CN114037218A - Power supply and demand pattern evaluation method and device based on comprehensive entropy weight method-Delphi method - Google Patents
Power supply and demand pattern evaluation method and device based on comprehensive entropy weight method-Delphi method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for evaluating an electric power supply and demand pattern by integrating an entropy weight method and a Delphi method, wherein the method comprises the following steps: generating a questionnaire, obtaining a weight value aiming at the evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index; standardizing the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy value of the evaluation index according to the processed index data, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy value of the evaluation index; carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index; calculating a comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to labeling processing; and according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the development of the power supply and demand pattern, making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions. The invention has important significance for promoting sustainable, green and efficient development of the electric power industry in China.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an electric power supply and demand pattern evaluation method based on a comprehensive entropy weight method-Delphi method, and belongs to the field of electric power supply and demand.
Background
The power supply and demand pattern contains related information such as available quantity of power resources, development speed, production capacity, equipment technology level and the like, and has a huge content system and complex related factors. The accurate evaluation of the power supply and demand pattern is helpful for summarizing the development rule of the power supply and demand pattern, finding the configuration problem of a power structure, optimizing a power planning path and promoting the sustainable, green and efficient development of the power industry. However, the existing power supply and demand pattern evaluation model has single evaluation method, incomplete evaluation indexes and incomplete evaluation results. The comprehensive evaluation method of the power supply and demand pattern, which is compatible with data driving and experience driving, needs to be provided, the complex comprehensiveness of the power supply and demand pattern is effectively decomposed, the multi-dimensional evaluation indexes and the multi-level coupling relation are compatible, and the comprehensive evaluation combining subjective empowerment and objective empowerment is realized.
Disclosure of Invention
The present invention is directed to solving, at least to some extent, one of the technical problems in the related art.
Therefore, the first purpose of the invention is to provide an electric power supply and demand pattern evaluation method integrating an entropy weight method and a Delphi method, so as to realize comprehensive and scientific comparative evaluation on the electric power supply and demand pattern.
The second purpose of the invention is to provide an electric power supply and demand pattern evaluation device integrating the entropy weight method and the Delphi method.
A third object of the invention is to propose a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium.
In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of a first aspect of the present invention provides a power supply and demand bureau evaluation method by combining an entropy weight method and a delphif method, including the following steps:
generating a questionnaire, obtaining a weight value aiming at an evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state;
normalizing the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy of the evaluation index according to the normalized index data, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy of the evaluation index;
carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation score of the power supply and demand pattern development according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to the labeling processing;
and according to the comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern, making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is.
According to the power supply and demand pattern evaluation method of the integrated entropy weight method-Delphi method, disclosed by the embodiment of the invention, the power development evaluation mainly evaluates the power development status and the infrastructure condition from the aspects of supply and demand total quantity, supply and demand structure, supply and demand layout and supply and demand efficiency. The total power supply and demand is evaluated by adopting the power generation and utilization capacity and the power grid scale; the power supply and demand structure is embodied by the generated energy ratio of renewable energy, the industrial power consumption ratio and the specific power consumption of electric energy in terminal energy consumption; the electric power coverage population ratio, the electric transmission line population coverage ratio, the total length of the electric transmission line above 110 kilovolts and below, and the power supply capital construction investment completion amount reflect the electric power layout condition. The power supply and demand efficiency is measured by the utilization rate of the installed capacity and the national line loss rate in the small-hour power generation equipment.
The power potential evaluation is mainly used for judging the diggable potential of the power supply and demand pattern in China and realizing the evaluation of the power development potential in China at the power development and growth speed; the electric power development potential evaluation in China is carried out through 7 secondary indexes of electric power production elasticity coefficient, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient, total power generation installation growth rate, renewable energy power generation installation growth rate, generated energy growth rate, power consumption growth rate and transmission grid growth.
