CN112417374B - Prediction method and device for coal wall caving of large mining height fully-mechanized mining face - Google Patents
Prediction method and device for coal wall caving of large mining height fully-mechanized mining face Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a prediction method and a prediction device for coal wall caving of a large mining height fully-mechanized mining face, relates to the technical field of coal mine industry mining, can enable the prediction process of the coal wall caving of the large mining height working face to be more accurate, reliable and practical, can realize early warning prediction of the coal wall of the large mining height working face, and guarantees safe and efficient stoping of the large mining height working face. The method comprises the following steps: determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistivity increment value in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving; creating an index scoring model by using the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity; calculating a comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model; and outputting a prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized coal mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving. The method is suitable for predicting the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized coal mining face with large mining height.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of coal mine industry exploitation, in particular to a prediction method and a prediction device for coal wall caving of a large-mining-height fully-mechanized coal face.
Background
With the rapid development of mining technology and equipment, the domestic large mining height mining technology is mature, the large mining height working face is continuously increased, and the working face mining height is continuously broken through. At present, the height of the large-mining-height coal in the Shendong mining area of China reaches 8.5m, and the coal cutting height is advanced to 9.0m or more. The coal wall caving is a key factor for restricting the safe and high-yield efficient mining of the large mining height working face, and the phenomenon of the coal wall caving of the large mining height working face not only restricts the mining efficiency of the working face, but also seriously threatens the life safety of underground workers.
At present, an effective prediction method is not provided for domestic related scientific researchers aiming at the prediction of coal wall caving of large mining height working face. Therefore, in order to ensure the safe and efficient stoping of the large mining height working face, it is necessary to develop an accurate, reliable and practical large mining height working face coal wall caving prediction method, so as to realize the early warning prediction of the large mining height working face coal wall and ensure the safe and efficient stoping of the large mining height working face.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a prediction method and a prediction device for coal wall caving of a large mining height fully-mechanized mining face, which can enable the prediction process of the coal wall caving of the large mining height working face to be more accurate, reliable and practical, and can realize early warning prediction of the coal wall of the large mining height working face, so that safe and efficient stoping of the large mining height working face is ensured.
According to one aspect of the application, a method for predicting a coal wall caving of a fully mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height is provided, and the method comprises the following steps:
determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistivity increment value in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
creating an index scoring model by using the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity;
calculating a comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model;
and outputting a prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized coal mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving.
Preferably, the determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistance-increasing rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving specifically comprises:
calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter according to the value of the coal body fracture parameter in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
and determining the bracket load resistance-increasing rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving based on a relation curve of the bracket load and time.
Preferably, the coal body fracture parameters include: horizontal displacement of the coal body, vertical displacement of the coal body, fracture density, fracture spacing, fracture width and fracture occurrence;
calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter according to the coal body fracture parameter value in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving, and specifically comprising the following steps:
based on a preset increment value calculation method and a coal body fracture parameter value, respectively calculating a coal body horizontal displacement increment value, a coal body vertical displacement increment value, a fracture density increment value, a fracture spacing increment value, a fracture width increment value and a fracture yield increment value in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall caving.
Preferably, the determining the resistance increasing rate of the bracket load in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving based on the relation curve of the bracket load and the time specifically includes:
extracting the bracket load in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall lasting according to the relation curve of the bracket load and time;
and calculating the bracket load resistance-increasing rate corresponding to each coal wall caving in the preset time period based on a preset increment value calculation method and the bracket load.
Preferably, the creating an index scoring model by using the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increase resistance rate specifically comprises:
calculating a coal body fracture parameter increment average value and a bracket load resistance increasing rate average value corresponding to each coal wall caving in the preset time period;
and determining the coal body fracture parameter increment average value and the bracket load resistance increasing average value as index early warning values, and configuring corresponding scoring rules based on the index early warning values.
Preferably, the calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall panel according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model specifically includes:
calculating the increment value or the resistivity of each early warning index in the early warning monitoring period, wherein the early warning indexes comprise coal body fracture parameters and bracket loads;
comparing the increment value or the increment resistivity with the corresponding index early warning value respectively, and determining the corresponding assessment score of each early warning index based on the scoring rule;
and calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the prediction index calculation formula and the evaluation value.
