CN113762728A - Hierarchical reliability management system and method for power distribution network - Google Patents

Hierarchical reliability management system and method for power distribution network Download PDF

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CN113762728A
CN113762728A CN202110931399.5A CN202110931399A CN113762728A CN 113762728 A CN113762728 A CN 113762728A CN 202110931399 A CN202110931399 A CN 202110931399A CN 113762728 A CN113762728 A CN 113762728A
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power grid
saidi
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张钧
田鑫
向睿
张毅威
张琛
张玥
谢光龙
王旭斌
边海峰
柴玉凤
张晨
代贤忠
朱瑞
万子千
韩新阳
靳晓凌
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State Grid Energy Research Institute Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a hierarchical reliability management system and method for a power distribution network. The method comprises the following steps: s101, determining a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau; s102, establishing a hierarchical analysis model, and solving a reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a hierarchical analysis method; s103, distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient; and S104, calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement targets distributed to each urban power grid. The hierarchical reliability management system of the power distribution network solves the problems that in the prior art, the power distribution network management system only determines the power supply reliability planning scheme of the city-level and county-level power grids according to a certain factor and cannot achieve the maximization of the resource utilization value.

Description

Hierarchical reliability management system and method for power distribution network
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid enterprise safety management, in particular to a hierarchical reliability management system and method for a power distribution network.
Background
Power reliability work is one of the basic responsibilities of safety production management that power enterprises should perform. The power grid enterprise, as a main power supply enterprise in China, needs to guarantee the power supply reliability level of users. With the development of the social and economic level, the power supply reliability requirement of users is continuously improved, and the power supply reliability level of power grid enterprises is required to be continuously improved. Meanwhile, the power supply reliability level reflects the construction and management level of a power grid, the power failure frequency and the power failure duration can be directly increased when the power supply reliability of the power grid is not managed in place, the normal production and life of power consumers are influenced, and a large-scale power failure event even has adverse effects on the national economic development and social stability. The good power supply reliability management can effectively reduce the frequency of daily power failure and shorten the time of power failure, thereby improving the power utilization experience of users, reducing the probability of large-scale power failure and avoiding the occurrence of power accidents causing huge loss.
The power supply reliability management tasks of different levels of power grid enterprises are different. The power supply reliability management work of the provincial level mainly comprises the work of reliability planning, budget allocation and the like of the whole provincial level, and the reliability management work of the city level or county level power grid enterprises mainly comprises the collection, statistics and reporting of reliability data and the design of specific reliability improvement planning. When a power distribution network reliability management method of a provincial power company is researched, different economic development levels, power grid construction levels and power grid management levels of different areas in a provincial and network administration region need to be considered, a reliability target and a reliability planning strategy which are suitable for local development requirements and power grid levels are determined, and corresponding investment planning is carried out.
The existing research on security management quantification and optimization of provincial power grid power supply reliability has the following problems to be solved: 1) the difference of economic development, power grid construction and power grid management levels of different regions is not comprehensively considered, and a power supply reliability planning scheme of a city-level and county-level power grid is often determined only according to a certain factor; 2) A consistent and standardized power supply reliability quantitative planning method is lacked. Planning in different areas according to the experience of different planners, and the power supply reliability planning management cannot realize the maximization of the resource utilization value; 3) the budget allocation scheme is not clear, and a quantitative reliability budget allocation scheme of city-level and county-level power grid enterprises based on the power supply reliability planning target is not established.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a hierarchical reliability management system and a hierarchical reliability management method for a power distribution network, and the hierarchical reliability management system for the power distribution network can solve the problems that in the prior art, the power distribution network management system only determines a power supply reliability planning scheme of a city-level and county-level power grid according to a certain factor and cannot realize the maximization of resource utilization value.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a method for managing the hierarchical reliability of a power distribution network specifically comprises the following steps:
s101, determining a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau;
s102, establishing a hierarchical analysis model, and solving a reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a hierarchical analysis method;
s103, distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient;
and S104, calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement targets distributed to each urban power grid.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the invention can be further improved as follows:
further, the S101 specifically includes:
s1011, calculating a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level through a formula 1;
SAIDIn＝SAIDIn-1-α(SAIDIn-1-SAIDIn-j) /(j-1) equation 1;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd alpha is a reliability improvement reduction coefficient for the average power failure time of each household of the system in the ith year, and the specific numerical value can be calculated from historical data.
