CN112802611A - Visual area prevention and control method based on epidemic situation risk model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a visual regional prevention and control method based on an epidemic situation risk model, which is characterized in that the epidemic situation risk model is constructed by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process, real-time multidimensional collection, accurate risk prediction and visual command and scheduling of epidemic situation risk factors are realized, and the problems of lack of real-time property and lack of technical support in comprehensive utilization of epidemic situation data are solved. The method comprises the steps of epidemic situation risk evaluation model construction, epidemic situation data integration and aggregation, epidemic situation data preprocessing and database construction and epidemic situation area visualization application; the invention can quickly construct an epidemic situation risk analysis model and realize comprehensive study and judgment analysis; a visual analysis page is quickly constructed, and multidimensional visualization aiming at epidemic situation analysis in different areas is realized; the method comprises the following steps of automatically pushing an epidemic situation warning short message to a person who goes to an epidemic situation risk area, and solving the problem that the person goes to the epidemic situation risk area without knowing; based on regional space map, multi-dimensional visual, the scientific accurate prevention and control of helping hand epidemic situation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of epidemic situation prevention and control methods, in particular to a visual area prevention and control method based on an epidemic situation risk model.
Background
At present, the global new coronary pneumonia epidemic situation is still in the situation of accelerating to rise and further expanding the spreading situation, and sporadic cases and local gathering epidemic situations also appear in China. The situation of epidemic situation prevention and control in winter and spring is still severe and complex, the tasks of external prevention input and internal rebound prevention are still huge, the problems of large resource investment, time consumption and labor consumption and the like exist after a local case appears, the investigation of close contacts, the personnel track information search, the analysis of relatives, the cold-chain logistics epidemic situation tracing and the like, and meanwhile, the problem that some personnel can not quickly know the situation because the personnel go through an epidemic situation risk area exists, and a visual data analysis result is formed by constructing an epidemic situation risk model, so that a necessary technical means is provided for the change of the passive epidemic situation prevention and control into the active epidemic prevention.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a visual area prevention and control method based on an epidemic situation risk model, which is implemented by constructing the epidemic situation risk model by using an analytic hierarchy process, realizes real-time multidimensional aggregation, accurate risk prediction and visual command and scheduling of the epidemic situation risk factors, and solves the problems of lack of real-time property and lack of technical support in comprehensive utilization of epidemic situation data. The specific technical scheme is as follows:
a visual region prevention and control method based on an epidemic situation risk model comprises epidemic situation risk evaluation model construction, epidemic situation data integration and aggregation, epidemic situation data preprocessing and database construction and epidemic situation region visual application;
the method for constructing the epidemic situation risk assessment model utilizes hierarchical analysis to construct the epidemic situation risk model and establish an epidemic situation risk assessment index system, wherein the index system has both quantitative factors and qualitative factors, and has mutual influence and mutual restriction;
the criterion layer is a primary index and a secondary index of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, the target layer is the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, the primary index of the criterion layer consists of 6 risk factors, the secondary index layer consists of 20 risk factors, 6 primary indexes and 20 secondary indexes are provided for the problem of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, and then a primary index factor set U of the criterion layer is { U1, U2, … and U6}, and a secondary index factor set U is { U1, U2, … and U20 };
the epidemic situation risk assessment model adopts five grades of comments: five risk grades of high risk, higher risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk, which are marked as V ═ V1, V2, …, V5;
and (3) constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix for regional epidemic situation risk assessment, wherein a certain factor set U is set as { U1, U2, … and Un }, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix consists of n factors. For a certain area to be evaluated, the judgment vector of the ith factor is recorded as (r)i1,ri2,…,rim),i＝1,2,3,..,n,rijThe degree of membership registered for the ith factor, jth. Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
then, the fuzzy evaluation matrix for the evaluation of the potential risk of the regional epidemic situation is as follows:
R＝{rij}nxm,i＝1,2,…,n,j＝1,2，…,m；
determining the entropy weight of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment index: firstly, calculating the proportion of the index value of the jth item under the ith index according to the entropy weight by using a fuzzy evaluation matrix
When p isijWhen equal to 0, lnpijMeaningless, so the definition after correction is:
then, the entropy value of the ith index is calculated:
then, entropy weights of i indexes are calculated:
the entropy weight of the comprehensively available regional epidemic situation risk assessment index is A ═ a (a)1,a2,…,an)；
Comprehensive evaluation of epidemic situation area risk assessment: the factor set U ═ U of regional epidemic risk assessment is determined by the steps1,U2,…，UnV ═ V }, evaluation set V ═ V1，,V2，…，VmR, a single-factor fuzzy evaluation matrix R ═ Rij}nxmEntropy weight set a ═ a1,a2,…,an}，
Thus, an epidemic situation risk comprehensive decision-making model is obtained and recorded as (U, V, R), an entropy weight vector A of influence of each factor on regional epidemic situation risk assessment is obtained, and a corresponding comprehensive evaluation vector is recorded as (B) ═ B1，b2，…，bm) And then B ═ axr ═ a ═ R ═ a1,a2,…,an)×R；
The construction method based on the epidemic situation risk assessment model calculates the probability of occurrence of the epidemic situation risk, and divides the regional risk level into five levels of high risk, higher risk, medium risk and low risk according to the regional state.
