CN114004384A - Project progress deviation early warning method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a project progress deviation early warning method and device, which comprise the following steps: determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress; determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress; early warning is carried out on the basis of a comprehensive judgment factor of project progress; wherein the degree of difference of the project progress comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference. The technical scheme provided by the invention realizes accurate prediction of project progress, is beneficial to relevant departments to master the project progress plan execution condition in time, adopts effective correction in time and has remarkable social benefit.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of engineering project management, in particular to a project progress deviation early warning method and device.
Background
At present, a full-caliber whole-process system realizes the through work from planning to construction, but still has a plurality of problems. The power grid project schedule management is an important guarantee that a power grid project is completed on time, wherein the cost and the investment condition are important influence factors influencing the construction progress, and if the construction progress can be timely known, the current progress state needs to be pre-warned. The early warning is to predict and warn the future condition according to the current state of a specific research object; the basis of electric power development early warning mainly comprises two points: firstly, the scene fluctuation exists in the power development process, and secondly, some problems in the power scene fluctuation process can be exposed or reflected firstly through monitoring indexes.
The current progress plan management focuses on construction progress management, analysis on cost and investment progress is lacked, comprehensive statistics and analysis on progress plan execution conditions and effective deviation correction timely are not facilitated for capital construction departments and owner project departments, and therefore a proper model is built, and accurate prediction on power grid project progress is achieved.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a project progress deviation early warning method and a project progress deviation early warning device, which are used for decomposing and refining a milestone plan in a construction implementation stage, comprehensively considering the construction progress, the cost progress and the investment progress, constructing a power grid engineering project progress prediction model, determining an alarm degree division standard by considering the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference, the investment progress difference and the coordination and consistency of three deviations, and providing early warning response measures.
The invention provides a project progress deviation early warning method, which is improved in that the method comprises the following steps:
determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress;
determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress;
carrying out early warning based on a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress;
wherein the degree of difference of the project progress comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference.
Preferably, the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference include:
determining the construction progress difference degree delta B according to the following formula:
ΔB＝B1-B0；
determining the cost progress difference degree deltaC according to the following formula:
ΔC＝C1-C0；
determining the investment progress difference degree delta I according to the following formula:
ΔI＝I1-I0；
in the above formula, B1The percentage of the currently finished work amount to the total work amount, B0As a percentage of the total project volume, C1The cost of the current actual consumption accounts for the total engineering cost, C0The cost charge for the planned investment as a percentage of the total engineering cost, I1As a percentage of the total investment currently received, I0The investment received for the plan is a percentage of the total investment.
Furthermore, the value ranges of the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference are [ -1,1 ].
Preferably, the determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress includes:
determining a deviation factor DF of project progress according to the following formula:
DF＝|ΔB|+|ΔC|+|ΔI|；
the coordination factor CF of the project progress is determined as follows:
CF＝|ΔB-ΔC|+|ΔB-ΔI|+|ΔC-ΔI|；
in the above formula, Δ B is a construction progress difference, Δ C is a cost progress difference, and Δ I is an investment progress difference.
Further, the value range of the deviation factor of the project progress is [0,3], and the value range of the coordination factor of the project progress is [0,4 ].
Preferably, the determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress includes:
determining a comprehensive judgment factor JF of project progress according to the following formula:
JF＝DF+CF
in the above formula, DF is a deviation factor of project progress, and CF is a coordination factor of project progress.
Preferably, the early warning based on the comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress comprises:
when JF is 0, no early warning is given;
when JF belongs to (0, 1.75), a blue early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to 1.75 and 3.5], a yellow early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to (3.5, 5.25), an orange early warning is sent out;
when JF epsilon (5.25, 7), a red early warning is sent out.
The invention provides a project progress deviation early warning device, and the improvement is that the project progress deviation early warning device comprises:
the first data processing module is used for determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress;
the second data processing module is used for determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress;
the early warning module is used for carrying out early warning based on a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress;
wherein the degree of difference of project schedules of the first data processing module comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference.
