CN111191355A - Relay protection device operation risk assessment method based on severity - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a severity-based operation risk assessment method for a relay protection device, which comprises the following steps of: s1, establishing a protection device shutdown model according to a failure mode of the relay protection device and the failure rate of the failure mode; s2, establishing a regional power grid simulation model according to the grid structure and the load of the power grid region where the relay protection device is located; s3, calculating the power grid load flow after shutdown according to the shutdown model and the simulation model, selecting different electrical quantity indexes according to the power grid load flow calculation result, and calculating the risk severity of the relay protection device under the condition of a single electrical quantity index; s4, weighting the risk severity under the single electrical quantity index, calculating the operation risk of the relay protection device, selecting a plurality of key index analysis elements to analyze the influence of outage on the power system, and meanwhile, performing simulation result calculation by establishing an outage model and a simulation model, and providing guidance basis for relevant personnel to take corresponding measures aiming at risks with different properties.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power grid operation and maintenance, in particular to a severity-based operation risk assessment method for a relay protection device.
Background
When a power element (such as a generator, a line and the like) in a power system or the power system itself has a fault, which endangers the safe operation of the power system, an automatic measure and equipment which can send out a warning signal to an operation attendant in time or directly send out a tripping command to a controlled breaker to terminate the development of the events are provided. The complete equipment for realizing the automatic measures is generally called as a relay protection device, in a power grid system, the operation risk of the relay protection device is related to the reliability of the equipment and regional power supply, the operation risk of the relay protection device lacks a relatively comprehensive and reliable analysis, and operation and maintenance personnel are not easy to grasp the reliability of the whole operation.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the method for evaluating the running risk of the relay protection device based on the severity comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing a protection device shutdown model according to a failure mode of the relay protection device and the failure rate of the failure mode;
s2, establishing a regional power grid simulation model according to the grid structure and the load of the power grid region where the relay protection device is located;
s3, calculating the power grid load flow after shutdown according to the shutdown model and the simulation model, selecting different electrical quantity indexes according to the power grid load flow calculation result, and calculating the risk severity of the relay protection device under the condition of a single electrical quantity index;
and S4, weighting the risk severity under the single electrical quantity index, and calculating the operation risk of the relay protection device.
The invention has the beneficial effects that the severity-based operation risk evaluation method for the relay protection device is provided, a plurality of key index analysis elements are selected to analyze the influence of outage on an electric power system, and meanwhile, the outage model and the simulation model are established to calculate the simulation result, so that instructive basis is provided for relevant personnel to take corresponding measures aiming at risks with different properties.
Drawings
The invention is further illustrated by the attached drawings, the examples of which are not to be construed as limiting the invention in any way.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the implementation steps in one embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The following is a detailed illustration of the inventive concept in connection with the examples, and should not be taken to limit the scope of the invention, but rather as an aid to understanding the principles.
Example (b): as shown in fig. 1
A severity-based operation risk assessment method for a relay protection device comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing a protection device shutdown model according to a failure mode of the relay protection device and the failure rate of the failure mode;
s2, establishing a regional power grid simulation model according to the grid structure and the load of the power grid region where the relay protection device is located;
s3, calculating the power grid load flow after shutdown according to the shutdown model and the simulation model, selecting different electrical quantity indexes according to the power grid load flow calculation result, and calculating the risk severity of the relay protection device under the condition of a single electrical quantity index;
and S4, weighting the risk severity under the single electrical quantity index, and calculating the operation risk of the relay protection device.
Aiming at risk assessment, a shutdown model is established by a relay protection device failure mode and failure rate thereof, the model reflects the states under various failure conditions, and is combined with a grid structure of a power grid area, the grid structure generally comprises modes of single radiation, double radiation, multi-segment single connection, multi-segment proper connection, a single ring network, a double ring network, N supply 1 equipment and the like, the simulation model is established according to actual areas and combined with the coincidence condition in the areas, so that the model can be ensured to successfully output a power flow result and obtain real data output, an electric quantity index is selected according to the calculation result of the power grid power flow, the selection of the electric quantity index can be implemented according to information recorded in the past operation ticket, and the operation ticket for many years can be referred to for improving the accuracy of the electric quantity index selection, and then calculating the risk severity of the relay protection device under the single electrical quantity index, finally performing weighting processing on the risk severity under the single electrical quantity index to obtain the final risk severity, and based on the mode of comprehensively considering the risk severity of the related electrical quantity index, the evaluation method can have higher reliability and accuracy.
Preferably, the failure modes include:
when the power equipment has a fault, the relay protection device of the equipment acts correctly, and the relay protection devices of other adjacent equipment act wrongly;
when the power equipment fails, a relay protection device of the equipment refuses to operate;
when no fault occurs, the relay protection device is in misoperation when a large disturbance occurs due to the change of the operation mode or the load of a nearby area.
