CN112561128A - Method for predicting daily passenger capacity of conventional buses for future urban rail transit transfer - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting daily passenger traffic of a conventional bus for future urban rail transit transfer, which comprises the following steps: step 1, collecting the current rail transit line length, the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus and the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by rail transit; and 2, calculating the proportion of the current rail transit transfer conventional bus to the conventional bus passenger flow, and 3, calculating the daily passenger volume of the future urban rail transit transfer conventional bus. The method can accurately obtain the daily passenger traffic volume of the conventional bus transferred by the rail transit in the coming year of the current city.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an urban public transport system, in particular to a method for predicting a future urban public transport system, and particularly relates to a method for predicting the daily passenger capacity of the future urban public transport system.
Background
With the rapid development of economy and the continuous promotion of urbanization, the utilization rate of public transportation resources is continuously improved. However, the urban public transport enterprises are not complete economic organizations, and the fares are controlled by governments and belong to part of public welfare organization enterprises. Therefore, accurate predictions of future urban traffic are essential to urban public transportation enterprises and governments.
In each accurate prediction of future urban traffic, the future urban rail transit is transferred to the daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus, which is one of important prediction data, and scientific theory and method, reliable data and passenger flow prediction analysis are used as supports instead of prediction or guess by experience and intuition. Such prediction is an analytical procedure that can be repeatedly continued in order to serve economic decisions for future problems. In order to improve the correctness of the decision, the future related information needs to be obtained through prediction, so that a decision maker can increase the future understanding, and the uncertainty or unknown degree is reduced to the minimum, thereby better maintaining the continuous development of the public transportation enterprise.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for predicting daily passenger traffic of a future urban rail transit transfer conventional bus, which can accurately predict the daily passenger traffic of the future urban rail transit transfer conventional bus.
The solution adopted by the invention to solve the problems is as follows:
the method for predicting the daily passenger capacity of the future urban rail transit for the conventional public transport comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting the current rail transit line length, the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus and the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by rail transit;
step 2, calculating the proportion of the conventional bus to the conventional bus passenger flow in the current rail transit transfer, as shown in the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Nithe current ith urban rail transit is transferred with the proportion of daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus to daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus;
Ytitransferring the daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus for the current ith urban rail transit;
Ybithe daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus in the ith city is calculated;
step 3, calculating the daily passenger traffic of the future urban rail transit for the conventional public transport, as shown in the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
t is the daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by the urban rail transit in the future;
u is the daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the future year of the city and is a set value;
c is the length of the rail transit line in the coming city and is a set value;
Yttransferring daily passenger capacity of conventional buses for the current urban rail transit;
Ybthe daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the current city;
w is the length of the current rail transit line;
v is the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the current conventional public transportation transfer rail transit, and the value range is as follows: v is more than 0 and less than or equal to 1;
and R is the transfer preferential amount between the current urban rail transit and the conventional public transit.
In the above scheme, the calculation formula of the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the current conventional bus transfer rail transit is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Sithe length of the current ith urban normal track traffic line.
The working principle of the method is as follows:
the elasticity is that the percentage of the change of one variable corresponds to the percentage of the change of the other variable to reflect the sensitivity of the change between the variables, and meanwhile, the elasticity coefficient reflects the adaptation degree of the traffic passenger flow and the urban economy to a certain degree, thereby providing a basis for the city to formulate the subsequent public transportation transfer policy.