Further, the S102 specifically includes:
s1021, determining indexes representing power supply reliability requirements and power supply levels of a power grid; (ii) a
S1022, taking the average index of the provincial power grid as a reference value, and carrying out normalization processing on data corresponding to each layer of index;
s1023, reliability improvement priority coefficients of all regions are calculated through a formula 2;
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000031
in the formula, RiA priority coefficient is improved for the reliability of the ith subordinate city-level power grid; a. theiLayer 2 index for power supply reliability requirements, BjkAnd CjkThe indexes of the layer 3 under the power grid construction level and the power grid management level are respectively; omegaXThe specific value is the weight coefficient corresponding to the index X and can be calculated by a pair-wise comparison matrix.
Further, the S103 specifically includes:
s1031, calculating the SAIDI reduction percentage delta SAIDI in the planning period through formula 3-formula 5i％；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000032
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000033
ΔSAIDIi％＝CRiEquation 5;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd Δ SAIDIiRespectively obtaining SAIDI before the planning period of the ith subordinate city level power grid and SAIDI reduction values in the planning period; h isiThe number of the equivalent households of the ith subordinate city-level power grid is; c is a reliability assignment constant.
Further, the S104 specifically includes:
s1041, calculating a reliability planning budget Budgt of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period through a formula 6i；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000041
In the formula, BudgtallAnd managing the total budget for the reliability in the provincial power grid planning period.
A hierarchical reliability management system for a power distribution network, comprising:
the computing module is used for determining a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau;
the hierarchical analysis model is used for solving the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a hierarchical analysis method;
the distribution module is connected with the calculation module and the hierarchical analysis model and used for distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient;
and the processing module is connected with the distribution module and used for calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement target distributed to each urban power grid.
Further, the computing module is further to:
calculating a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level through a formula 1;
SAIDIn＝SAIDIn-1-α(SAIDIn-1-SAIDIn-j) /(j-1) equation 1;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd alpha is a reliability improvement reduction coefficient for the average power failure time of each household of the system in the ith year, and the specific numerical value can be calculated from historical data.
Further, the hierarchical analysis model is further configured to:
determining indexes representing power supply reliability requirements and power supply levels of a power grid;
taking the average index of the provincial power grid as a reference value, and carrying out normalization processing on data corresponding to each layer of index;
calculating the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a formula 2;
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000051
in the formula, RiA priority coefficient is improved for the reliability of the ith subordinate city-level power grid; a. theiLayer 2 index for power supply reliability requirements, BjkAnd CjkThe indexes of the layer 3 under the power grid construction level and the power grid management level are respectively; omegaXThe specific value is the weight coefficient corresponding to the index X and can be calculated by a pair-wise comparison matrix.
Further, the allocation module is further operable to:
calculating the SAIDI reduction percentage delta SAIDI in the planning period through formulas 3 to 5i％；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000052
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000053
ΔSAIDIi％＝CRiEquation 5;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd Δ SAIDIiRespectively obtaining SAIDI before the planning period of the ith subordinate city level power grid and SAIDI reduction values in the planning period; h isiThe number of the equivalent households of the ith subordinate city-level power grid is; c is a reliability assignment constant.
Further, the processing module is further configured to:
calculating the reliability planning budget Budgt of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period by a formula 6i；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000061
In the formula, BudgtallAnd managing the total budget for the reliability in the provincial power grid planning period.
The invention has the following advantages:
according to the hierarchical reliability management method of the power distribution network, the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level is determined according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability planning of the energy source bureau; establishing a hierarchical analysis model, and solving reliability promotion priority coefficients of all regions by using a hierarchical analysis method; distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient; calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement target distributed to each urban power grid; the problem that in the prior art, a power distribution network management system only determines a power supply reliability planning scheme of a city-level and county-level power grid according to a certain factor and cannot achieve resource utilization value maximization is solved.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for hierarchical reliability management of a power distribution network in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating an embodiment of S102;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical analysis model for determining reliability index improvement priorities according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a pair-wise comparison matrix element evaluation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical reliability management system of a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention.