Preferably, the outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving specifically includes:
comparing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving with a preset index threshold;
if the coal wall caving comprehensive prediction index is larger than or equal to the preset index threshold, outputting early warning prompt information;
if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is smaller than the preset index threshold, outputting prompt information of normal prediction so as to predict the next preset time period.
According to another aspect of the present application, there is provided a prediction apparatus for a coal wall caving of a fully mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height, the apparatus comprising:
the determining module is used for determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistance increment rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
the creation module is used for creating an index scoring model by utilizing the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increase resistivity;
the calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model;
and the output module is used for outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized mining face with large mining height according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving.
Preferably, the determining module specifically includes:
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter according to the value of the coal body fracture parameter in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
the determining unit is used for determining the bracket load resistance-increasing rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving based on the relation curve of the bracket load and time.
Preferably, the coal body fracture parameters include: horizontal displacement of the coal body, vertical displacement of the coal body, fracture density, fracture spacing, fracture width and fracture occurrence;
the first computing unit is specifically configured to:
based on a preset increment value calculation method and a coal body fracture parameter value, respectively calculating a coal body horizontal displacement increment value, a coal body vertical displacement increment value, a fracture density increment value, a fracture spacing increment value, a fracture width increment value and a fracture yield increment value in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall caving.
Preferably, the determining unit is specifically configured to:
extracting the bracket load in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall lasting according to the relation curve of the bracket load and time;
and calculating the bracket load resistance-increasing rate corresponding to each coal wall caving in the preset time period based on a preset increment value calculation method and the bracket load.
Preferably, the creating module specifically includes:
the second calculation unit is used for calculating a coal body fracture parameter increment average value and a bracket load resistance increasing rate average value corresponding to each coal wall caving in the preset time period;
the configuration unit is used for determining the coal body fracture parameter increment average value and the bracket load resistance increase average value as index early warning values and configuring corresponding scoring rules based on the index early warning values.
Preferably, the computing module specifically includes:
the third calculation unit is used for calculating the increment value or the increment resistivity of each early warning index in the early warning monitoring period, wherein the early warning indexes comprise coal body fracture parameters and bracket loads;
the first comparison unit is used for comparing the increment value or the increment resistivity with the corresponding index early warning value respectively and determining the assessment score corresponding to each early warning index based on the scoring rule;
and the fourth calculation unit is used for calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the prediction index calculation formula and the evaluation value.
Preferably, the output module specifically includes:
the second comparison unit is used for comparing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving with a preset index threshold;
the output unit is used for outputting early warning prompt information if the coal wall caving comprehensive prediction index is judged to be greater than or equal to the preset index threshold value;
and the output unit is also used for outputting prompt information of normal prediction if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is smaller than the preset index threshold value so as to predict the next preset time period.
By means of the technical scheme, compared with the existing prediction mode of the large-mining-height fully-mechanized coal face coal wall caving, the prediction method of the large-mining-height fully-mechanized coal face coal wall caving provided by the application can determine external appearance increment values of coal body fracture parameters before coal wall caving, including coal wall caving coal body fracture parameter increment values and bracket load increment resistivity by collecting and collecting coal body fracture development characteristics in the whole process of the coal wall caving; then, an index scoring model can be established by utilizing the coal wall caving coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity, including the determination of an index early warning value, and the establishment of a coal wall caving score evaluation rule; and then, calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the early warning index values in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model, and finally, determining and outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully-mechanized coal mining face by utilizing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving. In this application, through the prediction process standardization with the face coal wall ledge of fully mechanized coal mining of great mining height, can realize the accuracy, the real-time early warning to the face coal wall ledge, and then can guarantee the safe high-efficient stoping of great mining height face.
