CN111444633A - Quantitative analysis method and system for atmospheric pollution process - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a quantitative analysis method and a system for an atmospheric pollution process, which comprises the steps of determining the starting and ending time of a heavy pollution time period according to observation data, and constructing a three-dimensional space grid for an area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process; utilizing a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode to simulate and obtain hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period; and calculating the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode simulation, and simultaneously simulating the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere which is not influenced by the chemical conversion and emission process in the same time period. The advantages are that: the quantitative analysis method has the advantages that the influence of physical processes, chemical conversion and emission processes on various pollutants in the atmosphere in the heavy pollution process is quantitatively analyzed, the quantitative analysis results of weather, chemical conversion and emission processes are simultaneously output in the air quality simulation and forecast process, the calculation precision is high, and the error is small.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of atmospheric science, in particular to a quantitative analysis method and a system for an atmospheric pollution process.
Background
Along with the high-speed development of Chinese economy, the acceleration of urbanization process and the protection of motor vehiclesHas remarkably increased amount of SO in a large amount of industrial processes2And NOxThe emission of the pollution is the most fundamental reason for regional air pollution in China at present. The national international discharge of 2013 takes the measures of 'ten nations' of atmospheric pollution prevention and treatment, and the national institute of government issued and won the blue sky guard war 'three-year action plan' in 2018, aims to greatly reduce the total emission of main atmospheric pollutants, synergistically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, further obviously reduce the concentration of fine particulate matters (PM2.5), obviously reduce heavy pollution days, obviously improve the quality of environmental air and obviously enhance the blue sky happiness of people after 3 years of effort in China. In this goal, reducing heavy contamination days is also a major difficulty.
The main reason for recognizing the air pollution is the precondition of making air pollution prevention measures by governments of all levels. Therefore, the country in 2017 specially establishes the project of 'causes and treatment of attack and customs of atmosphere heavy pollution', and aims to focus on clearing causes and sources of atmosphere heavy pollution in Jingjin Ji and surrounding areas. In the past, aiming at the atmospheric pollution cause in a period of time (such as one month or one year), the research on the functions of the atmospheric diffusion condition, the chemical generation or the change of the emission source is always a definite reference system, namely, compared with the same period; however, this method often fails when directed to a single heavy contamination procedure because there is no "reference frame". The atmospheric conditions always change all the time, and the same atmospheric diffusion conditions do not exist at any time, so the past meteorological condition sensitivity simulation analysis method, namely the sensitivity simulation analysis of the same emission source conditions of the past meteorological conditions in the same period and the current period, cannot be applied to the identification of meteorological and emission effects in the heavy pollution process, therefore, the research on the cause of the atmospheric heavy pollution, particularly how to take corresponding prevention and control measures when the heavy pollution is predicted to occur, needs to develop a new method.
Disclosure of Invention
The present invention is directed to a method and system for quantitative analysis of atmospheric pollution process, so as to solve the above-mentioned problems in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a quantitative analysis method for an atmospheric pollution process comprises the following steps,
s1, determining the start and end time of the heavy pollution time period according to the observation data, and constructing a three-dimensional space grid aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process;
s2, simulating by using a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode to obtain hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period;
s3, combining the meteorological element values obtained in the step S2, calculating the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution time period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode simulation, and simultaneously simulating each pollutant in the atmosphere without the influence of chemical conversion and emission processes in the same time period along with the concentration value;
s4, calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, namely obtaining the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value, and realizing the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process.
Preferably, step S1 is specifically, determining the start and end time of the heavy pollution time period according to the observation data, establishing an XYZ spatial rectangular coordinate system for the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution generation process, wherein the X direction and the Y direction jointly form a horizontal plane, the Z direction is a vertical direction, setting a suitable horizontal resolution according to the size of the area to be analyzed in the horizontal direction, setting the number of grids in the X coordinate direction and the Y coordinate direction to be X and Y respectively and uniformly distributed, meshing the area to be analyzed to generate X × Y grids, dividing the atmosphere into Z layers in the vertical Z direction according to the analysis requirement, and finally completely dividing the area to be analyzed into X × Y × Z three-dimensional space grids.
