CN112632799A - Method and device for valuing design wind speed of power transmission line - Google Patents
Method and device for valuing design wind speed of power transmission line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application provides a method and a device for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring short-term meteorological observation data; screening a plurality of gale events from long-term meteorological observation data according to the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological station; assimilating short-term observation data into initial field data, and establishing a weather forecast model of a research area based on the collected data and the assimilated initial field data; simulating the screened strong wind events to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind events; and calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point in the research area to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at the preset height in each high wind event, calculating the recurrence period wind speed of each grid point based on the ratio and the recurrence period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, and performing section division and conversion on the power transmission line to be built to obtain the design wind speed value of each section of the power transmission line at the preset height. The method can effectively improve the accuracy of the value of the designed wind speed of the power transmission line in the area with rare data.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of transmission line engineering design, in particular to a value and a device for a designed wind speed of a transmission line.
Background
For transmission line engineering, wind load is one of the loads that needs to be considered heavily. The higher the value of the designed wind speed is, the stronger the wind resistance of the project is, and the higher the project cost is. Therefore, the reasonable determination of the designed wind speed has important significance on the design of the power transmission line.
For areas with dense weather stations and abundant data, the weather stations have better representativeness to the climate of the place where the project is located. The method comprises the steps of collecting actually measured wind speed data of a plurality of meteorological stations, calculating wind speeds of the meteorological stations in different recurrence periods by using a probability statistical method, and combining terrain correction to obtain accurate designed wind speeds of the power transmission line. However, for remote areas where meteorological stations are rare and representativeness of the meteorological stations is poor, the method for determining the design wind speed of the power transmission line by using probability statistics is often poor in effect. With the continuous promotion of large-scale development, long-distance power transmission engineering and energy internet construction in the western part of China, the power transmission line engineering design faces the difficult problem of designing wind speed values in more and more data-free areas.
The meteorological numerical simulation method is a method for simulating the atmospheric motion condition from the mechanism according to the basic physical law of the climate and the change thereof. With the development of computers and numerical calculation methods, numerical simulation has become the main method for quantitatively studying climate and its changes. In some important large-scale projects, power transmission line projects have tried to introduce a meteorological numerical simulation method, specifically a Weather Forecasting mode (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model, abbreviated as WRF), which analyzes The wind field distribution in The project area in terms of mechanism and provides a certain basis for designing The wind speed value.
However, the problem that extreme value simulation is smaller than an actual value when the WRF mode is adopted for meteorological numerical simulation is solved, and the situation that the designed wind speed is too small and the wind resistance of the power transmission line is insufficient is easily caused when the meteorological numerical result is directly adopted for designing the wind speed value.
Therefore, the method and the device capable of effectively taking the value of the designed wind speed of the power transmission line have great significance.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the application provides a method and a device for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line, and the method and the device can effectively improve the accuracy of evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line in the rare area of the meteorological station.
Specifically, the method comprises the following technical scheme:
the embodiment of the application provides a method for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by acquiring meteorological values for more than one year at least one temporary meteorological station established along a power transmission line to be established;
calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a participating meteorological station, wherein the participating meteorological station is selected from long-term meteorological stations in a research area, and the power transmission line to be built is located in the research area;
selecting a plurality of gale events from the long-term meteorological observation data of the participating meteorological station according to the recurrence period wind speed of the participating meteorological station;
assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system in a weather forecast mode, and establishing a weather forecast model of the research area based on topographic data, surface vegetation type data, meteorological reanalysis data, long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area;
calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at the preset height in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result;
calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference meteorological station;
according to the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point in the research area at a preset height, section division is carried out on the power transmission line to be built along the line, and the reappearance period wind speed of each section is obtained;
and converting the reappearance period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition by using the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built.
Optionally, before acquiring the short-term meteorological observation data, the method further includes:
performing weather forecast simulation on the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data and the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station of the research area to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the research area;
and selecting one line from candidate power transmission lines as the power transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area.
Optionally, before acquiring the short-term meteorological observation data, the method further includes:
and selecting a setting position of the temporary meteorological station based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, wherein the setting position accords with at least one condition of the upwind direction of the incoming wind along the power transmission line to be built, the climbing section of the wind, the maximum wind speed position and the strong wind boundary position.
Optionally, the simulating the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area includes:
and simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulation wind field, and correcting the initial simulation wind field by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
Optionally, the witness-participating meteorological station is obtained by the following steps:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from among the long-term weather stations within the area of interest;
and selecting at least one reference meteorological station from the candidate long-term meteorological stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed of the temporary meteorological station and the candidate long-term meteorological stations on the same day and the rise-fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event.
