CN112114384A - Power transmission line icing occurrence probability forecasting method - Google Patents
Power transmission line icing occurrence probability forecasting method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of a power transmission line, which comprises the following steps: acquiring lattice point data of atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuity, analyzing by adopting a T-mode principal component analysis method, and classifying weather according to a circulation field of the middle and lower layers of a troposphere of regional lattice point data; combining different types of atmospheric circulation of areas needing forecasting in winter in a certain period of time to perform synthesis analysis to obtain a conceptual model of weather circulation situation typing; the method can objectively predict the occurrence probability of icing, does not depend on the subjective consciousness of business personnel, improves the forecasting accuracy of icing occurrence, is convenient to know the weather characteristics of icing occurrence in scientific research and business application, and provides scientific support for the forecasting of the icing occurrence of the power transmission line.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a weather forecasting technology, in particular to a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of a power transmission line.
Background
Icing is always a serious meteorological disaster of the power transmission line in the south, and directly threatens the operation and maintenance of the power transmission line. The icing process is not only controlled by the weather conditions (northern cold tide and southern water vapor) and the altitude, but also influenced by various factors such as local meteorological elements and the like.
In 2008, 10 th to 2 th, in the south of China, a continuous large-range low-temperature rain and snow freezing disaster weather process occurs, and a plurality of scholars analyze the process, for example, researches find that atmospheric circulation is abnormal and that high-pressure ridges of Wularshan mountain develop strongly, the north in front of the ridges guides airflow to convey cold air to the south, the south-west airflow in front of the grooves conveys water vapor to the north, and the cold air and warm and humid airflow are converged to provide conditions for the occurrence of the freezing rain and snow weather. And the reasons of low temperature, snowfall and freezing disaster at this time are analyzed in three aspects such as atmospheric circulation abnormality, water vapor transmission, temperature inversion layer and the like. The circulation parting characteristic analysis is carried out on 8 continuous low-temperature rain and snow freezing events since 1980, and the large-scale circulation characteristic of the continuous low-temperature rain and snow freezing events in south China is considered to be mainly of a single-resistance type and a double-resistance type. Subjective weather situation analysis of most cases is carried out, a systematic objective method is not summarized, and representativeness and guidance of power transmission line icing forecasting are lacked.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of a power transmission line, which is used for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing in an objective method, does not depend on the subjective consciousness of business personnel and improves the forecasting accuracy rate of the occurrence of icing.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of a transmission line comprises the following steps:
acquiring lattice point data of atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuity, analyzing by adopting a T-mode principal component analysis method, and classifying weather according to a circulation field of the middle and lower layers of a troposphere of regional lattice point data;
combining different types of atmospheric circulation of areas needing forecasting in winter in a certain period of time to perform synthesis analysis to obtain a conceptual model of weather circulation situation typing;
establishing a local meteorological condition historical database for forecasting the icing and occurrence of regional power transmission lines according to the icing estimated by the tension and the actual encrypted observation icing and meteorological element data, and counting the icing thickness, the occurrence probability and the meteorological element characteristics under different weather circulation situation types by combining the obtained concept model of the weather circulation situation type;
calculating the leading, synchronizing and lagging correlation coefficients of each atmospheric circulation index, the initial icing thickness and the maximum icing thickness under the conceptual models of different weather circulation situations, obtaining the causal relationship between the leading and synchronizing weather types and weather circulation indexes and the icing events of the regional power transmission lines to be forecasted, and establishing objective icing occurrence probability, a weather type conceptual model of a falling region and a regression forecasting equation of the icing thickness;
forecasting the ice coating occurrence probability and the falling area according to a weather type conceptual model by utilizing a future 72-hour weather shape potential field given by atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuous grid point data;
and calculating circulation indexes and local meteorological elements according to the weather shape potential field for 72 hours in the future, inputting a regression forecasting equation of the icing thickness, and forecasting the icing thickness of the transmission line for 72 hours in the future.
Further, the step of performing synthesis analysis by combining different types of atmospheric circulation of the area needing forecasting in winter in a certain period of time to obtain the conceptual model of weather circulation situation typing comprises the following steps:
calculating a 850hPa height field from a troposphere to stratosphere atmosphere day by day three-dimensional space lattice point in east Asia region in winter of nearly 10 years by adopting a T-mode principal component analysis method to perform objective weather typing;
and then synthesizing different types of near-ground temperature, humidity, wind and water vapor transmission flux meteorological factors, and calculating the east Asia large trough strength, the Siberian high-pressure index, the west Tai auxiliary high-strength index, the west Tai auxiliary high-area index and the auxiliary high-west ridge point position atmospheric circulation index to obtain a conceptual model of the weather circulation situation typing.
