CN112330117A - Power distribution network planning year power supply reliability assessment method and device - Google Patents

Power distribution network planning year power supply reliability assessment method and device Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN112330117A
CN112330117A CN202011164800.9A CN202011164800A CN112330117A CN 112330117 A CN112330117 A CN 112330117A CN 202011164800 A CN202011164800 A CN 202011164800A CN 112330117 A CN112330117 A CN 112330117A
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
year
target area
planning
power supply
distribution network
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Granted
Application number
CN202011164800.9A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Other versions
CN112330117B (en
Inventor
李�浩
吴亚雄
张俊潇
张黎明
唐俊熙
王天霖
陈沛东
何璇
黄烨
高崇
曹华珍
许志恒
程苒
罗强
刘瑞宽
李阳
潘险险
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Grid Planning Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Original Assignee
Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Grid Planning Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd, Grid Planning Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd filed Critical Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Priority to CN202011164800.9A priority Critical patent/CN112330117B/en
Publication of CN112330117A publication Critical patent/CN112330117A/en
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of CN112330117B publication Critical patent/CN112330117B/en
Active legal-status Critical Current
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical

Links

Images

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G06Q10/06393—Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Landscapes

  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Public Health (AREA)
  • Primary Health Care (AREA)
  • Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)

Abstract

The application discloses a power distribution network planning year power supply reliability evaluation method and device, wherein characteristic parameters of a target area in the current year and the planning year are obtained and are respectively input into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, and the user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year are output; calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the current year and the actual user average fault power failure time; the user mean failure power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year is calculated based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean failure power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and the power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year is obtained based on the user mean failure power failure time correction value.