The power environment evaluation measures the influence of power development on the external environment from two aspects of environmental friendliness and clean energy; environment-friendly indexes are constructed in four aspects of carbon dioxide discharge amount, power supply coal consumption, power generation coal consumption and water and wind and light discarding amount; the three indexes of the renewable energy policy, the total electric energy substitution amount and the new energy electric quantity internet access proportion reflect the development condition of clean energy in China.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, before the generating a questionnaire and obtaining a weight value for an evaluation index in the questionnaire, the method further includes:
establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern, wherein the comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern comprises a primary evaluation index and a secondary evaluation index; the primary evaluation index comprises one or more of an electric power development evaluation index, an electric power potential evaluation index and an electric power environment evaluation index;
the secondary evaluation indexes corresponding to the power development evaluation indexes comprise one or more of supply and demand total quantity evaluation indexes, supply and demand structure evaluation indexes, supply and demand layout evaluation indexes and supply and demand efficiency evaluation indexes;
the secondary evaluation indexes corresponding to the electric power potential evaluation indexes comprise one or more of electric power production elasticity coefficient evaluation indexes, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient evaluation indexes, total power generation installed growth rate evaluation indexes, renewable energy power generation installed growth rate evaluation indexes, generated energy growth rate evaluation indexes, power consumption growth rate evaluation indexes and power transmission network growth rate evaluation indexes;
the secondary evaluation indexes corresponding to the power environment evaluation indexes comprise one or more of carbon dioxide emission evaluation indexes, power supply coal consumption evaluation indexes, power generation coal consumption evaluation indexes and light and wind abandoning quantity evaluation indexes.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, the subjective weight of the evaluation index is expressed as:
wdelphi method, i＝{wDelphi method, 1，wDelphi method, 2，…wDelphi method, i}
Wherein, wDelphi method, iThe weight value of the i-th evaluation index based on the Delphi method.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, the normalizing the index data of the evaluation index includes:
assuming that m evaluation indexes, n study objects,
wherein the normalized value of each index data is Yij：
For the positive index, a half-raised trapezoidal fuzzy membership function is adopted:
for the reverse index, a decreasing half trapezoidal fuzzy membership function is adopted:
for moderate indexes, a half-rising and half-falling half-fuzzy membership function is adopted:
wherein, by selecting the index critical value Xj1And Xj2Evaluating a moderate index, wherein the more the index value is close to the maximum value or the minimum value, the standardized data is 0; the closer the index value is to the critical value, the more remarkable the standardized data is; the index values are between the threshold values and the normalized data is 1.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, min (X) in the membership function is seti) Set to 0 so that the evaluation index obtains non-zero normalized data.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, the calculating an entropy value of the evaluation index according to the normalized index data includes:
defining entropy and defining entropy weight, wherein the entropy of the ith index is as follows:
wherein h isiEntropy value of the ith index; n is an evaluation index characteristic column;
when making fijWhen 0, k is 1/Inn.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, after the entropy of the ith index is determined, the following formula is used to operate
Obtaining the entropy weight of the ith index:
wherein, wEntropy weight method, iThe evaluation index entropy weight is the ith evaluation index entropy weight based on the entropy weight method; h isiEntropy value of the ith evaluation index; m is the evaluation index row record number.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, performing an average weighting process on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating a comprehensive weight of the evaluation index includes:
the average weighting process is performed by the following formula:
wi＝sentropy weight method·wEntropy weight method, i+sDelphi method·wDelphi method, i
Wherein s isEntropy weight method、sDelphi methodIs a weight coefficient between the value range 0 and 1, and s is the weight coefficient when the evaluation index can be quantifiedEntropy weight method+Delphi method1 is ═ 1; when the evaluation index is not quantifiable, sDelphi method＝1,sEntropy weight method＝0。
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, calculating a comprehensive evaluation score of power supply and demand pattern development according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the labeled index data includes:
calculating the comprehensive evaluation score of the development of the power supply and demand pattern through the following formula:
wherein E isiThe comprehensive evaluation score of the ith evaluation index; w is aiThe comprehensive weight of the ith index; y isijData were evaluated after normalization.