The foregoing description is merely an overview of the technical solutions of the present application, and may be implemented according to the content of the specification in order to make the technical means of the present application more clearly understood, and in order to make the above and other objects, features and advantages of the present application more clearly understood, the following detailed description of the present application will be given.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the application and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the application and together with the description serve to explain the application and do not constitute an undue limitation to the present application. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 shows a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting a coal wall caving of a fully mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height, which is provided by an embodiment of the application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of another method for predicting the coal wall caving of a fully mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height according to an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 3 shows a schematic diagram of a prediction principle of a large mining height fully-mechanized mining face coal wall caving provided in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a load versus time curve of a hydraulic support of a fully mechanized coal mining face during coal wall caving provided by an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 5 shows an example schematic diagram of the increase in the resistance of the bracket load within Δt time intervals before T minutes of the mth coal wall caving provided in the embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 6 shows a schematic structural diagram of a prediction apparatus for coal wall caving on a fully mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 7 shows a schematic structural diagram of another prediction apparatus for coal wall caving on a fully mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The present application will be described in detail hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with embodiments. It should be noted that, without conflict, the embodiments and features of the embodiments in the present application may be combined with each other.
The embodiment provides a prediction method for coal wall caving of a large mining height fully-mechanized mining face, as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
101. and determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistivity in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving.
For the embodiment, a plurality of coal wall caving areas in a preset time period in a large mining height working face mining process can be selected, a three-dimensional laser scanner arranged above a support top beam is adopted to scan and identify coal wall surface cracks, coal body crack parameters in the whole process of coal wall caving are extracted, and the obtained coal body crack parameter increment value and support load resistance increment rate in the preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving are further calculated.
102. And creating an index scoring model by using the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increase resistivity.
For the embodiment, the purpose of creating the index scoring model is to create a set of coal wall caving prediction index scoring standard so as to realize accurate prediction of the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized mining face with large mining height based on the prediction index scoring standard. Specifically, the early warning values of all indexes can be obtained by calculating the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increase resistance in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving, and corresponding scoring rules are respectively established for all the early warning values of all the indexes according to the influence weights of all the early warning indexes on the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized mining face with large mining height.
103. And calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the early warning index values in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model.
The early warning monitoring period corresponds to a period of time for which the prediction of the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized mining face with the large mining height is required, the early warning index value corresponds to real-time acquisition in the early warning monitoring period, and the obtained coal wall caving coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistance increment rate are calculated.
104. And outputting a prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized coal mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving.
For the embodiment, after the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is obtained through calculation, the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is compared with a preset index threshold value, so that a prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized mining face with the large caving height is determined, wherein the preset index threshold value can be set according to an actual application scene, and in the embodiment, the preset index threshold value is preferably set to be 0.6.
Compared with the current prediction mode aiming at the large mining height working face coal wall caving, the prediction method provided by the embodiment of the application can determine the external appearance increment value of the coal body fracture parameter before the coal wall caving by collecting and collecting the coal body fracture development characteristics in the whole process of the coal wall caving, including the coal body fracture parameter increment value of the coal wall caving and the bracket load increase resistivity; then, an index scoring model can be established by utilizing the coal wall caving coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity, including the determination of an index early warning value, and the establishment of a coal wall caving score evaluation rule; and then, calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the early warning index values in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model, and finally, determining and outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully-mechanized coal mining face by utilizing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving. In this application, through the prediction process standardization with the face coal wall ledge of fully mechanized coal mining of great mining height, can realize the accuracy, the real-time early warning to the face coal wall ledge, and then can guarantee the safe high-efficient stoping of great mining height face.
Further, as a refinement and expansion of the specific implementation of the foregoing embodiment, in order to illustrate the specific implementation process of the foregoing embodiment, this embodiment provides another prediction method for a coal wall caving of a fully-mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height, as shown in fig. 2, the method includes:
201. and calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter of the coal wall caving according to the value of the coal body fracture parameter in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving.
Wherein, the coal body fracture parameters include: horizontal displacement S of coal body h Vertical displacement S of coal body v Fracture density A fd Slit spacing L, slit width H, slit occurrence θ.
For the present embodiment, in a specific application scenario, the embodiment step 201 may specifically include: based on a preset increment value calculation method and a coal body fracture parameter value, respectively calculating a coal body horizontal displacement increment value, a coal body vertical displacement increment value, a fracture density increment value, a fracture spacing increment value, a fracture width increment value and a fracture yield increment value in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall caving.
