CN113610556A - Method, device and terminal for power load prediction - Google Patents
Method, device and terminal for power load prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention is suitable for the technical field of electric power, and provides a method, a device and a terminal for predicting an electric load, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps of dividing electric equipment into a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment; acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance; determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance; determining a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve. The method and the system finish the prediction of the power load curve based on the power utilization characteristics and the starting time of different types of electric appliances, improve the prediction accuracy and further improve the accuracy of power scheduling.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power, and particularly relates to a method, a device and a terminal for predicting an electric load.
Background
At present, a detailed residential power consumption load curve is crucial to local area small-scale distributed power generation and local demand side management, and is based on analysis and research on historical data of a power system, power consumption level is estimated and presumed in advance, and the residential power consumption load curve is a basic work for perfecting power system planning, power utilization and scheduling. Load prediction in residential homes is more challenging than traditional load prediction problems. The load scale of the transformer substation or the node is large and generally stable. The power load of industrial and commercial users is affected by production rules, and can be divided into several typical power utilization modes with strong regularity. However, the residential load of the residents is closely related to the electricity consumption behavior of the users. The traditional load prediction method only utilizes the load data of the household total electric meter, so that the description of the obtained scheduling scheme on the electric load is too rough, and the electric power scheduling is not accurate enough.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the present invention provides a method, an apparatus and a terminal for predicting a power load, which can improve accuracy of predicting the power load to perform power scheduling accurately.
The setting aspect of the embodiment of the invention provides a method for predicting the electric load, which comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps of dividing electric equipment into a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment;
acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
determining a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
A second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for predicting an electrical load, including:
the dividing module is used for dividing the electric equipment into a continuous electric appliance and an intermittent electric appliance according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the electric equipment;
the acquisition module is used for acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
the first determining module is used for determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
a second determination module to determine a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
A third aspect of embodiments of the present invention provides a terminal, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor implements the steps of the method for power load prediction according to any one of the above when executing the computer program.
A fourth aspect of embodiments of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for electrical load prediction according to any one of the preceding claims.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method comprises the steps of dividing the electric equipment into continuous electric appliances and intermittent electric appliances according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the electric equipment, obtaining a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliances, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliances and the starting time periods of the intermittent electric appliances, carrying out cluster analysis based on the electricity utilization characteristics, determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliances based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time periods of the intermittent electric appliances, determining a target electricity utilization load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve, and carrying out analysis based on the probability distribution and the starting time periods on the basis of the cluster analysis. The method and the device finish the prediction of the power load curve based on the power utilization characteristics and the starting time of different types of electric appliances, improve the prediction accuracy and further improve the accuracy of power scheduling.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an implementation of a method for power load prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating an implementation of a method for power load prediction according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for electrical load prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of a terminal according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the following description, for purposes of explanation and not limitation, specific details are set forth, such as particular system structures, techniques, etc. in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the invention. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art that the present invention may be practiced in other embodiments that depart from these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted so as not to obscure the description of the present invention with unnecessary detail.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the following description is made by way of specific embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The load curve contains three pieces of information, which are: the time when the equipment starts to consume energy, the power demand when the equipment operates and the time when the equipment stops, and the load curves in average sense completely fuse the information of different residences, the load curves contain very limited electricity utilization information, specific electricity utilization behaviors in each residence and electricity consumption characteristics of different equipment cannot be revealed, so that the load curves in more detail in minutes need to be generated through load modeling based on hours in average sense.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an implementation of a method for predicting an electrical load according to an embodiment of the present invention, including the following steps:
and S101, dividing the electric equipment into a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the electric equipment.
Optionally, the household appliances are divided into two types: type 1 is a household appliance that needs to be operated once for a period of time to stop, i.e., a continuous type appliance, such as: electric water heaters, dryers, and the like. Type 2 is a household appliance that can be started at any time of the day, i.e. an intermittent type appliance, such as: lighting devices, and the like. Both of these devices consume a large portion of the electrical energy in a residence.