In an urban traffic system, based on the concept of elasticity, the method considers that the length of an urban rail transit line can reflect the development of urban economy, assumes that a linear relation exists between the proportion of the passenger flow volume of the conventional public transit to the rail transit and the length of the rail transit line, assumes that a certain relation exists between the preferential limit of the conventional public transit for rail transit and the hundred kilometer coefficient of the conventional public transit for rail transit, and provides a method for predicting the daily passenger flow volume of the urban rail transit for rail transit in the future. The specific principle is as follows: step 1, relevant urban traffic data with similar economic development are collected to obtain the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the conventional public transportation transfer rail traffic. And 2, on the basis of assuming that a linear relation exists between the passenger flow volume ratio of the conventional buses to the rail transit and the length of the rail transit line, calculating the proportion of the conventional buses to the conventional buses in the related urban rail transit, and further calculating the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the conventional buses to the rail transit. And 3, on the basis of assuming that a certain relation exists between the conventional public transportation preferential amount for rail transit transfer and the conventional public transportation hundred kilometers coefficient for rail transit transfer, taking the daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transportation in the city in the future and the length of the rail transit line as input data, and obtaining the daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transportation in the current city in the future very accurately by utilizing the elastic relation between the conventional public transportation preferential amount for rail transit transfer and the conventional public transportation hundred kilometers coefficient for rail transit transfer.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the economic subsidy of the special bus for rail transit transfer with the method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a flow chart of predicting daily passenger traffic of a conventional bus based on an ARIMA model.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of an embodiment of the method for predicting daily passenger traffic of a future urban rail transit to transfer a conventional bus.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the invention is provided in conjunction with the appended drawings:
as shown in fig. 1, the method for predicting the economic subsidy special for the rail transit transfer conventional public transportation is based on traffic multi-source data, and comprises the steps of collecting and researching data such as urban conventional public transportation passenger flow, conventional bus line length, rail transit passenger flow and the like for correlation analysis; according to the correlation analysis result, an algorithm is selected and the conventional bus passenger flow of the researched city is subjected to prediction analysis; collecting data such as conventional public transportation and conventional public transportation passenger flow volume of related cities, and carrying out prediction analysis on the passenger flow volume of the conventional public transportation for researching urban rail transportation in the future; according to the historical card swiping payment proportion of the urban public transport enterprise, forecasting analysis is carried out on the card swiping payment proportion of the urban public transport enterprise researched in the future; and establishing a subsidy calculation model.
The method comprises the following steps: and preparing data required by analyzing the correlation coefficient matrix, wherein the data comprises conventional bus line length, rail transit line length, motor vehicle owned vehicles, conventional bus station number, rail transit daily passenger capacity and conventional bus daily passenger capacity (source research city traffic annual report). And then inputting the data into a correlation coefficient matrix analysis model to obtain the influence strength of each factor on the conventional bus passenger flow.
Step two: according to the correlation analysis result, an ARIMA model is adopted to obtain the prediction result of the daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the research city, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
1) firstly, stability inspection is carried out on an original sequence (conventional public transport daily passenger volume historical data), and if the sequence is not stable, d-order differential transformation or other transformation (natural logarithm differential transformation is more common on a time sequence) is carried out on the sequence to ensure that the sequence meets stability conditions. If the data is stationary time series data, then d is 0, then it can be simplified to the ARMA model, and the expression is as follows:
wherein: y istIs time series data; c0Is a constant; p is the coefficient of the autoregressive term; q is the coefficient of the moving average term; ε is the mean 0 and the variance σ2White noise sequence of (1).
2) Analyzing the characteristics of the original sequence or the transformed sequence, particularly analyzing the autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function of the sequences to analyze whether the sequences contain seasonal variation;
3) estimating parameters of the model, judging whether the model is stable according to the reciprocal of the lag polynomial root, and judging the fitting effect and the rationality of the model;
4) carrying out diagnosis and inspection on the model residual error, mainly inspecting whether a residual error sequence of the model estimation result meets the randomness requirement;
5) confirming the form of the model, selecting a proper, simple and effective model, and predicting by using the established model.
Step three, namely the embodiment of the invention, the method for predicting the future urban rail transit transfer conventional bus daily passenger traffic volume comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting the current rail transit line length, the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus and the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by rail transit;
step 2, calculating the proportion of the conventional bus to the conventional bus passenger flow in the current rail transit transfer, as shown in the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Nithe current ith urban rail transit is transferred with the proportion of daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus to daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus;
Ytitransferring the daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus for the current ith urban rail transit;
Ybithe daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus in the ith city is obtained.
Step 3, calculating the daily passenger traffic of the future urban rail transit for the conventional public transport, as shown in the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
t is the daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by the urban rail transit in the future;
u is the daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the future year of the future city, is a set value and is generally set according to the development plan of the future city;
c is the length of the rail transit line in the coming year of the future city, is a set value, and is generally set according to the development planning of the future city;
Yttransferring daily passenger capacity of conventional buses for the current urban rail transit;
Ybthe daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the current city;
w is the length of the current rail transit line;
v is the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the current conventional public transportation transfer rail transit, and the value range is as follows: v is more than 0 and less than or equal to 1;
and R is the transfer preferential amount between the current urban rail transit and the conventional public transit.
The average coefficient V per hundred kilometers of the current conventional public transportation transfer rail transit can be set, and the value range is as follows: v is more than 0 and less than or equal to 1; the more trend is to 0, the smaller the stimulation effect of the rail transit mileage on the ratio of the daily passenger traffic volume of the conventional bus transferred by the rail transit to the daily passenger traffic volume of the conventional bus is. The more trend is 1, the larger the stimulation effect of the rail transit mileage on the ratio of daily passenger traffic volume of the conventional bus transferred by the rail transit to daily passenger traffic volume of the conventional bus is.