A calculation module 10, a hierarchical analysis model 20, an allocation module 30 and a processing module 40.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the following embodiments, and it should be understood that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, a method for managing hierarchical reliability of a power distribution network specifically includes:
s101, determining a reliability improvement target of a provincial network level;
in the step, a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level is determined according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau;
s102, solving the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region;
in this step, a hierarchical analysis model 20 is established, and reliability improvement priority coefficients of each region are obtained through a hierarchical analysis method;
s103, distributing the reliability improvement targets to each city-level power grid;
in the step, according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient, distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial power grid layer to each urban power grid;
and S104, calculating the reliability planning budget of each city-level power grid.
In the step, the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid is calculated according to the reliability improvement targets distributed to each urban power grid.
The hierarchical reliability management method for the power distribution network has a universal quantitative reliability planning scheme, and the problem of inconsistent planning caused by subjectivity of planning personnel is solved. Reliability improvement priority coefficients calculated based on three indexes of economic development level, power grid construction level and power grid management level comprehensively represent power supply reliability improvement requirements and improvement potentials of various regions, reference is provided for reliability quantitative planning of provincial power grid enterprises, the reliability improvement priority coefficients can be used for different provincial power grid enterprises, and reliability planning consistency is improved.
By considering economic factors and power grid development factors, differential reliability management of provincial power grid enterprises on various municipal power grids is achieved. The economic development levels of different grade cities reflect the reliability improvement requirement of the power grid to a certain extent, the development level of the power grid reflects the reliability improvement potential, the efficiency and the economy of reliability planning can be maximized at the provincial level by comprehensively considering the two factors, the transformation requirement of power grid enterprises from high-speed development to high-quality development is met, and the power grid enterprises are also helped to bear the social responsibility of promoting the development of laggard areas.
The fairness of the provincial level reliability planning is improved through the reliability planning budget determined by the reliability planning target. Budget allocation based on a planning target can realize fairness of provincial power grid level planning, improve positivity of power supply reliability management of each city, and meet the requirement of reliability planning budget of each city to the maximum extent.
The reliability planning target and budget provide reference for power supply reliability management evaluation. The provincial power grid can evaluate the reliability management of each city according to the reliability planning target and the actual reliability improvement level of each city, and each city can also formulate a specific reliability planning scheme according with the local reality according to the clear reliability planning target and budget.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the invention can be further improved as follows:
further, the S101 specifically includes:
s1011, calculating a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level through a formula 1;
in the step, a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level is calculated through a formula 1;
SAIDIn＝SAIDIn-1-α(SAIDIn-1-SAIDIn-j) /(j-1) equation 1;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd alpha is a reliability improvement reduction coefficient for the average power failure time of each household of the system in the ith year, and the specific numerical value can be calculated from historical data. If there is a history missing, it may be 0.95. Along with the improvement of the reliability level, the reliability index improvement difficulty is gradually increased, the improvement rate is gradually reduced, and the alpha setting enables the prediction of the reliability planning target to accord with the actual situation of the reliability level management. The value of j is generally the total year of the planning period plus 1.
As shown in fig. 2, further, the S102 specifically includes:
s1021, determining indexes representing power supply reliability requirements and power supply levels of a power grid;
in this step, a target layer and a plan layer are determined; determining a power supply reliability priority coefficient of a target layer through a hierarchical analysis model 20, wherein a scheme layer is the SAIDI (average power failure duration) reduction percentage of each region;
the reliability demand level of the region is represented through the per-capita GDP, the load density and the town chemical rate;
reflecting the current regional power supply level through the power grid construction level and the management level;
the power grid construction level is represented by a line construction level and an equipment allocation level, indexes corresponding to the line construction level comprise the line length of a unit power supply area and the line cabling rate, and indexes corresponding to the equipment allocation level comprise the number of distribution transformers of the unit line length, the number of outgoing line breakers of the unit line length and the number of other switches of the unit line length;
the power grid management level is characterized by outage rate and average outage duration, indexes corresponding to the outage rate comprise pre-scheduled outage times, line fault outage rate, outage and outage rate of a distribution transformer, outage and outage rate of an outgoing line breaker and outage rate of other switches, and indexes corresponding to the average outage duration comprise pre-scheduled average outage duration and average failure and outage duration;
s1022, carrying out normalization processing on the data corresponding to each layer of index;
in the step, the average index of the provincial power grid is taken as a reference value, and the data corresponding to each layer of index is normalized;
and taking the average index of the provincial power grid as a reference value, and carrying out normalization processing on data corresponding to each layer of index. The normalization method is classified into 3 types according to the logical relationship between different indexes and the reliability improvement priority. The normalization methods are shown in equations 7-9, respectively.
