CN113222349A - Evaluation method for tropical cyclone influence degree of coral reef area - Google Patents

Evaluation method for tropical cyclone influence degree of coral reef area Download PDF

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CN113222349A
CN113222349A CN202110416005.2A CN202110416005A CN113222349A CN 113222349 A CN113222349 A CN 113222349A CN 202110416005 A CN202110416005 A CN 202110416005A CN 113222349 A CN113222349 A CN 113222349A
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陈正华
何鑫
陆永强
张威
朱博
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Abstract

The invention discloses an evaluation method of the influence degree of tropical cyclone on coral reef areas, which comprises the following steps: (1) collecting certain tropical cyclone path data; (2) calculating the radii of the wind rings with different wind speeds; (3) obtaining the wind speed value of the coral reef area with a different distance from the center of the tropical cyclone by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method; (4) considering the tropical cyclone frequency, the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time, and calculating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone; (5) and calculating the influence degrees of the coral reef area on the tropical cyclones in the current year respectively, thereby evaluating the influence degree of the coral reef area on the tropical cyclones in the current year. The invention provides a method for evaluating the influence degree of hot zone cyclone in a south-sea coral reef area, which can be operated by software, takes the hot zone cyclone frequency, the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time into consideration, divides the final result into 5 grades, and provides reference for solving the typhoon influence condition of the coral reef.

Description

Evaluation method for tropical cyclone influence degree of coral reef area
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of risk evaluation of coral reefs, and particularly relates to an evaluation method of tropical cyclone influence degree of a coral reef area.
Background
The tropical cyclone mostly occurs in tropical sea, is a warm-heart strong cyclonic vortex, and is accompanied by huge storm and water vapor in the process of marine travel, so that the tropical cyclone often causes secondary disasters such as storm, billow, storm and the like when landing. The south sea is one of the most frequent sea areas for tropical cyclonic activities. Meanwhile, the water quality of the sea area of the south China sea is good, so that a proper habitat is provided for the growth and development of the coral, and the coral reef protection area is also one of ten coral reef protection areas in the world. The main coral reef areas in south China sea are: east sand archipelago, west sand archipelago, middle sand archipelago and south sand archipelago. The coral reef ecosystem has high biodiversity and ecological service functions, and provides a habitat for about 30% of marine organisms all over the world. However, tropical cyclones occurring in south China sea are one of the important factors affecting coral reef structure and function. Severe tropical cyclones can cause physical direct damage to coral reef communities or cause indirect damage by influencing water turbidity, disease outbreak, predator behaviors or fresh water inflow and the like, and further can cause deep influence on the number, coverage and coral abundance of coral reefs.
There are research results that indicate that the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones may increase in the next 100 years. With global climate change, in the Artificial Climate Change Index (ACCI), the proportion of super typhoons will rise at a rate of about 40% increase per degree celsius. Numerical simulations of global variation effects can predict the intensity, distribution and frequency of occurrence of tropical storms. These simulations indicate that the average intensity of tropical storms will increase significantly in the near future. The research on the influence of the tropical cyclone on the coral reef area is very important, and the establishment of a method for evaluating the influence degree of the coral reef area on the tropical cyclone is urgent.
Most of past researches focus on evaluating the influence of tropical cyclone disasters logged in China, and different weight factors are selected to establish an influence evaluation mode by using an objective analysis method, an analytic hierarchy process, an expert scoring method and the like. The influencing factors mainly include: maximum rainfall during the process, maximum wind speed during login, duration after login, influence range, vulnerability of influence area, geological disaster risk, disaster prevention capability index, tropical cyclone frequency, population density, per capita GDP and the like. The south sea coral reef area is far away from the land, is less influenced by human activities, and has almost no population and buildings, so that the influence evaluation index of the tropical cyclone on the coral reef area is different from the influence evaluation index of the tropical cyclone logged in China, and only three indexes of the tropical cyclone frequency, the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time are considered.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides an evaluation method for the influence degree of tropical cyclone on a coral reef area.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the invention provides an evaluation method of the influence degree of tropical cyclone on a coral reef area, which comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting data of a tropical cyclone path, wherein the data comprises the number, name, time, center longitude of the tropical cyclone, center latitude L of the tropical cyclone, and near-center maximum wind speed VmaxMaximum wind speed radius RMW;
(2) processing the tropical cyclone data, and calculating the radius r of the wind ring at different wind speeds;
(3) obtaining the wind speed value of the coral reef area with a different distance from the center of the tropical cyclone by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method;
(4) comprehensively judging the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time of the tropical cyclone, and calculating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone;
(5) collecting tropical cyclone path data of a certain year, obtaining the influence degree of the coral reef area by a plurality of tropical cyclones in the same year according to the steps (1) to (4), and taking the tropical cyclone frequency of the same year into consideration, thereby comprehensively evaluating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclones in the same year.
