CN113806865A - Method for predicting temperature deviation - Google Patents

Method for predicting temperature deviation Download PDF

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CN113806865A
CN113806865A CN202111067123.3A CN202111067123A CN113806865A CN 113806865 A CN113806865 A CN 113806865A CN 202111067123 A CN202111067123 A CN 202111067123A CN 113806865 A CN113806865 A CN 113806865A
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CN113806865B (en
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王丹
陈芳
马航帅
薛广龙
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China Aeronautical Radio Electronics Research Institute
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting temperature deviation, which comprises the steps of obtaining a temperature deviation measured value of the current position of an airplane measured by an airborne atmospheric data computer in real time, and obtaining a temperature deviation predicted value of a predicted point on a multifunctional control display unit; and after confirming whether the predicted point is in a climbing stage, a cruising stage or a descending stage and the relative geometrical relationship between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, calculating the predicted value of the temperature deviation of the predicted point. The method comprehensively considers the influence of the relative position relation between the real-time position of the airplane and the predicted point on the predicted temperature of the predicted point during implementation, and effectively improves the capabilities of performance optimization calculation, arrival time prediction, actual oil consumption and flight time estimation of a flight management system. The method can effectively support four-dimensional track operation, flight interval management, altitude level change and conflict management, is a method easy for engineering realization, and has important practical application significance for the operation of aircrafts in the civil field, particularly for supporting the operation of required arrival time.