The preset increment value calculating method can be as follows: Δa= (a (t+△t) -A t ) And/[ delta ] T, and [ delta ] A represents the increment value of the fracture parameter of the coal body or the increment resistivity of the bracket load in the delta T interval time before T minutes in a preset time period.
Specifically, the coal body fracture parameters before T minutes of the mth (m < n) time coal wall caving in the monitoring time period are respectively S hmt 、S vmt 、A fdmt 、L mt 、H mt 、θ mt The coal body fracture parameters after delta t interval time are S respectively hm(t+△t) 、S vm(t+△t) 、A fdm(t+△t) 、L m(t+△t) 、H m(t+△t) 、θ m(t+△t) The increment value of the coal body fracture parameter before the occurrence of the mth coal wall caving in the delta t interval time can be respectively as follows:
△S hm ＝(S hm(t+△t) -S hmt )/△t
△S vm ＝(S vm(t+△t) -S vmt )/△t
△A fdmt ＝(A fdm(t+△t) -A fdmt )/△t
△L mt ＝(L m(t+△t) -L mt )/△t
△H mt ＝(H m(t+△t) -H mt )/△t
△θ mt ＝(θ m(t+△t) -θ mt )/△t
correspondingly, the increment value DeltaS of the coal body fracture parameter in the delta T interval time before the T minutes of the wall caving of the coal wall for n times in the monitoring time period can be extracted h1 、2....n、△S v1 、2....n、△Afd1、2...n、△L 1 、2...n、△H 1 、2...n、△ θ1 N (n is the number of lasting in the monitoring period).
202. And determining the bracket load resistance-increasing rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving based on a relation curve of the bracket load and time.
For the present embodiment, in a specific application scenario, the embodiment step 202 may specifically include: extracting the bracket load in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall lasting according to the relation curve of the bracket load and time; based on a preset increment value calculation method and the bracket load, the bracket load resistance-increasing rate corresponding to each coal wall caving in a preset time period is calculated.
In a specific application scenario, the time t is taken as the abscissa based on the pressure sensor arranged on the stand column of the bracket, and the load P of the bracket is taken as the load P of the bracket i And acquiring a relation curve of the load and time of the hydraulic support of the fully mechanized mining face in the whole coal wall caving process shown in fig. 4 for a period of time as an ordinate, and further obtaining the resistance-increasing characteristic of the hydraulic support of the working face in the early stage of the coal wall caving by analyzing the relation curve. Specifically, the bracket load resistance increase rate delta P in delta T interval time before T minutes of each coal wall caving in the monitoring time period can be extracted 1、2、...n 。
As shown in FIG. 5, the load of the bracket before T minutes of the m (m < n) th coal wall caving in the monitoring time period is set as P tm The bracket load after the delta t interval time is P (t+△t)m The bracket load resistance increase rate delta P in delta t interval time can be calculated m ＝(P( t+△t)m -P tm )/△t。
203. And calculating a coal body fracture parameter increment average value and a bracket load resistance increasing rate average value corresponding to each coal wall caving in a preset time period.
In particularThe incremental average value of the coal body fracture parameters corresponding to each coal wall caving can be calculated by using the following formula: deltaS hYJ 、△S vYJ 、△A fdYJ 、△L YJ 、△H YJ 、△θ YJ And mean value of the bracket load increase resistivity: deltaP YJ 。
△S hYJ ＝(△S h1 +△S h2 +△S h3 +.....△S hn )/n
△S vYJ ＝(△S v1 +△S v2 +△S v3 +.....△S vn )/n
△A fdYJ ＝(△A fd1 +△A fd2 +△A fd3 +.....△A fdn )/n
△L YJ ＝(△L 1 +△L 2 +△L 3 +.....△L n )/n
△H YJ ＝(△H 1 +△H 2 +△H 3 +.....△H n )/n
△θ YJ ＝(△θ 1 +△θ 2 +△θ 3 +.....△θ n )/n
△P YJ ＝(△P 1 +△P 2 +△P 3 +.....△P n )/n
204. And determining the coal body fracture parameter increment average value and the bracket load resistance increase average value as index early warning values, and configuring corresponding scoring rules based on the index early warning values.