Furthermore, the integration and collection of epidemic situation data mainly realize the integration of multidimensional epidemic situation full-factor data such as health committee, disease control center, public security, emergency, government center, operators and the like, mainly comprises the collection of various data such as epidemic situation key personnel, key places, identity information, health information, track information, spatial positions and the like and the identification and classification of the data, has wide data sources and various types, and can provide powerful support for the application of epidemic situation risk analysis business.
Further, the epidemic situation data preprocessing database is built based on the correlation aggregation of the whole category and the whole element data of the epidemic situation, the processing, cleaning, fusion, storage and management are carried out on important personnel data, important place data, medical institution data, medical resource data, traffic gate vehicle data, hotel stay data, scenic spot reception data, operator signaling position data and health code data, the correlation analysis is carried out on the collected and aggregated epidemic situation data, and important personnel such as heating personnel, cold chain food practitioners, overseas entry personnel, new inpatients and accompanying personnel, medical institution staff, prisoner staff, harbor staff, customs personnel, students and the like in the inspection area as well as important place and personnel track data such as ports, medical institutions, parks, hotels, markets, restaurants, farmer markets and the like in the area, contact import cold chain data, contact area identification data, and the like, And (4) analyzing relevance of geographic spatial data, position data of operator signaling and the like, and establishing an epidemic situation full-element data resource subject library.
Further, the visual application system of the epidemic situation area mainly has the functions of epidemic situation risk warning and pushing management, epidemic situation propagation track analysis, regional personnel distribution and flow analysis and epidemic situation area thermodynamic diagram application.
By adopting the technical scheme, the method has the following beneficial effects:
according to the method, different source data such as Weijian Commission, public security, traffic, operators and the like are fused, an epidemic situation risk analysis model is quickly constructed, and comprehensive research and judgment analysis is realized; a visual analysis page is quickly constructed, and multidimensional visualization aiming at epidemic situation analysis in different areas is realized; the method comprises the following steps of automatically pushing an epidemic situation warning short message to a person who goes to an epidemic situation risk area, and solving the problem that the person goes to the epidemic situation risk area without knowing; based on regional space map, multi-dimensional visual, the scientific accurate prevention and control of helping hand epidemic situation.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the overall architecture of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a table of epidemic risk assessment index system of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the implementation of the epidemic situation data preprocessing and database building.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Example 1: the visual region prevention and control method based on the epidemic situation risk model shown in fig. 1 comprises epidemic situation risk assessment model construction, epidemic situation data integration and aggregation, epidemic situation data preprocessing and database construction and epidemic situation region visual application;
the essence of the risk assessment of epidemic occurrence is a quantitative analysis process, i.e. a number is used to reflect the probability of possible epidemic occurrence. According to the fuzzy optimization theory of the system, the existing relevant research and actual investigation conditions on the importance of the risk index of the new crown epidemic situation are combined, and an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is selected and utilized to construct an epidemic situation risk model.
Principle of hierarchical analysis: the analytic hierarchy process decomposes the problem into different composition factors according to the nature of the problem and the total target to be achieved, and combines the factors according to the mutual correlation influence and membership relation among the factors in different levels to form a multi-level analytic structure model, thereby finally leading the problem to be summarized into the determination of the relative important weight of the lowest level (scheme, measure and the like for decision making) relative to the highest level (total target) or the scheduling of the relative order of superiority and inferiority.