Preferably, the meteorological element values include wind speed and temperature in a horizontal direction and air pressure and humidity.
Preferably, step S3 is not affected by the chemical conversion and discharge process, i.e. is affected only by physical processes, including specifically advection, turbulent diffusion, dry sedimentation, wet sedimentation and gravity sedimentation.
Preferably, in step S3, the third generation air quality model is based on the simulation calculation of the concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere by the air quality continuous equation,
wherein, CiIs the concentration value of the ith atmospheric pollutant; t is time; u, v and w are wind speed components in the directions of x, y and z respectively; kx,Ky,KzDiffusion coefficients in the warp direction, the weft direction and the vertical direction are respectively;
is the variation of the concentration value of the atmospheric pollutants;
are all advective conveying items;
are all diffusion terms; s is a pollutant emission source; p is a chemical conversion term; rdIs a dry sedimentation term; washA wet clean item; advection transport terms, diffusion terms, dry sedimentation terms, and wet clearance terms are physical process terms.
Preferably, the third generation air quality mode is used for simulating and calculating the normal concentration value of each pollutant of the atmosphere normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period, specifically, one hour is divided into n products and step length is calculated by using an air quality continuous equation, and the normal concentration value at the initial moment is recorded as C0The normal density value at the next time is denoted as C1Keeping the function of each item in the air quality continuous equation, and the normal concentration value at the initial momentC0Will change into the normal concentration value C of the next moment after being acted by the pollutant emission source S, the chemical conversion item P and the physical process item in the time period1And calculating the normal concentration value at the subsequent moment by analogy to obtain the normal concentration value C of each pollutant in the normally simulated atmospherei(i＝0,1,2,…,n)。
Preferably, the third generation air quality model is used for simulating and calculating the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere of the three-dimensional space grid, which is not influenced by the chemical conversion and discharge process in the heavy pollution time period, specifically, the accompanying concentration value C of each pollutant at the initial moment is not considered when calculating the accompanying concentration at the next moment by taking the pollutant discharge source S and the chemical conversion item P into account0The influence of' only retaining the physical process item, the accompanying concentration value C at the next moment can be obtained1'，C1' accompanying concentration value C with previous time0The variation of' can reflect the influence of physical processes on the concentration of pollutants; before calculating the accompanying concentration value at the third moment, the concentration value at the second moment obtained by normal simulation is taken as the initial accompanying concentration ColdOnly subjecting it to a physical process to obtain a concomitant concentration value C2', calculation of accompanying simulation needs to be performed simultaneously with the normal simulation process, and the accompanying density value C at the next time is calculated using the normal density value normally simulated at the previous time as the initial density value accompanying simulationi' calculating the concentration value at the subsequent moment by analogy to obtain the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere
Ci'(i＝0,1,2,…,n)。
Preferably, the concentration values in the normal simulation and the accompanying simulation are equal only at the first moment, i.e. C0＝C0'。
Preferably, in step S4, the time interval between the two previous and subsequent times may be one or more step lengths, which are k step lengths, and the amount of change between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the concomitant concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same time may be calculated by changing the time interval k, so as to implement quantitative analysis on different periods in the heavy pollution process.
