CN112381340A - Safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for large chemical device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device, belonging to the technical field of chemical safety, comprising the following steps: s1, leading in the accident cause and the accident evolution process of the existing large-scale chemical plant by a mechanism; s2, establishing a safety quantitative evaluation index system of the large-scale chemical enterprise, and developing a quantitative evaluation method; and S3, developing a model algorithm by taking the full-element index system as an analysis target and a decision target and taking full-dimensional accident evolution mechanism data under different working conditions as analysis content. According to the invention, through the large-scale chemical device safety evaluation element library, the tool library and the risk evaluation method library of accident causes, a complete index system and an evaluation method for the safety quantitative evaluation of the large-scale chemical device can be conveniently established; and completing accident risk identification of scene construction by the scene construction model and digital simulation operation, mechanism introduction and rationality verification.
Description
Technical Field
The embodiment of the invention relates to the technical field of chemical safety, in particular to a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device.
Background
The overall scale of large chemical enterprises in China is in the international leading position, but the technical means of safety assessment generally depend on foreign methods, the methods are not fused with the requirements of laws and regulations in China, qualitative analysis is mainly used, quantitative analysis is less, the subjectivity of the assessment process is stronger, the assessment method is single, full-dimensional full-factor quantitative assessment is not achieved, the information intelligent technology is not sufficiently applied, and the loopholes and defects existing in enterprise safety production are difficult to objectively reflect. With the progress of information technology, the intelligent and big data technology is applied to device security management, so that the enterprise security management level is improved, and the method is an important way for effectively improving the enterprise security management efficiency and preventing accidents.
The existing chemical safety risk assessment technology is mainly used by providing a single risk assessment tool or software for professional personnel, users manually input data in enterprise production into a plurality of single tools to generate assessment results, and then manually export each assessment result, and the method has the following defects:
(1) the data used for evaluation is static basic data and real-time operation data of a non-production field;
(2) a user needs to do a large amount of manual operation and repeated operation aiming at input parameters and output parameters;
(3) data among a plurality of single evaluation tools cannot be communicated and form a shared and mutual use state, and intelligent evaluation cannot be completed;
(4) a single assessment tool cannot achieve assessment of all elements, and can only achieve assessment of a single element or a local class of elements.
The existing chemical enterprise safety management element evaluation technology is mainly based on elements and evaluation detailed rules established according to international standards ISO45001 and the like, industry standards AQ/T3042 and the like, domestic standard system safety standardization systems and the like, and the technical method mainly comprises an expert analysis method and a statistical analysis method; the method leads to more dependence standards for element selection, and element evaluation depends on more expert experiences instead of accident cause mechanisms and accident evolution process mechanisms, so that the accuracy and the reasonability of an evaluation system and evaluation indexes under different accident conditions cannot be verified.
Based on the above, the invention designs an intelligent safety quantitative evaluation method for large-scale chemical devices, so as to solve the problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device, which aims to solve the technical problems in the background technology.
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device. In one possible embodiment, the method comprises the following steps:
s1, leading in the accident cause and the accident evolution process of the existing large-scale chemical plant by a mechanism;
s2, establishing a safety quantitative evaluation index system of the large-scale chemical enterprise, and developing a quantitative evaluation method;
s3, developing a model algorithm by taking a full-element index system as an analysis target and a decision target and taking full-dimensional accident evolution mechanism data under different working conditions as analysis content;
and S4, carrying out intelligent platform management on the development application.
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device. In a possible solution, the mechanism importing in S1 includes the following steps:
importing and modeling device content by adopting a basic engine; accessing a dynamic risk evaluation process of a BP neural network, Apriori and FP-growth algorithm; and (3) completing scene construction model and digital simulation calculation operation of accident cause and evolution process mechanism of the large-scale chemical plant, and verifying effective accident mechanism and triggering condition under different accident conditions.