Establishing an epidemic situation risk evaluation index system: in an evaluation index system, the method has both quantitative factors and qualitative factors, and the factors influence and restrict each other. According to experience of epidemic situation prevention and control, a regional risk assessment index system composed of a target layer (regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment) and a criterion layer (primary index and secondary index of regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment) is established by utilizing a basic principle of an analytic hierarchy process, and is shown in fig. 2.
The criterion layer is a primary index and a secondary index of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, the target layer is the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, the primary index of the criterion layer consists of 6 risk factors, the secondary index layer consists of 20 risk factors, 6 primary indexes and 20 secondary indexes are provided for the problem of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, and then a primary index factor set U of the criterion layer is { U1, U2, … and U6}, and a secondary index factor set U is { U1, U2, … and U20 };
the epidemic situation risk assessment model adopts five grades of comments: five risk grades of high risk, higher risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk, which are marked as V ═ V1, V2, …, V5;
and (3) constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix for regional epidemic situation risk assessment, wherein a certain factor set U is set as { U1, U2, … and Un }, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix consists of n factors. For a certain area to be evaluated, the judgment vector of the ith factor is recorded as (r)i1,ri2,…,rim),i＝1,2,3,..,n,rijIs the ith factorj registered degrees of membership. Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
then, the fuzzy evaluation matrix for the evaluation of the potential risk of the regional epidemic situation is as follows:
R＝{rij}nxm,i＝1,2,…,n,j＝1,2，…,m；
determining the entropy weight of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment index: firstly, calculating the proportion of the index value of the jth item under the ith index according to the entropy weight by using a fuzzy evaluation matrix
When p isijWhen equal to 0, lnpijMeaningless, so the definition after correction is:
then, the entropy value of the ith index is calculated:
then, entropy weights of i indexes are calculated:
the entropy weight of the comprehensively available regional epidemic situation risk assessment index is A ═ a (a)1,a2,…,an)；
Comprehensive evaluation of epidemic situation area risk assessment: the factor set U ═ U of regional epidemic risk assessment is determined by the steps1,U2,…，UnV ═ V }, evaluation set V ═ V1，,V2，…，VmR, a single-factor fuzzy evaluation matrix R ═ Rij}nxmEntropy weight set a ═ a1,a2,…,an}，
Thereby obtaining epidemic situationAnd the risk comprehensive decision model is marked as (U, V and R), an entropy weight vector A influencing the regional epidemic situation risk evaluation by each factor is marked as (B) and a corresponding comprehensive judgment vector is marked as (B)1，b2，…，bm) And then B ═ axr ═ a ═ R ═ a1,a2,…,an)×R；
The construction method based on the epidemic situation risk assessment model calculates the probability of occurrence of the epidemic situation risk, and divides the regional risk level into five levels of high risk, higher risk, medium risk and low risk according to the regional state.
The epidemic situation data integration and collection mainly realizes the integration of multi-dimensional epidemic situation full-factor data such as health committee, disease control center, public security, emergency, government center, operator and the like, mainly comprises the collection of various data such as epidemic situation key personnel, key places, identity information, health information, track information, spatial positions and the like and the identification and classification of the data, has wide data sources and various types, and can provide powerful support for the application of epidemic situation risk analysis business.
The epidemic situation data preprocessing database is based on the association and aggregation of the whole category and the whole element data of the epidemic situation, the processing, cleaning, fusion, storage and management are carried out on key personnel data, key site data, medical institution data, medical resource data, traffic gate vehicle data, hotel check-in data, scenic spot reception data, operator signaling position data and health code data, the association analysis is carried out on the collected and aggregated epidemic situation data, and the key personnel such as heating personnel, cold chain food personnel, overseas entry personnel, new inpatients and accompanying personnel, medical institution personnel, prisoner, harbor personnel, customs personnel, students and the like in the inspection area, the medical institution, school, hotel, market, restaurant, park, farmer market and the like, and the trajectory data of the key sites and personnel in the area, the medical institution, school, hotel, market, restaurant, park, farmer market and the like, and the contact import cold chain data, And (4) analyzing relevance of geographic spatial data, position data of operator signaling and the like, and establishing an epidemic situation full-element data resource subject library.