For the relay protection device, when the power equipment fails, the power equipment needs to make a corresponding response, but in the actual working process, a failure condition exists, namely, an operation risk exists, various possible failure modes are comprehensively considered, so that a model closer to the actual situation of a site is established, the reliability of evaluation is ensured, the failure rate of each corresponding relay protection device has difference and instability factors, and the failure rate of each corresponding relay protection device is used as reliability data of the relay protection device, wherein the data mainly come from relevant statistical information, such as statistical analysis of the operation condition of relay protection and safety automatic devices of national grid companies.
Preferably, the electrical quantity index in step S3 includes voltage out-of-limit, component overload, and load loss, and the voltage out-of-limit severity, component overload severity, and load loss severity are calculated.
The voltage out-of-limit reaction is the possibility and the harm degree of bus voltage out-of-limit in the system caused by system accidents; the element overload reaction is that when the power flow of a line and a transformer approaches or exceeds the power limit, on one hand, the working state of the equipment is worse, the original defects of the equipment are amplified, and on the other hand, the possibility that the equipment exits from running is increased when a protection device of the equipment is in imminent motion; the load loss reaction is that for a certain expected accident, a direct current power flow optimal power flow model calculation system is based on, the minimum load reduction total amount under the constraint conditions of power balance, a direct current power flow equation, line power flow and generated output of the direct current power flow optimal power flow model calculation system is met, and the minimum load reduction total amount is also a guiding factor for calculating the power flow when the model is established; the three electrical quantity indexes are main accidents in the power grid system, and the severity of the risk brought by the three indexes is comprehensively considered.
Preferably, the voltage violation severity is characterized by:
in the formula, RvIs the voltage ratio, i.e. the ratio of the actual voltage of the bus to the rated voltage of the bus, SvIs of voltage off-limit severity.
Preferably, the element overload severity is characterized by:
in the formula, RlIs the duty ratio, i.e. the ratio of the actual delivered power to the power limit, SlIs the severity of the element overload.
Preferably, the severity of load loss is characterized by:
Sc＝Rc·5 (3)
in the formula, RcIs the percentage of the lost load to the current load, ScThe severity of the load.
Preferably, the method further comprises the following steps of 5: establishing a quasi-accident set of any one set of relay protection device, wherein the quasi-accident set comprises all branches adjacent to any one set of relay protection device, calculating a single risk index of any accident in the quasi-accident set to any one set of relay protection device, and representing the single risk index as follows:
in the formula, SiIs a single risk indicator;
α and β are weight coefficients, which satisfy α + β ═ 1;
s is a single risk index vector in a quasi accident;
||S||1is 1 norm of vector S, | S | | non-woven phosphor∞Is the ∞ norm of vector S;
wherein S is characterized as:
S＝(Sk1，Sk2，……，Skn)T，k∈(v，l，c)
in the formula, SkiFor a single risk value for device i, n is the total number of devices in the quasi-accident concentration, and v, l, c represent the set of voltage out-of-limit, component overload, and load loss accidents.
And establishing a quasi-accident set, deducing various possible accidents, calculating a single risk index of a certain accident on a system, and providing reliable reference data as a evidence factor for operation risk assessment.
Preferably, in step S4, the weighting factor for the severity of the single electrical quantity index is a composite weighting factor, the composite weighting factor including a subjective weighting factor and an objective weighting factor, and is characterized by:
W＝[W1，W2……Wn]
in the formula, W is the comprehensive weight, U is the subjective weight vector, and V is the objective weight vector.
Preferably, the objective weight is calculated by a coefficient of variation method, and the subjective weight is calculated by an analytic hierarchy process.
When weight analysis is carried out through an analytic hierarchy process, a target layer is a comprehensive severity index, a criterion layer is a single electrical quantity severity index, the subjective weight of the criterion layer index to the target layer is firstly determined, a judgment matrix is established based on historical data, and then the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix and the corresponding eigenvector are calculated:
wherein a isijTo determine the matrix element, the vector u is (u)1，u2，……un) Performing normalization processing, and calculating maximum eigenvalue
The consistency check is carried out on the judgment matrix, and the output consistency result u isiThe subjective weight of each index factor is obtained;
when weight evaluation is performed by the coefficient of variation method, the determination of the weight is based on the degree of variation of each factor to be evaluated, and the evaluation matrix S' is formed based on the original index score data (S)1，S2，……Sn)TCalculation of index coefficient of variation
In the formula viIs the coefficient of variation, σ, of the i-th indexiIs the standard deviation of the i-th index,
is the average of the i index, and the objective weight of the i index is
Preferably, the operation risk of the relay protection device is characterized by:
P＝W1·Sv+W2·Sl+W3·Sc
wherein P is the operation risk of the relay protection device, W1Is the comprehensive weight of voltage out-of-limit severity, W2Is a comprehensive weight of the severity of element overload, W3The comprehensive weight of the load severity is obtained.