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device. In one possible approach, the development of the quantitative assessment method in S2 includes the following steps:
developing core elements, evaluation targets and evaluation indexes of quantitative evaluation from full dimension, and accessing an index library management system to a large-scale chemical enterprise safety quantitative evaluation index system; completing tool and method development of each type of elements and indexes, and accessing a safety quantitative evaluation method library; and completing the fusion of each evaluation tool and each evaluation method, and issuing uniform API and service.
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device. In one possible approach, the full dimensions include human dimensions, machine dimensions, object dimensions, ring dimensions, and tube dimensions.
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device. In one possible approach, the development of the modeling algorithm in S3 includes the following steps:
a. extracting, converting, analyzing and modeling data by using a multi-element heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology, and extracting keyword data for safety quantitative evaluation to realize relation mining and evaluation;
b. typical fault mode diagnosis, abnormal working condition deviation reason diagnosis and safety corresponding OEAA closed loop of the whole process of process device operation are completed through a multivariate heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology, and a process device stability monitoring and stability prediction algorithm model is developed;
c. the RCM technology fusion of real-time state monitoring and fault diagnosis is completed through a multi-element heterogeneous mass dynamic data mining analysis technology, and a device full life cycle reliability diagnosis model and an algorithm model of real-time dynamic data are developed;
d. and (3) researching and developing a full-factor safety quantitative evaluation model of a large-scale chemical device, and completing verification of accuracy and rationality.
The embodiment of the invention provides a safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device. In a possible solution, the intelligent platform management in S4 includes the following steps:
and (4) releasing the contents in the S1-S3 to an open platform in a platform mode, and applying the service to a large-scale chemical engineering safety management platform.
Based on the scheme, the complete index system and the evaluation method for the quantitative safety evaluation of the large-scale chemical devices can be conveniently established through the safety evaluation element library, the tool library and the risk evaluation method library of the large-scale chemical devices caused by the accidents; the accident risk identification of the scene construction is completed through the scene construction model and digital simulation operation, mechanism introduction and rationality verification; by taking a full-element index system as an analysis target and a decision target and taking full-dimensional accident evolution mechanism data of people, machines, objects, rings and pipes under different working conditions as analysis content, mining analysis of multi-element heterogeneous dynamic data safely operated by large-scale chemical enterprises is formed, and fusion of engine reasoning and a safety risk professional evaluation model of abnormal working condition deviation is realized.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a block flow diagram of an evaluation method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the mechanism introduction process of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the model algorithm development process of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "central," "longitudinal," "lateral," "upper," "lower," "front," "rear," "left," "right," "vertical," "horizontal," "top," "bottom," "inner," "outer," "axial," "radial," "circumferential," and the like are used in the indicated orientations and positional relationships based on the drawings for convenience in describing and simplifying the description, but do not indicate or imply that the referenced device or element must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus should not be construed as limiting the invention.
In the present invention, unless otherwise specifically stated or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," "fixed," and the like are to be construed broadly and may, for example, be fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally formed; the connection can be mechanical connection, electrical connection or communication connection; either directly or indirectly through intervening media, either internally or in any other suitable relationship, unless expressly stated otherwise. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood by those skilled in the art according to specific situations.
The technical solution of the present invention will be described in detail below with specific examples. The following several specific embodiments may be combined with each other, and details of the same or similar concepts or processes may not be repeated in some embodiments.
Fig. 1 to 3 show a method for quantitatively and intelligently evaluating the safety of a large chemical device according to a first embodiment of the present invention, which includes the following steps:
s1, leading in the accident cause and the accident evolution process of the existing large-scale chemical plant by a mechanism;
s2, establishing a safety quantitative evaluation index system of the large-scale chemical enterprise, and developing a quantitative evaluation method;
s3, developing a model algorithm by taking a full-element index system as an analysis target and a decision target and taking full-dimensional accident evolution mechanism data under different working conditions as analysis content;
and S4, carrying out intelligent platform management on the development application.