The embodiment of the present application further provides a device for evaluating design wind speed of a power transmission line, the device includes:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by acquiring meteorological values for more than one year at least one temporary meteorological station established along a power transmission line to be established;
the calculation module is used for calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a participating meteorological station, the participating meteorological station is selected from long-term meteorological stations in a research area, and the power transmission line to be built is located in the research area;
the selecting module is used for selecting a plurality of gale events from the long-term meteorological observation data of the participating meteorological station according to the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological station;
the model establishing module is used for assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system in a weather forecast mode, and establishing a weather forecast model of the research area based on topographic data, surface vegetation type data, meteorological reanalysis data, long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
the simulation module is used for simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area;
the calculation module is further configured to calculate, based on the wind speed simulation result, a ratio of a maximum wind speed of each grid point in the research area at a preset height in each high wind event to a maximum wind speed of a grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at a preset height in each high wind event; calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference meteorological station;
the value taking module is used for carrying out section division on the power transmission line to be built along the line according to the recurrence period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at a preset height to obtain the recurrence period wind speed of each section; and converting the reappearance period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition by using the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built.
Optionally, the simulation module is further configured to perform weather forecast simulation on the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data, and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area, so as to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the research area;
the selection module is further configured to select one line from the candidate power transmission lines as the power transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module is further configured to select a setting position of the temporary meteorological station based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area, where the setting position meets at least one condition of an upwind direction of an incoming wind along the power transmission line to be built, a wind climbing section, a maximum wind speed position, and a strong wind boundary.
Optionally, the simulation module is configured to simulate the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulated wind field, and correct the initial simulated wind field by using a stepwise correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module is further configured to:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from among the long-term weather stations within the area of interest;
and selecting at least one reference meteorological station from the candidate long-term meteorological stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed of the temporary meteorological station and the candidate long-term meteorological stations on the same day and the rise-fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application has the beneficial effects that at least:
the method and the device for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line, provided by the embodiment of the application, are used for acquiring short-term meteorological observation data acquired by temporary meteorological stations established along the power transmission line, assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a weather forecast mode data assimilation system, and establishing a weather forecast model according to topographic data, earth surface vegetation type data, meteorological reanalysis data of a research area, long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological stations and the initial field data, wherein the model can be used for more accurately simulating the research area with rare data. Screening out at least one gale event from the long-term meteorological observation data according to the recurrent-period wind speed of the participating meteorological station, simulating each screened gale event by adopting the weather forecasting model, calculating the recurrent-period wind speed of each lattice point based on a wind speed simulation result and the recurrent-period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, according to the reappearance period wind speed, the sections of the power transmission line are divided along the line, the reappearance period wind speed is converted along the height gradient change coefficient according to the wind speed of each grid point to obtain the design wind speed value of each section of the power transmission line, the simulation wind speed value of each grid point is corrected according to the actual measurement data of the long-term meteorological station and the temporary meteorological station to obtain the reappearance period wind speed of each grid point, and further obtaining the designed wind speed value of each section of the power transmission line to be built, improving the accuracy of the value of the designed wind speed of the power transmission line in the area with rare data and ensuring the safety of the power transmission line.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments are briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating a designed wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of another method for evaluating a designed wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of another method for evaluating a designed wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 4 is a flowchart of another power transmission line design wind speed value taking method provided in the embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of a device for evaluating a designed wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
With the above figures, there are shown specific embodiments of the present application, which will be described in more detail below. These drawings and written description are not intended to limit the scope of the inventive concepts in any manner, but rather to illustrate the inventive concepts to those skilled in the art by reference to specific embodiments.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present application. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
Unless defined otherwise, all technical terms used in the examples of the present application have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. Before further detailed description of the embodiments of the application, some terms used in understanding the examples of the application are explained.
In order to make the technical solutions and advantages of the present application clearer, the following will describe the embodiments of the present application in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for evaluating a designed wind speed of a power transmission line, where the method includes:
102, calculating the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological stations, wherein the participating meteorological stations are selected from long-term meteorological stations in the research area, and the power transmission line to be built is located in the research area.
The recurrence period is the interval of the occurrence moments when the wind speed value is greater than the designed wind speed value twice continuously in the statistical sense. In the embodiment of the application, probability distribution fitting is carried out on observation data of the reference meteorological station to obtain a fitting curve of a wind speed value and the occurrence frequency. For a certain recurrence period T0The corresponding frequency of occurrence is P1/T0The wind speed value corresponding to the occurrence frequency in the fitted curve is referred to as the recurrence period T0Corresponding recurrence period wind speed.