The visual application system for the epidemic situation area mainly has the functions of epidemic situation risk warning and pushing management, epidemic situation propagation track analysis, area personnel distribution and flow analysis and epidemic situation area thermodynamic diagram application.
Epidemic risk warning and pushing management: based on the epidemic situation risk model and the personnel flow track information, the epidemic situation warning short message is automatically pushed to the personnel who go to the higher risk area, the personnel are reminded to carry out accounting detection prompt, and the problem that some people do not know when going to the epidemic situation risk area is solved.
Epidemic situation propagation track analysis application: based on the regional space map, the relation network of asymptomatic infectors and close contacts thereof is depicted by a visualization means, the activity tracks of the close contacts are visually and dynamically presented, and the government is helped to quickly and accurately prevent and control and provide real-time comprehensive data.
Regional personnel distribution and flow analysis applications: the method comprises the steps of carrying out multi-dimensional personnel distribution and flow display based on health codes of a national government affair service platform, communication operator data and public security data, carrying out many-to-many rendering by combining the number of personnel in key places for the current distribution of foreign immigration personnel in each area provided by an operator, carrying out emigration and emigration analysis based on Tencent and operator data, counting the population conditions of high and medium risk in emigration and emigration in the last 14 days, supporting the multi-dimensional counting according to cities, counties, streets, communities and parks, finding peaks and change trends of emigration and emigration from data, and dynamically depicting potential risks in each area in a chart form.
The epidemic situation area thermodynamic diagram is applied as follows: based on the addresses of the risk personnel and the address information of the close contacts, longitude and latitude information is obtained from the map service of the Internet platform, based on longitude and latitude data and GIS, a contact relation map is constructed, and regional epidemic situation thermodynamic diagrams are highlighted according to different levels. Dividing the epidemic situation risk area into five levels of high risk, higher risk, middle risk, low risk and low risk from high to low, wherein the corresponding risk level is red, orange, yellow, blue and green, and the darker the color is, the higher the epidemic situation risk degree is.
The method is based on the fusion of comprehensive epidemic situation prevention and control multi-dimensional data, visual analysis and linkage tracing of the risk of an epidemic situation area are realized, the power-assisted epidemic situation prevention and control is changed from passive coping and disposal to active prediction early warning prevention and control, and accurate and scientific prevention and control is realized.
The invention solves the problems that the utilization real-time property of comprehensive epidemic data analysis is deficient, and managers at all levels can not realize real-time overall perception on the conditions of different levels of areas such as cities, parks, streets, communities and the like; the method mainly has a cutting mode at present for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in each place, lacks the data basis of risk analysis in the area, builds a risk model by carrying out statistical analysis on various risk factors of personnel, realizes scientific decision according to the risk factors, and performs general prevention and control on the important prevention and control in the area with large risk and the area with small risk; the current registered data mainly comprise names, identity card information and whether fever occurs, the invention expands the types of occupation, whether cold chain contact occurs and the like, and an epidemic situation risk model is constructed by an artificial intelligence technology; by accurately collecting epidemic situation data in real time and constructing an epidemic situation risk model, emergency command and decision of the government are effectively assisted; an epidemic situation risk model is constructed based on artificial intelligence and big data technology, an epidemic situation risk area is rapidly identified, and epidemic situation risk early warning information is accurately pushed.
