CN114169688B - Reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method and system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method and a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control system, wherein a random simulation model of a flood process is established according to the daily flow of historical flood to obtain warehousing flood processes with different forms; obtaining a flood process considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error based on a flood area composition and flood forecast error analysis simulation method; setting a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control target, combining the existing scheduling rules of the reservoir to calculate the risks of reservoir flood resource utilization under different levels of flood, different initial starting water levels and the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level within a risk acceptable range, and drawing a reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph according to the risk control water level to dynamically control the operating water level of the reservoir in the flood season. The method effectively improves the utilization rate of flood resources on the premise of controllable risk, and provides technical support for flood resource utilization of the reservoir under the condition of controllable risk.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of reservoir scheduling, and particularly relates to a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method and system.
Background
Along with the development of economy in China, the contradiction between water resource supply and demand in China is aggravated, and various water problems are prominent. The regulation and storage function of the reservoir is fully utilized, the medium and small floods are scientifically scheduled, the utilization rate of flood resources is improved, the method is an effective measure for relieving the shortage of water resources, and the method is one of the important strategic research problems of water safety in China. The reservoir generally has flood control and water resource utilization functions, the reservoir water level in a flood season needs to be maintained to operate near a flood control limit water level so as to ensure flood control safety of reservoir engineering and downstream protection areas, meanwhile, in order to ensure the water resource utilization functions of reservoir water supply, power generation and the like, the reservoir needs to keep a higher water level as much as possible, on one hand, the water storage capacity of the reservoir is increased, the flood end storage full rate of the reservoir is improved, and on the other hand, the power generation water head is improved by improving the water level. If the reservoir is strictly scheduled according to the flood control limit water level in the flood season, water abandon is easy to happen, and the reservoir is difficult to store at the end of flood, so that the problem that the contradiction between reservoir flood control and water resource utilization is obvious is caused.
Therefore, the utilization rate of flood resources is often improved by improving the operating water level of the reservoir in the actual operation scheduling of the reservoir in the flood season, and the risk of reservoir flood control scheduling is inevitably increased by improving the operating water level of the reservoir. Reservoir flood resource utilization relates to the influence of a plurality of uncertain factors. However, at present, research on the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood is mainly carried out through a typical flood process or an actual flood sequence, and the influence of various flood types possibly occurring on the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood is not comprehensively considered. Therefore, the reservoir flood control dispatching risk analysis of multi-factor combination under the complex environment is comprehensively considered, and the method has important theoretical significance and engineering practical application value.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects or improvement requirements in the prior art, the invention provides a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method and system, so that the technical problem that the existing reservoir flood control dispatching risk analysis is incomplete is solved.
In order to achieve the above object, according to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for controlling risk of resource utilization of reservoir flood, comprising:
s1, establishing a flood process random simulation model based on the daily flow of historical flood so as to simulate flood processes of different magnitudes;
s2, simulating flood processes of different magnitudes considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors based on the analysis and simulation method of the flood area composition and the flood forecast errors;
s3, setting different initial starting and dispatching water levels by taking the fact that the operating water level of the reservoir does not exceed the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood level and the flow of a downstream flood control station does not exceed the safe discharge of the corresponding flood level as a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control target, combining the existing dispatching rules of the reservoir, calculating the highest operating water level and the flow of the downstream flood control station of the underwater reservoir according to the flood processes of different levels considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors, and judging whether the flow reaches the risk control target or not so as to calculate the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization of the flood of different levels and different initial starting and dispatching water levels;
and S4, determining the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level under the risk.
Preferably, the method further comprises:
drawing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water levels under different magnitudes of flood and different risks in one graph to obtain a reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph so as to dynamically control the operating water level of the reservoir in the flood season.
