CN112561364A - Power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application provides a power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight, which comprises the steps of applying a fishbone diagram method, identifying operation and maintenance cost influence factors from multiple aspects such as natural environment, economic development, equipment state and the like, collecting relevant index actual data, determining each index weight, combining data analysis, obtaining comprehensive weight of each index, obtaining state evaluation results of each region based on a linear weighting method, combining actual levels of operation and maintenance cost of each region, carrying out contrastive analysis on the evaluation results and the actual levels, and evaluating whether the actual levels of each region are reasonable or not. The technical scheme in the application can be combined with the conditions of economic development, natural environment and the like in different areas to carry out scientific and reasonable evaluation on the operation and maintenance cost level, so that the reasonable determination and investment decision of the operation and maintenance cost are further guided.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of investment of power grid operation and maintenance cost, in particular to a power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight.
Background
In recent years, the investment of the power grid in China is increased year by year, and the scale of the power grid assets is remarkably increased. Along with the development of national economy, the capital construction investment scale of the power grid is gradually expanded, the contradiction between the development of high-intensity investment, the increase of the cost rigidity and the gradual increase of the electric quantity speed and the difficulty in the increase of the benefit is increasingly prominent, the difficulty in keeping stable operation and completing the profit target is increased, and higher requirements are put forward on the investment decision of the power grid.
In the future, the newly increased investment scale of the power grid enterprise is strictly restricted and is comprehensively influenced by complex factors such as macroscopic economy downlink and the like, the electric quantity acceleration maintaining pressure is increased, and the power grid business yield level and the income risk are increased. The high-speed investment does not accord with the current power grid enterprise operation reality, and the investment strategy needs to be readjusted to adapt to the change of new situation. In the face of such huge investment scale, how to comply with the development direction of resource conservation and environmental protection formulated in China meets the power development requirement, optimizes the cost input scale of power grid enterprises, and improves the lean level of power grid investment management becomes a vital part in power grid enterprise operation management.
Therefore, a scientific and reasonable operation and maintenance cost rationality evaluation model is urgently needed, and through quantitative evaluation analysis, scientific determination of reasonable operation and maintenance cost levels in various regions is facilitated, and high-efficiency fine management levels of operation and maintenance operation projects of power grid enterprises are facilitated to be improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight, and the high-efficiency fine management level of operation and maintenance overhaul projects of a power grid enterprise is improved, so that the problem that the existing cost is determined unreasonably is solved.
The technical scheme adopted by the application for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight comprises the following steps:
identifying influence factors, namely identifying the influence factors by using a fishbone diagram method from different angles such as quantity and price by combining with an operation and maintenance cost determination mode, and screening and analyzing from a multi-dimensional view angle by combining with expert experience to determine main influence factor indexes;
collecting relevant index actual data;
determining the weight of each index, and obtaining the comprehensive weight of each index by combining data analysis;
calculating the standard cost state level of each region based on a linear weighting method and combined with the data normalization result;
and comparing the calculation result with the actual cost level to determine the rationality of the operation and maintenance cost of different areas.
Optionally, the determining the weight of each index, and obtaining the comprehensive weight of each index by combining data analysis, includes:
and determining objective weight based on an entropy weight method and determining subjective weight by combining a layer analysis method.
Optionally, the method further includes: determining the influence factors of the operation and maintenance cost by combining the components of the operation and maintenance cost;
comprehensively considering economic development elements, equipment state elements and natural environment elements aiming at the measuring and calculating mode of the operation and maintenance cost of the current power grid enterprise;
and (3) identifying the influence factors by using a fishbone diagram method, and determining the main influence factors by using a brain storm method and a Delphi method.
Optionally, the determining the subjective weight by the objective weight based on the entropy weight method includes:
the evaluation model is as follows: setting n evaluation indexes to decide and evaluate m schemes to be selected;
xik: the estimated value x of the evaluation index i of the scheme k to be selectedi *: evaluating an ideal value of the index i;
definition of xikFor x ofiApproach toDegree Dik：
DikNormalization treatment:
overall entropy: the entropy E of the m candidate schemes evaluated by the n evaluation indexes is as follows:
overall entropy when the indicator is independent of the scheme:
if the relative importance of the evaluation index is irrelevant to the scheme to be selected, the entropy is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula:
then, the uncertainty of the relative importance of the evaluation index i to the decision evaluation of the selected scheme can be determined by the following conditional entropy; conditional entropy of evaluation index i
di(k 1-m), i.e. di1 ≈ di2 ≈ … dik;
and (3) carrying out normalization processing on the formula to obtain an entropy value representing the importance of the evaluation decision of the evaluation index i:
optionally, determining the subjective weight of each index based on an analytic hierarchy process includes:
constructing a hierarchical structure, carrying out refinement and decomposition on the decision problem, combing to construct a hierarchical structure from top to bottom, decomposing the complex problem into a plurality of core elements, and playing a decision-pair domination role on the lower layer elements by the upper layer elements;
constructing a judgment matrix, and evaluating the corresponding relation between elements by using a 1-9 scale method and using numbers 1-9 and reciprocal thereof as scales;
checking whether each judgment matrix is reasonably designed by adopting a consistency index CI (common interface) and whether logic errors exist, when the CI is less than 0.10, the judgment matrix is reasonable, and does not need to be adjusted again within an acceptable range, otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be further adjusted and corrected;
after the single ordering consistency meets the requirement, consistency inspection is carried out on the total ordering, if the inspection is passed, the current weight ordering result can be used as a final decision basis, and if the consistency index is larger than 0.1, new construction needs to be carried out on each index layer;
the comprehensive weight calculation mode is as follows: the integrated weight is 0.8 subjective weight +0.2 objective weight.
