CN110738530A - user side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method - Google Patents

user side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method Download PDF

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CN110738530A
CN110738530A CN201911009614.5A CN201911009614A CN110738530A CN 110738530 A CN110738530 A CN 110738530A CN 201911009614 A CN201911009614 A CN 201911009614A CN 110738530 A CN110738530 A CN 110738530A
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刘可真
徐玥
苟家萁
刘通
和婧
王骞
李鹤健
阮俊枭
吴世浙
陈雪鸥
陈镭丹
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Kunming University of Science and Technology
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Abstract

The invention discloses an comprehensive benefit analysis method for electric energy substitution facing to user side, which comprises the steps of firstly analyzing the economic benefit of electric energy substitution from the aspects of annual cost and total life cost according to the concrete substitution measures of three ways of electric energy substitution, namely 'electricity for coal', 'electricity for oil' and 'electricity for gas', and respectively analyzing the economic benefit of electric energy substitution from the aspects of CO according to the concrete substitution measures2、CO、NOX、SO2The pollutant discharge amount is equal, and the environmental benefit of electric energy substitution is analyzed; determining an initial sequence matrix according to the calculated result of each index, and carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data; performing difference operation and calculating a correlation coefficient by using the grey correlation degree; and performing mean value calculation on the correlation coefficients of the evaluation object and the reference object, and obtaining the ranking of the electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit implementation approach suitable for the regional energy characteristics according to the magnitude of the correlation degree. The method provided by the invention gives consideration to the dynamic changes of economic benefit and environmental benefitThe energy terminal user provides decision basis and reference value for implementation planning and replacement amount of the electric energy replacement project in the future.

Description

user side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electric energy substitution, in particular to an user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method.
Background
The environmental problem and the resource problem caused by the energy consumption structure mainly using fossil energy at present are important factors restricting the economic development; CO22、NOX、SO2And the haze is serious and the quality of the ambient air exceeds the standard due to the emission of the total amount of the atmospheric pollutants.
The aim of electric energy replacement is to improve the utilization efficiency of clean energy and reduce the direct use of the traditional fossil energy at an energy utilization terminal, and the fundamental strategy is to replace coal by electricity, oil by electricity, gas by electricity and electricity from a distance, and the core is to change the energy and electric power development mode. The electric energy substitution benefit facing the user side is analyzed, so that decision basis can be provided for the energy terminal user in the electric energy substitution, and the electric energy substitution project is further promoted to be economically, reasonably and scientifically developed.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide user-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis methods, construct electric energy substitution benefit indexes from the perspective of end users, compare the economic benefits and environmental benefits of three specific substitution approaches by utilizing the gray correlation degree transverse angle, obtain the ranking of electric energy substitution implementation approaches, and provide theoretical support for catering to electric energy substitution development.
In order to solve the technical problems, the user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
step 10) analyzing the economic benefits of electric energy substitution from the aspects of annual cost and full-life cost respectively according to specific substitution measures of three ways of electric energy substitution, namely 'substituting coal by electricity', 'substituting oil by electricity' and 'substituting gas by electricity';
step 20) according to specific alternatives, respectively from CO2、CO、NOX、SO2Waiting for the pollutant discharge amount, and analyzing the environmental benefit of electric energy substitution;
step 30) determining an initial sequence matrix according to the results of the indexes calculated in the steps 10) and 20), and carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data;
step 40) utilizing the grey correlation degree, performing difference operation by using the data processed in the step 30), and calculating a correlation coefficient;
and step 50) carrying out average calculation by using the correlation coefficient obtained in the step 40).