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000101
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000102
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000103
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000104
to normalize the result, miFor the original index data of each city, mibAnd k is the number of the grade cities to be planned for the provincial power grid enterprises, wherein the index data is the original index data of the whole province.
The first type of indexes expressed by the formula 7 are average indexes, and the indexes are positively correlated with reliability improvement priority coefficients and comprise the per capita GDP, load density, urbanization rate, line fault outage rate, outage rate of distribution transformer, outage rate of outgoing line breaker, outage rate of other switches, pre-arrangement average power failure duration time and average fault power failure duration time.
The second type of indicator expressed by equation 8 is an average type indicator, and the indicator is negatively related to the reliability improvement priority coefficient, and includes the line length per unit power supply area, the cabling rate of the line, the number of distribution transformers per unit line length, the number of outgoing line breakers per unit line length, and the number of other switches per unit line length.
The third type of index represented by formula 9 is a non-average index, and when normalization processing is performed, the third type of index is an index which is mainly used for pre-arrangement of power failure times and needs to be multiplied by the number of planned grade cities.
And calculating a reliability improvement priority coefficient.
S1023, reliability improvement priority coefficients of all regions are calculated through a formula 2;
in the step, reliability improvement priority coefficients of all regions are calculated through a formula 2;
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000111
in the formula, RiA priority coefficient is improved for the reliability of the ith subordinate city-level power grid; a. theiLayer 2 index for power supply reliability requirements, BjkAnd CjkThe indexes of the layer 3 under the power grid construction level and the power grid management level are respectively; omegaXThe specific value is the weight coefficient corresponding to the index X and can be calculated by a pair-wise comparison matrix.
Element X of the pairwise comparison matrix Xi,jThe determination scheme of (2) is as shown in FIG. 3, and a third level of 4 paired comparison matrices X are sequentially defined from top to bottom according to FIG. 41、X2、X3And X4As shown in equation 10-equation 13.
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000112
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000113
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000114
X1、X2、X3And X4Can pass consistency check, its weight vector W1、W2、W3And W4The calculation results are shown in equations 14 to 17.
W1＝[0.25 0.75]zEquation 14;
W2＝[0.4545 0.4545 0.0909]zequation 15;
W3＝[0.5625 0.1287 0.1287 0.1287 0.0514]zequation 16;
W4＝[0.25 0.75]zequation 17;
the first tier and the second tier assign the same weight to each index.
Further, the S103 specifically includes:
s1031, calculating the SAIDI reduction percentage delta SAIDI in the planning period through formula 3-formula 5i％；
In this step, the percentage of SAIDI reduction Δ SAIDI during the planning period is calculated by formula 3 to formula 5i％；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000121
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000122
ΔSAIDIi％＝CRiEquation 5;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd Δ SAIDIiRespectively obtaining SAIDI before the planning period of the ith subordinate city level power grid and SAIDI reduction values in the planning period; h isiThe number of the equivalent households of the ith subordinate city-level power grid is; c is a reliability assignment constant.
Further, the S104 specifically includes:
s1041, calculating a reliability planning budget of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period;
in the step, the reliability planning budget Budgt of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period is calculated through a formula 6i；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000123
In the formula, BudgtallAnd managing the total budget for the reliability in the provincial power grid planning period.
Due to the fact that the economic development level of the city-level region is different from the power grid development level, when the reliability index planning is carried out, different reliability promotion requirements and promotion potentials of different regions are considered, the reliability targets of all city-level power distribution networks are reasonably distributed, and hierarchical differentiated reliability management and planning of the provincial-level power grid can be achieved.
As shown in fig. 5, a hierarchical reliability management system for a power distribution network includes:
the calculation module 10 is used for determining a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau;
the hierarchical analysis model 20 is used for solving the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a hierarchical analysis method;
the distribution module 30 is connected with the calculation module 10 and the hierarchical analysis model 20, and is used for distributing the reliability improvement targets of the provincial grid layer to the urban power grids according to the reliability improvement priority coefficients;
and the processing module 40 is connected to the distribution module 30, and is configured to calculate a reliability planning budget of each utility-level power grid according to the reliability improvement target distributed to each utility-level power grid.
