CN111445159A - Life cycle cost analysis-based pavement maintenance scheme decision method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of road maintenance engineering, and particularly relates to a life cycle cost analysis-based pavement maintenance scheme decision method, which comprises the following operation steps: s1, determining a functional unit; s2, determining maintenance time; s3, evaluating the time value of capital, and carrying out economic analysis on initial construction cost, operation period management cost, environmental cost and residual value indexes in the life cycle of different maintenance schemes; and S4, life cycle cost analysis. The life cycle cost analysis-based pavement maintenance scheme decision method provided by the invention combines the concepts of life prediction and life cycle cost, so that the decision of the maintenance scheme in highway engineering is more reasonable, the engineering construction, the service level of the life cycle and the long-term investment control are more powerful and more comprehensive guaranteed, the road management and maintenance fund use is more reasonable, and the cost performance is higher.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of road maintenance engineering, and particularly relates to a life cycle cost analysis-based pavement maintenance scheme decision method.
Background
At present, the road network of China is relatively perfect, the road construction gradually enters a stable development period, and the maintenance management of the existing road surface becomes the center of gravity of the traffic transportation development at the present stage. With the rapid increase of economy, the traffic volume is increased, and the load of vehicles is accumulated continuously, so that the road surface also bears unprecedented pressure. The road surface diseases are continuously increased, the service quality of the road is influenced, the transportation efficiency of a road network is reduced, and the economic development of the area is seriously influenced. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the situation by necessary maintenance, maintain the traffic capacity of the road, and improve the transportation efficiency and service quality of the road.
The maintenance of the road is used as an infrastructure project, and the measurement of the cost and the benefit of the road should be used as the basis for the decision of the maintenance scheme. In the past, economic evaluation is carried out on maintenance schemes, the economic evaluation is carried out on the scheme, the economic evaluation is generally only focused on the initial construction cost, factors such as subsequent daily maintenance cost and the like of roads are rarely considered, and the situations that the initial construction cost of the selected scheme is low but the whole life cost is high often occur. It is particularly important to perform life cycle based cost analysis of the highway maintenance project at the beginning of the project.
In view of the above-mentioned shortcomings of the existing road surface maintenance methods, the inventor of the present invention has made active research and innovation based on the practical experience and professional knowledge of many years of design and manufacture of such products, and by using the theory, in order to create a road surface maintenance scheme decision method based on life cycle cost analysis, so that the maintenance method is more complete and more practical. After continuous research and design and repeated trial production and improvement, the invention with practical value is finally created.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a life cycle cost analysis-based pavement maintenance scheme decision method, which combines the characteristics of a highway maintenance project, predicts and analyzes maintenance opportunity, and compares the economic influences of different highway maintenance schemes in the whole life cycle of the project, so as to select a scheme capable of meeting service requirements within a design year and obtaining the maximum economic and social benefits.
The technical purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
the invention provides a pavement maintenance scheme decision method based on life cycle cost analysis, which comprises the following operation steps:
s1, determining a functional unit, wherein the functional unit is determined as a foundation stone for evaluating the whole life cycle, and the functional unit standardizes the input and the output of a product system to establish a measuring unit for transverse comparison. The functional unit needs to define the number of lanes, calculate the driving speed, the roadbed width, the road shoulder lane width, the curb belt, the central separation belt and other numerical values. In order to better reflect the full life cycle cost benefits of different road surface structures and facilitate research and comparison, a half-width road surface of a 1km bidirectional six-lane road is taken as 1 functional unit.
S2, determining maintenance opportunity, determining service life according to fatigue, permanent deformation and attenuation of flatness indexes of the pavement, and taking the determined service life as the maintenance opportunity of the pavement;
s3, evaluating the time value of capital, and carrying out economic analysis on initial construction cost, operation period management cost, environmental cost and residual value indexes in the life cycle of different maintenance schemes;
and S4, life cycle cost analysis.
In order to better reflect the full life cycle economic benefits of different road surface structures and facilitate analysis and comparison, a functional unit of the road life cycle cost analysis is defined as a half-width road surface of a 1km bidirectional six-lane road, and consistency and comparability between evaluation results can be ensured.
Further, the road flatness in step S2 refers to the estimated model of the road flatness of the area.
Further, the operation period management cost in step S3 includes daily maintenance costs and intermediate maintenance costs. The daily maintenance cost is mainly related to the influence factors such as the type of the road surface, the environmental conditions, the traffic volume and the like. The daily maintenance cost is calculated by combining the local actual situation and adopting the unit price per kilometer, and the influence on the daily maintenance cost is not considered when the maintenance is carried out.
Further, the initial construction cost in step S3 is determined by the area of the functional unit, the paving thickness of the asphalt pavement construction plan, and the investment unit price of the asphalt pavement construction plan.