Preferably, step S1 includes:
s11, establishing a flood season flood total amount random simulation model based on the daily flow of historical flood, and simulating a reservoir flood season flood total amount sequence;
s12, decomposing the total flood quantity sequence of the reservoir in the flood season into a daily flow sequence to obtain a simulated flood process;
and S13, calculating results according to flood total quantity frequency in the flood season, and zooming the simulated flood process by using an equal-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain flood processes of different magnitudes.
Preferably, the flood period flood total quantity sequence of the reservoir follows P-III type distribution.
Preferably, step S2 includes:
s21, calculating the expected value of the interval flood corresponding to the warehousing flood with different magnitudes, and zooming the historical flood process of the interval by using the same-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area;
s22, setting the flood forecasting error to obey normal distribution, and obtaining the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecasting error by utilizing the pure random simulation technology obeying normal distribution according to the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area.
Preferably, the calculating the expected value of the interval flood volume corresponding to the warehousing flood volumes with different magnitudes includes:
obtaining a joint probability distribution function F of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y based on a Copula function theoretical method XY (x, y) and a probability density function c (F) X (x),F Y (y)) and according to
Calculating interval flood expected values E (y | x) corresponding to different magnitude warehousing floods;
wherein, F X (x)、F Y (Y) edge probability distribution functions of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y are respectively;
is F Y The inverse function of (y).
Preferably, the mean obedience of the flood process considering the forecast error of the flood process is set to Q t Has a mean square error of
Normal distribution of (2);
wherein Q t To account for the different magnitude flooding processes that flood the territory makes up,
is Q t T is the number of flood process time segments and DC is the deterministic coefficient.
Preferably, the risk p of the resource utilization of the reservoir flood under different initial starting water levels is calculated by adopting the following formula:
wherein m is the total number of flood fields considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors, and n is the number of flood fields when the operating water level of the reservoir exceeds the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood magnitude or the flow of the downstream flood control station exceeds the safe discharge of the corresponding flood magnitude.
Preferably, step S4 includes:
s41, setting an acceptable range of the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood and setting the operation water level of the reservoir at the t-th moment as the flood limit water level of the reservoir, scheduling the flood process of the same magnitude according to the existing scheduling rule of the reservoir, and judging whether the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood after the t-th moment is in the acceptable range;
s42, gradually increasing the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment, calculating the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization, and determining the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level when the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization exceeds an acceptable range;
and S43, respectively scheduling flood processes of different magnitudes to obtain the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level at each moment.
According to a second aspect of the present invention, there is provided a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control system, comprising: a computer-readable storage medium and a processor;
the computer-readable storage medium is used for storing executable instructions;
the processor is used for reading the executable instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium and executing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method according to the first aspect.
In general, compared with the prior art, the above technical solution contemplated by the present invention can achieve the following beneficial effects:
(1) according to the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method provided by the invention, a large number of flood processes with different magnitude and forms, which accord with regional flood characteristics, can be simulated by constructing the flood process random simulation model, and the influence of various flood types possibly occurring on the reservoir flood resource utilization risk is considered.
(2) According to the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method provided by the invention, various risk factors influencing reservoir flood resource utilization are considered, a quantitative calculation method is provided for the distribution characteristics of main risk factors such as flood forecast errors, flood area compositions, initial starting water level and the like, and the reservoir flood resource utilization risk under the influence of each main risk factor can be reflected more truly.
(3) According to the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method, the flood resource utilization risks of the flood reservoirs with different magnitudes and the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level are obtained according to the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the main risk factors, and technical support can be provided for the flood resource utilization of the reservoir under the condition that the risks are controllable.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method provided by the invention;
FIG. 2 is a reservoir autumn flood storage flood process simulated by a flood process random simulation model according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a contour map of combined distribution of reservoir autumn flood storage volume and interval volume provided by the invention;
FIG. 4 is a statistical result of a flood process of the reservoir in autumn flood season in consideration of flood area composition and flood forecast errors;
FIG. 5 is a 20-year flood-under-reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph provided by the present invention;
fig. 6 is a risk graph of flood resource utilization in a water reservoir under a risk-free condition provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the embodiments of the present invention described below may be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.