Further, the calculation module 10 is further configured to:
calculating a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level through a formula 1;
SAIDIn＝SAIDIn-1-α(SAIDIn-1-SAIDIn-j) /(j-1) equation 1;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd alpha is a reliability improvement reduction coefficient for the average power failure time of each household of the system in the ith year, and the specific numerical value can be calculated from historical data.
Further, the hierarchical analysis model 20 is further configured to:
determining a power supply reliability priority coefficient of a target layer through a hierarchical analysis model 20, wherein a scheme layer is SAIDI reduction percentage of each region;
the reliability demand level of the region is represented through the per-capita GDP, the load density and the town chemical rate;
reflecting the current regional power supply level through the power grid construction level and the management level;
the power grid construction level is represented by a line construction level and an equipment allocation level, indexes corresponding to the line construction level comprise the line length of a unit power supply area and the line cabling rate, and indexes corresponding to the equipment allocation level comprise the number of distribution transformers of the unit line length, the number of outgoing line breakers of the unit line length and the number of other switches of the unit line length;
the power grid management level is characterized by outage rate and average outage duration, indexes corresponding to the outage rate comprise pre-scheduled outage times, line fault outage rate, outage and outage rate of a distribution transformer, outage and outage rate of an outgoing line breaker and outage rate of other switches, and indexes corresponding to the average outage duration comprise pre-scheduled average outage duration and average failure and outage duration;
taking the average index of the provincial power grid as a reference value, and carrying out normalization processing on data corresponding to each layer of index;
calculating the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a formula 2;
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000141
in the formula, RiA priority coefficient is improved for the reliability of the ith subordinate city-level power grid; a. theiLayer 2 index for power supply reliability requirements, BjkAnd CjkThe indexes of the layer 3 under the power grid construction level and the power grid management level are respectively; omegaXThe specific value is the weight coefficient corresponding to the index X and can be calculated by a pair-wise comparison matrix.
Further, the allocation module 30 is further configured to:
calculating the SAIDI reduction percentage delta SAIDI in the planning period through formulas 3 to 5i％；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000142
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000143
ΔSAIDIi％＝CRiEquation 5;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd Δ SAIDIiRespectively obtaining SAIDI before the planning period of the ith subordinate city level power grid and SAIDI reduction values in the planning period; h isiThe number of the equivalent households of the ith subordinate city-level power grid is; c is a reliability assignment constant.
Further, the processing module 40 is further configured to:
calculating the reliability planning budget Budgt of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period by a formula 6i；
Figure RE-GDA0003329657880000151
In the formula, BudgtallAnd managing the total budget for the reliability in the provincial power grid planning period.
The use process of the hierarchical reliability management system of the power distribution network is as follows:
when the system is used, a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level is determined according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau; establishing a hierarchical analysis model 20, and solving reliability promotion priority coefficients of each region by using an hierarchical analysis method; distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient; and calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement target distributed to each urban power grid.
It should also be noted that the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
One or more embodiments of the present description may be described in the general context of computer-executable instructions, such as program modules, being executed by a computer. Generally, program modules include routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, etc. that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract data types. One or more embodiments of the specification may also be practiced in distributed computing environments where tasks are performed by remote processing devices that are linked through a communications network. In a distributed computing environment, program modules may be located in both local and remote computer storage media including memory storage devices.
The embodiments in the present specification are described in a progressive manner, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from the other embodiments. In particular, for the system embodiment, since it is substantially similar to the method embodiment, the description is simple, and for the relevant points, reference may be made to the partial description of the method embodiment.
The above description is only an example of this document and is not intended to limit this document. Various modifications and changes may occur to those skilled in the art from this document. Any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. which come within the spirit and principle of the disclosure are intended to be included within the scope of the claims of this document.

Claims (10)

1. A method for managing the hierarchical reliability of a power distribution network is characterized by specifically comprising the following steps:
s101, determining a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau;
s102, establishing a hierarchical analysis model, and solving a reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a hierarchical analysis method;
s103, distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient;
and S104, calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement targets distributed to each urban power grid.
2. The method for hierarchical reliability management of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the S101 specifically includes:
s1011, calculating a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level through a formula 1;
SAIDIn＝SAIDIn-1-α(SAIDIn-1-SAIDIn-j) /(j-1) equation 1;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd alpha is a reliability improvement reduction coefficient for the average power failure time of each household of the system in the ith year, and the specific numerical value can be calculated from historical data.
