CN111766622A - b-value space-time scanning method, system and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a b-value space-time scanning method, a system and a device, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size; performing b-value time scanning on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius to obtain a b-value time change curve; and obtaining the b value time change curves of all the grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain the b value time change curve with the highest similarity. The invention can effectively identify earthquake precursors and carry out prediction and forecast of major earthquakes.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of earthquake prediction, in particular to a b-value space-time scanning method, a b-value space-time scanning system and a b-value space-time scanning device.
Background
In the prior art, the seismic activity b value is a parameter describing the relationship between a major earthquake and a minor earthquake, and is usually 1, i.e., the number of minor earthquakes is 30 times higher than the major earthquake by one step. However, the value changes with time during the earthquake inoculation process (before earthquake), and a great deal of research shows that the b values before the major earthquakes such as Tangshan earthquake in 1976, Haicheng earthquake in 1974, and the Shchen-Table earthquake in 1966 have certain time change rules, namely: usually, the earthquake rises before earthquake, and after 2-3 years, the earthquake falls suddenly, and during the recovery period, the earthquake occurs quickly. The b value time change is an important index (precursor) for predicting and forecasting the extra-large earthquake internationally. However, before the grand earthquake in Wenchuan in 2008, no time abnormal change characteristic corresponding to the b value is observed, so that the grand earthquake in Wenchuan is unprecedented before occurrence, and even a few seismologists consider that the Longmen mountain fracture zone of the grand earthquake in Wenchuan is a place where the grand earthquake cannot occur, so that the earthquake risk level in the region is reduced.
The existing technology only carries out time scanning of the b value along an earthquake fracture zone or a seismic source zone, and the true b value earthquake precursor anomaly (or precursor) cannot be found because the selected space area is too large (the anomaly is smoothed out and cannot be identified) or too small (the error of calculating the b value is too large and cannot be identified due to too small number of earthquakes). In addition, the source area of the future earthquake is unknown, so the current b-time scanning method cannot identify the precursor abnormality of the future major earthquake at all, and has no earthquake prediction value.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a b-value space-time scanning method, a b-value space-time scanning system and a b-value space-time scanning device, and aims to solve the problems in the prior art.
The invention provides a b-value space-time scanning method, which comprises the following steps:
determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size;
performing b-value time scanning on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius to obtain a b-value time change curve;
and obtaining the b value time change curves of all the grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain the b value time change curve with the highest similarity.
The invention provides a b-value space-time scanning system, which comprises:
the device comprises a dividing module, a judging module and a judging module, wherein the dividing module is used for determining a scanning area and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size;
the b value scanning module is used for carrying out b value time scanning on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius to obtain a b value time change curve;
and the comparison module is used for acquiring the b value time change curves of all the grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain the b value time change curve with the highest similarity.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a b-value space-time scanning device, which comprises: a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the computer program, when executed by the processor, implementing the steps of the above b-value spatiotemporal scanning method.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, wherein an implementation program for information transmission is stored on the computer readable storage medium, and the implementation program is used for implementing the steps of the b-value space-time scanning method when being executed by a processor.
By adopting the embodiment of the invention, the time scanning and the space scanning are carried out on the b value, so that the real b value abnormity before the major earthquake is more likely to be explored, the earthquake precursor is effectively identified, and the prediction and forecast work of the major earthquake is carried out.
The foregoing description is only an overview of the technical solutions of the present invention, and the embodiments of the present invention are described below in order to make the technical means of the present invention more clearly understood and to make the above and other objects, features, and advantages of the present invention more clearly understandable.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of spatiotemporal scanning of values b according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a retrospective test according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a b-value spatiotemporal scanning system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a b-value spatiotemporal scanning device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the following embodiments, and it should be understood that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "center", "longitudinal", "lateral", "length", "width", "thickness", "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", "clockwise", "counterclockwise", and the like, indicate orientations and positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, and are used only for convenience of description and simplicity of description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element being referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, should not be considered as limiting the present invention.
Furthermore, the terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, features defined as "first", "second", may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the described features. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means two or more unless specifically defined otherwise. Furthermore, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly and may, for example, be fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
Method embodiment
According to an embodiment of the present invention, a b-value spatio-temporal scanning method is provided, fig. 1 is a flowchart of the b-value spatio-temporal scanning method according to an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 1, the b-value spatio-temporal scanning method according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:
step 101, determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size; in step 101, a square scanning area is determined, the square scanning area is divided according to a-degree size, and the square scanning area is divided into a plurality of a-degree × a-degree square grid nodes, where a is greater than 0.