Further, the initial construction period cost calculation formula in step S3 is as follows:
CI＝A×d×U (1)
in the formula:
CI-initial construction period cost (yuan);
a-life cycle cost analysis defined functional Unit area (m)2)；
d, paving thickness (m) of the asphalt pavement construction scheme;
u-investment unit price (Yuan) of asphalt pavement construction scheme.
Further, the operation period management cost in step S3 includes daily maintenance costs and intermediate maintenance costs.
Furthermore, the daily maintenance cost is calculated according to the local actual investigation and maintenance unit price and by combining the basic discount rate of the highway industry.
Further, the operation management in step S3 is as follows: MC ═ Cd+Cm(2)
In the formula:
MC-operation management and maintenance cost (Yuan);
Cdconverting daily maintenance cost to a reference year, mainly according to the road surface type, environmental conditions, traffic volume and other influence factors, and simultaneously converting (Yuan) by considering the current rate;
wherein:
in the formula:
n-life cycle cost analysis age;
i-the rate of cash withdrawal, the basic rate of cash withdrawal in the road industry is generally 8%.
Cm-major and medium maintenance costs converted to the benchmark year;
wherein C ism＝∑Ft/(1+i)t(4)
In the formula:
ft-major and minor repair costs incurred in year t;
i-the discount rate, the basic discount rate of the highway industry is generally 8%;
t-the number of years from the baseline year to major and minor repairs.
Further, step S3 includes a travel user cost. The user cost is the vehicle operation cost, which includes the sum of a plurality of expenses such as trip time delay, oil consumption, wheel consumption and vehicle depreciation.
Further, environmental costs include costs due to adverse environmental effects of construction, operational, and maintenance periods.
Further, the residual value in step S3 is the economic value that the road surface loses the basic running function after the mission to the running service is completed, but still has.
Further, the residual value is calculated by the remaining service life value, and the calculation formula is as follows:
SV＝(1-LA/LE)Cr(5)
in the formula:
LAthe years from the construction year of the last maintenance to the end of the service life (or the end of the analysis period);
LEis the expected service life of the maintenance measure;
Cris the construction cost of the reconstruction measure;
SV is the road surface residual value.
Further, in step S4, in the life cycle cost analysis, N years is taken as a life cycle in consideration of the time value of capital, wherein N is more than or equal to 10 and less than or equal to 30.
Further, the calculation formula of the life cycle cost analysis in step S4 is as follows:
LCC＝CI+MC+UC+EC+SV(6)
in the formula:
l CC is a life cycle cost analysis;
UC is the cost of the user for trip;
EC is the cost of the environment.
In conclusion, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a pavement maintenance scheme decision method based on life cycle analysis, aiming at the current situation that economic factors consider one-sided and lack of theoretical basis during decision of the current maintenance scheme. The maintenance scheme decision is more scientifically and reasonably made, so that the implementation of maintenance engineering, the service level in the life cycle and the long-term investment control are more effectively and comprehensively guaranteed, the road management and maintenance fund use is more reasonable, and the cost performance is higher. The method solves the problem that one side is economically considered in the decision-making of the existing pavement maintenance scheme, and provides a method based on life cycle evaluation, so that the evaluation on different maintenance schemes is more comprehensive, reasonable and scientific. And the cost of different maintenance schemes is quantified through economic evaluation indexes, so that the different schemes have comparability, and scientific theoretical basis is provided for subsequent maintenance scheme decision. Based on the cost analysis of the life cycle, a foundation is laid for managing the reasonable application of maintenance funds.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a life cycle maintenance model of an embodiment.
Detailed Description
To further illustrate the technical means and effects of the present invention adopted to achieve the predetermined invention objective, the detailed description of the embodiments, features and effects of the method for deciding a road maintenance scheme based on life cycle analysis according to the present invention is as follows.
Specific implementation processes are discussed in detail below with reference to the embodiments. The specific data is based on a certain engineering project, the project is a bidirectional 6-lane road, the annual average daily traffic volume is 11802pcu/d, and the average annual traffic growth rate is 5.0%.
Three different overlay schemes are now implemented: ordinary AC-13 (scheme A), modified AC-13 (scheme B) and SMA-13 (scheme C), life cycle cost analysis is carried out, and maintenance decision is determined. The main process is as follows: s1, determining a functional unit, taking a half-width 1km of a bidirectional six-lane highway as 1 functional unit, and carrying out life cycle cost analysis by using the economic cost investment required by the fact that an asphalt pavement of 1 functional unit is subjected to a design service life (15 years)
S2, determining maintenance time, determining the service life according to the requirements of fatigue, permanent deformation, flatness and the like of the material, and taking the determined service life as a boundary point of the maintenance time;
s3, evaluating the time value of capital, and carrying out economic analysis on initial construction cost, operation period management cost, environmental cost and residual value indexes in the life cycle of different maintenance schemes;
and S4, life cycle cost analysis.