3. The method for hierarchical reliability management of a power distribution network according to claim 2, wherein the S102 specifically includes:
s1021, determining indexes representing power supply reliability requirements and power supply levels of a power grid;
s1022, taking the average index of the provincial power grid as a reference value, and carrying out normalization processing on data corresponding to each layer of index;
s1023, reliability improvement priority coefficients of all regions are calculated through a formula 2;
Figure FDA0003211339060000021
in the formula, RiA priority coefficient is improved for the reliability of the ith subordinate city-level power grid; a. theiLayer 2 index for power supply reliability requirements, BjkAnd CjkThe indexes of the layer 3 under the power grid construction level and the power grid management level are respectively; omegaXThe specific value is the weight coefficient corresponding to the index X and can be calculated by a pair-wise comparison matrix.
4. The method for hierarchical reliability management of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step S103 specifically includes:
s1031, calculating the SAIDI reduction percentage delta SAIDI in the planning period through formula 3-formula 5i％；
Figure FDA0003211339060000022
Figure FDA0003211339060000023
ΔSAIDIi％＝CRiEquation 5;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd Δ SAIDIiRespectively obtaining SAIDI before the planning period of the ith subordinate city level power grid and SAIDI reduction values in the planning period; h isiThe number of the equivalent households of the ith subordinate city-level power grid is; c is a reliability assignment constant.
5. The method for hierarchical reliability management of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the S104 specifically includes:
s1041, calculating a reliability planning budget Budgt of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period through a formula 6i；
Figure FDA0003211339060000024
In the formula, BudgtallAnd managing the total budget for the reliability in the provincial power grid planning period.
6. A hierarchical reliability management system for a power distribution network, comprising:
the computing module is used for determining a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level according to the historical power supply reliability level and the power supply reliability plan of the energy source bureau;
the hierarchical analysis model is used for solving the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a hierarchical analysis method;
the distribution module is connected with the calculation module and the hierarchical analysis model and used for distributing the reliability improvement target of the provincial network level to each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement priority coefficient;
and the processing module is connected with the distribution module and used for calculating the reliability planning budget of each urban power grid according to the reliability improvement target distributed to each urban power grid.
7. The system for hierarchical reliability management of an electrical distribution network of claim 6, wherein the computing module is further configured to:
calculating a reliability improvement target of the provincial network level through a formula 1;
SAIDIn＝SAIDIn-1-α(SAIDIn-1-SAIDIn-j) /(j-1) equation 1;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd alpha is a reliability improvement reduction coefficient for the average power failure time of each household of the system in the ith year, and the specific numerical value can be calculated from historical data.
8. The system for hierarchical reliability management of an electrical distribution network of claim 7, wherein the hierarchical analysis model is further configured to:
determining indexes representing power supply reliability requirements and power supply levels of a power grid;
taking the average index of the provincial power grid as a reference value, and carrying out normalization processing on data corresponding to each layer of index;
calculating the reliability improvement priority coefficient of each region through a formula 2;
Figure FDA0003211339060000041
in the formula, RiA priority coefficient is improved for the reliability of the ith subordinate city-level power grid; a. theiFor reliability of power supplyRequired layer 2 index, BjkAnd CjkThe indexes of the layer 3 under the power grid construction level and the power grid management level are respectively; omegaXThe specific value is the weight coefficient corresponding to the index X and can be calculated by a pair-wise comparison matrix.
9. The system for hierarchical reliability management of an electrical distribution network of claim 8, wherein the distribution module is further configured to:
calculating the SAIDI reduction percentage delta SAIDI in the planning period through formulas 3 to 5i％；
Figure FDA0003211339060000042
Figure FDA0003211339060000043
ΔSAIDIi％＝CRiEquation 5;
in the formula, SAIDIiAnd Δ SAIDIiRespectively obtaining SAIDI before the planning period of the ith subordinate city level power grid and SAIDI reduction values in the planning period; h isiThe number of the equivalent households of the ith subordinate city-level power grid is; c is a reliability assignment constant.
10. The system for hierarchical reliability management of an electrical distribution network of claim 1, wherein the processing module is further configured to:
calculating the reliability planning budget Budgt of the ith subordinate city-level power grid in a planning period by a formula 6i；
Figure FDA0003211339060000044
In the formula, BudgtallAnd managing the total budget for the reliability in the provincial power grid planning period.
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