Preferably, in the step (2), the method for calculating the radius r of the wind ring is as follows:
Figure BDA0003025889140000021
in the formula, VrIs the wind speed at r from the center of the tropical cyclone, m/s;
Vmaxthe maximum near-center wind speed is m/s;
r is the distance from the center of the tropical cyclone, i.e. VrCorresponding windcircle radius, km;
RMW is the maximum wind speed radius, km;
and B is a shape factor.
Preferably, the fitting calculation formula of the shape coefficient B is as follows:
B=1.0036+0.0173Vmax-0.0312InRMW+0.0087L
wherein L is the tropical cyclone central latitude.
Preferably, the method for calculating the wind speed value of the coral reef area at a different distance from the center of the tropical cyclone in the step (3) is as follows:
interpolating and encrypting the route data of the tropical cyclone into data which is once per hour to obtain corresponding longitude and latitude, central wind speed of the tropical cyclone and maximum wind speed radius RMW of the tropical cyclone, and calculating the wind circle radius r of different wind speeds according to the interpolated tropical cyclone data; then, obtaining the wind speed in the coral reef area which is different from the tropical cyclone center by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method; and performing interpolation by using the obtained data to obtain the wind speed value V of the coral reef area once per hour.
Preferably, in the step (4), the method for calculating the degree of the coral reef area affected by the tropical cyclone i is as follows:
(4-1) processing the wind speed value V once per hour in the coral reef area, removing the data of which the wind speed value V is less than 24.5m/s, and dividing the wind speed value V into 3 grades: level 1: v is more than or equal to 24.5 and is less than 32.7 m/s; and 2, stage: v is more than or equal to 32.7 and is less than 41.5 m/s; and 3, level: v is more than or equal to 41.5 and is less than 51.0 m/s;
(4-2) setting the tropical cyclone i to influence the coral reef area within x hours of the total time influencing the coral reef area, wherein the wind speed value of the tropical cyclone i influencing the coral reef area within a certain hour is Vx
If the wind speed value V in the time is in the level 1, the following steps are performed:
Vx=V/(1+2+3)
if the wind speed value V in the time is in the level 2, the following steps are performed:
Vx=2V/(1+2+3)
if the wind speed value V in the time is in 3 grades, the following steps are performed:
Vx=3V/(1+2+3)
the influence degree V of the tropical cyclone i on the coral reef areaiComprises the following steps:
Vi=V1+V2+···+Vx
preferably, in the step (5), the method for evaluating the annual influence of thermal zone cyclone on the coral reef area is as follows:
according to ViThe calculation method of the method obtains the influence degree V of the total n tropical cyclones on the coral reef area in the current yeari1、Vi2、Vi3···VinThe influence degree V of tropical cyclone on coral reef area in the yeartComprises the following steps:
Vt=Vi1、Vi2、Vi3+···+Vin
preferably, the influence degree V of tropical cyclone of a certain year on coral reef areatThe classification is 5 grades:
stage I: v is more than or equal to 0t<100, the influence of the coral reef area with the thermal zone cyclone is extremely low;
II stage: v is more than or equal to 100t<200, the coral reef area is less affected by tropical cyclone;
grade III: v is more than or equal to 200t<300, the coral reef area is affected by thermal cyclone and the like;
stage IV: v is more than or equal to 300t<400, the coral reef area is highly influenced by thermal zone cyclone;
and V stage: vtNot less than 400, the coral reef area is extremely highly influenced by thermal zone cyclone.