The specific operation is as follows:
s1, determining functional units
In order to better reflect the whole life cycle economic benefits of different road surface structures and be beneficial to analysis and comparison, the half-width 1km of a bidirectional six-lane highway is taken as 1 functional unit. Life cycle cost analysis was performed with the economic cost investment necessary for 1 functional unit of asphalt pavement to go through a design service life (15 years) to ensure consistency and comparability between the evaluation results.
S2, determining maintenance time
The invention does not make strict requirements on specific prediction models and indexes of maintenance schemes. The determined indexes of the maintenance opportunity in the embodiment are shown in the attached figure 1, the fatigue life of the overlay layer and the permanent deformation of the asphalt layer are analyzed and determined according to road asphalt pavement design specification JTGD50-2017, the pavement evenness refers to an estimated model of the pavement evenness in the region, and the calculation analysis result is shown in the table 1.
TABLE 1 prediction of curing opportunities for different protocols
According to calculation, the scheme A needs to be re-finished in 4 th, 8 th and 12 th years, the scheme B needs to be re-finished in 7 th and 12 th years, and the scheme C only needs to be re-finished in 9 th year.
S3, life cycle cost analysis
1. The construction period cost is calculated according to engineering practice and actual research and the following formula according to the construction period cost:
CI＝A×d×U(1)
in the formula: CI-construction period cost (Yuan);
a-life cycle cost analysis defined functional Unit area (m)2)；
d, paving thickness (m) of the asphalt pavement construction scheme;
u-investment unit price (Yuan) of the asphalt pavement construction scheme, and the construction costs of the three schemes are calculated and determined as shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2 cost of asphalt mixture for different surface layers
| Scheme(s) | Thickness (& cm) | Monovalent (yuan/m)2) | Cost (Yuan/km) (according to 11.5m width) |
| Common asphalt AC-13 | 4 | 58 | 667000 |
| Modified asphalt AC-13 | 4 | 64 | 736000 |
| SMA-13 | 4 | 68 | 782000 |
2. Operation management cost calculation
The calculation formula of the operation management cost is as follows:
MC＝Cd+Cm(2)
in the formula: MC-the asphalt pavement operation management and maintenance cost (Yuan) converted to the benchmark year;
Cdconverting daily maintenance cost to a reference year, mainly according to the road surface type, environmental conditions, traffic volume and other influence factors, and simultaneously converting (Yuan) by considering the current rate;
(1) cost of daily maintenance
According to relevant literature research and development, the daily maintenance cost is mainly related to the influence factors such as the type of the road surface, the environmental condition, the traffic volume and the like. The invention combines with practical research to set the daily maintenance cost of the initial age to 1 ten thousand yuan per year per kilometer. The effect on the daily maintenance costs is not taken into account when repairs are in progress. Age of analysis selection 15, according to formula
In the formula: n-life cycle cost analysis age;
i-the rate of road sticking, the basic rate of road sticking is generally 8%, and the daily maintenance cost is calculated and detailed in table 3.
TABLE 3 daily maintenance costs in the life cycle of the different scenarios
| Scheme(s) | Daily maintenance cost (Yuan) |
| Scheme A | 92442 |
| Scheme B | 92442 |
| Scheme C | 92442 |
(2) Maintenance cost for medium repair
According to the determined maintenance time and formula Cm＝∑Ft/(1+i)t(4)
In the formula: ft-major and minor repair costs incurred in year t;
i-the discount rate, the basic discount rate of the highway industry is generally 8%;
t is the number of years from the baseline year to major and medium maintenance; the calculated medium repair maintenance cost is shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 maintenance costs for medium repairs during the life cycle of the different schemes
3. Travel user cost
The user cost is the vehicle operation cost, which includes the sum of a plurality of expenses such as trip time delay, oil consumption, wheel consumption and vehicle depreciation. Under different environments and conditions, model parameters are different and difficult to calibrate, and the cost of the users is accurately estimated by an immature algorithm at present, so that calculation is not performed in the embodiment, but the method comprises the consideration of the cost of the users.
4. Environmental cost
The environmental cost includes the expenses caused by adverse effects on the environment in different stages such as a construction period, an operation period, a maintenance period and the like. Because of the complexity of calculation, no mature theory is predicted at present, and the embodiment is not explained in detail, but the invention includes consideration of environmental cost.