For the embodiment, in a specific application scenario, the calculated incremental average value of the coal body fracture parameters corresponding to each coal wall caving may be: deltaS hYJ 、△S vYJ 、△A fdYJ 、△L YJ 、△H YJ 、△θ YJ And mean value of the bracket load increase resistivity: deltaP YJ Determining the coal wall caving prediction score as an index early warning value (prediction index threshold), setting a scoring rule corresponding to each index based on each index early warning value according to the influence weight of each index on the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully mechanized mining face, and setting the coal wall caving prediction score according to an empirical coefficientThe criteria are shown in table 1 below:
wherein, deltaP and DeltaS h 、△S v 、△A fd 、△ L 、△ H 、△ θ Respectively corresponding to the increment value or the resistance increment rate of each early warning index in a certain delta t time interval during early warning and monitoring.
Table 1 coal wall caving prediction scoring criteria
205. And calculating the increment value or the resistivity of each early warning index in the early warning monitoring period, wherein the early warning indexes comprise coal body fracture parameters and bracket loads.
For the embodiment, the coal body fracture parameters and the bracket load can be collected in real time during early warning and monitoring, and the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistivity at a certain Δt time interval in the monitoring time can be calculated according to the coal body fracture parameters and the bracket load respectively, and the specific calculation mode can refer to the steps 201 and 202 of the embodiment.
206. And comparing the increment value or the increment resistivity with the corresponding index early warning value respectively, and determining the assessment score corresponding to each early warning index based on the scoring rule.
For this embodiment, referring to the scoring rules shown in table 1, after the increase value of the fracture parameter of the coal body and the increase resistivity of the bracket load in the early warning monitoring period are calculated, the increase value and the increase resistivity of the bracket load can be respectively compared with the corresponding index early warning values to determine the assessment scores corresponding to the early warning indexes. According to the empirical coefficient, the resistance increase rate delta P when the bracket load is increased can be set<△P YJ When the corresponding grading value of the bracket load is 0, and when the delta P is more than or equal to delta P YJ When the support load corresponds to a scoring value of 2; when the increment value delta S of the horizontal displacement of the coal body h <△S hYJ When the horizontal displacement of the coal body corresponds to a scoring value of 0, when DeltaS h ≥△S hYJ When the horizontal displacement of the coal body corresponds to a scoring value of 2; when the vertical displacement increment value DeltaS of the coal body v <△S vYJ When the coal body vertical displacement corresponds to the grading value of0, when DeltaS v ≥△S vYJ When the coal body vertical displacement corresponds to the grading value of 2; when the crack density increases by a value delta A fd <△A fdYJ When the score value corresponding to the crack density is 0, delta A fd ≥△A fdYJ When the fracture density corresponds to the score value of 1; when the crack spacing increment value delta L<△L YJ When the score value corresponding to the gap spacing is 0, and when DeltaL is more than or equal to DeltaL YJ When the gap distance corresponds to a score value of 1; when the crack width delta H<△H YJ When the score value corresponding to the crack width is 0, and when the delta H is more than or equal to delta H YJ When the score value corresponding to the crack width is 1; when the fracture appears delta theta<△θ YJ When the score value corresponding to the fracture occurrence is 0, and when the delta theta is more than or equal to the delta theta YJ When the score value corresponding to the crack width is 1.
207. And calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the prediction index calculation formula and the evaluation score.
The predictive index calculation formula may be:G i a scoring value for the i-th evaluation index increment; g imax The highest scoring value of the i-th evaluation index increment.
For example, if the increment value or the increment resistivity is compared with the corresponding index early warning value respectively, and the assessment score corresponding to each early warning index is determined based on the scoring rule: bracket load G 1 =0, horizontal displacement G of coal body 2 =2, vertical displacement G of coal body 3 Cleft density G =2 4 =0, gap spacing G 5 =1, crack width G 6 =1, slit occurrence G 7 =1, the coal wall caving comprehensive prediction index can be calculated according to the prediction index calculation formula: w= (0+2+2+0+1+1+1)/(2+2+2+1+1+1+1) =0.7.
