CN112613647A - Wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy - Google Patents
Wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and particularly relates to a wind power disorder index and prediction effect evaluation method based on an information entropy theory. The invention comprises the following steps: step 1, acquiring a random component of wind power output; step 2, calculating the probability corresponding to the second random component; step 3, respectively calculating the entropy value of the wind power output prediction and the entropy value of the actual wind power output, and calculating the absolute value of the difference between the two values; and 4, judging the disordering simulation effect of the prediction method. The stability and the disorder of the wind power prediction method are evaluated by using an informatics entropy theory aiming at the stability and the disorder of the wind power prediction result, so that the scientificity and the comprehensiveness of the prediction evaluation method can be obviously improved, and the accuracy and the stability of the wind power prediction can be improved. Meanwhile, the average value and the distribution standard of the wind power prediction error are comprehensive and accurate, and the method plays an important role in stable frequency modulation of a power grid.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and particularly relates to a wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy.
Background
Wind power prediction mainly refers to prediction of wind power plant output, and a wind power prediction result can be used for short-term prediction and ultra-short-term prediction of power generation output of a power grid dispatching department and is an important basis for making a day-ahead plan by power grid dispatching. The accuracy of wind power prediction is improved, the safety and stability level of a power grid can be improved, and the development and utilization of renewable energy sources are promoted.
Because the wind power generation output has strong randomness and volatility, the wind power prediction is very important for predicting the randomness and the disorder of the output. The disorder reflects the difference degree of error values of all sample points, has obvious influence on the exertion level of the prediction method, and is mainly reflected in the difference degree of wind power prediction results. The high disorder of the prediction result shows that several prediction values are larger from the actual value, so that the primary frequency modulation difficulty of the power grid is large, and the demand of the power grid on peak modulation is large.
The evaluation of the current prediction method mainly comprises the steps of calculating relative errors and root-mean-square errors and estimating the probability density of wind power errors. The two methods are mature at present, are based on probability theory, and describe the average value and the standard deviation of distribution of wind power prediction errors by adopting a Gaussian-parameter equal probability distribution model.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy. The method aims to evaluate the stability and the disorder of the prediction method by using an informatics entropy theory aiming at the stability and the disorder of the wind power prediction result, and improve the scientificity and comprehensiveness of the prediction evaluation method.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for realizing the purpose is as follows:
a wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating the probability of occurrence of a sample prediction error value;
step 2, calculating an error entropy value;
and 3, judging the stability of the prediction effect according to the magnitude of the error entropy.
Further, the step 1 of calculating the probability of the occurrence of the sample prediction error value is to calculate the ith sample, which is expressed as:
wherein: delta xiRepresenting the predicted value of the wind power output of the ith sample
With the actual value xiM represents the number of sample points.
Further, the calculating the error entropy value in step 2 is represented as:
further, in the step 3, the stability of the prediction effect is judged according to the magnitude of the error entropy, and the relative magnitude of the stability of the prediction method is obtained according to the analysis of the information entropy of the prediction result by adopting an error entropy method, so that a better prediction method is selected.
A computer storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, the computer program, when executed by a processor, implementing the steps of the method for estimating wind power prediction stability based on error entropy.
The invention has the following beneficial effects and advantages:
the method aims at the stability and disorder of the wind power prediction result, and evaluates the stability and disorder of the prediction method. According to the method, the relatively large stability of the prediction method is obtained by using an informatics entropy theory and analyzing the information entropy of the prediction result, so that a better prediction method is selected, the accuracy and stability of wind power prediction can be improved, and the scientificity and comprehensiveness of the prediction evaluation method are improved.
Drawings
The above and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily appreciated from the following description of the embodiments, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of which:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention can be more clearly understood, a more particular description of the invention will be rendered by reference to the appended drawings. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present application may be combined with each other without conflict.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, however, the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described herein, and therefore the scope of the present invention is not limited by the specific embodiments disclosed below.
The solution of some embodiments of the invention is described below with reference to fig. 1.
Example 1
The invention provides an embodiment, and relates to a wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy, as shown in fig. 1, and fig. 1 is a flow chart of the invention.
According to the theory of information theory, information is a measure of the order of a system and entropy is a measure of the disorder of a system. To solve the quantitative measurement problem of information, shannon (c.e. shannon) in 1948 proposed the concept of information entropy and defined it as the probability of discrete random events occurring. The calculation formula of the information entropy is as follows:
in the formula: p (x)i) Representing the probability of occurrence of the variable x, xiIs a random variable.