And the severity of each electrical quantity index is subjected to comprehensive weight weighting, the total risk is calculated, relevant personnel can establish corresponding risk management methods for risks with different properties, and the operation safety and the economical efficiency of the power grid are improved.
In the description of the embodiments of the invention, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
In the description of the embodiments of the present invention, it should be understood that "-" and "-" indicate the same range of two numerical values, and the range includes the endpoints. For example, "A-B" means a range greater than or equal to A and less than or equal to B. "A to B" means a range of not less than A and not more than B.
In the description of the embodiments of the present invention, the term "and/or" herein is only one kind of association relationship describing an associated object, and means that there may be three kinds of relationships, for example, a and/or B, and may mean: a exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. In addition, the character "/" herein generally indicates that the former and latter related objects are in an "or" relationship.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (10)
1. A severity-based operation risk assessment method for a relay protection device is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, establishing a protection device shutdown model according to a failure mode of the relay protection device and the failure rate of the failure mode;
s2, establishing a regional power grid simulation model according to the grid structure and the load of the power grid region where the relay protection device is located;
s3, calculating the power grid load flow after shutdown according to the shutdown model and the simulation model, selecting different electrical quantity indexes according to the power grid load flow calculation result, and calculating the risk severity of the relay protection device under the condition of a single electrical quantity index;
and S4, weighting the risk severity under the single electrical quantity index, and calculating the operation risk of the relay protection device.
2. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for the relay protection device according to claim 1, wherein the failure mode comprises:
when the power equipment has a fault, the relay protection device of the equipment acts correctly, and the relay protection devices of other adjacent equipment act wrongly;
when the power equipment fails, a relay protection device of the equipment refuses to operate;
when no fault occurs, the relay protection device is in misoperation when a large disturbance occurs due to the change of the operation mode or the load of a nearby area.
3. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for relay protection devices according to claim 1, wherein the electrical quantity indicators in step S3 include voltage threshold, component overload and load loss, and the voltage threshold severity, component overload severity and load loss severity are calculated.
4. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for the relay protection device according to claim 3, wherein the voltage out-of-limit severity is characterized by:
in the formula, RvIs the voltage ratio, i.e. the ratio of the actual voltage of the bus to the rated voltage of the bus, SvIs of voltage off-limit severity.
5. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for relay protection devices according to claim 3, wherein the severity of overload on the component is characterized by:
in the formula, RlIs the duty ratio, i.e. the ratio of the actual delivered power to the power limit, SlIs the severity of the element overload.
6. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for relay protection devices according to claim 3, wherein the severity of load loss is characterized by:
Sc＝Rc·5 (3)
in the formula, RcIs the percentage of the lost load to the current load, ScThe severity of the load.
7. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for the relay protection device according to claim 1, further comprising the step 5: establishing a quasi-accident set of any one set of relay protection device, wherein the quasi-accident set comprises all branches adjacent to any one set of relay protection device, calculating a single risk index of any accident in the quasi-accident set to any one set of relay protection device, and representing the single risk index as follows:
in the formula, SiIs a single risk indicator;
α and β are weight coefficients, which satisfy α + β ═ 1;
s is a single risk index vector in a quasi accident;
||S||1is 1 norm of vector S, | S | | non-woven phosphor∞Is the ∞ norm of vector S;
wherein S is characterized as:
S＝(Sk1，Sk2，……，Skn)T，k∈(v，l，c)
in the formula, SkiFor a single risk value for device i, n is the total number of devices in the quasi-accident concentration, and v, l, c represent the set of voltage out-of-limit, component overload, and load loss accidents.
8. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for relay protection devices according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, the weight of severity under the single electrical quantity indicator is weighted into a comprehensive weight, and the comprehensive weight comprises a subjective weight and an objective weight, and is characterized by:
W＝[W1，W2……Wn]
in the formula, W is the comprehensive weight, U is the subjective weight vector, and V is the objective weight vector.
9. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for relay protection devices according to claim 8, wherein the objective weight is calculated by a coefficient of variation method, and the subjective weight is calculated by an analytic hierarchy process.
10. The severity-based operation risk assessment method for the relay protection device according to any one of claims 8, wherein the operation risk characterization of the relay protection device is as follows:
P＝W1·Sv+W2·Sl+W3·Sc
wherein P is the operation risk of the relay protection device, W1Is the comprehensive weight of voltage out-of-limit severity, W2Is a comprehensive weight of the severity of element overload, W3The comprehensive weight of the load severity is obtained.
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Application publication date: 20200522 |