Description

Method for predicting temperature deviation
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of flight management, and relates to a method for predicting temperature deviation.
Background
Meteorological information has a significant impact on the performance prediction of an aircraft. For aircraft forecasting, the connotation of meteorological information includes temperature, pressure, and wind. Accurate weather predictions would greatly improve the ability to optimize calculations and time of arrival forecasts, as well as estimates of actual fuel consumption and time of flight. Under FAA new generation air traffic system (NextGen) and european single sky (SESAR) initiatives, accurate weather information is very important for the conception of some future air traffic concepts. Accurate weather information will affect time-based traffic management, including specifically four-dimensional track (4d rad) operation, Flight Interval Management (FIM), altitude layer change (ITP), and conflict management (ACM), among others.
Predicting the conditions of temperature, pressure and wind that will be encountered during flight is part of the flight plan management process. Predictions of temperature, pressure, and wind make the flight path predictions of the flight management system more accurate to provide more accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA), fuel consumption, climb/descent rates, and construction of leg transitions.
The multifunction display control unit (MCDU) is the direct dialog window between the pilot and the flight management system, through which the pilot can directly enter forecasted temperature and forecasted wind data. The pilot may also request the airline operations control center to send the forecasted temperature and forecasted wind data to the flight management system via the data link by pressing a weather information request button on the MCDU. There are two forms of predicted temperature on the MCDU, one is ISA offset, which can be applied throughout the flight phase; the other is a leg ISA offset, corresponding to each leg. The airborne atmosphere data computer can measure the temperature of the current position of the airplane in real time. The flight management system can predict the predicted temperature of the subsequent point in real time according to the measured temperature information of the current position of the airplane and the predicted temperature information on the MCDU.
The four-dimensional flight path operation, flight interval management, altitude level change and conflict management are new concepts for civil aircraft manufacturers, scientific research institutes and design companies in China. The difference between China and abroad is large, and various colleges and universities in China are always pursuing the development of foreign technologies, and a series of technical researches on wind prediction are carried out, for example, some scientific research units carry out wind prediction technical researches based on data chain grid wind, digital control workstations based on flight path operation and the like. But the prediction of temperature deviation is rarely relevant at home.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for predicting temperature deviation, which meets the requirements of four-dimensional flight path operation, flight interval management, altitude level change and conflict management on temperature prediction accuracy. The innovation points and difficulties of the method are as follows: the method fully utilizes limited resources such as measured temperature information of the current position of the airplane, forecast temperature information of a forecast point, relative geometric relation between the current position of the airplane and the forecast point and the like, and calculates the forecast temperature information of the current forecast point by a virtual airplane method. The method comprehensively considers the influence of the relative position relation between the real-time position of the airplane and the predicted point on the predicted temperature of the predicted point during implementation.
The invention aims to be realized by the following technical scheme:
a method of predicting a temperature offset, comprising the steps of:
step 1, obtaining a temperature deviation measured value ISA delta of the current position of an airplane measured in real time by an airborne atmospheric data computermObtaining a predicted value ISA Delta of the temperature deviation of the predicted point on the multifunction control display unitf；
Step 2, after confirming whether the predicted point is in a climbing stage, a cruising stage or a descending stage and the relative geometrical relationship between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, combining the ISA delta obtained in the step 1mAnd ISA DeltafTo calculate the predicted temperature deviation value ISA delta of the predicted pointp。
Preferably, in step 2, if the predicted point is in the climbing phase, the predicted temperature deviation value ISA Δ of the predicted pointp＝ISAΔf。
Preferably, in step 2, if the predicted point is in the cruising stage, the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section is calculatedDifference in distanceSetting a distance difference threshold dDistance difference threshold；
(a) If d isDifference in distance≤dDistance difference thresholdThen, ISA Delta is calculated using the following equationp：
ISAΔp＝{[(dDistance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)*ISAΔm]+dDifference in distance*ISAΔf}/dDistance difference threshold
(b) If d isDifference in distance＞dDistance difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf。
Preferably, in step 2, if the predicted point is in the descent phase, the height difference h between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section is calculatedHeight differenceSetting a height difference threshold hHeight difference threshold(ii) a Calculating the distance d between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point of the vertical sectionDifference in distanceSetting a distance difference threshold dDistance difference threshold：
(a) If the current position of the aircraft is after the descent peak, if hHeight difference≤hHeight difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝{[(hHeight difference threshold-hHeight difference)*ISAΔm]+hHeight difference*ISAΔf}/hHeight difference threshold；
If h isHeight difference＞hHeight difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf；
(b) If the current position of the airplane is in front of the descending peak, a virtual airplane is assumed to be above the cruising altitude, and the difference h between the virtual airplane and the cruising altitude is assumedVirtual height differenceUsing the formula (d)Distance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)/dDistance difference threshold＝(hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference thresholdCalculate hVirtual height difference；
If h isHeight difference≤hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceAnd then:
ISAΔp＝(hheight difference threshold-(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference))/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔm+(hHeight difference+hVirtualizationHeight difference)/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔf；
If h isHeight difference＞hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf。
Preferably, in step 1, the temperature offset prediction value ISA Δ on the MCDUfThe request is directly input by a pilot or sent to the flight management system by pressing a meteorological information request key on the multifunctional control display unit through a data link.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a method for predicting temperature by deviation, which fully utilizes limited resources such as measured temperature information of the current position of an airplane, forecast temperature information of a predicted point, relative geometric relationship between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point and the like to calculate the predicted temperature value of the predicted point. The method can effectively improve the performance optimization calculation, arrival time prediction, actual oil consumption and flight time estimation capabilities of the flight management system. The method can effectively support four-dimensional flight path operation, flight interval management, altitude level change, conflict management and the like, is a method easy for engineering realization, and has important practical application significance for the operation of aircrafts in the civil field, particularly for supporting the operation of required arrival time.
Drawings
FIG. 1 shows the predicted point during the climb phase.
FIG. 2 shows the predicted point at the cruise phase.
FIG. 3 shows the predicted point at the descent phase and the aircraft after TOD.
FIG. 4 shows the predicted point at descent and the aircraft before TOD.
FIG. 5 is an example of a predicted point at descent and an aircraft before TOD.
FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting temperature offset according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
The embodiment provides a method for predicting temperature deviation for requirements of four-dimensional flight path operation, flight interval management, altitude level change and conflict management on temperature prediction accuracy. The method fully utilizes limited resources such as actual measurement temperature information of the current position of the airplane, forecast temperature information of the forecast point, relative geometric relationship between the current position of the airplane and the forecast point and the like to calculate the temperature forecast value of the forecast point. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, obtaining a temperature deviation measured value ISA delta of the current position of an airplane measured in real time by an airborne atmospheric data computermObtaining a predicted value ISA Delta of the temperature deviation of the predicted point on the multifunction control display unitf. Temperature offset prediction value ISA delta on a MCDUfThe request can be directly input by a pilot or can be sent to a flight management system by a data link through pressing a meteorological information request button on the MCDU to request the operation control center of the airline company.
Step 2, after confirming whether the predicted point is in a climbing stage, a cruising stage or a descending stage and the relative geometrical relationship between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, combining the ISA delta obtained in the step 1mAnd ISA DeltafTo calculate the predicted temperature deviation value ISA delta of the predicted pointp。
As shown in FIG. 1, if the predicted point is in the climbing stage, the predicted temperature deviation value ISA Delta of the predicted pointp＝ISAΔf。
As shown in FIG. 2, if the predicted point is in the cruising stage, the distance d between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point of the vertical section is calculatedDifference in distanceSetting a distance difference threshold dDistance difference threshold；
(a) If d isDifference in distance≤dDistance difference thresholdThen, ISA Delta is calculated using the following equationp：
ISAΔp＝{[(dDistance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)*ISAΔm]+dDifference in distance*ISAΔf}/dDistance difference threshold。
(b) If d isDifference in distance＞dDistance difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf。
If the predicted point is in the descending stage, the relative position of the airplane and the descending vertex TOD is judged, and the height difference h between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point of the vertical section is calculatedHeight differenceSetting a height difference threshold hHeight difference threshold(ii) a Calculating the distance d between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point of the vertical sectionDifference in distanceSetting a distance difference threshold dDistance difference threshold：
(a) As shown in FIG. 3, if the current aircraft position is after TOD, if hHeight difference≤hHeight difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝{[(hHeight difference threshold-hHeight difference)*ISAΔm]+hHeight difference*ISAΔf}/hHeight difference threshold；
If h isHeight difference＞hHeight difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf
(b) As shown in FIG. 4, if the current aircraft position is before TOD, assume that a virtual aircraft is above cruise altitude, assume that the virtual aircraft is at cruise altitude h away fromVirtual height differenceUsing the formula (d)Distance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)/dDistance difference threshold＝(hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference thresholdCalculate hVirtual height difference。
If h isHeight difference≤hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceAnd then:
ISAΔp＝(hheight difference threshold-(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference))/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔm+(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔf；
If h isHeight difference＞hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf。
By way of example, as shown in FIG. 5, the aircraft is at 35000ft, at cruise, and at a distance TOD point of 100NM, a temperature offset measurement of the location of the aircraftValue ISA DeltamPredicted values for predicted point temperature excursions at-8 ℃ are ISA ΔfAt +6 ℃. Assuming a set distance difference threshold dDistance difference thresholdA height difference threshold h of 400NMHeight difference thresholdIs 10000 ft. First of all use (d)Distance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)/dDistance difference threshold＝(hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference thresholdCalculate hVirtual height differenceI.e. (400NM-100NM)/400NM ═ 10000ft-hVirtual height difference) 10000ft, then hVirtual height difference2500 ft. At this time hHeight difference≤hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceThat is, 3000ft is less than or equal to 10000ft-2500ft, the predicted value ISA delta of the predicted point temperature shift is calculated by the following formulap＝(hHeight difference threshold-(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference))/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔm+(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔf＝(10000-(3000+2500))/10000*(-8℃)+(3000+2500)/10000*(+6℃)＝-0.3℃。
It should be understood that equivalents and modifications of the technical solution and inventive concept thereof may occur to those skilled in the art, and all such modifications and alterations should fall within the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (5)

