting an initial value as j as i +1, and taking a flight plan fjMaking the waypoint index m equal to 1, and traversing the waypoint sequence in the plan
Figure FDA0003468576090000031
If there is a waypoint
Figure FDA0003468576090000032
And waypoints in step 2-1-1
Figure FDA0003468576090000033
If the same waypoint is available, the flight f is takenjAt waypoints
Figure FDA0003468576090000034
Occupied time window of
Figure FDA0003468576090000035
Executing the step 2-1-3, otherwise, continuously traversing the flight plan set F ', making j equal to j +1, repeatedly executing the step 2-1-2 until all flights in the F' are traversed, and executing the step 2-1-4;
step 2-1-3, if flight fjIs numbered as
Figure FDA0003468576090000036
Time window of occupation at waypoints
Figure FDA0003468576090000037
And the time window in step 2-1-1
Figure FDA0003468576090000038
There is an overlapThen flight fiWith flight fjThere is a risk of collision, the collision time range TrangeComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003468576090000039
order to
Figure FDA00034685760900000310
And mixing rtiAdding the data into a waypoint set RT with collision risk, and returning to the step 2-1-2;
step 2-1-4, enabling the waypoint index k to be k +1 and pointing to the next waypoint, and if k is not more than p, returning to the step 2-1-1; if k is>p, then flight fiThe identification of the waypoints with collision risks is finished, the flight index i is made to be i +1, the step 2-1-1 is returned, and the identification of the dangerous waypoints of all flights is finished until i is larger than or equal to n.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein step 2-2 comprises:
setting the risk evaluation time period as T, and if the distance between one flight segment and other flight segments is less than a safety value D in the airspace to be evaluatedsAnd the running times are overlapped, the flight on the adjacent flight sections has collision risk, and the flight plan set F is { F { (F)1,f2,...,fnIn the method, n represents the number of flight plans, a flight plan index is set as i, the initial value of i is set as 1, and the step 2-2-1 is executed;
step 2-2-1, flight f with index i is obtainediIs provided with fi＝{IDi,PTi,LiThe flight segment sequence of
Figure FDA00034685760900000311
Wherein p represents the number of flight segments; let the navigation segment index be k and the initial value be 1; for flight segment
Figure FDA00034685760900000312
Get
Figure FDA00034685760900000313
Waypoint numbering of
Figure FDA00034685760900000314
Flight fiIn the voyage
Figure FDA00034685760900000315
Occupied time window of
Figure FDA00034685760900000316
Performing step 2-2-2;
step 2-2-2, traversing the flight plan set F' ═ { F1,f2,...,fn}-{fiAnd f, setting a flight plan index as j, setting an initial value as j as i +1, and taking a flight plan fjAnd traversing the segment sequence in the plan by setting the segment index as m to 1
Figure FDA00034685760900000317
If there is a flight segment
Figure FDA0003468576090000041
And the flight segment in the step 2-2-1
Figure FDA0003468576090000042
Is less than DsThen get the flight fjIn the voyage
Figure FDA0003468576090000043
Occupied time window of
Figure FDA0003468576090000044
Executing the step 2-2-3, otherwise, continuously traversing the flight plan set F ', making j equal to j +1, repeatedly executing the step 2-2-2 until all flights in the F' are traversed, and executing the step 2-2-4;
step 2-2-3, if flight fjIn the voyage
Figure FDA0003468576090000045
Time window occupied by
Figure FDA0003468576090000046
And the time window in the step 2-2-1
Figure FDA0003468576090000047
If there is an overlap, flight fiWith flight fjThere is a potential risk of collision, and the collision time range is:
Figure FDA0003468576090000048
order to
Figure FDA0003468576090000049
And will rliTo the set of legs RL where there is a security risk. Returning to the step 2-2-2;
step 2-2-4, enabling the waypoint index k to be k +1 and pointing to the next waypoint, and if k is not more than p, returning to the step 2-2-1; if k is>p, then flight fiAnd (4) ending the identification of the segment with the potential operation risk, making the flight index i equal to i +1, and returning to the step 2-2-1 until i is larger than or equal to n, and ending the identification of the segment with the potential risk of all flights.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein step 3 comprises: setting the nominal position of the aircraft to be consistent with the scheduled flight position during the process of executing the flight mission, and the positioning error of the horizontal position of the aircraft to be subject to the position parameter muLWith a scale parameter of λLThe height position positioning error obeys a position parameter muHWith a scale parameter of λHA double exponential distribution of (a); aircraft fiNominal position at time t of