The embodiment of the invention provides a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method, as shown in fig. 1, comprising the following steps:
and S1, establishing a flood process random simulation model based on the daily flow of the historical flood so as to simulate flood processes of different magnitudes.
Further, step S1 includes:
s11, establishing a flood season flood total amount random simulation model based on the daily flow of historical flood, and simulating a reservoir flood season flood total amount sequence;
s12, decomposing the total flood quantity sequence of the reservoir in the flood season into a daily flow sequence to obtain a simulated flood process;
and S13, calculating results according to flood total quantity frequency in the flood season, and zooming the simulated flood process by using an equal-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain flood processes of different magnitudes.
Further, the flood period flood total quantity sequence of the reservoir obeys P-III type distribution.
Specifically, step S1 is: according to the historical daily flood flow, a random flood process simulation model is established to simulate flood processes of different magnitudes, and the method comprises the following steps:
(1.1) according to long series actually measured flood process data, for example: historical flood daily flow, establishing a flood period flood total quantity random simulation model, and simulating a reservoir flood period flood total quantity sequence which follows P-III type distribution;
(1.2) establishing a relevant solution model according to the flood process data of the long series actual measurement, and decomposing the obtained total flood quantity sequence of the reservoir in the flood season into a daily flow sequence to obtain a simulated flood process;
and (1.3) calculating a result according to the flood total quantity frequency in the flood season, and zooming the simulated flood process by using an equal-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain the flood processes with different magnitudes.
It is understood that different magnitudes refer to different magnitudes of the total amount of flood.
And S2, simulating flood processes of different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast errors based on the analysis and simulation method of the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast errors.
Further, step S2 includes:
s21, calculating the expected value of the interval flood corresponding to the warehousing flood with different magnitudes, and zooming the historical flood process of the interval by using the same-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area;
and S22, setting the flood forecast error to obey normal distribution, and obtaining the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error by utilizing the pure random simulation technology obeying normal distribution according to the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area.
Further, the calculating of the interval flood expected values corresponding to the different-magnitude warehousing floods includes:
obtaining a joint probability distribution function F of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y based on a Copula function theoretical method XY (x, y) and probability density function c (F) X (x),F Y (y)) and according to
Calculating interval flood expected values E (y | x) corresponding to different magnitude warehousing floods;
wherein, F X (x)、F Y (Y) edge probability distribution functions of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y are respectively;
is F Y The inverse function of (y).
Further, the mean obedience value of the flood process considering the forecast error of the flood process is set to be Q t Has a mean square error of
Normal distribution of (2);
wherein Q is t To account for the different magnitude of the flooding process of a flood area composition,
is Q t T is the number of flood process time segments and DC is the deterministic coefficient.
Specifically, step S2 is: the main risk factors causing the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood are as follows: identifying and quantifying flood area composition and flood forecasting errors, providing a simulation flow of each main risk factor, and obtaining flood processes of different magnitudes considering the main risk factors according to simulated flood processes of different magnitudes; namely: according to the simulation flow of the composition of the flood area and the flood forecasting error, the flood process with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecasting error is obtained, and the method comprises the following steps of:
(2.1) obtaining a joint probability distribution function F of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y based on a Copula function theoretical method XY (x, y) and probability density function c (F) X (x),F Y (y)) and according to
Calculating interval flood expected values E (y | x) corresponding to different-magnitude warehousing floods, wherein F X (x)、F Y (Y) edge probability distribution functions of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y are respectively;
is F Y The inverse function of (y).
(2.2) according to actually measured or randomly simulated warehousing flood processes with different magnitudes, calculating interval flood expected values corresponding to the warehousing flood with different magnitudes, and zooming the historical interval flood process by using a unity-fold ratio amplification method to obtain the warehousing flood processes with different magnitudes and the corresponding interval flood processes, namely the flood processes with different magnitudes and formed by considering flood areas.