208. And outputting a prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized coal mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving.
For the present embodiment, in a specific application scenario, the embodiment step 208 may specifically include: comparing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving with a preset index threshold; if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is larger than or equal to a preset index threshold, outputting early warning prompt information of predicting the coal wall caving; if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is smaller than the preset index threshold, outputting prompt information of normal prediction so as to predict the next preset time period.
In a specific application scene, according to an experience coefficient, a preset index threshold value can be set to be 0.6, namely when the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is judged to be greater than or equal to 0.6, early warning prompt information of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully mechanized mining face can be output; if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is less than 0.6, outputting a normal prediction prompt message, and starting the coal wall caving prediction in the next delta t period.
For the embodiment, in a specific application scenario, the prediction process of the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized coal face with a large mining height may be specifically shown as a schematic diagram in fig. 3, the change characteristics of the coal body fracture parameters before the coal wall caving and the resistance increasing characteristics of the hydraulic support of the coal wall caving before the coal wall caving may be extracted first, specifically, the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving within the Δt time interval may be determined according to the coal body horizontal displacement, the coal body vertical displacement, the crack density, the crack spacing, the crack width, the crack shape and the load resistance increasing ratio within a preset time period before the coal wall caving occurs, the increase value of the coal body fracture parameters and the load resistance increasing ratio of the support may be calculated, and then the pre-warning values of each index of the coal wall caving may be determined according to the increase value of the coal body fracture parameters and the load resistance increasing ratio of the support, and the prediction index score standard of the coal wall caving may be determined later in real time period, and the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving may be compared with the preset index threshold may be determined by creating the prediction window of the wall caving, and the prediction result may be outputted.
By the prediction method of the coal wall caving of the large-mining-height fully-mechanized coal mining face, the external appearance increment value of the coal body fracture parameter before the coal wall caving is determined by collecting and collecting the coal body fracture development characteristics in the whole process of the coal wall caving, including the coal body fracture parameter increment value of the coal wall caving and the bracket load increment resistivity; then, an index scoring model can be established by utilizing the coal wall caving coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity, including the determination of an index early warning value, and the establishment of a coal wall caving score evaluation rule; and then, calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the early warning index values in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model, and finally, determining and outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully-mechanized coal mining face by utilizing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving. In this application, through the prediction process standardization with the face coal wall ledge of fully mechanized coal mining of great mining height, can realize the accuracy, the real-time early warning to the face coal wall ledge, and then can guarantee the safe high-efficient stoping of great mining height face.
Further, as a specific embodiment of the method shown in fig. 1 and fig. 2, an embodiment of the present application provides a prediction apparatus for a coal wall caving of a fully-mechanized coal mining face with a large mining height, as shown in fig. 6, where the apparatus includes: a determining module 31, a creating module 32, a calculating module 33, and an outputting module 34.
The determining module 31 is configured to determine a coal body fracture parameter increment value and a bracket load resistivity increment value within a preset time period before occurrence of the coal wall lasting;
the creation module 32 is configured to create an index scoring model using the incremental values of the fracture parameters of the coal body and the incremental resistivity of the stent load;
the calculating module 33 is configured to calculate a comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall panel according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model;
the output module 34 is configured to output a prediction result of the coal wall caving on the fully-mechanized coal mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving.
In a specific application scenario, in order to determine the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter and the bracket load increase resistivity in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall lasting, as shown in fig. 7, the determining module 31 may specifically include: a first calculation unit 311, a determination unit 312;
the first calculating unit 311 is specifically configured to calculate a value of an increase in the coal body fracture parameter according to the value of the coal body fracture parameter in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall lasting;
the determining unit 312 is specifically configured to determine a resistivity increase of the bracket load within a preset time period before occurrence of the coal wall caving based on a relationship curve between the bracket load and time.