5. Residual value
The residual value refers to the economic value of the road surface which loses the basic driving function after the mission of the driving service is finished, and the invention does not limit the calculation method of the residual value. In this embodiment, the remaining service life value is selected to calculate the residual value, and Cr is calculated by the last maintenance cost, and the calculation formula is as follows:
SV＝(1-LA/LE)Cr(5)
in the formula LAThe number of years from the construction year of the last maintenance to the end of the life (or the end of the analysis period);
LE-the expected service life of the maintenance measure;
Cr-construction costs of the retrofitting measures;
SV is the pavement residual value.
The road surface residual values of the several schemes are calculated by using formulas respectively, and the results are shown in table 5.
TABLE 5 road surface residual value at end of road surface use for different schemes (1 basic unit)
| Scheme(s) | L A (year) | L E (year) | Cr (Yuan) | Pavement residual value SV (Yuan) |
| |
3 | 4 | 264875 | 66219 |
| |
3 | 5 | 292276 | 116910 |
| Scheme C | 6 | 7 | 391195 | 55885 |
S4, life cycle cost analysis
The life cycle cost analysis and calculation formula is as follows:
LCC＝CI+MC+UC+EC+SV(6)
l CC is life cycle cost analysis;
UC is the cost of the user for trip;
EC is the cost of the environment.
Considering the time value of capital, when the life cycle cost is analyzed, the cost current values of the three schemes in the 15-year life cycle are compared, and finally the total cost of different maintenance schemes is detailed in a table 6.
TABLE 6 present values of costs for different maintenance programs in the life cycle
| Item | Scheme A | Scheme B | Scheme C |
| Initial construction cost | 667000 | 736000 | 782000 |
| Cost of routine maintenance | 92442 | 92442 | 92442 |
| Cost of intermediate repair | 1115499 | 721725 | 391195 |
| Travel user cost | / | / | / |
| Environmental cost | / | / | / |
| Residual value | -66219 | -116910 | -55885 |
| Total up to | 1808722 | 1433257 | 1209752 |
As can be seen from table 6, although the initial construction cost of option a is minimal, the cost of option C is less than that of option a during the life cycle. Meanwhile, the scheme C has excellent road performance and better service level, the maintenance frequency is low, and the interference to the existing traffic is small. Therefore, from the perspective of life cycle cost, scheme C is the most economical, while cost performance is the highest.
The existing process practice also verifies the example, and proves that the life cycle-based pavement maintenance scheme decision method plays a good guiding role in maintenance decision and can effectively help a decision maker to select the optimal scheme.
Although the present invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, it should be understood that various changes, substitutions and alterations can be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A pavement maintenance scheme decision method based on life cycle cost analysis is characterized by comprising the following operation steps:
s1, determining a function unit, wherein the function unit is to standardize the input and output of a product system and establish a measurement unit for transverse comparison, and the function unit is determined jointly according to the number of lanes, the calculated driving speed, the roadbed width, the road shoulder lane width, the numerical values of the curb belt and the central separation belt;
s2, determining the maintenance time, determining the service life according to the fatigue, the permanent deformation and the attenuation of the flatness index of the pavement, and taking the determined service life as the maintenance time of the pavement;
s3, evaluating the time value of capital, and carrying out economic analysis on initial construction cost, operation period management cost, environmental cost and residual value indexes in the life cycle of different maintenance schemes;
s4, life cycle cost analysis.
2. The method for deciding a road maintenance scheme based on life cycle cost analysis of claim 1, wherein the road flatness of step S2 is determined by referring to an estimated model of road flatness of the area.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the initial construction cost in the step S3 is determined by the area of the functional unit, the paving thickness of the asphalt pavement construction scheme and the investment unit price of the asphalt pavement construction scheme.
4. The method for deciding on a road maintenance scheme based on life cycle cost analysis of claim 1, wherein the operation period management cost in the step S3 includes daily maintenance cost and intermediate maintenance cost.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the daily maintenance cost is calculated based on a basic discount rate of a highway industry.
6. The method for deciding a road maintenance scheme based on life cycle cost analysis of claim 1, wherein the step S3 further comprises a travel user cost.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the environmental cost includes costs due to adverse environmental effects of construction period, operation period, and maintenance period.
8. The method for determining a road maintenance scheme based on life cycle cost analysis of claim 1, wherein the residual value in step S3 is the economic value of the road surface which has lost the basic driving function and still has the basic driving function after the mission of the driving service is completed.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the residual value is calculated from a remaining service life value.
10. A method for deciding a road maintenance scheme based on life cycle cost analysis according to any one of claims 1-9, wherein in the step S4, when analyzing the life cycle cost, the time value of capital is considered at the same time, N years is taken as a life cycle, where N is greater than or equal to 10 and less than or equal to 30.
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Application publication date: 20200724 |