Furthermore, the atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time-continuous grid data is atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time-continuous forecast grid data output based on a numerical mode of the European forecast center.
Further, the meteorological element data includes:
the ice-coating position information comprises longitude and latitude information and altitude information;
ice coating characterization parameters including ice coating thickness, ice coating occurrence time and ice coating duration;
local meteorological elements include temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and barometric pressure.
Further, the method for classifying the weather of the circulation field of the lower layer in the troposphere according to the regional lattice point data comprises the following steps:
classifying the 850hPa potential height field by adopting a T-PCA method, wherein the classification quantity is evaluated and determined by explaining cluster variance ECV, and the calculation formula of the ECV is as follows:
where WS is the weather-type sum of squares and TS is the total sum of squares:
k is the number of weather types, Cj is the category j in the k class,
is the element's squared euclidean distance to the centroid:
l is the time step (l ═ 1,2, …, m), YilWhich represents each of the data points, and,
the estimated mean of the weather type j,
is an estimated overall average;
the number of weather classifications is ultimately determined by the increment of the ECV Δ ECV:
ΔECV＝ECVk-ECVk-1
when Δ ECV reaches a maximum, the number k of weather types is determined, indicating that the classification performance is greatly improved and tends to be stable
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of the power transmission line can objectively forecast the occurrence probability of icing, does not depend on subjective consciousness of business personnel, improves the forecasting accuracy of the occurrence of icing, is convenient for knowing the weather characteristics of the occurrence of icing in scientific research and business application, and provides scientific support for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of the power transmission line.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on southern China power transmission lines based on objective weather typing
FIG. 2 shows that the changes of delta ECV and ECV with the number of weather types in winter of 2014 + 2018 are determined by taking southern power grid mountainous region research as an example
FIG. 3 is a time series variation of four types of weather types determined objectively
FIG. 4 is a circulation configuration of 850hPa potential altitude field and wind field of four kinds of objective weather typing synthesis
FIG. 5 is a circulation configuration of 500hPa potential altitude field and wind field of four kinds of objective weather typing synthesis
FIG. 6 shows the data of the ice thickness of the tower poles of different transmission lines between 1 month 25 days and 2 months 1 day in 2018
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing the data of the representative meteorological elements (temperature) of different tower poles of the power transmission line between 1 month, 25 days and 2 months, 1 day in 2018
FIG. 8 is a box diagram of ice thickness under four types of weather
FIG. 9 shows the ice coating rate and average maximum ice coating thickness of tower poles under four weather types
Detailed Description
Example (b):
the technical solution of the present invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Referring to fig. 1, the method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on a power transmission line provided in this embodiment specifically includes the following steps:
and step A, utilizing the three-dimensional multivariable atmospheric space and time continuous grid point data of the latest generation reanalysis data ERA5, and performing weather classification according to the circulation field of the middle and lower layers of the troposphere of the regional grid point data by a T-mode principal component analysis (T-PCA). In this embodiment, the atmosphere from troposphere to stratosphere day by day three-dimensional space lattice points in the east asia region in the period 2014-2018 (12 months to the next 1 month, 2 months) are classified, the classification number is determined by evaluating the interpreted clustering variance (ECV) and Δ ECV, as shown in fig. 2, based on the evaluation result of objective classification of the 850hPa potential height field, it can be seen that Δ ECV reaches the maximum value of 0.059 when k is 4, which indicates that the classification result is stable when the weather type in the winter 2014-2019 is classified into 4 types. It is thus possible to give a weather type identification code for each day within the scope of the study period, as shown in figure 3. These objectively identified weather patterns will be used to match the occurrence of ice coating on the wire to the link behind.