In the step 10), according to specific substitution measures of three ways of substituting electric energy, namely 'substituting coal by electricity', 'substituting oil by electricity' and 'substituting gas by electricity', the economic benefits of electric energy substitution are analyzed from the aspects of annual cost and full-life cost respectively, and the specific analysis steps are as follows:
replacing a coal-fired tobacco curing house with an electric coal-electric tobacco curing house, considering initial investment and annual operation cost, and comparing annual cost before and after replacement by taking the annual cost as a comprehensive index;
annual cost of coal-fired tobacco flue-curing house:
Figure BDA0002243800610000021
annual cost of the electric tobacco baking room:
Figure BDA0002243800610000022
AF is the average annual cost of the tobacco flue-curing house, I is the initial investment cost of the tobacco flue-curing house, r is the benchmark discount rate, NtIs the age, and F is the annual operating cost of the equipment; p is energy price, McoalAnd QeRespectively the coal and electric energy consumption, F1For cost of labor, F2For maintenance costs;
the electricity replaces the oil, namely the electric automobile replaces the fuel automobile, and the purchase cost, the running cost and the consumed energy price are considered, so that the life cycle cost of the traditional fuel automobile and the life cycle cost of the electric automobile are compared;
the total life cost of the fuel automobile is as follows:
Figure BDA0002243800610000023
the whole life cost of the electric automobile:
Figure BDA0002243800610000024
AF is the life-cycle cost of the vehicle, I is the acquisition cost of the vehicle, R is the maintenance cost, FoilAnd FEVFuel and charging costs, respectively; q represents the energy consumption of the automobile per unit distance, p represents the average price of energy in the season, and D represents the average mileage of the automobile in the whole life cycle;
replacing a gas boiler with an electric boiler, considering initial investment and annual operation cost, and comparing the annual cost of the traditional gas boiler with that of the electric boiler:
annual gas boiler cost:
Figure BDA0002243800610000031
annual electric boiler cost:
Figure BDA0002243800610000032
AF is the annual cost of the equipment, I is the initial investment cost of the equipment, r is the benchmark discount rate, NtThe service life of the equipment is F, and the annual operation cost of the equipment is F; hiFor the daily average demand of the user, SgasFor heating value of fuel gas, ηgasFor gas equipment efficiency, T is the number of days used and p is the energy price.
In said step 20), depending on the particular alternative, respectively from CO2、CO、NOX、SO2And (3) waiting for the discharge amount of pollutants, analyzing the environmental benefit of electric energy substitution, and specifically analyzing the following steps:
environmental protection indexes of fire coal:
the carbon emission coefficient of 1 ton of standard coal is 0.67 (standard of national institute of development and improvement), and the reduction of carbon emission is:
ECoal＝0.67×MCoal(7)
the carbon dioxide emission is as follows:
Figure BDA0002243800610000033
Figure BDA0002243800610000035
mC＝12g/mol，CO、NOx、SO2the emission amount of pollutants such as smoke dust and the like is calculated according to the corresponding emission coefficient in the pollutant emission coefficient and emission amount calculation method;
the environmental protection index of the fuel oil is as follows:
Figure BDA0002243800610000034
Figure BDA0002243800610000045
ECO-oilis the fuel automobile CO per unit distance2、SO2、NOXAverage emission of CO, λ is the complete combustion rate of the fuel, B is the average fuel consumption per unit distance, ηC、ηS、ηNRespectively represent the contents of carbon, sulfur and nitrogen in the gasoline (η)C＝90％，ηS＝0.1％，ηN0.02%), β, the conversion rate of nitrogen in fuel oil is 35%;
environmental protection indexes of the fuel gas:
Figure BDA0002243800610000041
ECO-gasis unit of natural gas CO2、SO2Average CO emission, V natural gas consumption, delta natural gas complete combustion rate ηH2SThe hydrogen sulfide content is 0.05 percent;
electric energy replaces environmental indexes:
the thermal power plant produces 8.5kgSO per tons of standard coal2，7.4kgNOX：
Figure BDA0002243800610000042
ηcoalThe ratio of thermal power generation in the total power generation in the season is 9.7 percent, and lambda isCoalThe average standard coal consumption in thermal power generation is 0.32kg/kWh and PERepresents an electric quantity, EC-IThe method is characterized in that the method is used for actually reducing the pollutant discharge amount for the coal burning amount during upstream power generation as shown in the formula (12):
Figure BDA0002243800610000043
in the step 30), the specific steps of determining the initial sequence matrix according to the results of the indexes calculated in the steps 10) and 20) and performing non-dimensionalization on the data are as follows:
there are n evaluation objects, each evaluation object has m evaluation indexes, generate the data sequence matrix:
Figure BDA0002243800610000044
the reference sequence is constructed using the optimal values of the indices:
X'0＝(x'0(1),x'0(2),L,x'0(n)) (14)
the Min-Max standardization method is used for carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data:
Figure BDA0002243800610000051
obtaining a matrix:
the step 40) performs a difference operation using the data processed in the step 30) by using the gray correlation degree, and calculates the correlation coefficient by the following specific steps:
calculating the absolute difference value of indexes corresponding to each evaluation index sequence and the reference sequence:
Δi(k)＝|x0(k)-xi(k)| (17)
i＝0,1,2,…,n；k＝,1,2,…,m
determining a maximum difference value and a minimum difference value:
Figure BDA0002243800610000053
calculating the correlation coefficient of corresponding elements of each comparison sequence and the reference sequence, wherein rho is a resolution coefficient and takes the value of 0.5,
Figure BDA0002243800610000054
obtaining a correlation coefficient matrix:
Figure BDA0002243800610000055
the step 50) uses the correlation coefficient obtained in the step 40) to perform mean value calculation, and the calculation method is as follows:
Figure BDA0002243800610000056
and taking different action sizes of the evaluation indexes in the evaluation into consideration, and performing weighted calculation on the correlation coefficient, wherein wkWeight for the k-th index:
Figure BDA0002243800610000061
compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages that user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis methods are provided, aiming at improving the electric energy ratio at an energy user terminal, continuously optimizing an energy utilization structure, constructing an electric energy substitution benefit index from the angle of a terminal user, starting from specific substitution measures of replacing coal by electricity, replacing oil by electricity and replacing gas by electricity, constructing the electric energy substitution benefit index under the condition of considering pollutant emission during upstream power generation, calculating the most common substitution mode in three types of substitution ways and the economic and environmental benefits of traditional equipment, and obtaining a main electric energy substitution way suitable for regional development by using a grey correlation method to transversely compare the three types of substitution ways based on a regional energy structure.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis process provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the proximity of benefits before and after electric energy substitution.
Detailed Description
To make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer and more complete, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, it is obvious that the described embodiments are partial embodiments of the present invention, rather than all embodiments, and all other embodiments obtained by a person of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention provides an user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method, which comprises the following steps:
step 10) analyzing the economic benefits of electric energy substitution from the aspects of annual cost and full-life cost respectively according to specific substitution measures of three ways of electric energy substitution, namely 'substituting coal by electricity', 'substituting oil by electricity' and 'substituting gas by electricity'; the specific steps are as follows:
the coal-fired tobacco curing barn is replaced by the electric coal-electric tobacco curing barn, the initial investment and the annual operation cost are considered, the annual cost is taken as a comprehensive index, and the annual cost before and after replacement is compared.
Annual cost of coal-fired tobacco flue-curing house:
Figure BDA0002243800610000071
annual cost of the electric tobacco baking room:
Figure BDA0002243800610000081
AF is the average annual cost of the tobacco flue-curing house, I is the initial investment cost of the tobacco flue-curing house, r is the benchmark discount rate, NtIs the age, and F is the annual operating cost of the equipment; p is energy price, McoalAnd QeRespectively the coal and electric energy consumption, F1For cost of labor, F2For maintenance costs.
The electric vehicle replaces the fuel vehicle, and the purchase cost, the running cost and the consumed energy price are considered, so that the vehicle cost of the traditional fuel vehicle and the electric vehicle in the whole life cycle is compared.
The total life cost of the fuel automobile is as follows:
the whole life cost of the electric automobile:
Figure BDA0002243800610000083
AF is the life-cycle cost of the vehicle, I is the acquisition cost of the vehicle, R is the maintenance cost, FoilAnd FEVFuel and charging costs, respectively; q represents the energy consumption per unit distance of the automobile, p represents the average price of energy in the season, and D represents the average mileage of the vehicle in the whole life cycle.
The electric gas boiler replaces a gas boiler, the initial investment and the annual running cost are considered, and the annual cost of the traditional gas boiler and the annual cost of the electric boiler are compared.
Annual gas boiler cost:
Figure BDA0002243800610000084
an electric boiler:
Figure BDA0002243800610000085
AF is the annual cost of the equipment, I is the initial investment cost of the equipment, r is the benchmark discount rate, NtThe service life of the equipment is F, and the annual operation cost of the equipment is F; hiFor the daily average demand of the user, SgasFor heating value of fuel gas, ηgasFor gas equipment efficiency, T is the number of days used and p is the energy price.