In order to achieve the above object, a second embodiment of the present application provides an apparatus for evaluating an electric power supply and demand pattern by combining entropy weight method-delphi method according to the present invention, which includes the following modules:
the device comprises an acquisition module, a processing module and a processing module, wherein the acquisition module is used for generating a questionnaire, acquiring a weight value aiming at an evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state;
the first calculation module is used for carrying out standardization processing on the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy value of the evaluation index according to the index data after the standardization processing, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy value of the evaluation index;
the second calculation module is used for carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
the third calculation module is used for calculating a comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to the labeling processing;
and the evaluation module is used for making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the power supply and demand pattern development, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is.
According to the power supply and demand pattern evaluation device of the comprehensive entropy weight method-Delphi method, the power development evaluation mainly evaluates the power development status and the infrastructure condition from the aspects of supply and demand total quantity, supply and demand structure, supply and demand layout and supply and demand efficiency. The total power supply and demand is evaluated by adopting the power generation and utilization capacity and the power grid scale; the power supply and demand structure is embodied by the generated energy ratio of renewable energy, the industrial power consumption ratio and the specific power consumption of electric energy in terminal energy consumption; the electric power coverage population ratio, the electric transmission line population coverage ratio, the total length of the electric transmission line above 110 kilovolts and below, and the power supply capital construction investment completion amount reflect the electric power layout condition. The power supply and demand efficiency is measured by the utilization rate of the installed capacity and the national line loss rate in the small-hour power generation equipment.
The power potential evaluation is mainly used for judging the diggable potential of the power supply and demand pattern in China and realizing the evaluation of the power development potential in China at the power development and growth speed; the electric power development potential evaluation in China is carried out through 7 secondary indexes of electric power production elasticity coefficient, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient, total power generation installation growth rate, renewable energy power generation installation growth rate, generated energy growth rate, power consumption growth rate and transmission grid growth.
The power environment evaluation measures the influence of power development on the external environment from two aspects of environmental friendliness and clean energy; environment-friendly indexes are constructed in four aspects of carbon dioxide discharge amount, power supply coal consumption, power generation coal consumption and water and wind and light discarding amount; the three indexes of the renewable energy policy, the total electric energy substitution amount and the new energy electric quantity internet access proportion reflect the development condition of clean energy in China.
To achieve the above object, a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium is provided in an embodiment of a third aspect of the present application, and the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the power supply and demand pattern evaluation method by entropy weight method-delphien synthesis described in the embodiment of the first aspect of the present application.
Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and, in part, will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.
Drawings
The foregoing and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily appreciated from the following description of the embodiments, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of which:
fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power supply and demand pattern evaluation method by a comprehensive entropy weight method-delphi method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of a comprehensive evaluation index system for power supply and demand pattern development according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a diagram of a comprehensive evaluation model for development of a power supply and demand pattern according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electric power supply and demand pattern evaluation apparatus based on the integrated entropy weight method-delphi method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar function throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are exemplary and intended to be illustrative of the invention and are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
The power supply and demand pattern evaluation method and apparatus by the integrated entropy weight method-delphire method according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. First, a power supply and demand bureau evaluation method of the integrated entropy weight method-delphien method according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power supply and demand pattern evaluation method by a comprehensive entropy weight method-delphi method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for evaluating the power supply and demand pattern by the integrated entropy weight method-delphi method includes the following steps:
step S10, generating a questionnaire, obtaining a weight value aiming at the evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight value of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state;
step S20, standardizing the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy of the evaluation index according to the standardized index data, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy of the evaluation index;
step S30, carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
step S40, calculating a comprehensive evaluation score of the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data after the labeling processing;
and step S50, according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the development of the power supply and demand pattern, making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and a corresponding score condition, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, before the generating a questionnaire and obtaining a weight value of an evaluation index in the questionnaire, the method further includes establishing a power supply and demand pattern development comprehensive evaluation index system, as shown in fig. 2:
the first step is as follows: according to the characteristics of power supply and demand, the basic principle that the construction of an index system must have system comprehensiveness, scientificity, combination of determinacy and quantification and practicability is determined;
the second step is that: fully analyzing comprehensive factors influencing the development of the pattern, screening information capable of representing the development level of the power supply and demand pattern, and determining a construction thought of a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern;
according to the embodiment of the application, an electric power supply and demand pattern comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed from three levels of electric power development, electric power potential and electric power environment evaluation. The power development evaluation mainly evaluates the current situation of supply and demand development and the condition of infrastructure, the power potential evaluation focuses on the power development potential, the evaluation on the power development potential is realized at the power development growth speed, and the restriction of the environmental constraint on the development of the power supply and demand pattern is considered to be larger and larger, so the environmental influence is taken as a main aspect of the power supply and demand pattern development evaluation;
the third step: the basic principle of the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern is combined, the comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern of the three levels of power development, power potential and power environment evaluation is established according to the basic thought of the construction of the index system, and the secondary index of the comprehensive evaluation system is constructed according to the comprehensive evaluation index system.
Specifically, the power development evaluation evaluates the current power development situation and the infrastructure condition mainly from the aspects of total supply and demand, supply and demand structure, supply and demand layout, and supply and demand efficiency. The total power supply and demand is evaluated by adopting the power generation and utilization capacity and the power grid scale. The renewable energy generating capacity accounts for the ratio, the industrial power accounts for the ratio, and the electric energy accounts for the proportion of terminal energy consumption to reflect the power supply and demand structure. The power distribution condition is reflected by the power coverage population ratio, the power transmission line population coverage rate, the total length of the power transmission line above 110 kilovolts and below, and the power supply capital construction investment completion amount. The power supply and demand efficiency is measured by the utilization rate of the installed capacity and the national line loss rate in the small-hour power generation equipment.
Specifically, the power potential evaluation is mainly used for judging the diggable potential of the power supply and demand pattern in China, and the judgment of the power development potential in China is realized at the power development and growth speed. The electric power development potential evaluation in China is carried out through 7 secondary indexes of electric power production elasticity coefficient, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient, total power generation installation growth rate, renewable energy power generation installation growth rate, generating capacity growth rate, power consumption growth rate and transmission grid growth.
Specifically, the power environment evaluation measures the influence of power development on the external environment in terms of both environment-friendly and clean energy. And environment-friendly indexes are established in four aspects of carbon dioxide emission, power supply coal consumption, power generation coal consumption and water and wind and light discarding amount. Three indexes of a renewable energy policy, the total electric energy substitution amount and the new energy electric quantity internet access proportion reflect the development condition of clean energy in China.
The comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern is shown in the following table 1:
TABLE 1 comprehensive evaluation index system for power supply and demand pattern development
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, the subjective weight of the evaluation index is expressed as:
wdelphi method, i＝{wDelphi method, 1，wDelphi method, 2，…wDelphi method, i}
Wherein, wDelphi method, iThe weight value of the i-th evaluation index based on the Delphi method.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, the normalizing the index data of the evaluation index includes:
assuming that m evaluation indexes, n study objects,
wherein the normalized value of each index data is Yij：
For the positive index, a half-raised trapezoidal fuzzy membership function is adopted:
for the reverse index, a decreasing half trapezoidal fuzzy membership function is adopted:
for moderate indexes, a half-rising and half-falling half-fuzzy membership function is adopted:
wherein, by selecting the index critical value Xj1And Xj2Evaluating a moderate index, wherein the more the index value is close to the maximum value or the minimum value, the standardized data is 0; the closer the index value is to the critical value, the more remarkable the standardized data is; the index values are between the threshold values and the normalized data is 1.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, min (X) in the membership function is seti) Set to 0 so that the evaluation index obtains non-zero normalized data.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, calculating an entropy value of the evaluation index according to the normalized index data includes:
defining entropy and defining entropy weight, wherein the entropy of the ith index is as follows:
wherein h isiEntropy value of the ith index; n is an evaluation index characteristic column;
when making fijWhen 0, k is 1/Inn;
wherein, wEntropy weight method, iThe evaluation index entropy weight is the ith evaluation index entropy weight based on the entropy weight method; h isiEntropy value of the ith evaluation index; m is the evaluation index row record number.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, performing an average weighting process on a subjective weight of an evaluation index and an objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating a comprehensive weight of the evaluation index includes:
the average weighting process is performed by the following formula:
wi＝sentropy weight method·wEntropy weight method, i+sDelphi method·wDelphi method, i
Wherein s isEntropy weight method、sDelphi methodIs a weight coefficient between the value range 0 and 1, and s is the weight coefficient when the evaluation index can be quantifiedEntropy weight method+sDelphi method1 is ═ 1; when the evaluation index is not quantifiable, sDelphi method＝1,sEntropy weight method＝0。
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present application, calculating a comprehensive evaluation score of power supply and demand pattern development according to a comprehensive weight of an evaluation index and the labeled index data includes:
calculating the comprehensive evaluation score of the development of the power supply and demand pattern through the following formula:
wherein E isiThe comprehensive evaluation score of the ith evaluation index; w is aiIs item iThe comprehensive weight of the index; y isijData were evaluated after normalization.
Furthermore, the grade division and the corresponding score condition of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern are formulated according to the comprehensive evaluation score as shown in the table below, wherein the higher the obtained comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the power supply and demand pattern is represented; generally, the electric power supply and demand pattern comprehensive evaluation score EiThe characterization is at a better level above 0.65, the characterization below 0.40 is to be promoted, and the specific evaluation grades are divided as shown in the following table 2:
TABLE 2 evaluation rating Scale
| Rating of evaluation | Comprehensive evaluation score range |
| Is excellent in | 0.85≤Ei≤1 |
| Is preferably used | 0.65≤Ei＜0.85 |
| In general | 0.40≤Ei＜0.65 |
| Is poor | 0≤Ei＜0.40 |
As shown in fig. 3, a schematic diagram of a power supply and demand pattern evaluation model of the integrated entropy weight method-delphi method is provided.
According to the power supply and demand pattern evaluation method of the comprehensive entropy weight method-Delphi method, a questionnaire is generated, a weight value aiming at an evaluation index in the questionnaire is obtained, and a subjective weight of the evaluation index is generated according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state; standardizing the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy of the evaluation index according to the standardized index data, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy of the evaluation index; carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation value of the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to labeling processing; and establishing grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions according to the development comprehensive evaluation score of the power supply and demand pattern, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is. The invention has important significance for promoting sustainable, green and efficient development of the electric power industry in China.
The power development evaluation mainly evaluates the power generation and display state and the infrastructure condition from the aspects of total supply and demand, supply and demand structure, supply and demand layout and supply and demand efficiency. The total power supply and demand is evaluated by adopting the power generation and utilization capacity and the power grid scale; the power supply and demand structure is embodied by the power generation amount ratio of renewable energy sources, the industrial power consumption ratio and the electric energy consumption ratio of terminal energy sources; the power coverage population ratio, the power transmission line population coverage rate, the total length of the power transmission line above 110 kilovolts and below, and the power supply capital construction investment completion amount reflect the power layout condition. The power supply and demand efficiency is measured by the utilization rate of the installed capacity and the national line loss rate in the small-hour power generation equipment.
The power potential evaluation is mainly used for judging the diggable potential of the power supply and demand pattern in China and realizing the evaluation of the power development potential in China at the power development and growth speed; the electric power development potential evaluation in China is carried out through 7 secondary indexes of electric power production elasticity coefficient, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient, total power generation installation growth rate, renewable energy power generation installation growth rate, generated energy growth rate, power consumption growth rate and transmission grid growth.