B, synthesizing and analyzing different types of atmospheric circulation every day, and configuring circulation of a 850hPa potential altitude field and a wind field of four types of objective weather typing and synthesis as shown in figure 4; FIG. 5 is a circulation configuration of 500hPa potential altitude field and wind field for four types of objective weather typing synthesis. Similarly, other elements such as temperature, precipitation and humidity may be synthesized. From fig. 4 and 5, the target area of the Guishan section of the southern power grid can be used as a research object, the target area is positioned behind a 500hPa high-altitude tank under Type1, and the target area is used for anti-cyclone circulation control at a 850hPa weak high-pressure top; the Type2 is positioned at the bottom of a 500hPa cold vortex, the front part of 850hPa of the Type2 has cold shear, and a certain south-north wind shear exists above the Guishan mountain; type3 is at the rear of the 500hPa cold vortex, and at the rear of the 850hPa cyclone, dominated by the north wind; type4 is at the front of the 500hPa high pressure ridge, at the bottom of the 850hPa high pressure ridge, and is prevalent with reverse cyclonic circulation. 500hPa east Asia under Type4 is in an inverted omega flow pattern, high pressure is blocked, high pressure is stably maintained, and continuous and stable low pressure configuration of west, east and west can induce cold air in south of Siberian, warm and humid air flow on the ocean is continuously conveyed to the south of China and is converged with the cold air in south of China, so that the weather of freezing rain and snow can be caused, and the ultra-high voltage power transmission line in some high altitude areas is easy to form ice coating. Therefore, the conceptual model of the weather circulation situation typing can be clearly summarized.
Step C, establishing a historical database of local meteorological conditions of icing and occurrence of the power transmission line of the southern power grid in China by using the icing estimated by the pulling force of the southern power grid, actual encrypted observation of the icing and meteorological element data; fig. 6 and 7 show the icing thickness data and representative meteorological element (temperature) data of different power transmission tower poles between 2018, 1, 25 th and 2, 1 th day. By combining the concept models of the weather circulation situation typing, the icing thickness and the occurrence probability, the meteorological element characteristics and the like under the concept models of different weather circulation situation typing can be counted, for example, fig. 8 is an icing thickness box line diagram under four types of weather, and fig. 9 is the icing rate and the average maximum icing thickness of the tower pole under four types of weather. It can be seen that the ice coating rate of Type4 is the highest, and reaches 25.08% on average, and the average ice coating thickness reaches 5.29mm, and in this weather Type, the ice coating rate of the Guijia 118 and the Guiyi 113 which have almost all the time in geographical positions is as high as 50%, and the average ice coating thickness is 8.49-10.36 mm. The average ice coating rate of Type1 is 7.89% at the lowest, but the extremely thick ice coating rate is extremely high, mainly the warm and humid air flow is strong, and the water vapor is sufficient. The average ice coating rates of Type2 and Type3 were 11.93% and 9.17%, with average ice coating thicknesses of 4.16mm and 1.73 mm. On the whole, the ice coating conditions of the Gui A118 line # and the Gui B113 line # are more serious than those of other tower poles, the ice coating rate is high, the ice coating thickness is larger, and the difference of the ice coating rate and the ice coating thickness under the same weather type may depend on the action of micro-topography.
And D, establishing the relation between the weather types and weather indexes in the previous period and the same period and the icing event of the power transmission line in the south China based on the analysis of the steps, namely calculating the leading, same period and lagging correlation coefficients of each atmospheric circulation index, the initial icing thickness and the maximum icing thickness. And giving the corresponding relation between the icing occurrence probability and the weather circulation conceptual model of the falling area and the sizes of the atmospheric circulation indexes of the previous period and the same period. And the early and synchronous local meteorological elements, the altitude and each atmospheric circulation index are used as independent variables, the icing thickness is used as a dependent variable, and a stepwise multiple linear regression method is used for modeling the dependent variable and the independent variable to obtain a regression forecasting model of the icing thickness. The meteorological circulation indexes mainly comprise the following circulation strength indexes: the Siberian high pressure strength index is 40-65 degrees N, and the average sea level air pressure of 80-120 degrees E is a value after standardization; the east Asian large trough strength index is 25-45N, the 500hPa height field normalized value of 110-145E; as the subsidiary height of the western pacific is more westerly during the ice coating period, the subsidiary height range of the western pacific is selected to be north of 10 degrees N and 90 degrees to 160 degrees E, the area index of the subsidiary height range is the number of grid points with the potential height of 500hPa >588gpm in the range, the intensity index is the accumulated difference value of the grid with the potential height of 588gpm and 587gpm, the west ridge point is the longitude of the west position of a 588 contour line, the subsidiary height index of the 850hPa western pacific is 10 degrees to 30 degrees N, and the average distance average value of the potential height of 850hPa of 110 degrees to 150 degrees E is calculated.
Step E, comparing a weather forecast field output by using a numerical mode (high-resolution weather forecast and assimilation numerical mode) of an European forecast center (ECWMF) in the future 72 hours with concept models of icing occurrence probability and falling areas under different atmospheric circulation types summarized in history to obtain an icing occurrence probability forecast result; meanwhile, the weather circulation index, local weather elements and altitude of 72 hours in the future are calculated and input into a regression prediction equation, and the prediction result of the icing thickness is obtained.
