CN111428983A - Foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment method, device and system - Google Patents

Foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment method, device and system Download PDF

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CN111428983A
CN111428983A CN202010192338.7A CN202010192338A CN111428983A CN 111428983 A CN111428983 A CN 111428983A CN 202010192338 A CN202010192338 A CN 202010192338A CN 111428983 A CN111428983 A CN 111428983A
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吴绍强
仇松寅
刘晓飞
王勤
林祥梅
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Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine CAIQ
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Abstract

The disclosure relates to a foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment method, device and system. According to the technical scheme, the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk is evaluated by adopting a hierarchical analysis algorithm, the research field of a user for evaluation and the familiarity of the research field are considered in the evaluation process, the user in the appropriate research field is selected for evaluation according to the attribute information of the epidemic disease, and the familiarity of the research field related to the epidemic disease is quantified, so that the assignment of different users has different weights to the evaluation result according to the different familiarity values in the research field related to the epidemic disease. Therefore, compared with the conventional hierarchical analysis algorithm for evaluation, the technical scheme provided by the disclosure can evaluate the risk of the foreign livestock and poultry diseases more reasonably and accurately.

Description

Foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment method, device and system
Technical Field
The disclosure relates to the technical field of livestock and poultry epidemic diseases, in particular to a method, a device and a system for evaluating risks of foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases.
Background
With the development of the international trade of livestock and poultry, the risk assessment of foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases (infectious diseases) is carried out more accurately, so that related personnel can take prevention and control measures in advance, and the important significance is achieved for ensuring the development of animal husbandry, the safety of lives and properties of people and the stable development of national economy.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the present disclosure is to provide a method, a device and a system for risk assessment of foreign livestock and poultry diseases, so as to solve the problem of more accurately performing risk assessment on foreign livestock and poultry diseases.
In order to achieve the above object, the present disclosure provides a method for evaluating a risk of an exotic livestock and poultry epidemic disease, the method comprising:
obtaining at least one research area of a user and a familiarity degree value for each of the research areas;
selecting an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and sending an assignment request to at least one first target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the assignment request is used for requesting the first target user to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, obtaining the risk scores of the epidemic diseases and generating a risk evaluation report of the epidemic diseases according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic diseases.
Optionally, after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, the step of obtaining the risk score of the epidemic disease according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor, and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease includes:
after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, summing the familiarity degree values of all the first target users to obtain a familiarity degree value sum;
taking the quotient of the familiarity degree value and the familiarity degree value sum of the research field related to the epidemic disease of each first target user as the weight of each first target user;
calculating a preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor;
and weighting the weight of each first target user and the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
Optionally, the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is determined as follows:
sending a comparison request to at least one second target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the comparison request is used for requesting the second target user to compare the importance of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model so as to obtain the comparison score of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
establishing a judgment matrix according to the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model made by each second target user, and calculating the preliminary weight value of each lowest level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user;
and obtaining the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user and the familiarity degree value of each second target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
Optionally, the epidemic disease is bluetongue, and the step of selecting the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the epidemic disease attribute information includes:
selecting the bluetongue disease transmission risk as a target layer;
selecting epidemic disease conditions, an export state veterinarian management system, an export state animal health control system, export state breeding management and export state processing slaughter management as first-level risk factors;
selecting etiology characteristics, epidemic situation of export countries, epidemiological characteristics, vector biology, diagnosis and prevention as secondary risk factors of the epidemic situation, and selecting organization architecture, legislation, execution capacity, human resources and expenditure budget of a mechanism as the secondary risk factors of the management system of the export countries veterinarian; selecting epidemic disease notification, an early warning system and an emergency plan, a monitoring plan making and implementing effect, regional management and effect, a laboratory system and detection capability, animal and product tracing and transportation control, entry and exit quarantine management and border control as a secondary risk factor of an export animal health control system; selecting culture scale and mode and epidemic disease daily prevention and control measures as second-level risk factors for export country culture management; slaughter processing capacity, animal in-and-out management and HACCP system operation are selected as secondary risk factors for export country processing slaughter management.
The embodiment of the present disclosure further provides an external livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment device, the device includes:
a profile module configured to obtain at least one research area of a user and a familiarity value for each of the research areas;
the risk scoring module is configured to select an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and send an assignment request to at least one first target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the assignment request is used for requesting the first target user to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
and the risk evaluation report generation module is configured to obtain a risk score of the epidemic disease and generate a risk evaluation report of the epidemic disease according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users.
The embodiment of the disclosure further provides an external livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment system, which comprises a management end, a cloud platform, a database and a plurality of user ends, wherein the management end, the database and each user end are connected with the cloud platform, each user end comprises a personal data module and a risk assessment module, and the management end comprises a task issuing module and a risk assessment report generating module;
the personal data module is configured to obtain at least one research field of a user and familiarity degree values of each research field and store the familiarity degree values to the database;
the task issuing module is configured to select an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and send an assignment request to at least one first target user side according to the research field of the user of each user side, and is used for requesting the user of the first target user side to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
the risk scoring module of the first target user side, which receives the assignment request, is configured to obtain the assignment of the user of the first target user side to the lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and store the assignment to the database;
the risk assessment report generation module is configured to send a report generation instruction to the cloud platform so as to control the cloud platform to obtain, from the database, a weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, an assignment of each target client to the lowest-level risk factor, and a familiarity value of a user of the target client in a research field related to the epidemic disease, to calculate a risk score of the epidemic disease and to generate a risk assessment report of the epidemic disease.