The power environment evaluation measures the influence of power development on the external environment from two aspects of environmental friendliness and clean energy; environment-friendly indexes are constructed in four aspects of carbon dioxide discharge amount, power supply coal consumption, power generation coal consumption and water and wind and light discarding amount; the three indexes of the renewable energy policy, the total electric energy substitution amount and the new energy electric quantity internet access proportion reflect the development condition of clean energy in China.
Next, a power supply and demand pattern evaluation apparatus by the integrated entropy weight method-delphi method according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electric power supply and demand pattern evaluation device by integrating entropy weight method and delphi method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 4, the power supply and demand pattern evaluation apparatus 10 by the integrated entropy weight method-delphie method includes: an acquisition module 100, a first calculation module 200, a second calculation module 300, a third calculation module 400 and an evaluation module 500.
The acquisition module 100 is configured to generate a questionnaire, acquire a weight value for an evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generate a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, where the questionnaire includes at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained by an expert weighting the evaluation index in a back-to-back state;
the first calculating module 200 is configured to perform normalization processing on the index data of the evaluation index, calculate an entropy of the evaluation index according to the index data after the normalization processing, and calculate an objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy of the evaluation index;
the second calculating module 300 is configured to perform average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculate a comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
the third calculation module 400 is configured to calculate a comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the labeled index data;
the evaluation module 500 is configured to formulate grade division and corresponding score conditions of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive evaluation score developed by the power supply and demand pattern, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is.
The power supply and demand pattern evaluation device of the comprehensive entropy weight method-Delphi method is used for generating a questionnaire through an acquisition module, acquiring a weight value aiming at an evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state; the first calculation module is used for carrying out standardization processing on index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy value of the evaluation index according to the index data after the standardization processing, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy value of the evaluation index; the second calculation module is used for carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index; the third calculation module is used for calculating a comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to the labeling processing; and the evaluation module is used for making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions according to the comprehensive evaluation score developed by the power supply and demand pattern, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is. The invention has important significance for promoting sustainable, green and efficient development of the electric power industry in China.
The power development evaluation mainly evaluates the power generation and display state and the infrastructure condition from the aspects of total supply and demand, supply and demand structure, supply and demand layout and supply and demand efficiency. The total power supply and demand is evaluated by adopting the power generation and utilization capacity and the power grid scale; the power supply and demand structure is embodied by the power generation amount ratio of renewable energy sources, the industrial power consumption ratio and the electric energy consumption ratio of terminal energy sources; the power coverage population ratio, the power transmission line population coverage rate, the total length of the power transmission line above 110 kilovolts and below, and the power supply capital construction investment completion amount reflect the power layout condition. The power supply and demand efficiency is measured by the utilization rate of the installed capacity and the national line loss rate in the small-hour power generation equipment.
The power potential evaluation is mainly used for judging the diggable potential of the power supply and demand pattern in China and realizing the evaluation of the power development potential in China at the power development and growth speed; the electric power development potential evaluation in China is carried out through 7 secondary indexes of electric power production elasticity coefficient, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient, total power generation installation growth rate, renewable energy power generation installation growth rate, generated energy growth rate, power consumption growth rate and transmission grid growth.
The power environment evaluation measures the influence of power development on the external environment from two aspects of environmental friendliness and clean energy; environment-friendly indexes are constructed in four aspects of carbon dioxide discharge amount, power supply coal consumption, power generation coal consumption and water and wind and light discarding amount; the three indexes of the renewable energy policy, the total electric energy substitution amount and the new energy electric quantity internet access proportion reflect the development condition of clean energy in China.
In the description herein, references to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., mean that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above are not necessarily intended to refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. Moreover, various embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification can be combined and combined by one skilled in the art without contradiction.