1. A method of predicting a temperature excursion, comprising the steps of:
step 1, obtaining a temperature deviation measured value ISA delta of the current position of an airplane measured in real time by an airborne atmospheric data computermObtaining a predicted value ISA Delta of the temperature deviation of the predicted point on the multifunction control display unitf；
Step 2, after confirming whether the predicted point is in a climbing stage, a cruising stage or a descending stage and the relative geometrical relationship between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point, combining the ISA delta obtained in the step 1mAnd ISA DeltafTo calculate the predicted temperature deviation value ISA delta of the predicted pointp。
2. The method of claim 1, wherein in step 2, if the predicted point is in the climbing phase, the predicted temperature shift value ISA Delta of the predicted pointp＝ISAΔf。
3. The method of claim 1, wherein in step 2, if the predicted point is in the cruise phase, the distance d between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point on the vertical section is calculatedDifference in distanceSetting a distance difference threshold dDistance difference threshold；
(a) If d isDifference in distance≤dDistance difference thresholdThen, ISA Delta is calculated using the following equationp：
ISAΔp＝{[(dDistance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)*ISAΔm]+dDifference in distance*ISAΔf}/dDistance difference threshold
(b) If d isDifference in distance>dDistance difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf。
4. The method of claim 1, wherein in step 2, if the predicted point is in descent phase, the height difference h between the current position of the aircraft and the predicted point of the vertical section is calculatedHeight differenceSetting a height difference threshold hHeight difference threshold(ii) a Calculating the distance d between the current position of the airplane and the predicted point of the vertical sectionDifference in distanceSetting a distance difference threshold dDistance difference threshold：
(a) If the current position of the aircraft is after the descent peak, if hHeight difference≤hHeight difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝{[(hHeight difference threshold-hHeight difference)*ISAΔm]+hHeight difference*ISAΔf}/hHeight difference threshold；
If h isHeight difference>hHeight difference thresholdThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf；
(b) If the current position of the airplane is in front of the descending peak, a virtual airplane is assumed to be above the cruising altitude, and the difference h between the virtual airplane and the cruising altitude is assumedVirtual height differenceUsing the formula (d)Distance difference threshold-dDifference in distance)/dDistance difference threshold＝(hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference thresholdCalculate hVirtual height difference；
If h isHeight difference≤hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceAnd then:
ISAΔp＝(hheight difference threshold-(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference))/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔm+(hHeight difference+hVirtual height difference)/hHeight difference threshold*ISAΔf；
If h isHeight difference>hHeight difference threshold-hVirtual height differenceThen ISA deltap＝ISAΔf。
5. The method of claim 1, wherein in step 1, the predicted temperature deviation value ISA Delta is displayed on the multi-function control display unitfThe request is directly input by a pilot or sent to the flight management system by pressing a meteorological information request key on the multifunctional control display unit through a data link.
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