Step 20) according to specific alternatives, respectively from CO2、CO、NOX、SO2Waiting for the pollutant discharge amount, and analyzing the environmental benefit of electric energy substitution; the method comprises the following specific steps:
environmental protection indexes of fire coal:
the carbon emission coefficient of 1 ton of standard coal is 0.67 (according to the standard of the institute of energy of the national institute of development and improvement), and the reduction of carbon emission is:
ECoal＝0.67×MCoal(7)
ideally, the carbon dioxide emission is:
Figure BDA0002243800610000094
mC＝12g/mol，SO2、NOxand the emission amount of pollutants such as CO, smoke dust and the like is calculated according to the corresponding emission coefficient in the pollutant emission coefficient and emission amount calculation method.
The environmental protection index of the fuel oil is as follows:
Figure BDA0002243800610000097
ECO-oiis the fuel automobile CO per unit distance2、SO2、NOXAverage emission of CO, λ is the complete combustion rate of the fuel, B is the average fuel consumption per unit distance, ηC、ηS、ηNRespectively represent the contents of carbon, sulfur and nitrogen in the gasoline (η)C＝90％，ηS＝0.1％，ηN0.02%), β, the conversion of nitrogen in the fuel (35% value).
Environmental protection indexes of the fuel gas:
Figure BDA0002243800610000093
Figure BDA0002243800610000096
ECO-gasis unit of natural gas CO2、SO2Average amount of CO, V representsNatural gas consumption, delta being the complete combustion rate of natural gas, ηH2SThe content is the hydrogen sulfide content (0.05 percent).
Electric energy replaces environmental indexes:
the thermal power plant produces 8.5kgSO per tons of standard coal2，7.4kgNOX：
Figure BDA0002243800610000101
ηcoalThe ratio of thermal power generation in the total power generation of Yunnan province in the season is 9.7 percent, and the lambda isCoalThe average standard coal consumption in thermal power generation is 0.32kg/kWh and PERepresents an electric quantity, EC-IThe coal burning quantity during the upstream power generation; the actual reduction of pollutant emissions is shown by the formula (12):
Figure BDA0002243800610000102
step 30) determining an initial sequence matrix according to the results of the indexes calculated in the steps 10) and 20), and carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data;
assuming that n evaluation objects exist and each evaluation object has m evaluation indexes, generating a data sequence matrix:
Figure BDA0002243800610000103
the reference sequence is constructed using the optimal values of the indices:
X'0＝(x'0(1),x'0(2),L,x'0(n)) (14)
the Min-Max standardization method is used for carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data:
Figure BDA0002243800610000104
obtaining a matrix:
Figure BDA0002243800610000105
step 40) using the grey correlation degree to perform difference operation by using the data processed in the step 30) and calculating a correlation coefficient, and the specific steps are as follows:
calculating the absolute difference value of indexes corresponding to each evaluation index sequence and the reference sequence:
Δi(k)＝|x0(k)-xi(k)| (17)
i＝0,1,2,…,n；k＝,1,2,…,m
determining the maximum and minimum difference:
Figure BDA0002243800610000111
calculating a correlation coefficient:
and calculating the correlation coefficient of corresponding elements of each comparison sequence and the reference sequence, wherein rho is a resolution coefficient, and if the value is smaller, the difference between the correlation coefficients is larger, and is generally 0.5.
Figure BDA0002243800610000112
The correlation coefficient matrix can be obtained:
Figure BDA0002243800610000113
and step 50) carrying out mean value calculation by using the correlation coefficient obtained in the step 40), and obtaining the ranking of the electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit implementation approach suitable for the regional energy characteristics according to the magnitude of the correlation degree.