Preferably, the first data processing module includes:
a first calculating unit, configured to determine the construction progress difference Δ B according to the following formula:
ΔB＝B1-B0；
a second calculating unit, configured to determine the cost progress difference Δ C according to the following formula:
ΔC＝C1-C0；
a third calculating unit, configured to determine the investment progress difference Δ I according to the following formula:
ΔI＝I1-I0；
in the above formula, B1The percentage of the currently finished work amount to the total work amount, B0As a percentage of the total project volume, C1The cost of the current actual consumption accounts for the total engineering cost, C0The cost charge for the planned investment as a percentage of the total engineering cost, I1As a percentage of the total investment currently received, I0The investment received for the plan is a percentage of the total investment.
Furthermore, the value ranges of the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference are [ -1,1 ].
Preferably, the first data processing module further includes:
a fourth calculating unit, configured to determine a deviation factor DF of the project progress according to the following formula:
DF＝|ΔB|+|ΔC|+|ΔI|；
a fifth calculating unit, configured to determine a coordination factor CF of the project progress according to the following formula:
CF＝|ΔB-ΔC|+|ΔB-ΔI|+|ΔC-ΔI|；
in the above formula, Δ B is a construction progress difference, Δ C is a cost progress difference, and Δ I is an investment progress difference.
Further, the value range of the deviation factor of the project progress is [0,3], and the value range of the coordination factor of the project progress is [0,4 ].
Preferably, the second data processing module is specifically configured to:
determining a comprehensive judgment factor JF of project progress according to the following formula:
JF＝DF+CF
in the above formula, DF is a deviation factor of project progress, and CF is a coordination factor of project progress.
Preferably, the early warning module is specifically configured to:
when JF is 0, no early warning is given;
when JF belongs to (0, 1.75), a blue early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to 1.75 and 3.5], a yellow early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to (3.5, 5.25), an orange early warning is sent out;
when JF epsilon (5.25, 7), a red early warning is sent out.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
(1) in the technical scheme provided by the invention, a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress are determined according to the difference degree of the project progress; determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress; early warning is carried out on the basis of a comprehensive judgment factor of project progress; wherein the degree of difference of the project progress comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference; the scheme improves the accuracy of prediction, is beneficial to relevant departments to grasp the execution condition of the project schedule in time and correct the project schedule effectively in time.
(2) The technical scheme provided by the invention is based on the comprehensive judgment factor early warning of the project progress, and can adopt corresponding early warning response measures in time to ensure the planned stable execution of the project progress.
(3) The technical scheme provided by the invention realizes accurate prediction of the project progress of the power grid and has remarkable social benefit.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a project progress early warning method;
FIG. 2 is a graph comparing the percentage of the currently completed work volume to the total work volume and the percentage of the planned completed work volume to the total work volume in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph comparing the percentage of the cost currently actually consumed to the total engineering cost and the percentage of the cost projected to be invested to the total engineering cost in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph comparing a currently received investment as a percentage of a total investment and a projected received investment as a percentage of the total investment in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a structural diagram of a project progress deviation warning device.
Detailed Description
The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention provides a project progress early warning method, as shown in fig. 1, comprising the following steps:
102, determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress;
and 103, early warning is carried out based on the comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress.
Wherein the degree of difference of the project progress comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference;
in order to further optimize the above technical solution, the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference, and the investment progress difference include:
determining the construction progress difference degree delta B according to the following formula:
ΔB＝B1-B0；
determining the cost progress difference degree deltaC according to the following formula:
ΔC＝C1-C0；
determining the investment progress difference degree delta I according to the following formula:
ΔI＝I1-I0；
in the above formula, B1The percentage of the currently finished work amount to the total work amount, B0As a percentage of the total project volume, C1The cost of the current actual consumption accounts for the total engineering cost, C0The cost charge for the planned investment as a percentage of the total engineering cost, I1As a percentage of the total investment currently received, I0The investment received for the plan is a percentage of the total investment.