Furthermore, the terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one such feature. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means at least two, e.g., two, three, etc., unless specifically limited otherwise.
Any process or method descriptions in flow charts or otherwise described herein may be understood as representing modules, segments, or portions of code which include one or more executable instructions for implementing steps of a custom logic function or process, and alternate implementations are included within the scope of the preferred embodiment of the present invention in which functions may be executed out of order from that shown or discussed, including substantially concurrently or in reverse order, depending on the functionality involved, as would be understood by those reasonably skilled in the art of the present invention.
The logic and/or steps represented in the flowcharts or otherwise described herein, e.g., a sequential list of executable instructions that may be thought of as being useful for implementing logical functions, may be embodied in any computer-readable medium for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device, such as a computer-based system, processor-containing system, or other system that may fetch the instructions from the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device and execute the instructions. For the purposes of this description, a "computer-readable medium" can be any means that can contain, store, communicate, propagate, or transport the program for use by or in connection with the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer-readable medium would include the following: an electrical connection (electronic device) having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette (magnetic device), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber device, and a portable compact disc read-only memory (CDROM). Additionally, the computer-readable medium could even be paper or another suitable medium upon which the program is printed, as the program can be electronically captured, via for instance optical scanning of the paper or other medium, then compiled, interpreted or otherwise processed in a suitable manner if necessary, and then stored in a computer memory.
It should be understood that portions of the present invention may be implemented in hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the above embodiments, the various steps or methods may be implemented in software or firmware stored in memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. If implemented in hardware, as in another embodiment, any one or combination of the following techniques, which are known in the art, may be used: discrete logic circuits with logic gates for implementing logic functions on data signals, application specific integrated circuits with appropriate combinational logic gates, Programmable Gate Arrays (PGAs), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), etc.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the steps carried by the method for implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by hardware that can be related to instructions of a program, which can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when the program is executed, the program includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiments.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing module, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one module. The integrated module can be realized in a hardware mode, and can also be realized in a software functional module mode. The integrated module, if implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium.
The storage medium mentioned above may be a read-only memory, a magnetic or optical disk, etc. Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention, and that variations, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A power supply and demand pattern evaluation method based on an entropy weight method-Delphi method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
generating a questionnaire, obtaining a weight value aiming at an evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state;
normalizing the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy of the evaluation index according to the normalized index data, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy of the evaluation index;
carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index, and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
calculating a comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to the labeling processing;
and according to the comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern, making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is.
2. The evaluation method according to claim 1, before the generating a questionnaire and obtaining a weight value for an evaluation index in the questionnaire, further comprising:
establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern, wherein the comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of the power supply and demand pattern comprises a primary evaluation index and a secondary evaluation index; the primary evaluation index comprises one or more of an electric power development evaluation index, an electric power potential evaluation index and an electric power environment evaluation index;
the secondary evaluation indexes corresponding to the power development evaluation indexes comprise one or more of supply and demand total quantity evaluation indexes, supply and demand structure evaluation indexes, supply and demand layout evaluation indexes and supply and demand efficiency evaluation indexes;
the secondary evaluation indexes corresponding to the electric power potential evaluation indexes comprise one or more of electric power production elasticity coefficient evaluation indexes, electric power consumption elasticity coefficient evaluation indexes, total power generation installed growth rate evaluation indexes, renewable energy power generation installed growth rate evaluation indexes, generated energy growth rate evaluation indexes, power consumption growth rate evaluation indexes and transmission grid growth rate evaluation indexes;
the secondary evaluation indexes corresponding to the power environment evaluation indexes comprise one or more of carbon dioxide emission evaluation indexes, power supply coal consumption evaluation indexes, power generation coal consumption evaluation indexes and light and wind abandoning quantity evaluation indexes.