The relevance of each evaluation object can be reflected through the calculation result:
when the difference of the action sizes of the indexes in the evaluation is considered, the relevance is subjected to weighted calculation, and the relevance is calculatedMiddle wkWeight for the k-th index:
examples
, replacing coal by electricity:
use the tradition coal-fired flue-curing barn in song jing city to reform transform electric flue-curing barn, to the end of 2016, song jing city reaches 38514 with the flue-curing barn, and the utilization ratio is about 93.18%. According to the research result of the provincial tobacco company, the transformation is carried out according to the mode of 'heat pump + auxiliary electric heating', and the transformation investment reaches 6 ten thousand yuan per seat. The capacity of the tobacco curing house is set as 20kVA, the power factor is measured and calculated according to 0.8, and the specific parameters are shown in Table 1:
TABLE 1 concrete parameters of conventional tobacco flue-curing house and electric tobacco flue-curing house
Item Parameter(s)
Single average energy production of single-seat curing barn 500kg
Annual roasting times and single time 6 times; 160 hours/time
Pre/post retrofit labor cost 2.1 yuan/kg (finished product, the same later); 0.7
Cost of transforming front/back electricity charges 0.56 yuan/kg; 1.13 yuan/kg
Transforming anterior/posterior dimensionCharge protection 0.53 yuan/kg; 0.99 yuan/kg
Average purchase price of dry tobacco leaves 25 yuan/kg
Coal burning cost 1.5 yuan/kg
Initial investment before/after reconstruction 1.6 ten thousand; 6 ten thousand
Before/after transformation service life 6.5 years old
Rate of discount 6％
Ratio of thermal power 9.7％
The traditional coal-fired tobacco curing barn has low automation degree, the finished product rate of flue-cured tobacco is 90%, the finished product rate of electric tobacco is greatly improved according to the investigation of the modified tobacco curing barn, the finished product rate reaches 99%, the quality of tobacco leaves is improved, and the additional benefit of 0.1 yuan/kg is brought; meanwhile, the labor cost is reduced by about 66%, and the economic benefits before and after modification are shown in tables 2 and 3:
TABLE 2 economic benefits before and after reforming of tobacco flue-curing house
Item Before transformation After transformation
Total annual output 90％*500*6kg 100％*500*6kg
Annual production time 160 x 6 hours 160 x 6 hours
Annual average coal combustion amount 6750kg+129.76kg 291kg
Annual average coal charge 4050 yuan ---
Annual power consumption 3344.4 degrees 7500 degree
Annual electricity charge 1512 yuan 3390 Yuan
Annual labor costs 5670 yuan 2100 yuan
Annual maintenance costs 1431 yuan 2970 yuan
Sum of money 1.266 Wanyuan 0.846 ten thousand yuan
TABLE 3 comparison of annual costs before and after reconstruction
Item Before transformation After transformation Difference before and after reconstruction
Annual cost 1.55 ten thousand yuan 2.05 ten thousand 0.5 ten thousand yuan
Annual average harvest 6.75 ten thousand yuan 7.53 ten thousand yuan 0.78 ten thousand yuan
Net profit 5.2 ten thousand yuan 5.48 ten thousand yuan 0.28 ten thousand yuan
The annual average income is not much increased, perhaps 0.28 ten thousand yuan, and the net profit can be increased by 1.01 million to 19.69 million yuan, taking into account the initial investment. Therefore, policy support such as government subsidy and electricity price discount can be provided in consideration of fund supply when the electric energy replacement project is promoted to be modified, and annual income and net profit are expanded to attract farmers to participate in modification.
The pollutant discharge amount after the flue-cured tobacco house in the Jing region is modified is shown in table 4 by calculating according to the environmental protection index of the fire coal.
TABLE 4 pollutant discharge after modification of tobacco flue-curing house
If the whole replacement transformation of the flue-curing barn in the Jingjing area is completed, 24.22 million tons of coal can be replaced on the user side, and because the power output of the Yunnan province fire only accounts for about 10% of the total amount, when the coal and waste gas emission on the upstream power supply side are considered, the social carbon emission can be reduced by 25.37 million tons.
Replacing oil with electricity:
taking gasoline No. 92 as a reference, and taking 18 days in 2 months in 2019, the price of gasoline No. 92 in Yunnan province is 6.87 yuan/L, gasoline No. 1L92 is about 0.72kg, and if the displacement of fuel automobiles is 2.0L and the average fuel consumption per hundred kilometers is about 9L, because the types of the current electric automobiles are more, subsidies are calculated according to 6 ten thousand yuan, and the parameters of the fuel automobiles and the electric automobiles are compared as shown in Table 5:
TABLE 5 comparison of Fuel automobile and electric automobile parameters
Figure BDA0002243800610000132
Figure BDA0002243800610000141
According to the electricity price calculation method of the notification of the problems related to the electric vehicle electricity price policy (the electricity price of the modification [2014]1668) in the national modification file, the private installation of a charging pile executes the electricity price of residents, the electric vehicle charging and replacing facility executes the peak-valley time-of-use electricity price policy, and the public charging facility executes the electricity prices of industrial and commercial businesses like " and other" classes, assuming that the average electricity price is 0.8 yuan/kWh, the economic benefits of the fuel vehicle and the electric vehicle are shown in the following table 6:
TABLE 6 comparison of economic benefits of Fuel-powered and electric vehicles
From the above calculation, it can be known that, assuming that automobiles travel 2 kilometers in years, the annual operating cost is 0.42 ten thousand yuan without considering the influence of the battery life on the mileage and the power consumption, but the battery life of the electric automobile is short, the cost for subsequently replacing the battery is 15-20 ten thousand yuan, the annual operating cost of the fuel automobile is 1.386 ten thousand yuan, and the cost of the fuel automobile is about 10 ten thousand higher than that of the electric automobile in the whole life cycle.