Through the contents, the accident mechanism introduction is a technical fusion and modeling processing process in the process of carrying out the safety quantitative evaluation on the large-scale chemical device by utilizing the safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for the large-scale chemical device, the accident mechanism introduction can be used only if the related platform has the condition capability depending on the opening capability and the integration capability of different PAAS platforms, and the accident risk identification of the scene construction is realized by completing the mechanism introduction and the successful judgment of the rationality verification through the scene construction model and the digital simulation operation; establishing an index system and an evaluation method for the safety quantitative evaluation of the large-scale chemical device through a large-scale chemical device safety evaluation element library, a tool library and a risk evaluation method library; by taking a full-element index system as an analysis target and a decision target and taking full-dimensional accident evolution mechanism data of people, machines, objects, rings and pipes which are preferred under different working conditions as analysis content, a multivariate heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology based on safe operation of large-scale chemical enterprises is formed, and the problem of fusion of an inference engine deviated from abnormal working conditions and a safety risk professional evaluation model is solved.
Optionally, the mechanism importing in S1 includes the following steps:
importing and modeling device content by adopting a basic engine; accessing a dynamic risk evaluation process of a BP neural network, Apriori and FP-growth algorithm; and (3) completing scene construction model and digital simulation calculation operation of accident cause and evolution process mechanism of the large-scale chemical plant, and verifying effective accident mechanism and triggering condition under different accident conditions. It should be noted that, in this embodiment, the basic engine may be a cloud device platform, a three-dimensional GIS, a BIM, or the like, and by such a mechanism introduction manner, introduction of an accident cause mechanism and an accident evolution process mechanism of an existing large-scale chemical plant may be implemented.
In addition, the development of the quantitative evaluation method in S2 includes the following steps:
developing core elements, evaluation targets and evaluation indexes of quantitative evaluation from full dimension, and accessing an index library management system to a large-scale chemical enterprise safety quantitative evaluation index system; completing tool and method development of each type of elements and indexes, and accessing a safety quantitative evaluation method library; completing the fusion of each evaluation tool and each evaluation method, and issuing uniform API and service; by the safety quantitative risk assessment mode, the accuracy and the reasonability of an assessment system and assessment indexes under different accident conditions are realized.
More specifically, the full-dimension includes human dimension, machine dimension, object dimension, ring dimension and pipe dimension, and development work of a model algorithm can be performed by taking dimension accident evolution mechanism data under different working conditions as analysis content.
Further, the development of the modeling algorithm in S3 includes the following steps:
a. extracting, converting, analyzing and modeling data by using a multi-element heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology, and extracting keyword data for safety quantitative evaluation to realize relation mining and evaluation;
b. typical fault mode diagnosis, abnormal working condition deviation reason diagnosis and safety corresponding OEAA closed loop of the whole process of process device operation are completed through a multivariate heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology, and a process device stability monitoring and stability prediction algorithm model is developed;
c. the RCM technology fusion of real-time state monitoring and fault diagnosis is completed through a multi-element heterogeneous mass dynamic data mining analysis technology, and a device full life cycle reliability diagnosis model and an algorithm model of real-time dynamic data are developed;
d. researching and developing a full-factor safety quantitative evaluation model of a large-scale chemical device, and completing verification of accuracy and rationality; in the process of carrying out research and development and verification on a large-scale chemical device full-factor safety quantitative evaluation model, verifying to obtain effective accident mechanisms and trigger conditions under different accident conditions by completing a scene construction model and numerical simulation calculation operation of an accident cause mechanism and an accident evolution process mechanism of the large-scale chemical device, and releasing unified API and service by completing fusion of each evaluation tool and each evaluation method.
Preferably, the intelligent platform management in S4 includes the following steps:
the contents in S1-S3 are issued to an open platform in a platform mode, and the service is applied to a large-scale chemical engineering safety management platform; by utilizing intelligent applications, intelligent water quality of the evaluation technology can be improved conveniently.
In the present invention, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, the first feature "on" or "under" the second feature may be directly contacting the first feature and the second feature or indirectly contacting the first feature and the second feature through an intermediate.