And (2.3) determining a proper certainty coefficient DC according to the statistical analysis result of the actual reservoir dispatching flood forecasting error so as to comprehensively reflect the flood process forecasting error. Setting the obeying mean value of the flood process considering the forecast error of the flood process to be Q t Has a mean square error of
Normal distribution of (2), wherein Q t To account for the different magnitude flooding processes that flood the territory makes up,
is Q t T is the number of flood process time segments.
And (2.4) according to the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area, and by utilizing a pure random simulation technology obeying normal distribution, obtaining the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error.
S3, setting different initial starting and dispatching water levels by taking the safe discharge quantity of the reservoir operation water level not exceeding the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood level and the downstream flood control station flow not exceeding the corresponding flood level as a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control target, combining the existing dispatching rules of the reservoir, calculating the highest operation water level and the downstream flood control station flow of the underwater reservoir according to the flood processes of different levels considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors, and judging whether the highest operation water level and the downstream flood control station flow reach the risk control target or not so as to calculate the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization of different levels of flood and different initial starting and dispatching water levels.
Further, the risk p of the resource utilization of the reservoir flood under different initial starting water levels is calculated by adopting the following formula:
wherein m is the total flood field number considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors, and n is the flood field number of the characteristic water level of the reservoir when the operating water level exceeds the corresponding flood magnitude or the safe discharge of the downstream flood control station when the flow exceeds the corresponding flood magnitude.
Specifically, step S3 is: according to main risk factors causing the resource utilization risk of reservoir flood: reservoir simulation methods such as flood area composition, flood forecast error and initial starting and water level regulation are combined with the existing reservoir dispatching rules to construct a reservoir flood resource utilization risk analysis model, and flood resource utilization risks of flood reservoirs with different magnitudes are calculated according to flood processes with different magnitudes considering main risk factors, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
setting different initial starting and regulating water levels by taking the operating water level of the reservoir not exceeding the characteristic water level under the corresponding flood magnitude and the safety discharge capacity under the condition that the flow of the downstream flood control station does not exceed the corresponding flood magnitude as the risk control target for the resource utilization of the flood of the reservoir, combining the existing dispatching rules of the reservoir, and calculating the flood process of different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast errorThe method comprises the steps of judging whether the highest operation water level of the underwater reservoir and the flow of a downstream flood control station exceed the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood magnitude or the flow of the downstream flood control station exceeds the safe discharge of the corresponding flood magnitude, and calculating the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization at different initial starting water levels
Wherein m is the total flood field number considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error, and n is the flood field number when the operating water level of the reservoir exceeds the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood magnitude or the flow of the downstream flood control station exceeds the safe discharge of the corresponding flood magnitude.
And S4, determining the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level under the risk.
Further, step S4 includes:
s41, setting an acceptable range of the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood and setting the operation water level of the reservoir at the t-th moment as the flood limit water level of the reservoir, scheduling the flood process of the same magnitude according to the existing scheduling rule of the reservoir, and judging whether the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood after the t-th moment is in the acceptable range;
s42, gradually increasing the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment, calculating the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization, and determining the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level when the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization exceeds an acceptable range;
and S43, respectively scheduling flood processes of different magnitudes to obtain the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level at each moment.
Specifically, step S4 is: the method for obtaining the flood resource utilization risk control water level of the flood reservoir with different magnitude levels comprises the following steps:
(4.1) setting an acceptable range of the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood and setting the operation water level of the reservoir at the t-th moment as the flood limit water level of the reservoir, scheduling the flood process of the same magnitude according to the existing scheduling rule of the reservoir, and judging whether the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood after the t-th moment is in the acceptable range;
(4.2) gradually increasing the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment, calculating the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization until the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization reaches an acceptable range, and determining the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level;
and (4.3) scheduling flood processes of different magnitudes by using the method, and calculating the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level at each moment to obtain the flood resource utilization risk control water level processes of the flood reservoirs of different magnitudes.