In conclusion, the T-mode principal component analysis (T-PCA) adopted by the method is an objective mathematical method based on a computer, can classify weather according to the circulation fields of the middle and lower layers of the troposphere of the regional grid point data, has good spatial and temporal stability, can objectively predict the ice coating occurrence probability, does not depend on the subjective consciousness of business personnel, improves the ice coating occurrence prediction accuracy, is convenient to recognize the weather characteristics of ice coating occurrence in scientific research and business application, and provides scientific and technological support for the power transmission line ice coating occurrence prediction.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical concept and features of the present invention, and the purpose thereof is to enable those skilled in the art to understand the contents of the present invention and implement the present invention accordingly, and not to limit the protection scope of the present invention accordingly. All equivalent changes or modifications made in accordance with the spirit of the present disclosure are intended to be covered by the scope of the present disclosure.
Claims (5)
1. A method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing of a power transmission line is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring lattice point data of atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuity, analyzing by adopting a T-mode principal component analysis method, and classifying weather according to a circulation field of the middle and lower layers of a troposphere of regional lattice point data;
combining different types of atmospheric circulation of areas needing forecasting in winter in a certain period of time to perform synthesis analysis to obtain a conceptual model of weather circulation situation typing;
establishing a local meteorological condition historical database for forecasting the icing and occurrence of regional power transmission lines according to the icing estimated by the tension and the actual encrypted observation icing and meteorological element data, and counting the icing thickness, the occurrence probability and the meteorological element characteristics under different weather circulation situation types by combining the obtained concept model of the weather circulation situation type;
calculating the leading, synchronizing and lagging correlation coefficients of the atmospheric circulation index, the initial icing thickness and the maximum icing thickness under the conceptual models of different weather circulation situations to obtain the correlation between the weather types at the early stage and the synchronizing and the weather circulation indexes and the icing events of the power transmission lines of the areas needing to be forecasted, and establishing objective weather type conceptual models of the icing occurrence probability and the falling areas and a regression forecasting equation of the icing thickness;
forecasting the ice coating occurrence probability and the falling area according to a weather type conceptual model by utilizing a future 72-hour weather shape potential field given by atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuous grid point data;
and calculating circulation indexes and local meteorological elements according to the weather shape potential field for 72 hours in the future, inputting a regression forecasting equation of the icing thickness, and forecasting the icing thickness of the transmission line for 72 hours in the future.
2. The method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on power transmission lines according to claim 1, wherein the step of performing the synthetic analysis by combining the different types of the atmospheric circulation of the area to be forecasted in winter for a certain period of time each day to obtain the conceptual model of the weather circulation situation typing comprises the following steps:
calculating a 850hPa height field from a troposphere to stratosphere atmosphere day by day three-dimensional space lattice point in east Asia region in winter of nearly 10 years by adopting a T-mode principal component analysis method to perform objective weather typing;
and then synthesizing different types of near-ground temperature, humidity, wind and water vapor transmission flux meteorological factors, and calculating the east Asia large trough strength, the Siberian high-pressure index, the west Tai auxiliary high-strength index, the west Tai auxiliary high-area index and the auxiliary high-west ridge point position atmospheric circulation index to obtain a conceptual model of the weather circulation situation typing.
3. The method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on transmission lines according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that the atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time-continuous grid data is atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time-continuous forecast grid data output based on numerical patterns of the european forecasting center.
4. The method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on transmission lines according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that the meteorological element data comprises:
the ice-coating position information comprises longitude and latitude information and altitude information;
ice coating characterization parameters including ice coating thickness, ice coating occurrence time and ice coating duration;
local meteorological elements include temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and barometric pressure.
5. The method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on a transmission line according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the method for classifying weather according to the circulation field of the lower layer in the troposphere of the area grid point data comprises:
classifying the 850hPa potential height field by adopting a T-PCA method, wherein the classification quantity is evaluated and determined by explaining cluster variance ECV, and the calculation formula of the ECV is as follows:
where WS is the weather-type sum of squares and TS is the total sum of squares:
k is the number of weather types, Cj is the category j in the k class,
is the element's squared euclidean distance to the centroid:
l is the time step, l is 1,2, …, m, YilWhich represents each of the data points, and,
the estimated mean of the weather type j,
is an estimated overall average;
the number of weather classifications is ultimately determined by the increment of the ECV Δ ECV:
ΔECV＝ECVk-ECVk-1
when Δ ECV reaches a maximum value, the number k of weather types is determined, indicating that the classification performance is greatly improved and tends to be stable.
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