Comparing the emission of the fuel automobile and the electric automobile, obtaining a calculation result according to the emission coefficient by using an environmental benefit model, wherein the calculation result is shown in a table 7:
TABLE 7 Total social emission of fuel-powered and electric vehicles
Contaminants Fuel oil automobile Electric automobile
Annual/full life cycle CO2 emissions 4140kg/10.35 ten thousand tons 381kg/0.95 ten thousand tons
Year/life cycle SO2 emissions 2.592kg/64.8kg 2.98kg/74.50kg
Annual/full life cycle NOx emissions 2.129kg/53.23kg 1.13kg/28.18kg
Annual/full life cycle CO emissions - 0.29kg/7.25kg
CO (50 kilometres) in the whole life cycle of the electric automobile2The emission is far less than that of a fuel oil automobile, and the electric vehicle does not generate SO in the using process2NOx, etc., but CO and SO are generated during power generation in consideration of the thermal power ratio on the upstream power generation side2The emission amount of the fuel oil is slightly larger than that of a fuel oil automobile. According to the pollutant emission coefficient and emission calculation method, the CO emission of the fuel oil automobile is not counted.
Thirdly, replacing gas with electricity:
for example, the electric energy of resident domestic gas equipment is replaced, and it is assumed that 400-family communities use 10m of gas per month3If the device is changed into an electric device, each household uses 90kWh of electricity per month, according to the detailed rules for implementing the stepped electricity prices of residents in Yunnan province, the water-rich period is equal to yuan, and the stepped electricity price is 0.467 yuan (0.467 yuan) in the dry period<120kWh fraction), 0.517 yuan (121kWh-250kWh fraction), 0.817 yuan (>250kWh portions), 2018 yunnan yearbook kunming, with an average electricity price of 494.55 yuan/kWh. Table 8 shows the gas and electricity economic comparison in the cell.
TABLE 8 comparison of gas and electricity consumption economic benefits
Item Gas combustion Using electricity
Cost of acquisition 0.15 ten thousand yuan 0.17 ten thousand yuan
Unit price of energy source 2.95 yuan/m 3 0.495 yuan
Annual usage amount 4.8 km 3 43.2 ten thousand DEG C
Annual operating fee 14.16 ten thousand 21.38 ten thousand yuan
Operation of the apparatus 35％ 90％
The natural gas had a hydrogen sulfide content of % and an incomplete combustion rate of about 2%, and the environmental benefits obtained from the natural gas emission coefficient and the power generation side structure of Yunnan province are shown in Table 9, in consideration of the power source side energy structure, the emission of carbon dioxide is reduced by about 60% when using electric energy, and SO is reduced by about 60%2And NOx emissions are greatly increased. Natural gas is a non-renewable clean energy source with lower pollutant emissions than coal. Therefore, in Yunnan province with 9.7% of thermal power on the power generation side, electric energy is replacedThe feasibility of natural gas is low, and in places with less water and electricity, the implementation of the scheme needs the adjustment of an energy structure to achieve the aims of energy conservation and emission reduction.
TABLE 9 comparison of environmental benefits of gas and electricity
Contaminants Gas combustion Using electricity
CO2 emissions 92.4t 32.94t
Emission of SO2 68.88kg 12664kg
CO emission amount 1.886t -
NOx emissions - 11025kg
From the above calculations, the economic and environmental benefits of the three alternative approaches to electric energy substitution are summarized as shown in table 10: (since some of the implementation approaches do not take into account the value of some of the benefits, they are set to null, and the data of 0 has negligible effect in real life.)
Benefit before and after electric energy substitution of meter 10
Figure BDA0002243800610000161
The data preprocessing results are shown in table 11, and the three alternative approaches are transversely compared based on the regional energy structure by using the grey correlation degree, so that the main electric energy alternative approach suitable for regional development is obtained according to the comprehensive comparison result of economic benefit and environmental benefit.
TABLE 11 results of pretreatment
Figure BDA0002243800610000162
The correlation results before and after the electric energy substitution approach are shown in fig. 2.