S102, acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance.
The average power consumption of each device contains information on the probability of when the user is using the device. This information includes not only the proportion of devices being used, but also the probability of starting a device at any time of day. When determining the constant power and time requirements, the average load curves of the different devices can be considered to be related only to the moment of start-up. For continuous electric appliances such as electric water heaters and dryers, the constant power consumption time represents an average usage time. For intermittent electrical appliances such as lighting equipment, whether a user turns on the equipment at the moment has no influence on the next moment, and therefore, each moment can be regarded as the starting moment of the lighting equipment.
In view of the above, device behavior can be described as two types as follows: the load curves of the electric water heater and the dryer included in type 1 are created based on their starting times, which determine different load curves, and the starting time can be generated from its probability distribution, which is obtained based on the equipment-level load curve and the equipment use characteristics in the average sense. The load curve of the lighting devices included in type 2 can be obtained by calculating the base load curve of a single household.
Optionally, the first average energy consumption curve is obtained by averagely calculating rated power of the continuous type electric appliances of different types, or is obtained by averagely calculating the energy consumption of a plurality of residential houses acquired within a first set time period (for example, within a time period that the residential houses are away from home). Optionally, the second average energy consumption curve is obtained by average calculation based on rated powers of different types of intermittent electric appliances, or is obtained by calculation based on the power consumption of the plurality of residences acquired within the second set time period and the power consumption of the plurality of residences acquired within the first set time period (for example, within a time period when the residents are away from home).
S103, determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance.
And S104, determining a target electric load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
In this embodiment, the electric equipment is divided into a continuous electric appliance and an intermittent electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment, a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance are obtained, cluster analysis is performed based on the electric characteristics, probability distribution of starting time of the continuous electric appliance is determined based on the first average energy consumption curve, a first load curve is determined based on the probability distribution, a second load curve is determined based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance, a target electric load curve is determined based on the first load curve and the second load curve, and analysis is performed based on the probability distribution and the starting time period based on the cluster analysis. According to the method and the device, the power load curve prediction is completed based on the power utilization characteristics and the starting time of different types of electrical appliances, the prediction accuracy is improved, and the accuracy of power scheduling is improved.
In some embodiments, the determining the target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve in step S104 includes:
determining a device-level power utilization load curve based on the power utilization device type, the first load curve, and the second load curve; and/or the presence of a gas in the gas,
a home-level electricity load curve is determined based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
And adding the second load curves of the lighting equipment or all the intermittent electrical appliances to obtain the equipment-level load curve. The load curves of the houses formed by different devices can be added to obtain the total load curve of a plurality of houses, namely a certain area.
In some embodiments, the determining, in step S103, a probability distribution of the starting time of the sustained appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve includes:
analyzing the first average energy consumption curve to determine the average power of the constant electric energy utilization rate and the average running time of the equipment;
the probability distribution is determined based on the constant power usage average power and the average runtime of the device.
The continuous electric appliance is started once and is required to run for a period of time to stop, and probability distribution is determined according to the average power of the constant electric energy utilization rate and the average running time of the equipment, so that the probability distribution can be used for explaining the running process of the electric water heater and the dryer.
In some embodiments, the relationship between the constant power usage average power, the average runtime of the device, and the probability distribution is as follows:
wherein p isdIs the daily use probability of the continuous electric appliance; paRepresenting a constant power usage average power; t isaIs the average run time of the continuous appliance; n is the total number of residences; TS denotes the total time period; t is a time index; p (t) is the average power consumption of the sustained electric appliance at time t.
Wherein the average running time of the continuous electric appliance is obtained based on a thermodynamic model of the equivalent thermal parameters.
The determination process of the average running time of the electric water heater is described by taking the electric water heater as an example:
a thermodynamic model based on equivalent thermal parameters can be used for representing the process of power consumption of the electric water heater, the physical model reflects the energy exchange between injected cold water and the environment, and the rising and falling of the water temperature are respectively caused by input electric energy and energy loss.