Step 102, time scanning of a b value is carried out on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius, and a b value time change curve is obtained; the preset length is determined according to the space scale of the earthquake source region; in step 102, the time scanning of the b value specifically includes:
and according to the N-year scale, calculating the b value according to all small earthquakes occurring at the grid nodes by taking N months as a step length, wherein N is the number of years and N is the number of months.
And 103, acquiring b value time change curves of all grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain a b value time change curve with the highest similarity. The template curve is a precursor characteristic curve of the b value of the conventional major earthquake changing along with time.
After step 103 is executed, the following processing may be performed:
acquiring a corresponding grid node and a reply time interval of a b value according to a b value time change curve with the highest similarity; determining a place where an earthquake is to occur according to the grid nodes; and determining the time when the earthquake is about to occur according to the reply time interval.
The following examples are given.
If a 7-magnitude extra earthquake is predicted, the time-space scanning of the b value is used for identifying earthquake precursors (anomalies). Since the location of the future 7-degree major earthquake is not known at all, a square area (latitude and longitude ranges are known) is selected and then subdivided according to the size of 0.2 degrees (about 20 kilometers), and the whole interested space is divided into a plurality of square grids of 0.2 degrees x 0.2 degrees. Then, for each grid node in the space, a time scan of the b value is performed in a range with a radius of 50km (the space scale of the 7-level seismic source area is 100km), that is, the b value is calculated according to a 10-year scale and a step length of 1 month. I.e. all small earthquakes occurring within 10 years of the small area are selected for the calculation of the b-value. Thus, in the selected spatial region, each grid node has a curve of b value over time, and if there are 100 nodes, there are 100 curves of b value over time. Finally, according to the precursor characteristics (as a template) of the previous b value changing with time of the past major earthquakes, such as the Tangshan earthquake, the Schchender earthquake, the Haicheng earthquake and the like, the 100 curves of the b value changing with time are compared with the template curves one by one, wherein the most similar curve is to be searched, the grid node is the place where the future major earthquake occurs, and the b value is the time when the future major earthquake occurs in the recovery process. Therefore, the new b-value space-time scanning method is beneficial to well identifying the earthquake precursor abnormal characteristics of the b-value, and the future major earthquake can be predicted.
The embodiment of the invention adopts the method to carry out retrospective inspection on the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, as shown in FIG. 2, (e) in FIG. 2 is a Wenchuan earthquake seismographic epicenter, and just the variation curve of the b value along with time is most consistent with the b value curve of the past major earthquake, and most of the predecessors do not find that the Wenchuan earthquake has earthquake abnormity (premonition) before.
In summary, by means of the technical scheme of the embodiment of the invention, the b value is not only scanned (calculated) in time but also scanned in space, so that the real b value abnormality before the major earthquake is more likely to be explored, and therefore, the earthquake precursor is effectively identified, and the prediction and forecast work of the major earthquake is carried out.
System embodiment
According to an embodiment of the present invention, a b-value spatiotemporal scanning system is provided, fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the b-value spatiotemporal scanning system according to an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 3, the b-value spatiotemporal scanning system according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:
a dividing module 30, configured to determine a scanning area, and divide the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size; the dividing module 30 is specifically configured to:
determining a square scanning area, subdividing the square scanning area according to the size of a degree, and subdividing the square scanning area into a plurality of square grid nodes of a degree multiplied by a degree, wherein a is larger than 0;
a b value scanning module 32, configured to perform b value time scanning on each grid node within a range with a predetermined length as a radius to obtain a b value time variation curve; wherein the predetermined length is determined according to the spatial scale of the seismic source region;
the b-value scanning module 32 is specifically configured to:
and according to the N-year scale, calculating the b value according to all small earthquakes occurring at the grid nodes by taking N months as a step length, wherein N is the number of years and N is the number of months.
And the comparison module 34 is configured to obtain b-value time variation curves of all the grid nodes, and compare each b-value time variation curve with the template curve to obtain a b-value time variation curve with the highest similarity. The template curve is a precursor characteristic curve of the past major earthquake b value changing along with time.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the system may further include:
the analysis module is used for acquiring the corresponding grid nodes and the reply time interval of the b value according to the b value time change curve with the highest similarity; determining a place where an earthquake is to occur according to the grid nodes; determining the time of the earthquake to occur according to the reply time interval;
the embodiment of the present invention is a system embodiment corresponding to the above method embodiment, and specific operations of each module may be understood with reference to the description of the method embodiment, which is not described herein again.