In the graph (a), the values corresponding to the coordinates 1 and 2 are both less than 0 because the annual operating cost after the electric power substitution is higher than that of the conventional coal, and the economic profitability is low. In the aspect of environmental benefit, the pollutant discharge amount after electric energy replacement is lower than that of the traditional coal-fired tobacco flue-curing house, so in the aspect of pollutant discharge, the approximation degree of electric energy replacement is far greater than 0. And the comprehensive approximation degree corresponding to the coordinate 7 is 0.2881, so that the economic and environmental benefits of implementing electric energy instead of coal burning in the Yunnan area are improved. The coordinates 6 in the graphs (b) and (c) represent the combined approximation of the other two alternative energy pathways in the case of the energy characteristics of the yunnan region, 0.3326 and 0.0643, respectively. Therefore, based on the energy structure at the power generation side in the Yunnan area, electricity is most suitable for development to replace oil, then electricity is used for replacing coal, and the lowest benefit is that electricity is used for replacing gas.
The invention provides user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis methods, which aim to improve the electric energy proportion at an energy user terminal, continuously optimize an energy utilization structure, construct an electric energy substitution benefit index from the perspective of a terminal user, construct an electric energy substitution benefit index under the condition of considering pollutants discharged during upstream power generation from specific substitution measures of electricity for coal, electricity for oil and electricity for gas, and calculate the most common substitution modes in three types of substitution paths and the economic and environmental benefits of traditional equipment.
The above description is only intended to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit it; for a person skilled in the art, modifications may be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or some or all of the technical features may be replaced with equivalents; and the modifications or the substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions depart from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1, kinds of user-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method, the benefit analysis method includes the following steps:
step 10) analyzing the economic benefits of electric energy substitution from the aspects of annual cost and full-life cost respectively according to specific substitution measures of three ways of electric energy substitution, namely 'substituting coal by electricity', 'substituting oil by electricity' and 'substituting gas by electricity';
step 20) according to specific alternatives, respectively from CO2、CO、NOX、SO2The pollutant discharge amount is equal, and the environmental benefit of electric energy substitution is analyzed;
step 30) determining an initial sequence matrix according to the results of the indexes calculated in the steps 10) and 20), and carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data;
step 40) performing difference operation by using the data processed in the step 30) according to the grey correlation degree, and calculating a correlation coefficient;
and step 50) carrying out average calculation by using the correlation coefficient obtained in the step 40).
2. The comprehensive analysis method for comprehensive benefits of electric energy substitution facing to user side according to claim 1, wherein in step 10), the economic benefits of electric energy substitution are analyzed from the aspects of annual cost and life-span cost according to the three specific alternatives of electric energy substitution routes of "coal by electricity", "oil by electricity" and "gas by electricity", and the specific analysis steps are as follows:
replacing a coal-fired tobacco curing house with an electric coal-electric tobacco curing house, considering initial investment and annual operation cost, and comparing annual cost before and after replacement by taking the annual cost as a comprehensive index;
annual cost of coal-fired tobacco flue-curing house:
Figure FDA0002243800600000011
annual cost of the electric tobacco baking room:
Figure FDA0002243800600000012
AF is the average annual cost of the tobacco flue-curing house, I is the initial investment cost of the tobacco flue-curing house, r is the benchmark discount rate, NtIs the age, and F is the annual operating cost of the equipment; p is energy price, McoalAnd QeRespectively the coal and electric energy consumption, F1For cost of labor, F2For maintenance costs;
the electricity replaces the oil, namely the electric automobile replaces the fuel automobile, and the purchase cost, the running cost and the consumed energy price are considered, so that the life cycle cost of the traditional fuel automobile and the life cycle cost of the electric automobile are compared;
the total life cost of the fuel automobile is as follows:
Figure FDA0002243800600000021
the whole life cost of the electric automobile:
Figure FDA0002243800600000022
AF is the life-cycle cost of the vehicle, I is the acquisition cost of the vehicle, R is the maintenance cost, FoilAnd FEVFuel and charging costs, respectively; q represents the energy consumption of the automobile per unit distance, p represents the average price of energy in the season, and D represents the average mileage of the automobile in the whole life cycle;
replacing a gas boiler with an electric boiler, considering initial investment and annual operation cost, and comparing the annual cost of the traditional gas boiler with that of the electric boiler:
annual gas boiler cost:
annual electric boiler cost:
AF is the annual cost of the equipment, I is the initial investment cost of the equipment, r is the benchmark discount rate, NtThe service life of the equipment is F, and the annual operation cost of the equipment is F; hiFor the daily average demand of the user, SgasFor heating value of fuel gas, ηgasFor gas equipment efficiency, T is the number of days used and p is the energy price.