Having thus described the basic principles and principal features of the invention, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited by the embodiments described above, which are given by way of illustration only, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (4)
1. A visual area prevention and control method based on an epidemic situation risk model is characterized by comprising epidemic situation risk evaluation model construction, epidemic situation data integration and aggregation, epidemic situation data preprocessing and database construction and epidemic situation area visual application;
the method for constructing the epidemic situation risk assessment model utilizes hierarchical analysis to construct the epidemic situation risk model and establish an epidemic situation risk assessment index system, wherein the index system has both quantitative factors and qualitative factors, and has mutual influence and mutual restriction;
the criterion layer is a primary index and a secondary index of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, the target layer is the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, the primary index of the criterion layer consists of 6 risk factors, the secondary index layer consists of 20 risk factors, 6 primary indexes and 20 secondary indexes are provided for the problem of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment, and then a primary index factor set U of the criterion layer is { U1, U2, … and U6}, and a secondary index factor set U is { U1, U2, … and U20 };
the epidemic situation risk assessment model adopts five grades of comments: five risk grades of high risk, higher risk, medium risk, low risk and low risk, which are marked as V ═ V1, V2, …, V5;
and (3) constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix for regional epidemic situation risk assessment, wherein a certain factor set U is set as { U1, U2, … and Un }, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix consists of n factors. For a certain area to be evaluated, the judgment vector of the ith factor is recorded as (r)i1,ri2,…,rim),i＝1,2,3,..,n,rijThe degree of membership registered for the ith factor, jth. Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
then, the fuzzy evaluation matrix for the evaluation of the potential risk of the regional epidemic situation is as follows:
R＝{rij}nxm,i＝1,2,…,n,j＝1,2，…,m；
determining the entropy weight of the regional epidemic situation potential risk assessment index: firstly, calculating the proportion of the index value of the jth item under the ith index according to the entropy weight by using a fuzzy evaluation matrix
When p isijWhen equal to 0, lnpijMeaningless, so the definition after correction is:
then, the entropy value of the ith index is calculated:
then, entropy weights of i indexes are calculated:
the entropy weight of the comprehensively available regional epidemic situation risk assessment index is A ═ a (a)1,a2,…,an)；
Comprehensive evaluation of epidemic situation area risk assessment: the factor set U ═ U of regional epidemic risk assessment is determined by the steps1,U2,…，UnV ═ V }, evaluation set V ═ V1，,V2，…，VmR, a single-factor fuzzy evaluation matrix R ═ Rij}nxmEntropy weight set a ═ a1,a2,…,an}，
Thus, an epidemic situation risk comprehensive decision-making model is obtained and recorded as (U, V, R), an entropy weight vector A of influence of each factor on regional epidemic situation risk assessment is obtained, and a corresponding comprehensive evaluation vector is recorded as (B) ═ B1，b2，…，bm) And then B ═ axr ═ a ═ R ═ a1,a2,…,an)×R；
The construction method based on the epidemic situation risk assessment model calculates the probability of occurrence of the epidemic situation risk, and divides the regional risk level into five levels of high risk, higher risk, medium risk and low risk according to the regional state.
2. The visual area prevention and control method based on the epidemic situation risk model is characterized in that the epidemic situation data are integrated and collected, the integration of multi-dimensional epidemic situation full-factor data such as health commission, disease control center, public security, emergency, government center and operators is mainly realized, the collection of various data such as epidemic situation key personnel, key places, identity information, health information, track information and spatial positions and the identification and classification of the data are mainly included, the data source is wide, the types are multiple, and powerful support can be provided for the application of the epidemic situation risk analysis business.
3. The visual area prevention and control method based on the epidemic situation risk model as claimed in claim 1, wherein the epidemic situation data preprocessing database is built based on the association and aggregation of the complete category and the complete element data of the epidemic situation, and the processing, cleaning, fusion storage and management are performed on the key personnel data, the key location data, the medical institution data, the medical resource data, the traffic access vehicle data, the hotel attendance data, the scenic spot reception data, the operator signaling position data and the health code data, the association analysis is performed on the collected and aggregated epidemic situation data, and the inspection area is provided with heating personnel, cold chain food personnel, overseas border personnel, new inpatients and accompanying personnel, medical institution personnel, prison personnel, harbor personnel, customs personnel, students and other key personnel, and the area harbor, medical institution, school, etc And (3) performing relevance analysis on key places such as hotels, shopping malls, restaurants, parks, farmer markets and the like, and personnel trajectory data, contact import cold chain data, geographic space data, position data of operator signaling and the like, and establishing an epidemic situation full-element data resource theme base.
4. The visual area prevention and control method based on the epidemic situation risk model is characterized in that the main functions of the visual application system of the epidemic situation area comprise epidemic situation risk warning push management, epidemic situation propagation track analysis, area personnel distribution and flow analysis and epidemic situation area thermodynamic diagram application.
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Cited By (6)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN113298468A (en) * | 2021-05-25 | 2021-08-24 | 北京京东振世信息技术有限公司 | Logistics data processing method, device, medium and electronic equipment |
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| CN115409318B (en) * | 2022-07-22 | 2024-03-19 | 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州) | Natural-based water purification scheme optimization method integrating fuzzy AHP and MDS |
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