Optionally, the management end further includes a hierarchical structure modeling module, and the user end further includes a factor weight module;
the hierarchical structure modeling module is configured to establish at least one epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and store the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model in a database, wherein the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model comprises at least two levels of risk factors;
the task issuing module is further configured to send a comparison request to at least one second target user side according to the research field of the user of each user side aiming at each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model established by the hierarchical structure modeling module, and the comparison request is used for requesting the user of the second target user side to compare the importance of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
the factor weight module of the second target user side, which receives the comparison request, is configured to obtain the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and send the comparison score to a server;
the server is further configured to establish a judgment matrix for each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to all the comparison scores sent by the factor weight module of each second target user side, so as to calculate a preliminary weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user side, obtain a weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model by combining the familiarity degree value of the user of each second target user side and the research field related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, and store the weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model to the database.
Optionally, the management end further includes an expert information management module, and the expert information management module is configured to view research fields of users of the plurality of user ends, and group the users of the plurality of user ends according to the research fields.
Embodiments of the present disclosure also provide a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which when executed by a processor implements the steps of the above-described method.
An embodiment of the present disclosure further provides an electronic device, including:
a memory having a computer program stored thereon;
a processor for executing the computer program in the memory to implement the steps of the above method.
Through the technical scheme, when the risk assessment of the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases is carried out, the research field of a user (expert) for assessment and the familiarity of the research field are considered, the user (expert) in the appropriate research field is selected for assessment according to the attribute information of the epidemic diseases, and the familiarity of the research field related to the epidemic diseases is quantified during the assessment, so that the assignment of different users (experts) has different weights (influences) on assessment results according to the difference of familiarity values (of the research field related to the epidemic diseases). Therefore, compared with the conventional hierarchical analysis algorithm for evaluation, the technical scheme provided by the disclosure can evaluate the risk of the foreign livestock and poultry diseases more reasonably and accurately.
Additional features and advantages of the disclosure will be set forth in the detailed description which follows.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the disclosure and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the disclosure and together with the description serve to explain the disclosure without limiting the disclosure. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of a foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment method provided by the embodiment of the disclosure.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model of bluetongue disease according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Fig. 3 is a block diagram of an external livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment device provided by the embodiment of the disclosure.
Fig. 4 is a block diagram of a foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment system provided by the embodiment of the disclosure.
Fig. 5 is a block diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of specific embodiments of the present disclosure is provided in connection with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the present disclosure, are given by way of illustration and explanation only, not limitation.
The embodiment of the disclosure provides a foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment method. Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating a foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the steps of:
step S11, at least one research area of the user and a familiarity degree value of each research area are obtained.
Wherein the users are experts (meaning specialized research or specialties in academic, technical, etc.), each user may have multiple research areas, for example, 5, and the depth of each research area may be quantified by a familiarity degree value, for example, a range of the familiarity degree value may be expressed by a percentage (for example, 1% -100%), and the like. Through step S11, the research field of each user (expert) and the familiarity degree value of each of the research fields can be obtained.
Step S12, selecting an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and sending an assignment request to at least one first target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the assignment request is used for requesting the first target user to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
The epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is a hierarchical structure model suitable for an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) algorithm, as the name suggests. For example, the structure of the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is a target layer, a primary risk factor and a secondary risk factor. Wherein the target layer represents the overall functionality of the task, depending on the nature of the problem and the overall goal to be achieved. For example, a disease hierarchical analysis model aims to analyze a disease afferent risk, and the target layer can be a disease afferent risk. The target is decomposed into different composition (influence) factors, and the factors are aggregated and combined according to different levels according to the interrelation and membership among the factors to construct a primary risk factor and a secondary risk factor. The secondary risk factors belong to the primary risk factors, the primary risk factors and the secondary risk factors can be multiple, in order to prevent the number of user (expert) assignments from being too large, sparse linking is used, namely not all the primary risk factors are associated with the secondary risk factors, and each secondary risk factor is only linked with one possibly associated secondary risk factor. For example, in one embodiment, each secondary risk factor is linked (associated) with one primary risk factor, and each primary risk factor may be associated with multiple secondary risk factors. The epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model can be pre-stored and is provided with a plurality of epidemic disease hierarchical analysis models, and each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is suitable for different epidemic disease types. Wherein, the lowest level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is the lowest level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model as the name implies. For example, when the structure of the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is a target layer, a primary risk factor and a secondary risk factor, the lowest level risk factor is the secondary risk factor. Through the step S12, the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model suitable for the epidemic disease is selected according to the epidemic disease attribute information, and the first appropriate target user (expert) is selected according to the research field of the user (expert) to assign the value to the lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
And step S13, after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, obtaining the risk scores of the epidemic diseases and generating a risk evaluation report of the epidemic diseases according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic diseases.