Optionally, obtaining the state level of the operation and maintenance cost of each region by using a linear weighting method model includes:
the calculation model is as follows:
in the formula: w is aij(i 1,2, …, n, j 1,2, …, m) as the weight of the index, xijIs the normalized data of the index.
Optionally, the rationality is judged by combining the actual conditions of the standard cost of each region, including:
the calculation method is as follows:
in the formula: fi *To be a coefficient of rationality, FxiThe actual levels of the respective regions.
The technical scheme provided by the application comprises the following beneficial technical effects:
the application provides a power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight, which comprises the steps of applying a fishbone diagram method, identifying operation and maintenance cost influence factors from multiple aspects such as natural environment, economic development, equipment state and the like, collecting relevant index actual data, determining each index weight, combining data analysis, obtaining comprehensive weight of each index, obtaining state evaluation results of each region based on a linear weighting method, combining actual levels of operation and maintenance cost of each region, carrying out contrastive analysis on the evaluation results and the actual levels, and evaluating whether the actual levels of each region are reasonable or not. The technical scheme in the application can be combined with the conditions of economic development, natural environment and the like in different areas to carry out scientific and reasonable evaluation on the operation and maintenance cost level, so that the reasonable determination and investment decision of the operation and maintenance cost are further guided.
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In order to more clearly explain the technical solution of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious to those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a combined weight-based power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technique provided in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating fishbone map influencing factor identification provided in an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of hierarchical analysis structure division according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions in the present application better understood by those skilled in the art, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application; it is to be understood that the embodiments described are only a few embodiments of the present application and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
As shown in fig. 1, the technology for evaluating the rationality of the operation and maintenance cost level of the power grid based on the combination weight provided in the embodiment of the present application specifically includes the following steps:
s1, identifying influence factors
And identifying the influence factors, combining an operation and maintenance cost determination mode, identifying the influence factors from different angles such as quantity and price by using a fishbone diagram method, and screening and analyzing from a multi-dimensional view angle by combining expert experience. And determining the main influence factor index.
And S2, collecting actual data of the relevant indexes.
And S3, determining the weight of each index. And in combination with data analysis, on one hand, objective weight determination is carried out based on an entropy weight method, on the other hand, subjective weight determination is carried out in combination with an analytic hierarchy process, and finally, comprehensive weight of each index is obtained.
And S4, calculating the standard cost state level of each area based on a linear weighting method and by combining the data normalization result.
And S5, comparing the calculation result with the actual cost level to determine the rationality of the operation and maintenance cost of different areas.
According to the economic development conditions, equipment state levels and the like of different regions serving as the basis for determining the operation and maintenance cost, the scientificity and the applicability of cost determination are improved, the determination mode of the operation and maintenance cost is combined, influence factors are identified, on one hand, objective weight determination is carried out based on an entropy weight method, on the other hand, subjective weight determination is carried out by combining an analytic hierarchy process, and finally comprehensive weight of each index is obtained.
In step S1, the determining the influencing factors of the operation and maintenance cost by combining the components of the operation and maintenance cost includes:
(1) the method aims at measuring and calculating the operation and maintenance cost of the current power grid enterprise, and comprehensively considers economic development elements, equipment state elements, natural environment elements and the like
(2) The fish bone map method is used for identifying the influence factors, the brain storm method and the Delphi method are used for determining the main influence factors, and a fish bone map influence factor identification map is shown in figure 2.
In step S3, objective weights of the indexes are determined based on an entropy weight method, and if the entropy of information of an index is smaller, it indicates that the index is worth varying to a greater extent, the amount of information provided is greater, the effect that can be played in the comprehensive evaluation is greater, and the weight is greater.