Description

Power distribution network planning year power supply reliability assessment method and device
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of power distribution networks, in particular to a method and a device for evaluating the annual power supply reliability of a power distribution network planning.
Background
With the development of social economy, the requirement of users on the reliability of power supply is higher and higher. When the power distribution network is designed, the power distribution network is mostly designed according to the principle that the investment of the power distribution network is minimum under the condition of meeting a certain technical principle, and the reliability is ensured mainly by the technical principle and the N-1 criterion, so that the power distribution network which is put into operation in the future cannot be ensured to be technically and economically optimal as a whole, and the power supply reliability target of the system cannot be ensured. Therefore, power supply reliability evaluation is needed in the power distribution network planning process, a quantitative decision basis is provided for a planning scheme, and power distribution network planning work is effectively guided.
The existing power supply reliability evaluation method only analyzes and evaluates the power supply reliability through historical statistical results, has low accuracy of evaluation results and is difficult to adapt to the requirement of high power supply reliability.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a method and a device for evaluating power supply reliability of a power distribution network planning year, which are used for solving the technical problems that the existing power supply reliability evaluation method only analyzes and evaluates the power supply reliability through historical statistical results, the accuracy of the evaluation results is not high, and the high power supply reliability requirement is difficult to adapt.
In view of this, the present application provides, in a first aspect, a method for evaluating power distribution network planning year power supply reliability, including:
acquiring characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, wherein the characteristic parameters comprise equipment outage parameters, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes, and the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year;
respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, and outputting the user mean fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation values;
after the average fault power failure time of the actual user of the target area in the current year is obtained, calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the estimated value of the average fault power failure time of the user of the target area in the current year and the average fault power failure time of the actual user;
and calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
Optionally, the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is:
Figure BDA0002745430720000021
wherein, SAIDI-F1Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-section single-radiation user2Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-segment single contact customers3Mean time between failures for subscriber of cable 2-1 single ring network, C1、C2、C3The number of lines of the overhead N-section single radiation, the overhead N-section single connection and the cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively.
Optionally, acquiring the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planned year includes:
and calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year and the equipment outage parameters of the current year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year.
Optionally, the device outage parameters include: overhead lines, cable lines, distribution transformers, fault outage rates of circuit breakers and fault repair time.
Optionally, the obtaining of the number of medium-voltage users, the distribution network characteristic parameters, and the key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year includes:
and acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year based on the power distribution network planning service corresponding to the target area.
The second aspect of the present application provides a distribution network planning year power supply reliability evaluation device, includes:
the device comprises an acquisition unit, a processing unit and a processing unit, wherein the acquisition unit is used for acquiring characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, the characteristic parameters comprise equipment outage parameters, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes, and the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year;
the output unit is used for respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planned year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model and outputting the user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planned year, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user average fault power failure time evaluation values;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the current year and the actual user average fault power failure time after the actual user average fault power failure time of the target area in the current year is acquired;
and the second calculation unit is used for calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
Optionally, the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is:
Figure BDA0002745430720000031
wherein, SAIDI-F1Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-section single-radiation user2Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-segment single contact customers3Mean time between failures for subscriber of cable 2-1 single ring network, C1、C2、C3The number of lines of the overhead N-section single radiation, the overhead N-section single connection and the cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively.
Optionally, the acquiring unit includes a first acquiring subunit and a second acquiring subunit;
the first acquisition subunit is used for acquiring equipment outage parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year;
and the second acquisition subunit is used for acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, the characteristic parameters of the power distribution network and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year.
Optionally, the first obtaining subunit is specifically configured to:
acquiring equipment outage parameters of a target area in the current year;
and calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year and the equipment outage parameters of the current year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year.
Optionally, the second obtaining subunit is specifically configured to:
and acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year based on the power distribution network planning service corresponding to the target area.
According to the technical scheme, the method has the following advantages:
the application provides a power distribution network planning year power supply reliability assessment method, which comprises the following steps: acquiring characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, wherein the characteristic parameters comprise equipment outage parameters, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes, and the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year; respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, and outputting the user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user average fault power failure time evaluation values; after the average fault power failure time of an actual user of the target area in the current year is obtained, calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the current year and the average fault power failure time of the actual user; and calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
In the application, the acquired characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year are evaluated through the constructed preset power supply reliability evaluation model, the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the current year and the planning year is output, a reliability correction coefficient is calculated through the actual user average fault power failure time of the target area in the current year and the user average fault power failure time evaluation value in consideration of the possible deviation between the evaluation value and the true value, then the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year is corrected through the reliability correction coefficient, so that the accuracy of the power supply reliability evaluation result of the target area is improved, the problem that the accuracy of the evaluation result is low due to the fact that the existing power supply reliability evaluation method only analyzes and evaluates the power supply reliability through historical statistical results is solved, the technical problem of high power supply reliability requirement is difficult to adapt.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating power distribution network planning year power supply reliability according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an overhead N-segment single-radiation wiring pattern provided by an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an overhead N-segment single-connection wiring pattern according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a cable "2-1" single ring network connection mode according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for evaluating power distribution network planning year power supply reliability according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The application provides a method and a device for evaluating power supply reliability of a power distribution network planning year, which are used for solving the technical problems that the existing power supply reliability evaluation method only analyzes and evaluates the power supply reliability through historical statistical results, the accuracy of the evaluation results is not high, and the high power supply reliability requirement is difficult to adapt.
In order to make the technical solutions of the present application better understood, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
For convenience of understanding, referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of a method for evaluating power distribution network planning year power supply reliability provided by the present application includes:
step 101, obtaining characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, wherein the characteristic parameters comprise equipment outage parameters, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes, and the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year.
The method comprises the steps of obtaining characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, wherein the current year is the current year, the planning year is the year after the current year, and equipment outage parameters in the characteristic parameters are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year, wherein the target area can be a city, a county or a power supply subarea.
Further, the specific steps of acquiring the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the current year and the planned year are as follows: calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the current year; and calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year and the equipment outage parameters of the current year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year. For example, taking a city a as an example, A, B, C, D four subareas are classified according to the calibre of the power supply subarea, four counties and districts, namely county and district 1, county and district 2, county and district 3 and county and district 4 are classified according to the calibre of the county and district, and assuming that the current year is 2019, the historical year is the year of nearly 3 years, namely 2017 and 2019, and the planning years are 2020 and 2021 years respectively. The equipment outage parameter in 2020 is determined by averaging and calculating the equipment outage parameter in 2017 and 2019, and the equipment outage parameter in 2021 is determined by averaging and calculating the equipment outage parameter in 2018 and 2020.
Further, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year are obtained, and the method comprises the following steps: and acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year based on the power distribution network planning service corresponding to the target area. The power distribution network planning service comprises the following steps: in the process of formulating planning services of the power distribution network, the local and urban bureaus can predict the number of medium-voltage users, characteristic parameters of the power distribution network and key service indexes in the planning year according to the load development level and the project propulsion condition of the power distribution network.
Further, the equipment outage parameters comprise the failure outage rates and the failure repair time of the overhead lines, the cables, the distribution transformers and the circuit breakers, the failure outage rates of the overhead lines and the cables are in units (times/hundred kilometers per year), the failure outage rates of the distribution transformers and the circuit breakers are in units (times/hundred kilometers per year), and the failure repair time of the overhead lines, the cables, the distribution transformers and the circuit breakers is in units (h/times). The characteristic parameters of the power distribution network comprise the number of medium-voltage public lines, the average length of the medium-voltage public lines, the average length of a main line of the medium-voltage public lines and the user ratio of branch lines, and the key service indexes comprise the cabling rate, the rotatable power supply rate, the feeder automation coverage rate, the average number of sections of overhead lines and the average number of sections of cable lines.
And 102, respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, and outputting the user mean fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation values.
In the embodiment of the application, evaluation models of 3 typical wiring modes of an overhead N-section single radiation mode, an overhead N-section single connection mode and a cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively constructed, and then a preset power supply reliability evaluation model is obtained based on the three evaluation models. The specific modeling process is as follows:
1. hypothetical conditions for the configuration model:
(1) the influence of a substation bus (an upper-level power grid) and the influence of the fault of the two-side disconnecting switch adjacent to the switch are not considered;
(2) only single point failures are considered, multiple failures are not considered;
(3) the influence of the load level and the transfer energy is not considered, namely, the user load can be transferred if the user is electrically connected with the interconnection switch in topology;
(4) failure of the tie switch, failure of the fuse, is not considered;
(5) the total number of the feeder lines is N, the total number of users is C, and the length of the main line is CLmThe length of the branch line is LbThe failure outage rate of the overhead line is lambdao(sub/km.year), fault outage time of overhead line ro(h/time), the failure outage rate of the cable line is lambdac(times/km.year), the cable line fault outage time is rc(h/time), the failure shutdown rate of the switch is lambdas(times/station/year), the switch failure shutdown time is rs(h/time), the distribution transformer fault outage rate is lambdat(times/station/year), the distribution transformer fault outage time is rt(h/time);
(6) assume a failure upstream restoration power time of trThe time of power supply conversion with the fault downstream power failure is ttEqual;
(7) assuming that the feeder line is uniformly segmented, the number of users distributed in each segment is equal, i.e. the length of each segment of main line is LmThe number of users in each section is C/N;
(8) it is assumed that the branches are also evenly distributed, i.e. the length of the branches in each segment is LbN, the number of users of each branch is CbA ratio of the number of branch users to Cb/C；
(9) It is assumed that both the sectionalizer and the branch switch employ circuit breakers.
2. Configuration model evaluation parameters:
(1) number of overhead lines and cable lines:
overhead line number (medium voltage utility line number) (1-cabling rate);
the number of cable lines is the number of medium voltage utility lines.
(2) The number of lines of an overhead N-section single radiation, an overhead N-section single connection and a cable 2-1 single ring network is as follows:
the number of overhead N-section single-radiation lines is equal to the number of medium-voltage public lines (1-rotatable power supply rate);
the number of overhead N-section single-radiation lines is equal to the number of overhead lines-the number of overhead N-section single-radiation lines;
the number of the lines of the cable 2-1 single-ring network is equal to the number of the cable lines.
(3) Upstream power restoration time t of faultrDownstream of the faultPower off switching time tt：
Figure BDA0002745430720000081
Wherein f is the effective coverage rate of feeder automation.
3. The method comprises the following steps of (1) an overhead N-section single-radiation theoretical power supply reliability evaluation model:
referring to fig. 2, the analysis of the down time of the fault for each user in each segment is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1
Figure BDA0002745430720000082
User average fault power failure time SAIDI-F of overhead N-section single radiation1Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002745430720000083
4. the method comprises the following steps of (1) a theoretical power supply reliability evaluation model of overhead N-section single contact:
as shown in FIG. 3, the analysis of the down time for each user within each segment is shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2
Figure BDA0002745430720000091
Average user fault power failure time SAIDI-F of overhead N-section single contact2Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002745430720000092
5. the theoretical power supply reliability evaluation model of the cable 2-1 single-ring network comprises the following steps:
as shown in FIG. 4, the analysis of the down time for each user within each segment is shown in Table 3.
TABLE 3
Figure BDA0002745430720000093
Figure BDA0002745430720000101
User mean time of failure (SAIDI-F) of cable 2-1 single ring network3Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002745430720000102
6. according to the number of lines of the overhead N-segment single radiation, the overhead N-segment single contact and the cable 2-1 single ring network, a preset power supply reliability evaluation model is obtained by summarizing and weighting, namely:
Figure BDA0002745430720000103
wherein, SAIDI-F1Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-section single-radiation user2Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-segment single contact customers3Mean time between failures for subscriber of cable 2-1 single ring network, C1、C2、C3The number of lines of the overhead N-section single radiation, the overhead N-section single connection and the cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively.
And respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, and outputting the user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year.
And 103, after the average fault power failure time of the actual user of the target area in the current year is obtained, calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the estimated value of the average fault power failure time of the user of the target area in the current year and the average fault power failure time of the actual user.
After the average fault power failure time of the actual users of the target area in the current year is obtained, the average fault power failure time of the actual users of the target area in the current year is divided by the average fault power failure time evaluation value of the users of the target area in the current year to obtain a reliability correction coefficient.
And step 104, calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
And multiplying the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year by the reliability correction coefficient to obtain the user average fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year. And obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user average fault power failure time correction value, wherein the power supply reliability is higher when the user average fault power failure time is shorter, namely the power supply reliability is higher when the user average fault power failure time correction value is smaller.
The above is an embodiment of the method for evaluating the planned annual power supply reliability of the power distribution network provided by the present application, and the following is a specific application example of the method for evaluating the planned annual power supply reliability of the power distribution network provided by the present application.
Taking a city A as an example, A, B, C, D four subareas are classified according to the calibers of power supply subareas, four counties, namely a county 1, a county 2, a county 3 and a county 4 are classified according to the calibers of the counties, the current year is 2019, the historical year is nearly 3 years, namely 2017 and 2019, and the planning years are 2020 and 2021 respectively. The equipment outage parameter in 2020 is determined by averaging and calculating the equipment outage parameter in 2017 and 2019, and the equipment outage parameter in 2021 is determined by averaging and calculating the equipment outage parameter in 2018 and 2020. The shutdown parameters of the facilities in the city a, each power supply section, and each prefecture are shown in table 4.