The weight value of each risk factor in each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model can be pre-stored, and when each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is established, the weight value of each risk factor in each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is obtained through calculation. The weight value of each risk factor in each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model can be kept unchanged in a certain period. When each first target user assigns the lowest-level risk factor, the first target user can refer to research data related to the epidemic and the lowest-level risk factor, and since the research data is in the recent period (which may be 1 month, several months, 1 year or several years, etc.), the assignment of each lowest-level risk factor in each epidemic hierarchical analysis model is easy to change with time. The familiarity degree value of the first target user with the epidemic-related research field is used for quantifying the credibility of the first target user for the lowest-level risk factor assignment. And for a plurality of first target users, performing weighting processing on the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease. The risk assessment report may include, but is not limited to, information of each first target user (expert name, title, research area, familiarity degree value of the research area related to epidemic diseases, etc.), an epidemic hierarchical analysis model structure (excluding assignment and weight of risk factors), a weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic hierarchical analysis model, assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and familiarity degree value of the first target user with the research area related to epidemic diseases, a preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user calculated (when the first target user does not assign each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic hierarchical analysis model, but assigns only a part of the lowest-level risk factors in the model, for example, assigns only a plurality of secondary risk factors under a certain level of risk factors, the calculated preliminary risk scores of the plurality of secondary risk factors determined by the first target user), and the risk scores of the epidemic determined by all the first target users. It will be apparent that the risk assessment report may include more or less of the above, and is not limited herein.
Through the technical scheme, when the risk assessment of the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases is carried out, the research field of a user (expert) for assessment and the familiarity of the research field are considered, the user (expert) in the appropriate research field is selected for assessment according to the attribute information of the epidemic diseases, and the familiarity of the research field related to the epidemic diseases is quantified during the assessment, so that the assignment of different users (experts) has different weights (influences) on assessment results according to the difference of familiarity values (of the research field related to the epidemic diseases). Therefore, compared with the conventional hierarchical analysis algorithm for evaluation, the technical scheme provided by the disclosure can evaluate the risk of the foreign livestock and poultry diseases more reasonably and accurately.
Optionally, in an embodiment, the epidemic disease is bluetongue, and the step of selecting the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the epidemic disease attribute information includes:
the bluetongue afferent risk was selected as the target layer. Epidemic disease conditions, an export state veterinarian management system, an export state animal health control system, an export state breeding management and an export state processing slaughter management are selected as first-level risk factors. Selecting etiology characteristics, epidemic situation of export countries, epidemiological characteristics, vector biology, diagnosis and prevention as secondary risk factors of the epidemic situation, and selecting organization architecture, legislation, execution capacity, human resources and expenditure budget of a mechanism as the secondary risk factors of the management system of the export countries veterinarian; selecting epidemic disease notification, an early warning system and an emergency plan, a monitoring plan making and implementing effect, regional management and effect, a laboratory system and detection capability, animal and product tracing and transportation control, entry and exit quarantine management and border control as a secondary risk factor of an export animal health control system; selecting culture scale and mode and epidemic disease daily prevention and control measures as second-level risk factors for export country culture management; slaughter processing capacity, animal in-and-out management and HACCP system operation are selected as secondary risk factors for export country processing slaughter management. And finally establishing a epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model as shown in figure 2.
In fig. 2, etiological characteristics, the secondary risk factor, mainly describes the etiological characteristic information of bluetongue, and mainly includes the virus resistance to the environment and effective inactivation conditions. The epidemic situation of the export country, the secondary risk factor mainly describes the epidemic situation of the export country blue tongue disease, the occurrence and epidemic situation of the blue tongue disease in the country and detailed data of the epidemic situation of the past year. Epidemiological characteristics, the secondary risk factor mainly describes the epidemiological characteristics of bluetongue, and mainly comprises an infection source, a main transmission path, susceptible animals and animal products with possible virus. And the secondary risk factor mainly describes the influence of the vector organisms on the blue tongue disease transmission, and comprises vector organism types, geographical distribution, life history and the like. Since the vector organisms only contribute to the spread of a partial vector animal epidemic, this secondary risk factor may not be present in risk assessment models for other partial epidemics. Diagnosis and prevention, the secondary risk factor mainly describes the main diagnosis technology and prevention measures of bluetongue and the latest research progress thereof. An organizational structure, the secondary risk factor describing primarily an organizational structure of an export national animal health regulatory agency. Legislation and executive capacity, the secondary risk factor mainly describing relevant laws and regulations for animal hygiene in export countries and executive capacity. Human resources, which secondary risk factors primarily describe animal health professional human resource reserves in export countries, places and related enterprises. A budget for expenses, the secondary risk factor primarily describing animal hygiene budgets for export countries, places and related enterprises. Epidemic disease reporting, the secondary risk factor mainly describes the epidemic situation reporting system and situation of animal epidemic diseases in export countries. The early warning system and the emergency plan, the secondary risk factor mainly describes the construction of the early warning system for epidemic diseases of animals in export countries and the emergency plan after epidemic situations occur. The monitoring plan making and implementation effect, and the secondary risk factor mainly describes the making and implementation conditions of the monitoring plan for the bluetongue in export countries. The second-level risk factor mainly describes an animal sanitation regionalization management system and implementation effect set by export countries for bluetongue. Because only part of epidemic diseases adopt regional management strategies in part of countries at present, the factor may not appear in risk assessment models of other part of epidemic diseases. The secondary risk factor mainly describes the number and detection capability of veterinarian diagnosis laboratories of various levels aiming at bluetongue in export countries. Animal and product tracing and transportation control, wherein the secondary risk factor mainly describes a living animal and related animal product tracing system of an export country and the domestic transportation management and control condition of animals. The second-level risk factor mainly describes the inspection and quarantine management system of the export animal and animal products and the control situation of the border of the wild animal. The scale and mode of breeding, and the secondary risk factor mainly describes the scale condition and basic mode (such as concentrated feeding/grazing/concentrated fattening and the like) of animal breeding in export countries. The secondary risk factor mainly describes epidemic disease prevention and control system and measures of breeding enterprises which intend to export animals in China. The secondary risk factor mainly describes the slaughter processing capability of enterprises intending to export products to China and a pre-slaughter and post-slaughter quarantine system. And (3) managing the entrance and exit of animals, wherein the secondary risk factor mainly describes an animal entrance and exit management system and a biological safety system of enterprises which are going to export products in China. And the secondary risk factor mainly describes the construction and operation conditions of the HACCP system of the enterprise which is going to export products in China. Among them, HACCP, Hazard Analysis and clinical Control Point, is the Critical Control Point for Hazard Analysis.