Apparatus embodiment one
An embodiment of the present invention provides a b-value space-time scanning apparatus, as shown in fig. 4, including: a memory 40, a processor 42 and a computer program stored on the memory 40 and executable on the processor 42, which computer program, when executed by the processor 42, carries out the following method steps:
step 101, determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size; in step 101, a square scanning area is determined, the square scanning area is divided according to a-degree size, and the square scanning area is divided into a plurality of a-degree × a-degree square grid nodes, where a is greater than 0.
Step 102, time scanning of a b value is carried out on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius, and a b value time change curve is obtained; the preset length is determined according to the space scale of the earthquake source region; in step 102, the time scanning of the b value specifically includes:
and according to the N-year scale, calculating the b value according to all small earthquakes occurring at the grid nodes by taking N months as a step length, wherein N is the number of years and N is the number of months.
And 103, acquiring b value time change curves of all grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain a b value time change curve with the highest similarity. The template curve is a precursor characteristic curve of the b value of the conventional major earthquake changing along with time.
After step 103 is executed, the following processing may be performed:
acquiring a corresponding grid node and a reply time interval of a b value according to a b value time change curve with the highest similarity; determining a place where an earthquake is to occur according to the grid nodes; and determining the time when the earthquake is about to occur according to the reply time interval.
The following examples are given.
If a 7-magnitude extra earthquake is predicted, the time-space scanning of the b value is used for identifying earthquake precursors (anomalies). Since the location of the future 7-degree major earthquake is not known at all, a square area (latitude and longitude ranges are known) is selected and then subdivided according to the size of 0.2 degrees (about 20 kilometers), and the whole interested space is divided into a plurality of square grids of 0.2 degrees x 0.2 degrees. Then, for each grid node in the space, a time scan of the b value is performed in a range with a radius of 50km (the space scale of the 7-level seismic source area is 100km), that is, the b value is calculated according to a 10-year scale and a step length of 1 month. I.e. all small earthquakes occurring within 10 years of the small area are selected for the calculation of the b-value. Thus, in the selected spatial region, each grid node has a curve of b value over time, and if there are 100 nodes, there are 100 curves of b value over time. Finally, according to the precursor characteristics (as a template) of the previous b value changing with time of the past major earthquakes, such as the Tangshan earthquake, the Schchender earthquake, the Haicheng earthquake and the like, the 100 curves of the b value changing with time are compared with the template curves one by one, wherein the most similar curve is to be searched, the grid node is the place where the future major earthquake occurs, and the b value is the time when the future major earthquake occurs in the recovery process. Therefore, the new b-value space-time scanning method is beneficial to well identifying the earthquake precursor abnormal characteristics of the b-value, and the future major earthquake can be predicted.
Device embodiment II
The embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which an implementation program for information transmission is stored, and when being executed by a processor 42, the implementation program implements the following method steps:
step 101, determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size; in step 101, a square scanning area is determined, the square scanning area is divided according to a-degree size, and the square scanning area is divided into a plurality of a-degree × a-degree square grid nodes, where a is greater than 0.
Step 102, time scanning of a b value is carried out on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius, and a b value time change curve is obtained; the preset length is determined according to the space scale of the earthquake source region; in step 102, the time scanning of the b value specifically includes:
and according to the N-year scale, calculating the b value according to all small earthquakes occurring at the grid nodes by taking N months as a step length, wherein N is the number of years and N is the number of months.
And 103, acquiring b value time change curves of all grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain a b value time change curve with the highest similarity. The template curve is a precursor characteristic curve of the b value of the conventional major earthquake changing along with time.
After step 103 is executed, the following processing may be performed:
acquiring a corresponding grid node and a reply time interval of a b value according to a b value time change curve with the highest similarity; determining a place where an earthquake is to occur according to the grid nodes; and determining the time when the earthquake is about to occur according to the reply time interval.
The following examples are given.
If a 7-magnitude extra earthquake is predicted, the time-space scanning of the b value is used for identifying earthquake precursors (anomalies). Since the location of the future 7-degree major earthquake is not known at all, a square area (latitude and longitude ranges are known) is selected and then subdivided according to the size of 0.2 degrees (about 20 kilometers), and the whole interested space is divided into a plurality of square grids of 0.2 degrees x 0.2 degrees. Then, for each grid node in the space, a time scan of the b value is performed in a range with a radius of 50km (the space scale of the 7-level seismic source area is 100km), that is, the b value is calculated according to a 10-year scale and a step length of 1 month. I.e. all small earthquakes occurring within 10 years of the small area are selected for the calculation of the b-value. Thus, in the selected spatial region, each grid node has a curve of b value over time, and if there are 100 nodes, there are 100 curves of b value over time. Finally, according to the precursor characteristics (as a template) of the previous b value changing with time of the past major earthquakes, such as the Tangshan earthquake, the Schchender earthquake, the Haicheng earthquake and the like, the 100 curves of the b value changing with time are compared with the template curves one by one, wherein the most similar curve is to be searched, the grid node is the place where the future major earthquake occurs, and the b value is the time when the future major earthquake occurs in the recovery process. Therefore, the new b-value space-time scanning method is beneficial to well identifying the earthquake precursor abnormal characteristics of the b-value, and the future major earthquake can be predicted.