For power transmission line engineering, the maximum wind speed that may occur in a high wind event of 50 years or 100 years of engineering generally needs to be considered. Therefore, in the embodiment of the application, the corresponding reappearance period wind speed of the witness-participating meteorological station with the reappearance period of 50 years or 100 years can be calculated.
Specifically, the wind speed in the recurrence period of the parametric meteorological station can be calculated by using any one of extreme value I-type distribution, Weibull distribution, Pearson-type III distribution and lognormal distribution.
And 103, selecting at least one gale event from the long-term meteorological observation data of the participating meteorological station according to the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological station. The start-stop time period of each gale event is obtained.
Specifically, at least one high wind event can be randomly screened from the long-term meteorological observation data. Alternatively, a gale event occurring in the long-term meteorological observation data may be rated as the next gale event at a rating corresponding to its maximum wind speed value. And acquiring the grades of the multiple strong wind events, and carrying out frequency statistics. The method comprises the steps of screening out at least one gale event from long-term meteorological observation data, wherein the screening out the gale event with the grade greater than or equal to a specific grade or the screening out the gale event with the occurrence frequency greater than a specific frequency can be used. For example, the screened high wind events may be 8 times.
And according to the reappearance period wind speed, at least one moment wind speed in each gale event selected from the long-term observation data of the participating meteorological station reaches or approaches the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological station. The gale event screened from the long-term meteorological observation data according to the reappearance period wind speed of the witness meteorological station is more typical, and the gale condition possibly encountered along the power transmission line in the future can be reflected, so that the designed wind speed value of the power transmission line is more accurate.
And step 104, assimilating short-term meteorological observation Data into initial field Data by using a WRF mode Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system, and establishing a WRF Model of The Research area based on topographic Data, surface vegetation type Data, meteorological reanalysis Data, long-term meteorological observation Data of a long-term meteorological station and The assimilated initial field Data of The Research area.
The WRF mode is an open-source weather forecast mode and is written by Fortran90, and the WRF mode has the characteristics of portability, easiness in maintenance, expandability and the like. The mode can be used for individual case simulation of real weather and can also be used for researching basic physical processes in weather. Those skilled in the art can download and modify and set relevant parameters to establish a WRF model of the research area. The WRFDA system in the WRF mode can assimilate various data to generate an updated initial field through a three-dimensional assimilation method. In the embodiment of the application, the WRFDA system is utilized to assimilate short-term meteorological observation data into an initial field, so that the simulation precision of the established WRF model on a research area can be improved.
Before establishing the model, the topographic data, the earth surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area need to be acquired in advance. Specifically, the Research area is an area where a power transmission line is to be erected, and in order to facilitate utilization of a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, the Research area is an area covering the power transmission line to be built. The weather reanalysis data of the research area can be obtained from various ways, for example, from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
And 105, simulating the research area by adopting a WRF model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area. Wherein the simulated time period is the start-stop time period of each strong wind event.
And 106, calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each gale event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at the preset height in each gale event based on the wind speed simulation result. Wherein, the preset height may be 10 m.
For example, if the number of the acquired gale events is 8, for a specific grid, the gale events are corresponding to 8 times, and assuming that n wind speed values exist in each gale event, the maximum value of the 8 × n wind speed values is acquired as the maximum wind speed of the grid point. And calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at the preset height in each high wind event, wherein for each grid point, a plurality of ratios are corresponding, and the number of the ratios is equal to the number of the high wind events.
And 107, calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at the preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference meteorological station.
In implementation, for each grid point, the mean value of a plurality of corresponding ratio values is calculated, and the mean value is multiplied by the recurrence period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, so that the recurrence period wind speed at the preset height of the grid point is obtained. The wind speed of the temporary meteorological station in the recurrence period at the preset height is calculated according to the wind speed of the meteorological station in the recurrence period, and the specific calculation process will be described in detail later.
And 108, according to the recurrence period wind speed of each lattice point in the research area at the preset height, dividing sections along the power transmission line to be built to obtain the recurrence period wind speed of each section.
And step 109, converting the reappearance period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition by using the wind speed gradient change coefficient of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built.