The model is only used for analyzing the bluetongue disease and is not suitable for risk assessment of other foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases. When the specific animal epidemic disease incoming risk assessment of a specific product is carried out, relevant factors are increased in a targeted manner, for example, when the incoming risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease is carried out, the use and immunization strategy of a second-level risk factor vaccine is newly added at the level of a first-level risk factor export animal health control system; when risk evaluation of introducing avian-derived feed raw materials into avian influenza is carried out, a processing technology of a secondary risk factor is newly added under the processing and slaughtering management level of a primary risk factor export country.
When each first target user assigns a value to each lowest-level risk factor in the hierarchical analysis model for epidemic diseases, and the familiarity degree value of any first target user in the research field related to epidemic diseases is unchanged for each lowest-level risk factor in the hierarchical analysis model for epidemic diseases, optionally, after receiving assignment responses returned by all first target users in step S13, obtaining the risk score for epidemic diseases according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the hierarchical analysis model for epidemic diseases, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor, and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to epidemic diseases includes:
and after receiving the assignment responses returned by all the first target users, summing the familiarity degree values of all the first target users to obtain a familiarity degree value sum.
And taking the quotient of the familiarity degree value and the familiarity degree value sum of the research field related to the epidemic disease of each first target user as the weight of each first target user.
Each first target user only adopts one familiarity degree value when carrying out evaluation calculation, and each first target user assigns a value to each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model. Thus, for a first target user, the quotient of the familiarity degree value of the first target user and the sum of the familiarity degree values of all first target users may represent the assigned weight of the first target user.
And calculating the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor.
According to a hierarchical analysis algorithm, the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user is equal to the sum of products of the weighted value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor.
And weighting the weight of each first target user and the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
The above-described technical solution will be described by taking fig. 2 as an example. Suppose that for bluetongue, 3 epidemic disease hierarchical analysis models shown in figure 2 are adopted, andthe first target user assigns a value to each secondary risk factor (lowest risk factor) in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the familiarity degree values of the 3 first target users and the bluetongue related research field are respectively 70%, 80% and 90%, and then the weights assigned by the 3 first target users are respectively 70%, 80% and 90%
Figure BDA0002416367880000121
About 0.29, 0.33, 0.38; the 3 first target users determined the preliminary risk scores for the disease as 75, 79 and 82, respectively, and the risk score for the disease as 75 × 0.29+79 × 0.33+82 × 0.38 ═ 78.98.
In other embodiments, there may be instances where each or some of the first target users assign values to only a portion of the lowest level risk factors within the model, for example, for the disease stratification model shown in fig. 2, some of the first target users assign values to only all of the second level risk factors under the veterinary regulatory system of the export country of the first level risk factors. In other embodiments, there may be a first target user with different familiarity values for different related areas with the lowest level risk factor, for example, for a first target user, the disease hierarchical analysis model shown in fig. 2 has a familiarity value for 75% for related areas with a first level risk factor epidemic situation and a familiarity value for 80% for related areas with a first level risk factor export veterinary regulatory system. For the above situation, after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users in step S13, obtaining the risk score of the epidemic disease according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor, and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease includes:
and for each lowest-level risk factor, after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, summing the familiarity degree values of all the first target users and the research fields related to the lowest-level risk factor to obtain a familiarity degree value sum, and taking the quotient of the familiarity degree value and the familiarity degree value sum of each first target user and the research fields related to the lowest-level risk factor as the weight of each first target user for assigning the lowest-level risk factor.
And for each lowest-level risk factor, calculating the value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the weight of each first target user for the lowest-level risk factor, the value of the first target user for the lowest-level risk factor and the weight of the lowest-level risk factor.