Furthermore, the value ranges of the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference are [ -1,1 ].
In the best embodiment of the invention, a certain power transmission and transformation project is selected, the project newly builds 1 seat of a 110 kilovolt transformer station, 2 lines of the 110 kilovolt, the length of the line is 7.85 kilometers, 2 transformers, the capacity of the line is 4 kilovolt, the batch investment is 2946 ten thousand yuan, and the initial budget is 2797 ten thousand yuan.
Shown in Table 1 is the percentage B of the total work volume of the currently completed work volume1Percentage of planned work volume to total work volume B0The percentage C of the cost of the current actual consumption to the total engineering cost1The percentage of the planned investment cost to the total engineering cost C0The percentage of the currently received investment to the total investment I1And the percentage I of the total investment of the investment amount planned to be received0The data collection table of (1).
TABLE 1
Obtained according to table 1: fig. 2 is a graph showing a comparison of a percentage of a currently completed project amount to a percentage of a planned completed project amount to a total project amount, fig. 3 is a graph showing a comparison of a percentage of a currently actually consumed cost to a total project cost and a percentage of a planned input cost to a total project cost, and fig. 4 is a graph showing a comparison of a percentage of a currently received investment money to a total investment money and a percentage of a planned received investment money to a total investment money.
Further, after obtaining the difference degree of the project progress, the embodiment provided by the present invention may determine the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress, including:
determining a deviation factor DF of project progress according to the following formula:
DF＝|ΔB|+|ΔC|+|ΔI|；
the coordination factor CF of the project progress is determined as follows:
CF＝|ΔB-ΔC|+|ΔB-ΔI|+|ΔC-ΔI|；
in the above formula, Δ B is a construction progress difference, Δ C is a cost progress difference, and Δ I is an investment progress difference.
Further, the value range of the deviation factor of the project progress is [0,3], and the value range of the coordination factor of the project progress is [0,4 ].
Then, determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress, wherein the comprehensive judgment factor comprises the following steps:
determining a comprehensive judgment factor JF of project progress according to the following formula:
JF＝DF+CF
in the above formula, DF is a deviation factor of project progress, and CF is a coordination factor of project progress.
In the preferred embodiment of the present invention, the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference, the investment progress difference, the deviation factor of the project progress, the coordination factor and the comprehensive judgment factor are calculated according to the data in table 1, and the calculation results are shown in table 2.
TABLE 2
| Time | ΔB | ΔC | ΔI | DF | CF | JF |
| 2017.4 | 0 | -0.0737 | 0 | 0.0737 | 0.1474 | 0.2211 |
| 2017.5 | 0 | -0.0882 | 0 | 0.0882 | 0.1764 | 0.2646 |
| 2017.6 | 0 | -0.1027 | 0 | 0.1027 | 0.2054 | 0.3081 |
| Time | ΔB | ΔC | ΔI | DF | CF | JF |
| 2017.7 | 0 | -0.0535 | 0 | 0.0535 | 0.107 | 0.1605 |
| 2017.8 | 0 | -0.068 | 0 | 0.068 | 0.136 | 0.204 |
| 2017.9 | -0.0083 | -0.0274 | 0.001 | 0.0367 | 0.0568 | 0.0935 |
| 2017.10 | -0.0531 | -0.0576 | 0.1582 | 0.2689 | 0.4316 | 0.7005 |
| 2017.11 | -0.0963 | -0.0766 | 0.197 | 0.3699 | 0.5866 | 0.9565 |
| 2017.12 | -0.0936 | -0.0831 | 0.212 | 0.3887 | 0.6112 | 0.9999 |
| 2018.1 | -0.0791 | -0.0699 | 0.2041 | 0.3531 | 0.5664 | 0.9195 |
| 2018.2 | -0.1379 | 0.0298 | 0.237 | 0.4047 | 0.7498 | 1.1545 |
Finally, early warning is carried out based on a comprehensive judgment factor of project progress, and the early warning method comprises the following steps:
when JF is 0, no early warning is given;
when JF belongs to (0, 1.75), a blue early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to 1.75 and 3.5], a yellow early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to (3.5, 5.25), an orange early warning is sent out;
when JF epsilon (5.25, 7), a red early warning is sent out.