Specifically, the wind speed gradient change coefficient of each grid point along the height is calculated according to the wind speed values of each grid point at different heights. For example, the change coefficient of the wind speed along the height gradient of each section may be obtained by performing grade division according to the change coefficient of the wind speed along the height gradient of each grid point along the power transmission line to be built. Or when the section division is carried out on the power transmission line to be built along the line, the wind speed gradient change coefficient corresponding to each section is selected according to the wind speed gradient change coefficient of a plurality of grid points in each section along the height and/or the actual terrain condition of each section.
In the implementation, for remote areas, meteorological data are not comprehensive enough or local meteorological data cannot be obtained, and the wind speed result obtained by directly adopting the WRF mode simulation often has the problem of small extreme value, so that the design wind speed of the power transmission line to be built cannot be set directly according to the simulation result of the WRF mode.
In the embodiment of the application, short-term meteorological observation data obtained by acquiring meteorological values at least one short-term meteorological station established along a line of a power transmission line to be established are acquired, and the short-term meteorological observation data are assimilated into initial field data by using a three-dimensional assimilation technology of a WRFDA system in a WRF mode. And taking the area where the power transmission line to be built is as a research area, acquiring topographic data, earth surface value quilt type data, weather reanalysis data, long-term weather observation data of a long-term weather station and assimilated initial field data of the research area, and establishing a WRF model of the research area. The initial field data of the model assimilates the short-term meteorological observation data of the short-term meteorological station, so the meteorological change of the research area can be simulated more accurately. The method comprises the steps of simulating at least one gale event screened from long-term meteorological observation data based on an established WRF model of a research area, obtaining a maximum wind speed value at a preset height of each grid point in the gale events, obtaining the recurrence period wind speed of each grid point based on the maximum wind speed value of each grid point and the recurrence period wind speed of a temporary meteorological station, dividing wind speed sections of a power transmission line to be built according to the recurrence period wind speed of each grid point, and converting the recurrence period wind speed of each section to obtain the design wind speed value of each section.
In summary, the WRF model established in the method for evaluating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line provided by the embodiment of the application can more accurately reflect the meteorological changes of the research area where the power transmission line to be built is located, the maximum wind speed horizontal change and the vertical change of the grid point along the power transmission line to be built can be more accurately obtained by simulating at least one high wind event screened from the long-term meteorological observation data, and the simulation result is corrected according to the recurrence period wind speeds of the reference meteorological station and the temporary meteorological station, so that the more accurate value of the designed wind speed of each section of the power transmission line to be built can be obtained, and the safety of the power transmission line engineering is improved.
Optionally, referring to fig. 2, step 108 may include:
And 1083, dividing grid points which are adjacent and represent the same wind speed value in the recurrence period into the same section, so as to divide the power transmission line to be built into sections, and obtain the recurrence period wind speed of each section. For example, the number of the divided grade intervals can be 8, and the power transmission line to be built is divided into 18 wind speed sections along the line. Wherein the wind speed in the reappearance period is a non-standard ground-based wind speed.
It should be noted that other manners may also be adopted for the ranking, such as setting a plurality of wind speed nodes according to engineering experience, performing the ranking according to the plurality of wind speed nodes, and the like. The present embodiment merely provides an exemplary method for dividing the grade interval, and does not limit the present application.
Optionally, step 109 may convert the recurrence period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition with a wind shear index of 0.15 according to the wind speed gradient change coefficient of each section according to a power exponential function relationship.
For different terrain areas, due to the fact that the ground roughness is different, the change speed of the wind speed along the height direction is also different, and large errors can exist when the wind speed values directly observed or directly simulated in the different terrain areas are directly compared. According to the wind speed gradient change coefficient of each section, the reproduction period wind speed of each section is converted into the wind speed under the condition of the standard terrain with the wind shear index of 0.15 according to the power index function relationship, so that the converted standard wind speed value can be used for comparison among different terrains. Wherein the standard terrain condition is an open flat ground condition.
In practical applications, step 109 may further include, according to engineering experience and designed wind speed and operation conditions of existing lines, modifying the plurality of wind speed sections obtained by division according to a division principle that in the technical specification of meteorological survey in power engineering (DL/T5158-2012), the same wind section should belong to the same climate zone, weather conditions for forming strong wind are substantially consistent, terrain conditions are similar, altitude is similar, and designed wind speed is substantially equal, for example, combining adjacent sections where standard wind speed values are similar into the same section, and the like.
Optionally, referring to fig. 3, in step 101, before acquiring short-term weather observation data, the method further includes:
And 1001, selecting one line from the candidate power transmission lines as a power transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area.