Also, a first feature "on," "above," and "over" a second feature may mean that the first feature is directly above or obliquely above the second feature, or that only the first feature is at a higher level than the second feature. A first feature being "under," "below," and "beneath" a second feature may be directly under or obliquely under the first feature, or may simply mean that the first feature is at a lower level than the second feature.
In the description herein, reference to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example" or "some examples," or the like, means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above are not necessarily intended to refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. Furthermore, various embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification can be combined and combined by one skilled in the art without contradiction.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; and the modifications or the substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions depart from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for a large-scale chemical device is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, leading in the accident cause and the accident evolution process of the existing large-scale chemical plant by a mechanism;
s2, establishing a safety quantitative evaluation index system of the large-scale chemical enterprise, and developing a quantitative evaluation method;
s3, developing a model algorithm by taking a full-element index system as an analysis target and a decision target and taking full-dimensional accident evolution mechanism data under different working conditions as analysis content;
and S4, carrying out intelligent platform management on the development application.
2. The safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for the large chemical plant according to claim 1, wherein the mechanism import in the step S1 comprises the following steps:
importing and modeling device content by adopting a basic engine; accessing a dynamic risk evaluation process of a BP neural network, Apriori and FP-growth algorithm; and (3) completing scene construction model and digital simulation calculation operation of accident cause and evolution process mechanism of the large-scale chemical plant, and verifying effective accident mechanism and triggering condition under different accident conditions.
3. The safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for the large chemical plant according to claim 1, wherein the development of the quantitative evaluation method in the step S2 comprises the following steps:
developing core elements, evaluation targets and evaluation indexes of quantitative evaluation from full dimension, and accessing an index library management system to a large-scale chemical enterprise safety quantitative evaluation index system; completing tool and method development of each type of elements and indexes, and accessing a safety quantitative evaluation method library; and completing the fusion of each evaluation tool and each evaluation method, and issuing uniform API and service.
4. The safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for the large chemical plant according to claim 3, wherein the full-dimension comprises a human dimension, a machine dimension, an object dimension, a ring dimension and a pipe dimension.
5. The safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for the large chemical plant according to claim 1, wherein the development of the model algorithm in the S3 comprises the following steps:
a. extracting, converting, analyzing and modeling data by using a multi-element heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology, and extracting keyword data for safety quantitative evaluation to realize relation mining and evaluation;
b. typical fault mode diagnosis, abnormal working condition deviation reason diagnosis and safety corresponding OEAA closed loop of the whole process of process device operation are completed through a multivariate heterogeneous dynamic data mining analysis technology, and a process device stability monitoring and stability prediction algorithm model is developed;
c. the RCM technology fusion of real-time state monitoring and fault diagnosis is completed through a multi-element heterogeneous mass dynamic data mining analysis technology, and a device full life cycle reliability diagnosis model and an algorithm model of real-time dynamic data are developed;
d. and (3) researching and developing a full-factor safety quantitative evaluation model of a large-scale chemical device, and completing verification of accuracy and rationality.
6. The safety quantitative intelligent evaluation method for large chemical plant equipment according to claim 1, wherein the intelligent platform management in the S4 comprises the following steps:
and (4) releasing the contents in the S1-S3 to an open platform in a platform mode, and applying the service to a large-scale chemical engineering safety management platform.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN106096829A (en) * | 2016-06-06 | 2016-11-09 | 浙江大学 | A kind of petroleum chemical enterprise accident risk loss appraisal method |
| CN108830481A (en) * | 2018-06-13 | 2018-11-16 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of construction safety dynamic evaluation method based on security risk |
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| CN106096829A (en) * | 2016-06-06 | 2016-11-09 | 浙江大学 | A kind of petroleum chemical enterprise accident risk loss appraisal method |
| CN108830481A (en) * | 2018-06-13 | 2018-11-16 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of construction safety dynamic evaluation method based on security risk |
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Application publication date: 20210219 |