The calculation formula of the water temperature inside the water heater is as follows:
wherein, t0Is the initial time; t isamAnd TinIs the temperature of the external environment and the cold water injected into the water inlet; t (t) is the water temperature inside the water heater at the moment t; q is the rated power P of the water heaterRProportional input power efficiency; cwIs the specific heat capacity of water in the water tank; lambda [ alpha ]1And λ2Respectively representing the heat exchange factors of the environment and the cold water influencing the temperature of the water in the water tank.
When no cold water is filled into the water tank, namely no hot water is consumed, and the water heater only causes the water heater to work circularly due to heat loss, lambda in the above formula2When the temperature is 0, the calculation formula of the water temperature in the water heater is as follows:
wherein, t0Is the initial time; t isamAnd TinIs the temperature of the external environment and the cold water injected into the water inlet; t (t) is the water temperature inside the water heater at the moment t; q is the rated power P of the water heaterRProportional input power efficiency; cwIs the specific heat capacity of water in the water tank; lambda [ alpha ]1And λ2Respectively representing the heat exchange factors of the environment and the cold water influencing the temperature of the water in the water tank.
The electric water heater mainly provides hot water for residents in three aspects, including showers, hot water for kitchens and wash stands, and the hot water required by showers is far more than that required by other two aspects, which means that the shower action of the residents causes the most electricity consumption of the residential water heater. When the water heater is started, the electric quantity is consumed at a constant rate, so that the required electric quantity is a constant value considering that the water quantity required by one shower is constant and the water flow speed is constant. When water is used, the electric water heater does not need to consume electric energy before the water temperature is reduced to the lower limit value, and then the water heater starts to use the electric energy for heating. The time required for using the electric power is the time from the start of heating until the heating reaches the upper limit value.
For the dryer and the lighting, the user starts consuming power while activating the device, but there is still a difference between their behaviors. The dryer is used at a constant power for a period of time set by a resident while the dryer is turned on. The resident cannot use the dryer again until a task is completed. In this regard, the use of the dryer has certain similarities to the mode of operation of an electric water heater, both of which have a length of run time, and the next use is required after the end of the last use. As for the lighting apparatus, whether or not the resident turns on the lighting apparatus at this time does not affect the use of the apparatus at the next time, so the resident can decide on and off of the lighting apparatus at any time. The starting time is defined as the time when the equipment starts to consume electric energy, the electric energy consumption is started when the drying machine and the lighting are both started, and the electric water heater can start the electric energy consumption only when the equipment is used by residents.
In some embodiments, in step S103, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution includes:
determining the number of electric equipment consuming electric energy at the first set moment and the number of electric equipment consuming electric energy from the second set moment based on the probability distribution;
the first load curve is determined based on the number of consumers consuming power at the first set time and the number of consumers consuming power from the second set time.
In some embodiments, the relationship between the number of consumers consuming power at the first set time, the number of consumers consuming power from the second set time, and the first load curve is as follows:
wherein p iss(t) is the probability of starting the equipment at time t; k is a radical ofu(t) represents the number of devices in use at the time t, namely the number of electric devices consuming electric energy at the first set time;
ku (t-1) is in use at time t-1The number of devices in (1); k is a radical ofs(t-Ta) Is T-TaThe number of devices which are started at the moment, namely the number of the electric devices which consume the electric energy from the second set moment; n is the total number of residences.
In the embodiment of the invention, TaSome devices automatically shut down after a period of operation, which is the average operating time of the device. When the number of the devices which are started at the moment t is calculated in the calculation process, the number k of the devices which are used at the moment t is not only calculatedu(t) minus the number of devices Ku (t-1) in use at time t-1, also taking into account the number k of device shutdowns at the time t is reacheds(t-Ta) I.e. from time T onwards by distance T from time TaThe number of devices turned on at the moment of the duration.
