CN114019582A - Intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method and system - Google Patents
Intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method and system Download PDFInfo
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- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 56
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 28
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- 238000012806 monitoring device Methods 0.000 claims description 19
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- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000001228 spectrum Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000001757 thermogravimetry curve Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 206010039203 Road traffic accident Diseases 0.000 abstract description 4
- 238000007477 logistic regression Methods 0.000 abstract description 4
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- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 description 3
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- 230000008018 melting Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000002844 melting Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 2
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- 206010063385 Intellectualisation Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 238000013528 artificial neural network Methods 0.000 description 1
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- 230000008014 freezing Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000007710 freezing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004927 fusion Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010438 heat treatment Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000009434 installation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010202 multivariate logistic regression analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000007781 pre-processing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000000750 progressive effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000001932 seasonal effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005507 spraying Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G01W—METEOROLOGY
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Abstract
The invention discloses an intelligent monitoring and early warning method and system for icing, wherein the intelligent monitoring and early warning method for icing comprises the following steps: monitoring meteorological information of a preset road section and acquiring road surface information of the preset road section; establishing an icing time prediction model, and analyzing meteorological information of a preset road section and road surface information of the preset road section; and outputting a road condition prediction result and issuing an icing early warning grade. By establishing the icing probability prediction model, the road condition can be predicted in advance according to the meteorological information of the preset road section and the road surface information of the preset road section, so that corresponding active measures can be taken, regular people sending for road patrol is avoided, the labor and financial cost is greatly reduced, and manual patrol blind spots can be avoided. Road icing early warning is carried out on the driver in time, the driver is reminded of driving cautiously, and the probability of traffic accidents is greatly reduced. The multi-logistic regression model is used for analyzing meteorological information and road surface information of the preset road section, so that the icing probability prediction precision can be improved, and the phenomenon of false alarm is avoided.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of meteorological monitoring and early warning, in particular to an intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method and system.
Background
At present, the main measure of the treatment of the ice on the road surface in China is a road meteorological monitoring station, and a monitoring and early warning system is adopted in a part of regions and road sections. The meteorological monitoring station has poor monitoring precision and single function, can only acquire road surface state data, cannot early warn in advance and has poor implementation effect; although the monitoring and early warning system on the market can issue early warning information in real time, a unitary analysis model is only established for the road surface temperature, the support of meteorological data is lacked, the influence factor is single, the model prediction precision is limited, and the phenomenon of false alarm caused by the problem of system precision is difficult to avoid.
In summary, how to solve the problem of the false alarm phenomenon caused by low precision of the monitoring and early warning system is a problem to be urgently solved by those skilled in the art at present.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides an intelligent monitoring and early warning method and system for icing, which increase the monitoring range of a sensor, improve the accuracy of icing early warning, and avoid the occurrence of false alarms.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
an icing intelligent monitoring and early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
monitoring meteorological information of a preset road section and acquiring road surface information of the preset road section;
establishing an icing probability prediction model, and analyzing the meteorological information of the preset road section and the road surface information of the preset road section;
and outputting a road condition prediction result and issuing an icing early warning grade.
Preferably, the monitoring of the weather information of the preset road section further comprises:
and selecting the preset road section, and arranging a meteorological and road surface monitoring device on the preset road section.
Preferably, the selecting the preset road segment comprises:
acquiring the monthly average road icing days of each road section in a preset area, and analyzing the icing time trend and the icing duration time distribution of each road section;
and selecting the preset road sections by combining the macroscopic temperature distribution characteristic analysis of each road section displayed by the thermal spectrum map and the temperature change relevance of different road sections.
Preferably, the method further comprises the following steps:
and arranging a deicing device on the selected preset road section.
Preferably, the road surface information of the preset road section is acquired through a thermal spectrum map.
The utility model provides an icing intelligent monitoring early warning system, includes meteorological monitoring device, information processing device and cloud platform, predetermine icing probability prediction model and thermogram in the information processing device, the cloud platform respectively with meteorological monitoring device with information processing device signal connection.
Preferably, the meteorological monitoring device includes road surface condition monitor, ultrasonic meteorological station, visibility meter, road surface temperature sensor, road surface humidity sensor, rainfall sensor, air temperature and humidity sensor respectively with information processing device signal connection, road surface condition monitor, ultrasonic meteorological station, visibility meter, road surface temperature sensor, road surface humidity sensor, rainfall sensor, air temperature and humidity sensor and information processing device all sets up on the bracing piece.