The entropy method is a classical method for evaluating the disorder of information: for a certain item of information, the smaller the entropy value of the information is, the larger the variation degree of the information is, and the worse the stability of the sample sequence is; conversely, the larger the entropy value, the better the stability.
In the effect evaluation of wind power prediction, the stability of the prediction method is evaluated by introducing the idea of information entropy, namely the error entropy H (delta). And after the result of the wind power prediction appears, evaluating the stability of the wind power prediction method by adopting the calculation result of the error entropy. The method comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating the probability of occurrence of the prediction error value of the ith sample, which can be expressed as:
wherein: delta xiRepresenting the predicted value of the wind power output of the ith sample
With the actual value xiM represents the number of sample points, and p (Δ xi) ═ Δ xix, a random variable in the system.
And 2, calculating an error entropy value which can be expressed as:
and 3, judging the stability of the prediction effect according to the magnitude of the error entropy.
The expected effect is as follows:
by adopting the error entropy method, the relative size of the stability of the prediction method can be obtained according to the analysis of the information entropy of the prediction result, so that a better prediction method is selected, and the accuracy and the stability of wind power prediction are improved.
Example 2
The invention provides an embodiment, and based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the invention further provides a computer storage medium, wherein a computer program is stored on the computer storage medium, and when being executed by a processor, the computer program realizes the steps of the wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on the error entropy in the embodiment 1.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (5)
1. A wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on error entropy is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating the probability of occurrence of a sample prediction error value;
step 2, calculating an error entropy value;
and 3, judging the stability of the prediction effect according to the magnitude of the error entropy.
2. The wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on the error entropy as claimed in claim 1, wherein: step 1, calculating the probability of occurrence of the sample prediction error value is to calculate the ith sample, which is expressed as:
wherein: delta xiRepresenting the predicted value of the wind power output of the ith sample
With the actual value xiM represents an absolute error value therebetweenThe number of sample points.
3. The wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on the error entropy as claimed in claim 1, wherein: step 2, calculating the error entropy value as:
4. the wind power prediction stability evaluation method based on the error entropy as claimed in claim 1, wherein: and 3, judging the stability of the prediction effect according to the magnitude of the error entropy, namely obtaining the relative magnitude of the stability of the prediction method by adopting an error entropy method according to the analysis of the information entropy of the prediction result, thereby selecting a better prediction method.
5. A computer storage medium, characterized by: the computer storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program when executed by a processor implements the steps of the method for estimating wind power prediction stability based on error entropy according to claims 1 to 4.
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Citations (4)
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| US6061610A (en) * | 1997-10-31 | 2000-05-09 | Nissan Technical Center North America, Inc. | Method and apparatus for determining workload of motor vehicle driver |
| CN103886186A (en) * | 2014-03-05 | 2014-06-25 | 河海大学 | Entropy method for determining concrete-filled steel tube bearing force design error distribution |
| US20160169202A1 (en) * | 2013-05-03 | 2016-06-16 | State Grid Corporation Of China | Short-term operation optimization method of electric power system including large-scale wind power |
| CN111900743A (en) * | 2020-07-28 | 2020-11-06 | 南京东博智慧能源研究院有限公司 | Wind power frequency modulation potential prediction error distribution estimation method |
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- 2020-12-13 CN CN202011465624.2A patent/CN112613647A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US6061610A (en) * | 1997-10-31 | 2000-05-09 | Nissan Technical Center North America, Inc. | Method and apparatus for determining workload of motor vehicle driver |
| US20160169202A1 (en) * | 2013-05-03 | 2016-06-16 | State Grid Corporation Of China | Short-term operation optimization method of electric power system including large-scale wind power |
| CN103886186A (en) * | 2014-03-05 | 2014-06-25 | 河海大学 | Entropy method for determining concrete-filled steel tube bearing force design error distribution |
| CN111900743A (en) * | 2020-07-28 | 2020-11-06 | 南京东博智慧能源研究院有限公司 | Wind power frequency modulation potential prediction error distribution estimation method |
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| Title |
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| 李勇 等: ""基于动态熵权的短期风速组合预测"", 《沈阳工业大学学报》, 31 May 2016 (2016-05-31), pages 1 - 3 * |
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