Figure FDA00034685760900000410
Course is
Figure FDA00034685760900000411
Executing step 3-1 to step 3-2:
step 3-1, determining the actual height of the aircraft;
and 3-2, determining the actual horizontal position of the aircraft.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein step 3-1 comprises:
step 3-1-1, generating random numbers u between (0,1) by adopting uniform distribution;
step 3-1-2, let height positioning error value Δ H ═ μH-λHsgn (u-0.5) ln (1-2| u-0.5 |); wherein sgn (x) is a step function, and
Figure FDA00034685760900000412
step 3-1-3, aircraft fiActual height at time t
Figure FDA0003468576090000051
Comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003468576090000052
8. the method of claim 7, wherein step 3-2 comprises:
step 3-2-1, generating random numbers u between (0,1) by adopting uniform distribution;
step 3-2-2, let the horizontal positioning error value Δ L ═ μL-λL sgn(u-0.5)ln(1-2|u-0.5|)；
Step 3-2-3, aircraft fiThe actual abscissa position at time t is set as
Figure FDA0003468576090000053
The actual ordinate position is
Figure FDA0003468576090000054
Obtaining an aircraft fiActual position at time t
Figure FDA0003468576090000055
9. The method of claim 8, wherein step 4 comprises:
step 4-1, constructing an aircraft collision protection area;
step 4-2, calculating the severity of the operation conflict;
step 4-1 comprises:
step 4-1-1, setting an aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA0003468576090000056
There is a risk of collision, and fi rThe actual position at time t is
Figure FDA0003468576090000057
Course is
Figure FDA0003468576090000058
The actual position at time t is
Figure FDA0003468576090000059
Course is
Figure FDA00034685760900000510
Respectively at longitudinal safety intervals DVsTransverse safety interval DCsHeight interval DHsEstablishing a cuboid protection area model for the length, the width and the height;
step 4-1-2, during operation, if the zones of protection overlap, it is not a safety risk between the aircraft, i.e. if the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure FDA00034685760900000511
satisfies the following conditions:
Figure FDA00034685760900000512
then the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure FDA00034685760900000513
with risk of collision, overlapping partial volumes of the zones of protection
Figure FDA00034685760900000514
Comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA00034685760900000515
and is
Figure FDA00034685760900000516
The greater the value of (d), the greater the corresponding impact risk strength;
step 4-2 comprises:
step 4-2-1, defining the aircraft conflict severity Fx as:
Figure FDA0003468576090000061
wherein
Figure FDA0003468576090000062
Representing the size of the space occupied by the two aircraft protection zones, Vi r、
Figure FDA0003468576090000063
Respectively an aircraft fi、fjThe collision protection zone of, and
Figure FDA0003468576090000064
Figure FDA0003468576090000065
is the overlapped part volume of the two aircrafts,
Figure FDA0003468576090000066
ρ0representing the space occupied by the protection area when two flights have no collision risk, wherein eta is a proportional gain coefficient;
step 4-2-2, determining a value of a proportional gain coefficient eta:
the unit of measure defining the severity of the conflict is: the number of fatal accidents is implemented as follows:
step 4-2-2-1 setting aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA0003468576090000067
A collision occurs at time t, i.e. a fatal accident occurs, indicating that the severity of the collision Fx is 1, and the aircraft fi rAnd
Figure FDA0003468576090000068
the actual positions coincide, at which time
Figure FDA0003468576090000069
Step 4-2-2-2 where Fx ═ 1,
Figure FDA00034685760900000610
And substituting the aircraft conflict severity calculation formula to obtain a positive proportional gain coefficient eta of 2 (V)i r)3；
On the basis of obtaining the value of the proportional gain coefficient eta, according to the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA00034685760900000611
And obtaining the actual conflict severity Fx of the aircraft by the formula in the step 4-2-1 according to the overlapped part volume of the actual position and the protection area.