The description is given with reference to specific embodiments. If at T-TaAt the moment, a device is started and passes through TaAnd when the time t is reached after the time length, the equipment is closed. Then in the case of 4 devices operating at time T and 2 devices operating at time T-1, the devices turned on at time T are not derived from 4-2, i.e. the number of devices turned on at time T is not 2, but rather it should be taken into account that T is continuously operatedaThe duration is long, the equipment which is closed at the time t is operated at the time t-1, and the number of the equipment which is opened at the time t is as follows: 4-2+1 equals 3, i.e. 3 devices are turned on at time t.
The above formula is used to determine the probability of the start of the appliance at each moment, and the results obtained from the above formula can be used to generate an infinite number of starting moments of the electric water heater and the dryer, and then an infinite number of load curves for different appliances or different houses can be constructed.
In some embodiments, determining the second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the start-up period of the intermittent appliance comprises:
analyzing the second average energy consumption curve to determine the average power of the electric energy utilization rate of the intermittent electric appliance;
and determining a second load curve according to the average power of the electric energy utilization rate of the intermittent electric appliance and the starting time period.
Intermittent appliances such as lighting fixtures may be activated at any time of day, and such fixtures may derive a base load curve for an individual dwelling from the average energy consumption curve. Assuming that the lighting requirements of each home are determined by the base lighting and the resident coming home at any time, the lighting load curve is derived from the following formula:
where P (t) is the lighting demand at time t for each dwelling; NPl(t) refers to lighting needs of N households; k is a radical ofu(t)Pl(t) represents the power consumption of the lighting device turned on at time t.
With the base load curve, the load curve for any home can be constructed by a start-up period, where the start-up period is determined based on the time of home and away.
In the present embodiment, Pl(t) is an index in the average sense, and P is consumed when the residents return home and consider that the residents have lighting requirementslElectric quantity of (t), ku(t) here denotes the number of lighting devices used at time t, ku(t)PlAnd (t) represents the power consumption of the lighting equipment which is turned on at the moment t, namely, the family comes back at the moment t, and a new lighting demand is generated. NPl(t) refers to the lighting needs of N households, which may be considered as the power consumption of the lighting devices that have been turned on by people at home before time t. Then NPl(t)+ku(t)PlAnd (t) represents the total power consumption of all the people at home in N households at t time, and the power consumption P (t) of each household at t time is obtained by dividing the total power consumption by N.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of an implementation of a method for predicting a power consumption load according to another embodiment of the present invention, including the following steps:
s201, a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance are divided.
The electric equipment is divided into a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment.
Optionally, the household appliances are divided into two types: type 1 is a household appliance that needs to be operated once for a period of time to stop, i.e., a continuous type appliance, such as: electric water heaters, dryers, and the like. Type 2 is a household appliance that can be started at any time of the day, i.e. an intermittent type appliance, such as: lighting devices, and the like. Both of these devices consume a large portion of the electrical energy in a residence. The continuous type appliance and the intermittent type appliance are divided at step S201, and steps S202 and S207 are performed.
S202, acquiring an average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, namely acquiring a first average energy consumption curve.
And S203, calculating by using the formula (1), and determining the daily use probability of the continuous electric appliance.
And S204, acquiring the probability distribution of the starting time.
And S205, determining the starting time. The starting time is the time when the continuous electric appliance consumes electric energy every day.
And S206, determining the load curve of the continuous type electric appliance, namely determining a first load curve. Wherein the load curve of the sustained type electric appliance is determined based on the above equation (5).
And S207, acquiring an average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance, namely acquiring a second average energy consumption curve.
And S208, acquiring the time from home to home, namely determining the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance.
S209, calculation using equation (6).
And S210, determining a load curve of the intermittent type electric appliance, namely determining a second load curve. Wherein the load curve of the intermittent type electric appliance is directly determined based on the above formula (6).
And S211, calculating a device-level load curve or a residence-level electricity load curve.