The present invention also provides a quantitative analysis system for an atmospheric pollution process, the analysis system being used for implementing any one of the analysis methods described above, the analysis system comprising,
the grid construction module is used for determining the start and end time of a heavy pollution time period according to the observation data and constructing a three-dimensional space grid aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process;
a meteorological element value acquisition module; the method is used for simulating and obtaining hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by utilizing a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode;
a concentration value calculation module; the system is used for simulating and calculating the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere of the three-dimensional space grid normally simulated in the heavy pollution time period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode in combination with meteorological element values, and simultaneously simulating the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere which is not influenced by chemical conversion and emission processes in the same time period;
a quantitative analysis module; the method is used for calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, so that the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value can be obtained, and the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process is realized.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: 1. the quantitative analysis purpose is achieved by utilizing the air quality continuous equation in the air quality mode to influence each relevant process control variable of the pollutant through process analysis, and compared with the conventional source analysis mode which can only carry out time and space source analysis on the pollutant, the quantitative analysis on the chemical, emission and physical (meteorological) processes is realized. 2. Because the pollutant concentration in the atmosphere is a nonlinear system in fact, the meteorological process, the chemical conversion process and the emission process are not mutually independent, the method calculates in the precision of an integral step length, so that the error caused by the nonlinear coupling effect is very small, and the meteorological process, the chemical conversion process and the emission process can be ensured to be relatively independent. 3. The method has the advantages that the influence of physical (meteorological) process, chemical conversion and emission process on various pollutants in the atmosphere in one heavy pollution process is quantitatively analyzed, the quantitative analysis result of the meteorological, chemical conversion and emission process effect can be simultaneously output in the simulation or forecast process of the air quality, the calculation precision is high, the error is small, and the influence is only caused by mode errors; the method can be practically applied to the analysis of the heavy pollution process in autumn and winter of a typical city, is beneficial to quickly determining the cause and source of pollution, and plays an important role in the heavy pollution treatment of the city.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a parsing method in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a parsing method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Example one
As shown in fig. 1 to 2, in the present embodiment, there is provided a quantitative analysis method for an atmospheric pollution process, the analysis method includes the following steps,
s1, determining the start and end time of the heavy pollution time period according to the observation data, and constructing a three-dimensional space grid aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process;
s2, simulating by using a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode to obtain hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavily-polluted time period;
s3, combining the meteorological element values obtained in the step S2, calculating the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution time period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode simulation, and simultaneously simulating the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere which is not influenced by the chemical conversion and the emission process in the same time period;
s4, calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, namely obtaining the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value, and realizing the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process.
According to the air quality continuous equation, the process of influencing the concentration of various pollutants in the atmosphere mainly comprises three main types: the physical process is also called a meteorological process, such as advection, turbulent diffusion, dry sedimentation, wet sedimentation, gravity sedimentation and the like; second, chemical transformation, including photochemical reaction, liquid phase chemical reaction, heterogeneous chemical reaction, etc.; the third is the effect of direct emission of pollutants. In order to quantitatively analyze the action of the three factors on the pollutant concentration, accompanying calculation and process analysis are carried out in an air quality mode by utilizing the thought of control variables, and whether the emission and chemical action are added in the mode simulation process to separate the concentration change caused by the action of the chemical conversion and emission process from the concentration change caused by the meteorological physical process only is controlled. Therefore, the analytical method of the present invention specifically determines the time and region of the heavy pollution process based on observation (common observation data includes PM fine particulate matter in the atmosphere)2.5And coarse particulate matter PM10Etc.), distinguishing heavy pollution processes according to the national air quality index grading standard, and selecting typical heavy pollution process time intervals and cities or regions; according to the area, setting resolution ratio to the horizontal direction, layering the vertical direction and gridding the three-dimensional space; simulating necessary meteorological elements such as wind speed, temperature, air pressure, humidity and the like by utilizing a mesoscale meteorological model in the three-dimensional grid area and time period; applying the result to third-generation air quality mode simulation for mode simulation; finally, analyzing the effect of the physical process (meteorological process) and the chemical conversion and discharge process on the pollutant concentration by using a adjoint model.
In this embodiment, step S1 is specifically to determine the start and end time of the heavy pollution time period according to the observation data, establish an XYZ spatial rectangular coordinate system for the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process, where the X direction and the Y direction together form a horizontal plane, the Z direction is a vertical direction, set a suitable horizontal resolution according to the size of the area to be analyzed in the horizontal direction, set the number of grids in the X coordinate direction and the Y coordinate direction to be X and Y respectively and uniformly distributed, grid the area to be analyzed, generate X × Y grids, divide the atmosphere into Z layers in the vertical Z direction according to the analysis needs, and finally divide the area to be analyzed into X × Y × Z three-dimensional space grids.
In this embodiment, the meteorological element values include wind speed and temperature in the horizontal direction, and air pressure and humidity.
In this embodiment, step S3 is not affected by the chemical conversion and discharge process, i.e., is affected only by physical (meteorological) processes, including advection, turbulent diffusion, dry sedimentation, wet sedimentation, and gravity sedimentation.