3. The comprehensive user-oriented electric energy substitution benefit analysis method according to claim 1, wherein in step 20), CO is selected according to specific substitution measures2、CO、NOX、SO2And (3) waiting for the emission of pollutants, analyzing the environmental benefit of electric energy substitution, and specifically analyzing the following steps:
environmental protection indexes of fire coal:
the carbon emission coefficient of 1 ton of standard coal is 0.67 (standard of national institute of development and improvement), and the reduction of carbon emission is:
ECoal＝0.67×MCoal(7)
the carbon dioxide emission is as follows:
Figure FDA0002243800600000031
Figure FDA0002243800600000035
mC＝12g/mol，CO、NOx、SO2the emission amount of pollutants such as smoke dust and the like is calculated according to the corresponding emission coefficient in the pollutant emission coefficient and emission amount calculation method;
the environmental protection index of the fuel oil is as follows:
Figure FDA0002243800600000032
Figure FDA0002243800600000036
ENOX-oil、ECO-oilis the fuel automobile CO per unit distance2、SO2、NOXAverage emission of CO, λ is the complete combustion rate of the fuel, B is the average fuel consumption per unit distance, ηC、ηs、ηNRespectively represent the contents of carbon, sulfur and nitrogen in the gasoline (η)C＝90％，ηS＝0.1％，ηN0.02%), β, the conversion rate of nitrogen in fuel oil is 35%;
environmental protection indexes of the fuel gas:
Figure FDA0002243800600000033
Figure FDA0002243800600000037
ECO-gasis unit of natural gas CO2、SO2Average CO emission, V natural gas consumption, delta natural gas complete combustion rate ηH2SThe hydrogen sulfide content is 0.05 percent;
electric energy replaces environmental indexes:
the thermal power plant produces 8.5kgSO per tons of standard coal2，7.4kgNOX：
Figure FDA0002243800600000034
ηcoalThe ratio of thermal power generation in the total power generation in the season is 9.7 percent, and lambda isCoalThe average standard coal consumption in thermal power generation is 0.32kg/kWh and PERepresents an electric quantity, EC-IThe method is characterized in that the method is used for actually reducing the pollutant discharge amount for the coal burning amount during upstream power generation as shown in the formula (12):
Figure FDA0002243800600000041
4. the comprehensive user-oriented electric energy replacement benefit analysis method according to claim 1, wherein in step 30), the initial sequence matrix is determined according to the results of the indexes calculated in step 10) and step 20), and the data is dimensionless processed as follows:
there are n evaluation objects, each evaluation object has m evaluation indexes, generate the data sequence matrix:
Figure FDA0002243800600000042
the reference sequence is constructed using the optimal values of the indices:
X′0＝(x'0(1),x'0(2),L,x'0(n)) (14)
the Min-Max standardization method is used for carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the data:
Figure FDA0002243800600000043
obtaining a matrix:
5. the user-side-oriented electric energy replacement comprehensive benefit analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the step 40) of performing a difference operation using the data processed in the step 30) with gray correlation and calculating the correlation coefficient comprises the following specific steps:
calculating the absolute difference value of indexes corresponding to each evaluation index sequence and the reference sequence:
Δi(k)＝|x0(k)-xi(k)| (17)
i＝0,1,2,…,n；k＝,1,2,…,m
determining a maximum difference value and a minimum difference value:
Figure FDA0002243800600000045
calculating the correlation coefficient of each comparison sequence and the corresponding element of the reference sequence, wherein rho is a resolution coefficient and the value is 0.5,
Figure FDA0002243800600000051
obtaining a correlation coefficient matrix:
6. the user-side-oriented electric energy substitution comprehensive benefit analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the step 50) uses the correlation coefficient obtained in the step 40) to perform mean value calculation in the following way:
Figure FDA0002243800600000053
and taking different action sizes of the evaluation indexes in the evaluation into consideration, and performing weighted calculation on the correlation coefficient, wherein wkWeight for the k-th index:
Figure FDA0002243800600000054
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