In this embodiment, the electric equipment is divided into a continuous electric appliance and an intermittent electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment, a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance are obtained, cluster analysis is performed based on the electric characteristics, probability distribution of starting time of the continuous electric appliance is determined based on the first average energy consumption curve, a first load curve is determined based on the probability distribution, a second load curve is determined based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance, a target electric load curve is determined based on the first load curve and the second load curve, and analysis is performed based on the probability distribution and the starting time period based on the cluster analysis. According to the method and the device, the power load curve prediction is completed based on the power utilization characteristics and the starting time of different types of electrical appliances, the prediction accuracy is improved, and the accuracy of power scheduling is improved.
It should be understood that, the sequence numbers of the steps in the foregoing embodiments do not imply an execution sequence, and the execution sequence of each process should be determined by its function and inherent logic, and should not constitute any limitation to the implementation process of the embodiments of the present invention.
The following are embodiments of the apparatus of the invention, reference being made to the corresponding method embodiments described above for details which are not described in detail therein.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for electrical load prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention, and for convenience of description, only the parts related to the embodiment of the present invention are shown, and the details are as follows:
as shown in fig. 3, the apparatus for electric load prediction includes: a dividing module 301, an obtaining module 302, a first determining module 303 and a second determining module 304.
The dividing module 301 is configured to divide the electric devices into a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric devices.
The obtaining module 302 is configured to obtain a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electrical appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electrical appliance, and a starting time period of the intermittent electrical appliance.
The first determining module 303 is configured to determine probability distribution of a start time of the continuous electrical appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determine a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determine a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and a start time period of the intermittent electrical appliance.
A second determination module 304 to determine a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
In this embodiment, the electric equipment is divided into a continuous electric appliance and an intermittent electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment, a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance are obtained, cluster analysis is performed based on the electric characteristics, probability distribution of starting time of the continuous electric appliance is determined based on the first average energy consumption curve, a first load curve is determined based on the probability distribution, a second load curve is determined based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance, a target electric load curve is determined based on the first load curve and the second load curve, and analysis is performed based on the probability distribution and the starting time period based on the cluster analysis. According to the method and the device, the power load curve prediction is completed based on the power utilization characteristics and the starting time of different types of electrical appliances, the prediction accuracy is improved, and the accuracy of power scheduling is improved.
Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of a terminal according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 4, the terminal 4 of this embodiment includes: a processor 40, a memory 41 and a computer program 42 stored in said memory 41 and executable on said processor 40. The processor 40 executes the computer program 42 to implement the steps in the above-described embodiments of the method for predicting electrical load, such as the steps S101 to S104 shown in fig. 1. Alternatively, the processor 40, when executing the computer program 42, implements the functions of each module/unit in the above-mentioned device embodiments, such as the functions of the modules 301 to 304 shown in fig. 3.
Illustratively, the computer program 42 may be partitioned into one or more modules/units that are stored in the memory 41 and executed by the processor 40 to implement the present invention. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, which are used to describe the execution of the computer program 42 in the terminal 4. For example, the computer program 42 may be divided into a dividing module, an obtaining module, a first determining module and a second determining module, and each module has the following specific functions:
the dividing module is used for dividing the electric equipment into a continuous electric appliance and an intermittent electric appliance according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the electric equipment;
the acquisition module is used for acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
the first determining module is used for determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
and the second determining module is used for determining a target electric load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
The terminal 4 may be a desktop computer, a notebook, a palm computer, a cloud server, or other computing devices. The terminal may include, but is not limited to, a processor 40, a memory 41. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that fig. 4 is only an example of a terminal 4 and does not constitute a limitation of terminal 4 and may include more or less components than those shown, or some components in combination, or different components, for example, the terminal may also include input output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.