10. The method of claim 9, wherein step 5 comprises:
step 5-1, calculating the operation risk of the waypoints:
set of waypoints RT ═ { RT ] at risk of collision1,rt2,...,rtnIn the method, an element item index is set as i, an initial value is set as 1, and unit time for quantifying the risk is set as TunitI.e. with TunitFor the step length of time versus rtiThe aircraft with collision risk carries out risk intensity calculation, the initial value of the collision risk of the waypoint in the time period T in unit time is set as R ═ 0, and the following steps are executed:
step 5-1-1, according to the index i value, taking RT ═ { RT ═ RT1,rt2,...,rtnSpace domain unit with risk in
Figure FDA00034685760900000612
Let the risk-measure quantization time be T, and the initial value be T ═ TrstartExecuting the step 5-1-2;
step 5-1-2, taking the aircraft f according to the flight plani rNominal position at time t of
Figure FDA00034685760900000613
Course is
Figure FDA0003468576090000071
Aircraft
Figure FDA0003468576090000072
Nominal position at time t of
Figure FDA0003468576090000073
Course of course
Figure FDA0003468576090000074
Step 3 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA0003468576090000075
Practice ofIs positioned as
Figure FDA0003468576090000076
Performing step 5-1-3;
step 5-1-3, obtaining the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA0003468576090000077
On the basis of the actual position, step 4 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA0003468576090000078
The collision risk intensity at time t is Fx; according to the definition of collision risk and integral, the length of the time interval T is set as TlenThen, the collision risk value R ═ R + (Fx · T) per unit time for waypoints within the time period Tunit)/TlenExecuting the steps 5-1-4;
step 5-1-4, making the risk intensity quantization time T ═ T + TunitIf T is then ≦ TrendContinuing to execute the step 5-1-2; if t is>TrendSpatial domain unit rt with collision riskiAnd (4) finishing the calculation of the running safety risk in the time period T, enabling the element item index i of the set RT to be i +1, and if i is less than or equal to n, performing the next airspace unit RT with the collision risk in the set RTiCalculating a risk value, and executing the step 5-1-1; if i>n, completing calculation of the collision risk value of the waypoints in the time period T;
step 5-2, calculating the operation risk of the flight segment:
setting the initial value of the flight segment collision risk in the time period T as R ' ═ 0, and setting the unit time T ' of the flight segment risk intensity quantization 'unitFor the set of legs RL where there is a risk of collision { RL1,rl2,...,rlnCalculating risk intensity, setting an initial value of the running risk in unit time of a flight segment within a time period T as R' to 0, and executing the following steps:
step 5-2-1, taking RL { RL according to the index i value1,rl2,...,rlnSpace domain unit with risk in
Figure FDA0003468576090000079
A time variable T is set, and the initial value T is equal to TrstartExecuting the step 5-2-2;
step 5-2-2, taking the aircraft f according to the flight plani rNominal position at time t of
Figure FDA00034685760900000710
Course is
Figure FDA00034685760900000711
Aircraft
Figure FDA00034685760900000712
Nominal position at time t of
Figure FDA00034685760900000713
Course of course
Figure FDA00034685760900000714
Step 3 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA00034685760900000715
The actual positions are respectively
Figure FDA00034685760900000716
Performing step 5-2-3;
step 5-2-3, obtaining the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA00034685760900000717
On the basis of the actual position, step 4 is executed to obtain the aircraft fi r、
Figure FDA00034685760900000718
The degree of operational conflict at time t is Fx; setting the length of the time interval T as T according to the definition of the operation risk value and the integrallenAnd the running risk value R ' per unit time of the waypoint in the period T is R ' + (Fx T 'unit)/TlenExecuting the step 5-2-4;
step 5-2-4, let T ═ T + T'unitIf T is then ≦ TrendContinuing to execute the step 5-2-2; if t is>TrendSpace domain unit rl with collision riskiAnd when the running safety risk calculation in the time period T is finished, making the element item index i of the set RL be i +1, and if i is less than or equal to n, performing collision risk calculation on the next airspace unit RL in the set RLiCalculating a risk value, and executing the step 5-2-1; if i>n, calculating the flight segment operation risk value in the time period T;
5-3, calculating the airspace operation risk:
obtaining the operation risk value R of the space in the time interval TvIs the sum of the collision risk of waypoints and the collision risk of legs, namely Rv＝R+R′。
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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115796603A (en) * 2023-01-29 2023-03-14 中国民航大学 Method and device for evaluating operation influence of civil aviation navigation airport, storage medium and terminal
CN116580602A (en) * 2023-07-13 2023-08-11 四川大学 Prediction and visualization method for sliding conflict of scene airplane

Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115796603A (en) * 2023-01-29 2023-03-14 中国民航大学 Method and device for evaluating operation influence of civil aviation navigation airport, storage medium and terminal
CN116580602A (en) * 2023-07-13 2023-08-11 四川大学 Prediction and visualization method for sliding conflict of scene airplane
CN116580602B (en) * 2023-07-13 2023-10-03 四川大学 Prediction and visualization method for sliding conflict of scene airplane

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