The embodiment of the invention adopts the method to carry out retrospective inspection on the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, as shown in FIG. 2, (e) in FIG. 2 is a Wenchuan earthquake seismographic epicenter, and just the variation curve of the b value along with time is most consistent with the b value curve of the past major earthquake, and most of the predecessors do not find that the Wenchuan earthquake has earthquake abnormity (premonition) before.
In summary, by means of the technical scheme of the embodiment of the invention, the b value is not only scanned (calculated) in time but also scanned in space, so that the real b value abnormality before the major earthquake is more likely to be explored, and therefore, the earthquake precursor is effectively identified, and the prediction and forecast work of the major earthquake is carried out.
The computer-readable storage medium of this embodiment includes, but is not limited to: ROM, RAM, magnetic or optical disks, and the like.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the modules or steps of the present invention described above may be implemented by a general purpose computing device, they may be centralized on a single computing device or distributed across a network of multiple computing devices, and alternatively, they may be implemented by program code executable by a computing device, such that they may be stored in a storage device and executed by a computing device, and in some cases, the steps shown or described may be performed in an order different than that described herein, or they may be separately fabricated into individual integrated circuit modules, or multiple ones of them may be fabricated into a single integrated circuit module. Thus, the present invention is not limited to any specific combination of hardware and software.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; and the modifications or the substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions depart from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A b-value space-time scanning method, comprising:
determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size;
performing b-value time scanning on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius to obtain a b-value time change curve;
and obtaining the b value time change curves of all the grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain the b value time change curve with the highest similarity.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises:
acquiring a corresponding grid node and a reply time interval of the b value according to the time change curve of the b value with the highest similarity;
determining a place where an earthquake is to occur according to the grid nodes;
and determining the time when the earthquake is about to occur according to the reply time interval.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein determining a scanning area, and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes of the same size specifically comprises:
determining a square scanning area, dividing the square scanning area according to the size of a degree, and dividing the square scanning area into a plurality of square grid nodes of a degree multiplied by a degree, wherein a is larger than 0.
4. The method of claim 1,
the preset length is determined according to the space scale of the earthquake source region;
the template curve is a precursor characteristic curve of the past major earthquake b value changing along with time.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein performing a temporal scan of b values specifically comprises:
and according to the N-year scale, calculating the b value according to all small earthquakes occurring at the grid nodes by taking N months as a step length, wherein N is the number of years and N is the number of months.
6. A b-value spatio-temporal scanning system, comprising:
the device comprises a dividing module, a judging module and a judging module, wherein the dividing module is used for determining a scanning area and dividing the scanning area into a plurality of grid nodes with the same size;
the b value scanning module is used for carrying out b value time scanning on each grid node in a range taking a preset length as a radius to obtain a b value time change curve;
and the comparison module is used for acquiring the b value time change curves of all the grid nodes, and comparing each b value time change curve with the sample curve respectively to obtain the b value time change curve with the highest similarity.
7. The system of claim 6,
the system further comprises:
the analysis module is used for acquiring the corresponding grid nodes and the reply time interval of the b value according to the b value time change curve with the highest similarity; determining a place where an earthquake is to occur according to the grid nodes; determining the time of the earthquake to occur according to the reply time interval;
the dividing module is specifically configured to:
determining a square scanning area, dividing the square scanning area according to the size of a degree, and dividing the square scanning area into a plurality of square grid nodes of a degree multiplied by a degree, wherein a is larger than 0;
the b value scanning module is specifically configured to:
and according to the N-year scale, calculating the b value according to all small earthquakes occurring at the grid nodes by taking N months as a step length, wherein N is the number of years and N is the number of months.
8. The system of claim 6,
the preset length is determined according to the space scale of the earthquake source region;
the template curve is a precursor characteristic curve of the past major earthquake b value changing along with time.
9. A b-value spatio-temporal scanning device, comprising: memory, processor and computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, which when executed by the processor implements the steps of the b-value spatiotemporal scanning method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 5.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which an information transfer-implementing program is stored, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the b-value spatio-temporal scanning method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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