The Processor 40 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory 41 may be an internal storage unit of the terminal 4, such as a hard disk or a memory of the terminal 4. The memory 41 may also be an external storage device of the terminal 4, such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card) and the like provided on the terminal 4. Further, the memory 41 may also include both an internal storage unit and an external storage device of the terminal 4. The memory 41 is used for storing the computer program and other programs and data required by the terminal. The memory 41 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, only the above-mentioned division of the functional units and modules is illustrated, and in practical applications, the above-mentioned function distribution may be performed by different functional units and modules according to needs, that is, the internal structure of the apparatus is divided into different functional units or modules to perform all or part of the above-mentioned functions. Each functional unit and module in the embodiments may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated in one unit, and the integrated unit may be implemented in a form of hardware, or in a form of software functional unit. In addition, specific names of the functional units and modules are only for convenience of distinguishing from each other, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the present application. The specific working processes of the units and modules in the system may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.
In the above embodiments, the descriptions of the respective embodiments have respective emphasis, and reference may be made to the related descriptions of other embodiments for parts that are not described or illustrated in a certain embodiment.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
In the embodiments provided in the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus/terminal and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described apparatus/terminal embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the modules or units is only one logical division, and there may be other divisions when actually implemented, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or may be integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, and can also be realized in a form of a software functional unit.
The integrated modules/units, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as separate products, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, all or part of the flow of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention may also be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method embodiments may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, Read-Only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, and the like. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain other components which may be suitably increased or decreased as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media which may not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals in accordance with legislation and patent practice.
The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not substantially depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present invention, and are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for power load prediction, comprising:
the method comprises the following steps of dividing electric equipment into a continuous type electric appliance and an intermittent type electric appliance according to the electric characteristics of the electric equipment;
acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
determining a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve comprises:
determining a device-level power load curve based on a power consumer type, the first load curve, and the second load curve; and/or the presence of a gas in the gas,
determining a house-level electricity load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining a probability distribution of a moment of activation of the sustained appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve comprises:
analyzing the first average energy consumption curve to determine the average power of the constant electric energy utilization rate and the average running time of the equipment;
and determining the probability distribution according to the average power of the constant electric energy utilization rate and the average running time of the equipment.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the relationship between the constant power usage average power, the average runtime of the device, and the probability distribution is as follows:
wherein p isdIs the probability of use of the continuous appliance per day; paRepresenting a constant power usage average power; t isaIs the average run time of the continuous appliance; n is the total number of residences; TS denotes the total time period; p (t) is the average power consumption of the continuous electric appliance at time t.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution comprises:
determining the number of electric equipment consuming electric energy at a first set moment and the number of electric equipment consuming electric energy from a second set moment based on the probability distribution;
and determining a first load curve based on the number of the electric devices consuming the electric energy at the first set moment and the number of the electric devices consuming the electric energy from the second set moment.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the relationship between the number of consumers consuming power at the first set time, the number of consumers consuming power from the second set time, and the first load curve is as follows:
wherein p iss(t) is the probability of starting the equipment at time t; k is a radical ofu(t) represents the number of electric devices consuming electric energy at time t;
ku (t-1) is the number of devices in use at time t-1; k is a radical ofs(t-Ta) Is from T-TaThe number of devices that are turned on at any moment; n is the total number of residences.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and a start-up period of the intermittent appliance comprises:
analyzing the second average energy consumption curve to determine the average power of the electric energy utilization rate of the intermittent electric appliance;
and determining the second load curve according to the average power of the electric energy utilization rate of the intermittent electric appliance and the starting time period.
8. An apparatus for electrical load prediction, comprising:
the dividing module is used for dividing the electric equipment into a continuous electric appliance and an intermittent electric appliance according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the electric equipment;
the acquisition module is used for acquiring a first average energy consumption curve of the continuous electric appliance, a second average energy consumption curve of the intermittent electric appliance and a starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
the first determining module is used for determining probability distribution of the starting time of the continuous electric appliance based on the first average energy consumption curve, determining a first load curve based on the probability distribution, and determining a second load curve based on the second average energy consumption curve and the starting time period of the intermittent electric appliance;
a second determination module to determine a target electrical load curve based on the first load curve and the second load curve.
9. A terminal comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor implements the steps of the method for power load prediction according to any of the preceding claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for electrical load prediction according to any one of claims 1 to 7 above.
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