TABLE 4A shutdown parameters for the local municipality, each power supply division, each county and district
Figure BDA0002745430720000111
Figure BDA0002745430720000121
Figure BDA0002745430720000131
Based on the power distribution network planning service, the medium-voltage user number, the power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the current year, planning year-and-place cities, counties and districts and power supply subareas are obtained. The number of medium voltage users and the characteristic parameters in the a-land city are shown in table 5, and the key service index in the a-land city is shown in table 6.
TABLE 5 number of Medium Voltage subscribers and characteristic parameters in A city
Figure BDA0002745430720000132
TABLE 6 Key Business index of the city
Figure BDA0002745430720000133
Figure BDA0002745430720000141
Characteristic parameters in the tables 4 and 5 are respectively input into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year are output, and specific output results are shown in the table 7.
TABLE 7 user mean time to failure estimate
Figure BDA0002745430720000142
The actual average user failure power outage times of the present year city, each county and district, and each power supply district are obtained and divided by the estimated user average failure power outage time values of the present year city, each county and district, and each power supply district, respectively, to obtain reliability correction coefficients, as shown in table 8.
TABLE 8 reliability correction factor for prefecture, county, district, and power supply district
Figure BDA0002745430720000143
Figure BDA0002745430720000151
The estimated values of the average user failure power outage time of the planned year-of-year city, each county and district, and each power supply district are multiplied by the reliability correction coefficient to obtain the corrected values of the average user failure power outage time of the planned year-of-year city, each county and district, and each power supply district, and the specific results are shown in table 9. And power supply reliability results of the city, each county and district and each power supply subarea in the planning year can be obtained based on the user average fault power failure time correction value.
TABLE 9 User mean time to failure correction
Region(s) 2020 to 2021 year old
A 0.25 0.23
B 0.82 0.72
C 1.75 1.60
D 4.24 3.73
City of county 2.28 2.03
County area 1 2.53 2.42
County 2 4.12 3.25
County 3 3.38 2.20
County area 4 2.94 2.56
County 5 3.39 3.26
County area 6 0.43 0.40
The above method for evaluating the planned annual power supply reliability of the power distribution network provided by the embodiment of the application is as follows, and the method for evaluating the planned annual power supply reliability of the power distribution network provided by the embodiment of the application is as follows.
Referring to fig. 5, an evaluation apparatus for power distribution network planning year power supply reliability provided in the embodiment of the present application includes:
an obtaining unit 501, configured to obtain characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planned year, where the characteristic parameters include an equipment outage parameter, a number of medium-voltage users, a distribution network characteristic parameter, and a key service index, and the equipment outage parameter of the target area in the planned year is obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year;
the output unit 502 is configured to input the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planned year to a preset power supply reliability evaluation model respectively, and output the user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planned year, where the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user average fault power failure time evaluation values;
a first calculating unit 503, configured to calculate a reliability correction coefficient based on the user mean fault power failure time assessment value of the target area in the current year and the actual user mean fault power failure time after acquiring the actual user mean fault power failure time of the target area in the current year;
and the second calculating unit 504 is used for calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
As a further improvement, the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is as follows:
Figure BDA0002745430720000161
wherein, SAIDI-F1Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-section single-radiation user2Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-segment single contact customers3Mean time between failures for subscriber of cable 2-1 single ring network, C1、C2、C3The number of lines of the overhead N-section single radiation, the overhead N-section single connection and the cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively.
As a further improvement, the acquisition unit 501 comprises a first acquisition sub-unit 5011 and a second acquisition sub-unit 5012;
a first acquiring subunit 5011, configured to acquire the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the current year and the planned year;
the second obtaining subunit 5012 is configured to obtain the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters, and key service indicators in the current year and the planned year in the target area.
As a further improvement, the first acquiring subunit 5011 is specifically configured to:
acquiring equipment outage parameters of a target area in the current year;
and calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year and the equipment outage parameters of the current year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year.
As a further improvement, the second acquiring subunit 5012 is specifically configured to:
and acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year based on the power distribution network planning service corresponding to the target area.
It is clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the above-described apparatuses and units may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.
In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the units is only one logical division, and other divisions may be realized in practice, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, and can also be realized in a form of a software functional unit.
The integrated unit, if implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present application may be substantially implemented or contributed to by the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution may be embodied in a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes instructions for executing all or part of the steps of the method described in the embodiments of the present application through a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device). And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes.
The above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application, and not for limiting the same; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application.