The average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the current conventional public transportation transfer rail transit can also be obtained by calculation, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Sithe length of the current ith urban normal track traffic line.
Step four: according to the historical card swiping payment proportion of the urban public transport enterprises, predictive analysis is carried out on the card swiping payment proportion in the future year through power function regression.
Step five: the special economic subsidy for researching the rail transit transfer routine public transportation in the coming year of the city is obtained according to the daily passenger capacity of the rail transit transfer routine public transportation in the coming year of the city and the card swiping proportion of the public transportation enterprises in the future year of the city, and is shown as the following formula:
F＝T*K*M
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
f is a special economic subsidy for public transport enterprises in the next year of the research city;
k is the amount of each-time financial subsidy for researching the conventional bus for urban rail transit transfer;
m is the card swiping proportion of public transport enterprises in the future of the research city.
The principle of the method for predicting the special economic subsidy of the conventional bus in rail transit transfer is as follows:
in an urban traffic system, based on the concept of elasticity, the method considers that the length of an urban rail transit line can reflect the urban economic development, assumes that a linear relation exists between the proportion of the passenger flow volume of the conventional public transit to the rail transit and the length of the rail transit line, assumes that a certain relation exists between the preferential limit of the conventional public transit for rail transit and the hundred kilometer coefficient of the conventional public transit for rail transit, and provides a method for predicting the daily passenger flow volume of the future urban rail transit for rail transit. Meanwhile, based on the research on the proportion data of the urban common people who swipe cards to the whole population and the amount of each person's financial subsidy given by the government to the rail transit transfer conventional public transit, the amount of the public intersection group daily subsidy given by the government to the rail transit transfer conventional public transit common people transfer behavior can be calculated.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention in any way, but any modifications or equivalent variations made according to the technical spirit of the present invention are within the scope of the present invention as claimed.
Claims (2)
1. The method for predicting the daily passenger traffic volume of the future urban rail transit for the conventional public transport is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, collecting the current rail transit line length, the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus and the current daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by rail transit;
step 2, calculating the proportion of the conventional bus to the conventional bus passenger flow in the current rail transit transfer, as shown in the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Nithe current ith urban rail transit is transferred with the proportion of daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus to daily passenger traffic of the conventional bus;
Ytitransferring the daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus for the current ith urban rail transit;
Ybithe daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus in the ith city is calculated;
step 3, calculating the daily passenger traffic of the future urban rail transit for the conventional public transport, as shown in the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
t is the daily passenger capacity of the conventional bus transferred by the urban rail transit in the future;
u is the daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the future year of the city and is a set value;
c is the length of the rail transit line in the coming city and is a set value;
Yttransferring daily passenger capacity of conventional buses for the current urban rail transit;
Ybthe daily passenger capacity of the conventional public transport in the current city;
w is the length of the current rail transit line;
v is the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the current conventional public transportation transfer rail transit, and the value range is as follows: v is more than 0 and less than or equal to 1;
and R is the transfer preferential amount between the current urban rail transit and the conventional public transit.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein: the calculation formula of the average coefficient per hundred kilometers of the current conventional public transportation transfer rail transit is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Sithe length of the current ith urban normal track traffic line.
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Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102024206A (en) * | 2010-12-20 | 2011-04-20 | 江苏省交通科学研究院股份有限公司 | Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow |
| CN104217250A (en) * | 2014-08-07 | 2014-12-17 | 北京市交通信息中心 | Rail transit new line opening passenger flow prediction method based on historical data |
| CN108197739A (en) * | 2017-12-29 | 2018-06-22 | 中车工业研究院有限公司 | A kind of urban track traffic ridership Forecasting Methodology |
| CN110956328A (en) * | 2019-11-30 | 2020-04-03 | 天津市市政工程设计研究院 | Large passenger flow influence rail transit station bus connection scale prediction method |
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Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102024206A (en) * | 2010-12-20 | 2011-04-20 | 江苏省交通科学研究院股份有限公司 | Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow |
| CN104217250A (en) * | 2014-08-07 | 2014-12-17 | 北京市交通信息中心 | Rail transit new line opening passenger flow prediction method based on historical data |
| CN108197739A (en) * | 2017-12-29 | 2018-06-22 | 中车工业研究院有限公司 | A kind of urban track traffic ridership Forecasting Methodology |
| CN110956328A (en) * | 2019-11-30 | 2020-04-03 | 天津市市政工程设计研究院 | Large passenger flow influence rail transit station bus connection scale prediction method |
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| 李珍: "公共交通换乘客流量预测方法研究", 《科技创新与应用》 * |
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