In this embodiment, in step S3, the third generation air quality model is based on the simulation calculation of the concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere by using the air quality continuous equation,
wherein, CiIs the concentration value of the ith atmospheric pollutant; t is time; u, v and w are wind speed components in the directions of x, y and z respectively; kx,Ky,KzDiffusion coefficients in the warp direction, the weft direction and the vertical direction are respectively;
is the variation of the concentration value of the atmospheric pollutants;
are all advective conveying items;
are all diffusion terms; s is a pollutant emission source; p is a chemical conversion term; rdIs a dry sedimentation term; washA wet clean item; advection transport term, diffusion term, dry sedimentationBoth the term and the wet clean term are physical process terms.
In this embodiment, the third generation air quality model is used to calculate the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere of the three-dimensional space grid normally simulated in the heavy pollution period, specifically, an hour is divided into n integration steps and calculated by using an air quality continuous equation, and the normal concentration value at the initial time is recorded as C0The normal density value at the next time is denoted as C1Keeping the function of each item in the air quality continuous equation, and the normal concentration value C at the initial moment0Will change into the normal concentration value C of the next moment after being acted by the pollutant emission source S, the chemical conversion item P and the physical process item in the time period1And calculating the normal concentration value at the subsequent moment by analogy to obtain the normal concentration value C of each pollutant in the normally simulated atmospherei(i＝0,1,2,…,n)。
In this embodiment, a third-generation air quality model is used to calculate an incidental concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere of the three-dimensional space grid, which is not affected by the chemical conversion and emission process in the heavy pollution period, specifically, when calculating the incidental concentration at the next moment, the incidental concentration value C at the initial moment of the pollutant emission source S and the chemical conversion term P are not considered0' if only the physical process item is retained, the accompanying concentration value C at the next time can be obtained1'，C1' accompanying concentration value C with previous time0The variation of' can reflect the influence of physical processes on the concentration of pollutants; before calculating the accompanying concentration value at the third moment, the concentration value at the second moment obtained by normal simulation is taken as the initial accompanying concentration ColdOnly subjecting it to a physical process to obtain a concomitant concentration value C2', calculation of accompanying simulation needs to be performed simultaneously with the normal simulation process, and the value C of accompanying concentration at the next time is calculated using the normal concentration value normally simulated at the previous time as the initial concentration value accompanying simulationi' calculating the concentration value at the subsequent moment by analogy to obtain the accompanied concentration value C of each pollutant in the atmospherei'(i＝0,1,2,…,n)。
In this embodiment, the concentration values at only the first time in the normal simulation and the accompanying simulation are equal, i.e., C0＝C0'。
In this embodiment, in step S4, the time interval between the two previous and subsequent times may be one or more steps, which are k steps, and the amount of change between the concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere normally simulated at the same time and the value of each pollutant accompanying the atmosphere simulated at the same time can be calculated by changing the time interval k, so as to implement quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process.
In the embodiment, referring to fig. 2, two main routes are included, one is that by utilizing an air quality continuous process, the emission process, chemical conversion and the effect of meteorological elements on pollutant concentration are comprehensively considered, and the calculated result is basically close to the actual situation; and secondly, only considering the action of meteorological elements, not considering the influence of a discharge process and chemical conversion, and calculating to obtain the pollutant concentration only under the influence of the meteorological elements, wherein within the step length of each product, two sets of concentration data (the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the normally simulated atmosphere and the concomitant concentration value of each pollutant in the concomitantly simulated atmosphere) are simultaneously calculated and a difference value C is obtained, and after k step lengths (k is a positive integer) are accumulated by the difference value C, the actual influence of the chemical conversion and the discharge process on the pollutant concentration in the k step length time can be obtained by outputting the delta C, so that the quantitative analysis of the meteorology, chemistry and discharge in the heavy pollution process is realized.