Claims (10)

1. A power distribution network planning year power supply reliability assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, wherein the characteristic parameters comprise equipment outage parameters, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes, and the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year;
respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model, and outputting the user mean fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planning year, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation values;
after the average fault power failure time of the actual user of the target area in the current year is obtained, calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the estimated value of the average fault power failure time of the user of the target area in the current year and the average fault power failure time of the actual user;
and calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
2. The method for evaluating planned annual power supply reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is as follows:
Figure FDA0002745430710000011
wherein, SAIDI-F1Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-section single-radiation user2Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-segment single contact customers3Mean time between failures for subscriber of cable 2-1 single ring network, C1、C2、C3The number of lines of the overhead N-section single radiation, the overhead N-section single connection and the cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively.
3. The method for evaluating the reliability of power supply in the planned year of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein obtaining equipment outage parameters of a target area in the planned year comprises:
and calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year and the equipment outage parameters of the current year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year.
4. The method for assessing planned annual power supply reliability of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the equipment outage parameters comprise: overhead lines, cable lines, distribution transformers, fault outage rates of circuit breakers and fault repair time.
5. The method for evaluating reliability of power supply in planning years of a power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the number of medium-voltage users, the characteristic parameters of the power distribution network and the key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning years comprises the following steps:
and acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year based on the power distribution network planning service corresponding to the target area.
6. The utility model provides a distribution network planning year power supply reliability evaluation device which characterized in that includes:
the device comprises an acquisition unit, a processing unit and a processing unit, wherein the acquisition unit is used for acquiring characteristic parameters of a target area in a current year and a planning year, the characteristic parameters comprise equipment outage parameters, the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes, and the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year are obtained by calculating the equipment outage parameters of the target area in a historical year and the current year;
the output unit is used for respectively inputting the characteristic parameters of the target area in the current year and the planned year into a preset power supply reliability evaluation model and outputting the user average fault power failure time evaluation values of the target area in the current year and the planned year, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is a relational mapping model of the characteristic parameters and the user average fault power failure time evaluation values;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating a reliability correction coefficient based on the user average fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the current year and the actual user average fault power failure time after the actual user average fault power failure time of the target area in the current year is acquired;
and the second calculation unit is used for calculating a user mean fault power failure time correction value of the target area in the planning year based on the reliability correction coefficient and the user mean fault power failure time evaluation value of the target area in the planning year, and obtaining a power supply reliability result of the target area in the planning year based on the user mean fault power failure time correction value.
7. The distribution network planned year power supply reliability evaluation device of claim 6, wherein the preset power supply reliability evaluation model is:
Figure FDA0002745430710000021
wherein, SAIDI-F1Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-section single-radiation user2Average time to failure, SAIDI-F, for overhead N-segment single contact customers3Mean time between failures for subscriber of cable 2-1 single ring network, C1、C2、C3The number of lines of the overhead N-section single radiation, the overhead N-section single connection and the cable 2-1 single ring network are respectively.
8. The distribution network planned year power supply reliability evaluation device according to claim 6, wherein the obtaining unit comprises a first obtaining subunit and a second obtaining subunit;
the first acquisition subunit is used for acquiring equipment outage parameters of the target area in the current year and the planning year;
and the second acquisition subunit is used for acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, the characteristic parameters of the power distribution network and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year.
9. The distribution network planned year power supply reliability evaluation device of claim 8, wherein the first obtaining subunit is specifically configured to:
acquiring equipment outage parameters of a target area in the current year;
and calculating the average value of the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year based on the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the historical year and the equipment outage parameters of the current year to obtain the equipment outage parameters of the target area in the planning year.
10. The distribution network planned year power supply reliability evaluation device of claim 8, wherein the second obtaining subunit is specifically configured to:
and acquiring the number of medium-voltage users, power distribution network characteristic parameters and key service indexes of the target area in the current year and the planning year based on the power distribution network planning service corresponding to the target area.
CN202011164800.9A 2020-10-27 2020-10-27 Power distribution network planning annual power supply reliability assessment method and device Active CN112330117B (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202011164800.9A CN112330117B (en) 2020-10-27 2020-10-27 Power distribution network planning annual power supply reliability assessment method and device