And summing the values of all the risk factors at the lowest level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
Assuming that a epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model comprises two primary risk factors of an epidemic disease situation and an export veterinarian management system and a plurality of secondary risk factors under the two primary risk factors, A, B, C3 first target users assign the secondary risk factors under the epidemic disease situation of the primary risk factors, and the familiarity degree values of A, B, C3 first target users and the research fields related to the secondary risk factors under the epidemic disease situation are respectively 70%, 80% and 90%, the weight of each assignment of the 3 first target users to each secondary risk factor under the epidemic disease situation is respectively 70%, 80% and 90%
Figure BDA0002416367880000141
Figure BDA0002416367880000142
For each secondary risk factor under the epidemic disease condition, according to the product of the weight of the secondary risk factor, the weight assigned to the secondary risk factor by A and the assignment assigned to the secondary risk factor by A, the product of the weight of the secondary risk factor, the weight assigned to the secondary risk factor by B and the assignment assigned to the secondary risk factor by B, and the product of the weight of the secondary risk factor, the weight assigned to the secondary risk factor by C and the assignment assigned to the secondary risk factor by C, the average value of the three products can obtain the value of the secondary risk factor; is provided withB. C, D3 first target users assign the first-level risk factors to the second-level risk factors under the export veterinary management system, and the familiarity degree values of B, C, D3 first target users in the research fields related to the second-level risk factors under the export veterinary management system are 70%, 85% and 90% respectively, so that the weights of the 3 first target users for each second-level risk factor assignment under the export veterinary management system are 70%, 85% and 90% respectively
Figure BDA0002416367880000143
For each secondary risk factor under the veterinarian management system of the export country, according to the product of the weight of the secondary risk factor, the weight assigned to the secondary risk factor by B and the assignment to the secondary risk factor by B, the product of the weight of the secondary risk factor, the weight assigned to the secondary risk factor by C and the assignment to the secondary risk factor by C, and the product of the weight of the secondary risk factor, the weight assigned to the secondary risk factor by D and the assignment to the secondary risk factor by D, the average value of the three products can obtain the value of the secondary risk factor; and summing the values of all secondary risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
Optionally, the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is determined as follows:
and sending a comparison request to at least one second target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the comparison request is used for requesting the second target user to compare the importance of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model so as to obtain the comparison score of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
For the same epidemic disease layer side analysis model, the second target user receiving the comparison request is also an expert, which may be the same as or different from the first target user receiving the assignment request, and is not limited herein. The comparison scores may include 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 2, 4, 6, 8, 1/2, 1/4, 1/6, 1/8. Wherein 1 indicates that the two risk factors compared are equally important; 3 indicates that the former is slightly more important than the latter for the two risk factors compared; 5 indicates that the former is more important than the latter for the two risk factors compared; 7 indicates that the former is significantly more important than the latter for the two risk factors compared; 9 indicates that the former is absolutely more important than the latter for the two risk factors being compared; 1/3, 1/5, 1/7 and 1/9 are of opposite importance to those indicated at 3, 5, 7 and 9, respectively; 2. 4, 6 and 8 are between the standards of 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9; 1/2, 1/4, 1/6, 1/8 are of opposite importance to those indicated at 2, 4, 6, 8, respectively.
And establishing a judgment matrix according to the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model made by each second target user, and calculating the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user.
It should be noted that, by the above manner, not only the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user can be obtained, but also the preliminary weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user can be obtained.
And obtaining the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user and the familiarity degree value of each second target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
Similarly, the weight (reliability) of the preliminary weight value of the lowest-level risk factor determined by each second target user is calculated according to the familiarity degree value, and then the preliminary weight values of the lowest-level risk factors determined by the plurality of second target users and the weight of the preliminary weight value are subjected to weighting processing, so that the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model can be obtained.
Based on the inventive concept, the embodiment of the present disclosure further provides an external livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment device 10. As shown in fig. 3, the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment apparatus 10 includes:
a profile module 11 configured to obtain at least one research area of a user and a familiarity value for each of the research areas.
And the risk scoring module 12 is configured to select an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and send an assignment request to at least one first target user according to the research field of each user, so as to request the first target user to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
And the risk assessment report generating module 13 is configured to, after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, obtain risk scores of the epidemic diseases and generate a risk assessment report of the epidemic diseases according to a weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, an assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor, and a familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic diseases.
Through the technical scheme, when the risk assessment of the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases is carried out, the research field of a user (expert) for assessment and the familiarity of the research field are considered, the user (expert) in the appropriate research field is selected for assessment according to the attribute information of the epidemic diseases, and the familiarity of the research field related to the epidemic diseases is quantified during the assessment, so that the assignment of different users (experts) has different weights (influences) on assessment results according to the difference of familiarity values (of the research field related to the epidemic diseases). Therefore, compared with the conventional hierarchical analysis algorithm for evaluation, the technical scheme provided by the disclosure can evaluate the risk of the foreign livestock and poultry diseases more reasonably and accurately.
Optionally, in an embodiment, the epidemic disease is bluetongue, and the structure of the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model selected according to the epidemic disease attribute information is shown in fig. 2. When the specific animal epidemic disease incoming risk assessment of a specific product is carried out, relevant factors are increased in a targeted manner, for example, when the incoming risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease is carried out, the use and immunization strategy of a second-level risk factor vaccine is newly added at the level of a first-level risk factor export animal health control system; when risk evaluation of introducing avian-derived feed raw materials into avian influenza is carried out, a processing technology of a secondary risk factor is newly added under the processing and slaughtering management level of a primary risk factor export country.
When each first target user assigns a value to each lowest-level risk factor in the hierarchical analysis model of epidemic diseases, and the familiarity degree value of any first target user in the research field related to the epidemic diseases is unchanged for each lowest-level risk factor in the hierarchical analysis model of epidemic diseases, optionally, the risk assessment report generating module 13 is specifically configured to:
and after receiving the assignment responses returned by all the first target users, summing the familiarity degree values of all the first target users to obtain a familiarity degree value sum.