The evaluation model is as follows: and setting n evaluation indexes to make decision and evaluate m candidate schemes. x is the number ofik: and (4) an estimated value of the evaluation index i of the scheme k to be selected. x is the number ofi *: the ideal value of the index i is evaluated. x is the number ofi *The value varies depending on the characteristics of the evaluation index, and x is the profitability indexi *The larger the better; for the index of loss (inverse index), xi *The smaller the size, the better (the positive index may be obtained).
Definition of xikFor x ofi *Proximity Dik：
DikNormalization treatment:
overall entropy: the entropy E of the m candidate schemes evaluated by the n evaluation indexes is as follows:
overall entropy when the indicator is independent of the scheme:
if the relative importance of the evaluation index is irrelevant to the scheme to be selected, the entropy is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula:
thus, the uncertainty of the relative importance of the evaluation index i to the candidate decision evaluation can be determined by the following conditional entropy.
Conditional entropy of evaluation index i
From the extreme property of entropy, di(k is 1-m), that is, di1 ≈ di2 ≈ … dik, the closer to equality, the larger the conditional entropy is, and the larger the uncertainty of the evaluation index on the evaluation decision of the candidate scheme is.
And carrying out normalization processing on the formula to obtain an entropy value representing the importance of the evaluation decision of the evaluation index i.
In step S3, subjective weights of the respective indexes are determined based on an analytic hierarchy process. The calculation model is as follows:
firstly, a hierarchical structure is constructed, a decision problem is refined and decomposed, a hierarchy structure from top to bottom is constructed by combing, a complex problem is decomposed into a plurality of core elements, upper-layer elements play a decision-pair domination role on lower-layer elements, and a hierarchical analysis structure division intention is shown in fig. 3.
When AHP analysis decision-making problem is applied, firstly, the responsible problem is decomposed into a plurality of elements, then the elements are decomposed into a plurality of layers according to the attributes of the elements, and finally, a problem structure model with layers is constructed and used as the basis for calculation of an analytic hierarchy process, and the method comprises the following steps:
structural judgment matrix
In order to represent the weight correspondence between the respective elements, a judgment matrix needs to be constructed, and the correspondence between the elements is generally evaluated by a 1-9 scaling method and using numbers 1-9 and their inverses as scales.
Single rank consistency check
Generally, a consistency index CI is used for checking whether each judgment matrix is reasonably designed and whether logic errors exist, and generally, when the CI is less than 0.10, the judgment matrix is reasonable and does not need to be adjusted again within an acceptable range, otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be further adjusted and corrected.
Total ordering consistency check
After the single ordering consistency meets the requirement, consistency check is also needed to be carried out on the total ordering. If the check is passed, the current weight sorting result can be used as a final decision basis. If the consistency index is larger than 0.1, each index layer also needs to be newly constructed.
The comprehensive weight calculation mode is as follows: the integrated weight is 0.8 subjective weight +0.2 objective weight.
In step S4, the state level of the operation and maintenance cost of each region is obtained by using a linear weighting method model. The calculation model is as follows:
according to the analysis, the standard cost states of different regions are determined, namely:
in the formula: w is aij(i 1,2, …, n, j 1,2, …, m) as the weight of the index, xijIs the normalized data of the index.
In step S5, the rationality is determined by combining the actual conditions of the standard cost in each area.
The calculation method is as follows:
in the formula, Fi *To be a coefficient of rationality, FxiThe actual levels of the respective regions.
On the basis of comprehensively analyzing the composition of the operation and maintenance cost, the method is combined with related existing research results, a fishbone diagram method is used for scientifically identifying the influence factors, the influence degree of the influence factors is judged and analyzed in combination with expert experience, and an entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process are used for carrying out comprehensive weight calculation in combination with multiple project actual index data. The primary influencing factors are identified. And analyzing the conduction relation of different factors to the operation and maintenance cost, calculating the actual state levels of different areas by combining the comprehensive weight, and finally obtaining the rationality evaluation result. According to the technical scheme disclosed by the method, the accurate determination requirement of the operation and maintenance cost of the power grid can be met to the greatest extent, and the accurate measurement and calculation of the operation and maintenance cost of the transformer substation and the power transmission line are realized by obtaining the rationality level evaluation results of different areas along with the change of the main factors. Through scientific calculation conclusion, the scientific reasonability of the operation and maintenance cost determination is improved, so that the operation and maintenance cost investment decision can be made according to the operation and maintenance cost determination, and the complex operation situation of the power grid enterprise is favorably faced.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the flow of the method implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by a computer program, which is stored in a computer readable storage medium, to instruct related hardware. The computer readable storage medium is a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only memory or a random access memory.