Correspondingly, the coal body fracture parameters include: horizontal displacement of the coal body, vertical displacement of the coal body, fracture density, fracture spacing, fracture width and fracture occurrence;
the first computing unit 311 is specifically configured to: based on a preset increment value calculation method and a coal body fracture parameter value, respectively calculating a coal body horizontal displacement increment value, a coal body vertical displacement increment value, a fracture density increment value, a fracture spacing increment value, a fracture width increment value and a fracture yield increment value in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall caving.
In a specific application scenario, the determining unit 312 is specifically configured to extract, according to a relationship curve between a bracket load and time, the bracket load within a preset time period before each occurrence of a coal wall caving; based on a preset increment value calculation method and the bracket load, the bracket load resistance-increasing rate corresponding to each coal wall caving in a preset time period is calculated.
Accordingly, as shown in fig. 7, the creation module 32 may specifically include: a second calculation unit 321, a configuration unit 322;
the second calculating unit 321 is specifically configured to calculate an incremental average value of the coal body fracture parameters and an average value of the bracket load resistance increase rate corresponding to each coal wall caving in a preset time period;
the configuration unit 322 is specifically configured to determine the average value of the increment of the fracture parameter of the coal body and the average value of the increasing resistivity of the bracket load as the index early-warning value, and configure the corresponding scoring rule based on the index early-warning value.
In a specific application scenario, in order to calculate the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall panel, as shown in fig. 7, the calculating module 33 may specifically include: a third calculation unit 331, a first comparison unit 332, a fourth calculation unit 333;
the third calculation unit 331 is configured to calculate an increment value or an increment resistivity of each early warning indicator in the early warning monitoring period, where the early warning indicator includes a coal body fracture parameter and a bracket load;
the first comparing unit 332 is configured to compare the increment value or the increment resistivity with the corresponding index early-warning values, and determine the assessment score corresponding to each early-warning index based on the scoring rule;
the fourth calculating unit 333 may be configured to calculate a coal wall caving comprehensive prediction index according to the prediction index calculation formula and the evaluation score.
Accordingly, as shown in fig. 7, the output module 34 may specifically include: a second comparing unit 341, an output unit 342;
the second comparison unit 341 is configured to compare the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall lasting with a preset index threshold;
the output unit 342 is configured to output early warning prompt information if it is determined that the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall panel is greater than or equal to the preset index threshold;
the output unit 342 may be further configured to output a prompt message indicating that the prediction is normal if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall panel is less than the preset index threshold, so as to predict the next preset time period.
It should be noted that, other corresponding descriptions of the functional units related to the prediction device for the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized coal mining face provided in this embodiment may refer to corresponding descriptions in fig. 1 to 2, and are not repeated here.
From the above description of the embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the present application may be implemented by means of software plus necessary general hardware platforms, or may be implemented by hardware. By applying the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the method can determine the external appearance increment value of the coal body fracture parameter before the coal wall caving, including the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter of the coal wall caving and the bracket load increment resistivity by collecting and collecting the coal body fracture development characteristics in the whole process of the coal wall caving; then, an index scoring model can be established by utilizing the coal wall caving coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity, including the determination of an index early warning value, and the establishment of a coal wall caving score evaluation rule; and then, calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the early warning index values in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model, and finally, determining and outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully-mechanized coal mining face by utilizing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving. In this application, through the prediction process standardization with the face coal wall ledge of fully mechanized coal mining of great mining height, can realize the accuracy, the real-time early warning to the face coal wall ledge, and then can guarantee the safe high-efficient stoping of great mining height face.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the drawings are merely schematic illustrations of one preferred implementation scenario, and that the modules or flows in the drawings are not necessarily required to practice the present application. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that modules in an apparatus in an implementation scenario may be distributed in an apparatus in an implementation scenario according to an implementation scenario description, or that corresponding changes may be located in one or more apparatuses different from the implementation scenario. The modules of the implementation scenario may be combined into one module, or may be further split into a plurality of sub-modules.