And taking the quotient of the familiarity degree value and the familiarity degree value sum of the research field related to the epidemic disease of each first target user as the weight of each first target user.
And calculating the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor.
And weighting the weight of each first target user and the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
In other embodiments, there may be instances where each or some of the first target users assign values to only a portion of the lowest level risk factors within the model, for example, for the disease stratification model shown in fig. 2, some of the first target users assign values to only all of the second level risk factors under the veterinary regulatory system of the export country of the first level risk factors. In other embodiments, there may be a first target user with different familiarity values for different related areas with the lowest level risk factor, for example, for a first target user, the disease hierarchical analysis model shown in fig. 2 has a familiarity value for 75% for related areas with a first level risk factor epidemic situation and a familiarity value for 80% for related areas with a first level risk factor export veterinary regulatory system. For the above case, optionally, the risk assessment report generating module 13 is specifically configured to:
and for each lowest-level risk factor, after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, summing the familiarity degree values of all the first target users and the research fields related to the lowest-level risk factor to obtain a familiarity degree value sum, and taking the quotient of the familiarity degree value and the familiarity degree value sum of each first target user and the research fields related to the lowest-level risk factor as the weight of each first target user for assigning the lowest-level risk factor.
And for each lowest-level risk factor, calculating the value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the weight of each first target user for the lowest-level risk factor, the value of the first target user for the lowest-level risk factor and the weight of the lowest-level risk factor.
And summing the values of all the risk factors at the lowest level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
Optionally, the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model is determined as follows:
and sending a comparison request to at least one second target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the comparison request is used for requesting the second target user to compare the importance of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model so as to obtain the comparison score of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
And establishing a judgment matrix according to the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model made by each second target user, and calculating the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user.
And obtaining the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user and the familiarity degree value of each second target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
With regard to the apparatus in the above-described embodiment, the specific manner in which each module performs the operation has been described in detail in the embodiment related to the method, and will not be elaborated here.
Based on the inventive concept, the embodiment of the disclosure also provides an external livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment system. As shown in fig. 4, the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment system includes a management terminal 1, a cloud platform 2, a database 3, and a plurality of user terminals 4. The management end 1, the database 3 and each user end 4 are connected with the cloud platform 2. The user terminal 4 comprises a personal data module and an insurance scoring module. The management terminal 1 comprises a task issuing module and a risk assessment report generating module.
The profile module is configured to obtain at least one research area of the user and a familiarity value for each of the research areas and store the familiarity values in the database 3.
Optionally, the profile module is further configured to obtain user profile information including expert names, titles, stories, and the like.
The task issuing module is configured to select an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and send an assignment request to at least one first target user side 4 according to each research field of users of the user sides 4, and the assignment request is used for requesting the users of the first target user sides 4 to assign the lowest-level risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
The risk scoring module of the first target user terminal 4 that receives the assignment request is configured to obtain the assignment of the user of the first target user terminal 4 to the lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and store the assignment to the database 3.
The risk assessment report generation module is configured to send a report generation instruction to the cloud platform 2, so as to control the cloud platform 2 to obtain, from the database 3, a weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, an assignment of each target client to the lowest-level risk factor, and a familiarity value of a user of the target client in the research field related to the epidemic disease, to calculate a risk score of the epidemic disease, and to generate a risk assessment report of the epidemic disease.
Through the technical scheme, when the risk assessment of the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic diseases is carried out, the research field of a user (expert) for assessment and the familiarity of the research field are considered, the user (expert) in the appropriate research field is selected for assessment according to the attribute information of the epidemic diseases, and the familiarity of the research field related to the epidemic diseases is quantified during the assessment, so that the assignment of different users (experts) has different weights (influences) on assessment results according to the difference of familiarity values (of the research field related to the epidemic diseases). Therefore, compared with the conventional hierarchical analysis algorithm for evaluation, the technical scheme provided by the disclosure can evaluate the risk of the foreign livestock and poultry diseases more reasonably and accurately.
Optionally, the management terminal 1 further includes a hierarchical structure modeling module. The user terminal 4 further comprises a factor weight module.
The hierarchical structure modeling module is configured to establish at least one epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and store the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model in the database 3, wherein the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model comprises at least two levels of risk factors.
The task issuing module is further configured to send a comparison request to at least one second target user side 4 according to each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model established by the hierarchical structure modeling module and according to each research field of the user side 4, the comparison request is used for requesting the user of the second target user side 4 to compare the importance of the same-level two risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
And the factor weight module of the second target user side 4, which receives the comparison request, is configured to obtain the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and send the comparison score to the server.
The server is further configured to establish a judgment matrix for each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to all the comparison scores sent by the factor weight module of each second target user end 4, so as to calculate a preliminary weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user end 4, obtain a weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model by combining the familiarity degree values of the users of each second target user end 4 and the research fields related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, and store the weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model to the database 3.
Optionally, the management terminal 1 further includes an expert information management module. The expert information management module is configured to view research fields of the users of the plurality of user terminals 4 and group the users of the plurality of user terminals 4 according to the research fields.
Through the technical scheme, after the users of the user sides 4 are grouped, the expert groups are established, the expert resources are integrated, and tasks and certain permission are assigned to the expert groups in the same research field conveniently.