In the best embodiment of the invention, according to the data in table 2, the values of the comprehensive judgment factors JF are all less than 1.75, so that the item currently gives out a blue early warning; according to the early warning response rule formulated in the table 3, the construction coordination responsibility or the construction cost management expert should pay attention to and coordinate; with the lapse of time, the comprehensive judgment factor JF tends to increase, which indicates that the progress deviation increases, and related personnel should pay attention to the increase, and reasonably control the deviation range.
TABLE 3
The invention provides a project progress deviation early warning device, as shown in fig. 5, comprising:
the first data processing module is used for determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress;
the second data processing module is used for determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress;
the early warning module is used for carrying out early warning based on a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress;
wherein the degree of difference of project schedules of the first data processing module comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference.
Preferably, the first data processing module includes:
a first calculating unit, configured to determine the construction progress difference Δ B according to the following formula:
ΔB＝B1-B0；
a second calculating unit, configured to determine the cost progress difference Δ C according to the following formula:
ΔC＝C1-C0；
a third calculating unit, configured to determine the investment progress difference Δ I according to the following formula:
ΔI＝I1-I0；
in the above formula, B1The percentage of the currently finished work amount to the total work amount, B0As a percentage of the total project volume, C1The cost of the current actual consumption accounts for the total engineering cost, C0The cost charge for the planned investment as a percentage of the total engineering cost, I1As a percentage of the total investment currently received, I0The investment received for the plan is a percentage of the total investment.
Furthermore, the value ranges of the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference are [ -1,1 ].
Preferably, the first data processing module further includes:
a fourth calculating unit, configured to determine a deviation factor DF of the project progress according to the following formula:
DF＝|ΔB|+|ΔC|+|ΔI|；
a fifth calculating unit, configured to determine a coordination factor CF of the project progress according to the following formula:
CF＝|ΔB-ΔC|+|ΔB-ΔI|+|ΔC-ΔI|；
in the above formula, Δ B is a construction progress difference, Δ C is a cost progress difference, and Δ I is an investment progress difference.
Further, the value range of the deviation factor of the project progress is [0,3], and the value range of the coordination factor of the project progress is [0,4 ].
Preferably, the second data processing module is specifically configured to:
determining a comprehensive judgment factor JF of project progress according to the following formula:
JF＝DF+CF
in the above formula, DF is a deviation factor of project progress, and CF is a coordination factor of project progress.
Preferably, the early warning module is specifically configured to:
when JF is 0, no early warning is given;
when JF belongs to (0, 1.75), a blue early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to 1.75 and 3.5], a yellow early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to (3.5, 5.25), an orange early warning is sent out;
when JF epsilon (5.25, 7), a red early warning is sent out.
It is to be understood that the embodiments described are only a few embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (14)
1. A project progress deviation early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress;
determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress;
carrying out early warning based on a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress;
wherein the degree of difference of the project progress comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference.
2. The project progress deviation pre-warning method according to claim 1, wherein the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference comprise:
determining the construction progress difference degree delta B according to the following formula:
ΔB＝B1-B0；
determining the cost progress difference degree deltaC according to the following formula:
ΔC＝C1-C0；
determining the investment progress difference degree delta I according to the following formula:
ΔI＝I1-I0；
in the above formula, B1The percentage of the currently finished work amount to the total work amount, B0As a percentage of the total project volume, C1The cost of the current actual consumption accounts for the total engineering cost, C0The cost charge for the planned investment as a percentage of the total engineering cost, I1As a percentage of the total investment currently received, I0The investment received for the plan is a percentage of the total investment.
3. The project progress deviation early warning method according to claim 2, wherein the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference are all in the range of [ -1,1 ].