Preferably, the road surface condition monitor is mounted on the support rod through a cradle head.
Preferably, the cloud platform comprises a server, a PC and a mobile terminal, and the server, the PC and the mobile terminal are in signal connection with the information processing device.
Preferably, the weather monitoring device and the information processing device are connected through wireless signals.
According to the intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method, the icing probability prediction model is established, the road condition can be predicted in advance according to the meteorological information of the preset road section and the road surface information of the preset road section, corresponding active measures are taken, people are prevented from being dispatched regularly to go on the road for inspection, the labor and financial cost is greatly reduced, and meanwhile, manual inspection blind spots can be avoided. The warning and reminding of the on-site traffic safety information service are provided, the road icing early warning is timely carried out on the driver, the driver is reminded of driving cautiously, and the probability of traffic accidents is greatly reduced. The icing probability prediction precision can be improved by monitoring the meteorological information and the road surface information of the preset road section, and the phenomenon of misinformation is avoided.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an intelligent monitoring and early warning method for icing provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a modeling of a predictive model of ice pavement probability provided by the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a signal connection diagram of the intelligent icing monitoring and early warning system provided by the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a front view of the weather monitoring apparatus provided in the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a side view of a weather monitoring apparatus provided in accordance with the present invention.
In FIGS. 1-5:
the system comprises a PC (personal computer) end 1, a mobile terminal 2, a server end 3, a cloud platform 4, an information processing device 5, an ultrasonic weather station 6, a road surface condition monitor 7, an visibility meter 8 and a support rod 9.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The core of the invention is to provide an intelligent monitoring and early warning method and system for icing, which increases the monitoring range of a sensor, improves the accuracy of icing early warning and avoids the phenomenon of false alarm.
Referring to fig. 1 to 5, an intelligent monitoring and early warning method for icing includes:
s1: monitoring meteorological information of a preset road section and acquiring road surface information of the preset road section;
s2: establishing an icing probability prediction model, and analyzing meteorological information of a preset road section and road surface information of the preset road section;
s3: and outputting a road condition prediction result and issuing an icing early warning grade.
To obtain the mathematical relationship between the icing probability and the influencing factor, it is necessary to establish a mathematical relationship that takes the icing probability as an output variable (dependent variable) and takes the icing influencing factor: and (3) an icing probability prediction model of meteorological information and road surface information input variables (independent variables). Before modeling, the following points must first be considered: the ice road surface influencing factors are mutually related and influence each other; the relationship between the probability of icing on the road and the influencing factors is a non-linear relationship.
By researching ice forming and melting rules and influence factors such as atmospheric temperature and rainfall, and the like, an icing probability prediction model is established by utilizing multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the modeling flow of the road icing probability prediction model is as follows: inputting icing state parameters → data preprocessing → training sample set → selecting kernel factors → selecting parameters such as penalty factors → determining classification hyperplane → constructing decision function by optimal solution → establishing prediction model → inputting test sample set → outputting prediction result → performance evaluation.
In order to obtain accurate icing probability, meteorological information and road surface information are combined to establish a multiple logistic regression icing prediction model. The method comprises the steps of substituting predicted meteorological information and road surface information into an icing probability prediction model, taking an output result as a basis for prevention, and enabling the output result to correspond to different icing early warning levels.
According to the intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method, the multiple logistic regression prediction model is established, the road condition can be predicted in advance according to the meteorological information of the preset road section and the road surface information of the preset road section, corresponding active measures are taken, people are prevented from being dispatched regularly to go on the road for inspection, the labor and financial cost is greatly reduced, and meanwhile, manual inspection blind spots can be avoided. The warning and reminding of the on-site traffic safety information service are provided, the road icing early warning is timely carried out on the driver, the driver is reminded of driving cautiously, and the probability of traffic accidents can be greatly reduced.
In order to facilitate monitoring of the meteorological information of the preset road section, the method for monitoring the meteorological information of the preset road section further comprises the following steps: and selecting a preset road section, and arranging a meteorological and pavement monitoring device on the road section. The selection of the preset road section can be carried out by the following steps:
acquiring the monthly average road icing days of each road section in a preset area, and analyzing the icing time trend and the icing duration time distribution of each road section; and selecting the preset road sections by combining the macroscopic temperature distribution characteristic analysis of each road section displayed by the thermogram and the temperature change relevance of different road sections.