In practice, for a certain transmission line project, there are generally a plurality of candidate transmission lines. In order to obtain a line which is low in cost and easy to realize from a candidate power transmission line, WRF simulation is performed on a research area based on topographic data, surface vegetation type data, weather reanalysis data and long-term weather observation data of a long-term weather station of the research area, and a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area is obtained. On the basis of the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, comparing wind field areas where a plurality of candidate power transmission lines are located, and selecting a line which is low in cost and easy to achieve from the candidate power transmission lines as the power transmission line by combining the terrain where each candidate power transmission line is located.
In some embodiments, the route may be optimized based on the originally planned route and the WRF simulation result, for example, the originally planned route passes through the core area of the strong wind halfway and the route may be adjusted appropriately, so that the route avoids the core area of the strong wind, which may reduce the designed wind speed, save the engineering cost, and ensure the safety of the engineering.
Optionally, with continued reference to fig. 3, before acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, in step 101, and after obtaining a wind velocity profile of the research area, in step 1000, the method further includes:
In operation, after acquiring the wind speed distribution map of the research area, the setting position of the temporary meteorological station is selected according to the wind speed distribution of the research area. In the embodiment of the application, the setting position of the temporary meteorological station meets at least one condition of the upwind direction of the incoming wind, the climbing section of the wind, the maximum wind speed position and the strong wind boundary position along the power transmission line to be built. The conditions can ensure that the temporary meteorological station carries out meteorological monitoring on a plurality of key positions of the power transmission line to be built, so that the simulation result of the subsequently built WRF model of the area where the power transmission line to be built is more accurate, and the more accurate design wind speed of the power transmission line is obtained.
In one embodiment, four temporary meteorological stations can be set, so that the four temporary meteorological stations respectively conform to the upwind direction of the incoming wind along the power transmission line to be built, the climbing section of the wind, the maximum wind speed position and the strong wind boundary position, and comprehensive meteorological observation is performed on a plurality of key positions along the power transmission line to be built.
It should be noted that, for different power transmission line projects, the setting positions of the temporary weather stations may be different, and those skilled in the art can select the setting positions of the temporary weather stations according to actual situations on the basis of the embodiment of the present application. The location of the temporary weather station provided in the embodiments of the present application is not limited to the present application.
In the embodiment of the application, the geographical data, the earth surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area are utilized to perform WRF simulation on the research area, a line with lower cost is selected from candidate power transmission lines as a power transmission line to be built according to simulation results, and the setting position of the temporary weather station is selected along the power transmission line to be built according to the WRF simulation results, so that the cost of power transmission line engineering can be reduced, the accuracy of the design wind speed value of the power transmission line to be built is improved, and the safety of the power transmission line engineering is ensured.
Optionally, a WRF model is used to simulate the research area, and a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area is obtained, including:
and simulating the research area by adopting a WRF model to obtain an initial simulation wind field, and correcting the initial simulation wind field by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
The basic process of the stepwise correction method is as follows: and gradually correcting the initial simulation wind field obtained by the WRF model simulation by utilizing the measured data until the corrected wind field approaches the observation data. In the embodiment of the application, after the research area is simulated by adopting the WRF model to obtain the initial simulation wind field, the initial simulation wind field can be corrected by adopting a gradual correction method and utilizing the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station and the short-term meteorological observation data of the temporary meteorological station, so that the wind speed simulation result is more practical, the more accurate design wind speed of the power transmission line is obtained, and the safety of the power transmission line is further ensured.
In the embodiment of the application, a WRF model is adopted to carry out fine numerical simulation with the resolution ratio of 1km multiplied by 1km one by one on at least one selected gale event, the wind speed and the wind direction of the whole gale event within 10min are output, deviation correction is carried out by utilizing measured meteorological observation data of a temporary meteorological station and a long-term meteorological station, and a more accurate simulation result is obtained.
Specifically, calibrating the initial numerical simulation result of the wind speed according to the wind speed observation data of the long-term meteorological station and the wind speed data actually measured by at least one temporary meteorological station in the WRF mode innermost simulation area comprises:
firstly, simulation error analysis is carried out on the simulated wind speed of the actual measurement point location, wherein the actual measurement point location is the positions of the long-term meteorological station and the temporary meteorological station in the WRF mode innermost simulation area, and the simulation error analysis is that the simulation error of the point location is calculated according to the actual observation data and the initial numerical simulation result of the actual measurement point location.
Secondly, a distance weighting method is adopted to obtain simulation errors on all grid points. For example, for any grid, the simulation error is obtained by weighting the linear combination of the simulation errors of the actual measurement points in the surrounding influence area, wherein the longer the distance between the grid point and a certain actual measurement point is, the smaller the weight corresponding to the simulation error of the actual measurement point is.