Optionally, the expert information management module is further configured to add or delete an account of a user (expert) of the user terminal 4, modify a password of the user (expert) of the user terminal 4, view and edit information of the user (expert) of the user terminal 4, and give a user right to the user terminal 4. Optionally, there are a plurality of the management terminals 1. The expert information management module of one management terminal 1 of the plurality of management terminals 1 is further configured to add or delete an account number of an administrator of the management terminal 1, modify a password of the administrator of the management terminal 1, view and edit information of the administrator of the management terminal 1, and give management authority to the administrator of the management terminal 1. That is to say, the users of the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment system are divided into three levels of authorities: the super administrator using the administrator terminal 1, the sub-administrator using the administrator terminal 1, and the user using the user terminal 4. The super manager 1 is a system manager, and can check and modify information of all sub managers and users in the system. The account number of the sub-administrator is registered and added by the super administrator, and the super administrator has the right to add the authority to the account of the appointed sub-administrator and has the right to delete and modify the authority information. A plurality of sub-administrators can add user accounts to provide users with user names and passwords, and the users log in clients by means of the user names and the passwords. The sub-administrator can view the information of all users, delete the user account or modify the information in the user account, and modify the authority information in the user account. The users are experts, can log in the client to modify personal information of the users, can also assign values to the risk factors or assign values to the epidemic disease risk factors after being endowed with authority, and can not log in a system to check and modify information of other users (experts).
Optionally, the management side 1 and the user side 4 further include a login module configured to log in.
The administrator of the management terminal 1 or the user of the user terminal 4 inputs the user name and the password, and enters the management terminal 1 or the user terminal 4 after being inquired whether the user name and the password are correct through the database 3, so that the response operation of the system is realized.
With regard to the system in the above embodiment, the specific manner in which each module performs the operation has been described in detail in the embodiment related to the method, and will not be elaborated here.
Based on the above inventive concept, the embodiments of the present disclosure further provide a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment method.
Based on the inventive concept, the embodiment of the present disclosure further provides an electronic device. Fig. 5 is a block diagram illustrating an electronic device 700 according to an example embodiment. As shown in fig. 5, the electronic device 700 may include: a processor 701 and a memory 702. The electronic device 700 may also include one or more of a multimedia component 703, an input/output (I/O) interface 704, and a communication component 705.
The processor 701 is configured to control the overall operation of the electronic device 700 to complete all or part of the steps of the above-mentioned method for evaluating the risk of an external livestock and poultry epidemic. The memory 702 is used to store various types of data to support operation at the electronic device 700, such as instructions for any application or method operating on the electronic device 700 and application-related data, such as contact data, transmitted and received messages, pictures, audio, video, and the like. The Memory 702 may be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile Memory device or combination thereof, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), Electrically Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EEPROM), Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EPROM), Programmable Read-Only Memory (PROM), Read-Only Memory (ROM), magnetic Memory, flash Memory, magnetic disk, or optical disk. The multimedia components 703 may include screen and audio components. Wherein the screen may be, for example, a touch screen and the audio component is used for outputting and/or inputting audio signals. For example, the audio component may include a microphone for receiving external audio signals. The received audio signal may further be stored in the memory 702 or transmitted through the communication component 705. The audio assembly also includes at least one speaker for outputting audio signals. The I/O interface 704 provides an interface between the processor 701 and other interface modules, such as a keyboard, mouse, buttons, etc. These buttons may be virtual buttons or physical buttons. The communication component 705 is used for wired or wireless communication between the electronic device 700 and other devices. Wireless communication, such as Wi-Fi, bluetooth, Near Field Communication (NFC), 2G, 3G, 4G, NB-IOT, eMTC, or other 5G, etc., or a combination of one or more of them, which is not limited herein. The corresponding communication component 705 may thus include: Wi-Fi module, Bluetooth module, NFC module, etc.
In an exemplary embodiment, the electronic Device 700 may be implemented by one or more Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), Digital Signal Processing Devices (DSPDs), Programmable logic devices (Programmable L Digital devices, P L D), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), controllers, microcontrollers, microprocessors or other electronic components for performing the above-mentioned foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment method.
In another exemplary embodiment, there is also provided a computer readable storage medium including program instructions, which when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the above-mentioned foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment method. For example, the computer readable storage medium may be the memory 702 including the program instructions, which can be executed by the processor 701 of the electronic device 700 to perform the above-mentioned method for evaluating the risk of the foreign livestock and poultry diseases.
In another exemplary embodiment, a computer program product is also provided, which comprises a computer program executable by a programmable apparatus, the computer program having code portions for performing the above-mentioned foreign livestock and poultry epidemic risk assessment method when executed by the programmable apparatus.
The preferred embodiments of the present disclosure are described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, however, the present disclosure is not limited to the specific details of the above embodiments, and various simple modifications may be made to the technical solution of the present disclosure within the technical idea of the present disclosure, and these simple modifications all belong to the protection scope of the present disclosure.
It should be noted that, in the foregoing embodiments, various features described in the above embodiments may be combined in any suitable manner, and in order to avoid unnecessary repetition, various combinations that are possible in the present disclosure are not described again.
In addition, any combination of various embodiments of the present disclosure may be made, and the same should be considered as the disclosure of the present disclosure, as long as it does not depart from the spirit of the present disclosure.