Due to the adoption of the technical scheme, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the method, the wind speed of the coral reef area at different distances from the center of the tropical cyclone is calculated by using the data of the optimal path of the tropical cyclone, which is published by a website, according to the time, the longitude of the center of the tropical cyclone, the central latitude of the tropical cyclone, the maximum wind speed near the center and the maximum wind speed radius, and the influence of the tropical cyclone frequency, the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time on the coral reef area is comprehensively considered, so that the influence degree of the tropical cyclone on the coral reef area every year is obtained. The experimental operation method is simple and easy to implement, only needs software to operate, does not need to lose material resources and financial resources, and has important significance for evaluating the ecological health condition of the coral reef area and making a future resource development strategy.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of the present technology;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a south sea area of study;
FIG. 3 is a graph of the influence of tropical cyclone on coral reef area in 2012.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to preferred embodiments. It should be noted, however, that the numerous details set forth in the description are merely for the purpose of providing the reader with a thorough understanding of one or more aspects of the present invention, which may be practiced without these specific details.
Example 1
As shown in the figure, taking south sea coral reef area (east sand island, west sand island, middle sand island, south sand island) as an example, the present example provides a method for evaluating the influence of 2012 tropical cyclone on south sea coral reef area, which comprises the following steps:
(1) and downloading the optimal path data set published by United states Joint typhoon early warning center (JTWC) from the website, and selecting the data of 2012.
(2) Using known data, based on one of the center longitude of the tropical cyclone, the center latitude L of the tropical cyclone, and the near-center maximum wind speed VmaxMaximum wind speed radius RMW, the windband radii for wind speeds of 25.7m/s, 32.7m/s and 41.4m/s were calculated using the following equations:
B=1.0036+0.0173Vmax-0.0312InRMW+0.0087L
Figure BDA0003025889140000051
in the formula, VrIs the wind speed at r from the center of the tropical cyclone, m/s;
Vmaxthe maximum near-center wind speed is m/s;
r is the distance from the center of the tropical cyclone, i.e. VrCorresponding windcircle radius, km;
RMW is the maximum wind speed radius, km;
b is a shape coefficient;
l is the tropical cyclone central latitude.
(3) Obtaining the wind speed value of the coral reef area with a different distance from the center of the tropical cyclone by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method, and specifically comprising the following steps:
interpolating and encrypting the route data of the tropical cyclone into data which is once per hour to obtain corresponding longitude and latitude, central wind speed of the tropical cyclone and maximum wind speed radius RMW of the tropical cyclone, and calculating the wind circle radius r of different wind speeds according to the interpolated tropical cyclone data; then, obtaining the wind speed in the coral reef area which is different from the tropical cyclone center by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method; and performing interpolation by using the obtained data to obtain the wind speed value V of the coral reef area once per hour.
(4) Comprehensively judging the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time of the tropical cyclone, and calculating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone, wherein the specific steps are as follows:
(4-1) processing the wind speed value V once per hour in the coral reef area, removing the data of which the wind speed value V is less than 24.5m/s, and dividing the wind speed value V into 3 grades: level 1: v is more than or equal to 24.5 and is less than 32.7 m/s; and 2, stage: v is more than or equal to 32.7 and is less than 41.5 m/s; and 3, level: v is more than or equal to 41.5 and is less than 51.0 m/s;
(4-2) setting the tropical cyclone i to influence the coral reef area within x hours of the total time influencing the coral reef area, wherein the wind speed value of the tropical cyclone i influencing the coral reef area within a certain hour is Vx
If the wind speed value V in the time is in the level 1, the following steps are performed:
Vx=V/(1+2+3)
if the wind speed value V in the time is in the level 2, the following steps are performed:
Vx=2V/(1+2+3)
if the wind speed value V in the time is in 3 grades, the following steps are performed:
Vx=3V/(1+2+3)
the influence degree V of the tropical cyclone i on the coral reef areaiComprises the following steps:
Vi=V1+V2+···+Vx
(5) according to the tropical cyclone data in 2012, the influence degree V of n tropical cyclones of the coral reef area in the current year on the coral reef area is obtained through the steps (1) to (4)i1、Vi2、Vi3···VinThe influence degree V of tropical cyclone on coral reef area in the yeartComprises the following steps:
Vt=Vi1、Vi2、Vi3+···+Vin
final result V of east sand archipelagotBetween 368.553-471.279; v of west sand archipelagotBetween 8.388-53.216; middle sand archipelago VtBetween 0 and 47.015; nansha archipelago VtBetween 0 and 65.214.