And finally, eliminating the simulation errors on all the grid points by using the simulation errors on all the grid points to obtain a more accurate wind speed numerical simulation result.
And analyzing the corrected simulation result, screening out the maximum wind speed in each grid point process, drawing a maximum wind speed diagram in the line grid point process, and analyzing the partition characteristics of the high wind process on the power transmission line to be built.
Optionally, referring to fig. 4, the witness-participating weather station is obtained by selecting the following steps:
at step 1021, a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations are selected from the long-term weather stations in the area of interest.
The long-term weather station is a weather station which is originally in a research area and has been subjected to long-term weather observation. In some embodiments, long-term weather stations that simultaneously satisfy the following conditions are selected as candidate long-term weather stations:
(1) the wind measuring environment is kept unchanged for years;
(2) the terrain and weather characteristics of the geographic location of the weather station are regional representativeness;
(3) the historical weather observation age reaches a preset age, which may be, for example, 30 years.
And 1022, selecting at least one reference meteorological station from the candidate long-term meteorological stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed on the same day of the temporary meteorological station and the candidate long-term meteorological stations and the rise-fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event.
In this embodiment, the factors mainly considered when selecting the witness meteorological station are the correlation between the meteorological observation data of the witness meteorological station and the temporary meteorological station and the rise and fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event. The method comprises the steps of firstly, calculating the maximum wind speed correlation coefficient of the candidate long-term weather station and the temporary weather station on the same day, comparing the fluctuation change of the wind speed of the candidate long-term weather station and the temporary weather station in a typical gale event, and selecting the weather station with the higher maximum wind speed correlation coefficient on the same day and the more consistent fluctuation change of the wind speed in the gale event as the evidence-participating weather station. When the number of the temporary weather stations is more than one, one evidence-participating weather station is selected for each temporary weather station.
In some embodiments, the candidate long-term weather stations and the temporary weather stations can be combined to select the witness weather stations according to the similarity of wind measuring environments, the similarity of wind measuring terrains, the distance from the power transmission line to be built and the like.
Optionally, the wind speed of the temporary meteorological station in the recurrence period is obtained by transplanting according to the wind speed of the participating meteorological station in the recurrence period.
Two ways of transplanting the reoccurring-period wind speed to the temporary meteorological station are enumerated here, and those skilled in the art can select other ways according to actual conditions on the basis of the lists.
Firstly, a fitting equation of the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence of a certain gale event in the short-term meteorological observation data of the temporary meteorological station and the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence of the same gale event of the witness-participating meteorological station is obtained by calculating the correlation relation. And calculating the wind speed of the participating meteorological stations in the recurrence period, and calculating the wind speed of the temporary meteorological station in the recurrence period by using the wind speed of the participating meteorological stations in the recurrence period and the fitting equation.
And secondly, acquiring a wind speed value of a gale event with the wind speed reaching a first preset level in short-term meteorological observation data of the temporary meteorological station as a first sample, acquiring a wind speed value of a gale event with the wind speed reaching a second preset level in long-term meteorological observation data of the reference meteorological station as a second sample, wherein the first sample and the second sample are meteorological observation data of the same gale event, and calculating a hourly wind speed ratio of the first sample and the second sample. And carrying out cumulative probability arrangement on the hourly wind speed ratio of the first sample and the second sample, and acquiring the wind speed ratio of which the cumulative probability reaches a preset probability value. And calculating the wind speed of the participating meteorological station in the recurrence period, and obtaining the wind speed of the temporary meteorological station in the recurrence period by utilizing the wind speed of the participating meteorological station in the recurrence period and the wind speed ratio of the accumulated probability reaching the preset probability value.
The high wind event with the wind speed grade greater than n grades means that the wind speed at least one moment in the secondary high wind event is greater than n grades. The first predetermined level is a level selected based on the overall wind speed level distribution of the short-term meteorological station observation data of the temporary meteorological station, for example, the first predetermined level may be a wind speed level of a maximum wind speed value or a lower level of the wind speed level of the maximum wind speed value in most of the high wind events in the short-term meteorological observation data. Similarly, the second preset level is the wind speed level of the maximum wind speed value in the multiple gale events in the meteorological observation data of the witness-participating meteorological station or the lower level of the wind speed level of the maximum wind speed value. Those skilled in the art can select the wind speed level which can reflect the actual situation of the weather station in the strong wind period according to the actual situation. The preset probability value can be 90%, and the wind speed of the temporary meteorological station in the recurrence period, which is calculated by utilizing the wind speed ratio of the time-by-time wind speed ratio of the first sample and the second sample to reach the preset probability value, is more accurate and is closer to the extreme climate possibly encountered by the power transmission line to be built in the work.