The foregoing application serial numbers are merely for description, and do not represent advantages or disadvantages of the implementation scenario. The foregoing disclosure is merely a few specific implementations of the present application, but the present application is not limited thereto and any variations that can be considered by a person skilled in the art shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
Claims (9)
1. The prediction method of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully-mechanized mining face is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistivity increment value in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
creating an index scoring model by using the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increment resistivity;
calculating a comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model;
outputting a prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully mechanized mining face with large mining height according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving;
the method for calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the early warning index values in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating the increment value or the resistivity of each early warning index in the early warning monitoring period, wherein the early warning indexes comprise coal body fracture parameters and bracket loads;
comparing the increment value or the increment resistivity with the corresponding early warning index value respectively, and determining the corresponding assessment score of each early warning index based on the score assessment rule;
and calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to the prediction index calculation formula and the evaluation value.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistivity increment within a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving specifically comprises:
calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter according to the value of the coal body fracture parameter in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
and determining the bracket load resistance-increasing rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving based on a relation curve of the bracket load and time.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the coal body fracture parameters comprise: horizontal displacement of the coal body, vertical displacement of the coal body, fracture density, fracture spacing, fracture width and fracture occurrence;
calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter according to the coal body fracture parameter value in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving, and specifically comprising the following steps:
based on a preset increment value calculation method and a coal body fracture parameter value, respectively calculating a coal body horizontal displacement increment value, a coal body vertical displacement increment value, a fracture density increment value, a fracture spacing increment value, a fracture width increment value and a fracture yield increment value in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall caving.
4. The method according to claim 2, wherein the determining the bracket load resistance increase rate within a preset time period before occurrence of the coal wall caving based on the bracket load versus time curve specifically comprises:
extracting the bracket load in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall lasting according to the relation curve of the bracket load and time;
and calculating the bracket load resistance-increasing rate corresponding to each coal wall caving in the preset time period based on a preset increment value calculation method and the bracket load.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the creating an index scoring model using the coal body fracture parameter delta values and the stent load delta resistivity, specifically comprises:
calculating a coal body fracture parameter increment average value and a bracket load resistance increasing rate average value corresponding to each coal wall caving in the preset time period;
and determining the coal body fracture parameter increment average value and the bracket load resistance increasing average value as index early warning values, and configuring corresponding scoring rules based on the index early warning values.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the large mining height fully-mechanized mining face according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving specifically comprises:
comparing the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving with a preset index threshold;
if the coal wall caving comprehensive prediction index is larger than or equal to the preset index threshold, outputting early warning prompt information;
if the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving is smaller than the preset index threshold, outputting prompt information of normal prediction so as to predict the next preset time period.
7. The utility model provides a predicting device of large mining height comprehensive face coal wall ledge which characterized in that includes:
the determining module is used for determining the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load resistance increment rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
the creation module is used for creating an index scoring model by utilizing the coal body fracture parameter increment value and the bracket load increase resistivity;
the calculation module is used for calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model; according to each early warning index value in the early warning monitoring period and the score evaluation rule in the index scoring model, calculating the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating the increment value or the resistivity of each early warning index in the early warning monitoring period, wherein the early warning indexes comprise coal body fracture parameters and bracket loads;
comparing the increment value or the increment resistivity with the corresponding early warning index value respectively, and determining the corresponding assessment score of each early warning index based on the score assessment rule;
calculating a comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving according to a prediction index calculation formula and the evaluation value;
and the output module is used for outputting the prediction result of the coal wall caving of the fully-mechanized mining face with large mining height according to the comprehensive prediction index of the coal wall caving.
8. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the determining module specifically comprises:
the first calculation unit is used for calculating the increment value of the coal body fracture parameter according to the value of the coal body fracture parameter in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving;
the determining unit is used for determining the bracket load resistance-increasing rate in a preset time period before the occurrence of the coal wall caving based on the relation curve of the bracket load and time.
9. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the coal body fracture parameters comprise: horizontal displacement of the coal body, vertical displacement of the coal body, fracture density, fracture spacing, fracture width and fracture occurrence;
the first calculation unit is specifically configured to calculate a coal body horizontal displacement increment value, a coal body vertical displacement increment value, a fracture density increment value, a fracture space increment value, a fracture width increment value, and a fracture shape increment value in a preset time period before each occurrence of the coal wall lasting based on a preset increment value calculation method and a coal body fracture parameter value.
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