It can be understood that the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level refers to that when the water level of the reservoir operation does not exceed the water level in the actual scheduling, the reservoir operation is performed according to the existing scheduling rules of the reservoir, and then the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization is within an acceptable range.
Further, the method further comprises:
drawing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water levels under different magnitudes of flood and different risks in one graph to obtain a reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph so as to dynamically control the operating water level of the reservoir in the flood season.
The method provided by the present invention is further illustrated below by a specific example.
The method provided by the invention is explained by taking the flood resource utilization risk control of a certain reservoir in the autumn and flood season as an example, and specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) according to historical flood daily flow, a random simulation model of the flood process is established, and the flood process with different magnitudes is simulated, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
(1.1) calculating to obtain the average value of the total flood amount of the autumn flood period of 76.43 hundred million m according to the daily warehousing flow sequence data of the autumn flood period (9 months 1 to 10 months 10) from 1968 to 2018 of the reservoir 3 Coefficient of variation C v 0.86, skewness index C s Is 1.63, at which point C s >0.5, selecting a selection method to establish a random simulation model of the total flood amount in the autumn flood periodSimulating a flood total amount sequence in the autumn flood period complying with the P-III type distribution;
(1.2) according to the daily warehousing flow sequence data of the autumn flood period of the reservoir, calculating to obtain a mean value, a variation coefficient, a skewness coefficient and a covariance matrix of the flow of each day in the autumn flood period, calculating each parameter matrix of a relevant solution set model, decomposing the obtained flood total quantity sequence of the autumn flood period into a daily flow sequence based on the relevant solution set model, and obtaining a simulated flood process;
(1.3) calculating a result according to the total flood frequency in the autumn flood season, and zooming the simulated flood process by using an equal-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain flood processes with different magnitudes, as shown in fig. 2;
(2) according to the analysis and simulation method of the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error, the flood process with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error is obtained, and the method comprises the following steps:
(2.1) calculating P-III type edge distribution parameters of the storage flood volume in the autumn flood season and the interval flood volume according to the reservoir storage flood volume and the interval flood volume data, and optimizing the type of a Copula function, wherein D statistics of three Archimedes Copula functions are shown in the following table 1, a Frank function with smaller D statistics is selected as a Copula structural function, and a combined distribution contour map of the storage flood volume in the autumn flood season and the interval flood volume of the reservoir is obtained and is shown in a figure 3;
TABLE 1D statistics for three Archimedes Copula functions (autumn season)
| Copula function type | Clayton | Frank | Gumbel |
| Parameter theta | 2.2289 | 6.1860 | 2.1145 |
| D statistic | 4.4245 | 3.9593 | 4.1130 |
(2.2) according to actually measured or randomly simulated warehousing flood processes with different magnitudes, calculating to obtain interval flood expected values corresponding to warehousing flood amounts with different magnitudes through the combined distribution of the warehousing flood amounts and the interval flood amounts in the autumn flood period of the reservoir, wherein the expected flood amount is 41.44 hundred million m in the interval of the warehousing flood amount in one hundred-year-one-year 3 Scaling the interval historical flood process by adopting a unity-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain an interval flood process corresponding to a flood process of once-a-century warehouse entry, namely the flood process with different magnitudes formed by flood areas is considered;
(2.3) counting the forecasting results of the reservoir flood process, selecting three deterministic coefficients of 0.90, 0.80 and 0.70, obtaining the parameters of the forecasting flood process obeying normal distribution, taking the deterministic coefficient of 0.90 as an example, and taking the flood process obeying mean value of the forecasting errors of the flood process as Q t Has a mean square error of
Wherein Q t To account for the different magnitude flooding processes that flood the territory makes up,
is Q t T is the number of flood process time segments.