In summary, the method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line provided by the embodiment of the application can establish a more accurate WRF model of a research area, and at least one typical gale event is selected according to the recurrence period wind speed of the witness-participating meteorological station. And after the WRF model is adopted to simulate the at least one gale event to obtain an initial simulation result, correcting the model result by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain a more accurate wind speed simulation result. Based on the wind speed simulation result, more accurate design wind speed of the power transmission line can be obtained, so that the design of the subsequent power transmission line is more scientific, and the safety and the stability of the power transmission line are ensured. Meanwhile, the power transmission line to be built can be selected from the candidate power transmission lines and the setting position of the temporary meteorological station can be selected according to the WRF simulation result of the research area, so that the engineering cost can be further reduced, the accuracy of the designed wind speed value of the power transmission line is improved, and the safety and the economy of the power transmission line engineering are ensured.
Based on the same thought, the embodiment of the application also provides a device for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line. Referring to fig. 5, the apparatus includes:
the data acquisition module 210 is configured to acquire short-term meteorological observation data, where the short-term meteorological observation data is acquired by acquiring meteorological data for more than one year at least one temporary meteorological station established along a power transmission line to be established.
And the calculation module 220 is used for calculating the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological stations, wherein the participating meteorological stations are selected from long-term meteorological stations in the research area, and the power transmission line to be built is in the research area.
And the selecting module 230 is used for selecting at least one gale event from the long-term meteorological observation data of the participating meteorological station according to the recurrence period wind speed of the participating meteorological station. The start-stop time period of each gale event is obtained.
And the model establishing module 240 is used for assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into the initial field data by using the WRFDA system in the WRF mode, and establishing a WRF model of the research area based on the topographic data, the earth surface vegetation type data, the meteorological reanalysis data, the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area.
And the simulation module 250 is used for simulating the research area by adopting a WRF model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area. Wherein the simulated time period is the start-stop time period of each strong wind event.
The calculation module 220 is further configured to calculate, based on the wind speed simulation result, a ratio of a maximum wind speed of each grid point in the research area at a preset height in each high wind event to a maximum wind speed of a grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at a preset height in each high wind event; and calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point in the research area at the preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference meteorological station.
The value taking module 260 is used for dividing sections along the power transmission line to be built according to the recurrence period wind speed of each lattice point in the research area at the preset height to obtain the recurrence period wind speed of each section; and converting the reappearance period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built. Wherein, the preset height may be 10 m.
Optionally, the simulation module 250 is further configured to perform a WRF simulation on the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data, and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area, so as to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the research area.
The selecting module 230 is further configured to select one line from the candidate power transmission lines as a power transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module 230 is further configured to select a setting position of the temporary meteorological station based on a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, where the setting position meets at least one condition of an upwind port of incoming wind, a wind climbing section, a maximum wind speed position, and a strong wind boundary along the power transmission line to be built.
Optionally, the simulation module 250 is configured to simulate the research area by using a WRF model to obtain an initial simulated wind field, and correct the initial simulated wind field by using a stepwise correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module 230 is further configured to:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations in the research area;
and selecting at least one evidence-participating meteorological station from the candidate long-term meteorological stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed on the same day of the temporary meteorological station and the candidate long-term meteorological stations and the rise-fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event.
With continued reference to fig. 5, the apparatus further comprises: a wind speed migration module 270.
And the wind speed transplanting module 270 is used for transplanting the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological station to the temporary meteorological station to obtain the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station.
With regard to the apparatus in the above-described embodiment, the specific manner in which each module performs the operation has been described in detail in the embodiment related to the method, and will not be elaborated here.
In summary, the device for estimating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line provided by the embodiment of the application can assimilate the short-term meteorological observation data of the temporary meteorological station arranged along the power transmission line to be built into the initial field data of the WRF mode, combining the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data and the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station of the research area to establish a WRF model of the research area, utilizing the model to simulate multiple gale events of the research area, obtaining more accurate maximum wind speed of the research area, on the basis, more accurate recurrence period wind speed of each grid point is calculated, so that accurate section division can be performed on the power transmission line to be built, the designed wind speed value of each section of the power transmission line to be built is obtained, the accuracy of the designed wind speed value of the power transmission line in the area with few data is improved, and the safety of the power transmission line engineering is improved.
In this application, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance. The term "plurality" means two or more unless expressly limited otherwise.