3. The evaluation method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the subjective weight of the evaluation index is expressed as:
wdelphi method, i＝{wDelphi method, 1，wDelphi method, 2，...，wDelphi method, i}
Wherein, wDelphi method, iThe weight value of the i-th evaluation index based on the Delphi method.
4. The evaluation method according to claim 3, wherein the normalizing process of the index data of the evaluation index includes:
assuming that m evaluation indexes, n study objects,
wherein the normalized value of each index data is Yij：
For the positive index, a half-raised trapezoidal fuzzy membership function is adopted:
for the reverse index, a decreasing half trapezoidal fuzzy membership function is adopted:
for moderate indexes, a half-rising and half-falling half-fuzzy membership function is adopted:
wherein, the index critical value X is selectedj1And Xj2Evaluating a moderate index, wherein the more the index value is close to the maximum value or the minimum value, the standardized data is 0; the closer the index value is to the critical value, the more remarkable the standardized data is; the index values are between the critical values and the normalized data is 1.
5. The evaluation method according to claim 4, wherein min (X) in the membership function is calculatedi) Set to 0 so that the evaluation index obtains non-zero normalized data.
6. The evaluation method according to claim 4, wherein the calculating an entropy value of the evaluation index from the normalized index data includes:
defining entropy and defining entropy weight, wherein the entropy of the ith index is as follows:
wherein h isiEntropy value of the ith index; n is an evaluation index characteristic column;
when making fijWhen 0, k is 1/Inn.
7. The evaluation method according to claim 6, wherein after the entropy of the ith index is determined, the entropy weight of the ith index is obtained by the following formula:
wherein, wEntropy weight method, iThe evaluation index entropy weight is the ith evaluation index entropy weight based on the entropy weight method; h isiEntropy value of the ith evaluation index; m is the evaluation index row record number.
8. The evaluation method according to claim 7, wherein the calculating of the integrated weight of the evaluation index by performing average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index includes:
the average weighting process is performed by the following formula:
wi＝sentropy weight method·wEntropy weight method, i+sDelphi method·wDelphi method, i
Wherein s isEntropy weight method、sDelphi methodIs a weight coefficient between the value range 0 and 1, and s is the weight coefficient when the evaluation index can be quantifiedEntropy weight method+sDelphi method1 is ═ 1; when the evaluation index is not quantifiable, sDelphi method＝1,sEntropy weight method＝0。
9. The evaluation method according to claim 8, wherein calculating a power supply and demand pattern development comprehensive evaluation score based on the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the labeled index data includes:
calculating the comprehensive evaluation score of the development of the power supply and demand pattern through the following formula:
wherein E isiIs a comprehensive evaluation of the ith evaluation indexA value score; w is aiThe comprehensive weight of the ith index; y isijData were evaluated after normalization.
10. An apparatus for evaluating a power supply and demand pattern by integrating an entropy weight method and a Delphi method, comprising:
the device comprises an acquisition module, a processing module and a processing module, wherein the acquisition module is used for generating a questionnaire, acquiring a weight value aiming at an evaluation index in the questionnaire, and generating a subjective weight of the evaluation index according to the weight value of the evaluation index, wherein the questionnaire comprises at least one evaluation index, and the weight value of each evaluation index is obtained after an expert weights the evaluation index in a back-to-back state;
the first calculation module is used for carrying out standardization processing on the index data of the evaluation index, calculating the entropy value of the evaluation index according to the index data after the standardization processing, and calculating the objective weight corresponding to the evaluation index according to the entropy value of the evaluation index;
the second calculation module is used for carrying out average weighting processing on the subjective weight of the evaluation index and the objective weight of the evaluation index and calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index;
the third calculation module is used for calculating a comprehensive evaluation score for the development of the power supply and demand pattern according to the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index and the index data subjected to the labeling processing;
and the evaluation module is used for making grade division of the development degree of the power supply and demand pattern and corresponding score conditions according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the power supply and demand pattern development, wherein the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the higher the development level of the corresponding power supply and demand pattern is.
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