Claims (10)

1. A foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining at least one research area of a user and a familiarity degree value for each of the research areas;
selecting an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and sending an assignment request to at least one first target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the assignment request is used for requesting the first target user to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, obtaining the risk scores of the epidemic diseases and generating a risk evaluation report of the epidemic diseases according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic diseases.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the risk score of the epidemic disease according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease after receiving the assignment responses returned by all the first target users comprises:
after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users, summing the familiarity degree values of all the first target users to obtain a familiarity degree value sum;
taking the quotient of the familiarity degree value and the familiarity degree value sum of the research field related to the epidemic disease of each first target user as the weight of each first target user;
calculating a preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor;
and weighting the weight of each first target user and the preliminary risk score of the epidemic disease determined by each first target user to obtain the risk score of the epidemic disease.
3. The method of claim 1 or 2, wherein the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the disease stratification model is determined by:
sending a comparison request to at least one second target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the comparison request is used for requesting the second target user to compare the importance of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model so as to obtain the comparison score of the same-level pairwise risk factors in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
establishing a judgment matrix according to the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model made by each second target user, and calculating the preliminary weight value of each lowest level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user;
and obtaining the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the preliminary weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user and the familiarity degree value of each second target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the epidemic disease is bluetongue, and the step of selecting the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to the epidemic disease attribute information comprises:
selecting the bluetongue disease transmission risk as a target layer;
selecting epidemic disease conditions, an export state veterinarian management system, an export state animal health control system, export state breeding management and export state processing slaughter management as first-level risk factors;
selecting etiology characteristics, epidemic situation of export countries, epidemiological characteristics, vector biology, diagnosis and prevention as secondary risk factors of the epidemic situation, and selecting organization architecture, legislation, execution capacity, human resources and expenditure budget of a mechanism as the secondary risk factors of the management system of the export countries veterinarian; selecting epidemic disease notification, an early warning system and an emergency plan, a monitoring plan making and implementing effect, regional management and effect, a laboratory system and detection capability, animal and product tracing and transportation control, entry and exit quarantine management and border control as a secondary risk factor of an export animal health control system; selecting culture scale and mode and epidemic disease daily prevention and control measures as second-level risk factors for export country culture management; slaughter processing capacity, animal in-and-out management and HACCP system operation are selected as secondary risk factors for export country processing slaughter management.
5. A foreign livestock and poultry epidemic disease risk assessment device, its characterized in that, the device includes:
a profile module configured to obtain at least one research area of a user and a familiarity value for each of the research areas;
the risk scoring module is configured to select an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and send an assignment request to at least one first target user according to the research field of each user, wherein the assignment request is used for requesting the first target user to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
and the risk evaluation report generation module is configured to obtain a risk score of the epidemic disease and generate a risk evaluation report of the epidemic disease according to the weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, the assignment of each first target user to the lowest-level risk factor and the familiarity degree value of the first target user in the research field related to the epidemic disease after receiving assignment responses returned by all the first target users.
6. The system for evaluating the risk of the epidemic diseases of the exotic livestock and poultry is characterized by comprising a management end, a cloud platform, a database and a plurality of user ends, wherein the management end, the database and each user end are connected with the cloud platform;
the personal data module is configured to obtain at least one research field of a user and familiarity degree values of each research field and store the familiarity degree values to the database;
the task issuing module is configured to select an epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to epidemic disease attribute information, and send an assignment request to at least one first target user side according to the research field of the user of each user side, and is used for requesting the user of the first target user side to assign a lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
the risk scoring module of the first target user side, which receives the assignment request, is configured to obtain the assignment of the user of the first target user side to the lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and store the assignment to the database;
the risk assessment report generation module is configured to send a report generation instruction to the cloud platform so as to control the cloud platform to obtain, from the database, a weight value of each lowest-level risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, an assignment of each target client to the lowest-level risk factor, and a familiarity value of a user of the target client in a research field related to the epidemic disease, to calculate a risk score of the epidemic disease and to generate a risk assessment report of the epidemic disease.
7. The system of claim 6, wherein the management side further comprises a hierarchical modeling module, and the user side further comprises a factor weight module;
the hierarchical structure modeling module is configured to establish at least one epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and store the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model in a database, wherein the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model comprises at least two levels of risk factors;
the task issuing module is further configured to send a comparison request to at least one second target user side according to the research field of the user of each user side aiming at each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model established by the hierarchical structure modeling module, and the comparison request is used for requesting the user of the second target user side to compare the importance of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model;
the factor weight module of the second target user side, which receives the comparison request, is configured to obtain the comparison score of every two risk factors at the same level in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model and send the comparison score to a server;
the server is further configured to establish a judgment matrix for each epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model according to all the comparison scores sent by the factor weight module of each second target user side, so as to calculate a preliminary weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model determined by each second target user side, obtain a weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model by combining the familiarity degree value of the user of each second target user side and the research field related to the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model, and store the weight value of each risk factor in the epidemic disease hierarchical analysis model to the database.
8. The system according to claim 6 or 7, wherein the management terminal further comprises an expert information management module configured to view research areas of users of the plurality of the user terminals and group the users of the plurality of the user terminals according to the research areas.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
10. An electronic device, comprising:
a memory having a computer program stored thereon;
a processor for executing the computer program in the memory to carry out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 4.
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