In this example, the jingji area is taken as an example to explain the use process of the analysis method in detail:
taking the Jingjin Ji area as an example, the method analyzes the heavy pollution process from 11 months to 3 days to 7 days in 2017, and realizes the fine simulation and the physical and chemical coupling quantitative analysis of the whole process of the starting, outbreak and dissipation of the heavy pollution by the method. By developing a new chemical analysis algorithm acceleration method, the overall operation efficiency is improved, and the medium-long term forecast of 7-14 days is realized. The method for quantitatively analyzing the heavy pollution process is constructed by integrating the sensitivity simulation technology, the process quantitative analysis technology and the pollutant source tracking technology, and has the capability of quantitatively analyzing the heavy pollution process. 2017 year 1 was systematically evaluated using this techniqueThe heavy pollution process of 1 month, 3 days to 7 days gives out the meteorological condition change, meteorological-pollution coupling action, primary emission source and PM in the heavy pollution process by chemical conversion2.5The ratio of contribution of (c).
The specific calculation flow comprises the following steps:
(1) and selecting the area from 11 months and 3 days to 7 days of Jingjin Ji in 2017 as the starting and ending time and the implementation place for calculating the heavy pollution time period for implementing the analysis method according to the observation data. Aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process of the area, combining with a geographical administrative area, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province into a simulation area, setting the spatial resolution of a grid to be 5km, and constructing a three-dimensional spatial grid;
(2) setting a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode WRFv3.2 by using the three-dimensional space grid, and simulating to obtain hourly meteorological element values of 11, 3 and 7 days of severe pollution periods in 2017 in Jingjin Ji area;
(3) combining the meteorological element values obtained in the step (2), utilizing a third-generation air quality model NAQPMS to simulate and calculate various normally simulated atmospheric pollutants including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter PM in the severe pollution period of 11, 3 and 7 days in 2017 in Kyogji area2.5Normal concentration values of ozone and the like, and simultaneously simulating the accompanying concentration values of various atmospheric pollutants which are not influenced by the chemical conversion and discharge processes in the same time period;
(4) summing all 5km grid data of the Jingjin Ji area, respectively calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same time, so as to obtain the hourly contribution value of the influence of the chemical conversion and discharge process on the concentration value in the heavy pollution period of 11, 3 and 7 months in 2017 in the Jingjin Ji area, and finally obtaining the average quantitative analysis result in the whole heavy pollution period.
The results show that: during the period of serious pollution in autumn and winter of Jingjin Ji and surrounding areas, the contribution rate of pollutant emission to the PM2.5 concentration accumulation of the area in the current serious pollution process is about 86%, the contribution rate of meteorological condition change is less than 15%, and the contribution rate of pollution-meteorological coupling effect is less than 3%. The contribution rate of primary emission to PM2.5 concentration accumulation is 28% (the local emission contribution rate is 23%, and the regional transmission contribution rate is 5%); the secondary conversion contribution was 58% (zone transport contribution 45%, local conversion contribution 13%). Specifically in the heavy pollution process, the model gives the simulation results of three stages of initiation, accumulation and dissipation, wherein the initiation stage is dominated by adverse meteorological conditions and local emission contributions, the accumulation stage is dominated by regional chemical conversion contributions, and the dissipation stage is dominated by meteorological conditions.
Similarly, the 9 times of heavy pollution processes in autumn and winter in 2017 and 2019 are systematically evaluated, and the results show that in the heavy pollution processes in autumn and winter in Jingjin Ji and the surrounding areas, the contribution rate of pollutant emission to the regional PM2.5 accumulation is more than 70%, the average contribution rate of meteorological condition change is less than 25%, and the contribution rate of pollution-meteorological coupling effect is not more than 5%. Wherein, the contribution rate of the primary emission to PM2.5 accumulation is 13-30% (the local emission contribution rate is 10-25%, the regional transmission contribution rate is 1-6%), and the secondary conversion contribution rate is 49-68% (the regional transmission contribution rate is 25-53%, and the local conversion contribution rate is 11-27%).
Example two
The embodiment provides a quantitative analysis system for an atmospheric pollution process, which is used for realizing the analysis method and comprises,
the grid construction module is used for determining the start and end time of a heavy pollution time period according to the observation data and constructing a three-dimensional space grid aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process;
a meteorological element value acquisition module; the method is used for simulating and obtaining hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by utilizing a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode;
a concentration value calculation module; the system is used for simulating and calculating the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere of the three-dimensional space grid normally simulated in the heavy pollution time period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode in combination with meteorological element values, and simultaneously simulating the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere which is not influenced by chemical conversion and emission processes in the same time period;
a quantitative analysis module; the method is used for calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, so that the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value can be obtained, and the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process is realized.