It should be noted that the freezing early warning devices arranged in a dotted manner cannot establish a whole road surface ice and snow monitoring system. However, the characteristics of the temperature distribution of the road section are determined by environmental factors and climate conditions, and the main influencing factors, such as local climate conditions, surrounding environmental factors, the proximity of nearby water bodies, traffic flow and the like, have relatively stable characteristics. With the gradual deepening of the recognition of the spatial distribution characteristics of the highway temperature, the thermal spectrum map (the map with temperature change) can conjointly analyze the temperature distribution of the road section and predict the road surface temperature change and ice and snow generation condition of the whole road section or a specific area by combining the forecast information of the icing early warning device.
By monitoring various meteorological factors (atmospheric humidity, wind speed and the like) in the area and temperature data of all road sections in the area in real time, the data of various factors are integrated through cloud computing, and the road surface condition which is possibly frozen is analyzed. The method needs a large amount of meteorological data of the tested region and physical attribute data of each road section of the tested region as references, and a neural network method is selected to predict ice structure and density change under different meteorological conditions.
The difference of the icing conditions of all road sections in the region is large in the seasonal variation process, and the distribution condition of the road icing time region is obtained by analyzing the monthly average road icing days in the region. The reason for the uneven distribution of the road icing time is mainly due to the adjustment of the change of seasons and the analysis of the icing time trend and the icing duration distribution of each road section in the area from the analysis of the average monthly road icing days.
According to the regional icing time spatial distribution data and the time distribution data, a thermal spectrum map generated by analyzing the macroscopic temperature distribution characteristics along the highway and the temperature change correlation of different road sections helps to determine the optimal layout point position of the icing early warning monitoring device in the whole road section. Single point icing predictions and regional icing predictions may be made to provide decision support.
In order to prevent the ice on the road surface and improve the safety, it is further preferable that, in addition to the above-mentioned embodiment, the method further includes: and arranging a deicing device on the selected preset road section.
It should be noted that the step of determining the optimal layout point location of the deicing devices in the whole road section refers to the step of determining the optimal layout point location of the icing early warning monitoring devices in the whole road section. A standard interface is reserved on the roadside and can be in linkage control with deicing or ice melting equipment, the deicing equipment comprises a fixed and/or movable spraying system, a heating cable and a conductive film consumption layer, and deicing measures are automatically taken to prevent the road surface from being frozen.
In order to improve the accuracy of acquiring the road surface information of the preset road section, on the basis of the above embodiment, it is further preferable that the road surface information of the preset road section is acquired through a thermal spectrum map.
In addition to the intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method, the invention also provides an intelligent icing monitoring and early warning system which comprises a meteorological monitoring device, an information processing device 5 and a cloud platform 4, wherein an icing probability prediction model and a thermal spectrum map are preset in the information processing device 5, and the cloud platform 4 is in signal connection with the meteorological monitoring device and the information processing device 5 respectively.
It should be noted that a weather analysis unit is preset in the information processing device 5, and the weather analysis unit outputs the icing prediction result to the cloud platform 4 through the comprehensive operation of the icing probability prediction model on the data acquired by the weather monitoring device. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning system can automatically monitor and collect environmental data and road surface condition information in real time, achieves monitoring and icing early warning functions, is easy to maintain, is self-diagnosed in equipment failure and remotely seeks obstacles, and is free of field maintenance. The system has good reliability and can stably run for a long time in various severe environments. The system has high expansibility, and can share data with other systems or meteorological departments through the data interface reserved on the road side.
On the basis of the above-mentioned embodiment, the weather monitoring device preferably includes a road surface condition monitor 7, an ultrasonic weather station 6, and a visibility meter 8, which are respectively in signal connection with the information processing device 5, and the weather monitoring device may be further preferably configured with a road surface temperature sensor, a road surface humidity sensor, a rainfall sensor, an air temperature and humidity sensor, the road surface condition monitor 7, the ultrasonic weather station 6, and the visibility meter 8, and the road surface temperature sensor, the road surface humidity sensor, the rainfall sensor, the air temperature and humidity sensor, and the information processing device 5 are all disposed on the support rod 9. The sensors are arranged on the road side on site, all equipment is automatically controlled, and data acquisition, transmission and monitoring are carried out in real time; and a multiple logistic regression model is established by multi-sensor data fusion, so that the probability of data misinformation is low, and the early warning is more accurate.