(2.4) according to the flood process considering the different magnitudes of the composition of the flood area, obtaining the flood process considering the different magnitudes of the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error by using a pure random simulation technology obeying normal distribution, wherein the statistical result of the obtained 1000 flood processes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error is shown in fig. 4 by taking the certainty coefficient as 0.90 as an example.
(3) Setting different initial starting and regulating water levels by taking the operating water level of the reservoir not more than the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood magnitude and the safe discharge amount of the downstream flood control station not more than the safe discharge amount of the corresponding flood magnitude as a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control target, combining the existing dispatching rules of the reservoir, taking the flood limit level 163.50m in the autumn flood as the initial starting and regulating water level, gradually raising the initial starting and regulating water level to 170.00m, and calculating the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization according to the flood process of different magnitudes considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors
Wherein m is the total flood field number considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error, and n is the flood field number when the operating water level of the reservoir exceeds the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood magnitude or the flow of the downstream flood control station exceeds the safe discharge of the corresponding flood magnitude.
(4) The process of obtaining flood resource utilization risks of flood reservoirs with different magnitudes of levels to control the water level comprises the following steps:
(4.1) setting the operation water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the limited water level 163.50m of the autumn flood season of the reservoir, scheduling the four flood processes with different magnitudes of 10-year-one meeting, 20-year-one meeting, 50-year-one meeting and 100-year-one meeting according to the existing scheduling rules of the reservoir, and judging whether the risk of the reservoir flood resource utilization after the t moment is within an acceptable range, wherein the acceptable range of the reservoir flood resource utilization risk is set to be no risk, less than 5%, less than 10%, less than 15%, less than 20% and the like;
(4.2) gradually increasing the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment, calculating the risk of the resource utilization of the reservoir flood until the risk of the resource utilization of the reservoir flood exceeds an acceptable range, and determining the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level;
(4.3) scheduling flood processes of different magnitudes by using the method, and calculating the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level at each moment to obtain the flood resource utilization risk control water level processes of different magnitudes, wherein the risk control water level processes within acceptable ranges of flood resource utilization risks of different reservoirs are shown in fig. 5 by taking 20-year encounters as an example.
(5) Drawing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level processes corresponding to floods of different magnitudes in one graph to obtain a reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph, taking the acceptable range of the reservoir flood resource utilization risk as an example of no risk, and taking the obtained reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph as shown in fig. 6, making a lower envelope of the flood resource utilization risk control water level processes of the flood reservoirs of different magnitudes to obtain a dynamic control water level of the flood resource utilization of the reservoir in autumn and flood seasons, wherein the water level can be directly used for guiding the operation scheduling work of the flood resource utilization of the reservoir in autumn and flood seasons under the condition of controllable risk.
The reservoir flood resource utilization risk control system provided by the invention is described below, and the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control system described below and the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method described above can be referred to correspondingly.
The embodiment of the invention provides a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control system, which comprises: a computer-readable storage medium and a processor;
the computer-readable storage medium is used for storing executable instructions;
the processor is used for reading the executable instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium and executing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method according to any one of the embodiments.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the invention, and that any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, establishing a flood process random simulation model based on the daily flow of historical flood so as to simulate flood processes of different magnitudes;
s2, simulating flood processes of different magnitudes considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors based on the analysis and simulation method of the flood area composition and the flood forecast errors;
s3, setting different initial starting and regulating water levels by taking the operating water level of the reservoir not exceeding the characteristic water level under the corresponding flood magnitude and the safety discharge of the downstream flood control station not exceeding the corresponding flood magnitude as a reservoir flood resource utilization risk control target, combining the existing dispatching rules of the reservoir, calculating the highest operating water level and the flow of the downstream flood control station of the flood underwater reservoir with different magnitudes of flood forecasting errors and considering the flood area composition according to the flood process with different magnitudes of flood forecasting errors and considering the flood area composition and the flood forecasting errors, and judging whether the highest operating water level and the flow of the downstream flood control station of the flood underwater reservoir with different magnitudes of flood forecasting errors reach the risk control target or not, so as to calculate the risk of the flood resource utilization of the reservoir with different magnitudes of flood forecasting errors and considering the flood area composition;
and S4, determining the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level under the risk.
2. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of flood water in a reservoir according to claim 1, further comprising:
drawing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water levels under different magnitudes of flood and different risks in one graph to obtain a reservoir flood resource utilization risk graph so as to dynamically control the operating water level of the reservoir in the flood season.
3. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of the flood of the reservoir as claimed in claim 1 or 2, wherein the step S1 includes:
s11, establishing a flood season flood total amount random simulation model based on the daily flow of historical flood, and simulating a reservoir flood season flood total amount sequence;
s12, decomposing the total flood quantity sequence of the reservoir in the flood season into a daily flow sequence to obtain a simulated flood process;
and S13, calculating results according to flood total quantity frequency in the flood season, and zooming the simulated flood process by using an equal-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain flood processes of different magnitudes.
4. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of the reservoir flood of claim 3, wherein the total flood quantity sequence of the reservoir in the flood season follows P-III type distribution.
5. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of the flood of the reservoir as claimed in claim 1 or 2, wherein the step S2 includes:
s21, calculating the expected value of the interval flood corresponding to the warehousing flood with different magnitudes, and zooming the historical flood process of the interval by using the same-multiple ratio amplification method to obtain the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area;
and S22, setting the flood forecast error to obey normal distribution, and obtaining the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area and the flood forecast error by utilizing the pure random simulation technology obeying normal distribution according to the flood processes with different magnitudes considering the composition of the flood area.
6. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of the flood in the reservoir according to claim 5, wherein the calculating of the expected value of the interval flood volume corresponding to the warehousing flood volumes with different magnitudes comprises:
obtaining a joint probability distribution function F of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y based on a Copula function theoretical method XY (x, y) and probability density function c (F) X (x),F Y (y)) and according to
Calculating interval flood expected values E (y | x) corresponding to different magnitude warehousing floods;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,fx (X), fy (Y) are edge probability distribution functions of the warehousing flood volume X and the interval flood volume Y, respectively;
is the inverse function of FY (y).
7. The method of claim 5, wherein the flood process with the forecast error of the flood process taken into account is set to have a mean value Qt and a mean square error Qt
Normal distribution of (2);
wherein Qt is a flood process of different magnitudes considering the composition of flood areas,
is the mean value of Qt, T is the number of periods in the flood process, and DC is a deterministic coefficient.
8. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of the flood in the reservoir according to claim 1, wherein the risk p of resource utilization of the flood in the reservoir at different initial starting water levels is calculated by the following formula:
wherein m is the total number of flood fields considering flood area composition and flood forecast errors, and n is the number of flood fields when the operating water level of the reservoir exceeds the characteristic water level of the corresponding flood magnitude or the flow of the downstream flood control station exceeds the safe discharge of the corresponding flood magnitude.
9. The method for controlling the risk of resource utilization of the flood of the reservoir as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S4 includes:
s41, setting an acceptable range of the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood and setting the operation water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the flood limit water level of the reservoir, scheduling the flood process of the same magnitude according to the existing scheduling rule of the reservoir, and judging whether the resource utilization risk of the reservoir flood after the t moment is in the acceptable range;
s42, gradually increasing the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment, calculating the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization, and determining the operating water level of the reservoir at the t moment as the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level when the risk of reservoir flood resource utilization exceeds an acceptable range;
and S43, respectively scheduling flood processes of different magnitudes to obtain the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control water level at each moment.
10. The utility model provides a reservoir flood utilization risk control system which characterized in that includes: a computer-readable storage medium and a processor;
the computer readable storage medium is used for storing execution instructions;
the processor is used for reading the execution instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium and executing the reservoir flood resource utilization risk control method according to any one of claims 1 to 9.
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