The analysis system can automatically analyze the atmospheric pollution process, only relevant data are input into the analysis system, the analysis system calls a grid construction module to determine the starting and ending time of a heavy pollution period according to observation data, a three-dimensional space grid is constructed aiming at an area needing to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process, then a meteorological element acquisition module simulates an hourly meteorological element value of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by using a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode according to instructions, a concentration value calculation module combines the meteorological element values to simulate and calculate normal concentration values of various atmospheric pollutants normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by using a third-generation air quality mode, and simultaneously simulate various accompanying concentration values of the atmospheric pollutants which are not influenced by chemical conversion and emission processes in the same period, and finally, the quantitative analysis module calculates the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, so that the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value can be obtained, and the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process is realized.
By adopting the technical scheme disclosed by the invention, the following beneficial effects are obtained:
the invention provides a quantitative analysis method and a system for an atmospheric pollution process, which utilize an air quality continuous equation in an air quality mode to control variables of each relevant process influencing pollutants, achieve the purpose of quantitative analysis through process analysis, and realize the quantitative analysis of chemical, emission and physical (meteorological) processes compared with the prior source analysis mode which can only carry out time and space source analysis on the pollutants. Because the pollutant concentration in the atmosphere is a nonlinear system in fact, the meteorological process, the chemical conversion process and the emission process are not mutually independent, the method calculates in the precision of an integral step length, so that the error caused by the nonlinear coupling effect is very small, and the meteorological process, the chemical conversion process and the emission process can be ensured to be relatively independent. The method has the advantages that the influence of physical (meteorological) process, chemical conversion and emission process on various pollutants in the atmosphere in the primary heavy pollution process is quantitatively analyzed, the quantitative analysis results of the meteorological, chemical conversion and emission process effects can be simultaneously output in the air quality simulation or forecast process, the calculation precision is high, the error is small, and the method is only influenced by the mode error; the method can be practically applied to the analysis of the heavy pollution process in autumn and winter of a typical city, is beneficial to quickly determining the cause and source of pollution, and plays an important role in the heavy pollution treatment of the city.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that it is obvious to those skilled in the art that various modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and such modifications and improvements should be considered within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A quantitative analysis method for an atmospheric pollution process is characterized by comprising the following steps: the analysis method comprises the following steps of,
s1, determining the start and end time of the heavy pollution time period according to the observation data, and constructing a three-dimensional space grid aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process;
s2, simulating by using a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode to obtain hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period;
s3, combining the meteorological element values obtained in the step S2, calculating the normal concentration value of each atmospheric pollutant normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution time period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode simulation, and simultaneously simulating the accompanying concentration value of each atmospheric pollutant which is not influenced by chemical conversion and emission processes in the same time period;
s4, calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, namely obtaining the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value, and realizing the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 comprises determining the start and end times of the heavy pollution period according to the observation data, establishing an XYZ spatial rectangular coordinate system for the area to be analyzed during the occurrence of the heavy pollution, wherein the X-direction and the Y-direction form a horizontal plane, the Z-direction is a vertical direction, setting a horizontal resolution according to the size of the area to be analyzed in the horizontal direction, setting the grid numbers in the X-coordinate direction and the Y-coordinate direction as X and Y respectively and uniformly distributed, meshing the area to be analyzed to generate X × Y grids, dividing the atmosphere into Z layers according to the analysis requirement in the vertical Z-direction, and finally dividing the area to be analyzed into X × Y × Z three-dimensional grids.
3. A method for quantitative analysis of atmospheric pollution processes as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: the meteorological element values include wind speed and temperature in the horizontal direction and air pressure and humidity.
4. A method for quantitative analysis of atmospheric pollution processes as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: step S3 is not affected by the chemical conversion and discharge process, i.e., is affected only by physical processes, specifically including advection, turbulent diffusion, dry sedimentation, wet sedimentation, and gravity sedimentation.