In order to facilitate the installation and not to damage the road surface, the supporting rod 9 is suitable for being arranged along the road and can be fixed on the road side of the road through expansion bolts or other fixing devices.
The road surface condition monitor 7 is installed on the support rod 9 through the cloud platform, and through carrying on the cloud platform to the road surface condition monitor, realize 360 horizontal lookaround, increased road surface condition monitor 7's monitoring range. Meanwhile, in order to increase the monitoring range of other sensors, the other sensors can also be carried with the holder.
On the basis of the above embodiment, as a further preferable mode, the cloud platform 4 includes the server 3, the PC 1, and the mobile terminal 2, and the server 3, the PC 1, and the mobile terminal 2 are all in signal connection with the information processing apparatus 5.
It should be noted that the server 3 may be docked with a traffic or public security related system, and provide powerful support for road management and control and maintenance work of a traffic administration department through data analysis. The server 3, the PC 1 and the mobile terminal 2 are provided with display screens, visual early warning and monitoring are carried out in the whole process, and high intellectualization and flexibility are achieved; in addition, on-site traffic safety information service warning reminding can be provided for the mobile terminal 2 and the PC terminal 1, and meanwhile, relevant departments can carry out road icing early warning on a driver in time through multiple channels and multiple paths to remind the driver of cautious driving, so that the traffic accident occurrence probability can be greatly reduced.
In order to simplify the wiring, facilitate the arrangement and reduce the potential safety hazard, it is further preferable that the weather monitoring device and the information processing device 5 are connected by wireless signals on the basis of the above-described embodiment.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same or similar parts in the embodiments are referred to each other.
The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method and the intelligent icing monitoring and early warning system provided by the invention are introduced in detail above. The principles and embodiments of the present invention are explained herein using specific examples, which are presented only to assist in understanding the method and its core concepts. It should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, it is possible to make various improvements and modifications to the present invention without departing from the principle of the present invention, and those improvements and modifications also fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. An icing intelligent monitoring and early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
monitoring meteorological information of a preset road section and acquiring road surface information of the preset road section;
establishing an icing probability prediction model, and analyzing the meteorological information of the preset road section and the road surface information of the preset road section;
and outputting a road condition prediction result and issuing an icing early warning grade.
2. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method according to claim 1, wherein the monitoring of the meteorological information of the preset road section further comprises:
and selecting the preset road section, and arranging a meteorological and pavement monitoring device on the road section.
3. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method according to claim 2, wherein the selecting the preset road section comprises:
acquiring the monthly average road icing days of each road section in a preset area, and analyzing the icing time trend and the icing duration time distribution of each road section;
and selecting the preset road sections by combining the macroscopic temperature distribution characteristic analysis of each road section displayed by the thermal spectrum map and the temperature change relevance of different road sections.
4. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method according to claim 2, further comprising:
and arranging a deicing device on the selected preset road section.
5. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning method according to claim 3, wherein the road surface information of the preset road section is obtained through a thermal spectrum map.
6. The utility model provides an icing intelligent monitoring early warning system which characterized in that, includes meteorological monitoring device, information processing device (5) and cloud platform (4), predetermine icing probability prediction model and thermogram in information processing device (5), cloud platform (4) respectively with meteorological monitoring device with information processing device (5) signal connection.
7. The icing intelligent monitoring and early warning system according to claim 6, wherein the meteorological monitoring device comprises a road surface condition monitor (7), an ultrasonic meteorological station (6), a visibility meter (8), a road surface temperature sensor, a road surface humidity sensor, a rainfall sensor and an air temperature and humidity sensor which are respectively in signal connection with the information processing device (5), and the road surface condition monitor (7), the ultrasonic meteorological station (6), the visibility meter (8), the road surface temperature sensor, the road surface humidity sensor, the rainfall sensor, the air temperature and humidity sensor and the information processing device (5) are all arranged on a support rod (9).
8. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning system according to claim 7, wherein the road surface condition monitor (7) is mounted on the support rod (9) through a cradle head.
9. The intelligent icing monitoring and early warning system according to claim 6, wherein the cloud platform (4) comprises a server (3), a PC (personal computer) end (1) and a mobile terminal (2), and the server (3), the PC end (1) and the mobile terminal (2) are in signal connection with the information processing device (5).
10. The icing intelligent monitoring and early warning system according to claim 6, wherein the meteorological monitoring device and the information processing device (5) are connected through wireless signals.
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