It is noted that relational terms such as "first" and "second," and the like, may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that an article or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The above description is merely exemplary of the present application and is presented to enable those skilled in the art to understand and practice the present application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the application. Thus, the present application is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
It will be understood that the present application is not limited to what has been described above and shown in the accompanying drawings, and that various modifications and changes can be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the application is limited only by the appended claims.
Claims (7)
1. A power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology based on combination weight is characterized by comprising the following steps:
identifying influence factors, namely identifying the influence factors by using a fishbone diagram method from different angles such as quantity and price by combining with an operation and maintenance cost determination mode, and screening and analyzing from a multi-dimensional view angle by combining with expert experience to determine main influence factor indexes;
collecting relevant index actual data;
determining the weight of each index, and obtaining the comprehensive weight of each index by combining data analysis;
calculating the standard cost state level of each region based on a linear weighting method and combined with the data normalization result;
and comparing the calculation result with the actual cost level to determine the rationality of the operation and maintenance cost of different areas.
2. The technology for evaluating the reasonableness of the operation and maintenance cost level of the power grid based on the combined weight according to claim 1, wherein the step of determining the weight of each index and obtaining the comprehensive weight of each index by combining data analysis comprises the following steps:
and determining objective weight based on an entropy weight method and determining subjective weight by combining a layer analysis method.
3. The grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technique based on combining weights according to claim 2, characterized in that the method further comprises: determining the influence factors of the operation and maintenance cost by combining the components of the operation and maintenance cost;
comprehensively considering economic development elements, equipment state elements and natural environment elements aiming at the measuring and calculating mode of the operation and maintenance cost of the current power grid enterprise;
and (3) identifying the influence factors by using a fishbone diagram method, and determining the main influence factors by using a brain storm method and a Delphi method.
4. The technology for evaluating the reasonableness of the operation and maintenance cost level of the power grid based on the combined weight according to claim 2, wherein the objective weight determination of the subjective weight based on the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
the evaluation model is as follows: setting n evaluation indexes to decide and evaluate m schemes to be selected;
xik: the estimated value x of the evaluation index i of the scheme k to be selectedi: evaluating an ideal value of the index i;
definition of xikFor x ofiProximity Dik：
DikNormalization treatment:
overall entropy: the entropy E of the m candidate schemes evaluated by the n evaluation indexes is as follows:
overall entropy when the indicator is independent of the scheme:
if the relative importance of the evaluation index is irrelevant to the scheme to be selected, the entropy is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula:
then, the uncertainty of the relative importance of the evaluation index i to the decision evaluation of the selected scheme can be determined by the following conditional entropy;
conditional entropy of evaluation index i
di(k 1-m), i.e. di1 ≈ di2 ≈ … dik;
and (3) carrying out normalization processing on the formula to obtain an entropy value representing the importance of the evaluation decision of the evaluation index i:
5. the combination weight-based power grid operation and maintenance cost level rationality evaluation technology according to any one of claims 2 or 3, wherein the step of determining the subjective weight of each index based on an analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
constructing a hierarchical structure, carrying out refinement and decomposition on the decision problem, combing to construct a hierarchical structure from top to bottom, decomposing the complex problem into a plurality of core elements, and playing a decision-pair domination role on the lower layer elements by the upper layer elements;
constructing a judgment matrix, and evaluating the corresponding relation between elements by using a 1-9 scale method and using numbers 1-9 and reciprocal thereof as scales;
checking whether each judgment matrix is reasonably designed by adopting a consistency index CI (common interface) and whether logic errors exist, when the CI is less than 0.10, the judgment matrix is reasonable, and does not need to be adjusted again within an acceptable range, otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be further adjusted and corrected;
after the single ordering consistency meets the requirement, consistency inspection is carried out on the total ordering, if the inspection is passed, the current weight ordering result can be used as a final decision basis, and if the consistency index is larger than 0.1, new construction needs to be carried out on each index layer;
the comprehensive weight calculation mode is as follows: the integrated weight is 0.8 subjective weight +0.2 objective weight.
6. The technology for evaluating the reasonableness of the operation and maintenance cost level of the power grid based on the combined weight according to any one of claims 2 or 3, wherein the state level of the operation and maintenance cost of each region obtained by applying a linear weighting method model comprises the following steps:
the calculation model is as follows:
in the formula: w is aij(i 1,2, …, n, j 1,2, …, m) as the weight of the index, xijIs the normalized data of the index.
7. The technology for evaluating the reasonableness of the operation and maintenance cost level of the power grid based on the combined weight according to claim 1, is characterized in that the reasonableness is judged by combining actual conditions of standard cost of each region, and comprises the following steps:
the calculation method is as follows:
in the formula: fiTo be a coefficient of rationality, FxiThe actual levels of the respective regions.
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