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the method further comprises: in step S3, the third generation air quality model is based on the air quality continuous equation to calculate the concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere,
wherein, CiIs the concentration value of the ith atmospheric pollutant; t is time; u, v and w are wind speed components in the directions of x, y and z respectively; kx,Ky,KzDiffusion coefficients in the warp direction, the weft direction and the vertical direction are respectively;
is the variation of the concentration value of the atmospheric pollutant;
are all advective conveying items;
are all diffusion terms; s is a pollutant emission source; p is a chemical conversion term; rdIs a dry sedimentation term; washA wet clean item; the advection transport term, diffusion term, dry sedimentation term and wet removal term are all physical process terms.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the method further comprises: and (3) utilizing a third-generation air quality mode to simulate and calculate the normal concentration value of each atmospheric pollutant normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period, specifically, dividing one hour into n integral step lengths and utilizing an air quality continuous equation to calculate, and recording the normal concentration value at the initial moment as C0The normal density value at the next time is denoted as C1Keeping the function of each item in the air quality continuous equation, and the normal concentration value C at the initial moment0Will change into the normal concentration value C of the next moment after being acted by the pollutant emission source S, the chemical conversion item P and the physical process item in the time period1And calculating the normal concentration value at the subsequent moment by analogy to obtain the normal simulated normal atmosphere pollutantsConcentration value Ci(i＝0,1,2,…,n)。
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the method further comprises: calculating the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant of the atmosphere, which is not influenced by the chemical conversion and emission process, of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by utilizing a third-generation air quality model simulation, specifically, not considering the pollutant emission source S and the chemical conversion item P to the accompanying concentration value C at the initial moment when calculating the accompanying concentration at the next moment0The influence of' only retaining the physical process item, the accompanying concentration value C at the next time can be obtained1'，C1' accompanying concentration value C with previous time0The variation of' can reflect the influence of physical processes on the concentration of pollutants; before calculating the accompanying concentration value at the third moment, the concentration value at the second moment obtained by normal simulation is taken as the initial accompanying concentration ColdOnly subjecting it to a physical process to obtain a concomitant concentration value C2', calculation of accompanying simulation needs to be performed simultaneously with the normal simulation process, and the accompanying density value C at the next time is calculated using the normal density value normally simulated at the previous time as the initial density value accompanying simulationi' calculating the concentration value at the subsequent moment by analogy to obtain the accompanied concentration value C of each pollutant in the atmospherei'(i＝0,1,2,…,n)。
8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the method further comprises: the concentration values in the normal simulation and the accompanying simulation are equal only at the first moment, i.e. C0＝C0'。
9. The method according to claim 8, wherein the method further comprises: in step S4, the time interval between the two previous and subsequent times may be one or more step lengths, which are set as k step lengths, and the amount of change between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the concomitant concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same time may be calculated by changing the time interval k, so as to implement quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process.
10. A quantitative analysis system for an atmospheric pollution process, the analysis system being adapted to implement the analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein: the resolution system comprises a resolution module, a first resolution module and a second resolution module,
the grid construction module is used for determining the start and end time of a heavy pollution time period according to the observation data and constructing a three-dimensional space grid aiming at the area to be analyzed in the heavy pollution process;
a meteorological element value acquisition module; the method is used for simulating and obtaining hourly meteorological element values of the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution period by utilizing a mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode;
a concentration value calculation module; the system is used for simulating and calculating normal concentration values of various atmospheric pollutants normally simulated by the three-dimensional space grid in the heavy pollution time period by utilizing a third-generation air quality mode in combination with meteorological element values, and simultaneously simulating accompanying concentration values of various atmospheric pollutants which are not influenced by chemical conversion and emission processes in the same time period;
a quantitative analysis module; the method is used for calculating the variation between the normal concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere and the accompanying concentration value of each pollutant in the atmosphere at the same moment, so that the variation range of the influence of the chemical conversion and emission process on the concentration value can be obtained, and the quantitative analysis of different periods in the heavy pollution process is realized.
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