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202011164800.9A CN112330117B (en) 2020-10-27 2020-10-27 Power distribution network planning annual power supply reliability assessment method and device

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN112330117A true CN112330117A (en) 2021-02-05
CN112330117B CN112330117B (en) 2022-09-13

Family

ID=74296928

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN202011164800.9A Active CN112330117B (en) 2020-10-27 2020-10-27 Power distribution network planning annual power supply reliability assessment method and device

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN112330117B (en)

Cited By (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN113051755A (en) * 2021-03-23 2021-06-29 广东电网有限责任公司 Method and system for judging operation reliability of power distribution network capable of dividing regions
CN114024306A (en) * 2021-11-05 2022-02-08 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Feeder line power supply reliability assessment method under switch hybrid configuration
CN114154899A (en) * 2021-12-09 2022-03-08 深圳供电局有限公司 Method and system for evaluating number of uninterrupted power supply operations
CN114219240A (en) * 2021-12-01 2022-03-22 深圳供电局有限公司 Method and system for evaluating reliability of medium-voltage distribution network
CN115329513A (en) * 2022-07-11 2022-11-11 国网江苏省电力有限公司徐州供电分公司 Reliability index design method and system based on power distribution planning

Citations (10)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
GB432967A (en) * 1934-02-07 1935-08-07 William Estaugh Improvements in means of and apparatus for conducting telephony through cables over long distances
JP2005094870A (en) * 2003-09-16 2005-04-07 Kansai Electric Power Co Inc:The Method for evaluating supply reliability of distribution system
CN104008455A (en) * 2014-05-30 2014-08-27 重庆大学 Forward-back substitution method for reliability assessment of complex radial power distribution networks
CN105576658A (en) * 2016-02-19 2016-05-11 国网新疆电力公司经济技术研究院 Method for analyzing economy of power distribution network reconstruction project on basis of wiring mode
US20170212157A1 (en) * 2016-01-22 2017-07-27 Aerinet Solutions, L.L.C. Real-Time Outage Analytics And Reliability Benchmarking System
CN107748956A (en) * 2017-10-17 2018-03-02 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of appraisal procedure of power distribution network typical wiring non-integer segmentation reliability
CN109409786A (en) * 2018-12-05 2019-03-01 广东电网有限责任公司 The appraisal procedure and system of distribution network reliability
CN110350526A (en) * 2019-07-15 2019-10-18 华北水利水电大学 A kind of optimization method of Distribution Network Frame ceases to be busy block switch position
CN110705878A (en) * 2019-09-30 2020-01-17 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Method for approximately estimating reliability of medium-voltage distribution network
CN111784141A (en) * 2020-06-23 2020-10-16 广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局 Power supply reliability evaluation method, device, equipment and storage medium

Patent Citations (10)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
GB432967A (en) * 1934-02-07 1935-08-07 William Estaugh Improvements in means of and apparatus for conducting telephony through cables over long distances
JP2005094870A (en) * 2003-09-16 2005-04-07 Kansai Electric Power Co Inc:The Method for evaluating supply reliability of distribution system
CN104008455A (en) * 2014-05-30 2014-08-27 重庆大学 Forward-back substitution method for reliability assessment of complex radial power distribution networks
US20170212157A1 (en) * 2016-01-22 2017-07-27 Aerinet Solutions, L.L.C. Real-Time Outage Analytics And Reliability Benchmarking System
CN105576658A (en) * 2016-02-19 2016-05-11 国网新疆电力公司经济技术研究院 Method for analyzing economy of power distribution network reconstruction project on basis of wiring mode
CN107748956A (en) * 2017-10-17 2018-03-02 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of appraisal procedure of power distribution network typical wiring non-integer segmentation reliability
CN109409786A (en) * 2018-12-05 2019-03-01 广东电网有限责任公司 The appraisal procedure and system of distribution network reliability
CN110350526A (en) * 2019-07-15 2019-10-18 华北水利水电大学 A kind of optimization method of Distribution Network Frame ceases to be busy block switch position
CN110705878A (en) * 2019-09-30 2020-01-17 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Method for approximately estimating reliability of medium-voltage distribution network
CN111784141A (en) * 2020-06-23 2020-10-16 广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局 Power supply reliability evaluation method, device, equipment and storage medium