(6) Will influence the degree VtThe classification is 5 grades:
stage I: v is more than or equal to 0t<100, the influence of the coral reef area with the thermal zone cyclone is extremely low;
II stage: v is more than or equal to 100t<200, the coral reef area is less affected by tropical cyclone;
grade III: v is more than or equal to 200t<300, the coral reef area is affected by thermal cyclone and the like;
stage IV: v is more than or equal to 300t<400, the coral reef area is highly influenced by thermal zone cyclone;
and V stage: vtNot less than 400, the coral reef area is extremely highly influenced by thermal zone cyclone.
It can be seen that, 2012, the east sand islands are highly influenced by tropical cyclones and are above the IV level; west sand Islands, Zhongsha Islands and Nansha Islands are extremely low in influence of tropical cyclones and are in the I level.
The typhoon condition in this year is mentioned in "Chinese climate overview in 2012", as follows: in 2012, there are 25 tropical cyclones in the northwest pacific and the south sea, 7 of them land in china, and of the 7 tropical cyclones, there are 3 of typhoon and strong typhoon grades, respectively, and the landing intensity is generally strong. The landing time is concentrated, from 24 days in 7 months to 24 days in 8 months, 6 typhoons land in China successively in one month, which is rare in 1949, wherein 2-8 days in 8 months, "David", "Sura" and "sea anemone" land continuously in one week, the frequency is the first time in nearly 17 years, and 15 provinces (regions and cities) are affected. The tropical cyclone causes 74 deaths all year round, 22 people lose track, and the direct economic loss is 1048.2 billion yuan, which is obviously less than the average value in 1990-2011, but the direct economic loss is the most in 1990. Overall, 2012 the tropical cyclone disaster was biased. In 2012, 5 typhoons, including kannu, davit, steelyard, bravay and sanba, have significant influence on northeast of China, and the typhoons in the northeast and the northeast affected areas have the highest history.
From the article, the general disaster of the tropical cyclone in 2012 is serious, the south sand is influenced by 'Paka' in the tropical cyclone in 2012, and the south sand is not greatly influenced because the grade of the tropical cyclone in 'Paka' is not high and the wind speed passing through the south sand is low; the mountain spirit is strong typhoon which affects the medium sand and the west sand, but the wind speed of the mountain spirit is not high when the mountain spirit passes through the medium sand and the west sand, so that the two islands are not greatly affected by the typhoon; "Tianbalance" is a strong typhoon, which affects the east sand, and the wind speed is high and is very close to the east sand during the running process of the typhoon, so the east sand is seriously affected.
Therefore, the result obtained by the evaluation method is consistent with the actual situation, the method only needs to be operated by software without wasting material and financial resources, and the method has important significance for evaluating the ecological health condition of the coral reef area and making a future resource development strategy.

Claims (7)

1. A method for evaluating the influence degree of tropical cyclone on a coral reef area is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) collecting a certain number of tropical cyclonic pathsAccording to the data, the number, name, time, center longitude of tropical cyclone, center latitude L of tropical cyclone, and near-center maximum wind speed V of the tropical cyclone are includedmaxMaximum wind speed radius RMW;
(2) processing the tropical cyclone data, and calculating the radius r of the wind ring at different wind speeds;
(3) obtaining the wind speed value of the coral reef area with a different distance from the center of the tropical cyclone by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method;
(4) comprehensively judging the maximum wind speed and the accumulated influence time of the tropical cyclone, and calculating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone;
(5) collecting tropical cyclone path data of a certain year, obtaining the influence degree of the coral reef area by a plurality of tropical cyclones in the same year according to the steps (1) to (4), and taking the tropical cyclone frequency of the same year into consideration, thereby comprehensively evaluating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclones in the same year.
2. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the tropical cyclone on the coral reef area as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the radius r of the wind circle in the step (2) is as follows:
Figure RE-FDA0003134204220000011
in the formula, VrIs the wind speed at r from the center of the tropical cyclone, m/s;
Vmaxthe maximum near-center wind speed is m/s;
r is the distance from the center of the tropical cyclone, i.e. VrCorresponding windcircle radius, km;
RMW is the maximum wind speed radius, km;
and B is a shape factor.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the fitting calculation formula of the shape coefficient B is as follows:
B=1.0036+0.0173Vmax-0.0312InRMW+0.0087L
wherein L is the tropical cyclone central latitude.
4. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the wind speed value of the coral reef area different from the center of the tropical cyclone in the step (3) is as follows:
interpolating and encrypting the route data of the tropical cyclone into data which is once per hour to obtain corresponding longitude and latitude, central wind speed of the tropical cyclone and maximum wind speed radius RMW of the tropical cyclone, and calculating the wind circle radius r of different wind speeds according to the interpolated tropical cyclone data; then, obtaining the wind speed in the coral reef area which is different from the tropical cyclone center by using an inverse distance weight interpolation method; and performing interpolation by using the obtained data to obtain the wind speed value V of the coral reef area once per hour.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step (4) comprises the following steps:
(4-1) processing the wind speed value V once per hour in the coral reef area, removing the data of which the wind speed value V is less than 24.5m/s, and dividing the wind speed value V into 3 grades: level 1: v is more than or equal to 24.5 and less than 32.7 m/s; and 2, stage: v is more than or equal to 32.7 and less than 41.5 m/s; and 3, level: v is more than or equal to 41.5 and less than 51.0 m/s;
(4-2) setting the tropical cyclone i to influence the coral reef area within x hours of the total time influencing the coral reef area, wherein the wind speed value of the tropical cyclone i influencing the coral reef area within a certain hour is Vx
If the wind speed value V in the time is in the level 1, the following steps are performed:
Vx=V/(1+2+3)
if the wind speed value V in the time is in the level 2, the following steps are performed:
Vx=2V/(1+2+3)
if the wind speed value V in the time is in 3 grades, the following steps are performed:
Vx=3V/(1+2+3)
this pair of tropical cyclones iInfluence degree V of coral reef areaiComprises the following steps:
Vi=V1+V2+…+Vx
6. the method for evaluating the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone as claimed in claim 5, wherein in the step (5), the evaluation method for the influence degree of the coral reef area by the tropical cyclone in the current year is as follows:
according to ViThe calculation method of the method obtains the influence degree V of the total n tropical cyclones on the coral reef area in the current yeari1、Vi2、Vi3…VinThe influence degree V of tropical cyclone on coral reef area in the yeartComprises the following steps:
Vt=Wi1、Vi2、Vi3+…+Vin
7. the method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the influence degree V of tropical cyclone on coral reef area is determined by the influence degree of tropical cyclone of a yeartThe classification is 5 grades:
stage I: v is more than or equal to 0tLess than 100, the coral reef area is extremely low affected by thermal zone cyclone;
II stage: v is more than or equal to 100tLess than 200, the coral reef area is less influenced by tropical cyclone;
grade III: v is more than or equal to 200tLess than 300, the coral reef area is affected by heat with cyclone;
stage IV: v is more than or equal to 300tLess than 400, the coral reef area is highly influenced by thermal zone cyclone;
and V stage: vtNot less than 400, the coral reef area is extremely highly influenced by thermal zone cyclone.
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李元超;陈石泉;郑新庆;蔡泽富;吴钟解;王道儒;兰建新;: "永兴岛及七连屿造礁石珊瑚近10年变化分析", 海洋学报 *

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