Other embodiments of the present application will be apparent to those skilled in the art from consideration of the specification and practice of the present application disclosed herein. This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of the invention following, in general, the principles of the application and including such departures from the present disclosure as come within known or customary practice within the art to which the invention pertains. It is intended that the specification and examples be considered as exemplary only.
It will be understood that the present application is not limited to the precise arrangements described above and shown in the drawings and that various modifications and changes may be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the application is limited only by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by acquiring meteorological values for more than one year at least one temporary meteorological station established along a power transmission line to be established;
calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a participating meteorological station, wherein the participating meteorological station is selected from long-term meteorological stations in a research area, and the power transmission line to be built is located in the research area;
selecting a plurality of gale events from the long-term meteorological observation data of the participating meteorological station according to the recurrence period wind speed of the participating meteorological station;
assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system in a weather forecast mode, and establishing a weather forecast model of the research area based on topographic data, surface vegetation type data, meteorological reanalysis data, long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area;
calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at the preset height in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result;
calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference meteorological station;
according to the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point in the research area at a preset height, section division is carried out on the power transmission line to be built along the line, and the reappearance period wind speed of each section is obtained;
and converting the reappearance period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition by using the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built.
2. The method for estimating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein before the short-term meteorological observation data is acquired, the method further comprises:
carrying out meteorological numerical simulation on the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the meteorological reanalysis data and the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station of the research area to obtain a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area;
and selecting one line from candidate power transmission lines as the power transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area.
3. The method for estimating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 2, wherein before the short-term meteorological observation data is acquired, the method further comprises:
and selecting a setting position of the temporary meteorological station based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, wherein the setting position accords with at least one condition of the upwind direction of the incoming wind along the power transmission line to be built, the climbing section of the wind, the maximum wind speed position and the strong wind boundary position.
4. The method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the step of simulating the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain the wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area comprises the following steps:
and simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulation wind field, and correcting the initial simulation wind field by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
5. The method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the witness-participating meteorological station is obtained by the following steps:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from among the long-term weather stations within the area of interest;
and selecting at least one reference meteorological station from the candidate long-term meteorological stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed of the temporary meteorological station and the candidate long-term meteorological stations on the same day and the rise-fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event.
6. The utility model provides a transmission line designs wind speed value device which characterized in that, the device includes:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by acquiring meteorological values for more than one year at least one temporary meteorological station established along a power transmission line to be established;
the calculation module is used for calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a participating meteorological station, the participating meteorological station is selected from long-term meteorological stations in a research area, and the power transmission line to be built is located in the research area;
the selecting module is used for selecting a plurality of gale events from the long-term meteorological observation data of the participating meteorological station according to the reappearance period wind speed of the participating meteorological station;
the model establishing module is used for assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system in a weather forecast mode, and establishing a weather forecast model of the research area based on topographic data, surface vegetation type data, meteorological reanalysis data, long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
the simulation module is used for simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each gale event in the research area;
the calculation module is further configured to calculate, based on the wind speed simulation result, a ratio of a maximum wind speed of each grid point in the research area at a preset height in each high wind event to a maximum wind speed of a grid point corresponding to the temporary meteorological station at a preset height in each high wind event; calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference meteorological station;
the value taking module is used for carrying out section division on the power transmission line to be built along the line according to the recurrence period wind speed of each lattice point of the research area at a preset height to obtain the recurrence period wind speed of each section; and converting the reappearance period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under a standard terrain condition by using the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built.
7. The device for estimating design wind speed of power transmission line according to claim 6,
the simulation module is further used for performing weather forecast simulation on the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather reanalysis data and the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station of the research area to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the research area;
the selection module is further configured to select one line from the candidate power transmission lines as the power transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution map of the research area.
8. The electric transmission line design wind speed value taking device according to claim 7, wherein the selection module is further configured to select a setting position of the temporary meteorological station based on a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, wherein the setting position meets at least one of conditions of an upwind direction of an incoming wind along the electric transmission line to be built, a climbing section of the wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary position.
9. The device for estimating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 6, wherein the simulation module is configured to simulate the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulated wind field, and correct the initial simulated wind field by using a stepwise correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of high wind processes in the research area.
10. The device for estimating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 6, wherein the selection module is further configured to:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from among the long-term weather stations within the area of interest;
and selecting at least one reference meteorological station from the candidate long-term meteorological stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed of the temporary meteorological station and the candidate long-term meteorological stations on the same day and the rise-fall consistency of the wind speed in the gale event.
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