Non-Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
ALI REZA ABBASI 等: "Considering cost and reliability in electrical and thermal distribution networks reinforcement planning", 《ENERGY》 *
VISVAKUMAR ARAVINTHAN 等: "Optimized Maintenance Scheduling for Budget-Constrained Distribution Utility", 《IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID》 *
吴亚雄 等: "架空线路N分段n联络接线模式最优分段数计算", 《***规划》 *

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN113051755A (en) * 2021-03-23 2021-06-29 广东电网有限责任公司 Method and system for judging operation reliability of power distribution network capable of dividing regions
CN114024306A (en) * 2021-11-05 2022-02-08 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Feeder line power supply reliability assessment method under switch hybrid configuration
CN114024306B (en) * 2021-11-05 2024-04-16 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Feeder power supply reliability assessment method under switch mixed configuration
CN114219240A (en) * 2021-12-01 2022-03-22 深圳供电局有限公司 Method and system for evaluating reliability of medium-voltage distribution network
CN114154899A (en) * 2021-12-09 2022-03-08 深圳供电局有限公司 Method and system for evaluating number of uninterrupted power supply operations
CN115329513A (en) * 2022-07-11 2022-11-11 国网江苏省电力有限公司徐州供电分公司 Reliability index design method and system based on power distribution planning
CN115329513B (en) * 2022-07-11 2024-02-13 国网江苏省电力有限公司徐州供电分公司 Reliability index design method and system based on power distribution planning

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
CN112330117B (en) 2022-09-13

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN112330117B (en) Power distribution network planning annual power supply reliability assessment method and device
Najafi et al. A framework for optimal planning in large distribution networks
Biswas et al. Optimum distributed generation placement with voltage sag effect minimization
Teng et al. Value-based distributed generator placements for service quality improvements
Millar et al. Impact of MV connected microgrids on MV distribution planning
CN104318374A (en) Method for assessing reliability of medium voltage distribution network for calculating upstream power restoration operation time
CN107609725A (en) A kind of power transmission network methods of risk assessment for considering transformer station and influenceing
CN113689119B (en) Power distribution network power supply reliability evaluation method, equipment and medium based on digital twin
Agajie et al. Reliability enhancement and voltage profile improvement of distribution network using optimal capacity allocation and placement of distributed energy resources
CN105759171A (en) Method for improving distribution network switching-out inspection efficiency based on distribution line condition evaluation
CN106953319B (en) Optimal segmentation method and device for power distribution network line
CN107871202A (en) A kind of system adequacy evaluation method of meter and multi-voltage grade
Zhou et al. An optimal expansion planning of electric distribution network incorporating health index and non-network solutions
Hernando-Gil et al. Evaluation of fault levels and power supply network impedances in 230/400 V 50 Hz generic distribution systems
Escalera et al. Contribution of active management technologies to the reliability of power distribution networks
Tosatto et al. HVDC loss factors in the Nordic power market
CN113793039A (en) Medium and low voltage distribution network reliability assessment method considering multi-type terminals
CN117374928A (en) Medium-voltage line planning method, device and equipment for power distribution network and storage medium
CN102426665A (en) Selection method of planning construction standard of electric distribution network
CN117422299A (en) Risk assessment method for power transmission and transformation system containing multi-state wind power plant
CN110738411B (en) Reliability analysis method for typical wiring mode of power distribution network
CN108573454A (en) A kind of computational methods of regional distribution network middle pipe lineation damage electricity
CN107565547A (en) A kind of power distribution network operation reliability evaluation and optimization system
CN106651639A (en) Method and system for determining power guaranteeing operation mode based on reliability evaluation
CN107994572A (en) A kind of distribution network reliability measure for improvement applicability quantitative analysis method

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
GR01 Patent grant
GR01 Patent grant