4. The project progress deviation pre-warning method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the determining deviation factors and coordination factors of project progress according to the degree of difference of project progress comprises:
determining a deviation factor DF of project progress according to the following formula:
DF＝|ΔB|+|ΔC|+|ΔI|；
the coordination factor CF of the project progress is determined as follows:
CF＝|ΔB-ΔC|+|ΔB-ΔI|+|ΔC-ΔI|；
in the above formula, Δ B is a construction progress difference, Δ C is a cost progress difference, and Δ I is an investment progress difference.
5. The project progress deviation early warning method according to claim 4, wherein the deviation factor of the project progress has a value range of [0,3], and the coordination factor of the project progress has a value range of [0,4 ].
6. The project progress deviation early warning method according to claim 1, wherein the determining of the comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress comprises:
determining a comprehensive judgment factor JF of project progress according to the following formula:
JF＝DF+CF
in the above formula, DF is a deviation factor of project progress, and CF is a coordination factor of project progress.
7. The project progress deviation early warning method according to claim 1, wherein the early warning based on the comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress comprises:
when JF is 0, no early warning is given;
when JF belongs to (0, 1.75), a blue early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to 1.75 and 3.5], a yellow early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to (3.5, 5.25), an orange early warning is sent out;
when JF epsilon (5.25, 7), a red early warning is sent out.
8. A project progress deviation warning device, characterized in that the device comprises:
the first data processing module is used for determining a deviation factor and a coordination factor of the project progress according to the difference degree of the project progress;
the second data processing module is used for determining a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress according to the deviation factor and the coordination factor of the project progress;
the early warning module is used for carrying out early warning based on a comprehensive judgment factor of the project progress;
wherein the degree of difference of project schedules of the first data processing module comprises: construction progress difference, cost progress difference and investment progress difference.
9. The project progress deviation warning device according to claim 8, wherein the first data processing module comprises:
a first calculating unit, configured to determine the construction progress difference Δ B according to the following formula:
ΔB＝B1-B0；
a second calculating unit, configured to determine the cost progress difference Δ C according to the following formula:
ΔC＝C1-C0；
a third calculating unit, configured to determine the investment progress difference Δ I according to the following formula:
ΔI＝I1-I0；
in the above formula, B1The percentage of the currently finished work amount to the total work amount, B0As a percentage of the total project volume, C1The cost of the current actual consumption accounts for the total engineering cost, C0The cost charge for the planned investment as a percentage of the total engineering cost, I1As a percentage of the total investment currently received, I0The investment received for the plan is a percentage of the total investment.
10. The project progress deviation pre-warning device according to claim 9, wherein the construction progress difference, the cost progress difference and the investment progress difference are all in the range of [ -1,1 ].
11. The project progress deviation warning device according to claim 8, wherein the first data processing module further comprises:
a fourth calculating unit, configured to determine a deviation factor DF of the project progress according to the following formula:
DF＝|ΔB|+|ΔC|+|ΔI|；
a fifth calculating unit, configured to determine a coordination factor CF of the project progress according to the following formula:
CF＝|ΔB-ΔC|+|ΔB-ΔI|+|ΔC-ΔI|；
in the above formula, Δ B is a construction progress difference, Δ C is a cost progress difference, and Δ I is an investment progress difference.
12. The device of claim 11, wherein the deviation factor of the project progress has a value range of [0,3], and the coordination factor of the project progress has a value range of [0,4 ].
13. The project progress deviation warning device according to claim 8, wherein the second data processing module is specifically configured to:
determining a comprehensive judgment factor JF of project progress according to the following formula:
JF＝DF+CF
in the above formula, DF is a deviation factor of project progress, and CF is a coordination factor of project progress.
14. The project progress deviation warning device of claim 8, wherein the warning module is specifically configured to:
when JF is 0, no early warning is given;
when JF belongs to (0, 1.75), a blue early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to 1.75 and 3.5], a yellow early warning is sent out;
when JF belongs to (3.5, 5.25), an orange early warning is sent out;
when JF epsilon (5.25, 7), a red early warning is sent out.
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